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US-Canada relations under Donald Trump 2.0

GSDN

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February 13, 2025

By: Jai Verma, Research Analyst, GSDN

The United States are now officially in a Trade War, as new substantial tariffs on both sides will be in place from February 04, 2025 (Tuesday). The US President laid down the order of imposing 25% tariff on Canadian Goods sent to the US and 10% on Canadian energy. A few hours later Justin Trudeau retaliated “tonight I am announcing Canada will be to the US trade action with 25% tariffs against US $1,555 billion worth of American goods that’s nearly a quarter of everything America sends north of the border from Florida orange juice to household appliances, we are considering with the provinces and territories several non-tariff measures including some relating to critical minerals energy procurement and other partnerships.” All this while the two leaders haven’t even spoken to each other since Donald Trump’s inauguration and a potential Trade War has been on the horizon for some time the question is where do things go from here?

Trade Wars and Economic Tensions

The global trade landscape has taken a hit over, the US president Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs hitting imports from Mexico China and Canada. He’s also suspending the D-Minimis exemption for Chinese Imports, this exemption previously allowed small value shipments under $800 to enter the US duty-free.

Why the suspension?

Trump’s Administration cited National Security concerns with China, Mexico and Canada all under scrutiny the US is battling a deadly opioid crisis with fentanyl linked to 75,000 overdose deaths in 2023. Trump believes China and Mexico are supplying the chemicals used to make these synthetic opioids, by tightening trade rules he aims to enhance screening and crack down on illegal drug inflows. Platforms like Sheen and Temu have been shipping products directly to the US consumers without tariffs, therefore removing D-Minimis exemption forces Chinese importers to pay up levelling the playing field for US businesses.

Trump argues that the US has been losing billions of dollars due to unfair trade practices, his message make it in the United States or pay the price. Canada and Mexico retaliated with their own counter tariffs including 25% tax on US$ 30 billion worth of US goods while Beijing is preparing to challenge Trump’s move at the World Trade Organization signalling that more economic retaliation could be on the way.

Stock markets have dropped sharply across the globe amid fears of a full-blown trade War, the US dollar is strengthening while the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Chinese yen are falling even cryptocurrencies are affected with Bitcoin down over 4% now. Trump has hinted at tariffs on the European Union claiming unfair trade imbalances but for now the UK is spared.

Long-Term Impact on US-Canada Relations

The Bank of Canada just made its first-interest rate decision since a trade war with the US became a real possibility, they cut their overnight interest rate (a quarter % point) which is great news for borrowing money but they also acknowledged that a storm may be coming.

“We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens” was Trump’s promised tariffs have the potential to throw Canada’s economy into a tail spin tariff in the case of retracted significant trade conflict it would badly hurt economic activity in Canada. There is still a ton of uncertainty about how this will play out but the Bank of Canada did lay out a worst-case scenario. The Bank of Canada predicts that this would cause a significant decline in the volume of exports from Canada to the US which makes sense because tariffs are just taxes paid for by the businesses doing the buying. So if American companies suddenly have to pay more for the same Canadian goods because there’s a 25% tax on everything. In first case, Canadian might decide to buy less stuff to avoid the tariffs all together.

What tariffs do?

The more expensive product make come up with ways of finding something cheaper, efficient and closer to home (decrease anybody’s willingness to buy). If demand starts decreasing for Canadian exports the net value exports could drop too, when less demand for product the price of that product falls as well and Bank of Canada is mentioning that would happen here whether anyone exporting to the US or not.

The Bank of Canada’s next prediction according to these factors could cause Canada’s GDP to fall pretty significantly they acknowledge that the government could mitigate this by taking some of that tariff money that they start charging and pumping it back into the economy either to businesses or consumers themselves but still this would have a very material effect would have a very severe effect on economic activity. The Bank of Canada has cryptic opting not to give any real indication as a lot of uncertainty and it just didn’t seem very useful to provide guidance and when exactly how that’s going to play out through the economy, the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates when the economy weakens because if lower rates make it cheaper for Canadians to borrow money which makes it more likely that they’ll spend money and that can help stimulate a struggling economy, but it’s not so simple because it’s about higher prices at the same time growth will be weak inflation will be higher because that’s the direct impact of tariffs when commodities like fruits and vegetables get more expensive (inflation).

How will the markets be impacted?

The immediate impacts for his tariffs target Canada, Mexico and China. These are the top three exporters to the United States. Canada sends them oil, gas, aluminium. Mexico sends computers wiring and medical instruments as both Nations send cars and auto parts.

As per 2017 Canadian govt report talks about the interconnected auto manufacturing situation car parts across the US-Canada border six times before a vehicle is finished but what happens when blanket tariffs are in place then each of these transfers attracts an additional fee raising the price of the car multiple times over, and basically destroying the industry in its current form. It’s a similar situation with Mexico raw materials go to the US they are turned into parts then sent to Mexico for assembly and the final cars are then sold back in the US. This system will break too and this is just the automobile sector. The agricultural sector in both Mexico and Canada are intrinsically linked with the US as well

The Canadian agricultural ministry describes a typical American breakfast wheat grown in Canada processed in the US cranberries grown in Canada processed in the US same with oats strawberries and pork this breakfast plate does not work without free trade not in the current prices at the current prices anyway with Trump’s incoming tariffs and then Trudeau’s retaliatory ones the price of this all American breakfast will go through the roof in the short run anyway the us could try and substitute its dependence on Canadian agricultural goods. Maybe Americans can do without the famous Canadian maple syrup but the concern of tropical food from Mexico bananas and tomatoes and the controversial avocados which can’t grow in the American climate not at the same scale 63% of US vegetable imports come from Mexico about 50% of all fruits and nuts as well they come from Mexico. So with the new tariffs Americans should get ready for a less healthy diet or be prepared to shell out far more prices will almost certainly rise and it’s not the exporting countries that will bear them tariffs are paid by importers in the United States the people importing the cars, fruits, wood, oil these are US-based entities they will pay a fee to the US government to sell these products in the US market.

What usually happens is that they pass on the costs to the end consumers the customers the average American people basically it’s a new domestic tax American money will make its way to the government offers just because they want to keep eating (Mexican tomatoes) there are a lot of counterarguments to this one is that people will opt for domestic Goods instead they will buy.

American another argument is that the importing companies will take a hit on their profits they will absorb the Tariff costs not pass them on to customers both these arguments rely on a fair retail corporate benevolence think about it why wouldn’t a domestic car company hike their own prices foreign cars just got more expensive an American company can also raise their prices by just a little less than their foreign counterparts
The domestic company will start raking in extra profits while still being marginally more competitive than the foreign brand either customer who loses and the second argument about importers absorbing the Tariff costs which company do bet on to do that which company is so kind as to take a profit hit to Shield American customers
The last argument in support of tariffs is the US dollar price the US dollar value will surge it’s already happening tariff supporters say this automatically makes foreign Goods cheaper countering the inflationary effects of tariffs this also helps improve trade deficits. Now, this argument also relies on an assumption that the dollar value will rise in proportion to the costs neatly cancelling out any price Rises but really when does anything happen.

So, the dollar value increase will help soften the blow but it probably won’t erase the effects completely meanwhile the dollar rise affects the rest of the world take India for example, the rupee has hit a record low it fell below 87 Rupees to a dollar, this means India’s imports got more expensive and exports became less valuable. Almost every country will experience this without deals to trade bilaterally in local currencies. Many countries are at the mercy of dollar fluctuations but local currency deals come with their own risks.

Trump has threatened tariffs on countries who ditch the dollar BRICS nations could face 100% tariffs he said and this includes India. so all software and service sales to the US could suddenly become uncompetitive so far Donald Trump has just targeted Canada Mexico and China his next Target could be Europe and then possibly the BRICS Nations basically everyone that the US runs trade deficits with everyone exporting things to the United States. So, until unless the world finds a way to bypass the US, many are in for a rough.

‘Asian NATO’ in Cold Storage: But what about an ‘Economic NATO’?

GSDN

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February 12, 2025

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By: Rishya Dharmani, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar outrightly rejected calls for an Asian NATO, reaffirming that Indian foreign policy calculus does not count alliance building as a foreign policy tool. Similar responses were made from South East Asian capitals with even the US seemingly reluctant. This development comes even as US ambassador to Japan Rahm Emmanuel had proposed a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) like grouping to resist Chinese “economic coercion”. A prominent reason to eschew coordinated actions is that different security perceptions and dependencies vis-à-vis China preclude harmonised actions resisting predatory policies. For Euro-Atlantic countries, a “quartet of chaos” (Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea) are systemically pushing the envelope on security concerns.

China’s grey zone tactics in geopolitical and geoeconomic spheres entail the use of hybrid coercive diplomacy. Rasmussen Report presented at the 2022 NATO summit sketched an economic NATO highlighting the link between strategic and economic interests in the background of retreating globalisation. It suggested the inclusion of an “economic guarantee” in NATO’s architecture with options including direct and indirect sanctions and import tariffs. Other measures may include blacklisting of firms, especially State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), coordinated WTO action, and favourable market coordination with partner economies.

Rudiments of this policy are already in operation, pursued by different states. Several Western states deny technology and dual-use exports to Russia and China. European Union (EU), China and the US pursue punitive economic sanctions to reign in adversarial nations. Even protectionist measures of the developed world under net zero commitments can be construed as penalising growth for developing countries. When former UK PM Liz Truss suggested an economic NATO to ‘collectively defend our prosperity’, she probably did not have the global south as a target in mind, which is struggling to respond to a disproportionately higher burden of climate change impacts and socio-economic needs of burgeoning populations.

NATO in 1949 had established a Coordination Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (Co Com) to stymie the availability of military-grade technology to Warsaw Pact members. But the marriage of strategic imperatives with economic measures has weaponised trade, something especially milked by China. The flag follows trade as the state of the economy has political and social colours. This is clear in the Ukrainian war, where the Russian war economy is sustaining itself with a little (or a lot) of help from friendly states while the West attempts to weaken it.

China’s grey zone tactics in geopolitical and geoeconomic spheres entail the use of punitive diplomacy. Its irridentist area denial measures in the South China Sea fall short of inviting war but have the region at the edge. It had blatantly used strong-arm tactics using economic coercion when it banned Norwegian salmon imports after the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Chinese dissident Lio Xiaobo. It has pursued retributive measures against countries in the Pacific and in Europe (Lithuania) when they attempted to strengthen ties with Taiwan. Another illustration is Russia’s ‘gunboat diplomacy’ in blocking grain shipments from Odesa port. The isolationist measures of the West to weaken Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian economies are already in operation, albeit with questionable success.

NATO as a collective defence alliance is widely seen as a remnant of Cold War bloc politics, which has no place in an interconnected and interdependent world. But the weaponisation of geo-economical tools is also a reality. Countries, including India, are racing to brace and shield their economies from China Shock 2.0. The infiltration of cheap Chinese exports in electronics, iron and steel, and Electric Vehicles (EVs) is deepening economic chaos across the world as job losses and industrial disruptions amount.

Sophisticated cyber-attacks, surveillance infiltration in technology products (Huawei-5G controversy), and social media manipulation of election results point to a messy cocktail of new-age warfare. Economic NATO is relevant not only for Euro Atlantic engagement with China and Russia but also in India’s neighbourhood. Iran is using Houthis as a proxy to disrupt trade by attacking vessels supposedly affiliated with Israel and the West. China’s String of Pearls threatens India’s territorial integrity; its vast trade imbalance and routing of exports to ASEAN to dump goods is hurting the Indian economy.

While alliance building and camp politics are relics of the past, strategic pluri-laterals like QUAD, Supply Chains Resilience Initiative, and Minerals Security Finance Initiative to redirect control, supply and benefits from resources of future to trusted geographies, lattice-like structures for cooperation proposed by President Biden are key for US to secure partnerships in a world that increasingly seeks strategic autonomy. Decoupling and friendshoring are new foreign policy maxims as there is a reworking of Clausewitz’s dictum to economics is a continuation of war by other means. China is entangling India’s neighbours into coils of indebtedness, siphoning off strategic assets.

An article in Global Times concludes that securitisation of Asia with a NATO-like structure is difficult, ‘economic NATO’ even more so. China’s paranoia at the prospect of facing collective punitive actions for its maritime intransigence in the South China Sea is clear when it called QUAD “ocean froth”. However, as a bulwark, as the largest trading partner to many countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, Pacific – it has deeply institutionalised trade and investment networks. It claims that Europe’s autonomy has been compromised by its dependence on the US for security and economy, while South East Asia, especially ASEAN, values its autonomy and independent foreign policy manoeuvrability as seen most recently in the balancing act between China and Western allies by the new Vietnamese administration.

And yet, China’s dominance in key industries has enabled it to coordinate the use of informational, economic and economic tactics to pursue a rebalancing strategy both at home and abroad. It selectively limits or bans exports of critical raw materials that its adversaries are dependent on – careful not to upset the supply chains, which it yet does not have full control of.

Its “dual circulation” seeks to liven up consumer appetite and boost demand within. The endgame seems to be to create an economic security architecture to bind dependent and client states with its own strategic goals. The three global initiatives, namely, the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI), are constituents of a meta-diplomatic exercise to lay the ideational foundation of the next Great Power. Such partnerships are lucrative to shady autocratic rulers who resist democratising and need a deep-pocketed financier to bail them out of gross economic mismanagement.

Proposals ranging from D10 (G7, Australia, India, South Korea), a German suggestion of the ‘Alliance of Democracies’, Treaty of Allied Market Economies underscore the need for sustained and collective actions against the use of penal economic policies. This goes the other way, too, as Indian companies made windfalls trading with Russian oil bypassing SWIFT. Even as some members of NATO pursue divergent foreign policies, there is no hard and fast rule that an economic Article 5 will constrain legroom for policy motility. India is already navigating its economic goals within strategic bottlenecks created by geoeconomic disruptions by economic mini-laterals. India has a case to balance economic ties with the West while advocating for a more egalitarian economic order- a delicate act since it needs to resist attempts to promote Renminbi within BRICS while pursuing de-dollarisation.

This is why commitments of ‘one for all, all for one’ in the economic sphere seem implausible at the moment for India. But a low-hanging fruit in the context of the Indo-Pacific is rule-based regulatory regimes to foster just multilateral lending practices, responsible AI, and climate-sensitive growth could be the way forward. The non-compete clauses with partner nations, restrictions on procurement from aggressor’s firms (Press Note 3), and export controls are some of the suggested means. While pacts and alliances are a thing of the past, the VUCA world is witnessing disorder and chaos while the currency of multilateralism weakens. The IMEC corridor, if it survives the Israel-Gaza conflict, will be a shot in the arm for India and its partners. The demands of Industrial Revolution 2.0 call for a green-clean-AI transition needing collaboration with concurring states to gain a foothold in global supply chains and evolving strategic reworking of world order.

Whether an economic NATO could be possible in a Trump Presidency is a moot question. Overlapping memberships of mini-laterals in the Indo-Pacific have created mind-boggling geopolitical permutations. For instance, Indonesia is a member of SQUAD, China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and BRICS+, with all three groupings espousing some agenda that is contrary to the other two’s goals. SQUAD strives to maintain the US-steered hegemonic balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, whereas BRICS+ aims to upend it. Despite the US being in a pseudo security alliance QUAD with India, it has threatened 100% tariffs were it to pursue a BRICS currency plan. Another more serious problem is that President Trump considers “tariffs as the most beautiful word in the English language”. He aims to disrupt the liberal internationalist agenda of globalised trade networks and politico-economic collaborations that are the bedrock of US hegemony abroad.

Decades of tangible cooperation and goodwill is wiped off by bombastic tirades and threats of punitive measures on long-term allies – fastening the demise of US preponderance. For US allies and partners, one of the very first acts of the Trump administration to withdraw certain federal aid domestically and internationally questions the rationale of investing in building connections with the US. If there is no systemic stability or long-term returns built into cultivating and maintaining beneficial relationships, any multilateralist idea like economic NATO will remain only a mere idea. As ‘America Comes Home’ and seeks retrenchment and internal balancing to counteract competitor states. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently lambasted China for having “lied, cheated, hacked, and stolen their way to global superpower status, at our (the United States’s) expense”. The so-called Peaceful Rise was just a garb to hide behind the Deng Xiaoping dictum of ‘hide your strength and bide your time’. Having arguably milked the architecture of globalisation to its fullest possible extent, the nature of the China threat, whether limited China capturing global manufacturing spaces or broader seismic shifts with repercussions in the fundamental balance of power, should be probed. The ‘AI Sputnik’ moment of DeepSeek shaking the core of American tech hegemony is a wake-up call that there is a vast gulf between real and reputational economic dominance. By building a foundational LLM model from scratch and using less advanced computing chips – China has planted a volte-face to elaborate sanctions and the technology denial regime of the United States.

The idea of economic NATO sounds like a geoeconomic tool per se but actually is a potent geopolitical counter to disruptive and revisionist forces. By privileging a transactional approach to international relations, the Trump Presidency may do more harm than simply a lame-duck agenda of business as usual. And yet, there are green shoots. A nuanced analysis of Trump 1.0 brings to light, bold cooperative experiments that could if pursued proactively, offer a holistic counterbalance to China’s threat. For countries like India – favourable relations with China and Iran are a must, complicating its participation in any such US-led attempt to ‘punish’ the Russia-Iran-China trilateral. For other US partner states, unilateralist and frankly illegal measures of demanding sovereign territories like Panama, Greenland, or even Canada itself is not only a contravention of international law but irreparably harms the reputational aspect of US leadership.

What, then, are the prospects of an economic NATO? Should we in India be asking more fundamental questions of whether we can afford to openly align against a (group of) country(ies) when we are heavily import-dependent in several critical sectors like oil and natural gas, pulses, solar modules, EV batteries to name a few sunrise focus areas. Instead of relying on ad-hoc and knee-jerk protectionism by eschewing trade deals like CPTPP because they harm nascent domestic industries or even mixing geopolitics with economics (as in economic NATO) – India might mollycoddle and ‘save’ some elements of the Indian economy. But it cannot rely on the friendly umbrella of like-minded countries to trade with as trade and economic policy tools are increasingly weaponised by not even sparing close affiliates. The hard way forward of next-generation political-economic reforms to ignite the animal spirits and strengthen economic resilience and competitiveness is the only way forward which can be supplemented by geo-economic partnerships.

Development and Deployment of Autonomous Weapons in Defence and Security

GSDN

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February 11, 2025

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By: Munira Qaiser, Research Analyst, GSDN

Autonomous weapons are weapons that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology to attack its target, they can make decisions and act on their own without needing any human intervention and decide when to shoot a weapon and which direction to move. These weapons are pre-programmed to kill a particular “target profile” using sensor data such as movements or facial recognition after being deployed into an environment and the moment the algorithm matches; it fires and kills the target. The use of AI development and innovation aimed to create programs like human enhancement and lethal autonomous weapon systems to decrease the overall risk to soldiers. According to the US Congress, “artificial intelligence” refers to a machine-based system capable of making predictions, recommendations, or decisions that affect the real world, based on a set of objectives defined by humans.

The main benefit of autonomous weapons is their ability to perform their task with utter precision that is too with minimum collateral damage and human casualties and do not need any human support to get it done. It is like once it is operated with human help the rest of the task will be carried out on its own without any support. Considering the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in making predictions and informed decisions, along with robotics and autonomics, the future of battlefield tactics for soldiers is poised for significant change.

Yet, these advantages can also present significant challenges and raise concerns, particularly regarding the use of autonomous weapons. On keen consideration, weapons that rely on algorithms to make lethal decisions without human oversight are not just immoral but also pose a serious threat to national and global security.

IMMORAL: Algorithms cannot understand the worth of human life; therefore, they should never be entrusted with the authority to determine who lives or dies. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres concurs that machines possessing the capability and autonomy to end lives without human intervention are politically unacceptable, morally abhorrent, and ought to be prohibited under international law.

THREAT TO SECURITY: Algorithmic decision-making enables weapons to operate with the speed, cost-effectiveness, and scalability of software. This could have highly destabilizing effects on national and international security, as it introduces risks such as proliferation, rapid escalation, unpredictability, and the potential development of weapons of mass destruction.

LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY: “Who is responsible?” handing over these autonomous weapons always raises this question, if anything goes against the ethics considering their tendency and unpredictable nature then who shall be considered accountable for the use and action of force?

To address these concerns and risks associated with autonomous weapons, there are legal and ethical frameworks to govern their use. As with those efforts, to regulate the use of autonomous weapons International Committee on the Red Cross (ICRC) suggests that states should follow certain rules and legal implications to avoid great loss.

Autonomous weapons that are hard to read which implies their designs and effects are too complex to understand, predict and explain should be banned. This encompasses weapons that acquire knowledge about their targets during operation, potentially extending to all autonomous weapons controlled by machine learning algorithms.Top of Form

Autonomous weapons that are intended to attack people directly should be prohibited, both in their use and design.

Lastly, there is a strong need for strict restrictions on designing and usage of autonomous weapons that do not comply with law and other ethical concerns to mitigate the risks mentioned above.

Overall nature of warfare is evolving, with the machines now able to make decisions on the battlefield that were previously solely within the purview of humans. However, this shift does not diminish the importance of human control over using autonomous weapons. International humanitarian law (IHL) mandates that humans must be able to directly intervene in the operation of weapons systems during an attack. This requires ensuring accountability, oversight, and the ability to make nuanced decisions in complex and unpredictable combat situations, thereby safeguarding against potential violations of IHL and ethical considerations.

This perspective is grounded in the idea that humans are fundamentally responsible for the legal and moral obligations regarding the conduct of warfare. The Group of Governmental Experts on Emerging Technologies in the Lethal Autonomous Weapons System (GGE) expressed the stance in guiding principles (c) of its 2019 Guiding Principles.

“Human-machine interaction, which can vary in its forms and implementation throughout a weapon’s life cycle, should ensure that the potential use of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) complies with relevant international law, particularly international humanitarian law. When determining the quality and extent of human-machine interaction, several factors should be taken into account, including the operational context and the characteristics and capabilities of the weapons system as a whole.” This quote is from the ‘Report of the 2019 Session of the Group of Governmental Experts on Emerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems’ by the Group of Governmental Experts on Emerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, dated September 25, 2019.

Human intervention would involve a variety of actions by an operator, traditionally linked with operating a weapon. These actions could include manually selecting a target, firing a weapon, stopping an attack, or other activities that are legally significant. To take a present-day example, Israel’s Aerospace industry ‘Harpy’ loitering munition automates several tasks that would require direct human intervention. These tasks include assessing potential enemy radiation signatures, aiming the munition at the radiation source, and stopping an attack if circumstances change. These tasks are still carried out as part of the attack process by the operating state through Harpy’s control system software, but not directly by human operators.

The ethical implications of autonomous weapons underscore the urgent need for international cooperation and regulations. The United Nations (UN) emphasizes the necessity of clear restrictions on all forms of autonomous weapons to ensure compliance with international law and ethical standards. These restrictions should encompass limitations on where, when, and for how long autonomous weapons can be deployed, the types of targets they can engage, the level of force they can exert, and the requirements for effective human oversight, intervention, and deactivation.

Despite increasing reports of testing and deployment of various autonomous weapon systems, it is not too late to take action. Over more than a decade, discussions within the United Nations, including in the Human Rights Council, the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, and the General Assembly, have laid the groundwork for explicit prohibition and restrictions. Now, states must build upon this foundation and engage in constructive negotiations to establish new rules that effectively address the real threats posed by these weapon technologies.

In conclusion, the development and deployment of autonomous weapons present profound ethical and security dilemmas that require immediate global attention and regulations. While these weapons offer potential advantages in terms of precision and reduced risk to military personnel, their capacity to make life-and-death decisions independently raises significant risks.

International collaboration is indispensable in establishing clear regulations and prohibitions on autonomous weapons to ensure adherence to international law and ethical standards. Initiatives such as those proposed by the United Nations and the International Committee of Red Cross, aimed at prohibiting certain types of autonomous weapons and imposing strict restrictions on others, are crucial steps forward.

States must take decisive action to tackle these challenges and avert the destabilizing impacts that autonomous weapons could have on global security. Upholding principles of human dignity and accountability in warfare is paramount. It is essential to ensure that technological advancements serve to enhance, rather than endanger, the safety and well-being of all individuals, both on and off the battlefield.

Book Review: Why Kunan Poshpora?

GSDN

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February 10, 2025

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By: Komal Verma & Haroon Imtiaz

Book cover of “Why Kunan Poshpora”?: source Authors

Young writers Komal Verma and Haroon Imtiaz from Jammu and Kashmir are set to release their book, “Why Kunan Poshpora”? which presents an alternative perspective on the controversial 1991 mass rape allegations against the Indian Army.

The book, expected to be published in March 2025, challenges long-held narratives and aims to uncover what the authors believe is the real story behind the incident. The duo spent two weeks in Kunan Poshpora, interacting with locals and gathering firsthand accounts.

According to them, many villagers claimed that no cordon-and-search operation took place in Poshpora on the night of February 23-24, 1991. Instead, they allege that militants, disguised as soldiers, were responsible for the crimes—a tactic reportedly used to instil fear and tarnish the Army’s image.

One of the most remarkable aspects of this book is that Komal Verma, an NCC Cadet from Kathua, is making history as she becomes the youngest author from Jammu and Kashmir. She is not only showcasing her exceptional writing skills but is also pursuing her graduation alongside her literary journey. Her initiative, “Sab Khairiyat”, has added a meaningful dimension to this book, highlighting the humanitarian efforts of the Indian Army and fostering dialogue with the people.

This book is a testament to the capabilities of a budding author from Kathua, proving that young minds from the region are capable of producing powerful narratives. Komal Verma’s dedication and courage in taking on such a significant topic reflects the strength and determination of our country’s young women. She stands as an inspiration for all girls across the nation, showing that with passion and perseverance, they too can make a difference.

Global Aerospace Giants bring Cutting Edge Technology to Aero India 2025

GSDN

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February 9, 2025

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By: Suman Sharma

European defence manufacturers are all set to woo the Indian market with their cutting-edge technology on display at the 15^th edition of the biennial Indian airshow – Aero India 2025 at Bengaluru.

Saab from Sweden Brings Gripen E

Swedish aerospace and land systems giant – the Saab Group is presenting a wide portfolio of products and systems for the air, land and sea domains at Aero India 2025 at Bengaluru from 10-14 February 2025. Taking center stage will be the Full Scale Replica (FSR) of Gripen E and the Gripen E Cockpit Simulator. On display will also be Carl-Gustaf® M4, to be made in India at the manufacturing facility Saab is establishing in Jhajhar, Haryana.

“We look forward to wide ranging discussions with the Indian Air Force on our Gripen E offer. We will also be engaging with Indian industry for Make in India as well as for discussions on expanding our sourcing from Indian companies which have emerged as suppliers to the world’s foremost aerospace companies,” said Mats Palmberg, Chairman and Managing Director, Saab India.

Adding further Palmberg said, “Aero India 2025 comes at a crucial juncture of global developments, leading to a greater focus on defence capabilities as well as on developing self-reliance along with the need for robust and modern technology. We are fully committed to supporting the Indian government’s Atmanirbhar approach to national defence capability. To that end, Saab is setting up a manufacturing facility for Carl-Gustaf M4 in India, further strengthening production in the country. The facility will support the production of Carl-Gustaf M4 for the Indian Armed Forces as well as components for users of the system around the world. Saab will also be partnering with Indian sub-suppliers and the products manufactured in the facility will fully meet the requirements of Make in India.”

Saab will be showcasing the latest technologies which are changing defence and security planning, deployment and future force readiness. Teams from India, Sweden, South Africa and other countries would be sharing Saab’s wide range of products, solutions, plans and thoughts about how Saab can provide the armed forces of India with products and collaborate with the Indian defence industry.

Products that Saab will be exhibiting at the airshow are:

Gripen E – The world’s most modern fighter, Gripen E, combines exceptional operational performance, a highly advanced networked warfare capability at a whole new level, superior sensor fusion, unique BVR features and an adaptability for new threats that is a decade ahead of any other fighter, making it a true game changer. The Saab offer for the Indian Air Force (IAF) combines cost efficiency with true and extensive transfer of technology.

Carl-Gustaf M4 – is a man-portable multi-role weapon system that provides high tactical flexibility through its wide range of ammunition types. It is extremely light-weight (less than seven kgs), and has improved ergonomics for the gunner which reduces action time and aids accuracy. The new M4 meets the needs of modern conflict environments while offering compatibility with future innovations. The Carl-Gustaf system has been in service with the Indian Army since 1976. Through its wide variety of ammunition, Carl-Gustaf has established itself as the main shoulder launched weapon in the Indian armed forces

AT4CS AST – is a lightweight, man-portable, unguided and fully disposable weapon system. AT4 is optimised for ease of operation and offers maximum versatility and ease of use amongst the family of AT4 weapons. Saab’s AT4 weapon has been selected by the Indian armed forces and will be used by the Indian Army and the IAF.

The Next-Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon (NLAW) system – is the shoulder-launched, Overfly Top Attack, anti-tank missile system that makes it the true tank killer for the infantry which operate dismounted in all environments including built up areas.

Ground Combat Indoor Gunnery Trainer – for ground combat weapon systems, to shape the troops with the best and realistic training which the Indoor Trainer provides by uniting an exact replica of weapons with a close-to-real-life virtual environment.

The AUV62 System – is the latest generation of Saab modular AUV systems. The AUV62-MR for mine reconnaissance has a high-resolution side-looking sonar. It can autonomously search for and identify sea mines with a large area search capability. High-resolution images give excellent situational awareness and data.

Integrated Defence Aids Suite (IDAS) – is a fully integrated end-to-end solution that provides protection for airborne platforms. IDAS includes radar warning, missile approach warning and laser warning sensors. Its advanced sensors coupled with its analysis tool is able to create advance threat libraries to classify the threat. Key benefits include instantaneous response to multiple threats providing an advantage for situational awareness. In India IDAS is so far integrated on the ALH Dhruv helicopter.

Land Electronic Defence System (LEDS) – is an integrated, modular, active protection system combining a laser warning system and effector control, providing armoured combat vehicles with vital situational awareness of laser threats with manual or fully automatic responses against threats.

r-TWR Deployable – is a deployable, digital tower that provides high availability, mission-to-mission modularity and flexibility. It is mission ready within an hour and can be operated remotely from a secure location at a base or connected to a centralised facility hundreds of miles away, keeping military personnel safe. The r-TWR Deployable can be integrated with various Saab capabilities depending on customer needs. This includes TactiCall Voice Communication System for safe and cyber secure communications, Giraffe 1X lightweight multi-mission surveillance radar with Drone Tracker capability, Sirius Compact passive surveillance for tactical applications and Barracuda camouflage for a reduced multispectral signature.

Safran To Showcase its cutting-edge Innovations at Aero India 2025

French Safran, a global leader in aerospace, defence, and space technology, is set to make a significant impact at Aero India 2025, by exhibiting its advanced solutions and innovations at its booth located in Hall B, showcasing its commitment to driving technological excellence and fostering partnerships in India’s aerospace and defence ecosystem.

With a rich legacy of engineering excellence, Safran operates across 30 countries and is a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing state-of-the-art aircraft engines, equipment, and defence solutions. Safran powers both military and civil aviation with its technologies, including LEAP engines developed by CFM International in a (50/50) joint venture between Safran Aircraft Engines and GE Aerospace.

In India, Safran has established itself as a key partner in supporting national security and driving civil aviation growth. The group has a robust footprint with 17 facilities with over 2400 employees, through significant partnerships with Indian defence and aerospace organisations.

Safran has been instrumental in developing and supplying critical technologies for military platforms and has contributed to India’s civil aviation sector by collaborating with Indian industries. The aerospace leader has been the pioneer for engine MRO in India both for helicopter engines and commercial LEAP engines.

Aligned with the ‘Make in India’ vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Safran is a staunch advocate of indigenous manufacturing and technology transfer. With significant investments in India including the establishment of cutting-edge manufacturing and maintenance facilities, Safran is committed to nurturing local talent and advancing India’s aerospace ecosystem.

At Aero India 2025, Safran will reinforce its vision for India’s self-reliance in aerospace and defence by showcasing its comprehensive portfolio of products and solutions. These include advanced jet and turboshaft engine technologies, avionics and Automated Test Equipment, and landing gear systems among other products.

MBDA missiles on a Rafael: source Author

MBDA’s Pitch for Make in India

As part of its strong commitment towards ‘Make in India’, for over five decades, European MBDA Missile Systems Ltd, has been delivering battle-winning capabilities to the Indian armed forces, closely collaborating with a wide Indian industrial ecosystem, including the joint venture with Indian private defence firm – Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Indian SMEs and Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) such as Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).

MBDA has a crucial advantage in developing and producing state-of-the-art products by encompassing the best skills and technologies from across borders. Their track record of partnership also makes MBDA uniquely suited as a partner for India that can enhance Indian self-reliance and sovereignty – as can be seen from the successful Make in India of over 50,000 MBDA-designed missiles in partnership with Indian industry till date.

Several emblematic complex weapon systems will be showcased during Aero India 2025, beginning with the air domain at the MBDA stand, where visitors will be able to see the different weapon systems that arm India’s Dassault Rafale combat aircraft, especially the Meteor missile system. Widely recognised as a game changer for air combat, this beyond visual range air-to-air missile is powered by a unique rocket-ramjet motor giving it far more engine power, for much longer than any other missile. In other words, its no-escape zone is many times greater than any other air-to-air missile.

Also, in the air domain attendees will be able to view the ASRAAM air combat missile that is delivering India’s Next Generation Close Combat Missile capability. The fastest close combat missile in the world, IAF Jaguar and Tejas fighter jets are the first to gain this vital system for ensuring India’s dominance in air combat.

On the MBDA stand’s maritime domain, a focus will be on Sea Ceptor naval air defence system that is being offered to the Indian Navy for its VL SRSAM requirement through a joint venture. Visitors to Aero India will be able to see the futuristic technologies featured within Sea Ceptor and how they would provide Indian sailors with a Make in India solution that provides the very best defence from air attack, providing robust protection of host platform and escorted shipping.

L&T MBDA Missile Systems Ltd, MBDA’s joint venture with Larsen & Toubro, will also be exhibiting at Aero India 2025, showcasing the work it performs in Coimbatore, delivering Make in India projects in support of Atmanirbhar Bharat for the Indian Air Force. Besides VL SRSAM, other results of the strong local co-operation ability of MBDA in India include the ATGM5 anti-tank missile, proposed as an Indian designed, developed and manufactured next generation battlefield missile to meet the needs of Indian operators.

Israel Aerospace Industries to Showcase World Class Missile Systems, Drones

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), a world-class aerospace and defence leader will showcase its latest advancements in defence technology at Aero India, demonstrating its commitment to India as a strategic partner and a key market in the defence sector. The company’s presence at the exhibition highlights its nearly 40 years of collaboration with India and its dedication to strengthening defence cooperation between the two nations.

IAI’s participation in Aero India 2025 underscores its long-standing relationship with India, reinforcing its deep-rooted collaboration with the country’s defence sector and the Indian armed forces. Over the past year, IAI has made several additional investments in the Indian market, including with its subsidiary AeroSpace Services India (ASI); its partnership with IIT Delhi, demonstrating its commitment to the next generation in India; the launch of its NeuSPHERE Innovation Acceleration Program, enabling collaboration with Indian deep-tech startups and most recently; and the opening of its new HELA Systems facility in Hyderabad, enhancing localised Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capabilities for advanced radar systems and reducing turnaround times for India’s defence forces. These reflect IAI’s ongoing commitment to India’s self-reliance goals under the ‘Make in India’ vision.

At Aero India 2025, IAI will exhibit a diverse portfolio of state-of-the-art defence solutions tailored to meet the evolving challenges of modern warfare. Among the key systems on display are:

OptSAR 550 – A dual-payload electro-optical and synthetic aperture radar (EO/SAR) tactical observation system designed for real-time intelligence and reconnaissance missions
MCS – A cost-effective digital communication satellite offering robust and secure connectivity for military and government operations
Heron TP – A multi-role, medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) remotely piloted aerial system (RPAS) providing superior intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities
B767 FRA – A strategic flight refueler aircraft capable of extending the operational range of combat aircraft and enhancing air superiority
APUS – A long-endurance quadcopter designed for persistent surveillance, border security, and tactical reconnaissance missions
MRSAM– An integrated air and missile defense system providing advanced protection against aerial threats, including missiles, aircraft, and UAVs
Oron Aircraft (ELI-3150) – A multi-mission airborne reconnaissance and surveillance system designed for persistent intelligence gathering and situational awareness
Eitam Aircraft (ELW-2085) – A conformal airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system equipped with state-of-the-art radar and battle management capabilities

Boaz Levy, President & CEO of IAI says, “India is a long-term strategic partner for Israel Aerospace Industries, and our presence at Aero India 2025 emphasises our dedication to strengthen this relationship. IAI is proud to partner with India’s defence forces, offering state-of-the-art solutions tailored to meet their operational needs. We are committed to further collaboration with the Indian defence industry and government agencies to further enhance its technological security capabilities”, adding, “We look forward to meeting with key stakeholders in India’s defence ecosystem, exploring new partnerships, and presenting our latest technological innovations at the exhibition. We remain steadfast in our mission to provide reliable, cutting-edge defence solutions that address the complex challenges of modern warfare.”

Thales Alenia Space and NIBE Sign Satellite Supply Contract for India’s first private Earth Observation constellation

Thales Alenia Space, the joint venture between Thales (67%) and Leonardo (33%), has signed a contract with NIBE Space (a subsidiary of NIBE Limited) concerning the supply of a high-resolution optical satellite, marking the first step in NIBE’s Earth Observation constellation project. This initial contract aims to establish the first operational Earth observation’s capabilities for NIBE in India by 2025.

This achievement reinforces the partnership initiated in 2024 between Thales Alenia Space and NIBE, for the deployment of India’s first private Earth Observation constellation.

“I am extremely pleased that Thales Alenia Space will contribute to developing sovereign Earth Observation capabilities in India,” said Hervé Derrey, CEO of Thales Alenia Space, adding, “Supporting the deployment of India’s first private Earth observation constellation means a lot to our company as this is Thales Alenia Space’s first cooperation on an Indian space program.”

2015-2025: The Decade That Ceded Israel’s Military Might

GSDN

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February 9, 2025

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2015-2025: The Decade That Ceded Israel’s Military Might

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Israel Defence Forces emblem: source Internet

Robert Atkins famous quote “Don’t fix what’s not broken” has a deep meaning when Israel’s military might is compared between the period 1948-2014 when the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was the finest professional military in the world, to the decade 2015-2025 in which Israel had to end its wars with Hamas and Hezbollah with ceasefires that lead to the resignation of the IDF’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 clearly indicating defeat for the IDF.

Background of the IDF

After David Ben-Gurion proclaimed the Israeli Declaration of Independence on May 14, 1948, the first order he passed was the formation of the IDF. The IDF on formation comprised of personnel who had served in the Haganah and the Palmach.

Haganah which was founded in 1920 was the main Zionist paramilitary organisation that operated for the Yishuv (the Jewish settlements) in the British Mandate for Palestine, protecting the Jewish from the attacks by the Arabs.

Palmach, which was founded in May 1941 was the elite strike force of Haganah, capable of operations on land, sea and air that was the secretive and underground, too worked for Yishuv, comprised 2000 personnel.

Both Haganah and Palmach were disbanded on May 26, 1948 when the IDF was officially raised and all the personnel of Haganah and Palmach were absorbed in the IDF.

In the first war that Israel fought immediately after its independence, it was confronted with a four-front attack waged by Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan backed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The invading armies of the Arabs had 270 tanks, 150 field guns and 300 aircraft despite an over-whelming numerical superiority, as compared to just three tanks and no aircrafts that the IDF had then.

By the time the 1949 Armistice Agreements were signed between Israel and the warring Arab nations on different days that year, Israel emerged victorious though losing the Gaza Strip to Egypt and the West Bank to Jordan including East Jerusalem.

On July 20, 1949 after the last of the armistice agreements was signed between Israel and Syria, the IDF despite numerous shortages and handicaps, had won the War of Independence for Israel and thereafter the IDF grew from strength to strength in the next nearly-seven decades, to being reckoned as the finest professional military in the world.

The pole position for the IDF amongst the professional global militaries came after immense trials, tribulations, basing their doctrines on sound military foundations and above all, the immense war experience that the IDF gained through numerous wars, conflicts and skirmishes that the IDF was baptised in, soon after its formation in 1948.

In the subsequent three multi-front wars that Israel fought in 1956, 1967 and 1973, the IDF always emerged victorious and managed to take back the Gaza Strip, West Bank and the Sinai Peninsula.

The numerous special missions carried out by the IDF, be it the “Operation Wrath of God” in 1972 to revenge the killing of the Israeli athletes participating in 1972 Munich Olympics or the successful Raid on Entebbe codenamed “Operation Thunderbolt” launched on July 03-04, 1976 to rescue 104 hostages hijacked onboard an Air France flight between Tel Aviv and Paris, which was diverted to Entebbe International Airport, Uganda, cemented IDF’s position as the finest professional military in the world.

After Hezbollah was formed in Lebanon in 1985 and the Hamas in 1987, the IDF found itself involved in wars with both these organisations in the last 18 years.

After Hamas started administering the Gaza Strip in 2007 which is located on Israel’s southern border, Israel has attacked the Gaza Strip five times in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021 and 2023. But each time Israel had to end its war with Hamas with ceasefires, the last of which being in January 2025.

On Israel’s northern border too, the IDF had to end its war on the Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and 2024 with a ceasefire.

Despite the IDF ending its wars with the Hamas in 2008, 2012 and 2014 and with Hezbollah in 2006 with ceasefires, it took a decision in 2015 that would have far reaching consequences on the credibility of the IDF as the world’s finest fighting force.

For, it was in the year 2015 that the Israeli political and military leadership agreed for the implementation of the Gideon Multi-Year Plan (GMYP) for restructuring the IDF in a massive way that would affect the structure, doctrine and war-fighting priorities of the IDF, with the hope of transforming the IDF into a modern, lean and more combat-effective force. Various implications of the GYMP have been discussed by the Author in his recent article.

As Israel’s 2023-2025 war with Hamas and the 2024 war with Hezbollah will prove, the GMYP proved to a blunder and with both the adversaries, Israel had to end the war on a ceasefire, which eventually led to the resignation of IDF’s two senior-most officers.

The Gideon Multi-Year Plan

In October 2015, the Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot while announcing the GMYP in a press conference, stated it as an extensive five-year modernisation effort that would give the IDF a “completely new look in 2020”.

The salient points of the GMYP that would totally transform the IDF for futuristic combat that disregarded a conventional war scenario, encompassed the following –

Vast reduction in manpower and training doctrines

Establishing cyber and signal intelligence wings

Reduce artillery and armoured brigades

Replacing the Division as the cutting-edge combat fighting force by Integrated Battle Groups

Achieve cost-cutting in the defence budget

GMYP proved to be a blunder as the above measures failed miserably as has been analysed in detail by the Author in his recent article.

Tnufa

Consequent to the success of implementation of the GMYP in the stipulated five-year period, the IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi on February 13, 2020 announced a new multi-year plan called “Tnufa” which is a Hebrew word meaning “Momentum” in English.

Tnufa envisioned harnessing latest technologies to infuse the most effective firepower to the frontline combat units. The emphasis was on short and swift operations to deal with organisations like the Hamas and Hezbollah, as conventional war threats no longer figured in the IDF discussions and deliberations. Tnufa also revolved around abandoning the historical proclivity of the IDF for offensive operations.

In essence, the IDF had decided to have a defensive mindset as they felt that they would be dealing only with the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah who were “mere terrorist organisations” as they were devoid of air power, naval power and artillery firepower that a conventional military possesses.

This was a grave blunder that further dented the combat prowess of the IDF affected by GMYP as the mindset and mentality of a nation’s armed forces must always be offensive and long exposures to counter-insurgency and fighting with terror organisation impedes and impacts the preparedness of a nation’s military for a conventional war.

Effect of GMYP and Tnufa in IDF’s recent wars with Hamas & Hezbollah

As the result of the GMYP and Tnufa defence reforms which were touted to be Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) for the IDF that were launched in the decade 2015 onwards, the IDF felt fully confident of tackling any threat that Israel was to ever face.

So much was the confidence of the IDF in the recent RMAs that intelligence reports emanating since 2022 warning of a large-scale attack by Hamas was rubbished on the belief that it was not executable given the immense military superiority that IDF enjoyed. So much so, the 40-page document accessed by the Israeli intelligence officials code-named “Jericho Wall” outlined point by point, the way the Hamas attack would attack Israel. It happened exactly as was outlined in “Jericho Wall” on October 07, 2023 and the IDF was unprepared to defend Israel.

Reduction in manpower, change in training doctrines, reduced combat formations, superior confidence, cost-cutting measures and negating conventional war threats that emanated from GMYP and Tnufa had disastrous consequences on October 07, 2023 when at 6.30 am over a 1000 Hamas personnel invaded Israel and killed over 1200 Israeli citizens and soldiers and took 251 hostages.

The ultra-tech “Iron Wall” created as a consequence to the GMYP whose construction commenced in 2016 and was completed in 2021 was breached at 40 places by Hamas and for 20 minutes till 6.50 am when the IDF’s electromagnetic spectrum was jammed, Hamas personnel created bloodbath and mayhem inside 15 miles of the Israeli territory as the IDF was helpless as its communications were jammed.

The 30-foot-tall border wall on its northern border with Lebanon constructed in 2018 too proved ineffective for the Hezbollah attacks that started on Israel soon after the Hamas attack of 0ctober 07, 2023.

The defensive mindset that had set in the IDF due to GMYP and Tnufa had telling consequences and the ground offensive launched by the IDF in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon started meeting with stiff resistance. The Royal United Services Institute, a reputed think-tank located in London, on October 25, 2024 reported Israel losing the war with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Despite the IDF causing total destruction of the 365-square kilometres Gaza Strip and killing all the top leadership of Hamas including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar and causing immense destruction of southern Lebanon and killing the top leadership of Hezbollah which included Hasan Nasrallah, there was growing discontent by the Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and senior IDF officers with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over huge reverses being suffered by the IDF on both its northern and southern borders and the reluctance to sign ceasefire with both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Unable to take the losses that the IDF was suffering, Yoav Gallant became a bitter critic of Benjamin Netanyahu and in the midst of the Israeli wars with Hamas and Hezbollah was dismissed as the Defence Minister on November 05, 2024. This was the first clear indication that indeed Israel was losing the wars.

Eventually, Israel ended its wars with a ceasefire with both the Hamas and Hezbollah on January 19, 2025 and November 27, 2024 respectively, which ended the 15-month war with Hamas and the 60-day war with Hezbollah.

The resignation of the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 cemented Israel’s defeat in its war both with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Never before in military history, has a military chief resigned after his nation has won the war. Military chiefs resign after a war only when their nation gets defeated.

Other Reasons for Israel’s Defeat

There are few other reasons that need deliberation which contributed to Israel’s defeat to Hamas and Hezbollah apart from GMYP and Tnufa that have been discussed in detail above.

Political unrest in Israel: The political unrest that had started in Israel soon after Benjamin Netanyahu announced judicial reforms in January 2023 that sought to curb the Israeli judiciary’s independence, started escalating as they were perceived to be done with the aim of protecting Benjamin Netanyahu who was facing a slew of corruption charges. As the protests escalated, many reservists refused to join active duty in the IDF. As a result, the IDF faced enormous manpower crunch.

Political leadership needs to understand that a nation’s military is made up from the same civil society and any action that is against the constitution or moral-ethics has a consequence for the nation’s defence forces too, as no nation’s army can be isolated and insulated from its civil society, whatever be the curbs and controls imposed on the uniformed personnel.

Hyped ultra-nationalism for Power: Benjamin Netanyahu by backing the 2018 Nation-State Law which effectively established the Israeli Arabs as second-class citizens, created deep fissures in the Israeli society. Out of the total Israeli population, 21.1% are Israeli Arabs and 73.2% are Jews. Though this hyped ultra nationalism helped Benjamin Netanyahu to be in power, but it wrecked the Israeli society and Israel started witnessing internal discord. A fractured and divided nation is always an easy prey for its enemies.

Conclusion

If Israel regards Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organisations, then it needs to study the report on how terrorist groups end published by the RAND Corporation, a highly-credible US global policy think-tank, on June 30, 2008 which highlighted that only 7% of the terrorists’ groups ended by using military force whereas 43% ended through political dialogues, 40% through effective policing and 10% after the objectives of the terrorist organisations had been achieved.

And, if Israel envisions Hamas and Hezbollah as conventional war threats, then the IDF needs a relook at the defence reforms undertaken as a consequence of the Gideon Multi-Year Plan and Tnufa and the Israeli political leadership needs to think on reuniting the Israeli society, whatever religion an Israeli citizen may belong to.

HAL’s LUH to take Centre Stage at Aero India 2025, CATS Warrior Promises to be Star of India Pavilion

GSDN

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February 9, 2025

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HAL’s LUH to take Centre Stage at Aero India 2025, CATS Warrior Promises to be Star of India Pavilion

By: Suman Sharma

India’s premiere aircraft manufacturing public sector unit (PSU) – Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) will showcase its indigenous products and technologies centered on the theme ‘Innovate. Collaborate. Lead’ at Aero India 2025 beginning February 10, 2025 at Airforce Station Yelahanka in Bengaluru.

“HAL’s indigenously designed and developed Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) will be at the center stage. Various innovative products conceived and developed by HAL R&D (research and development) Divisions in the area of avionics, mechanical systems, engines and aerospace for manned and unmanned aircraft will also be the highlight at HAL stall”, says Dr D K Sunil, CMD, HAL.

The HAL manufactured LUH, Hindustan Turbo Trainer (HTT)-40 Simulator, scaled models of LCA Mk1A fighter, LCA Mk1 Trainer, Hindustan Jet Trainer (HJT)-36, HTT-40, LCH and ALH Mk IV are some of the expected star attractions at HAL’s indoor pavilion, along with the scaled models of Hindustan 228 and its amphibian variant, while the outdoor display adjacent to HAL stall, will comprise the LCA Mk 1A and HJT 36. HTT-40, LCA Mk 1 Trainer, Hindustan 228, Do-228 and LUH on static display.

The flying display will witness the unique LCA Mk 1A formation, HJT 36, HTT-40 and LUH.

The central theme of the India Pavilion is ‘Flight of Self Reliance’. A functional full-scale engineering demonstrator of Combat Air Teaming System (CATS) Warrior will be the highlight of the India Pavilion along with Advanced Light Helicopter Next Generation (ALH NG) and RUAV. ALH NG will be placed in front of the India Pavilion to signify HAL’s entry into civil aviation. For the first time, a 1:1 model of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) will also be placed at the pavilion. There will also be sections for new technologies and future marquee products.

HAL’s indoor pavilion will showcase state-of-the-art avionics systems like Mission Management System, Digital Map Generator, Data Lite-Communication System, IFF & CIT, Indigenous Communication Complex with Audio Management System, Audio Warning System, SCDLU, Radio Control Panels etc. Also, the advanced Flight Control Actuators and electro mechanical systems like Active Side Stick Control will also be on display.

Static models of actual HTSE-1200 and GTEG-60 engines will be showcased displaying their technological challenges and innovation. An exclusive aerospace corner with scaled models of Cryogenic Engine CE-20, GSLV Mk III and Chandrayaan-3 will showcase HAL’s capabilities and role in the aerospace industry.

HAL will promote indigenously built platforms to visiting defence delegations and hold business meetings with OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and customers besides signing agreements and contracts with its business partners for various projects.

Why Greenland matters in Global Geopolitics

GSDN

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February 8, 2025

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By: Sandhya Ladwal, Research Analyst, GSDN

Greenland, the world’s largest island, has become a central focus in global geopolitics due to its strategic location, natural resources, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. Its significance spans historical military interests, economic opportunities, and environmental considerations that collectively influence international relations.

Greenland is located in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans, it connects North America, Europe, and the Arctic region. This distinctive geographical position has historically rendered it a strategic asset for military endeavours and continues to bolster its significance in the realms of global trade and security. The island has rich natural resources, including rare earth elements, like Uranium and Oil which draw the interest of major global powers to obtain essential materials for contemporary technologies. Furthermore, the ongoing melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, which significantly contributes to global sea-level rise, highlights its environmental significance and the wider consequences of climate change.

History

Greenland’s global importance was raised during World War II, when the United States constructed naval posts on the island to safeguard the North Atlantic and Axis powers. The most important of these is the Thule Air Base, which was built in 1941 & is still a crucial part of NATO’s missile defence system today. Recognizing Greenland’s strategic significance, the United States offered Denmark US$ 100 million in gold for the island in 1946, but the offer was turned down. Throughout the Cold War, Greenland’s position made it a vital region for observing Soviet actions in the Arctic and North Atlantic. The Thule Air Base worked as an important early warning system regarding potential missile attacks, emphasising the island’s position within global security frameworks.

2009 Act of Self-Government

An important turning point in Greenland’s journey toward increased autonomy and possible independence from Denmark was the Greenland Self-Government Act of 2009. It replaced the Home Rule Act of 1979 and gave Greenland power over its internal affairs while preserving Denmark’s dominance over defence, foreign policy, and money. The act’s acknowledgment of Greenlanders as a distinct people under international law was one of its most noteworthy features. The Greenlander people decide to seek full independence through a referendum. Furthermore, Greenland’s cultural and national identity was strengthened when Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) was designated as the only official language.

Natural resources and geostrategic

Greenland has large deposits of rare earth elements, which are necessary for technologies and manufacturing the batteries which include electric vehicles and wind turbines, wind and solar technologies that have drawn global interest. The United States and the European Union are eager to get these natural resources so that they can reduce their reliance on China’s dominant supply chain. However, mining in Greenland has been hindered by low ore concentrations, harsh Arctic temperatures, and the island’s dedication to environmental sustainability.

Is climate change opening new trade routes?

The melting of Arctic ice is opening up new shipping routes, such as the Northern Sea Route, which could drastically reduce transit time between Asia and Europe. Greenland’s closeness to these new routes increases its strategic relevance in global trade. Furthermore, the island’s ice sheet contributes significantly to global sea-level rise, making it a key focus of climate change research and worldwide environmental policy discussions.

Greenland is a geostrategic location for countries like the United States, China and Russia. The Arctic has transformed into a stage for geopolitical rivalry among key nations, such as the U.S., Russia, and China. Russia has been increasing Its military activities in the Arctic, whereas China aims to create a “Polar Silk Road” within its Belt and Road Initiative. With its strategic positioning and resources, Greenland stands at the crossroads of these interests, which require careful decision for the geopolitical relations.

The United States maintains a significant perspective on Greenland’s importance to national security. In 2019, President Donald Trump articulated a desire to acquire Greenland, highlighting its strategic position. This suggestion faced strong resistance from Denmark, who underscored the island’s autonomy and the aspirations of its inhabitants to shape their own destiny.

Russia has been expanding its military presence in the Arctic, reopening and modernizing Soviet-era bases and enhancing its capabilities in the region. Greenland’s location is strategically significant for Russia, as it lies along potential Arctic shipping routes and near areas of military interest. Russia’s activities in the Arctic are part of a broader strategy to assert its influence and secure access to natural resources as polar ice melts.

China has expressed interest in Greenland’s vast deposits of rare earth elements, which are needed for a variety of technologies, including electronics and renewable energy systems. Chinese companies have sought to invest in Greenland’s mining sector to secure these resources. China has identified Greenland as a valuable partner in its Arctic strategy, emphasizing economic cooperation. Chinese companies have expressed interest in Greenland’s mining sector, particularly for rare earth elements needed for modern technology. For instance, Chinese firms have engaged in discussions with Greenlandic authorities since 2012, exploring opportunities in mining and infrastructure development.

However, these investments have faced challenges. Greenland, the low concentrations of ore and a strong commitment to environmental stability prevented the extraction of minerals. In addition, the differences and cultural problems have occurred in the practice of work, in particular with regard to the potential influx of Chinese workers for large -scale projects.

Greenland in the world: Nothing about us without us

In February 2024, Greenland introduced its Foreign, Security, and Defence Policy Strategy (2024-2033), “Greenland in the World: Nothing about us without us.” This strategy reflects Greenland’s desire to enhance its presence and influence in global matters, especially concerning the Arctic region.

Enhanced autonomy in Foreign Affairs: Greenland aims to take a more active role in foreign policy decisions, reducing reliance on Denmark and ensuring that international policies affecting Greenland involve direct Greenlandic participation.

Strengthening Arctic Partnerships: The strategy emphasizes building closer ties with Arctic North American regions, including Alaska and Arctic Canada (Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut). Greenland proposes establishing a new political forum called the Arctic North American Forum to facilitate collaboration on shared Arctic interests.

Commitment to Peace and Security: Greenland aims to keep the Arctic a region of low tension. The government intends to set up a peace centre in Greenland to encourage dialogue and stability within the area.

Economic Development and Environmental Stewardship: The strategy is important in balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Greenland is keen on developing its natural resources, including critical minerals, while implementing measures to protect its fragile Arctic ecosystem.

Greenland’s role in global geopolitics is complex, involving strategic military concerns, valuable natural resources, and significant environmental issues. As climate change alters conditions in the Arctic, Greenland’s significance is expected to increase, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The island must navigate the intricate task of managing economic growth alongside environmental protection while dealing with the interests of major global powers. The future of Greenland will greatly impact, and be shaped by, broader geopolitical trends in the Arctic and beyond.

Resignation of the IDF Chief of Staff: Warning Bell for Global Militaries

GSDN

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February 7, 2025

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By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi: source Internet

After Israel declared its independence on May 14, 1948 it was well aware of the onslaught that it would face from the neighbouring Arab nations, as its unilateral declaration of independence was in contravention to the United Nations resolution 181 (II) of November 29, 1947 and after decades of bloody confrontation with the Arabs in this tiny area of the Middle East measuring 22,145 square kilometres.

But Israel prepared itself militarily well and for decades later, it fought various multi-front wars with its Arab neighbours and each time it emerged victorious thus setting a benchmark for the global militaries for professionalism in the armed forces.

Neither the UN resolution 242 of 1967 which declared Israel’s occupation of the Gaza Strip, West Bank and the Golan Heights illegal, deterred Israel as the might of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was enough for the four multi-front wars that had been waged on Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973, nor the numerous skirmishes and minor conflicts that Israel has fought since its independence impeded Israel’s military might.

The high point of IDF’s combat prowess came in 1973 when in the 19-day Yom Kippur War it defeated a 11-nation coalition force.

The successful Raid on Entebbe codenamed “Operation Thunderbolt” launched on July 03-04, 1976 to rescue 104 hostages hijacked onboard an Air France flight between Tel Aviv and Paris which was diverted to Entebbe International Airport, Uganda, embedded IDF’s position as the finest professional military in the world.

But the supremacy of the IDF in the Middle East and as the pole leader as the world’s most professional military was set to be challenged.

After Hamas was formed on December 10, 1987 and started governing the 365-square kilometres Gaza Strip since 2007, Israel has attacked the Gaza Strip located on its southern border, five times in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021 and 2023. But each time Israel had to end its war with Hamas with a ceasefire.

On Israel’s northern border too, the IDF had to end its war on the Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and 2024 with a ceasefire.

Clearly, the same IDF which had defeated a 11-nation coalition force during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 ending its wars with a ceasefire with both the Hamas and Hezbollah on January 19, 2025 and November 27, 2024 respectively, which ended the 15-month war with Hamas and the 60-day war with Hezbollah, is definitely what the global militaries and the IDF too, need to ponder upon.

The resignation of the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 clearly indicated defeat for the IDF.

Hence, it is important to analyse the changes that IDF went through which transformed it from winning the war in 1973 against a 11-nation coalition force, to its defeat in 2025 against Hamas and Hezbollah, which are not professional armies as they lack air power, naval power and artillery firepower.

Disregarding the Conventional War Threat

After the Arab Spring hit Syria and the regime of Bashar al-Assad was on a shaky wicket with a civil war engulfing Syria, Israel judged that that the last of the conventional war threats to it in the Middle East from Syria had crippled. Of the assessed major conventional war threats to Israel were Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Israel had signed a peace treaty with Egypt on March 26, 1979 and with Jordan on October 26, 1994. Thus, the only remaining conventional war threat of Syria with whom Israel had no peace treaty, was crippled severely as per Israel’s assessment.

Hamas and Hezbollah were not major threats and were dismissed by the IDF as “mere terrorist organisations” who lacked combat experience, confidence and firepower to be elevated as primary military threats.

Hence, in 2015, the IDF promulgated the Gideon Multi-Year Plan (GMYP) to reform, recalibrate and reduce the IDF to counter the asymmetric and non-state adversary threats overlooking the conventional war considerations.

As time would prove later on, the GYMP was a blunder and the IDF couldn’t achieve victories in the ground operations launched against Hamas in the Gaza Strip or against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2025.

An important lesson for the global militaries is never discard conventional war threats.

Changes in Battlegroup Formations

Before the formulation of GMYP, a Division was the cutting edge fighting force of the IDF. After 2015, Brigades were redesignated as Independent Battle Groups (IBGs) which replaced the Divisions as frontline fighting forces of the IDF. Each IBG with six battalions of Infantry, Armour, Artillery and Engineers could directly communicate with the Air Force and the Navy for combat support.

This reform of IBGs clearly failed in the conventional war scenario as is evident from the huge reverses and setbacks that the IBGs suffered in both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

An important take-away for the global militaries is that the time-tested Divisions as the cutting edge should not be replaced.

Reduction of Manpower

The IDF reduced their combat and non-combat manpower by 10% and the size of the conscripted forces by 30%. The length of conscripted service was reduced by four months. The commissioned and warrant officer posts were reduced by 45,000.

In the recent operations against Hamas and Hezbollah, the IDF experienced a severe shortage of manpower.

It would be pertinent to highlight that global militaries should avoid large reduction in manpower, for how advanced technology might become, what will finally matter is the soldier behind the weapon.

Drastic change in Infantry training

Consequent to 2015, the IDF Infantry soldiers’ training focussed primarily on urban warfare and open-battlefield warfare practises were removed from specialized training programmes.

It would be pertinent here to highlight that an IDF soldier undergoes two stages of training – basic training and specialised training. Basic training is common to all soldiers and specialized training is as per the respective combat role ie Infantry, Armoured, Artillery etc.

The removal of open-warfare practises from the specialized training of an Infantry soldier did immense damage in Israel’s recent war with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Global militaries should avoid doing away with the teachings of conventional warfare.

Reduced Armour

In accordance with the GMYP wherein emphasis was on urban warfare rather than conventional warfare, ten reserve armoured brigades of the IDF were reduced and the size of each armoured battalion was reduced from six armour companies to three armour companies along with two companies of infantry and one company of engineers. This resulted in drastic reduction of armour firepower which proved disastrous in the recent wars.

Armour firepower will play a critical role in conventional wars and global militaries need to remember that.

Reduction in Artillery

The Artillery in IDF too saw half of its reserve artillery brigades dismantled, leaving the IDF with just four active artillery brigades and four reserve artillery battalions. Artillery is known as the “God of War” and the inadequacy of the IDF’s artillery firepower was noticed in the recently concluded ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Global militaries should never reduce the traditional firepower sources like Artillery as their usage in a conventional war scenario is extremely beneficial.

Conclusion

Clearly, by negating conventional war threats and preparing for only asymmetric warfare, Israel paid a heavy price and its pole position as the world’s finest professional military for many decades, has been dented severely. The resignation of IDF’s Chief of Staff and the Southern Army Commander should be having the IDF and the global militaries introspecting and taking suitable and time-bound measures in protecting their respective nations as war clouds darken in various parts of the world.

Never before in Israel’s history has the IDF’s Chief of Staff or the Commander of any of its Commands resigned after any war that Israel has fought since 1948, as after each war from 1948 till couple of years back, Israel emerged victorious. This wasn’t the case this time.

The warning of the United Kingdom Defence Secretary on January 15, 2024 that the “era of the peace dividend” which came with the end of the Cold War is over with the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and these wars are the forerunners of future wars, needs no over-emphasis to global militaries in learning lessons from the IDF and preparing for the era of wars that is already on the horizon.

Thales To debut FlytX suite for helicopters in Aero India 2025

GSDN

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February 7, 2025

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Thales To debut FlytX suite for helicopters in Aero India 2025

By: Suman Sharma

Thales maritime patrol aircraft: source Author

European defence giant-Thales will showcase its cutting-edge technologies across the defence and aerospace sectors at the 15th edition of Aero India 2025, highlighting the Group’s commitment to ‘Make in India for India and for the world’, aligned with the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ vision.

For the first time in India, Thales will showcase its innovation in avionics through the FlytX suite for helicopters, in advanced aeronautics navigation systems such as TopAxyz, TopShield and TopStar M. Connectivity solutions such as SYNAPS-A, the airborne member of the SYNAPS software-defined radio family designed to support battlespace digitisation, Modem 21 Air Compact, and the NextW@ve TRA 6030 radio, will also be brought to Aero India this year.

As a leader in the fast-growing market of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Thales will provide an overview of its portfolio of drone solutions, including its EagleShield drone countermeasures (an integrated nano, micro, mini and small drone countermeasures solution to protect and secure civil and military sites); the PARADE system that provides 360 degree protection of people, properties and activities, optimised for micro and mini UAS, ranging from 25kg to 100g and Gamekeeper (a holographic radar that allows detection, tracking and classification of unlimited targets simultaneously including micro and mini drones), in addition to its safe and efficient UTM (Unmanned Traffic Management) system for cooperative and non-cooperative drones, to be unveiled for the first time in India.

Thales will also present its LGR 68 and LGR 70 Laser Guided Rockets that come with laser guidance precision, are jamming-proof and are extremely precise for guiding ammunition to target.

Some of the products, Thales boasts of are state-of-the-art equipment on board fighter aircraft, including the RBE2 AESA radar, the Spectra electronic warfare suite, optronics, the communication, navigation and identification suite (CNI), key cockpit display systems and a logistics support component.

The avionics leader will also highlight its combat-proven airborne optronics, including TALIOS (Targeting Long-range Identification Optronic System) pod, the 2-in-1 system that delivers unmatched image quality, and the InfraRed Search and Track (IRST) system. Also on display will be Thales’s air defence solutions such as the Lightweight Multi-role Missile (LMM), the STARStreak missile and ForceShield, alongside air surveillance capabilities such as the GM 200 MM/A radar and the SkyView air command and control system.

As part of its underwater solutions for efficient Maritime Security Operations, Thales will feature its Sonoflash sonobuoy, an anti-submarine warfare system that allows the detection, classification and localisation of submarines. It will also showcase the AirMaster C radar- the latest addition to its Air Master range of airborne surveillance radars -that is highly adaptable and can be integrated into both manned and unmanned airborne platforms.

Thales euronaval sono flash: source Author

AI Systems

Thales is a major AI player in these complex environments. The company is Europe’s top patent applicant in the field and devotes a lot of effort to research on AI, both in-house and through academic and industry partnerships. The Group provides armed forces with greater efficiency in data analysis and decision-making, while taking into account the specific constraints, such as cybersecurity, embeddability and frugality, associated with critical environments. On display will be how Thales embarked AI on its solutions such as TALIOS or AirMaster C radar.

“As India progresses towards its Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision, Thales is proud to be a trusted partner in the nation’s ambitious journey. We remain committed to ‘Make in India’ and are advancing our roadmap by strengthening our local teams, collaborations and bringing advanced defence and aerospace technologies to the country. We look forward to continue equipping the Indian armed forces with the next generation of innovative and effective solutions to support their strategic defence ambitions. Aero India 2025 will serve as a key platform for us to present our flagship capabilities and engage with the authorities, forces and our industry partners.” said Pascale Sourisse, President & CEO, Thales International.

Thales Partners Airbus in New Study Contract For French A321 MPA

The French Defence Procurement Agency (Direction Générale de l’Armement) has signed a contract with Airbus Defence and Space as prime contractor, in partnership with Thales, for a risk-assessment study of its future maritime patrol aircraft programme-the A321 MPA. This 24-month contract follows on from the architecture and feasibility study launched at the end of 2022.

“The A321 MPA (Maritime Patrol Aircraft) has all the assets to become a true flying frigate capable of responding to the wide range of missions entrusted to the French maritime patrol,” said Jean-Brice Dumont, Executive Vice President, Head of Air Power at Airbus Defence and Space. “Airbus offers a sovereign solution that provides the autonomy, availability and reliability required to contribute to the oceanic component of the nuclear deterrence.”

The aim of this new definition study and risk-assessment contract is to prepare for the development and production launch of the maritime patrol aircraft programme at the end of 2026. This study will enable the initial results of the architecture study to be taken further, in order to refine the economic and industrial conditions for carrying out the programme, to guide the technical choices of the systems to be integrated on the aircraft, and to carry out the first wind-tunnel tests.

The A321 MPA is a militarised version of the Airbus A321XLR, designed to meet all the operational requirements of the French Navy, mainly in anti-submarine and anti-ship warfare, from low to high intensity, as well as intelligence gathering. The aim is to have a new aircraft to replace the fleet of Atlantique-2 operated by the French Navy from the Lann-Bihoué (France) naval air base by the 2030-2040 timeframe.

The A321 MPA will have a long-range and high-manoeuvrability capability, including at low altitude. The aircraft will be equipped with a full range of sensors specific to maritime patrol aircraft, to which Thales is a major contributor: latest-generation radar with active antennas; an acoustic system using passive and active sonar buoys; electronic and electro-optical warfare systems; magnetic anomaly detection (MAD), and self-protection systems.

It will also carry communications systems, including satellite communications, as well as the weapons needed for anti-submarine and anti-ship warfare, comprising torpedoes and the future anti-ship missile (FMAN). The aircraft’s large cargo bay and the open architecture of its mission system give it a great capacity to evolve throughout its lifecycle to meet the emergence of new threats.

The extraordinary success of the A320 family – the world’s best-selling single-aisle aircraft with more than 10,000 aircraft in service and more than 300 million flight hours – ensures that the A321 MPA has long proven availability, reliability and low maintenance costs.

Airbus Defence and Space has long experience in converting commercial aircraft into military aircraft, culminating in the success of the A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) , which has more than 90 percent of the world market (excluding the United States). The company also has extensive expertise in the integration of sensors and mission systems on the P3, C295 and CN235 aircraft, with more than 170 aircraft in service in various maritime patrol and surveillance configurations.

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