For the first time in decades, Europe is reevaluating its military strength, largely prompted by a reality – can Putin be trusted? The consensus across the continent is a resounding no.
With the United States under the Trump administration exploring a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine, one that could potentially favor Moscow over Kyiv, European nations are realizing the necessity of bolstering their own defenses. No country embodies this shift more than Germany.
For years, Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, suffered from chronic underfunding. However, that era of neglect is now coming to an end. Presumptive Chancellor Friedrich Merz has committed to revitalizing Germany’s military, pushing investment levels unseen since the Cold War.
A landmark reform to Germany’s constitutional debt brake has now unlocked billions of euros for military spending. One projection, estimates that if Germany directs 3.5% of its GDP toward defense over the next decade, it could result in an astonishing €600 billion ($652 billion) in military funding.
Germany’s Military Awakening – From “Zeitenwende” to Action
At a classified location in central Germany, five NATO allies recently participated in military exercises simulating an attack by a “foreign adversary” on an alliance member. Amid the strategic drills, German military officials emphasized that the country is now stepping up.
Speaking at the simulated command center, General Hammerstein stated,
“Germany is a capable nation in Europe and has to be a partner for other nations. We are a responsible partner, and as a big nation, we must step up. And we will.”
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a watershed moment for Europe, marking the return of war to the continent after decades of relative peace. In Germany, it led to the “Zeitenwende” or “turning point” – a paradigm shift in military and security policy.
Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded by creating a €100 billion fund dedicated to revitalizing the Bundeswehr, even amending Germany’s Basic Law (the country’s constitution) to make it happen. But implementation fell short, bureaucratic delays, political infighting, and sluggish decision-making meant that little tangible progress was made. Eventually, the lack of execution played a role in Scholz losing his job.
Now, Merz is aiming to supercharge the Zeitenwende. As he disclosed his defense vision in Berlin, he acknowledged the decades-long neglect of military readiness –
“For at least a decade—probably much longer—we have been living under a deceptive sense of security. Now, we face a fundamental shift in defense policy.”
Germany’s military spending had plummeted over the years, from 4.9% of GDP in 1963 to an all-time low of 1.1% in 2005. Only in 2024 did Germany finally meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target, for the first time in over 30 years.
While the Bundeswehr is now on a more vigorous financial trajectory, experts argue that money alone won’t solve its problems.
The Bundeswehr’s Uphill Battle. More Than Just Money
While Merz’s commitment to strengthening Germany’s military is clear, a recent report by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, Eva Högl, gives an outline of the challenges ahead.
Högl’s findings, released last week, showed severe shortfalls in Germany’s military preparedness –
—Recruitment targets remain unmet – The Bundeswehr currently has 181,174 personnel, far below its original goal of 203,000 by 2025, which has now been pushed to 2031.
—Aging personnel – The average age of German soldiers was 32.4 years in 2019 but has since risen to 34, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the force.
—Infrastructure in disrepair – The report estimates that €67 billion is needed just to upgrade military infrastructure, with barracks described as being in a “disastrous state”.
Högl’s report concluded bluntly: “The Bundeswehr still has too little of everything.”
A major issue Germany faces is its voluntary military system. Unlike many European neighbors, Germany ended conscription in 2011, shifting to an all-volunteer force. But with recruitment failing to keep pace, some officials including General Hammerstein are calling for a return to some form of mandatory service.
Hammerstein, who himself joined as a conscript in 1992, argues that bringing back compulsory service, even in a limited capacity, could be crucial.
While reinstating conscription remains a politically sensitive topic in Germany, a shifting national mindset could make it more feasible.
The Changing German Psyche. Public Sentiment on Military Expansion
Historically, Germany has maintained a cautious stance towards military expansion due to its past. However, recent geopolitical tensions particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shifted public perception.
A March 2024 survey conducted by German public broadcaster ARD found that:
–66% of Germans support increasing spending on defense and the Bundeswehr.
–59% agree that Germany should take on additional debt to meet defense and infrastructure needs.
–Only 31% believe that military spending should remain the same or be reduced.
This marks a significant transformation in how Germans perceive military preparedness. The once-dominant pacifist approach is giving way to a more pragmatic outlook, as the nation recognizes the need for stronger defenses in an increasingly unstable Europe.
Germany’s Message to the World: ‘We Are Back’
For decades, Germany relied on the “peace dividend” from the post-Cold War era, keeping military spending low. That era is now over, the Bundeswehr’s modernization is no longer just an ambition – it’s a necessity.
Merz, fully aware of this necessity, delivered a bold declaration in Berlin last week:
“Germany is back. Germany is making a significant contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe.”
Germany’s decision to supercharge its military with hundreds of billions in investment marks one of the most significant shifts in European defense policy since the Cold War. For decades, Germany has taken a restrained approach to military spending, relying on NATO’s collective security while keeping its own forces underfunded and under-equipped.
Likewise, for years, Europe’s security has rested on two fragile pillars:
American Military Support – A long-standing assumption that the U.S. would protect Europe through NATO.
Diplomatic Engagement with Russia – A belief that economic ties and diplomacy could prevent conflict.
Both these pillars have cracked under geopolitical realities. Donald Trump’s threats to pull back U.S. support for NATO have left Europe feeling vulnerable, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed the dangers of complacency in military readiness.
Germany, often reluctant to take a leadership role in defense, has now decided it must step up, and once the biggest economy in Europe starts flexing its military muscles, others are bound to take notice.
Who Will Follow Germany’s Lead?
Several European nations have already increased military budgets, but Germany’s move could push them even further:
France: As Europe’s only nuclear power within the EU, France already has a strong military. However, Macron has long called for a “European army” independent of NATO. Germany’s increased spending could accelerate those ambitions.
Poland: Already one of the biggest military spenders in Europe, Poland is likely to welcome Germany’s shift but will remain wary, given historical tensions. Poland has been rapidly expanding its military and may increase cooperation with Germany under NATO.
The Nordic States (Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway): With Sweden and Finland now in NATO, Scandinavian nations are already ramping up defense spending in response to Russian threats. Germany’s move will reinforce the urgency of a stronger European military presence.
The Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania): Sitting on Russia’s doorstep, these nations have been vocal about the need for a stronger European military. Germany’s commitment will be a welcome sign, but they will push for faster action.
A More Militarized Europe
Germany’s military expansion will undoubtedly change Europe’s security dynamics.
Strengthening NATO: Germany’s larger military means Europe will be less reliant on the U.S. for defense, making NATO more self-sufficient.
Greater European Unity: If other nations follow Germany’s lead, we could see a more cohesive European military strategy rather than fragmented national efforts.
Risk of Military Competition: Increased defense spending across Europe could spark an arms race, leading to greater militarization across the continent.
Rising Geopolitical Tensions: A militarily stronger Europe might provoke Russia further, escalating tensions rather than deterring them.
The Last Bit, The Dawn of a New European Military Era?
Germany’s Zeitenwende marks a policy shifty and it also signals to the world that Europe is no longer relying on old security assumptions. Whether other European nations match Germany’s military ambitions or remain cautious will determine the future of European defense.
Still, Europe’s days of military complacency are perhaps over, what remains to be seen is whether this shift will bring greater stability, or if it will lead to new conflicts and challenges with Russia.
