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September 19, 2025
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Israel Moves To Divide Gaza, What It Means On The Ground As Hungary Backs Netanyahu Against ICC

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the military is “switching gears” in Gaza, seizing more territory and tightening control over key areas. Observers believe this could signal a deeper and longer-term Israeli presence in the Strip.

Israel has vowed to escalate its offensive against Hamas until it agrees to new ceasefire terms. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has pledged to seize “large areas” of Gaza. The territory has faced relentless bombardment, with at least 100 people killed in the last 24 hours, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Since Israel resumed military operations on March 18, the death toll has risen to 1,163.

While it’s unclear how much land Israel plans to take or whether permanent annexation is on the table, Netanyahu hinted at further expansion, particularly with the seizure of another strategic strip of land.

“Last night in the Gaza Strip, we switched gears. The IDF is seizing territory, striking terrorists, and destroying infrastructure,” Netanyahu said in a video address Wednesday.”We are now dividing the Strip and increasing the pressure step by step so that they will return our hostages. As long as they don’t, the pressure will keep increasing,” he added.

Netanyahu also announced the military’s seizure of the Morag Corridor, referring to an area near the former Morag settlement between Khan Younis and Rafah. He compared it to the Philadelphi Corridor, a key 14-kilometer strip along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which remains a major sticking point in ceasefire talks. If fully controlled by Israel, the Morag Corridor could become a dividing line between southern Gaza’s major cities.

Gisha, an Israeli human rights group, reports that even before this latest offensive, Israel had already expanded its buffer zone, now covering around 52 square kilometers—17% of Gaza’s total land area.

According to Col. (Res.) Grisha Yakubovich, former head of COGAT’s Civil Department, Israel may now push for the evacuation of Rafah’s population and extend its hold over the southern border. By securing these buffer zones, he argues, Israel is applying pressure on Hamas while strengthening security for its own communities.

Netanyahu, Israel, ICC Warrant, Hungary

More Control
Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eitan Dangot, former Coordinator of Government Activities in the Palestinian Territories (COGAT), believes Israel’s latest military moves could mark the start of dividing Gaza into three controlled sections.

The focus on the Morag Corridor is not just military, Dangot noted but also political. Seizing the area could be a signal to right-wing hardliners in Israel’s government who advocate for resettlement in former Jewish settlements within Gaza.

“When you say ‘Morag’ out loud, it brings back the memory of the disengagement from Gush Katif,” Dangot said, referring to the cluster of Israeli settlements, including Morag, that were dismantled in 2005 under then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s withdrawal plan.

Since October 7, some Israeli settlers and right-wing politicians have been pushing for a return to Gaza, openly calling for the expulsion of Palestinians and the re-establishment of Jewish settlements in the Strip.

A War With No End in Sight
Israel’s renewed military campaign has brought devastation across Gaza since March 18, with Netanyahu vowing to use “increasing military strength” until all hostages are freed.

In one of the latest deadly strikes, at least 31 people were killed and dozens wounded when an Israeli airstrike hit Dar al-Arqam School in Gaza City’s Tuffah neighborhood, according to Gaza’s Civil Defense. The school had been sheltering displaced Palestinians. The Israeli military claimed it was targeting a Hamas “command and control center” in the area but did not confirm if it was the same location.

Meanwhile, hostage negotiations remain deadlocked. Hamas has rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal, which offered a 40-day truce in exchange for 11 hostages—a counter to an earlier Egyptian-mediated deal. According to Israeli authorities, 24 hostages are believed to be alive in Gaza, while the bodies of 35 others are still being held.

Israel has also blocked humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, insisting that Hamas must first agree to a ceasefire extension. Hamas, in turn, has accused Israel of backtracking on commitments made in previous negotiations.

Desperation and Hunger
Since Israel launched its war on Hamas following the group’s October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people in Israel and saw 251 taken hostage, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated rapidly. According to the enclave’s health ministry, more than 50,000 Palestinians have died since the war began.

With a weeks-long blockade cutting off food supplies, hunger has reached critical levels. On Wednesday, desperate civilians broke into a UN warehouse in Gaza’s Al-Tuffah neighborhood, looting bags of flour meant for humanitarian relief.

Hungary Says It Will Exit ICC as Netanyahu Visits - The New York Times
Hungary to Exit ICC as Orban Hosts Netanyahu
Meanwhile, Hungary has announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), a move revealed on Wednesday as Prime Minister Viktor Orban welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who is currently wanted by the court—to Budapest.

Standing alongside Netanyahu, Orban justified the decision by calling the ICC a “political tool.”

“This very important court has been diminished to a political tool, and Hungary wishes to play no role in it,” Orban declared during a joint press conference.

Netanyahu praised the move, calling it “bold and principled,” and suggesting that Hungary may be the first of many countries to follow suit.

The two leaders delivered brief remarks but did not take any questions from the press.

Netanyahu’s First European Visit Since Arrest Warrant
Netanyahu’s visit to Hungary marks the first time he has set foot on European soil since the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three senior Hamas officials in May 2024.

The court alleges there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Netanyahu is criminally responsible for war crimes, including “starvation as a method of warfare” and “crimes against humanity, murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”

Netanyahu dismissed the accusations as “absurd and antisemitic.”

“Israel utterly rejects the absurd and false actions and accusations against it by the International Criminal Court, which is a politically biased and discriminatory body,” his office said in response.

As a signatory to the Rome Statute, Hungary is technically obliged to arrest Netanyahu. Instead, Orban’s government gave him a red-carpet welcome at Budapest’s Buda Castle, complete with a formal ceremony at the Lion’s Court.

Hungary, A Lone Voice in Europe?
Hungary’s decision to leave the ICC places it on a collision course with other European Union members. If the withdrawal goes through, Hungary will become the only EU nation not part of the ICC.

Hungary’s State Secretary for International Communication and Relations, Zoltan Kovacs, confirmed that the withdrawal process would begin on Thursday, stating that it would be done “in line with Hungary’s constitutional and international legal obligations.”

The ICC has yet to issue a formal response to Hungary’s decision.

Reactions across the EU remain divided. Ireland and Spain have openly stated they would arrest Netanyahu if he entered their territory. France and Germany, on the other hand, have taken a more cautious stance, questioning whether the ICC has jurisdiction over Israel, since Israel is not a member of the court.

More than 120 countries are signatories to the Rome Statute, but several major powers—including the United States, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—are not members.

Türkiye, Arab world, most European countries welcome ICC arrest warrants  for Israel's Netanyahu, Gallant

Netanyahu and the ICC
The ICC’s arrest warrant against Netanyahu is historic, marking the first time the court has targeted the leader of a key U.S. ally. It places Netanyahu in the same category as Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom the ICC has charged over Moscow’s war in Ukraine, and Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, who was facing ICC charges before his capture and execution in 2011.

Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have criticized the ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant. Under Trump, the U.S. went as far as imposing economic and travel sanctions on ICC officials investigating American citizens and allies.

At the same time, the ICC issued arrest warrants for three top Hamas leaders:

Yahya Sinwar (Hamas leader in Gaza)

Mohammed Deif (Commander of Al-Qassam Brigades)

Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas political chief)

Since then, all three have been killed by Israeli forces during the ongoing war.

 

 

 

 

India’s Pivot to BIMSTEC: A Strategic Shift away from SAARC?

By: Soniya Bugaliya

BIMSTEC: source Internet

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Thailand to attend the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand, his very presence underscores a profound transformation in India’s foreign policy priorities, a deliberate recalibration from the once-central SAARC to the ascendant BIMSTEC. This summit in Thailand serves as a vibrant testament to BIMSTEC’s on-going vitality and sustained momentum in stark contrast to SAARC which languishes in a state of suspended animation, its summit-level engagements frozen since 2014. BIMSTEC’s recent adoption and enforcement of its charter further epitomizes its institutional invigoration, a stark counterpoint to SAARC, whose charter, dating back to 1985, presides over an organization mired in inertia. Thus, the Thailand summit solidifies BIMSTEC’s prominence as the preferred vehicle for Bay of Bengal regional cooperation, while SAARC’s relevance recedes amidst a lack of engagement.

Donald Trump’s resurgence in the US has weakened globalization, elevating regionalization as the new dominant paradigm. In South Asia, while SAARC was created to foster regional integration and development, its progress has been hampered. Consequently, India increasingly favours BIMSTEC as a more viable platform for regional cooperation. This paper will analyse India’s strategic shift by examining SAARC’s decline, the factors driving India’s focus on BIMSTEC, and SAARC’s current relevance.

The Decline of SAARC: A Victim of Geopolitical Rivalry

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), established in 1985 with the efforts of Zia-ur-Rehman, was founded with the noble aim of fostering economic and social development, cultural exchange, and regional stability among eight South Asian nations. However, SAARC’s trajectory has been marred by persistent challenges, primarily stemming from the complex and often antagonistic relationship between India and Pakistan.

The India-Pakistan rivalry has been the most significant impediment to SAARC’s effectiveness. Deep-seated mistrust and conflicting strategic interests have prevented meaningful cooperation on key issues. Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism has further strained relations with India, leading to heightened tensions and a breakdown of dialogue. The 2016 terror attack in Uri and the subsequent cancellation of the SAARC summit in Islamabad epitomize the extent to which the India-Pakistan conflict has paralysed the organization.

Beyond the India-Pakistan dynamic, SAARC has also suffered from a lack of institutional capacity, inadequate resources and varying levels of commitment from member states. Key initiatives, such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) signed in 2004, have made slow progress, and connectivity projects have faced significant delays. This has contributed to a perception of SAARC as an ineffective and dysfunctional grouping. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has characterized it as a “jammed vehicle”, aptly capturing the organization’s inability to convene a summit after the Uri attack in 2016.”

The Rise of BIMSTEC: A Strategic Imperative for India

In contrast to SAARC’s stagnation, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), founded in 1997 and comprising five South Asian and two South-east Asian countries, has emerged as a more promising platform for India’s regional aspirations in 21st century. BIMSTEC’s growing importance in India’s foreign policy calculus is driven by a combination of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors.

BIMSTEC is located in a strategic location i.e. Bay of Bengal which connects South Asia with south-east Asia. The Bay of Bengal is a crucial maritime space and part of wider Indo-Pacific region, and BIMSTEC allows India to enhance its maritime security, promote connectivity, and expand its trade links with South-east Asia and East Asia. At the 2017 BIMSTEC summit meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said, “It is a natural platform to fulfil our key foreign policy priorities of Neighbourhood First and Act East”, as it connects not only South and South-east Asia, but also the ecologies of the Great Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal.

Moreover, BIMSTEC offers India a way to foster regional cooperation while circumventing the obstacles posed by Pakistan within SAARC. Since SAARC has been internally fraught, with the Indo-Pak rivalry at the heart of the organization proving to be a paralyzing deadlock. For New Delhi, the hopes of an India led model of regionalism will never be possible with Pakistan in the same grouping. Thus, the logic of convenience dictates that “SAARC minus Pakistan” is the road ahead if India wants to be a regional leader in its neighbourhood. This does not mean that BIMSTEC stands in opposition to SAARC. In fact, the Bay of Bengal community could complement SAARC efforts in promoting a South Asian free trade area. However, South Asia is incomplete without Pakistan and Afghanistan. Thus, India’s shift from SAARC to BIMSTEC is imagining its neighbourhood not from a continental, South Asian frame of reference but a maritime one, which is a corollary to its advances in the east over the years.

A point to be noted that BIMSTEC had not been on the top of Modi’s agenda until September 2016, when Pakistan based terrorists targeted the Uri base camp of the army. This terror attack jolted the government’s trust in the Pakistani leadership’s fight against terror. India then renewed its push for BIMSTEC, which had existed for almost two decades but been somewhat neglected. At the BRICS (Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa) summit in Goa, Modi also hosted an outreach summit with BIMSTEC leaders in October 2016. This gave a big push to the India–BIMSTEC relationship.

The recent India’s growing engagement with BIMSTEC is also shaped by the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region. The rise of China and its increasing assertiveness have created new challenges and opportunities for India.

Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has entrenched itself in BIMSTEC economies by financing ports, highways, and power projects. In Myanmar, China’s investment in the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port gives it strategic access to the Bay of Bengal. In Sri Lanka, the Hambantota port, leased to China for 99 years, exemplifies Beijing’s debt diplomacy. If India does not take decisive action, the region could gradually fall under China’s strategic influence.

Thus, having deeper ties with the littoral states and a supportive and cooperative neighbourhood as well as offering greater commitments to the region in terms of being a net-security provider would help India counter the advances that China has been making. BIMSTEC provides India with a platform to offer alternative connectivity and development initiatives, fostering a more balanced regional order and countering China’s growing influence.

Since Pakistan is not a part of BIMSTEC, India has used the organisation to isolate its neighbour diplomatically within South Asia. However, such an approach is restrictive in nature. According to a recent World Bank report, South Asia is one of the most densely populated but poorly integrated regions in the world. Its intraregional trade is less than five per cent of the total trade of South Asian countries. The report adds that although there is potential to double this figure, it will not be achieved through SAARC, as the organisation has fallen victim to the bilateral disputes between India and Pakistan. Herein lies the opportunity that BIMSTEC provides and to leverage the organisation India should focus on the connectivity projects in and around the Bay of Bengal region. This could help unleash the potential of its seven Northeast states—Myanmar’s Sittwe Port is closer to the Northeast than Kolkata. Furthermore, physical connectivity would also help India integrate with ASEAN’s Master Plan of Connectivity 2025. India has already invested in the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement.

This does not mean that BIMSTEC stands in opposition to SAARC. In fact, the Bay of Bengal community could complement SAARC efforts in promoting a South Asian free trade area.

Challenges and Opportunities

While BIMSTEC presents significant opportunities for India, it also faces challenges that need to be addressed. The constraints that India faces in terms of prioritizing BIMSTEC over SAARC are two-fold.

 First, India’s prioritization of BIMSTEC has often been seen by analysts as a “rebound relationship”, which only resurfaces every time if there is talk of the need for a replacement for SAARC. The idea of BIMSTEC has generated scepticism even among leaders of member states, like Nepalese Prime Minister KP Oli and Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, who have said that the grouping should not replace SAARC. In simple terms, BIMSTEC should have a rationale of its own along with a clear vision and actionable goals that appeal to all its members. Advancing BIMSTEC as a replacement of SAARC would only breed resistance, which could result in lack of political will on the part of member states with stakes in both groupings

The second constraint is more logistical and conceptual. BIMSTEC’s own record has been dismal in terms of concrete achievements. In over 25 years, it has only five summits to its name. Until 2014, it did not even have a Secretariat and even at present, the secretariat is severely understaffed with a paltry budget. India has to overcome the tag of underperforming in this grouping and if it has to champion regionalism with this new cartography, it has to walk the talk on its commitments.

While the shift from SAARC to BIMSTEC is a shift of convenience and necessity, its success would depend on New Delhi’s political will and its ability to deliver on its promises to its neighbours. Also, the political instability in Bangladesh and Myanmar further adds uncertainty in the region.

SAARC’s Relevance in Present Times: Potential Amidst Challenges

Despite India’s shift towards BIMSTEC, the question of SAARC’s relevance in the current geopolitical landscape remains. While SAARC has been plagued by challenges, there are arguments for its potential importance.

Scholars argues that SAARC still provides a platform for dialogue and cooperation among South Asian countries, addressing common challenges such as poverty, climate change, and disaster management. Reviving SAARC could potentially foster greater regional economic integration and connectivity, unlocking the region’s economic potential.

As former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “success of SAARC lies in the eyes of beholder.” SAARC’s success is like a half-filled glass, it depends on our perception how we see it. For instance, since its inception SAARC has its own Charter, even it has signed SAFTA early in 2004 whereas BIMSTEC still lags in it and other initiatives includes South Asian University, South Asia satellite, SAARC food Bank , SAARC milk grid etc.

Umran Chowdhury, Research Associate at the Cosmos Foundation and the Bay of Bengal Institute in Bangladesh contrasts SAARC and BIMSTEC: “SAARC was supposed to be our version of the EU or ASEAN, whereas BIMSTEC is like a sub-regional organisation on the sidelines—like the Council of Europe or Union for the Mediterranean.”  This distinction is critical. SAARC sought to integrate South Asia in a way that mirrored the European Union’s success. However, its internal dysfunction, primarily caused by Indo-Pakistani tensions, rendered it ineffective. BIMSTEC, by contrast, has a more focused economic and strategic role, less free from SAARC’s political baggage.

Recently The Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s interim government, has signalled a desire to revive SAARC. Even Pakistan has consistently pushed for SAARC’s revival. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasised Pakistan’s readiness to play its part in rejuvenating the organisation, highlighting the vast untapped potential for regional development, connectivity, and cooperation among South Asian countries.

As Atal Bihari Vajpayee said, “we can change our friends, but we can’t change our neighbours.” South Asia is a basket case of all non-conventional security threats- terrorism, drug trafficking, extremism, climate change impacts. In this scenario importance of SAARC as regional organisation increases because it is the only organisation which includes all the South Asian countries. As SD Muni says “SAARC is not a history, it has to be future.” For which there is need to think regionally on the issues that impact the subcontinent as whole. India’s global ambitions depend on its capacity to convince its neighbours that India’s rise is an opportunity for them, not a threat.

However, the persistent challenges that SAARC is facing, particularly the India-Pakistan rivalry, continue to undermine its effectiveness. The lack of progress on key initiatives and the absence of regular summits raise serious questions about SAARC’s ability to deliver meaningful outcomes. Furthermore, the rise of alternative regional platforms, such as BIMSTEC, and the growing focus on bilateral and sub-regional cooperation initiatives like Bangladesh–China–India Myanmar Forum, with the proactive membership of China and BBIN have further diminished SAARC’s centrality.

Further, we still do not know if Afghanistan will be part of SAARC further complicating matters. Having the brutal Taliban regime as a SAARC member would severely tarnish the brand.

Conclusion

India’s strategic pivot from SAARC to BIMSTEC reflects the changing geopolitical landscape of South Asia and India’s evolving regional priorities. SAARC’s decline, hampered by the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan, has created a vacuum that BIMSTEC is increasingly filling. BIMSTEC offers India a more effective platform to pursue its economic, strategic, and geopolitical interests, enhancing its connectivity, promoting regional integration, and countering the growing influence of China.

While challenges remain, BIMSTEC has the potential to play a vital role in shaping a stable, prosperous, and India-centric regional order in the Indo-Pacific. SAARC, in the meantime, faces an uncertain future, with its relevance contingent on overcoming persistent challenges and demonstrating a renewed commitment to regional cooperation. Reviving SAARC will take a lot of political capital.

As C. Rajamohan says “a nation’s destiny is linked to its neighbours”. India’s ambitions to become global power depend on its capacity to convince its neighbours that its rise is an opportunity for them, not a threat. For this, The Gujral doctrine and Neighbourhood First policy can be a way forward.

Putin Ramps Up War Effort With 160,000 New Troops As Trump Grants Russia Tariff Relief. A Strategic Power Play?

At a critical moment in the Ukraine war, Russia is launching one of its biggest military conscription drives in years. President Vladimir Putin has signed off on a new draft, pulling in 160,000 men between 18 and 30 to join the armed forces. That’s 10,000 more than last year and over 15,000 more than three years ago, according to Russian state media.

Conscription isn’t new for Russia, it happens twice a year, but the numbers are steadily rising as Putin pushes to expand the military. Three years ago, Russia had around 1 million military personnel; now, it’s closer to 1.5 million.

This latest draft comes as the war in Ukraine reaches a pivotal moment. Moscow has been leaning on North Korean fighters to hold its ground in the Kursk region while steadily pushing forward in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Washington is trying to broker negotiations to end the conflict.

Officially, Russia doesn’t send fresh conscripts straight into combat zones. But reports suggest that many are pressured or tricked into signing contracts that send them straight to the front lines. Others have ended up in the crosshairs, like during Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk last August.

While Russian forces continue heavy attacks in Donetsk and bombard Ukrainian cities, diplomacy is also in motion. Senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev is heading to Washington this week to meet Trump’s top aide Steve Witkoff. This marks the first time a high-ranking Russian official has visited the U.S. since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, signaling a shift in U.S.-Russia relations since Trump returned to office in January.

Trump himself recently admitted in a interview that Russia might be “dragging their feet” in negotiations. Putin, for his part, outright rejected Trump’s latest ceasefire proposal – unless, of course, U.S. sanctions are lifted. Talks continue, but so do the airstrikes and military maneuvers.

Putin

Trump Spares Russia from Tariffs as Putin’s Top Negotiator Visits Washington, Ukraine Left in the Cold
Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs kicks in today, hitting multiple countries with major new trade barriers – but Russia is nowhere on the list. And that’s raising eyebrows, especially as war-torn Ukraine faces a 10% tariff from the U.S.

The White House has offered no explanation for why Russia is getting a free pass, but the timing is telling. Putin’s investment envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, one of the most U.S.-savvy figures in Russia’s elite, was in Washington yesterday, meeting with top Trump officials. Dmitriev, the highest-ranking Russian official to visit the U.S. since the 2022 invasion, was invited by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

His visit comes as the Trump administration continues pushing for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While unveiling the tariffs on Wednesday, Trump spoke of “good cooperation” between the two countries and reiterated his desire to end the war.

That message didn’t sit well in Kyiv. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called out Trump’s repeated praise of Russia, suggesting that Ukraine is being sidelined. With Washington warming up to Moscow while slapping Ukraine with new tariffs, the power dynamics in this war just got even more complicated.

Russia-Ukraine, The Long Road to “Peace”
Putin’s strategy has been clear – grind Ukraine down militarily, fracture Western support, and push Kyiv into accepting a settlement on his terms. Russia has steadily gained ground in eastern Ukraine, leveraged support from countries like North Korea and China, and waited for political shifts in the West to work in its favor.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has been holding on with Western aid, but with US out of the picture, cracks are showing. The U.S. and Europe are struggling with war fatigue, economic pressures, and shifting political ecosystem. If Ukraine keeps losing territory it may have to consider some form of negotiation – though Zelensky will resist any deal that cedes Ukrainian land.

A potential scenario? A frozen conflict, like Korea, no real peace, but a heavily militarized stalemate with periodic skirmishes. Another possibility –  a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the U.S. that forces Kyiv to accept unfavorable conditions in exchange for Western security guarantees.

Russia-Ukraine Deal: Trump Should Make Putin Wince Before They Sit Down to  Talk

Russia-US. A New Era of “Transactional” Diplomacy
Trump’s return changes the game completely. His foreign policy isn’t about ideology; it’s about deals. He sees Putin not as an enemy, but as a player he can negotiate with. By exempting Russia from tariffs and engaging in backchannel talks, Trump is signaling that he’s open to “resetting” relations – possibly in exchange for concessions in Ukraine, the Middle East, or even trade agreements.

But this doesn’t mean a full-on U.S.-Russia alliance. The American deep state (Pentagon, CIA, Congress) remains deeply anti-Russia. If Trump pushes too hard for reconciliation, he’ll face massive pushback domestically. And if Russia gets too aggressive – say, by escalating in NATO-adjacent regions – Trump might be forced to take a tougher stance.

What’s the Likely Outcome?
A shaky ceasefire in Ukraine, likely imposed under U.S. pressure, leaving Russia with some territorial gains while Ukraine gets military and economic guarantees from the West.

A temporary US-Russia thaw under Trump, more about tactical cooperation than true alliance, with Russia potentially giving something in return (nuclear arms control talks, Middle East cooperation, etc.).

A return to tensions if Trump loses in 2028, because any future U.S. administration will likely revert to a hardline stance on Russia.

One wild card is China. If Russia gets too close to the U.S., it might strain its deepening ties with Beijing, which has been a crucial economic and political ally. A balancing act for Putin, no doubt.

The war won’t end in a clean victory for either side, and U.S.-Russia relations will remain fluid – transactional under Trump, hostile under anyone else. But for Ukraine? The future looks increasingly like a compromise, not a triumph.

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Iran Bombing Plan Puts The World On Edge. Is Iran Weighing A Preemptive Strike On Diego Garcia? Why U.S. Military Action Might Fail To Subdue Tehran

Donald Trump is once again turning up the heat on Iran, warning that if Tehran doesn’t bow to Washington’s demands on its nuclear program, it will face severe consequences.

His remarks come after he scrapped the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) during his first term, unraveling an agreement that had placed curbs on Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Tehran, on its part, insists its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.

As tensions spike, Trump earlier hinted that his first overseas trip since returning to office could include stops in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—key players in the region. This announcement comes just as the U.S. ramps up its military presence in the Middle East. Two carrier strike groups, extra fighter squadrons, and B-2 stealth bombers have been stationed at the U.S. base in Diego Garcia, reinforcing Washington’s air power in the region.

The U.S. is also doubling down on airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been disrupting Red Sea shipping routes, an issue that has Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt on high alert.

Trump’s earlier threats to directly target Iran’s nuclear sites remain in a murky zone. However, this time around, he seems more emboldened, surrounded by loyalists rather than experienced military strategists. A recent leak of Signal messages among his core advisers even revealed that some, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, were clueless about key players in the conflict – allegedly admitting, “No one is even sure who the Houthis are.”

Iran
The Challenges of Airstrikes Against Iran, Why Bombing Alone Won’t Cut It

If the U.S. decides to take military action against Iran, it will have to rely entirely on air power. But that’s far easier said than done. There’s precedent for targeting nuclear programs via airstrikes – Israel has done it before. In 1981, it took out Iraq’s Osirak reactor in Operation Opera. In 2007, it bombed a suspected nuclear facility in Syria under Operation Orchard. Even Iran itself attempted something similar in 1980, launching Operation Scorch Sword to hit Iraq’s nuclear ambitions during the Iran-Iraq war.

But Iran’s nuclear setup today is a different beast altogether. Unlike the single-site targets of the past, Iran’s program is highly decentralized and heavily fortified. Key facilities like Natanz sit about 200 feet underground beneath mountainous terrain. Even the U.S.’s most advanced bunker-buster bomb, the GBU-57, might struggle to cause lasting damage. Simply put, a one-off bombing campaign won’t be enough – a sustained air operations would be required to make a dent.

Ironically, Iran has modeled its nuclear program in a way that mirrors Israel’s own secretive nuclear development, which has remained an open secret since the 1960s despite U.S. objections. That makes dismantling it through airstrikes a logistical nightmare.

The Regional Fallout. Why Gulf Allies Might Not Be On Board
Even if the U.S. does go ahead with an air campaign, the real problem isn’t just Iran, it’s the regional fallout.

Unlike past American wars, this wouldn’t be a clean, distant affair. U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of whom host American military bases, would be dragged into the conflict. A single Iranian missile hitting Dubai could undo decades of economic progress for the UAE, turning the Gulf’s financial hub into a warzone overnight.

Meanwhile, Israel has been tackling the Iran nuclear problem in its own way, through years of covert operations, espionage, cyber warfare, and assassinations of nuclear scientists. But despite these efforts, Iran’s nuclear program has only advanced. In fact, intelligence now suggests Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks rather than months or years.

The Gamble Between Trump and Iran
Trump’s recent backchannel letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei via UAE intermediaries suggests that, despite the war drums, Washington isn’t entirely shutting the door on dialogue. But in Tehran, the very idea of talking to the U.S. is political poison, especially for hardliners who saw the JCPOA deal as a failed experiment.

This leaves both Trump and Khamenei in a tough spot. For Khamenei, another attempt at negotiations could alienate his support base, which already views America as untrustworthy. For Trump, launching a full-scale conflict contradicts his campaign rhetoric of avoiding costly foreign wars. But the reality is sinking in on both sides – neither a quick U.S. military victory nor Iran’s complete defiance is a sustainable path forward.

Gulf states wary of return to Donald Trump's 'maximum pressure' against Iran

The Gulf States Are Not On Board
To complicate matters, Trump is also getting pushback from supposed allies in the Gulf too. According to Middle East Eye, key Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are refusing to let U.S. fighter jets use their airspace for any potential strike on Iran. These countries are wary of being dragged into a full-scale regional conflict, knowing that Iranian retaliation could hit them just as hard as the U.S.

For years, Washington has tried to rally Gulf nations behind its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. But as tensions peak, these governments are choosing pragmatism over provocation, leaving Trump and the Pentagon scrambling.

Is a Military Clash Inevitable?
Meanwhile, even as the diplomatic clock is ticking, France has issued a warning—if nuclear negotiations with Iran fail, military confrontation may be unavoidable. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot’s remarks come amid high-stakes discussions, with European powers racing to secure a new agreement before the UN sanctions tied to the 2015 nuclear deal expire in October 2025.

Despite Tehran’s insistence that its nuclear programme is purely for peaceful purposes, Western nations remain unconvinced. Since the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018—following the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal and subsequent sanctions—Iran has significantly ramped up uranium enrichment, reaching levels dangerously close to weapons-grade.

Donald Trump, never one to shy away from confrontation, doubled down on his approach. He’s urged Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to return to the negotiating table, warning that failure to do so could invite devastating consequences – including bombing and economic penalties. Khamenei, in turn, has vowed retaliation for any attack, setting the stage for a volatile showdown.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi maintains that Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain within international law. While he claims Tehran is open to negotiations, he insists they must be conducted on equal terms—free from coercion and intimidation. He has also condemned recent U.S. rhetoric as a blatant violation of diplomatic principles, warning of swift and decisive retaliation if Iran’s sovereignty is threatened.

European leaders continue to push for a last-minute breakthrough, holding technical-level discussions with Iran in a bid to keep diplomacy alive. But as time runs out, tensions are escalating, and the likelihood of military intervention grows.

As Trump cozies up to Putin, Russia offers to mediate US-Iran nuclear talks  | The Times of Israel

Russia Warns of ‘Catastrophic’ Consequences, US Bombers Mobilize
The nuclear standoff between the US and Iran is reaching dangerous new heights, with Russia stepping in to warn of “catastrophic” consequences if Washington follows through on its threats to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov condemned US threats as coercive and inappropriate, signaling Moscow’s willingness to mediate between Washington and Tehran. But diplomatic channels may be running out, as the military buildup on both sides intensifies.

Iran’s Pre-Emptive Strike Consideration
A startling new development suggests that Iran’s military leaders are contemplating a preemptive strike on Diego Garcia – the US-British military base deep in the Indian Ocean. This base, currently hosting a significant portion of America’s elite B-2 stealth bombers, has become a strategic focal point amid rising tensions.

Reports indicate that Iran may not aim to directly destroy Diego Garcia but could launch missiles into the surrounding waters as a show of force – sending a stark message that an American attack on Iran will not come without consequences.

US Moves to Intimidate or Attack?
The US has forward-deployed up to seven B-2 bombers – representing nearly 35% of its entire fleet – to Diego Garcia. These “ghosts of the sky” are designed to penetrate heavily fortified defenses and are the only aircraft in the world capable of delivering 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, capable of crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

While some experts believe this deployment is meant to intimidate Iran into negotiations, others warn it could signal an imminent military operation – not just against Iran, but also against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.

Diego Garcia, No Longer an Impenetrable Fortress?
Diego Garcia, long considered beyond the reach of adversaries, is now facing a new kind of threat. Iran’s Shahid Mahdavi, a converted container ship that serves as a “sea base” for missile and drone attacks, has been spotted in waters near the Indian Ocean. This vessel, along with Iran’s experience in overwhelming air defenses using swarm drone tactics, raises concerns that the US base may not be as secure as previously thought.

A recent analysis from the Hudson Institute warns that just five well-placed missiles could wipe out the US’s advanced aircraft stationed at Diego Garcia, significantly degrading America’s strategic reach.

Despite his aggressive stance, Trump has suggested that diplomacy remains an option.

“There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal,” he stated. While the US has reached out for direct talks, Iran has only signaled a willingness for indirect negotiations, wary of Trump’s track record of withdrawing from previous agreements.

As the May deadline looms, tensions continue to rise. With US and Iranian forces already clashing via proxy conflicts, particularly in Yemen, where American strikes have reportedly killed at least 53 people in response to Houthi attacks, the potential for an all-out war is growing by the day.

US Iran Donald Trump Ayatollah Khamenei - Trump threatens to bomb Iran if  it doesn't agree to nuclear deal; Iran ready to retaliate - Trump threatens  to bomb Iran if it doesn't

The Last Bit, No Easy Fix
Trump may believe that a “shock and awe” bombing campaign will bring Iran to its knees, but history suggests otherwise. Unlike past targets, Iran’s nuclear sites won’t be easy to destroy, and any military action will have massive consequences across the Middle East.

Iran’s nuclear facilities are heavily fortified, and a single round of bombing won’t be enough. Any prolonged military engagement could spiral into another drawn-out conflict, something neither Trump nor the American public wants.

With the world on edge over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the latest developments signal a potentially catastrophic conflict brewing in the Indian Ocean. The US has ramped up its military posture, deploying its elite B-2 bombers – capable of penetrating Iran’s deepest bunkers – while Iran is reportedly exploring preemptive strikes on the Diego Garcia airbase, once considered untouchable.

For now, dialogue, however fragile, remains the best bet. Both Washington and Tehran seem to recognize this, even if neither wants to admit it outright. But in a world driven more by ego than logic, there’s no telling whether diplomacy will win out over destruction.

Thus, Iran’s military posturing, Russia’s dire warnings, and Trump’s brinkmanship all point to an imminent tipping point. If diplomatic efforts fail, the world may be looking at a military confrontation unlike anything seen in the region before – one that could have devastating consequences far beyond the Middle East.

 

 

 

 

 

A Jeopardized Geopolitical Juggernaut between Japan and Russia

By: Pragathi Kowndinya, Research Analyst, GSDN

Russia and Japan’s flags: source Internet

The year was 2012. Shinzo Abe returned to power as the Prime Minister of Japan. Ever since he occupied the position, he firmly and persistently reiterated in the august ‘National Diet’ of Japan regarding resetting the bilateral relations with the Russian Federation. This was an acute shift from the traditional approach towards its historical rival. Accordingly, Abe envisioned a ‘New Approach’ to formalize ties with Russia. Even the 2016 ‘Diplomatic Bluebook’ of Japan reflected Abe’s geopolitical vision towards Russia which stated that the ‘development of ties with Russia contributes to Japanese interests and to regional peace and prosperity’. However, despite these strategic manoeuvring by Abe, the relations between hitherto rival nations remained low and cold. Series of geopolitical gambits didn’t yield a tangible and acute solution to the historical hustle.

The relations further plunged down with Shinzo Abe stepping down from power. With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the animosity among the orthodox rivals was further fuelled. Since then, Japan has imposed a series of sanctions on Russia and has outrightly criticized Russia’s military action in Ukraine and has claimed it as ‘an effort to threaten the post-Cold War world order’. The efforts to revamp the relations thus have reached a stalemate and the diplomatic tone towards Russia has radically changed in the latest Diplomatic Bluebooks of Japan. This deadlock has not just thwarted all the previous diplomatic endeavours to restore ties but can also lead to geopolitical repercussions in Asia, Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Tracing the Roots of the Tensions

  • Tussle for hegemony in East Asia

The Sea of Japan (a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean) separates the Russian Far East and the Japanese Archipelago. Japan and Russia had cordial commercial and diplomatic relations in the 1850’s. However, cordiality began to turn into contestations as both the nations urged to exercise their geopolitical and territorial ambitions in the region. By the 17th century Russia had established control over the entire Siberian region. However, Russia’s ambition of expansionism further towards East Asia was hindered by the mighty Japanese empire. The two nations thus contested to control Manchuria and Korea, which led to the outbreak of Russo-Japan War in 1904-1905 when Japan launched a surprise attack on the Pacific fleet of Russia.

The war ended with the ‘Treaty of Portsmouth’ which upheld the Japanese interests in Korea and other parts of East Asia. Thereby Japan emerged as a great power and epicentre of the geopolitical dynamics of Asia. The relations between Japan and the Soviet Union in the aftermath of Communist takeover of Russia from the Tsars Empire in 1917, is also characterized as hostile and indecisive. When Japan took full control of Manchuria in 1931, the USSR extended support to China to protect the Manchurian province. The Soviet Union decisively defeated Japan in 1939 in the Nomonhan (a tiny landscape in Manchurian province) Incident as the Japan controlled Manchurian region and the neighbouring USSR backed Mongolia fought over the border conflicts. Here on, Japan decided to not have any confrontation with the USSR and allied with Britain, USA and other western partners.

  • Offshoots entangling the Yalta Conference

In 1945, the USA, USSR and Britain convened over the Yalta Conference to negotiate the post-war plans. The key outcome of the conference was the decision to permit the USSR to attack Japan as a gesture to appreciate Germany’s surrender in the war. Russia’s war on Japan was also rewarded with territorial concessions and influence for the former in the Far East. This was a strategic move by the allied powers to annihilate the axis powers. With this USSR not just aimed to regain the territories lost to Japan including the South Sakhalin and Kuril Islands but also aspired to spike its stakes and influence in the post-war geopolitical order.

As per the agreement, the USSR declared war on Japan on August 08, 1945, two days after the Hiroshima incident and a day before the bombings on Nagasaki. These series of atrocities against Japan by the allied powers came to a grinding halt with the surrender of Japan on 15th August 1945.

  • The pacification process

In the post-war era, Japan was in the complete custody of the USA. This annoyed the USSR, thus, it refused to sign the 1951 peace treaty that restored normalcy and peace between Japan and the Allied Powers. This prolonged the tense atmosphere between the USSR and Japan. However, in 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration was inked to end the hostility and re-establish diplomatic relations. This declaration also gave impetus to discuss a permanent peace treaty and resolve territorial apprehensions.

However, these peace efforts were derailed amidst the Cold War bipolarities. Also, Japan and Russia are unable to strike a practical and tangible peace treaty even to this day, due to their respective territorial claims over the Kuril Islands, in the Northern part of Japan.

  • The chaos during Cold War

The Japan-Russia tensions accelerated further as a proxy of the cold war bipolarity. Japan, which was an ally of the USA, was deemed by the latter as a bulwark to suspend communist expansionism in Asia. As a fallout of the Cold War, USSR made military build-up in the Pacific region in the vicinity of Japan. On the other hand, Japan was compelled by the United States to check the Soviet expansion in the Asia-Pacific in the aftermath of Soviet annexation of Afghanistan in 1979. During the Reagan administration in Washington DC, Tokyo sharply aligned with the US to propagate the narrative of ‘Soviet threat’. Japan welcomed the presence of the US military forces in the Western Pacific and pledged to thwart the perils propelling from the USSR camp.

In the 1980’s Tokyo imposed a series of economic sanctions on the USSR for the latter’s Afghan invasion. Japan continued to strongly oppose the stationing of the Soviet troops in the Kuril Island chain (the Northern territories) which was captured by the USSR during the ultimate days of the Second World War. Japan reiterated the Soviet presence in the Kuril Islands as evidence for the latter’s expansionist and unfair hegemonic motives.

With Mikhail Gorbachev assuming power as the President of the USSR, a comparatively flexible diplomatic stance was seen towards Japan. However, the deadlock over the suzerainty of Kuril Islands (Northern territories) was still a pivotal gridlock in the path of unlocking normalcy and peace among the nations and the leaders also emphasized that the economic and diplomatic deadlock cannot be rectified until the issue over the Kuril Islands is been solved. Meanwhile, even Japan didn’t express any strategic interest towards resolving disputes and restoring relations with the USSR and was highly tilted towards its western allies.

Post-Cold War: A Citation to Reset the Ties

With the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR, Boris Yelstin occupied the helm in the Russian Federation. President Yelstin met his Japanese counterpart Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and both of them resolved to navigate the territorial disputes over the Northern territories in a peaceful and mutually acceptable way. The leaders also unveiled the ambitious ‘Hashimoto-Yeltsin Plan’ in 1998 which aimed at promoting economic cooperation and financial assistance among the nations.

Despite spurring limited economic cooperation during this period specifically as an impact of personal bonhomie among the leaders, a lasting solution to the territorial disputes couldn’t be achieved. Infact, in 1998 Russia proposed to give Japan a special status over the Kuril Islands with Moscow being a transitory legal regime. Regardless of these efforts, an enduring solution to the historical territorial disputes couldn’t be realized due to change in leadership and other geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons. These territorial differences over the Kuril Islands (Northern territories) are a major reason for the freeze of relations in economic, trade and other realms, even for this day.

The Strategic Game of Alliances and Geopolitical Agilities

One of the significant impediments that are prevalent across the globe, for restoring the bilateral tensions between any two states, is the way in which the global power alliances and partnerships have been crafted. The rivalry between two nations can deepen not because of mere bilateral factors but also due to the larger geopolitical or geoeconomic repercussions.

  • The ripple effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict

With respect to Japan-Russia tensions, the relations between the two states have hit a new low, as a spill-over effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The 2022 Diplomatic Bluebook of Japan strongly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Then Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida claimed that ‘it can no longer carry-on the relations with Russia in the same way it used to’ thereby Tokyo joined other G-7 nations and imposed a series of stringent economic sanctions on Russia.

For example, it banned the ability of the IMF and World Bank to finance Russia. Japan joined the G-7 countries to isolate Russia from the international financial system and removed certain Russian banks from the SWIFT arrangements. It also prohibited the Japanese companies from making new investments in Russia and revoked MFN status acclaimed to Russia. Japan has also referred Moscow to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War, Tokyo also revived the debate with respect to the authority over the Northern Territories and has aggressively exclaimed that it is ‘an inherent of Japan, but is currently occupied by Russia illegally’. In retaliation, Russia has conducted military exercises in the disputed Islands of Northern territories and has fired missiles in the Sea of Japan. Further, Moscow has designated Japan as an ‘unfriendly country’ and has withdrawn from the ‘Japan-Russia Dialogue’. This reversion to a hard-line approach by both the nations has made the decades of ‘New Approach’ diplomatic efforts go in vain and futile and the relations between Tokyo and Moscow are lowest since the post-cold war world order.

  • Ignitions due to Geopolitical Nexus

The ideological affiliations of the respective states and the bloc politics indeed impact the bilateral relations. Though 21st century geopolitics is defined as multipolar and multi-alignment in nature, ideological and strategic tilt is definitely witnessed among the global power players. Such geopolitical dispositions severely impact on a broader spectrum, leading to security concerns, economic repercussions and other geopolitical vulnerabilities. The tensions between Japan and Russia are not indifferent from this geopolitical game.     

The spiking alliance between the USA & Japan and voicing out for the autonomy of Taiwan on the one hand, an ‘all weather partnership’ evolving between Russia and China on the other end, surge of relations between Russia and North Korea in terms of military and economic cooperation and rising geopolitical animosity and trade wars between the US and China are clearly encapsulating an ideological and geopolitical bifurcation in the Asia-Pacific domain. As an impact, the Russia-Japan tensions are also soaring to new heights who are technically placed in opposite geopolitical camps.

For example, Shinzo Abe’s ‘New Approach’ was frequently opposed by the Obama administration in Washington DC. Overcoming all the obstacles from both within the home and abroad Abe was firm in resetting ties with Russia. Infact, the core objective of Abe’s ‘New Approach’ towards Russia was not just to break the orthodoxy and restore relations with Moscow, but also had larger geopolitical ambitions. Abe perceived that by re-establishing ties with Russia the spiralling nexus between Moscow and Beijing can be broken; thereby the revolutionizing Chinese expansionism in Asia can be counterbalanced. However, Abe’s vision of restoring balance of power in the Asia Pacific wasn’t fruitful and with the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war the bilateral relations slipped down to much more awful frontiers.

Robert D. Kaplan in his renowned work “The Revenge of Geography’ exclaims, “Geography and history demonstrate that we can never discount Russia. Russia’s partial resurgence in our own age following the dissolution of the Soviet empire is part of an old story”. The historical tensions between Moscow and Tokyo, thus, cannot be ever understated. With Washington DC seeking to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and normal ties with Russia under Trump 2.0, Japan might encounter a newer set of challenges to align and balance its strategic interests with both the USA and Russia. With growing Chinese military might and maritime presence in the South China Sea and in other regions of East Asia and Beijing’s unhindered support to Russia and North Korea can further foil Japan’s interests and strategic autonomy in the region.

Not just that, any counter-measures, from Tokyo’s club, can ultimately make the entire Indo-Pacific and Asian landscape volatile, harming the collective security and balance of power of the region! ‘Anarchy’ being an unsaid rule of the international system, the sovereign geopolitical players, thus, be vigilant of the fact that the orthodox bilateral tensions should not manifest anywhere else in the world, in any form, either on land or in air or in the blue oceans. Instead, global peace, security and prosperity should be the ultimate motto of the geopolitical bulwarks either across respective geographic borders or in the larger geopolitical latitude.             

US To Bomb Iran Any Moment? Pentagon Deploys B-2 Bombers To Diego Garcia In A Clear Warning To Iran

The Pentagon has escalated its military posture, deploying at least six B-2 stealth bombers-constituting 30% of the U.S. Air Force’s entire fleet, to Diego Garcia, a strategic Indian Ocean base. This move, widely interpreted as a direct warning to Iran, comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have doubled down on threats against Iran and its regional proxies, as U.S. jets continue relentless airstrikes on Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Satellite images taken Tuesday by a private firm confirm the presence of the bombers on the island’s tarmac, alongside tankers, cargo aircraft, and several shelters that may be concealing additional warplanes. Separate images from Sunday revealed four B-2s and six support aircraft already stationed at the U.S.-British airbase, just 2,400 miles from Iran’s southern coast.

While Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell avoided direct mention of the B-2s, he confirmed an ongoing military buildup, stating that additional aircraft and “other air assets” were being sent to reinforce U.S. defensive posture in the region.

“The United States and its partners remain committed to regional security … and are prepared to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the region,” Parnell declared.

Military analysts are sounding the alarm. The deployment of these $2 billion stealth bombers is a calculated message to adversaries, particularly Iran.

“This is a direct warning—perhaps multiple warnings—to Iran,” said a former U.S. Air Force colonel. “One message is clear: Stop supporting the Houthis in Yemen. Another? The Trump administration is pressuring Tehran into nuclear negotiations, and if Iran refuses, it risks catastrophic consequences for its nuclear program.”

Since mid-March, the U.S. has intensified its military actions against the Houthis, launching airstrikes that, according to Yemen’s Houthi-run Health Ministry, have already killed at least 53 and wounded nearly 100. The strikes persist as Houthi militants target U.S. warships in the Red Sea, claiming their attacks are in solidarity with Gaza, currently under Israeli bombardment.

Adding fuel to the fire, a major controversy erupted last month when Hegseth accidentally leaked sensitive military strike details in an unsecured group chat—one that inadvertently included The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg.

Meanwhile, Trump has not minced words. In a blistering post on his Truth Social platform Tuesday, he issued a blunt threat:

“Stop shooting at U.S. ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran.”

Trump is also tightening the noose around Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On March 19, he issued an ultimatum – Tehran has two months to strike a deal or face severe consequences.

“There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I’m not looking to hurt Iran,” he told a news channel.

Iran, Pentagon

Iran, however, has flatly rejected direct negotiations.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “continues to make clear that, should Iran or its proxies threaten American personnel and interests in the region, the United States will take decisive action to defend our people,” Parnell said.

Military analyst, said the B-2 can carry the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, “a 30,000-pound bomb that is designed to destroy what we would call hardened and deeply buried targets.”

“Such targets would potentially include Iranian nuclear and weapons storage facilities,” the former US Air Force officer said.

The aviation analyst, noted that the six B-2s likely represent the entire deployable fleet of the aircraft.

Parnell, the Pentagon spokesperson, said the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, which has been carrying out strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen, will stay in the region through this month, though its deployment there was scheduled to have ended at the end of March.

It was also previously reported that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier would move to the Middle East after finishing an exercise in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Impact 
The deployment of six B-2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia signals a major escalation in U.S. military posturing against Iran. The implications of this move are significant and could trigger a series of geopolitical and military repercussions.

Possible Repercussions could include –
Heightened Military Tensions – The presence of these strategic bombers, capable of delivering precision nuclear and non-nuclear strikes, is a direct warning to Iran. This could escalate tensions in the already volatile Middle East, increasing the likelihood of miscalculations that could lead to open conflict.

Iranian Retaliation Through Proxies – Iran may respond asymmetrically through its network of regional allies, such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various militias in Iraq and Syria. We could see increased attacks on U.S. bases, Israeli assets, or shipping routes in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.

Strikes on U.S. Interests – Iran has previously targeted American military and diplomatic assets. The deployment of B-2 bombers may provoke retaliatory missile or drone strikes against U.S. military installations in the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria, or the UAE.

Economic Disruptions – Any escalation involving Iran risks disrupting global energy markets. Tehran could threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments, driving up crude prices and rattling financial markets.

Cyber Warfare & Covert Operations – Iran has advanced cyber warfare capabilities. A response might come in the form of cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, government systems, or financial institutions. Covert assassinations or sabotage operations against American allies could also be on the table.

Can the U.S. and Iran Avert a Military Confrontation? | Columbia News

How Iran is Likely to Respond?
Rather than being intimidated, Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, citing U.S. aggression as justification. Tehran has already resisted direct negotiations; this move could push it further toward nuclear brinkmanship.

The Houthis, already targeting U.S. and allied assets, may launch more sophisticated attacks on American warships or Israeli territory. Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, could also intensify hostilities on Israel’s northern border.

Iran could deepen its military cooperation with Moscow and Beijing, seeking advanced weaponry, intelligence-sharing, and economic lifelines to counteract U.S. pressure.

The Iranian leadership will likely use this deployment to rally domestic support against the U.S., portraying Washington as an aggressor. This could lead to nationalist sentiment overriding any push for diplomatic solutions.

Iran’s elite Quds Force might direct operations against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, while also pressuring Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel with indirect strikes to destabilize the region.

The Last Bit
This deployment is a clear signal that the U.S. is prepared for serious military action, but it may push Iran into a more aggressive stance rather than deterrence. If Iran perceives this as an imminent threat, it could preemptively strike U.S. targets. Alternatively, it could wait and retaliate in a deniable yet damaging manner through its proxy network.

A full-scale war is unlikely, hopefully both sides understand the catastrophic consequences but a prolonged cycle of tit-for-tat escalation is almost inevitable.

Israel Expands Military Operations In Gaza, Seizing ‘Large Areas’ And Forcing Evacuations. A Look At How Its Land Grabs Are Reshaping The Occupied West Bank

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced Wednesday a major expansion of military operations in Gaza, involving the seizure of large areas of land that will be “incorporated into Israel’s security zones.”

Katz stated that the operation would also include a large-scale evacuation of Gaza’s population from combat zones, though he did not provide specific details. The military aims to “crush and clear” terrorist infrastructure while securing more land under Israeli control.

As part of this expansion, Israel’s military spokesperson for Arabic media ordered residents in Gaza’s southern Rafah area to evacuate and move north.

Reports from last month suggested that Israel was preparing for a massive ground offensive, possibly involving tens of thousands of troops to occupy large parts of Gaza. However, Katz did not confirm whether additional troops would be deployed in the latest expansion.

The announcement coincides with continued Israeli airstrikes across Gaza. Overnight bombings in the southern part of the enclave killed at least 17 people, including women and children, according to hospital sources in Khan Younis. Many of the victims had already been displaced from Rafah.

Israel resumed its offensive two weeks ago, breaking a ceasefire with Hamas that had lasted for two months. The country has vowed to maintain a military presence in parts of Gaza until the remaining 24 hostages believed to be alive are released.

Since the renewed fighting began, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed, and the UN has warned of rapidly depleting food supplies in the enclave.

Under the leadership of Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israel’s military has been strategizing for a large-scale operation that could see an extended occupation of Gaza. However, prolonged military action faces pushback from segments of the Israeli public, many of whom are demanding a hostage deal over continued warfare.

The families of Israeli hostages expressed outrage over the expanded operation, accusing the government of prioritizing combat over securing the safe return of their loved ones.

“Instead of negotiating a deal to bring the hostages home, the government is sending more soldiers into Gaza to fight in the same places again and again,” the families’ forum stated, demanding a clear explanation from Israeli leadership.

Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar have been working to revive ceasefire talks. Hamas recently agreed to an Egyptian proposal that would see the release of five hostages, including American-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander, in exchange for a renewed truce. Israel has responded with a counteroffer, but negotiations remain ongoing.

Military Operations, GAZA, Israel, West Bank
Latest Developments

–Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz took to X (formerly Twitter) to announce an expansion of military operations in Gaza, aiming to ramp up pressure on Hamas.

–He urged Gazans to evacuate and “remove Hamas” as the military intensified its offensive. Meanwhile, Hamas has agreed to a recent ceasefire proposal that includes the release of five hostages, but Israel countered the offer, bringing negotiations to another deadlock.

–In Rafah, residents are once again fleeing after the IDF issued new evacuation warnings. The military’s Arabic-language spokesperson, Col. Avichay Adraee, stated on social media that IDF forces are “returning to fight with great force to eliminate the capabilities of terrorist organizations in these areas.” He urged civilians to move immediately to shelters in Al Mawasi for their safety.

–Since dawn, Israeli strikes have killed at least 21 people across Gaza. This follows an earlier wave of bombings on Eid-ul-Fitr, in which nearly 70 people lost their lives as Israel resumed its air campaign.

How Israel’s Land Seizures Are Reshaping the Occupied West Bank
While much of the world’s focus remains on Israel’s war in Gaza, a quieter but equally significant transformation is taking place in the occupied West Bank. Israel is rapidly redrawing its borders, pushing ahead with a strategy that appears to pave the way for full annexation.

Just two days after a ceasefire took effect in Gaza on January 21, the Israeli military escalated its operations across the West Bank, particularly in the northern regions. Bulldozers have flattened entire neighborhoods, displacing at least 40,000 Palestinians. In a move not seen since the Second Intifada, Israel has also reintroduced tank incursions and airstrikes in the area.

Israeli military says it is expanding West Bank operation - The Hindu

The West Bank at a Glance
Located west of the Jordan River, the occupied West Bank, known as al-Daffah in Arabic, spans 5,655 sq km (2,183 sq miles). It is roughly 15 times larger than Gaza and about the same size as the U.S. state of Delaware.

Since Israel’s military occupation began in 1967, Palestinian life in the West Bank has been defined by severe restrictions. From military checkpoints and arbitrary arrests to home demolitions and land seizures, the Israeli government has systematically expanded illegal settlements while tightening control over Palestinian movement.

The West Bank is home to approximately 3.3 million Palestinians, spread across 11 governorates. Hebron (al-Khalil) is the most populous, with about 842,000 residents, followed by Jerusalem (500,000), Nablus (440,000), Ramallah and el-Bireh (377,000), and Jenin (360,000).

Meanwhile, around 700,000 Israelis now live in illegal settlements built on Palestinian land—an ever-growing presence that underscores the ongoing territorial shift.

Why Is the Northern West Bank Being Targeted?
Israel’s ongoing military offensive, dubbed Operation Iron Wall, has zeroed in on the northern West Bank, particularly the governorates of Jenin and Tulkarem.

Unlike other areas of the West Bank, these regions have relatively fewer Israeli settlements and have long been strongholds of Palestinian resistance – making their annexation historically challenging. To counter this, Israel has intensified its military operations, carrying out systematic raids and large-scale demolitions to suppress resistance and tighten control.

Refugee camps have been hit especially hard. Since October 2023, the Tulkarem refugee camp – the second-largest in the West Bank – has seen the destruction of 205 structures, including homes, businesses, and agricultural facilities. Nur Shams camp followed with 174 demolitions, while Jenin camp lost 144 structures, peaking in August 2024 when 37 structures were leveled in a single month.

Meanwhile, Israeli settlements continue to expand at an unprecedented pace. According to Peace Now, an Israeli NGO, 2024 has already seen a record-breaking 48 new settlement outposts in the West Bank. This follows a trend from 2023, when 31 new outposts were established – 21 of them appearing in just six months, even before the events of October 7.

Israel deploys tanks in northern West Bank for 1st time in 2 decades as  offensive ramps up | Watch News Videos Online

Settler Violence
Beyond military operations, Israeli settlers have increasingly taken matters into their own hands, launching near-daily attacks on Palestinian communities, particularly in rural areas near settlement outposts. These settlers have blocked roads, destroyed water sources, and targeted Palestinian herding villages, forcing residents to flee.

In Khirbet Zanuta, a village in the southern West Bank, homes and water resources were razed, pushing residents out. In Nablus, eight Palestinian families – totaling 51 people – were forcibly displaced at gunpoint.

A report by Israeli human rights group Yesh Din, analyzing 1,664 police investigations into settler violence between 2005 and September 2023, found that –

–94% of cases were closed without indictment.

–Only 3% resulted in convictions.

–80% of investigations were dropped due to “lack of evidence” or failure to identify suspects.

This lack of accountability has fostered deep mistrust among Palestinians, with 58% of victims in 2023 choosing not to report crimes to Israeli authorities. Another human rights group, B’Tselem, describes settler violence as “Israel’s unofficial tool” for displacing Palestinians, enabled by a legal system that largely turns a blind eye.

Illegal Seizure of Palestinian Land
A June 2024 report by HaMoked, an Israeli human rights organization, reveals that Israel has significantly ramped up its control over the West Bank since October 2023, accelerating its path toward full annexation.

The scale of land appropriation has reached unprecedented levels. In 2024 alone, Israeli authorities classified 24,700 dunams (6,100 acres or 2,470 hectares) as “state land”—exceeding the 23,000 dunams annexed over the entire period from 2000 to 2023. Simultaneously, Israel formally recognized 68 illegal settlement outposts, providing them with infrastructure and further entrenching its control.

By transferring planning and demolition powers to his office, Smotrich has fast-tracked the forced displacement of Palestinians, collaborating with settlers to seize land, demolish homes, and legalize settlement outposts, tightening Israel’s grip on the territory.

According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), displacement in the West Bank has surged dramatically, with over 40,000 Palestinians forced from their homes—the largest wave of displacement since 1967. The scale of destruction and forced expulsion underscores a broader strategy: the systematic dismantling of Palestinian communities, as their presence poses a demographic challenge to Israel’s long-term ambitions.

All India Radio News on X: "Israel Expands Military Operation in West Bank,  Deploys Tanks to Jenin Read More: https://t.co/AVJMlFURvO  https://t.co/5pqMfblhV6" / X

A Unique Pattern in Jenin
Satellite imagery of Jenin reveals a new Israeli tactic not observed in Tulkarem: 14 earthen barriers have been constructed around the camp, with military vehicles positioned at key locations.

Meanwhile, movement restrictions across the West Bank have worsened. As of November 2024, the Israeli military had erected 793 checkpoints, with 60% concentrated in Hebron, Nablus, and Ramallah. These checkpoints severely hinder medical access, disrupt trade, and isolate Palestinian communities.

Open Calls for Annexation and Displacement
Despite rapid settlement expansion, Israel faces a key demographic challenge – Palestinian birth rates across the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel remain higher than those of Israeli settlers. Although the population numbers are now roughly equal, Israel’s policy efforts are increasingly geared toward reducing the Palestinian presence in strategically significant areas.

Meir Masri, a professor of geopolitics at Hebrew University, posted on social media that annexing the West Bank is “the greatest Zionist achievement since 1967” and must not be missed.

In sharp contrast, a 2025–2026 policy paper from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) warns that unilateral annexation would:

–Further isolate Israel on the global stage.

–Push Israel into a one-state reality, where Jews risk becoming a minority.

–Contradict core Zionist ideology, which seeks to maintain a Jewish-majority state.

While some Israeli officials push for aggressive annexation, others recognize that it could fundamentally reshape Israel’s political and demographic future, with consequences that extend far beyond the West Bank.

 

 

 

 

Vietnam’s Emergence as a Manufacturing Hub

By: Sandhya Ladwal, Research Analyst, GSDN

Vietnam: source Internet

In recent years, Vietnam has emerged as a dynamic player on the global manufacturing stage, capturing the attention of businesses and investors alike. With its strategic location in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is rapidly transforming into an attractive alternative to traditional manufacturing powerhouses. As companies seek to diversify their supply chains and minimize risks, the country’s robust infrastructure, favorable trade agreements, and competitive labor costs have positioned it as the new heart of global manufacturing. Vietnam is fast becoming a pivotal hub in the world of manufacturing.

Introduction

As the world grapples with shifting economic landscapes and the need for resilient supply chains, Vietnam has emerged as a formidable player in the arena of global manufacturing. With a unique blend of competitive labor costs, strategic geographic location, and government initiatives aimed at fostering foreign investment, Vietnam has positioned itself as a viable alternative to traditional manufacturing powerhouses like China. The Vietnamese government has invested heavily in modernizing transportation networks, enhancing logistics capabilities, and establishing free trade agreements that open the door to international markets. This proactive approach has not only attracted foreign direct investment but has also encouraged local businesses to innovate and scale their operations.

Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of diversification in global supply chains. Many companies are reevaluating their dependence on a single market, prompting them to seek out alternative manufacturing hubs.

Economic Growth of Vietnam

Vietnam’s rapid ascent as a manufacturing powerhouse is underpinned by several key economic growth drivers that have catalyzed its transformation into a global manufacturing hub. One of the most significant factors is the country’s strategic positioning in Southeast Asia, providing easy access to major shipping routes and trade markets. This geographical advantage allows manufacturers to streamline logistics, reduce costs, and enhance delivery times, making Vietnam an attractive option for both foreign and domestic investors.

Another crucial driver is the Vietnamese government’s commitment to economic reform and liberalization. The Doi Moi reforms initiated in the late 1980s have paved the way for a more market-oriented economy, encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) and facilitating the establishment of free trade agreements. Notably, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) have opened doors to new markets while reducing tariffs, creating a favorable environment for exports.

Furthermore, the ongoing shift in global supply chains—accelerated by factors such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic—has prompted many companies to diversify their production bases. As businesses seek to mitigate risks and reduce reliance on a single country, Vietnam has emerged as a preferred destination due to its competitive labor costs, improving infrastructure, and supportive business environment.

Foreign Direct Investment Attracting Global Players

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has emerged as a pivotal catalyst in Vietnam’s ascent as a global manufacturing powerhouse. As multinational corporations seek to diversify their supply chains and reduce reliance on traditional manufacturing hubs, Vietnam stands out as an attractive alternative due to its strategic location, competitive labor costs, and improving infrastructure.

The companies from various sectors ranging from electronics and textiles to automotive and consumer goods are increasingly pouring capital into Vietnam. Notable brands such as Samsung, Intel, and Nike have expanded their operations, contributing to a robust manufacturing ecosystem. This influx of investment has created jobs, technological transfer, and skill development, lifted the overall economic landscape and enhanced Vietnam’s competitive edge in the global market.

Moreover, Vietnam’s participation in numerous free trade agreements (FTAs) has opened doors to new markets, making it an even more enticing destination for FDI. By reducing tariffs and eliminating trade barriers, these agreements enable foreign companies to access not only the Vietnamese market but also broader Southeast Asian consumers. Vietnam into the global manufacturing spotlight. As the country continues to attract global players, it solidifies its position as a key player in the supply chain landscape, shaping the future of manufacturing on an international scale.

The Future of Vietnam’s Global Supply Chain

As we look toward the future, Vietnam stands poised to solidify its role as a key player in the global supply chain. The country has been experiencing a remarkable transformation, driven by a confluence of factors that position it as a formidable alternative to traditional manufacturing hubs like China. With its strategic location in Southeast Asia, a growing workforce, and favorable investment climate, Vietnam is attracting businesses looking to diversify their supply chains and reduce dependency on any single market.

Vietnam’s commitment to improving its infrastructure is paving the way for more efficient logistics and transportation networks. The government has invested heavily in upgrading ports, roads, and railways, which are crucial for facilitating the swift movement of goods. This enhanced connectivity not only supports domestic businesses but also positions Vietnam as an attractive location for foreign direct investment (FDI), as companies seek to capitalize on streamlined supply chains.

Trade agreements are also playing a pivotal role in Vietnam’s ascent. The country has entered into numerous free trade agreements (FTAs) with key markets, including the European Union and countries within the Asia-Pacific region. These agreements reduce tariffs and open up new markets for Vietnamese exports, further integrating the country into the global economy. As companies around the world seek to mitigate risks and embrace a more resilient supply chain strategy, Vietnam’s position as a reliable manufacturing partner will only grow stronger.

Vietnam is set to emerge as a cornerstone of global production, driving economic growth and development for years to come. By embracing strategic investments and fostering a culture of innovation, Vietnam is not just adapting to the global market is shaping them.

Conclusion

The exploration of Vietnam’s remarkable ascent as the new heart of global manufacturing, it’s clear that this dynamic nation has positioned itself as a formidable player on the world stage. With its strategic geographical location, a young and skilled workforce, and a commitment to innovation and sustainability, Vietnam is not just an alternative to traditional manufacturing hubs; it is redefining the landscape of global production. As businesses and investors turn their eyes towards this vibrant economy, the potential for growth and collaboration is immense. Whether you’re an entrepreneur seeking new opportunities or a consumer curious about the origins of your favorite products, Vietnam’s rise is a story worth watching.

It’s Not Just Trump’s America, Europe Joins The Anti Immigration Wave In 2025. 10 Countries That Are Fueling The Push

The year 2024-25 has ushered in two powerful waves – Donald Trump’s tariff war and an intensifying anti immigration movement in Europe, particularly against Muslims.

Across the continent, immigration and asylum policies have taken a sharp turn, with governments tightening restrictions and ramping up deportations particularly – Muslims, who face increasing scrutiny, not just from political authorities but also from a rising tide of nationalist sentiment.

These policy shifts have ignited global debates over human rights, cultural integration, and national security. Several European nations are actively enforcing deportation measures targeting individuals from Muslim-majority countries, especially those whose asylum claims have been denied or who are deemed threats to public safety. Meanwhile, others have adopted a more indirect approach, making life increasingly difficult for communities through policies that limit access to essential services or create hostile living conditions that encourage voluntary departure.

The motivations behind these actions vary – from economic pressures and populist political agendas to deep-seated concerns over national security and integration challenges. What remains clear, however, is that Europe’s migration crackdown is gaining momentum, paralleling the highly publicized anti-immigration stance of Donald Trump in the U.S.

Trump’s Crackdown

For months now, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has spearheaded a well-publicized migration crackdown. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have turned deportations into a media spectacle – broadcasting videos of chained deportees and publishing their names to instill fear.

More recently, the Trump administration has expanded its deportation efforts to include foreign nationals with legal status in the U.S., including academics and professionals. The president has pledged to deport 11 million people, more than double the number removed under President Joe Biden and surpassing even Barack Obama’s two terms, during which 5.3 million people were deported.

While much of the world’s attention remains fixated on Trump’s aggressive anti-migration policies, Europe has been quietly implementing its own ruthless crackdown, one that is less visible yet equally severe.

Anti Immigration

Europe’s Silent Yet Ruthless Crackdown

In the first nine months of 2024, EU member states issued 327,880 expulsion orders, forcibly removing 27,740 people between July and September alone. The deportations have accelerated as the European Union enforces the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which was passed in December 2023 and came into effect in June 2024.

Under this pact, EU nations are fast-tracking removals, expanding detention centers, and strengthening cooperation with third countries to facilitate deportations. However, this is not just about EU member states.

The European Union is also turning Balkan countries (those aspiring to join the EU) into border zones, pressuring them into enforcing strict migration controls as part of their accession requirements. Unlike EU members, these Balkan states had no say in shaping the migration pact yet are forced to comply under what many see as modern-day colonial blackmail.

At the December 2024 EU-Western Balkans Summit, the EU made its expectations clear –

“We need to strengthen our cooperation and strategic partnerships in migration management, which is a shared challenge and responsibility and a key priority.”

This aligns with the EU’s broader strategy of externalizing migration control, reinforcing its borders while shifting responsibility for human rights violations onto non-EU nations. Central to this approach is the establishment of ‘return hubs’ – facilities near or beyond EU borders designed to warehouse unwanted migrants.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been a vocal advocate of this model, which is already in motion. Migrants are being sent to the Balkans, Turkey, and North Africa, with Frontex (the EU’s border agency) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) playing key roles in these removals.

Croatia: 3 border agents suspended for anti-migrant violence - InfoMigrants

Croatia. The EU’s Migration Gatekeeper

Croatia, an EU member state has emerged as a key enforcer of the EU’s migration regime. Over the years, Croatian authorities have normalized pushbacks, leading to deaths, injuries, and severe human rights violations. Rather than addressing these issues, the EU rewarded Croatia, along with Bulgaria and Romania, by granting them Schengen membership, allowing for free movement within the bloc.

Meanwhile, EU states have strengthened readmission agreements, bilateral deals that allow deportation to a migrant’s country of origin or transit. As a result, the Balkans have effectively become a dumping ground for migrants that the EU seeks to expel.

Since 2020, Croatian authorities have remained tight-lipped about migration control reports. However, in January 2024, Minister of Interior Davor Bozinović revealed that border police had prevented 71,000 “illegal entries” into Croatia.

In 2023 alone, Croatian authorities pushed back 4,265 people into Bosnia, which—thanks to EU financial assistance—then deported 893 migrants to their home countries. Additionally, 96 migrants left through the IOM’s controversial “voluntary return” program, which scholars have described as a disguised deportation scheme.

The implementation of the EU’s new migration pact will likely intensify the brutality faced by asylum seekers attempting to enter Croatia, and countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia.

This pact allocates millions of euros to support policies and technologies that will directly fuel the dehumanization of migrants. The increased funding will empower Frontex, the European border and coast guard agency, which has long been accused of complicity in illegal pushbacks and human rights abuses. Frontex’s annual budget for deportation-related expenses alone has ballooned to €18 million ($19.5 million), underscoring the EU’s growing focus on border enforcement over humanitarian concerns.

Germany's far right rides high on anti-immigration, anti-green agenda |  Reuters

10 Countries Leading the Way in Controversial Deportation Policies

1) Germany: Known for its open-door policy following the 2015 migrant crisis, Germany has taken a dramatic shift toward tightening its immigration controls.

In September 2024, Germany resumed deportations to Afghanistan, sending 28 Afghan nationals back to a country still under Taliban rule. This marked the first deportation to Afghanistan since the Taliban regained control in 2021.

Germany’s government has focused on accelerating deportations for individuals convicted of crimes or deemed to be threats to public safety. To support these efforts, €1 billion was allocated in 2024 to streamline the deportation process, increase detention capacity, and enhance cooperation with countries of origin.

The aim is to deport 100,000 rejected asylum seekers by the end of 2025. While the government defends these measures as essential for public safety and maintaining trust in the immigration system, critics argue that deportations to volatile regions like Afghanistan violate international human rights standards.

Organizations like Amnesty International caution that such blanket deportation policies fail to consider individual circumstances, raising serious concerns about the potential risks asylum seekers face upon return.

Germany’s policy shift mirrors wider European trends, as more nations adopt harsher measures to manage migration flows.

Swedish voters boost anti-immigration party amid high crime | AP News

2) Sweden: Once hailed as a model of progressive immigration policy, Sweden has surprised many in 2024 with its hardline approach to deportations.

Responding to rising political pressure and increasing concerns over integration, the Swedish government has aggressively pursued the deportation of rejected asylum seekers, primarily from Muslim-majority countries. Between January and November 2024, Sweden expelled 15,000 individuals, a sharp increase from the previous year. This includes asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

The government argues that these measures are necessary to address growing public unrest, economic strain, and integration challenges. The policy shift also aligns with a €200 million allocation to strengthen border controls and expedite deportations.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has emphasized the importance of national cohesion, citing high-profile incidents linked to migration as justification for the stricter policies. However, critics warn that Sweden risks tarnishing its reputation as a haven for those fleeing persecution.

Human rights organizations argue the psychological toll on families torn apart by deportations and the growing concerns about racial profiling. Despite the controversy, Sweden’s approach has found resonance in neighboring countries, reflecting a regional shift toward tougher immigration policies.

Immigration Politics: Refugees in Turkey and the 2023 Elections | Heinrich  Böll Stiftung | Washington, DC Office - USA, Canada, Global Dialogue

3) Turkey – a nation positioned at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, has played a pivotal role in the migration crisis. However, its recent actions have sparked controversy, especially regarding the deportation of vulnerable groups such as Uyghur Muslims and Syrian refugees.

Turkey has significantly altered its stance in 2024.Once known for its open-door policy,  Reports from human rights organizations estimate that over 100 Uyghurs have been forcibly removed this year alone. Despite Turkey’s past vocal support for Uyghur rights, many of these deportations have been carried out under the pretext of national security. Activists claim that Uyghurs sent to third countries often find themselves eventually returned to China, raising serious human rights concerns.

Additionally, Turkey has intensified its crackdown on undocumented migrants and asylum seekers. Between January and October 2024, Turkish authorities apprehended over 160,000 migrants, deporting thousands back to Afghanistan, Syria, and other conflict-ridden nations. This aligns with Turkey’s 2021 repatriation agreement with the Taliban, which facilitates the return of Afghan nationals under specific conditions. Critics argue that such deportations violate international asylum laws, putting returnees at grave risk.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan defends these policies, citing the need to preserve Turkey’s economic stability and social cohesion amid rising anti-migrant sentiment. In response, the government has allocated an additional $150 million this year to enhance border security and expand detention facilities. Turkey’s shifting migration policies are not only reshaping its domestic landscape but also influencing migration strategies across Europe and beyond.

Transnationalization of Anti-Immigration Movements in Europe - Project Now  Funded – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

4. The European Union – The European Union’s stance on migration in 2024 has grown increasingly hardline, marking a significant departure from its traditional humanitarian commitments. A coalition of 17 EU member states has spearheaded a paradigm shift in deportation practices, pushing for stricter measures to expedite removals.

In October 2024 alone, EU nations collectively deported 25,000 rejected asylum seekers, many from Muslim-majority countries like Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia. The bloc has committed 2.5 billion euros to enhance border security, speed up asylum reviews, and strengthen return agreements with third countries. Notably, controversial deals with Libya and Tunisia have drawn widespread criticism, as these nations have faced accusations of human rights abuses against migrants.

Rising anti-immigrant sentiment, economic pressures, and concerns over integration have fueled this shift. Countries like Austria, Hungary, and Italy have been at the forefront, advocating for policies aimed at protecting what they describe as European identity. This has resulted in the establishment of detention centers and an expansion of mass deportations—practices that human rights organizations argue violate international standards.

However, not all EU states align with this approach. Nations such as Spain and Portugal have opposed the bloc’s increasingly restrictive migration policies, emphasizing the need to address the root causes of displacement in migrants’ home countries.

5. United States – often celebrated as a land of opportunity and cultural melting pot, is facing increasing criticism over its immigration policies, especially those affecting Muslim migrants. In 2024-25, the U.S. has continued to enforce stringent immigration measures, which are rooted in a complex mix of national security concerns, political pressure, and ongoing debates about identity and inclusivity.

6. Australia – an island nation surrounded by water, has long maintained one of the strictest immigration policies in the world.

In 2024, this hardline stance continues, with particularly severe consequences for Muslim migrants and asylum seekers. Australia’s offshore detention policy, which remains a cornerstone of its immigration system, has resulted in over 1,200 individuals being held in detention facilities on Nauru and in Papua New Guinea. Many of these detainees come from Muslim-majority nations like Afghanistan, Iran, and Sri Lanka.

To support these facilities and enforce its “Stop the Boats” policy, the Australian government has allocated 4.5 billion Australian dollars (about 2.9 billion USD) in 2024. This funding maintains offshore detention and supports deportations.

The debate around the repatriation of Australian women and children from Syrian refugee camps has intensified. Over 60 individuals, many of whom have connections to former ISIS members, are awaiting decisions about their fate. Security experts urge caution, emphasizing the potential risks of reintegrating individuals with extremist affiliations. Meanwhile, human rights organizations are calling for action to prioritize the welfare of children and bring them back swiftly.

In 2024, Australia has seen a sharp increase in deportations, with over 3,000 rejected asylum seekers being removed, many of whom are sent back to volatile regions. This policy reflects Australia’s broader emphasis on protecting its borders, but it has also faced significant criticism for its lack of transparency and fairness in asylum processing. As global migration trends shift towards stricter policies, Australia’s immigration system remains a key player, shaping discussions on border integrity versus humanitarian obligations.

France: Protesters oppose move to disband anti-migrant group | AP News

7. France – a nation that takes great pride in its commitment to secularism and universal values, has found itself struggling with the complex intersection of immigration and national identity.

In 2024, France has adopted one of Europe’s most stringent approaches to immigration, with Muslim migrants often at the center of these policies. The government has ramped up deportations, targeting individuals deemed a threat to national security. Over 14,000 people were deported in 2024, with 3,500 of those being Muslims accused of radicalization or criminal activity.

This shift aligns with France’s 800 million euro investment in border security and the expedited processing of deportations. High-profile cases, such as the expulsion of imams accused of promoting extremist views, underscore the government’s commitment to safeguarding public order.

France’s controversial separatism law, enacted in 2021, continues to influence immigration policies. It allows authorities to monitor and shut down organizations suspected of undermining French values, often targeting Muslim associations.

Critics argue that these policies disproportionately affect Muslims, further alienating the 5.4 million-strong Muslim community, the largest in Western Europe.

Activists and human rights groups have warned that these measures are eroding trust and fueling resentment, particularly among second-generation immigrants.

Sweden, Denmark introduce border checks to stem migrant flow | The Seattle  Times
8. Denmark,  often celebrated as one of the happiest countries in the world, has adopted some of the harshest immigration policies in 2024, particularly impacting Muslim migrants. Known for its robust social welfare system and progressive values, Denmark’s stance on immigration has become a surprising point of contention.

The country’s “zero asylum” policy, introduced in 2021, aims to eliminate new asylum seekers entirely. The government has forged controversial agreements with Rwanda and other third countries to transfer asylum applicants for processing.

In 2024 alone, more than 1,700 individuals – many from Muslim-majority nations like Syria and Afghanistan, were sent to such facilities. Critics argue that these policies violate international asylum rights, but the Danish government insists that they are necessary to maintain societal stability.

This year, Denmark deported 6,000 rejected asylum seekers, a 40% increase compared to 2023. The Danish government allocated 450 million euros to bolster border controls and expedite deportation processes.

Authorities are also intensifying their crackdown on Islamic organizations, with several closures in 2024, citing accusations of promoting extremism. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has defended these measures, claiming that they are essential for preserving Denmark’s cultural identity. However, human rights organizations have raised concerns that these actions could deepen divisions and alienate migrant communities.

9. Austria: a small landlocked country at the crossroads of major migration routes, is one of Europe’s focal points in the ongoing migration crisis. With a population of just nine million, Austria has implemented some of the continent’s most restrictive deportation policies in 2024.

The government argues that it has reached its capacity to accommodate new arrivals, particularly from Muslim-majority countries. In 2024, Austria deported over 10,000 rejected asylum seekers, the majority of whom came from Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq.

The government has allocated €600 million to expand detention facilities and enhance cooperation with countries of origin to ensure efficient deportations. A controversial law passed in 2023 allows for deportations even to conflict zones, provided the government deems the region partially safe.

Chancellor Karl Nehammer has emphasized that these measures are essential for safeguarding Austria’s national security and social cohesion. Public support for these tough immigration policies is high, with 64% of Austrians backing stricter immigration laws, according to a 2024 poll.

However, human rights groups argue that Austria’s approach undermines the rights of asylum seekers, especially when deportees are sent back to dangerous conditions in their home countries. Muslims, who make up roughly 8% of Austria’s population, increasingly feel marginalized.

Surveillance of Islamic organizations and the closure of mosques have heightened tensions within the community. Critics warn that these policies could worsen divisions and hinder successful integration. Austria’s stance reflects broader European trends, where the priority is often on security rather than humanitarian concerns.

Hungary: Bill Makes Aiding Migrants a Crime | Human Rights Watch

10 Hungary: has become a symbol of anti-immigration sentiment in Europe. With one of the smallest Muslim populations in Europe, Hungary has implemented some of the harshest anti-immigration policies in 2024.

The country’s southern border, reinforced with razor wire fences and surveillance, epitomizes its hardline approach to migration. In 2024, Hungary deported over 5,000 asylum seekers, many from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The government has also criminalized the act of assisting undocumented migrants, imposing fines and prison sentences on those who provide aid.

Orbán’s administration justifies these measures as necessary for protecting Hungary’s Christian heritage and national security. The government has invested $1.1 billion in 2024 to strengthen border controls and enhance deportation logistics. Critics argue that Hungary’s policies violate EU asylum laws and international human rights standards, particularly since deportees are often sent back to unsafe regions.

Hungary’s approach has been widely condemned, with the European Court of Justice challenging the legality of Hungary’s pushbacks and detention practices. Nonetheless, Orbán’s policies continue to enjoy strong support domestically, with over 70% of Hungarians favoring stricter immigration controls.

 

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