By: Pragathi Kowndinya, Research Analyst, GSDN
An Enigma over the Middle East Ceasefires
Middle East, a pivotal player in the geopolitical architecture of the 21st century. A region engulfed by the Mediterranean Sea in the north and Arabian Peninsula in the south acts as a key corridor to connect Asia, Africa and Europe. The Middle Eastern sphere also encompasses Bab al-Mandab Strait and Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Caspian Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf that are strategic maritime zones to sustain world trade and transit. The soaring richness of the region in crucial and strategically vital oil and other natural resources is prerequisite to nourish the spiking energy demands of the world states. A secure and stable Middle East also helps to nurture the larger regional security of Asia and beyond. Yet, this geographically, geopolitically and strategically imperative region of the Middle East is engrossed in existential conflicts for decades. One such embroiling friction is the Israel-Palestine conflict that is causing regional repercussions and pushing the entire expanse of the Middle East into geopolitical fragility and humanitarian catastrophe.
The current conundrum in the conflict
The latest Israel-Hamas conflict broke out on 7th October, 2023 with Hamas launching coordinated attacks on Israel that killed more than 1,200 civilians. The 15 months war transcended as one of the world’s deadliest conflicts in the current era that has killed more than 45,000 people in the narrow Gaza strip, millions of people being internally displaced and the region implicated as uninhabitable. After witnessing such a devastating political and humanitarian crisis, both sides have reached a ‘temporary ceasefire’ deal. The truce reached after intense negotiations mediated by the USA, Qatar and Egypt, came into effect on 19th January, 2025, but is described as a ‘fragile ceasefire’.
The ceasefire entails 3 phases. In the maiden phase Israel and Hamas should exchange the hostages and prisoners and also facilitate the movement of humanitarian aid for the distressed population of Gaza. In the second phase, the remaining hostages will be exchanged including the detained male Israeli soldiers. The Israeli armed forces stationed in Gaza will also be removed and the temporary ceasefire will be evolved into a permanent truce. In the third and ultimate phase of the agreement, remains of the killed hostages will be swapped and the process of reconstruction and development of the devastated Gaza will commence.
The first phase of the ceasefire is currently operationalized. Hamas and Israel have concluded the sixth round of hostages and prisoner exchange respectively and more than 10,000 trucks of humanitarian aid have reached the shattered lanes of the Gaza strip. Israeli forces have departed from the Netzarim Corridor, a military zone carved to separate northern and southern Gaza and millions of displaced Palestinians are returning to the northern part of the of Gaza. Despite these positive developments as per the norms of the ceasefire agreement, there exists a lot of loopholes and apprehension about the success of the ceasefire in the long run.
Both the warring parties have indulged in suspicion and blame game. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exclaimed that the ‘gates of hell would be open’ if Hamas didn’t release the remaining hostages and it would resume the military operations in Gaza. On the other hand, Hamas militancy has cited that Israel has violated the obligations in the agreement, has interrupted the entry of humanitarian trucks into the region and is also continuing bombardments on the Palestinian province. The USA, an ardent ally of Israel continues its unhindered support to the Jewish state with the supply of arms, ammunition and other assistance inspite of being a key stakeholder in the ceasefire negotiating table. In this background, the strength and durability of the ceasefire are under severe attrition and the future of the truce is said to be bizarre. Will the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas strike a permanent triumph? Will the warring parties reach an ultimate understanding? Whether lasting peace, security and stability be reached in West Asia and beyond? Let us decipher!
Analyzing from historical experiences
The Israel-Palestine conflict is not a new phenomenon in the geopolitical spectrum. Both the regions have been at loggerheads since 1948 when the region was fragmented into a Jewish state of Israel and an Arab state of Palestine as per the Balfour Declaration passed by the British, who were an imperial power in the region. This partition ignited the first Arab-Israeli War in 1948. The war ended with the Israeli victory over the region, wherein they captured 50% of more land than what was predetermined during the partition.
Again in 1967, the Six-Day war broke out when Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria and East Jerusalem from Jordan and Gaza strip from Egypt. These series of unsolvable contentions led to the signing of Camp David Accords in 1978 brokered by the USA. The framework gave an impetus to Israel and its neighbours to negotiate a solution to the ‘Palestinian problem’ and establish a lasting peace and security in the region. 5 decades since the signing of the accords, the solution for the Palestinian problem has reached a stalemate and the conflict is ever spiralling.
With the formation of Hamas in 1987, the conflict multiplied with greater intensity. The demand for a sovereign Palestinian state reached a boiling point during 1987 that resulted in the First Intifada (Palestinian Uprising) between the militants and the Israeli Army. The intifada ended in 1993 with the signing of Oslo Accords, which gave a framework for peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine. Despite these efforts, Israel continued to annex and build infrastructure in the occupied Palestinian territory and even Hamas indulged in recurring militancy activities. Thus, before the peace process could materialize the second intifada was revolutionized in 2000 and continued upto 2005.
In 2006, the Second Lebanon War broke out between Israel and Hezbollah (an Iran backed organisation operating from Lebanon which strongly refutes Israeli occupation in the Gaza strip, West Bank and advocates for Palestinian liberation). With the growing grip of Hamas and other non-state actors over the region there were a series of armed conflicts with Israel in 2008, 2012, 2014 and a large-scale military strife even in 2021 as well. These historical conflicts illustrate the magnitude of the hostility between the warring parties and how peculiar & perishable the agreements are! Historical evidence reflects the fact that even amidst high voltage negotiations and mediations, finding a lasting solution to the Palestinian question is a herculean task.
A tenuous truce and treacherous camps
In the latest phase of conflict that broke out in 2023 October, the world has witnessed a massive scale of destruction and humanitarian havoc along with sharp political antagonism among the regional and global geopolitical actors. Though a ceasefire is achieved after transforming the tiny Gaza strip into a living graveyard, the stable future of the truce is still an enigma. The political ambitions of the warring nations, the stingy attitude of the stakeholders is making the truce and humanitarian causes to be stuck in a geopolitical jigsaw.
The Israeli Prime Minister reiterates that his nation has the right to resume the war if the norms of the ceasefire are violated by the other side. It says resumption of war is inevitable if Hamas doesn’t release all the hostages. On the other end, Hamas asserts that it is committed to the agreement, however it is Israel who is violating the ceasefire. For example, Israel recently condemned the Hamas action as ‘cruel and malicious violation’ of the agreement as Hamas gave the body of a non-identified deceased person instead of the body of an Israeli woman and Israel pledged to take revenge for the misdeeds of the Hamas. Such repeated accusations and mutual suspicion, spikes doubt about the sustainability of the ceasefire and fails the aspirations towards a long-term stability and solution for the ‘Palestinian problem’, beyond mere hostage exchanges.
The USA impetus in the Middle East
The USA, a time-tested ally of Israel, is driving the geopolitical circumstances of the Middle East with its hegemonic policies. Reports claim that the US has spent more than US$ 18 billion on military aid to Israel since October 7, 2023. The US has supplied artillery shells, military aircrafts, anti-missile systems, fighter jets, warships and about 40,000 additional and nearly 900 kgs of bombs to Israel, thus fuelling the war ambitions of the latter. Infact, Israel is the biggest recipient of the USA’s military aid. The USA, being the permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has used its veto power to provide diplomatic cover to Israel. Since the war broke out in 2023, the USA has vetoed numerous resolutions that demanded for a ceasefire in Gaza. Infact, since 1970, the USA has used its veto power more than 40 times against the UN resolutions on Israel.
The USA also has had a considerable military presence in the Middle East since decades. However, it has drastically increased since 2024. The USA is conducting anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea against the militants and also coordinated operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen in the name of counter-terrorism. This heightened presence of the USA and unhindered support to Israel has irked the regional actors that has further fuelled animosity among the actors and has created an atmosphere of tension and uneasiness.
The Trump 2.0 administration though advocated for a ceasefire, the supply of arms and ammunition to Israel hasn’t been discontinued. Also, the latest proposal by the USA for the redevelopment of Gaza has created a global outcry. The plan of the USA is to completely take over the region and evacuate the Gaza population to neighbouring states and indulge in the reconstruction process. This has created an outrage in the Middle East and the states have exhibited a strong displeasure to the US plan. Trump has also warned that the ‘hell would break loose’ if Hamas failed to release all the hostages.
These actions by the USA have not just created a rift between Israel and other regional actors but also are a factor to further ripe the conflicts in the Middle Eastern Canvas. The American factor, thus, is a determinant that impacts the future of the ceasefire. The USA’s long standing animosity & contentions with Iran, its unwavering aid to Israel, the US’s actions on foreign soil in the name of counter-terrorism, humanity and development, its hegemonic attitude and jumping into decisions unilaterally without taking the consensus of all the regional stakeholders can lead to a situation of security dilemma in the region. As an impact the sustainability of the ceasefire is at stake. The state and non-state actors will be on the brink of escalating the war again, with long-term solutions to the historical problem being vague and faint.
Regional responses and success of ceasefire
The regional players of West Asia have a diversified approach to the crisis. From Iran to Saudi Arabia to Israel every actor is pulling the Middle Eastern geopolitical jigsaw in diverging directions. For example, the US-Israel alliance’s antagonism towards Iran has led to many regional ramifications and proxy wars since the break out of Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023. The popular ‘Octopus doctrine’ illustrates how Iran, similar to the head of an Octopus, is navigating its various legs i.e. the non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis etc. This axis of Iran and the US-Israel alliance are always at odds. In the pretext of the latest Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus in April, 2024, which was a clear violation of Iranian sovereignty. In retaliation Iran launched direct attacks on Israel by firing more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles. This brought the Middle East to the brink of a full-scale regional war.
Thus, the further intrusion of the US in Middle East politics and arriving at unilateral decisions without considering all stakeholders of the region will linger the hostile scenario and weaken the strength of the ceasefire. For example, Iran-backed Houthis rebels in Yemen claimed to launch an attack on Israel if the US and Israel materialize their plan to redevelop Gaza by evacuating the population. The Saudi Arabia, UAE and other GCC nations also have expressed their distress against Israel’s unmindful and unrestrained attacks on Gaza. They have championed the cause of Palestinian statehood and have reiterated that restoration of bilateral relations is not possible until a solution is found for the Palestinian problem. Lately, in order to express their non-compliance against the US’s plan on Gaza, Saudi Arabia hosted a conclave with the six GCC states along with Egypt and Jordan. Riyadh, along with advocating for regional peace and stability, firmly upheld that the ‘two-state’ solution is the ultimate remedy for the Palestinian crisis and not the owning or annexation of the region by the USA.
This polarized political landscape of the Middle East can pour down the prospects of the ceasefire. The US-Israel nexus, The Iran and other militant group’s axis, supply of military aid and ammunition to the warring blocs, fragmented opinions of other regional actors can derail the threshold to reach a consolidated and sustainable decision on the Palestinian cause. The ceasefire is yet in its first phase and thus far has witnessed many violations leading to accusations and warning of re-escalation of war from both the parties. Will the ceasefire, thus, act as a stepping stone to draft a long-term solution beyond mere exchange of hostages is a grave concern.
The current era, characterized by a ‘realist’ way of geopolitics, stands as a synonym for expansionist attributes, security dilemma and discredit for international law and norms by the member states. Amidst these upheavals, geopolitical actors should be prudent of the consequences of the geopolitical rivalry because, as neo-realist scholar Kenneth Waltz says, “Asking who won a war is like asking who won the San Francisco earthquake. That in war there is no victory but only varying degrees of defeat”. Realizing this, the stakeholders of the Middle East ceasefire, thus, have to work in tandem to accomplish the goal of hostage exchanges and should address the humanitarian causes.
Successfully executing these initial goals, should spur the momentum further to recede from the occupied territories and respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US shouldn’t indulge in the geopolitics of West Asia as the region is completely extraneous and not proximal to the American geography. Though, the US has to protect its trade, defence and other interests in the region that cannot be at the cost of the Middle East’s sovereignty. Simultaneously the US, Iran or any other state shouldn’t pool arms and ammunition to Israel or any other non-state actors. That will automatically decelerate the thrust of the waging parties. All stakeholders should work at the negotiating table to reach a lasting solution for the ‘Palestinian problem’.
Such a progressive action can definitely yield regional peace and security in the long run. But, beyond hostage exchanges does a ceasefire really have the ability to sustain these idealistic goals for a prolonged duration, when the geopolitical game is actually waged on realist principles! Considering the historical experiences and the hostile atmosphere still hanging on the Middle Eastern latitude, the answer is an ‘enigma’!
Facts brought out nicely