I don’t know how we are all so surprised by civilian deaths. In any conflict, civilians die, but naturally. They are helpless, shelterless and most vulnerable.
Even when we operate with utmost care in the Counter Insurgency Operations, civilians die. In one particular operation, a small girl almost lost her life when she was caught in the crossfire with two terrorists in the jungles of Shalnar in Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Despite best practices that we followed in the battalion that I was serving in, I thought she was gone. But during the search for bodies, we found her safe in the corn field adjoining her home and I just took her in my arms and hugged her till eternity.
Besides there’s collateral damage to property which is unavoidable because they get into civilian houses and govt property. So, civilians dying is as much collateral damage as damage to any property.
In conventional wars the damage and death increase manifolds. In the World War II, the total civilian deaths could easily cross 50 million, if not more. Germany and Japan alone would have lost 2 million if not more, in my opinion. Where were the human rights then? So why the bleeding hearts now? When civilians remain mute spectators and do not stand up to stupid regimes, even if of their own race and religion, death is surely to follow. The Gazans and Palestinians have supported Hamas, willingly or tacitly just like the Germans supported Hitler during his reign. A few good souls here or there is immaterial. They’ll all face the wrath of the War! While the terrorists and non-state actors do it openly, the states and it’s military and covert organs may do it either unwittingly or deliberately, and then deny it.
War is ugly. War is however necessary, and there’s nothing to repent.
There’s no white, no black, there’s just grey!
About the Author
Commissioned in 1991, Brig KGK Nair, SM (Retd) is an alumnus of IMA, Dehradun. He has commanded an Artillery Brigade in eastern Arunachal Pradesh as well as a Corps Artillery Brigade in Punjab. He has extensive field experience, having served in Siachen, Jammu & Kashmir as well as in North East. He specialised in Precise Intelligence based Operations during his tenure with the Rashtriya Rifles and was also twice awarded for Gallantry including a Sena Medal. The views expressed are personal. He tweets at @KrishnarajNair6
Mr Bimal Bora, Minister of Industries and Commerce, Government of Assam declaring the East Tech 2023 open: source Author
Indian Army’s Eastern Command organised a spectacular and splendid display of the might of the Indian Military Industrial Complex through the East Tech 2023 in Guwahati, the capital of the Indian state of Assam on October 10-11, 2023.
The motto of East Tech 2023 was “Soldering Through Self Reliance”, which was an apt and appropriate motto keeping in view the strides that India has made in the field of indigenous defence manufacturing as per the vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who gave the iconic slogans of Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India in 2014 and 2020 respectively.
Lieutenant General RP Kalita, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Eastern Command in his welcome address stated that the Eastern Command is the largest operational command of the Indian Army and it operates in all kinds of terrain. The Eastern Command has been hand-holding and supporting all the ventures of the indigenous defence manufacturers which will propel India to further make the latest and the best defence weapon systems. He also said that 200 firms are taking part in displaying their military hardware in East Tech 2023. The General Officer also added that East Tech 2022 which was held in Kolkata last year, was a resounding success and after that event, 37 products have been identified for use in the Eastern Command and the process is being taken forward.
Mr Bimal Bora, Industries and Commerce Minister, Government of Assam in his inauguration speech said that Assam is a conducive state for startups and MSMEs, where the domestic manufacturers of defence equipment should establish their manufacturing bases.
Military hardware displayed in East Tech 2023: source Author
East Tech 2023 was a very well organised exhibition which saw large numbers of public witnessing the grand event which showcased the success of the Indian military industrial complex. On display were many latest weapon systems, some of which have yet to be inducted in the Indian Armed Forces.
Later in the day, a media interaction was held in which Lieutenant General RP Kalita, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Eastern Command answered various questions posed by the press. On a question by the author of this article, on whether the Indian Armed Forces are planning to open up the manufacturing of ammunition to the private sector as the manufacturing of hardware by the private sector has proved to be a success, the Army Commander said that the process is already on and certain trials are going on in the field formations.
East Tech 2023 was a great platform for the Army and the Industry to interact which will go a long way to enhance the combat potential of the Indian Army, which is rated as one of the finest armies of the world. The event conducted from October 10-11, 2023 was a resounding success and should pave the way for more collaborations. The Red Horns Division under the Eastern Command, which was the organising formation of East Tech 2023 did a fabulous and fantastic job in organising the exhibition and every minute detail was very well looked into, thereby showing the might of the Indian Army in every field that they partake a task in.
Artificial Intelligence War between USA and China: source Internet
“Philosophically, intellectually, in every way, human society is unprepared for the rise of artificial intelligence” famously remarked Henry Kissinger.
In November 2022, the world was suddenly taken over by the launch of Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer or famously known as ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM)-based chatbot developed by American Artificial Intelligence Company, OpenAI. The chatbot enables users to generate and steer a conversation based on given responses.
Since then, the technology has grown exponentially, with major tech companies around the world jumping in with various artificial intelligence technologies. With the rise of multimodal AI, which combines multiple audio, visual, and textual data sources from different modalities, the technology has huge potential in areas ranging from medicine to media and from the financial sector to defence.
With the technological advancements in the digital sector concerning artificial intelligence, it has also created an opportunity for countries around the world to potentially cooperate and compete in this sector.
Along with market competition, what we are noticing is nothing more than a great power tech game in which the established superpower, America, and the rising superpower, China, are competing with each other to secure their interests.
Great Power Tech Game
American political scientist and writer Ian Bremmer, highlighting that we will never see a cold war like the bipolar or unipolar system alone, states that today the world is branched into three types of distinctive orders. Those three are global security order, global economic order and the global digital order. The third one, he says, will have immense importance. While the first two orders are controlled and dominated by government agencies, the third one is also controlled by technology companies.
The time will come when the private sector in countries will align themselves with the goals of their governments, and then we could notice that the amalgamation of public and private objectives will inevitably make any country superior in this great power tech game.
Artificial intelligence, among other critical and emerging technologies, will be at the heart of such a technology competition or tech war. China has already started galvanising its digital tech infrastructure across the world through initiatives like the Digital Silk Road (DSR). Launched in 2015 as a component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Digital Silk Road is an attempt by China to catalyse global digitalization progress and digital governance.
Beyond standard infrastructure elements, DSR aims to put forward a China-centric digital order against a US-led western digital order. Artificial intelligence will be a key component in proposed projects under DSR, which will help China solidify its interests.
Russia-Ukraine War and Implications
Both America and China have been closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine. The war in eastern Europe has given opportunities to both great powers to amplify their resources and adapt themselves to the conflict of a modern, tech-driven world.
The Ukraine war is perhaps the first of its kind, a highly tech-driven war in which all kinds of advanced devices have been used. Ukraine’s data and operational analysis were supplemented by the use of AI systems. Further, Russia is believed to be using AI-powered unmanned and uncrewed systems in various operations. China, just like the USA, must have learned the importance of technology in maintaining asymmetric advantage.
It is no secret that the Chinese PLA aims to become a world-class military by the mid-21st century. In the last few years, the PLA and Chinese defence industries have significantly invested in robotics, swarming, and other applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technology.
As of now, the problem for China is its dependence on the US and West for primary research and innovations. Whether military or civilian, the research and development that has happened in the US and other western democracies is far beyond what China has the capacity to invest. That is why perhaps Beijing aims to become the world leader in AI by 2030, aiming to surpass its rivals, i.e., the US and the West, technologically and operationally.
From autonomous unmanned vehicles to AI killer robots, the use of AI will fundamentally change the nature of battles as we know it. The Pentagon and PLA both in their own capacity are working towards integrating such systems into their doctrine and fighting tactics.
On its part, America is working on autonomous weapons operated by artificial intelligence. Recently, Gen. Mark Milley, former United States Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview rightfully stated how advanced technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence will rapidly change the character of war.
In warfare, artificial intelligence will allow any country to make faster decisions, analyse compiled data, and perform various military operations. As Gen. Milley points out, “Artificial intelligence has a huge amount of legal, moral, and ethical implications. It’s extremely powerful and could be optimised for command and control of military operations.”
Pentagon’s ‘Replicator’ Drone Program
Realising that China is working steadfastly towards achieving a level of supremacy in the sector of AI and autonomous weapons vis-à-vis the USA, the Pentagon conceptualised plausible threats generating out of such asymmetry. Recognition of such intricacies led to the establishment of an ambitious program called Replicator.
The program, within the next two years, intends to galvanise the fielding of thousands of autonomous systems, driven by artificial intelligence; across multiple domains to better compete with China.
The programme aims to promote innovation to counter China’s core advantage, i.e., mass which is “more ships, more missiles, more people.” It further aims to invest more in autonomous systems. For fiscal year 2024 itself, the Department of Defense requested US$ 1.8 billion for artificial intelligence. Replicator is intended to pull together all the investments in the AI sector and further scale production.
Democratic AI vs Communist AI
One of the stark differences between America using AI and China using AI can be seen in its usage, especially in the civilian domain. While government surveillance is part of the statecraft and is being used by countries across the world, what separates China is its highly closed society and state apparatus.
Experts are worried about the potential use of AI technology such as facial recognition and system data analysis by the Chinese government to further tighten its grip on power and suppress citizens’ freedom of expression.
This emerging AI War is in fact a war to protect democratic ideals and rule of law on the one hand against totalitarian regimes and suppression of freedom on the other. The inherent checks and balances of democratic governance will prevent any misuse of such AI technologies by those governments.
Present Scenario
As of now, the US is mostly leading the efforts of innovation in developing different generative AI systems, in addition to developing clandestine AI to help military forces. China, though it started late, is slowly catching up with its own research and development of AI technologies.
While Google, Microsoft and other companies in the Silicon Valley have done tremendous work in the AI sector, Chinese companies such as Baidu Inc. and Alibaba are also following the course.
As of now China possesses approximately 130 large language models (LLMs), making up 40% of the global total against the United States holding a 50% share. Despite such growth, many of the AI models have yet to establish viable business models. Lack of cooperation amid the ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington further complicates the situation.
The Chinese private sector has intensified their resources to bridge the gap they have in the AI sector, with the aim of outdoing China’s geopolitical rival in a technology that may determine global power stakes. Tencent, Alibaba Group and ByteDance, among other local Chinese tech giants, are the frontrunners in developing these competing technologies.
Although the US has maintained that edge in civilian AI technology, in the military realm, some experts are of the opinion that the US might be falling behind in AI military technology. Reportedly, China is spending three times more than the U.S. on developing AI tools.
Recently, the CEO of Scale AI testified before a House Armed Services Subcommittee, where he highlighted how the Chinese Communist Party deeply understands the potential for AI to disrupt warfare. Drawing a corollary with the US’s space journey, he said, “AI is China’s Apollo project.”
Conclusion
Once in every generation, there will come some kind of general-purpose technology that will revolutionise the way humans live. Artificial intelligence is one such technology. With its technological advancement, it has the great potential to be used for the greater good of humanity; however, the plausibility of it being used in wars and warfare cannot be denied.
America and China are both working to achieve AI supremacy. With the geopolitical tensions and the great power politics of the 21st century, those who control disruptive military technology such as artificial intelligence will have the upper hand in future wars, where the role of technology will be pivotal.
Mountain ranges in Jammu & Kashmir, India: source Internet
Three major terrorist attacks in the Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu & Kashmir have shown that the new battleground for the Indian Army’s war on terror on the Jihadis operating in Jammu & Kashmir with the aid of Pakistan, has shifted from the traditional hotbeds of Baramulla and Sopore in the North of Pir Panjal range (NPPR) to the South of Pir Panjal Range (SPPR).
The three major terror attacks were the attack of April 20, 2023 in which five Indian Army soldiers of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion were killed in a vehicular ambush in Bhata Durian in Poonch. The second attack was on May 05, 2023 in which five Parachute Commandos of the elite Special Forces of the Indian Army were killed in Kesari hills of Thanamandi in Rajouri and the third one was on October 03, 2023 in which three soldiers of the Indian Army were injured in a counter insurgency operation in the dense Kalakote forests in Rajouri.
Clearly, the peace that the Rajouri and Poonch districts saw in the last 15 years has been shattered and the Indian Army finds itself in thicker counter insurgency with its troops combating the terrorists in the entire Jammu & Kashmir apart from its deployment against Pakistan on the Line of Control (LOC) and against China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Indian union territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
The reasons for the shifting landscape of terrorism from NPPR to SPPR can be enumerated as follows-
Geographical Factors – The Rajouri and Poonch regions, situated along the LOC offer a strategic advantage for terrorist activities due to their proximity to the LOC with Pakistan. The rugged terrain and dense forests provide cover and facilitation for infiltrations and terrorist operations.
Security Measures in Kashmir Valley – The enhanced security apparatus and successful counter-terrorism operations in the Kashmir Valley have forced the terrorist networks to seek alternative bases of operation. The Rajouri and Poonch regions present a comparatively softer target, making them attractive for terrorist outfits.
Closing of Passes – All the traditional routes of crossing over to the Kashmir valley from the SPPR are snow covered during the months of December to March. It is a major obstacle in the path of the terrorists to the Kashmir Valley located in NPPR. With the shift in dynamics of SPPR and change in tactics of the terrorists, it is highly likely that the terrorists choose not to cross over to the Kashmir Valley and carry out strikes in the SPPR.
Upcoming General Elections of 2024 – Terrorists often use violence, intimidation and threats to deter candidates, voters, and election officials from participating in the electoral process. This can include targeted attacks on political rallies, party offices and individuals associated with the electoral process. As and when the elections will happen there will be attempts made by the terrorists to further disrupt the peace in the region, which will include increase in terrorist activities.
Changed tactics of terrorists – The traditional form of terrorism is no more in vogue. Changed dynamics has resulted in a changed terrorist who is suave, technically oriented and merges with the crowd and remains unidentifiable by looks and conduct.
Interference with Civilian Life – Terrorism seeks to disrupt the daily lives of civilians and create an atmosphere of fear. Shifting the focus to regions like Rajouri and Poonch allows terrorists to achieve this objective while avoiding heavily guarded areas.
Implications of terrorists shifting base to SPPR
Increased Threat to Civilian Population – The shift places a higher risk on civilian populations in the Rajouri and Poonch regions. These areas are less accustomed to the regular presence of terrorism, potentially making them more vulnerable to attacks.
Challenges for Security Forces – The changing dynamics pose new challenges for security forces. They have to adapt their strategies and operations to effectively counter the rising threat in these areas while maintaining stability in the Kashmir Valley.
Economic Impact – Terrorism negatively impacts local economies by deterring investment and disrupting trade. The shift of terrorism to new regions may hamper economic development in Rajouri and Poonch, hindering progress and prosperity.
The shift of terrorism from the Kashmir Valley to the Rajouri and Poonch regions reflects the adaptability and resilience of terrorist networks. Addressing this shift requires a multi-faceted approach involving not only security measures but also community engagement, intelligence enhancement, and socio-economic development. Every year 50,000-60,000 Indian Army personnel retire. They should be given land at extremely cheap rates so that majority of them settle down in Jammu & Kashmir. This will bring down terrorism significantly as Veterans will aid in a more conducive demography for peace and prosperity. This method has been successfully tried by China and Israel. By understanding the changing dynamics and taking proactive measures, a more secure and prosperous Jammu and Kashmir region can be worked towards to.
The Northern Command and the White Knight Corps of the Indian Army are doing a phenomenal task in curbing and controlling terrorism in the SPPR. Though faced with immense challenges and complexities, the Northern Command and the White Knight Corps are working day and night to ensure that peace and prosperity reigns supreme once again in SPPR.
As shutdown is bad news for a nation which happens in the case and sometime argues its being done willingly which raised an issue why such shutdown happens in the US not elsewhere? It happens due to a compromise agreed upon by nation’s founder with different branches of the government controlled by different parties. Today, such an act has an opposite effect, as the current US shutdown was a result of a small group of policymakers, hardline conservative Republican members who demanded deep spending cuts, a move which members of Republican and Democrats didn’t support.
What is US Shutdown
In the United States, shutdown occurs when funding legislation requires to finance the federal government is not enacted prior to October 1st to the beginning of the next fiscal year. Under the Anti-Deficiency Act which was passed in 1884, the federal agencies should spend and enact all 12 annual appropriation bills to run the government activities and bureaucracy. However, later in two centuries later in 1980, Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti’s issuing a legal opinion making it a compulsion to have such a clearance began the first shutdown. As such a clearance to fund all government annual programs and activities is required before October 1st and policy makers inability to have a deal on it before the said date has resulted in 14 US shutdowns.
The 2018-19 shutdown lasted 34 days. Such a situation disrupts the government services and programs, reduces revenue, results in loss to the economy and impacts economic growth as the fourth quarter of 2013 GDP was reduced by 0.6%. The growing number of such shutdowns has cost the US economy billions of dollars and in the last decade more than 50 days of US shutdown has lost 56,000 years of work productivity. As shutdowns continues to happen, it has become a costly affair for the government, apart from being a political issue, has started impacting the axpayer and American money.
Why it’s a financial mess
As US shutdown affects every corner of the US federal government forcing around 800,000 workers to work without paycheque, furloughed, causing ripple effect which over the years have increased causing economic and financial mess in the US. Although, such a development impacts US credit rating, on the other hand, it highlights growing political polarisation which has weakened fiscal policymaking, putting pressure on US government debt which has increased to US$ 32.91 trillion in 2023. With shutdown becoming a regular phenomenon, how it will impact the US economy and financial situation is measured by its longevity and will it put the US into an economic recession or not is being discussed. As a shutdown impacts the US financial stability and US President re-election, it could also impact the US President Biden re-election in 2024.
Is another long US Shutdown in the making
While the US economic growth continues to be strong in 2023, the strongest amongst the G7 members, USA witnessing low unemployment rates and robust labour market has so far fully recovered from the GDP loss it suffered in 2021 due to the pandemic. In such a situation, the longevity of US shutdown is being watched carefully as a window of opportunity of signing the deal has gone to ensure the government funds run smoothly. Thus, it’s a delicate situation for the US economy and economic growth with global oil per barrel price inching closer to US$ 100. It could inflate ongoing inflation issue in the US moving the economy closer to the rumoured like recession.
However, such a situation is still far from becoming an economic threat in the US, it all depends upon longevity of the shutdown which has started to create a political chaos. Goldman Sachs argues such shutdown will reduce GDP by 0.2% every week, and considering ongoing development in the US like Federal Reserve going for a long fight against inflation, government is moving closer towards a messy US shutdown. With inflation weary American coupled with a long government shut down, oil prices going up and low business and consumer confidence could cause a major damage to the US economy. With ongoing United Auto Workers strike, oil prices, higher long term rates and the Biden’s student loan plan, debt stand at US$ 1.77 trillion, combinedly will amplify the impact of such shutdown.
The 2018-19 shutdown was the longest in the US history which erased US$ 11 billion of which US$ 8 billion was recovered and remaining US$ 3 billion was permanently drained as stated by the Congressional Budget Office. Considering such an impact of shutdown and about 900 programs being funded through the annual appropriation bill in the US, such a shutdown will not impact mandatory programs intent for Medicare, Social Security and Children’s Health Insurance Program. Every year, before a shutdown happens, a temporary continuing resolution comes into action to ensure all programs and government activities run smoothly before a deal among policy makers are achieved. With such safety net in place the elongation of the 2023-24 shutdown will increase economic and financial hardship in the US.
Conclusion
As the US shutdown keeps US critical infrastructure vulnerable, its prolongation will disrupt food aid, air travel and various government-run programs and activities which will contribute to a systemic stress to the US financial markets. Combined with other problems the US economy is currently facing, it will cause a significant impact on the US economy. However, the US Congress has managed to have a deal to avoid shutdown for the next 45 days and policy makers will go back to the bargaining table again once relief period is over. Learning from the past shutdowns despite recovery was made the loss (economic and human) incur will only pile up to become another major issue in the next US shutdown, a vicious cycle which has to end.
In a move that could further spell the death-knell of democracy in Pakistan, a Serving General Officer of the Pakistan Army has been appointed as the chairman of the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) on October 02, 2023.
NADRA plays a pivotal role in the Pakistan administrative framework. It is solely responsible for maintaining the nation’s database including the citizens biometric and demographic information. The appointment of the NADRA chairman is a significant decision as it directly impacts the integrity and effectiveness of the organisation. In the recent years the appointment process of the NADRA chairman in Pakistan has garnered much media attention raising questions about the transparency, accountability and qualifications of the selected candidate.
Since quite some time now the appointment of the NADRA chairman has been besieged with immense controversies. These controversies revolve around three main critical issues. Firstly, that the process of selecting the NADRA chairman lacks total transparency and is susceptible to the political influence. Some of the earlier NAFRA chairmen have been made more on personal connections rather than on merit. Secondly, to be effective as the NADRA chairman, he should have requisite qualifications and experience as NADRA is a very complex organisation which is responsible for safeguarding sensitive citizen data. Thirdly, lot of political interference in NADRA’s affairs have been seen in the past. When the head of NADRA is perceived as being politically aligned, it can undermine the organization’s impartiality and raise doubts about the integrity of its functioning.
The previous chairman of Nadra was Tariq Malik who was appointed in June 2021 for a second term. Prior to this appointment he was serving at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Malik also had immense experience as he was among the 10 core members of the World Bank’s Technical Experts Group (TEG) which supported client countries with ID planning and implementation.
Since the appointment of Tariq Malik as chairman of NADRA in June 2021 was for a second time, he had been facing immense pressure from the Interior Minister of Pakistan to resign after reports emerged that some officials of NADRA had been involved in leaking the personal data of the previous Army chief General Qamar Bajwa.
Lieutenant General Munir Afsar who is serving three-star General Officer in the Pakistan Army was promoted to the rank of Lieutenant General in October 2022. It is for the first time in Pakistan’s history that a serving General Officer has been appointed the chairman of NADRA. The appointment of a serving General Officer as the NADRA chairman is yet another step in choking the democracy of Pakistan which for quite some time has come under the scanner of the international agencies.
Pakistan which for quite some time now has been seen internal disturbances leading to the arrest of the former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is yet to see stability return. The dates for elections to Pakistani National Assembly have not yet been announced.
The Pakistan Army wields immense control over the Government of Pakistan and the bureaucrats. And now with its full control through a serving General Officer in NADRA, the entire data of the Pakistani citizens is now in the hands of the Pakistan Army. How this data of the Pakistani citizens is used/misused will be known in the times ahead but one thing is for sure that the democracy in Pakistan is further being choked by the powerful Pakistan Army which calls the shots in Pakistan.
Russian tank camouflaged in the 1943 Battle of Kursk: source Internet
“All warfare is based on deception.” ~ Sun Tzu
Wars and conflicts are intertwined with the growth of human civilization. From the Peloponnesian wars of ancient Greece to the War on Terror in modern times, wars have been part of human societies for centuries. The famous historical dictum “Only the dead have seen the end of war,” which is widely attributed to the ancient Greek philosopher Plato, elucidates the innate struggle for human existence that manifests in the form of wars and conflict.
While everyone will agree with the enduring nature of the war, not everyone may agree on how wars could be fought. For some, means are as important as ends in the battle, while for others, their ends justify their means. Throughout history, in every major battle, “deception” has been used as a tool to achieve victory; however, different military generals have different conceptions of using it. The aim of this piece is to dig deep into the historical underpinnings of the role of “deception” in warfare while simultaneously highlighting its relevance in modern warfare.
Ancient China and Deception
The ancient Chinese military general Sun Tzu is widely respected in strategic circles for his realist foresight and understanding of the nature of warfare. In his sentimental work “The Art of War,” he notes different ways by which a conqueror can defeat the enemy.
“In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory,” he writes. Here, indirect methods may include an act of deceit or deception. The teachings of Sun Tzu are mostly end-oriented, which means that to him, the outcome of the battle was more important than the methods used to achieve such an outcome. Winning the war without fighting is one of the prime pillars of Sun Tzu’s military doctrine, and one should not shy away from employing all the possible means to achieve favourable outcomes.
Further, during the period of the Warring States (475 BC–221 BC), tactics and tools such as feigned retreats, spreading misinformation, sudden ambushes and propaganda, in addition to strategic deception, were widely used by emperors at that time.
Thucydides and Peloponnesian War
Thucydides, an ancient Athenian historian and military general, pens down in “The History of the Peloponnesian War” a series of battles and events in which various deceptive measures have been used to gain victory in the battles.
While Thucydides does not explicitly write about deception, his writings suggest that he viewed deception as a common and expected aspect of human behaviour, especially when it comes to warfare and politics. As a political realist, he highlights how states and leaders, driven by their own interests and survival instincts, would employ deception for the betterment of the results.
Fought between 431 BC and 405 BC, the Peloponnesian War was one of the foremost wars of human history. A series of battles, conflicts, and treaties formed the war, the end of which led to the eventual downfall of both Sparta and Athens in the subsequent years.
Throughout the war, Thucydides described instances where states made false promises and used deceptive diplomatic tactics to manipulate their adversaries. Athenian leaders, for example, would offer peace and talk about further negotiations while secretly preparing their armies for military action.
He also adds how states use propaganda and manipulation to influence public opinion in their favour, which can be helpful in maintaining high morale during the conflict.
Arthashastra of Kautilya
The ancient Indian political thinker and strategist Kautilya, in his magnum opus, the Arthashastra, provided tools by which the king could maintain his power. Kautilya, yet again another realist, believed in the paramountcy of the state. The existence of the state presupposes everything in the Kautilyan governance matrix.
Divided into 15 books and a total of 150 chapters, it contains 180 topics and around 380 verses that deal with various issues of statecraft, from economics to governance and from the security of the state to foreign policy.
He advised using the tactics of sama, dana, bheda, and danda (i.e., adopting a conciliatory attitude, placating with rewards and gifts, sowing dissension among enemies, and using force, respectively). Based on the strength of the enemy, the king should employ any of the four or a combination of them to achieve the desired victory.
Here too, deception was one of the key pillars of Kautilyan statecraft. “Miraculous results can be achieved by practising the methods of subversion,” he writes, highlighting the importance of covert operations in warfare. The Arthashastra further notes down a range of clandestine deceptive operations. It suggests using deception to test the integrity of ministers and military commanders.
During peacetime, Kautilya suggests, the king should make sure to indoctrinate the enemy’s population and ministers through subversion, paving the way for moral chaos when the war happens. Again, here too, spreading misinformation and propaganda is considered necessary in order to negate the psychological reasoning of the enemy.
Carl von Clausewitz and “On War”
The Prussian military general Carl von Clausewitz is perhaps one of the most widely studied military theorists and generals of all time. Even today his tactics and theories are being studied by military academies across the world.
In his seminal book, On War, Clausewitz considered war to have a moral force, thus denigrating the role of deception, considering it to be “cunning.” He writes in this context, “To prepare a sham action with sufficient thoroughness to impress an enemy requires a considerable expenditure of time and effort, and the costs increase with the scale of the deception… And consequently, so-called strategic feints rarely have the desired effect.”
Clausewitz did not explicitly endorse or condemn deception in warfare; he recognised its presence and discussed its role within the larger framework of politico-military strategy.
The inherent uncertainties of any war were analysed by Clausewitz, and thus, according to him, deception can be useful in taking advantage of such uncertainties. Unlike Sun Tzu and Kautilya, Clausewitz talked about the limitations of using deceptive measures in warfare, citing operational and moral reasons.
Machiavelli and the Art of War
Any work on deception, be it military or statecraft, will be incomplete without mentioning Italian political thinker and diplomat Niccolò Machiavelli. Famous for his work, The Prince, Machiavelli is considered to have reached an epitome of realism through his writing. In his work “The Art of War”, which focuses on significant aspects of warfare and strategy, Machiavelli highlights the role of deception.
Machiavelli argued that deception was a crucial element of warfare and that a successful leader should be skilled in the art of deception to outmanoeuvre the enemy. He explained how surprise attacks and ambushes could lead to a decisive victory. Just like Kautilya, Machiavelli too believed in employing deception in diplomacy and negotiations. Skilful diplomacy can sow discord among enemies, which can be utilised to gain a victory.
Psychological warfare was another aspect of deception that Machiavelli suggested using. He explains through various case studies how creating fear and confusion in the enemy’s ranks could undermine their morale and decision-making, ultimately weakening their whole defence.
The World Wars
The twentieth century was devastated by two disastrous world wars, followed by the clandestine Cold War. It was during World War I and thereafter that we saw the doctrinal approach of using deception by means of propaganda and psychological warfare among other things.
For instance, during World War 1, both central and allied forces performed “false-flag operations,” in which the soldiers of the army disguised as enemy soldiers would cross the enemy lines and create disruption. Another such example is creating falsified trenches and giving misrepresented communications to the enemy.
Likewise, during World War II, we not only observed the use of deception for military purposes but also for political and ideological purposes. Hitler’s Third Reich and Stalin’s Soviet Union excessively exploited deception and propaganda for ideological and political outcomes.
In the initial phase of World War II, during the German invasion of France, the Wehrmacht, through Operation Fall Gelb (also known as Case Yellow), misled, through various deception techniques, about its intentions, which drew the attention of British forces away from the invasion that eventually resulted in the rapid fall of France.
Another of such famous examples is Operation Fortitude in 1944, the goal of which was to make German military leadership believe that the main Allied invasion of Europe will occur towards Norway and not at Normandy, paving the way for the D-Day.
Deception and Modern Warfare
With the advent of information and the digital age, the battlefield has transcended beyond conventional realms. Every person using a smartphone and the internet is a potential target of misinformation and deceptive actions by the adversary.
The widespread use of social media further augmented the possibility of waging psychological and cognitive warfare. Countries around the world are exploring ways to operationalize deceptive measures through a doctrinal approach. China’s “Unrestricted Warfare” and three warfares strategy, Russia’s “New Generational Warfare”, along with its famous Gerasimov Doctrine, propounded by General Valery Gerasimov, that talks about combining military, information, economic, technological, diplomatic, cultural and other tactics for the purpose of achieving strategic and kinetic goals, are a few such examples.
As we have seen throughout this piece, deception is an inalienable part of the spectrum of warfare, and it will be for the foreseeable future. With the rise of disruptive military technologies, the use of such measures will further see advancements in the non-kinetic measures of warfare that can be leveraged by developing offensive and defensive capabilities against such threats.
Devarnav Dev Sharma and Sofia Salas Monge: source Author
Mr Devarnav Dev Sharma conducted an interview with Interview of Sofia Salas Monge, Minister Counsellor and Consul General, Embassy of Costa Rica, New Delhi, India on June 16, 2023. The transcript of the interview is given below.
DDS- How do you see the relationship between India and Costa Rica in the broader international context of the present times?
SSM- Both our countries share a harmonious and cordial relationship with each other. Costa Rican Embassy was set up in 2010 with a senior official as Charge d’ Affairs. The first Ambassador of Costa Rica assumed office in 2011 and the present Ambassador is holding office from 2019. It is relatively a small embassy (two diplomats at present: the Ambassador and myself). Our diplomatic work is focused on three main areas: foreign policy, economic diplomacy and International Cooperation. I currently serve as the Minister Counsellor and Consul General. I have witnessed an increasing understanding of Latin America in India in recent years. Despite the fact that Latin America and India are geographically far from each other and there are certain cultural distinctions there is now a greater presence of Indians in Costa Rica people-to-people interaction between our countries. It is now not rare to see sarees and kurtas in Costa Rica, which was not the case over a decade ago. We also have an active Indian Association (Costa Rica India Association–CRIA) whose founders were CEOs or high-level employees of IT and/or engineering companies. Currently, India does not have an Embassy in Costa Rica, the Indian Embassy in Panama is concurrent to Costa Rica. We hope that in the near future we have an Indian Embassy in San Jose too. The cultural relationship between both the countries is stronger and we see festivals like Holi and Diwali being celebrated. There have been recent diplomatic visits from India like Minister Jaishankar’s visit to Panama during which the 4th India SICA Ministerial meeting on April 25, 2023 took place. Costa Rica and India also held the third round of India-Costa Rica Political Consultations Meeting on September 17, 2021. We perceive and welcome the fact that India is focusing more on the countries of Latin America. We see increasing importance of cooperation in the IT sector and automobiles. Some MOUs have also been signed but they are till now mostly dormant. We are geographically a small country so we need to be very strategic and key areas need to be focused on. Our ambassador is an economist and his key area is trade. He participates in various events related to trade and investment to promote Costa Rica; some of these events are organized by different chambers in India.
DDS- Do you think India’s growing proximity with the United States of America has had any impact in India’s relationship with Latin America in general and Costa Rica in particular?
SSM- The countries of Latin America are also building closer ties with the USA. The Alliance for Development in Democracy by Costa Rica, Panama and Dominican Republic (founding members) and now including Ecuador since July 2022, aims to strengthen trade and investments from United States, Europe and Asia. Jaishankar’s visit to Mexico to celebrate 200 years of their independence in September 2021 marks India’s messaging that Latin America is important. So yes, it could be that India’s shift in orientation to grow closer to USA may be impacting its Latin American orientation as well. Moreover, many Indian IT professionals and companies establish themselves in Costa Rica to serve their US clients. Costa Rica thus can be seen as a gateway to best cater the USA market for Indians as well.
DDS- Do you think there are any bottlenecks in the visa approval process especially with reference to work visas for spouses of Indian IT and other professionals working in Costa Rica?
SSM- This concern has been raised but it is not India specific. For visa-related purposes, Costa Rica divides countries in groups. India is in the third group which requires consular visa. As far as the dependent population or the spouses are concerned, approval process is rather simple. The backlog of applications combined with the processing time in India to obtain certain requisites demanded by Costa Rican regulations, such as the Police clearance certificate, which needs to be duly apostilled and translated into Spanish, may represent some delay in the process of certain applicants. Police clearance certificates take a while to be processed in India and we need to be absolutely sure about the authenticity of the documents. The police clearance certificate is not a specific requirement for India.
Costa Rica: source Internet
DDS- Can you give us a brief account of the areas of cooperation between India and Costa Rica?
SSM- Trade is an area with potential. India and Costa Rica trade in teak and pharmaceutical devices. Costa Rica also produces great quality coffee. I recently visited the North Eastern states of India and saw great potential for collaboration in agro industries and sustainable crops. The region is also focussing on eco-tourism similar to Costa Rica and both regions can collaborate on that by exchanging technical cooperation and best practices. Transitioning to green and clean public transportation is a challenge in Costa Rica. The previous administration was working on a project to put into action an intercity electric train that advanced to the final stages but was not implemented. With the change of administration, the priority of green transportation continues, but the specific project of the former administration will not be pursued. India can help with its technical know-how in this field. On other topics, Costa Rica can benefit greatly from India’s expertise in “buffalo husbandry” which can become an income source for people in Costa Rica. On other fronts too there has been gradual changes. Student exchanges have increased and now students are coming not just for Yoga but for studying other disciplines as well. A student from Costa Rica recently joined O.P. Jindal Global University to study International Relations. Some students are getting scholarships too but it is a gradual change nonetheless. We have also seen Costa Rica becoming a destination for medical education especially after the Ukraine crisis. Investment incentives are also increasing for Indian companies to invest in Costa Rica. Indian students are also enrolling themselves at the University for Peace for PG programs. In fact, Mihir Kanade, an Indian scholar is heading the International Law Department at the University. He is an author and a professor of International Law, Human Rights and Development at the University. We are also hoping that Costa Rica becomes a favourite tourist destination for Indians. It takes a day to reach Costa Rica from India. Recently, some South Indian movie actors have visited Costa Rica which we hope is something that will contribute to further promote Costa Rica as a tourist destination. Costa Rica is also known for alternative therapies and India could benefit from it. It has also seen the rise of the presence of digital nomads.
DDS- India currently has a young population and could be a potential beneficiary of demographic dividend but it requires great investment in education and skill building. How do you think India can gain such insights from countries like Costa Rica?
SSM- Every country has challenges and India being a huge country definitely has its own set of challenges. Costa Rica has always provided free education but now we feel the need for high quality education. We observed that during the pandemic, difference in digital accessibility was widespread especially between urban and rural areas and public and private institutions. So, both the countries need to work on that. As far as India is concerned, political willingness, both at the central and state level, is very important to ensure that appropriate infrastructure, resources and skilled teachers are available at all levels. We need to train teachers and make teaching a well-paying job. Schools also have to be accessible and to have an adequate curriculum; learning starts at a very young age. Imparting useful skills is very important for building successful careers. HCL for instance now has a “tech education” wing to respond to the recruitment and skilling needs of companies. Thus yes, investment in teaching and infrastructure is paramount.
DDS- Would you like to give general comments for the readers of this interview before we conclude?
SSM- Sure, as diplomats we are the representatives of our countries and public servants. It is a responsibility to carry your country’s name. Costa Rica is a beautiful peace-loving country. We demilitarised in 1948 itself at the end of a civil war. Our constitution does not have provision for a permanent military. We follow the rule of law and solve our issues through international courts such as the International Court of Justice. We firmly believe that it is a much better investment to dedicate resources into health and education rather than for maintaining armies. A Japanese philanthropist that once visited the UPEACE in Costa Rica said the following phrase which fills us with great pride: “blessed is the Costa Rican Mother who knows at the time of birth that her son will never be a soldier”.
DDS- Thank you so much for your valuable insights and time!
SSM- You are welcome!
About the Author
Devarnav Dev Sharma is a recent Postgraduate in Politics with specialisation in International Studies from School of International Studies (SIS), JNU. He has been a MAPS Young Professional Fellow, a participant of the prestigious Asian Undergraduate Summit as part of the University Scholars Program and is currently training school students in developing critical thinking and debating skills in various formats. He tweets at @devarnav_dev.
President Joe Biden famously said, “The United States has no closer friend, partner, or ally than Canada. Over the past 150 years, our two countries have built one of the closest and most extensive relationships.”
The importance of Canada to the US is manifold; they share not only the same values like democracy, justice, freedom, similar lifestyles, history, and aspirations but also are linked by geography and security, and the two countries stand as a modern example of interdependence and cooperation.
The US and Canada are far more integrated than most people think. Two nations occupying the bulk of North America and share the world’s longest undefended border, each reliant on the other for trade, continental security, and prosperity. In other words, both share a longstanding commitment to cooperation in the Western Hemisphere in support of democracy, the rule of law, human rights, economic growth and opportunity, free trade, humanitarian assistance, and sustainable development. They also work closely in counternarcotics, conflict resolution, defense cooperation, and institutional reform.
In still other ways, the Americans consider the Canadians closer to them than any other people in the world. Both Americans and Canadians are very much similar in character. The Anglo-Canadians speak the same language. Canadian English is American English. The people of Canada are descended from much the same stock—half from the British Isles and half from continental Europe. Canadians and Americans have matured together in the same environment. On either side along the boundary, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the pattern of daily life is much the same.
Strategically, the size of Canada and a stable and friendly neighbour rather than a hostile power is an asset to the US. This Canadian Shield is situated to the north above the Great Lake; it is the world’s largest area of Precambrian rock, much of which forms a barrier to human settlement.
Economically, the countries are one another’s most prominent investors, customers, and suppliers. Canada, as their largest trading partner, nearly $2.6 billion in goods and services crosses their shared border every day – an almost 20 percent increase in 2022 over the previous year.
Canada has also moved up to be the leading foreign provider of critical petroleum products to the US; it ships roughly 2.5 million barrels a day (out of the total consumed of 19.4 million barrels daily) and is an essential source of electrical power, uranium, metals, minerals, natural gas, and automobiles. In return, Canadians buy more U.S. products than does the entire EU.
Many assume that China or Japan is the leading trading partner of the US. According to reports, the US exports almost three times more to Canada than Japan and 12 times more to Canada than China.
U.S. corporations own roughly 12 percent of Canada’s corporate assets, nearly half of its oil industry, and most of its manufacturing. Canadian corporations are the third most prominent investors in the United States, and Canadian foreign direct investment levels are also third in the U.S. At the same time, the U.S. is the largest investor in Canada, according to 2022 data.
The policy opinion politiques states that Trade, direct investment, and tourism linkages between the US and Canada roughly account for over 3 million US jobs.
According to data, with a population of 38 million, Canadians spend more than 60 percent of their disposable income on U.S. consumer goods. In 2020, Canada ranked as the top export market for 32 of 50 states thanks to numerous commonalities, like geographic proximity, cultural affinity, brand recognition, and ease of doing business.
Their partnership is also sustained by string trade frameworks that lower entry barriers. The Agreement between the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA) supports excellent regulatory practices and North American competitiveness. The Roadmap for a Renewed US-Canada Partnership, released in February 2021, establishes a framework for enhanced cooperation between the two countries in critical sectors, including economic growth, pandemic recovery, combating climate change, and tackling global concerns.
Canada is also important to the US for security and defense partnership,just as the United States is to Canada. For the United States, Canada is an indispensable ally in the defence of North America. Since President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Mackenzie King signed the Ogdensburg Agreement in 1940, recognizing the indivisible nature of continental security and pledged mutual assistance in the event of war, Canada-US defense cooperation has endured more than five decades of changing challenges.
The strength of this mutual commitment is illustrated by the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), the centerpiece of the US-Canada military relationship. US and Canadian forces jointly conduct aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning to defend North America.
This relationship is also significant as both countries work together in several key security partnerships, including the Five Eyes (an alliance of intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and NATO. Canada’s intelligence capabilities are crucial to the United States regarding the former’s ability to contribute to common alliances and partnerships because violent extremists based in Canada can threaten the United States.
This north-south migrationhas been constant throughout history. Millions of Americans have Canadian roots, including well-known figures like Ellen DeGeneres, Alec Baldwin, Vince Vaughn, Madonna, Angelina Jolie, Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, Jack Kerouac, Walt Disney, Walter Chrysler and Thomas Edison.
The population flow has likewise shifted northward. More than one million Americans live in Canada, and their children, even if born there, are eligible for US citizenship. This intermingling of population between Canada and the United States has been much more significant and has been going on much longer than most realize. It began even before the American Revolution. As a result of this ebb and flow, about 1.5 of the 11.5 million people living in Canada are of United States origin, and there are about 5 million Americans of Canadian ancestry.
Thus, people have moved freely across the Canadian-American border from generation to generation, from the Atlantic to the Pacific. There has been nothing like it anywhere else, and it has produced an international intimacy.
Tackling the climate crisis is a crucial issue for the United States. And it sees Canada as a reliable partner – their largest energy trading partner- as both are committed to taking decisive action. The US is committed to growing the clean energy economy by lifting legislation like the US Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the clean energy transition and make North America a clean energy powerhouse. They have signed agreements like the US–Canada Air Quality Agreement (AQA) in 1991. The agreement includes commitments by both countries to address acid rain and ground-level ozone. Under the agreement, the United States and Canada also cooperate on science and research topics such as wildfires, ammonia, and methane as an ozone precursor.
Problems of the Canadian-American relationship
Though generally close, relations between the US and Canada have changed over the past three decades. The two North American countries cooperate widely in international security and political issues bilaterally and through numerous international organizations. Canada’s defense and foreign policies are usually in harmony with the United States. Areas of contention are relatively few but sometimes sharp, as in policy toward Iraq.
Canadians are far more concerned by what they perceive to be American paranoia. Clearly, Canadians cannot afford to ignore the American state of mind. The Canadian economy, which is tightly linked to the US economy, is influenced by decisions made in Washington, and many Canadians are vulnerable to ideas and emotions of fear emerging from the US.
To sustain a viable relationship with the US, the Canadian government adheres to the notion that Canada should not be a source of uneasiness and concern for the American government and its people. As a result, Ottawa ensures that no anti-US organization exists within Canada. This is the price Canada pays if it wants the Americans to leave the border open for trade and refrain from interfering in Canadian domestic security problems.
In fact, it is debatable whether the damage to Canadian identity is greater than the challenge to sovereignty. To summarise, Canada, with an economy and society inextricably linked to those of the United States, cannot afford to disregard American concerns and must, with prudence and clarity, put measures in place to cope with what Washington regards as threats.
Furthermore, the political focus of the United States is moving from the Northeast to the South and Southwest. With a reduced (if not eliminated) need to depend on Canada to defend US soil from a Russian missile attack over the North Pole, Washington increasingly treats Canada as a nation just like others. It also, and more importantly, indicates that Mexico’s relevance has grown in the eyes of the United States. The signing of NAFTA has hastened this process, the inclination to focus on the South and the United States’ relationship with Mexico.
The numbers suggest a strong reason for this change in emphasis. Mexico’s rapidly growing economy is home to more than 100 million people – over three times the size of Canada’s population and Spanish is quickly becoming the unofficial second language of the United States. The statistics point to a solid basis for this shift in emphasis. The same is true for Mexico and Canada; the United States has become an overwhelmingly significant market, accounting for about 90% of its exports. Mexico’s economic revival will increase competition for companies from Canada exporting to the United States.
Manipur has been under chaos for three and a half months as a result of the continuing ethnic strife between the highly armed Meitei and Kuki-Zo groups. The state is essentially divided between the Meiteis of the Imphal Valley and the Kuki-Zo of the highlands. All politicians, the state administration, the police, and the bureaucracy are split along ethnic lines.
A 15-day halt to violence had been requested by India’s Home Minister Amit Shah in order to reach a settlement and bring about normalcy. However, intermittent violence has persisted in rural regions. For all practical purposes, the security in Manipur is being overseen by the former Indian Police Service Officer Kuldiep Singh, who has been appointed as the security adviser to the Manipur government.
The greatest police-to-population ratio is found in Manipur (1,388 to 100,000). Furthermore, 36,000 central forces have been sent to the state. In Manipur, there are 125 companies of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the Border Security Force (BSF), the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP). The Indian Army has a Mountain Division and the along with an Assam Rifles battalion which also are operating in Manipur as part of the Spear Corps of the Indian Army who is overseeing the operations from the military point of view.
The military forces have continued to provide a ray of hope for citizens living in isolated areas, in addition to being stationed near contentious borders and quelling insurgencies in the North and East. Their role in fostering national development is widely known.
Because they are apolitical, they have been a benefit to democracy rather than a danger. In Pakistan, the army chooses the caretaker government, but in Bangladesh, the army has a significant influence in deciding election results. In India, political parties would try to profit from the military forces’ triumphs in every sector, but the forces themselves stay in the background, unseen and silent, seldom speaking.
The unpredictable scenario in Manipur also favours the revival of old rebel groupings that have either signed peace treaties with the government or have just remained inactive. The Indian Army is the only thing standing between the warring groups and the state
.
The Indian Army’s reaction to Insurgency
Because of the foresight of the Central Government and the Armed Forces, the Army’s counter-insurgency deployment in the state has been in existence since 1980. The Army fought rebel organisations of the three ethnic communities – Nagas, Meiteis and Kukis, battling for independence for 30 years after 1980, finally putting Manipur under control.
Peace treaties were made in 1997 with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and in 2008 with the Kukis, with the rebels relocating into camps guarded by the Army and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs). The Meitei rebels never signed an agreement and instead went inactive. The majority of the rebel organisations’ weaponry were transported from China via Myanmar.
The Assam Rifles’ insurgency grid, which works under the Indian Army’s Spear Corps, has mostly stayed intact. This unit is also in charge of the India-Myanmar border. A Mountain Division is also permanently stationed in Manipur and Nagaland each. Except for 19 police stations situated in seven of the state’s sixteen districts, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) that was invoked in Manipur remains in effect.
Given its extensive expertise, the Indian Army had maintained a close eye on the growing situation in Manipur after the Manipur High Court’s decision on Scheduled Tribes Status for Meiteis on April 20, 2023 and its reaction to the outbreak of violence on May 3, 2023 was prompt. The Indian Army’s biggest handicap is that it is acting under the local administration in the ‘Aid to Civil Authority’ mode. This puts lots of restrictions on the planning and execution of the counter insurgency operations by the Indian Army.
Immediately after the outbreak of unrest on May 03, 2023, 130 Army and Assam Rifles Internal Security Columns (8,000-10,000 personnel) were deployed to restore the law and order. The Air Force assisted in bringing in more soldiers. Anarchy peaked between May 03-05, 2023 dropped between May 06-21, 2023and then surged again.
At the moment, the situation is unpredictable, with periodic outbreaks of violence. The Indian Army intends to conduct combing operations to recover stolen weaponry. Furthermore, the Armed Forces have secured 36,000 internally displaced individuals and cared for 21,000 people who sought refuge in Army Camps. Manipur’s two vital roads, NH-37 and NH-2, which are considered its lifelines, have remained open.
The present circumstance is one of the most difficult the Indian Army has encountered in its ‘Aid to Civil Authority’ mission. Deep schisms exist between the Meiteis and the Kukis. Unlike in communal riots, minority settlements are invaded and set on fire, notwithstanding the presence of the Army. Often the Indian Army columns going in dangerous regions are obstructed by crowds led by women, who are also accused of partisanship.
When the identities of 21 Meitei officers of the Indian Army working in the state were disclosed on social media, the Army was quick to publicly reassert its neutrality. There have been allegations of clashes between the Army and the partisan police, which the Army has denied.
Current Situation
Manipur’s current state is best defined as the proverbial calm before the storm. According to reports, the ‘Aid to Civil Authority’ approach would be reassessed as the situation evolves. Ethnic extremists have taken control of the political arena.
There would be few takers for a compromise solution that does not include a Union Territory or a territorial administrative council for Kukis and Nagas, which may be unpalatable to the Meiteis since it would spell the end of the ancient Meitei country. Nagas have always wanted Nagalim or the larger Naga nation.
Round two of ethnic conflict needs to be avoided at all costs and an acceptable compromise formula needs to be reached at the soonest possible. There are 4,000 looted weapons, the majority of which are with the Meiteis. Dormant Meitei rebel organisations with secret weapons may reappear. Kuki-Zomi militants might abandon the 2008 Suspension of Operations (SOO) agreement, leading to the stealing of the weapons from the designated armouries, and reappear as community heroes. Given the Naga-Kuki animosity and claims on each other’s land, Nagas may also violate the 1998 truce and enter the conflict.
Secessionist insurgencies in the Northeast have run their course and are unlikely to recur. However, if a full-fledged internal ethnic insurgency breaks out in Manipur, the Army’s presence would have to be doubled. A scenario like this would have a knock-on impact on Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, and Assam, pushing the Northeast back four decades. This will also have a significant impact on the Army’s capabilities on the northern front.
It would be advisable for national political parties, to reconsider their approach to the Northeast. In this location, communal and majoritarian reasoning are inapplicable. It demands secular and constitutional government that protects ethnic and tribal interests. Currently, the scenario seems to be frighteningly identical to that of the 1960s and 1970s. The sole redeeming grace is the lack of clamour for separation.
Conclusion
The Indian Army has always strived towards country building and national harmony. It has endeavored to offer assistance in the most difficult situations while neglecting its own losses and misery. Respect for it has grown as a result of its impartiality, faith in the people, and prioritisation of Indian safety and security. The Indian Army has always kept silent and let its actions speak for themselves.
The Spear Corps and the Mountain Division of the Indian Army in Manipur are doing a phenomenal task in curbing and controlling the ethnic strife in the state. Though faced with immense challenges and complexities, the Spear Corps and the Mountain Division in Manipur are working day and night to ensure that peace and prosperity reigns supreme once again in the beautiful border state of Manipur.
