By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

In recent years, the relationship between Pakistan and the United Kingdom (UK) has taken a complex turn, marked by a series of events that hint at underlying tensions and possible motivations that extend beyond mere coincidence. The issues surrounding Israel-Palestine conflict and continuing ban on Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flights to Europe and UK are believed by some to be driving Pakistan’s ill-intentioned responses towards the UK. These actions are seen by many as a subtle form of retaliation, weaving together incidents of political unrest and conspiracy.

Recent political unrest in the UK has spotlighted individuals with Pakistani backgrounds. These events, while seemingly disconnected on the surface, points to a deeper narrative of revenge and frustration from the Pakistan side. On July 29, 2024 three young girls were killed in a knife attack at a Taylor Swift-themed dance and yoga event in seaside town of Southport, in the north of England. Eight more children and two adults were injured. Later on, police arrested a 17-year-old from a village nearby. Almost immediately after the attack, social media posts spread misinformation regarding the tragic incident falsely implicating a Muslim asylum seeker. The spread of this misinformation was fuelled by Pakistan native Farhan Asif through social media posts. The misinformation led to eruption of riots across almost 20 major cities in UK in just seven days. Asif, was later arrested in Pakistan from Defence Housing Authority Lahore apartment. It is being alleged that these events are reflection of broader geopolitical frustrations. 

Pakistan has long harboured grievances over the treatment of Palestinians, and the UK being historically linked to the creation of Israel, has often been viewed with suspicion. This animosity, simmering under the surface for decades, might now be finding its expression in unexpected ways. The spread of misinformation and subsequent riots in the UK could be interpreted as part of a larger strategy to create unrest and destabilize Western nations that Pakistan perceives as complicit in the ongoing Palestinian plight.

Adding fuel to the fire is the ban on PIA flights to Europe & UK, which has hit Pakistan’s national carrier where it hurts the most. The ban was ordered by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which cited serious safety concerns following the fatal crash of PIA flight PK8303, operated on an Airbus A320 in Karachi on May 22, 2020. Another issue which landed PIA into question was the sensational revelation after this tragic incident by Aviation Minister Gulman Sarwar Khan in which he stated in the Pakistan’s National Assembly that more than 30% of civilian pilots in Pakistan have fake licenses and are not qualified to fly. Almost 1 in 3 pilots in Pakistan had fake licenses at that point of time. This move, ostensibly made over safety concerns, is perceived by some in Pakistan as a political manoeuvre aimed at further isolating the country economically. The ban has not only affected Pakistan’s aviation industry but also deepened the sense of grievance against the UK and the broader European Union. This economic blow could very well be seen as a catalyst for Pakistan’s alleged retaliatory actions, as the country grapples with the loss of revenue and prestige.

Pakistan’s geopolitical strategy, influenced by its relationships with major powers like the US, UK, and Iran, are driving these actions indirectly. While direct state involvement in these incidents is suspected, the possibility that individuals or groups within Pakistan are acting on perceived geopolitical grievances cannot be ruled out. Moreover, internal political dynamics in Pakistan, where factions might see international incidents as a way to gain domestic leverage or align with Middle Eastern politics, further complicate the picture.

The series of events involving individuals with Pakistani backgrounds underscores the complex interplay of misinformation, cultural identity, and geopolitical tensions. Whether motivated by revenge, ideological beliefs, or economic pressures, these actions illustrate the multifaceted nature of international political unrest and the deep-seated frustrations that can drive nations and individuals to act against perceived injustices. The PIA flight ban and the ongoing conflict over Palestine seem to be critical elements in this unfolding drama, suggesting that Pakistan’s actions may be part of a larger, more calculated strategy to express its discontent with the West.

By: Arup Maity

 ‘Asamudrahimachal’ (Extending from the ocean to the Himalayas- holistic India) – is an ancient geographical notion that constructs the ambit of the Pan-Indian subcontinent- geopolitically and culturally. “Indian Subcontinent” created itself by its landscape, because it “creates a natural frame” as British journalist Tim Marshall argued in his well-known book ‘Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics’. So, the foreign policy to accomplish the national interest (predominantly security and economic power) is tremendously impacted by its geopolitical location (from northern Indira Col to southern Indira Point- Quadrangular). According to Napoleon “the policy of a state lies in its geography.” So, its diverse and vibrant geography (because India is the 7th largest country in the world) has a dynamic range of impacts on its foreign policy – geo-strategic (border), geo-political and geo-economic.

India’s geopolitical location landed in the ‘Heart of Asia’ because the highest mountain range of the world, Himalayas is in the north and Hindukush is in the north-west, and also India has common border sharing with Afghanistan and Pakistan in the north-west, China, Bhutan and Nepal in the north, Myanmar in the east, Bangladesh to the east of West Bengal and Sri Lanka in the south. Physically, all these countries are not dealing borders with others, but they are linked and united by India in South-Asia. Since independence, its mammoth demonstration has given the quest to become a global power to it; and this aspect is channeling its foreign policy widely (from NAM leadership to UNSC membership).

The Himalayan frontier is a natural border between Sino-India and an enclosure for India’s external security. Countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh played the role of a peaceful buffer state, so India’s broad terrain encouraged India to become a dominant power naturally and to continue it India produced ‘Neighborhood First’ policy. India shares a lengthy border area (around 3917 km) with Asia’s unipolar power- China (in the multipolar world order), and geographical difficulties and technological disadvantages of India give China the chance to ‘occupy’ the Indian land by transgressing the LOC- the Asaphila, Longju Valley, Isu-Razi-Pass, Barahoti Plains, Demchok, Galawan Valley (between Aksai Chin and Ladakh) etc. Difficult areas are the point of the dispute between Indo-China relation (as an example – the Aksai Chin area is India’s integral part and very important for warfare strategy for and China has occupied it). And maintaining sovereignty and integrity are the most crucial for each country, and significantly, India and China became frenemies in businesses and rivals in geo-strategy. Based on it, India maintains ‘reciprocal’ relations with China.

But in the present zeitgeist of hyperrealism and innovation of high-tech technology (and most effective nuclear weapons) and its use in foreign policy and military, are reducing the influence of geography- like, 19,300 feet road, Galwan Valley Bridge in eastern Ladakh, Atal tunnel under the Rohtang Pass etc projects by the Indian government’s ‘Bharatmala Pariyojana’, and bullet trains near the border by the Chinese government. Similarly, the Indo-Pak, geographically, “are tied together within the geography of the Indian subcontinent,” and rivalry (sanctify) relation is moving based on Kashmir; a large area of Kashmir’s is occupied by Pakistan and it can be a gateway (by infrastructure development) of middle east Asia.

The Indo-Myanmar relation originates from India’s geographical and geo-cultural historical similarities. Moreover, International organisations like Non-Alignment-Movement, SAARC, BIMSTEC, Ashgabat Agreement, etc are predominantly led by India- and it happens only by its immense landscape location. Sir Halford Mackinder, the eminent geopolitical thinker, emphasised ‘the power of land for any country,’ and his doctrine suggested that India’s large landscape (2.4% of the world) gives the advantage to process its foreign policy. And geopolitically, the Indian military power is the consequence of its foreign policy and economic growth, but India’s infrastructure development in its border area (geographically) can formulate the military power as the cause for its foreign policy and economic growth.

India is a ‘subcontinent’ not only by land but by ocean manifests too, because the Bay of Bengal, the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea are respectively to the south-east, south and south-west. The Indian Ocean named after India – directly signifies its soft power in the Indian Ocean (India’s coastline is around 7516 km including islands). Strategically, Africa and Australia continents and the ASEAN region are intertwined and connected by the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean under India’s influence and democratic practice, because Indian foreign policy has always accepted the “Friendship Across the Seas” policy. American Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan enamored as the ‘Prophet of Seapower’ in geopolitics endorses that India’s presence and position in the Indian Ocean are extensively significant, and to expedite India’s sphere of influence the Indian Government established the ‘Indo-Pacific’ division under the Ministry of External Affairs, which is blending ‘Look East’ and ‘Look West’ Policies. To increase India’s future integrity and economic growths to counter its instantaneous strategic threat from the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy of China, India is intensifying its geopolitical (maritime security) military bases in Karwar under ‘Project Seabird’ (Asia’s largest naval base- internally) etc, and Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka (externally).

Strategically, the sea accessibility is equipping India to be a part of the ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ maritime cooperation with the United States, Australia, and Japan. And additionally, India’s geoeconomics is especially driving by its maritime location, like the Indo-Iran Chabahar Port project to connect with middle-east Asia, Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement (total trade of nearly US$ 64.3 billion in 2016), Indo-Arab world relations (UAE and Saudi Arabia are India’s 3rd and 4th largest trade partner), Indo-African relation (India is now Africa’s 3rd largest trade partner). For the future, India has targeted to increase its agricultural production exports by using its maritime geographic location’s advancement and to attain it India is developing its port capabilities under the ‘Sagarmala Pariyojana’.

Contemporary outcomes illustrate that to maintain the present zeitgeist, India is exploring its natural energy and internal production (solar, ethanol fuel, crop, sugar) as an enormous resource of geographic diversity especially by the ‘monsoon’, and utilising it in its foreign policy with ‘higher export’ interests. And theoretically, India being the largest democracy with its diverse geographic nature and consequently, its greater impact in foreign policy elicits democratic values with its interests. The comprehensive geopolitical world order has acknowledged that the ‘21st century is the Asian century,’ and it is becoming verisimilitude with the vehement of Indian economic and foreign affairs power by the impact of India’s diverse geographic location and resources, explicitly.

By: Sourishree Ghosh, Research Analyst, GSDN

Cyprus is located at the geographical juncture of Eurasia and Africa. It has an excellent geostrategic history and legacy of being the core of the world continent “Afro-Eurasia” wherein three civilisations meet. It is located in the sea lane of the great maritime highway which connects the Mediterranean Sea through the two gates namely the Suez Canal and Bab-el-Mandeb with the Indian Ocean. These are the Strait of Hormuz which leads to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca which connects to the Pacific. These choke points are crucial to the economic and national security of the world economies. The island country has been at the arena of rivalry between Eastern and Western Civilisation. The conflict for influence and control in this region among major powers such as the United States, Britain and Europe has led to instability and insecurity in the Cyprus region.

Recently, Egypt Foreign Sameh Shoukry and Cyprus Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos agreed upon the importance of immediate Gaza ceasefire. This is a crucial development given the importance of Cyprus on the West Asian geographical and geopolitical landscape. In the ongoing Israel Palestine conflict, Turkey has taken a stance against Israel while Cyprus has chosen Israel. It is also one of the four countries that lie at the borders of the eastern Mediterranean and face the strategic issue of regional stability in the region as the region is always in turmoil, so many question whether there can be a strategic eastern Mediterranean alliance among Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel. However, this is nearly impossible in the near future as only Israel and Turkey are cooperating on security terms and the relations among other members have not been very promising. Cyprus in its foreign policy has adopted a Third World-oriented foreign policy which accepted the Arab positions vis-a-vis Israel.

Cyprus has also developed into a well-established international business and investment centre in the Mediterranean and also a link between Europe and the Middle East which acts as a gateway to the markets of Europe and Middle East. It is also the point where different political entities establish themselves. The region has been in grave political turmoil which has posed a challenge to international order and stability. These include the tensions between Turkey and Iran, radical Islamist movements and ethnic conflicts such as the war in Afghanistan. On the other hand, there are the western-oriented states in the eastern Mediterranean region which have a long-term strategic interest in the region for maintenance of peace.

It has also developed into a European hub for investment as the EU membership allows its access to more than 30 EU countries. The island country is also an international shipping centre which is among the ten biggest commercial fleets in the world. Over 1800 ships have been registered under the Cypriot flag. It is home to major ports of Limassol and Larnaca which handles cargo and passenger traffic and has also participated in the regional trade initiatives such as the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Corridor. It plays a role of the bridge with regard to trade, business and investment between the European and the Middle Eastern countries. The recent discovery of the reserves of natural gas in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus which has indeed increased the importance of Cyprus.

The conflicting interests between Greece and Turkey (although both of them are members of NATO) has led to a stalemate in the peace process for the reunification of Cyprus. Athens and Ankara are the disputed territories wherein both the states claim their rights over the aerospace over the Aegean Sea and the seabed beneath it. NAM has also failed to bring recognition to Cyprus. The United Nations Peace Keeping Force in Cyprus has maintained the military status quo which has prevented the outbreak of serious hostilities; however, the peace process continues to be stalled. The Mediterranean Middle Eastern strategic importance has led to the involvement of the NATO and UN, and this region is in a continual state of “no-final settlement” which has not solidified into a balance of power for maintenance of the vested western interests. The European Union is aiming for maintenance of good relations with Turkey to make it a buffer for the West Asian region.   

The accession of Cyprus to the European Union (EU) in 2004 has led to the development of an extended outpost position in the Hinterland region which also projects the influence of the European Union. Geographically, it has made Cyprus the far eastern point of the European Union and also signifies the influence of the European Union in the Middle Eastern region and also into the coveted Persian Gulf region, which has a substantial amount of fossil fuel reserves. Though Cyprus mainly has a Greek population, it looks more towards Europe in its cultural and political taste.

Cyprus is an island nation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea which is not far from Israel, Syria, Turkey and Egypt. The island country is situated at the centre of a geopolitical chessboard which is intertwined in the threads of historical narrative, regional power dynamics, and international developments. Cyprus has also been conquered by many foreign powers from Greek and Romans to Byzantine and Ottoman rule. The country has also been a hotbed of territorial conflicts concerning sea borders. The discovery of the gas reserves have also made Cyprus less dependent on Russia, which played a major role in helping Cyprus out of the 2013 financial crisis. In 2022, a historic deal was signed between Lebanon and Israel for sharing the gas field along the maritime border. The Cyprus-based DEH Quantum Energy has also been working for the development of a submarine cable for connecting the power grids of Greece, Cyprus and Israel. The Eurasia Interconnector is the 2000 megawatt project which is also the world’s longest submarine power cable. Cyprus has also been making a lot of efforts for the development of a humanitarian corridor in Gaza.

Cyprus has also been at the forefront of the migration crisis. Cyprus also stands at the crossroads of the cultural, linguistic and historic crossroads between Europe and Asia. The division of Cyprus into two parts, namely the Greek controlled South and the Turkish controlled north has had far reaching geopolitical implications. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus has not gained recognition as a separate country. This division continues to play a crucial role in shaping the geopolitical dynamics of the region. This is the legacy of the 1974 war with Turkey, in which there was a ethnic cleansing process which led to the movement of the Muslim Cypriot Turks to the north while the Greek Orthodoxy Cypriots moved towards the south. It is an ironic fact that Turkey has occupied the land of Cyprus, which is an EU member and the fact that the former seeks to be integrated into the EU.

Cyprus is a rich source of regional energy discoveries with its substantial reserves of natural gas, and thus also a hotbed of maritime disputes among the regional powers namely Greece, Turkey and Cyprus itself. It is also at the shipping routes for oil. It is one of the potential chokepoints which has led to competition among European powers for control over these chokepoints. Cyprus geographically cannot be attacked by land as it is only accessible by air or water. The position of the island has also given it the shape of a huge military base and aircraft carrier with formidable fortifications. The island also has major OTH 9 (over the horizon limitations) radar installations in the Troodos Range, such as the Mount Olympus, the commercial seaports of Limassol and Larnaca, two military bases of Akrotiri and Dhekelia and the presence of a primary international standard airport in Larnaca, and these developments have furthered the geopolitical importance of Cyprus.   

Geopolitical Importance for India

In recent years, there has been a growing bilateral engagement between Cyprus and India as the two countries have a number of strategic convergences on the issues in their respective neighbourhoods, the Indo-Pacific region, West Asia and on Europe. Moreover, Greece also aspires to become a gateway of India to Europe in the arenas of trade and investment under the Greece 2.0 Masterplan. There are many areas of strategic convergence between India and Greece in the sectors of security and defence such as joint participation in the exercise such as Iniohos 23 and Tarang Shakti. India’s support for the non-permanent candidacy for Greece for the year 2025-26 is of paramount importance for the latter. It also appreciates India’s long-standing position on the Cyprus issue. India supports the creation of a Bi-Communal, Bi-Zonal federation based on the UN Resolution.  Greece also welcomes India’s Indo-Pacific Initiative. (IPOI). India and Cyprus also recently signed an MoU on defence and military cooperation, which also reflects the growing importance of Cyprus for India.

The India-Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) is a promising development for Cyprus as well as for India. The island has a strategic role to play in the development of the corridor given its strategic geographical location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, which serves as the crucial hub linking Europe, Asia and Africa. Cyprus is a part of the IMEC initiative which aims at exploration of the energy exports such as natural gas, electricity and hydrogen, which aligns with Cyprus aims for a diversified and sustainable energy portfolio.

One of the factors which has been given importance in the National Strategy on Cyprus Diaspora 2023-28 is the Cyprus Diaspora. The Cyprus Diaspora is estimated to be 0.8 million strong, which also enhances the geopolitical importance of the country in the form of knowledge transfer to their native industries, investment, promotion of the art and culture of Cyprus and remittances. This could also be a potential political tool for furthering the interests of Cyprus in the global geopolitical space. The end of Greek-Turkish tensions over the Cyprus issue would be beneficial in the long term for the growth and development in the region. A Cyprus stalemate would lead to extension of the influence of the EU in the eastern Mediterranean region. It would also weaken the Islamist and ultra-nationalist elements in the domestic politics of Turkey. This would also reduce the prospects of a development of an extremist Islamist state on the north of Cyprus, which is one of Iran’s strategic foreign policies.  To conclude, the geographical factors such as topography, size, location, climate and availability of the natural resource have shaped the political history, influence and importance of Cyprus in the geopolitical chessboard of global politics.

By: Julia Jose

In the recent times, the France Far Right National Rally has won resounding victory in the first round of parliamentary election. The factor for emergence of Far Rights movements comes as the perception that is built around the Africans and Afro-Americans in South America being the major threats and cause of all problems. The historical presence of European colonial powers in Africa has led to ethnic differences, nationalist sentiments and animosity towards the West. Colonial injustices come across as the major reason for conflicts, migration and instability from Africa. The Far-Right movements exploit these concerns to promote nativism and protectionism. Far Right movements consider Africa as burden to western civilization and advocates stringent border control, reduced assistance and limited engagement with the continent. There are significant concerns as there are some African nations who consider themselves as superior to others, they mirror Europe by coming up with stringent border control against their fellow Africans. This undermines the effort to establish solidarity between Africa and West which hampers peace and development between both the nations.

Historical Background

The modern-day People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria is now a sovereign state in North Africa. Before 1962, Algeria was a French colony, dating back to French invasion of Algiers in 1830. Following a brutal conquest, France began the policy of civilising the North African colony. Algerians who rejected the Sharia law and accepted French law were allowed to vote for these representatives. In 1954, Front De Liberation Nationale waged a war against France to gain independence. The conflict was devastating enough to bring the collapse of fourth republic in France and the rise of fifth republic headed by Charles De Gaulle. Finally on March 18, 1962 the Evian accords were signed which led to formation of Algeria and end of 8-year long war. A large majority of Arab population had second rate status, not as citizens.

French Algerians

French Algeria refers to period between 1830 to 1962 when Algeria was under brutal French colonial regime. Once Algeria gained Independence, French settlers who had to leave North America still fantasized regarding the glory of that period and what would have been if Algeria was never liberated. Jean Marie Le Pen, proponent of French Algeria and leading figure during battle of Algiers in 1957 was involved in tortures and war crimes according to several investigations.

Who is OAS?

The Organisation Arme secrete, it was formed in Madrid in 1961, by a group of activists for French Algeria, including student leaders Pierre Lagaillarde and Jean-Jacques Susini. Raoul Salan was a French military officer who prevented Algeria from gaining independence from France and came up with an organization of right-wing extremist called Organization De Armee Secrete [OAS] in campaign of terror against government of Charles De Gaulle in both France and Algeria. OAS later on accelerated the breakdown of French Algeria and the departure of French. OAS violence impacted the neighbourhood with mortar shells and snipers.

In 2021, France decided to cut by half the visas which led to diplomatic crisis with the Algerians. It also came across as the year when 63,000 visas were granted compared to 200,000 and 400,000 in the previous years. Back in 1962, French had decided to come up with National office for Algerian Labor [ONAMO] for selection of workers in Algeria. ONAMO was followed by 1964 Nekkache-Grandval labour agreement and it also had the objective of limiting the Algerians to France

It was also observed that more applicants are rejected in Algeria, whereas more than 392,000 applicants were rejected in 2022.Visa rejections were basically used as a tool by the European governments including France to deport those who entered Europe without proper authorization. Recently in the course of elections far rights have proposed to return those classified as criminals, security risks and unemployed back to Algeria.

Different Perceptions if Far Right comes into power

If the National Rally comes into power either it will implement immigration program and carries out mass deportation of illegal immigrants to basically dismantle the 1968 agreement that binds Algeria to France and to satisfy the electorate. Algerian sociologist Nasser Jabi confirmed that the rise of far rights will be first experience in the history of relation between Algeria and France.

Driencourt is of view that if far rights come to power, then they will abrogate the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement, and will not compensate the victims of French nuclear test in the Algerian desert and not observe the anniversary of October 17, 1961 massacre of Algerians in Paris.

Initiatives of Cooperation

Three day visit comes in less then two months after Algeria marks six decades of Independence following 132 years of French colonial rule and the eight-year war. Three day visit symbolises European powers need to replace Russian energy imports from Africa and to increase its clout in Sahel and North Africa. In 2022, Algeria and France established a joint commission, an initiative by Emmanuel Macron for fair treatment in memory of two states. In the Algerian war of independence, 300,000 to 1.5 million people which entailed combatants as well as civilians are supposed to have died. Algerians have also sought financial reparations with respect to French nuclear test conducted in Sahara . Algeria and French signed an agreement with respect to retrieval of Algerian archives from the period of French colonization. Algeria insists on addressing four main concerns with France. Firstly complete retrieval of the archives, remains of skulls and  remains of resistance fighters, compensation for victims of nuclear test and clean up of land contaminated by nuclear radiation and disclose the fate of missing. In November 2023, the two countries agreed to return 2 million digitized documents related to looted possessions and colonial period.

Conclusion

If RN government comes into power, then migration issue will be their priority with respect to Algeria. Emergence of far rights can strain the relations between Algeria and France considering their colonial trauma and struggle but, in the meantime, both the countries can work on mutual aspects to correct the historical struggle and resolve the tensions between them. Cooperation between both the countries will allow the natives of different culture and ethnicity to live in the country with peace and it will also keep up West’s whole notion of Multiculturalism, rules-based order and liberal values in all aspects. Continuing and enhanced cooperation between intelligence agencies, NGOs and community activists is necessary for addressing this critical threat.

By: Pritam Sarbabidya

The dispute between India and Bangladesh over the Teesta River project has been a hotly debated matter for long, constituting a notable piece of the South Asian geopolitical chessboard. These stakes have risen recently – thanks to China’s emergence as a significant actor. The complex interplay between India and Bangladesh on the issue of Teesta waters and the rise of China in this region have serious implications for the Indian foreign policy, security and strategic interests.

The Teesta River starts from Tso Lhamo Lake in north Sikkim at around 5,280 metres above sea level. It flows for approximately 150 km within Sikkim and another 123 km in West Bengal before it enters into Bangladesh via Mekhligunj in Cooch Behar district; then it flows for another 140 km in Bangladesh until it empties into Bay of Bengal. Teesta is the fourth largest transboundary river flowing into Bangladesh with about two thousand seven hundred fifty square kilometres floodplain area but mainly eighty three percent of its catchment area falls under India while remaining seventeen percent lies within Bangladesh.

The deal was also opposed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who said the proposed merger would have a negative impact on North Bengal’s agricultural sector. In 2019, Mamta Banerjee admitted that Bangladesh suffered from nonsharing of Teesta water. In early 2017, the West Bengal CM also mentioned other proposals for sharing water of Torsa, Manshai, Sankosh and Dhansai but did not mention the Teesta River. The agreement once again came into discussion with the visit of Bangladesh PM to India on June 22, 2024.

During this meeting, PM Modi said that a team of experts will visit Bangladesh to discuss conservation and management of the Teesta River. Next is the statement made by the Prime Minister of Bangladesh during his visit to China. He said that he preferred India over China in theimplementation of the “Teesta Plan”. In early 2020, China announced a major project in waterdredging and lake and dam construction that is expected to cost $1 billion.

For India, the Teesta River project is not a bilateral issue with Bangladesh, but an important issue related to the regional power. China’s presence in India is difficult for India’s security calculations. The project has significant geographical implications for India. The project is located near the important “Chicken’s Neck” or Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land connecting India’s northeast with the rest of the country. India’s concerns include the proximity of Chinese personnel to this sensitive region and the broader regional impact of China’s development in Bangladesh. India must strengthen its security apparatus and increase surveillance to reduce the threat from China. India also cannot afford one of its immediate neighbours i.e. Bangladesh to get closer with its aggressive opponent ‘China’, specially learning from the past deal in case of Sri Lanka, not taking up the deal of the Hambantota Port.

China’s interest in the Teesta River project is not about water management; It covers broader strategic interests. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to improve Asia’s infrastructure, has impacted investments and projects in Bangladesh. Joining the Teesta River project would allow China to gain a foothold in India’s backyard, a move that will irritate New Delhi.

Another part of the story shows that the water conflict in South Asia has the potential to turn into a serious situation and is currently affecting the region. India’s participation in “water diplomacy” and its emphasis on fair and shared swimming is very important in preventing such incidents.This also relates to the environmental matrix. Any development of the river should also be given priority in terms of environmental sustainability. Environmentalists, for example, have also expressed concern about the plan, citing the October 2023 release of a glacial lake in the Teesta basin that caused the deaths of many people and the destruction of the Teesta III hydroelectric power station.

Cooperation with China may be attractive for Bangladesh as it can receive support. However, the longterm impact of this partnership needs to be analyzed more carefully. Therefore, India needs to increase its negotiation efforts to resolve the issue and ensure the consensus of West Bengal leaders on the issue. Under Indian law, transboundary water sharing agreements require approval from state governments. Therefore, India should engage in peacekeeping policies to ensure that its actions are not perceived as aggression or negligence by Bangladesh. Failure to address Dhaka’s concerns could push Bangladesh further into Beijing’s world and undermine India’s efforts to maintain its influence in South Asia.

Teesta Water Project highlights the interplay between geopolitics, development and security dynamics. China’s entry adds a new challenge to India’s strategic thinking and requires a well-thoughtout and thoughtful response. As India and Bangladesh advance on the chessboard, dip lomacy,cooperation and strategic solutions are crucial to ensure regional stability and shared success through cooperation. The Teesta River is a vital lifeline for millions of people and has the potential to become a symbol of ‘cooperation’ rather than ‘competition’ and uphold India’s philosophy of ‘co-operation’, creating a better future for both countries.

By: Kashif Anwar, Research Analyst, GSDN

In evolving global geopolitics, relationship between two nations not only defines the nature of bilateral relationship they have but how vital they are to each other. Following the dissolution of former Soviet Union, Croatia declared its independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, allowing China and Croatia to established diplomatic relations on May 13, 1992. Since then, both nations worked towards to improve relations on various level from cultural interaction to strengthening of economic cooperation and trade. Education and Cultural cooperation inked in March 1993 and Comprehensive and Cooperation agreement signed in 2005 started a transformative period in Croatia-China relationship. As in the last two decades Chinese investment in infrastructure projects in Croatia like Senj Wind Farm or Pelješac Bridge and ongoing cultural and education exchange program has improved the bilateral relationship.

Although, US-China geopolitics especially in the context of Europe has kept European nations in a complicated situation in the context of economic, security and national interest, Croatia approach isn’t completely different. Overall, in Croatia’s Foreign Policy China’s isn’t a prime focus like the National Security Strategy of 2017 document doesn’t mention China and Foreign Ministry’s Implementation Programme for 2021-24 refer China in positive sense in the context of the Chinese-led ‘China-Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Cooperation Initiative’. Such an approach shows Croatia will align their foreign policy with the European Union (EU) having a broader approach towards China, considering growing differences between the West and China.

With Croatia exposure to China is 3%, Croatia’s export to China is 79 million Euros and import from China is 1.3 billion Euro in 2023, largely remain the same since 2021, shows Croatia will be less impacted by the EU’s de-risking strategy to counter China. Further, no screening of the Chinese investment in place and trade data highlight that the Croatia-China bilateral ties will remain the same despite the on-going de-risking strategy.

Recent visit by Wu Hongbo, a Special Representative of the Chinese government on European Affairs to Croatia from June 27-29, 2024 to address the Dubrovnik Forum has raised various issues. The paper will discuss whether the visit will strengthened Croatia-China relationship or a change will emerge in Croatia and China bilateral relationship due to the change in the West’s approach towards China in the recent years.

Wu Hongbo’s Visit and Croatia on the US, EU and China

On June 27, Wu Hongbo, a Special Representative of the Chinese government on European Affairs met Croatia’s high-level officers like Zvonimir Frka-Petešić and Frano Matušić, State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of Croatia. During the visit, he stated China want to further deliver on its promise, and the Chinese government is ready to work with Croatia on vital common understandings which were reached between China and Croatia to advance their bilateral ties. The visit allows China and Croatia to have in-depth discussion on mutual interest issues and concerns like China-EU relationship and cooperation between China and the Central and Eastern European nations.

The Wu visit highlighted that China is working to have a vision of a community with a shared future for mankind for which China will promote a new type of international relations and such aspect was elaborated at the Dubrovnik Forum. At the forum, Dubravka Šuica, a Croatian Politician and the Vice President of the European Commission for Demography since 2019, emphasised that Croatia and the EU should recalibrate their relationship with China. Considering a shift is taking place in the EU, Croatia reiterating their commitment to One China policy, the upcoming Presidential election in December 2024 is being closely watched.

As relation between the West and China is on a low in recent years, the ongoing developments in Taiwan, Middle East and Ukraine, and the role and position of China in such developments have raised concerns and China’s intent are being questioned by the West. However, former Croatian President Stjepan Mesić, under whose leadership the comprehensive and cooperation agreement was signed which has improved China-Croatia economic cooperation, nn the issue of China, he argues that there is a silent (economic) war going on between the US and China and the EU should go back to its pre-2019 policies, follow less US demands and accept China’s economic (olive branch) outreach as the century belongs to China. As he argues China has a pivotal role in the global geopolitics and stresses China’s development is ahead of other countries which isn’t economic in nature and other nations and especially Europe to accept China’s opening-up which took in the last few years.

However, following the passage of the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) in 2022, which protect European economies and restrict Chinese companies, and could impact China-Croatia relation. It targets tender worth over 250 million Euro and substantially subsidised companies, such moves impact the Chinese infrastructure investment drive in Europe and infrastructure project being awarded to Chinese companies. China views Croatia following EU’s approach, will impact Croatia-China ties and impact and limit all future Chinese projects in Croatia. As FSR has caused panic among Chinese bidders as they started to withdraw from tenders to avoid any investigation and has impacted Croatian government drive to attract Chinese investment in the infrastructure projects.

As Croatia-China economic cooperation has remained positive with a favourable attitude towards Chinese investors to invest in sectors like railways, energy, logistics and infrastructure. Such an aspect is visible in the case of China’s Norinco International US$ 220 million investment in a 156 MW wind farm in Senj – the biggest Chinese investment – which got delayed by COVID-19 and once pandemic stopped the Croatian government invited Norinco and the project got completed by the end of 2021. On the other hand, the recent political shift within the EU has been prompt by growing the US demands and involvement which could change cooperation dynamics between China and Croatia.

Conclusion

Although, Croatia remains hopeful of the China-CEE Cooperation Initiative and stresses on EU’s principles, values and rules as a paramount framework and operate and cooperate with China within China-CEE Cooperation. However, for Croatia, the trade relation with China has remained deficit for long and despite such circumstances it continues to see China as a potential trading partner. On the other hand, other EU members are slowly distancing itself from any cooperation with China as recently witness in the case of Italy who withdrew from China’s BRI. Further, with the US Presidential elections on the brink and the scope of former US President Donald Trump being re-elected as the US President is high, Europe’s dynamic, relations between the US and EU and ongoing West’s silent war will see tremendous changes. Under such a situation, Croatia-China relation will walk a tightrope in the coming months and whether Croatia bulges to West’s pressure and distances itself from China, will have to be seen in the coming times.

By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

In the elections last year in October 2023 the government of Poland changed and the former Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk from 2007 to 2014 was re-elected. From 2014 to 2019 Tusk was President of the European Council, and from 2019 to 2022 he was the president of the European People’s Party. Change of the government came with many new challenges as they promised to make things better for the people of the Poland. New Government has to face challenges such as rising Inflation, changing migration, Energy Crises, Economics and strengthening their Military Power.

Poland has historically occupied a central position in European great power politics. The presence of powerful and assertive neighbours such as Russia and Germany have significantly shaped the course of Polish history. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia and Germany have often held divergent views. They have consistently agreed on Poland’s strategic importance in Europe. Both nations considered influence over Poland a natural right, making the country a potential battleground.

Importance of Poland in Europe

Poland became the part of European Union on May 01, 2004. There are 53 representatives from Poland in the European Parliament. Being the member of EU, Poland plays an important role in the geopolitics of Europe. Poland’s historical background offers a rich geopolitical and geostrategic resource. As one of Europe’s most significant historical powers, Poland prioritizes having a greater influence in continental politics. Poland boasts a rich history of citizen engagement. It has the oldest constitution in Europe, and the renowned Solidarity movement lead the country’s transition to democracy in the early 90s. It has been an active member of NATO and the EU since the turn of the century – two decades on, Poland faces new challenges.

Poland is one of the most important parts of Europe. Today, due to its geographical location, Poland continues to act as a barometer of great power politics. The Russia-Ukraine War has reignited the debate over Poland’s role in Central and Eastern Europe. Analysing Poland’s post-Cold War policies reveals a trend of closer cooperation with actors like the United States and the United Kingdom to safeguard itself from its two powerful neighbours. Poland’s increasing alignment with US-UK-oriented geopolitical strategies is rooted in the aforementioned historical reservations and dilemmas. The support from the United States and the United Kingdom has facilitated the limited adoption of the game-making characteristics advocated by Eugeniusz Romer in Polish geopolitics.

Being a bordering country to Ukraine, Poland is playing a major role in Russia-Ukraine war. At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War, Poland’s active involvement raised many geopolitical questions. The geography of Ukraine is crucial to Poland’s historically and geopolitically driven strategy of becoming an independent player. Specifically, western Ukraine holds significant importance for Polish geopolitics both historically and existentially. The war also became a tool for Poland’s aspirations for regional leadership. This leadership was facilitated by a new geopolitical alignment, supported by the US and the UK, in which Poland actively participated in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. Consequently, Warsaw views the consolidation of the American presence in the region, replacing that of Russia and Germany, as advantageous for its interests in the short and medium term. In the long term, Poland seeks to enhance its regional position with an independent strategic framework. However, for Poland to fully realize Romer’s envisioned geopolitical capabilities, it must become an independent and essentially self-sufficient geopolitical player.

Warsaw’s attempt to solidify its playmaker credentials with US support may yield short-term benefits. However, in the medium and long term, this approach could exacerbate regional fault lines. Meanwhile, economic interactions with Russia and Germany remain vital for Poland’s economy, highlighting the country’s economic-geopolitical dilemma.

Geopolitical aspirations of Poland

Poland’s geopolitical objectives are being reshaped due to tensions with the EU over the rule of law and uncertainty in the geopolitical context with the rise of China and Russia. A future Tusk government also holds the promise of progress in pivotal areas such as migration, climate policy, and EU treaty reform, where Poland has the capacity to act as a pivotal link within the European Union. Additionally, a reinvigorated commitment to democratic principles will bolster U.S. foreign policy objectives, enhancing bilateral and multilateral relationships during a period marked by heightened global strategic rivalry. Turning to the economy, its energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, and a transition to renewables risks jeopardising energy security. Anxiety over the rising energy prices and living costs are compounded by rising global inflation. Poland’s economy coming under pressure might threaten aspirations of joining the G20.

Changing migration patterns both in and out of the country are presenting Poland with the dual challenges of integrating newcomers and encouraging young people to set down roots. Poland has been issuing the highest number of first residence permits to non-EU immigrants in the European Union (EU) for the past six years. The number of foreign workers registered in the social insurance system has skyrocketed from under 200,000 in 2015 to over 1.1 million at the start of 2024. To deal with this immigration problem Poland developed a new migration strategy for 2025 to 2030. The initial version of the document is set to be finished by September 2024. It is expected to be put into use before Poland takes on the role of EU presidency in 2025. The finalized strategy will result in creating new laws about migration, such as a new act on foreigners. Poland has not had a formal migration strategy since it was abolished in 2016.

In the EU, Poland is the third biggest carbon emitter after Germany and Italy in terms of total annual emissions. Even today up to 85% of Poland’s energy is sourced from fossil fuels, making its energy sector one of the most carbon-intensive in Europe. Poland’s power sector alone makes 70% electricity from coal. Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP 2040) and the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) are still pending, but the existing versions offer indicative insights: Poland’s 2021- 2030 NECP, updated in 2019, set a target of 21-23% of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by 2030. In August 2023, Clean Air Task Force (CATF) conducted public polling on awareness and perception of clean firm energy technologies (including CCS, superhot rock energy, advanced nuclear energy, and low-carbon hydrogen) across six different European countries, including Poland. The polling covered questions on the interest in climate news, awareness of clean energy technologies, and perceptions of clean energy technologies. Overall, the results demonstrate widespread public support for a range of clean firm energy sources and technologies in Poland and beyond.

The military has been one of the most important topics of discussion in Poland since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, as the country prepares for the risk of the conflict at its border spilling into its territory. Poland claims to become the strongest army in the future in the entire Europe. Polish has various military force and strategies improvement goals for 2032. They will consist of five services: Land Forces, Navy, Air Force, Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defence Forces. Military spending has increase sharply in the last few years, due to the military’s modernisation plan. This item of expenditure has reached around 4% of GDP in 2023 and 2024, a record among EU countries, and should stand at around 2-3% in the following years.

Poland has significant economic challenges. It is still dealing with increased inflation 6.1% by the end of 2023 and anaemic annual economic growth of 0.4% in 2023, down from 5.5% a year earlier in the post-pandemic recovery period. The budget deficit, which is currently at 2.5% of GDP, is set to rise to 4.5% to accommodate some of the election promises. Recovery funds from the EU are set to provide some fiscal breathing room. But these funds might also raise demand, which could push inflation even higher. The coalition’s economic policy is likely to be characterised by targeted, yet cautious, interventions. The big promises made during the election such as more spending, tax cuts and bigger tax credits will face a reality check against the backdrop of inflation and a bigger budget deficit.

Conclusion

Poland right now is facing major challenges due to inflation, financial problems, energy crisis and due to war in the neighbouring country. The new government last year has promised to do their best to solve most of these challenges. However, upcoming years will show the reality check of the promises. Poland’s heavy industry produce a high employment rate, approximately 20% of the total workforce and gross value added (20%), while also being responsible for 42.56 million tons of CO2 emissions – 14% of the country’s total emissions. Therefore, transforming Poland’s industrial base in an economically viable and climate-beneficial way will be one of the most important tasks for the new government.

The Russia-Ukraine War has reignited the debate over Poland’s role in Central and Eastern Europe. The war has also become a tool for Poland’s aspirations for regional leadership. The assistance from the US and the UK has provided limited opportunities for Poland to “simultaneously protect itself” from Russia and Germany. Poland also has to realize the need to be independent from relying on USA and UK. In short term, getting support from the US and the UK is a good strategy but in the long term, Poland seeks to enhance its regional position with an independent strategic framework.

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has recently released a report criticizing the Indian government’s actions in Jammu and Kashmir, five years following the revocation of the region’s special autonomous status. The report claims that the Indian government has failed to restore freedoms of speech and association, and it accuses the government of continuing repressive practices such as arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings. However, examining the situation more closely reveals a narrative that contradicts these allegations and underscores the progress made in the region.

The Indian government’s revocation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019 aimed to integrate Jammu and Kashmir more closely with the rest of India, intending to foster economic development and stability. While the decision met some resistance, it has also led to notable positive changes.

Contrary to the claims in HRW’s report, there has been a noticeable decline in militant activities and overall violence in the region, as evidenced by data from various sources. The reduction in civilian and security personnel casualties highlights the improved security situation, achieved through strategic measures and effective governance, contributing to a safer environment for residents and tourists alike.

Recent events, such as a grand gathering at Government Degree College (GDC) Shopian on August 3, 2024 demonstrate the restoration of normalcy and economic development. This event, organized by the South Asia Centre for Peace and People’s Empowerment in collaboration with GDC Shopian, saw hundreds of students, academicians, journalists, and others discuss peace, nation-building, and positive developments post-Article 370 abrogation. The event took place in a district that was once a hub of anti-India activities and a no-go area for such constructive gatherings.

Jammu and Kashmir have experienced a resurgence in tourism, commerce, and development activities, contrary to claims of an oppressive environment. Official figures show that the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has doubled to over Rs 2.25 lakh crore from Rs 1 lakh crore before the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. The government’s focus on infrastructure development has led to improved connectivity, enhanced healthcare facilities, and better educational opportunities. Initiatives to promote tourism and local industries have boosted the economy and created employment opportunities for the youth. The recent investment by Emaar in Jammu and Kashmir, totalling Rs 500 crore, exemplifies this progress, with Rs 250 crore allocated for a mega-mall and additional investments for IT towers, expected to create over 10,000 jobs.

While HRW’s report emphasizes allegations of arbitrary detention and suppression of free expression, it is important to acknowledge the legal and administrative mechanisms in place to address such issues. The Indian judiciary remains independent, offering a platform for grievance redressal and ensuring accountability. Allegations of human rights violations are investigated, and appropriate actions are taken against those found guilty. The detentions of lawyers often involve individuals linked to anti-state activities and connections with the hardline Hurriyat Conference.

The Indian government’s efforts to empower local governance and enhance democratic participation are noteworthy. Elections to local bodies and the formation of the Union Territory of Ladakh have allowed for greater representation and decision-making at the grassroots level. This decentralization of power ensures that the voices of the people are heard and their aspirations are met.

The government prioritizes the safety and security of minority communities, including the Kashmiri Pandits. Efforts are underway to facilitate the return of displaced families and address their security concerns. Various schemes have been implemented to provide housing and employment opportunities to those affected by past conflicts.

The portrayal of Jammu and Kashmir as a region plagued by repression and human rights abuses fails to acknowledge the significant progress made in recent years. The Indian government’s efforts to restore normalcy, promote economic development, and ensure citizens’ rights reflect a commitment to the welfare of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. While challenges persist, recognizing the strides made toward peace and prosperity in the region is essential. Rather than succumbing to a narrative of perpetual conflict, it is crucial to acknowledge and support the positive transformations in Jammu and Kashmir.

The government’s decision to shut down the internet in Jammu and Kashmir between 2019 and 2021, while controversial, was a security measure aimed at maintaining peace and preventing the spread of misinformation during the sensitive period. The restrictions were a response to concerns about potential violence and unrest following the abrogation of Article 370. It is important to note that the government has since made significant strides in restoring and improving internet services in the region, recognizing the essential role of connectivity in modern life. High-speed internet services have been installed, enabling better access to information, education, healthcare, and economic opportunities. This development has facilitated digital inclusion and empowered local communities by providing them with the tools needed to engage with the broader world, thus fostering socio-economic growth. The move towards improving internet infrastructure reflects the government’s commitment to integrating Jammu and Kashmir into the digital economy and enhancing the quality of life for its residents.

The conclusion of the Human Rights Watch report on Jammu and Kashmir should consider substantive progress made since the revocation of Article 370. After revocation of Article 370 initiatives have led to a marked decrease in violence and increased economic development, which indicates a movement towards normalcy and integration with broader India. These achievements, along with efforts to improve connectivity, healthcare, and educational opportunities, showcase a commitment to enhancing the lives of Jammu and Kashmir’s residents.

By: Mahima Sharma, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Bay of Bengal has long been a vital maritime crossroads, connecting the civilizations of South and Southeast Asia. For centuries, the bustling ports and thriving trade routes around this inland sea fostered a shared sense of community and common destiny among the peoples living along its shores. However, in the aftermath of the mid-20th century decolonization, the Bay of Bengal region became fragmented, with newly independent nations pursuing separate goals and alliance systems. The region’s historic unity and economic integration eroded, replaced by a patchwork of competing interests and uneven development.

It was against this backdrop that the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) was born in 1997, with the ambitious aim of reviving the Bay of Bengal’s role as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. Bringing together Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, BIMSTEC represented a bold attempt to reinvigorate the region’s shared heritage of commerce, culture and community.

Yet more than two decades later, as BIMSTEC marks its 27th anniversary, the question remains: has this regional grouping been a success or a failure? This is what we shall explore in this article.

Potential and Few Feathers

BIMSTEC represents a significant opportunity to revive the historic unity and economic integration of the Bay of Bengal region. By connecting the diverse economies and cultures of South Asia and Southeast Asia, BIMSTEC has the potential to leverage the collective resources and markets of its member countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.

The BIMSTEC region is home to around 1.5 billion people, approximately 21% of the global population, with a cumulative GDP of US$ 2.5 trillion. The annual GDP growth rate has averaged around 6%, indicating the significant economic potential of the grouping.

One of BIMSTEC’s key accomplishments has been in the area of connectivity. The grouping has made progress on important infrastructure projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Facility, which connects India’s northeastern states to the Sittwe Port in Myanmar.  Additionally, the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement has facilitated cross-border road transport, enhancing regional integration.  These connectivity initiatives have the potential to boost trade, investment, and people-to-people linkages across the Bay of Bengal region.

BIMSTEC has also expanded its agenda to cover a wider range of cooperation areas, from counter-terrorism and disaster management to energy and agriculture. The MILEX-18 joint military exercise, for instance, was a major success and a positive sign for the future of BIMSTEC security cooperation.  The member states have demonstrated a willingness to work together on shared challenges, laying the groundwork for deeper regional integration.

Moreover, BIMSTEC has made strides in institutionalizing its framework, with the establishment of a Secretariat in Dhaka in 2014 and the recent adoption of a BIMSTEC Charter in 2022.  These developments have provided the organization with a more robust legal and institutional foundation to pursue its objectives.

Challenges and Failures

Despite the few hoorays outlined earlier, BIMSTEC has struggled to achieve meaningful progress and establish itself as an effective regional organization. The grouping has faced a number of persistent challenges that have hindered its development and impact.

One of the key issues plaguing BIMSTEC has been the inconsistent convening of high-level meetings. The organization’s founding charter called for summits to be held every two years and ministerial meetings annually. However, in the 25 years since its inception, BIMSTEC has managed to hold only five summits – in 2004, 2008, 2014, 2018 and 2022. This lack of regular engagement at the top leadership level has undermined the group’s momentum and decision-making capabilities.

Furthermore, BIMSTEC has also suffered from a lack of sustained commitment and engagement from its member states. India, the largest economy in the grouping, has tended to view BIMSTEC primarily as a fallback option when the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) failed to make progress. Meanwhile, other major members like Thailand and Myanmar remain more focused on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This uneven attention and prioritization by member states has prevented BIMSTEC from developing a strong institutional foundation.

Additionally, BIMSTEC’s agenda covers a wide range of 14 different cooperation areas, from trade and investment to counter-terrorism and disaster management. While this breadth reflects the diverse interests of the member states, it has also made it challenging to achieve tangible progress in any single domain. The lack of prioritization and clear sequencing of initiatives has diluted BIMSTEC’s impact. One of BIMSTEC’s key economic objectives has been the establishment of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) among the member states. However, despite signing a framework agreement in 2004, the grouping is still far from finalizing a comprehensive FTA. Disagreements over tariff concessions and rules of origin have stalled the negotiations, hampering the group’s economic integration agenda.

Lastly, BIMSTEC has also had to contend with various bilateral tensions and disputes among its member states. Issues like the Rohingya refugee crisis between Bangladesh and Myanmar, and the border conflict between Myanmar and Thailand, have posed challenges for regional cooperation and trust-building. These political frictions have hindered BIMSTEC’s ability to forge a cohesive agenda. The emergence of alternative regional frameworks, such as the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Forum, has created doubts about BIMSTEC’s unique value proposition. With China’s involvement in BCIM, some member states may be tempted to prioritize the initiative over BIMSTEC, further undermining the group’s centrality in the Bay of Bengal region.

Conclusion

BIMSTEC’s performance over the past 27 years has been a mixed bag, with both successes and failures. On the one hand, the grouping has made tangible progress in areas like connectivity, institutional development, and expanding its cooperation agenda. However, it has also faced shortcomings like inconsistency, unfocused agenda, unfinished projects and regional tensions.

So as BIMSTEC slowly inches toward its fourth decade, it finds itself at a crossroads. Can this regional organization overcome its structural and operational hurdles to become a truly effective platform for economic integration and geopolitical cooperation in the Bay of Bengal? Or is BIMSTEC destined to remain a well-intentioned but underperforming initiative, overshadowed by the ambitions of its member states and the shifting tides of regional power politics? The answers to these questions will help determine whether BIMSTEC ultimately succeeds or fails in its mission to revive the Bay of Bengal’s historic role as a vital link between South and Southeast Asia.