By: Meghna Dasgupta, Research Analyst, GSDN

The emerging China-Russian relations is one of the most worrisome trends in the current global order, especially for the traditional Western powers. This partnership is a testimony of two powerful players that have sought to challenge the Western domination. However, this partnership also poses profound threats to creating a more stable world, redrawing the map of international security, economy, and politics. The consequences of this partnership also go far beyond the West, impacting key players such as India and changing the balance of power in significant regions of conflict such as Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

China and Russia: A Strategic Partnership Rooted in Pragmatism

The primary motivation behind the China-Russian relationship is cooperative strategic objectives. Both Russia and China view the United States and its allies as adversaries seeking to undermine their regional influence and sovereignty. Their relations have become stronger in the past few years, especially after the crisis that erupted in March 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, leading to Russia’s economic isolation by the West. Russia, looking for economic and military partnership, has shifted more towards China due to it facing economic isolationism. At the same time, China is leveraging its close cooperation with Russia to increase its role in the global arena and counteract the West.

Energy trade remains one of the critical components of Sino-Russian relations. Russia, for instance, has turned out to be one of China’s most vital suppliers of natural gas and oil to aid China’s economic growth. The expanding economic cooperation is exemplified by the Power of Siberia pipeline, which further enhances interdependence. However, this emerging relationship is not without its challenges. Russia’s reliance on China as a primary market for energy exports creates an economic imbalance, leaving Moscow strategically vulnerable to Beijing’s demands.

Security cooperation between the two countries has also fostered increased cooperation, particularly through military training, arms exports, and defence cooperation. Advanced equipment such as Russia’s S-400 missile defence system has been exported to China, bolstering Beijing’s military capabilities. These developments are indicators of strategic alignments that are targeted at countering the USA’s military presence in areas such as Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific. These actions seek to destabilise the West’s alliances, such as NATO.

Due to the effect of the Western imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, China and Russia are shifting from the use of the U.S. dollar in their bilateral trade. Their decision to use national currencies in transactions is an indication of their willingness to undermine the western-dominated financial order. While these efforts are still in their infancy, they pose significant threats to the current global economic order by undermining the dollar’s supremacy and weakening the effectiveness of Western sanctions.

Western Concerns: A Strategic Challenge

Sino-Russian relations directly threaten the post-WWII liberal global order and have serious implications for NATO, the Indo-Pacific, and the world economy.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put pressure on NATO’s financial capabilities since the alliance has been mainly focused on containing Russia in Eastern Europe. Although Russia has become closer to China, the synchronised threat of Russia in Europe and China in the Indo-Pacific region is emerging. Joint military drills and cooperation in the development of strategic plans by both Moscow and Beijing may cause potential simultaneous crises for NATO, being unable to react to both adequately.

China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region, such as China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, align with Russia’s broader goal of countering U.S. influence. Their cooperation may prompt China to adopt even more assertive actions in disputed zones, which will highly threaten the interests of American allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Western powers are especially concerned with the emerging strategic convergence between China and Russia as the rise of this new threat challenges the balance of power in Indo-Pacific security architecture.

The growing economic cooperation between China and Russia, specifically in energy and trade, weakens the impact of the western sanctions on Moscow. The economic support China offers Russia helps it keep up its confrontational approach even if the rest of the world turns against it. For the western economies, partnership also threatens to disrupt global trade systems, particularly if China and Russia succeed in weakening the U.S. dollar’s dominance.

The China-Russian cooperation extends to technology and cybersecurity spheres as well, which causes concern in the West. Russia and China alike have advanced capabilities for cyber warfare, with Russia’s expertise in cyberattacks complementing China’s artificial intelligence and 5G technology capabilities. This partnership presents a great danger to global cybersecurity, with the potential for coordinated cyber operations against Western infrastructure. Western powers must address this challenge by enhancing their cyber defences and fostering technological innovation to maintain a competitive edge. The growing use of cyber operations as a tool of statecraft by China and Russia underscores the importance of international collaboration to mitigate these threats.

India’s Role: A Balancing Act

India is in a precarious position here, navigating this multifaceted relationship with Russia and China as well as forging deeper ties with the western alliance in order to counter the emerging Chinese influence. In the past, India has depended on Russia for defence equipment and supply of energy. However, the emerging strategic partnership between Russia and China has also caused considerable concern to New Delhi.

Russia continues to be India’s key defence partner, with advanced weaponry such as the S-400 missile system playing a crucial role in the Indian military’s preparedness. Even though India remains neutral with regards to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Indian side is keen to preserve this strategic relationship. Nonetheless, New Delhi is acutely aware of the consequences of a Sino-Russian partnership, especially if it weakens Russia’s capacity to act independently in its dealings with India.

The primary concern for India stems from the sour relations it shares with China, marked by border disputes and increasing rivalry in the Indian Ocean region. These worries are magnified by the prospect of a deeper Sino-Russian relationship, which might move the regional equilibrium even more in China’s favour. To offset this, India has been forging closer relations with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through groupings such as the Quad to achieve strategic autonomy while fostering ‘stability in the region.’.

Despite the challenges, there are certain advantages due to India’s geopolitical significance. Its strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region makes it an important partner for both Russia and the West. While Russia looks for India’s support to continue dominating Asia, the western powers regard India as an essential partner for countering China’s influence. Leveraging this position, India aims to balance its relations and navigate the complexities of the China-Russia-West triangle.

Conclusion: A Fragmenting Global Order

The emerging partnership between China and Russia signifies a major shift in the global order, challenging the traditional dominance of the U.S. and its allies. In this capacity, the military, economic, and technology cooperation between the two in international politics threatens to complicate global security and stability. For Western powers, the China-Russia alliance underscores the urgency of strengthening alliances, adapting strategies, and addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by this partnership.

India’s role as a key player in this evolving dynamic highlights the intricacies of modern geopolitics. As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, these new partnerships and alliances will set the trajectory of international relations for years to come. The current global order is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the deepening China-Russia partnership is a force that cannot be ignored.