For decades, the United States’ relationship with Israel was often characterized by near-unquestionable loyalty. From the historic recognition of the Israeli state by President Harry Truman in 1948 to the billions in military aid that have followed since, Israel could count on its most powerful ally to shield it politically, fund it militarily, and defend it diplomatically.
But that era of blind solidarity appears to be waning and a new chapter is being written, one defined not by total support, but by public scrutiny, political polarization, and a generational shift that is fundamentally reshaping how Americans perceive the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Arc of American-Israeli Relations
The US-Israel alliance began in earnest in the late 1940s, not as an inevitable partnership but as the outcome of contentious debate. President Truman’s recognition of Israel, made in defiance of his own Secretary of State George Marshall, was shaped by post-Holocaust sympathy and strategic Cold War calculations. For years, shared democratic values, cultural ties, and a common adversary in Soviet-backed Arab states further cemented the relationship.
But it was the 1967 Six-Day War that fully transformed the alliance into a cornerstone of US Middle East policy. Israel’s dramatic military success repositioned it as a vital strategic partner in the region, an outpost of American influence amid Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism. From that point on, Israel became the single largest recipient of US foreign aid, and American presidents – from Nixon to Obama – tirelessly backed its security while publicly pursuing the elusive dream of Middle East peace.
Popular culture, too, played its part. The 1960 novel Exodus and its Hollywood adaptation mythologized Israel’s founding for Western audiences, reinforcing pro-Israel sentiment among American citizens. The Palestinian story, by contrast, was poorly understood and rarely humanized in mainstream American discourse.
October 7 and the Breaking Point
The attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s devastating military response in Gaza, became an inflection point in this storied relationship. President Joe Biden responded with near-total backing, including $18 billion in military support and full-throated moral support for Israel. And yet, rather than uniting Americans around Israel, the war sparked unprecedented domestic opposition especially from younger voters and progressives, the very backbone of the Democratic Party.
College campuses erupted in protest. Demonstrators across cities labelled Biden “Genocide Joe,” outraged at what they perceived as complicity in mass civilian casualties in Gaza. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump leaned into hardline support for Israel, even suggesting the forced removal of Palestinians from Gaza and threatening to deport foreign students accused of antisemitism – a stance that played well with his base but deepened partisan fault lines.
It’s a culture war now, and Israel sits squarely in the middle of it.
Polls Don’t Lie: America’s Changing Sentiment
Numbers show what and how it has changed – a March 2025 Gallup poll showed only 46% of Americans now sympathize with Israel – the lowest in 25 years – while support for Palestinians has reached an all-time high at 33%. The Pew Research Center found a similar trend: in just three years, unfavourable views of Israel among Republicans rose by 10 percentage points, with the shift most prominent among younger conservatives.
The generational divide is even sharper still. Among Americans under 30, a Pew poll found that more than twice as many sympathized with Palestinians as with Israelis. TikTok and Instagram have exposed this cohort to firsthand visuals of the war’s brutality, prompting them to challenge traditional narratives and question Washington’s role.
The implications are profound. As this generation ages and gains political influence, their disillusionment could begin to reshape actual policy, not just public opinion.
Biden’s Balancing Act
Caught in the crossfire of generational outrage and geopolitical obligation, Biden found himself in a bind unlike any president before him. His administration especially National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has publicly wrestled with the moral and strategic dilemmas: curbing Israeli military excesses while ensuring its security needs. But no balancing act can erase the perception that the Biden White House had prioritized alliance over accountability.
The political cost is already evident. In swing states like Michigan, Arab-American voters boycotted Biden, some even voting for Trump.
What Happens When the Grassroots Turns?
On Capitol Hill, bipartisan support for Israel remains strong, for now but beneath the surface, a shift is undeniable. Organizations like the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv warn of the “danger zone” Israel now faces in US public opinion, driven not only by war fatigue but also by ideological drift. The rise of Israel’s national-religious right under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it harder for American Jews – especially liberals – to relate to the country many once considered a spiritual or ancestral homeland.
Even influential figures like Dennis Ross, a key Clinton-era negotiator, acknowledge the damage Trump-era politics has done to Israel’s perception among Democrats. If Netanyahu is replaced by a centrist government in Israel’s next election (due by October 2025), there may be a chance to reset. But the deeper forces at play – demographics, social media, polarization – won’t disappear overnight.
The Last Bit, A Fraying But Not Broken Bond
To be clear, US military aid to Israel is unlikely to dry up tomorrow. Strategic imperatives, deep-rooted lobbying, and shared security interests still bind the two nations closely. But a critical transformation is underway. The unquestioned support of the past is giving way to conditional, contested backing. What was once bipartisan is now bifurcated by political and generational lines.
In the long arc of US-Israeli relations, we may well be living through a hinge moment. Not a rupture, but a redefinition where values, not just interests, will dictate the depth and durability of the alliance.
And in that redefinition lies the future of America’s role in one of the most enduring and divisive conflicts of our time.
