By: Devarnav Dev Sharma

Mr Devarnav Dev Sharma conducted an interview with Interview of Sofia Salas Monge, Minister Counsellor and Consul General, Embassy of Costa Rica, New Delhi, India on June 16, 2023. The transcript of the interview is given below.

DDS-          How do you see the relationship between India and Costa Rica in the broader   international context of the present times?

SSM-          Both our countries share a harmonious and cordial relationship with each other. Costa Rican Embassy was set up in 2010 with a senior official as Charge d’ Affairs. The first Ambassador of Costa Rica assumed office in 2011 and the present Ambassador is holding office from 2019. It is relatively a small embassy (two diplomats at present: the Ambassador and myself). Our diplomatic work is focused on three main areas: foreign policy, economic diplomacy and International Cooperation. I currently serve as the Minister Counsellor and Consul General. I have witnessed an increasing understanding of Latin America in India in recent years. Despite the fact that Latin America and India are geographically far from each other and there are certain cultural distinctions there is now a greater presence of Indians in Costa Rica people-to-people interaction between our countries.  It is now not rare to see sarees and kurtas in Costa Rica, which was not the case over a decade ago. We also have an active Indian Association (Costa Rica India Association–CRIA) whose founders were CEOs or high-level employees of IT and/or engineering companies. Currently, India does not have an Embassy in Costa Rica, the Indian Embassy in Panama is concurrent to Costa Rica. We hope that in the near future we have an Indian Embassy in San Jose too. The cultural relationship between both the countries is stronger and we see festivals like Holi and Diwali being celebrated. There have been recent diplomatic visits from India like Minister Jaishankar’s visit to Panama during which the 4^th India SICA Ministerial meeting on April 25, 2023 took place.   Costa Rica and India also held the third round of India-Costa Rica Political Consultations Meeting on September 17, 2021. We perceive and welcome the fact that India is focusing more on the countries of Latin America. We see increasing importance of cooperation in the IT sector and automobiles. Some MOUs have also been signed but they are till now mostly dormant. We are geographically a small country so we need to be very strategic and key areas need to be focused on. Our ambassador is an economist and his key area is trade. He participates in various events related to trade and investment to promote Costa Rica; some of these events are organized by different chambers in India.

DDS-          Do you think India’s growing proximity with the United States of America has had any impact in India’s relationship with Latin America in general and Costa Rica in particular?

SSM-          The countries of Latin America are also building closer ties with the USA. The Alliance for Development in Democracy by Costa Rica, Panama and Dominican Republic (founding members) and now including Ecuador since July 2022, aims to strengthen trade and investments from United States, Europe and Asia. Jaishankar’s visit to Mexico to celebrate 200 years of their independence in September 2021 marks India’s messaging that Latin America is important. So yes, it could be that India’s shift in orientation to grow closer to USA may be impacting its Latin American orientation as well. Moreover, many Indian IT professionals and companies establish themselves in Costa Rica to serve their US clients. Costa Rica thus can be seen as a gateway to best cater the USA market for Indians as well.

DDS-          Do you think there are any bottlenecks in the visa approval process especially with reference to work visas for spouses of Indian IT and other professionals working in Costa Rica?

SSM-          This concern has been raised but it is not India specific. For visa-related purposes, Costa Rica divides countries in groups. India is in the third group which requires consular visa. As far as the dependent population or the spouses are concerned, approval process is rather simple. The backlog of applications combined with the processing time in India to obtain certain requisites demanded by Costa Rican regulations, such as the Police clearance certificate, which needs to be duly apostilled and translated into Spanish, may represent some delay in the process of certain applicants. Police clearance certificates take a while to be processed in India and we need to be absolutely sure about the authenticity of the documents. The police clearance certificate is not a specific requirement for India.

DDS-          Can you give us a brief account of the areas of cooperation between India and Costa Rica?

SSM-          Trade is an area with potential. India and Costa Rica trade in teak and pharmaceutical devices. Costa Rica also produces great quality coffee. I recently visited the North Eastern states of India and saw great potential for collaboration in agro industries and sustainable crops. The region is also focussing on eco-tourism similar to Costa Rica and both regions can collaborate on that by exchanging technical cooperation and best practices. Transitioning to green and clean public transportation is a challenge in Costa Rica. The previous administration was working on a project to put into action an intercity electric train that advanced to the final stages but was not implemented. With the change of administration, the priority of green transportation continues, but the specific project of the former administration will not be pursued. India can help with its technical know-how in this field. On other topics, Costa Rica can benefit greatly from India’s expertise in “buffalo husbandry” which can become an income source for people in Costa Rica. On other fronts too there has been gradual changes. Student exchanges have increased and now students are coming not just for Yoga but for studying other disciplines as well. A student from Costa Rica recently joined O.P. Jindal Global University to study International Relations. Some students are getting scholarships too but it is a gradual change nonetheless. We have also seen Costa Rica becoming a destination for medical education especially after the Ukraine crisis. Investment incentives are also increasing for Indian companies to invest in Costa Rica. Indian students are also enrolling themselves at the University for Peace for PG programs. In fact, Mihir Kanade, an Indian scholar is heading the International Law Department at the University. He is an author and a professor of International Law, Human Rights and Development at the University. We are also hoping that Costa Rica becomes a favourite tourist destination for Indians. It takes a day to reach Costa Rica from India.  Recently, some South Indian movie actors have visited Costa Rica which we hope is something that will contribute to further promote Costa Rica as a tourist destination. Costa Rica is also known for alternative therapies and India could benefit from it. It has also seen the rise of the presence of digital nomads.

DDS-          India currently has a young population and could be a potential beneficiary of demographic dividend but it requires great investment in education and skill building. How do you think India can gain such insights from countries like Costa Rica?

SSM-          Every country has challenges and India being a huge country definitely has its own set of challenges. Costa Rica has always provided free education but now we feel the need for high quality education. We observed that during the pandemic, difference in digital accessibility was widespread especially between urban and rural areas and public and private institutions. So, both the countries need to work on that. As far as India is concerned, political willingness, both at the central and state level, is very important to ensure that appropriate infrastructure, resources and skilled teachers are available at all levels. We need to train teachers and make teaching a well-paying job. Schools also have to be accessible and to have an adequate curriculum; learning starts at a very young age. Imparting useful skills is very important for building successful careers. HCL for instance now has a “tech education” wing to respond to the recruitment and skilling needs of companies. Thus yes, investment in teaching and infrastructure is paramount.

DDS-          Would you like to give general comments for the readers of this interview before we conclude?

SSM-          Sure, as diplomats we are the representatives of our countries and public servants. It is a responsibility to carry your country’s name. Costa Rica is a beautiful peace-loving country. We demilitarised in 1948 itself at the end of a civil war. Our constitution does not have provision for a permanent military. We follow the rule of law and solve our issues through international courts such as the International Court of Justice. We firmly believe that it is a much better investment to dedicate resources into health and education rather than for maintaining armies.  A Japanese philanthropist that once visited the UPEACE in Costa Rica said the following phrase which fills us with great pride: “blessed is the Costa Rican Mother who knows at the time of birth that her son will never be a soldier”.

DDS-          Thank you so much for your valuable insights and time!

SSM-          You are welcome!

About the Author

Devarnav Dev Sharma is a recent Postgraduate in Politics with specialisation in International Studies from School of International Studies (SIS), JNU. He has been a MAPS Young Professional Fellow, a participant of the prestigious Asian Undergraduate Summit as part of the University Scholars Program and is currently training school students in developing critical thinking and debating skills in various formats. He tweets at @devarnav_dev.

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By: Barsha Hazarika, Research Analyst, GSDN

President Joe Biden famously said, “The United States has no closer friend, partner, or ally than Canada.  Over the past 150 years, our two countries have built one of the closest and most extensive relationships.”

The importance of Canada to the US is manifold; they share not only the same values like democracy, justice, freedom, similar lifestyles, history, and aspirations but also are linked by geography and security, and the two countries stand as a modern example of interdependence and cooperation.

The US and Canada are far more integrated than most people think. Two nations occupying the bulk of North America and share the world’s longest undefended border, each reliant on the other for trade, continental security, and prosperity. In other words, both share a longstanding commitment to cooperation in the Western Hemisphere in support of democracy, the rule of law, human rights, economic growth and opportunity, free trade, humanitarian assistance, and sustainable development. They also work closely in counternarcotics, conflict resolution, defense cooperation, and institutional reform.

In still other ways, the Americans consider the Canadians closer to them than any other people in the world. Both Americans and Canadians are very much similar in character. The Anglo-Canadians speak the same language. Canadian English is American English. The people of Canada are descended from much the same stock—half from the British Isles and half from continental Europe. Canadians and Americans have matured together in the same environment. On either side along the boundary, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the pattern of daily life is much the same.

Strategically, the size of Canada and a stable and friendly neighbour rather than a hostile power is an asset to the US. This Canadian Shield is situated to the north above the Great Lake; it is the world’s largest area of Precambrian rock, much of which forms a barrier to human settlement.

Economically, the countries are one another’s most prominent investors, customers, and suppliers. Canada, as their largest trading partner, nearly $2.6 billion in goods and services crosses their shared border every day – an almost 20 percent increase in 2022 over the previous year.

Canada has also moved up to be the leading foreign provider of critical petroleum products to the US; it ships roughly 2.5 million barrels a day (out of the total consumed of 19.4 million barrels daily) and is an essential source of electrical power, uranium, metals, minerals, natural gas, and automobiles. In return, Canadians buy more U.S. products than does the entire EU.

Many assume that China or Japan is the leading trading partner of the US. According to reports, the US exports almost three times more to Canada than Japan and 12 times more to Canada than China.

U.S. corporations own roughly 12 percent of Canada’s corporate assets, nearly half of its oil industry, and most of its manufacturing. Canadian corporations are the third most prominent investors in the United States, and Canadian foreign direct investment levels are also third in the U.S. At the same time, the U.S. is the largest investor in Canada, according to 2022 data.

The policy opinion politiques states that Trade, direct investment, and tourism linkages between the US and Canada roughly account for over 3 million US jobs.

According to data, with a population of 38 million, Canadians spend more than 60 percent of their disposable income on U.S. consumer goods. In 2020, Canada ranked as the top export market for 32 of 50 states thanks to numerous commonalities, like geographic proximity, cultural affinity, brand recognition, and ease of doing business.

Their partnership is also sustained by string trade frameworks that lower entry barriers. The Agreement between the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA) supports excellent regulatory practices and North American competitiveness. The Roadmap for a Renewed US-Canada Partnership, released in February 2021, establishes a framework for enhanced cooperation between the two countries in critical sectors, including economic growth, pandemic recovery, combating climate change, and tackling global concerns.

Canada is also important to the US for security and defense partnership,just as the United States is to Canada. For the United States, Canada is an indispensable ally in the defence of North America. Since President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Mackenzie King signed the Ogdensburg Agreement in 1940, recognizing the indivisible nature of continental security and pledged mutual assistance in the event of war, Canada-US defense cooperation has endured more than five decades of changing challenges.

The strength of this mutual commitment is illustrated by the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), the centerpiece of the US-Canada military relationship. US and Canadian forces jointly conduct aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning to defend North America.

This relationship is also significant as both countries work together in several key security partnerships, including the Five Eyes (an alliance of intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and NATO. Canada’s intelligence capabilities are crucial to the United States regarding the former’s ability to contribute to common alliances and partnerships because violent extremists based in Canada can threaten the United States. 

This north-south migrationhas been constant throughout history. Millions of Americans have Canadian roots, including well-known figures like Ellen DeGeneres, Alec Baldwin, Vince Vaughn, Madonna, Angelina Jolie, Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, Jack Kerouac, Walt Disney, Walter Chrysler and Thomas Edison.

The population flow has likewise shifted northward. More than one million Americans live in Canada, and their children, even if born there, are eligible for US citizenship. This intermingling of population between Canada and the United States has been much more significant and has been going on much longer than most realize. It began even before the American Revolution. As a result of this ebb and flow, about 1.5 of the 11.5 million people living in Canada are of United States origin, and there are about 5 million Americans of Canadian ancestry.

Thus, people have moved freely across the Canadian-American border from generation to generation, from the Atlantic to the Pacific. There has been nothing like it anywhere else, and it has produced an international intimacy.

Tackling the climate crisis is a crucial issue for the United States. And it sees Canada as a reliable partner – their largest energy trading partner- as both are committed to taking decisive action. The US is committed to growing the clean energy economy by lifting legislation like the US Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the clean energy transition and make North America a clean energy powerhouse. They have signed agreements like the US–Canada Air Quality Agreement (AQA) in 1991. The agreement includes commitments by both countries to address acid rain and ground-level ozone. Under the agreement, the United States and Canada also cooperate on science and research topics such as wildfires, ammonia, and methane as an ozone precursor.

Problems of the Canadian-American relationship

Though generally close, relations between the US and Canada have changed over the past three decades. The two North American countries cooperate widely in international security and political issues bilaterally and through numerous international organizations. Canada’s defense and foreign policies are usually in harmony with the United States. Areas of contention are relatively few but sometimes sharp, as in policy toward Iraq.

Canadians are far more concerned by what they perceive to be American paranoia. Clearly, Canadians cannot afford to ignore the American state of mind. The Canadian economy, which is tightly linked to the US economy, is influenced by decisions made in Washington, and many Canadians are vulnerable to ideas and emotions of fear emerging from the US.

To sustain a viable relationship with the US, the Canadian government adheres to the notion that Canada should not be a source of uneasiness and concern for the American government and its people. As a result, Ottawa ensures that no anti-US organization exists within Canada. This is the price Canada pays if it wants the Americans to leave the border open for trade and refrain from interfering in Canadian domestic security problems.

In fact, it is debatable whether the damage to Canadian identity is greater than the challenge to sovereignty. To summarise, Canada, with an economy and society inextricably linked to those of the United States, cannot afford to disregard American concerns and must, with prudence and clarity, put measures in place to cope with what Washington regards as threats.

Furthermore, the political focus of the United States is moving from the Northeast to the South and Southwest. With a reduced (if not eliminated) need to depend on Canada to defend US soil from a Russian missile attack over the North Pole, Washington increasingly treats Canada as a nation just like others. It also, and more importantly, indicates that Mexico’s relevance has grown in the eyes of the United States. The signing of NAFTA has hastened this process, the inclination to focus on the South and the United States’ relationship with Mexico.

The numbers suggest a strong reason for this change in emphasis. Mexico’s rapidly growing economy is home to more than 100 million people – over three times the size of Canada’s population and Spanish is quickly becoming the unofficial second language of the United States. The statistics point to a solid basis for this shift in emphasis. The same is true for Mexico and Canada; the United States has become an overwhelmingly significant market, accounting for about 90% of its exports. Mexico’s economic revival will increase competition for companies from Canada exporting to the United States.

By: Puloma Pal

Recently G20 summit was held in Delhi. The two-day summit went well without a glitch. As we know, the memorandum of understanding was signed and the Delhi Declaration was passed without any opposition from the member countries. Apart from this, African Union (AU) was added to G20 as a new member which now makes G20 as G21.

But currently the talk of the town is the economic corridor which was signed by G20 nation members. As per a press conference given to the media who were accompanying President of Turkey to the G20 Summit, Erdoğan clearly expressed why he is unhappy with the project. The Turkey President wants the corridor to pass through Turkey. Currently, this project consists of two corridors -The Eastern Corridor linking India to West Asia and the Middle East and The Northern Corridor linking West Asia and the Middle East with Europe. This project includes countries like India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, EU, France, Italy, Germany and the US. But theTurkish President believes that Turkey it important in terms of locations and production and is also a trade base and hence Turkey should be included in the project.

 One of the line from his interview which is circulating in the media is – “No corridor without Turkey”. This line clearly states how desperate Turkey is to be the part of this Economic corridor project. What could be the possible reason? Why Turkey wants to join this project even when it is already part of Iraq Development Project as well as China’s BRI?

1. The Profit – Project’s main aim is to reduce the cost of transport/shipping by 40% and save money as well as fuel. This project will not only save money and fuel but also time. Let’s take an example, if a ship takes 20 days, then after the project this time would reduce to 10 to 10 days (approx.). It is quite obvious that this project will give a direct access to Asian countries to trade with the European Union directly. Currently, the trade between Asia and EU is done through Suez Canal. This trade is about US$ 2 trillion annually.

If the corridor is completed successfully then we can say that there will be an alternative for trade. If trade begans, profit would also come in. Those countries who have partnership in this project would obviously gain a lot of profit. Hence, Turkey is too interested in the partnership and the profit. Apart from the less time to shipping goods, this corridor will have set ups of Hydrogen pipelines, high speed internet cables and electricity cables. So, this project comes with lots of investment which would bring in a lot of profit.

• China’s BRI – As we know, China’s BRI project is a huge project. It began in year 2013 and as of August 2023, 215 cooperation documents have been signed with 155 countries and 32 international organizations. This project is taking a long time. Plus, this project has a huge investment from its partner countries. China has a lot of investment across the globe. For example The China Pakistan Economic Corridor where the Chinese Govt has invested around US$ 60 billion, totally spent by China in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Government of China has continued to invest on various projecst and always been criticised on its intentions.

It is obvious that criticisms are a result of the relations between China and countries such as Cambodia, Djibouti, Mongolia and Pakistan. There are some circles that claim these countries will be drowning in Chinese debt. Hence, we can say that Turkey is looking for an alternative. The new Spice route is the best alternative for Turkey.

• An Alternative – As mentioned before, Turkey is looking for an alternative. China’s BRI is taking a long time plus Turkey doesn’t want to fall under the debt trap of China. By joining hands with India, it will not only strength countries’ security (security; as there are many powerful nations who are part of this New Spice Route). Joining the Project will also help Erdoğan polish is political image. Can we say that Turkey has now a shift in opinion and is willing to abandon China? Well! The answer to this Question can be seen in upcoming future.

The Bottom Line…

The G20 (now G21) under the Presidency of India (Bharat) has seen new changes. Some changes that people didn’t expect were the Delhi Declaration passing without a glitch, US, Russia and China the main center power countries being satisfied with the declaration, Turkey’s dissatisfaction for been left out of the corridor project and a new spice route created which would work as an alternative to China’s BRI project.

At first it was quite strange when USA didn’t protest the declaration. What reason could it be? From various reports we get to know that USA is keen to know about China and wants to dominate the south pacific region. For this USA has joined hands with South Korea which is close to Mainland China as well as Taiwan. Also, USA is not happy about the growing power of China in East and how it is channeling its routes to West Asia. Through the corridor, China’s BRI project can be side lined and India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) along with West Asia, and Europe will get an alternative of Suez Canal.

Apart from this, Turkey is already in an “intensive negotiation”with Iraq Development Road Initiative (IDRI). Iraq which is politically instable and has faced various issues in regard to state institutions as well as security. Though the instability has reduced but still the conflict of the Kurdish demonstrators in Kirkuk has disturbed the stable environment in Iraq.

With diminishing health and difficulty in walking, Erdoğan has many challenges to face during his third term of Presidency. The economic conditions are not well. The economy of Turkey has worsened especially after the massive earthquake that took away lives of many Turkish citizens. The loss is in great numbers. Turkey’s currency Lira has seen a fall after 21 years. This issue is huge as the municipal elections are around the corner and Turkey in financial crisis can make a big news in Turkey. This would further help the opposition to gain more votes. The fall of Lira is been dumped on Erdoğan and his unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates. Erdoğan’s unfavorable policy has driven away many investors.

Apart from this, there are news on how Western countries have put pressure on Turkey to accept Sweden and Finland as NATO member. The question is why Turkey opposes Sweden and Finland? Turkey believes that giving membership will be like giving membership to“terrorists”. The fight is between the Turkish forces and PKK (a Kurdish Marxist separatist movement) since the 1980s. Turkey believes that Sweden and Finland are supporting the PKK, a movement which is been classified terrorist movement not only by Turkey but also by Canada, US, European Union and Australia.

Hence, if Turkey becomes a member, it would help Erdoğan to bring foreign investments which would help the country improve their economy. This would lead to better political image of Erdoğan in his country. This would also help Erdoğan win the municipal elections which are supposed to be conducted next year in 2024.

About the Author

Puloma Pal is pursuing Master in International Relations from Amity University, Noida. She is a prolific writer whose articles are frequently published in leading geopolitical publications. She tweets at @Sassy_Saira. The views expressed are personal.

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By: Nandini Khandelwal, Research Analyst, GSDN

Recently, Italy backed out of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also referred to as BRIXIT, i.e., Exit from BRI before the upcoming renewal of the agreement in March 2024. This is significant as Italy was the only G-7 country to be a part of it beginning in 2019, the largest-ever global infrastructure undertaking. Italy saw an opportunity to leverage its position, having suffered three recessions in a decade and growing scepticism towards the European Union. It was looking forward to attracting investments and increasing exports to the PRC’s huge market.

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto remarked, “The choice to join the BRI/Silk Road was an improvised and wicked act, made by the Government of Giuseppe Conte which led to double negative result”.

Italy played a major role in the significance of the BRI as it refreshed the golden memory of China’s old Silk Road which connected Central Asia, West Asia and Europe. In addition, Italy is home to the largest population of the PRC in Europe, and deep shared trade links but most importantly, the PRC saw it as a gateway to influence Europe in its far-sighted future. However, it seems like this remains a dream since Italy has dumped the Dragon which has immense implications for the geo-politics.

Background

BRI is an infrastructural project of the PRC aspiring to connect to the world. It began with the 2013 Xi Jinping’s speech in Kazakhstan where he announced a new trade route based on the ancient Silk Road.
It is a colossal project that consists of at least 60% of the world’s population at present. As of August 2023, the number of countries that have joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China (excluding Italy) is 148 including itself, spread across Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, West Asia and North Africa (WANA) and South-East Asia.

It is referred to as an amorphous project due to its secrecy regarding the objective. For instance, it could mean building infrastructures for the members or upgrading them; providing loans and investment in the developing countries in need and providing overland routes. Interestingly, the term “road” in the project means the maritime Silk Road all across the world through building ports for the member countries, like Djibouti, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan etc.

Geopolitical analysts contend that the PRC strategically placed these ports as military bases in particular nations, close to the choke points, to reinforce its power in the region, popularly known as the “String of Pearls theory,” which conspired around India in order to eventually become a global hegemon. In addition to creating economic reliance on the nations, it also asserts geopolitical power to move around as it sees fit.

It is dubious because, unlike institutions located in the West like the IMF or World Bank, which offer economic assistance to nations subject to certain criteria, BRI does not impose any such requirements, giving the impression that it is a Ponzi scheme. Recent advances have produced these outcomes. For instance, after promising to assist Sri Lanka with its economic difficulties, China ended up leasing the country’s port of Hambantota from Sri Lanka for a period of 99 years. In the case of Djibouti, China actively contributed to the construction of its ports, railways, highways, and related infrastructure. In addition, China took over the country’s logistics support base on a ten-year lease in January 2016 and, interestingly, by mid-2017, had completely transformed the location into a base of operations for itself. This naturally draws attention to China’s “debt trap” tactic, which keeps control of these defenceless nations.

Xi Jinping’s paradox of cooperation through his wolf-warrior approach

Used as a buzzword word for Chinese diplomacy post the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic, Xi Jinping has been using it as a support base due to its popularity domestically as well as asserting its power aggressively at the international level, reflecting his call for the “fighting spirit”.

Chinese current diplomacy is a result of an evolution, beginning with Zhou Enlai, the founder, who stated “ability to hide its fist when needed behind velvet gloves”.

Deng Xiaoping in the early 1990s called for keeping a low profile, stating his popular statement “hiding brightness, biding our time”

Jiang Zemin (1993-2003), called for being more active. It was in his era that the PRC began asserting its power over the Mischief Reef (South China Sea) in the year 1995 while focussing on economic growth.

Hu Jintao’s (2003-13) era was of rapid economic growth for the PRC, portraying itself as a responsible state. However, the territorial disputes with Taiwan and in the South China Sea persisted. Notwithstanding, it began managing its relationship with the major economies of the world rather than forging foreign policy as a major power.

It only happened since Xi Jinping came to power and pushed for diplomacy that favoured the PRC’s major power status across the globe. However, there is a paradox in his style of diplomacy. While Chinese policy urges for “opposing sides or another cold war”, its unilateral and baseless assertion of power is creating a situation, compelling the countries to form alliances to counter it. For instance, the recent update in its map shows the 10-dash line in the South China Sea region, in addition to the 9-dashed line, ruled as having no legal basis by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 1947 and by the United Nations. The PRC’s cartographic aggression, one of the warfare tactics used by China besides psychological and controlled public opinion has been going on since then.

The liberal and egalitarian views of his diplomacy often contradict his realist actions. His conception of a shared future for all mankind was characterized by win-win cooperation in his UN speech of 2015 where he re-instated the idea of a “community of common destiny” as a continuation of his predecessor Hu Jintao. He furthered the idea by portraying the PRC as a responsible state, which thinks of other states’ interests rather than exclusively its own. He institutionalized this idea through practical forms of the BRI and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), envisioning the country to reach great rejuvenation by becoming a global leader.

Every nation considers its own national interests, but when those interests are pursued or controlled through unfair and illegal tactics, problems arise. For instance, the BRI is beneficial as long as it promotes increased interconnectedness through globalisation and serves as a tool for economic assistance and development. When it forces them into a geopolitical reliance and debt-trapping country, it turns into a wolf warrior policy. Coercive tactics like this are incompatible with liberal and egalitarian ideals. The hostile language used in the new major-country diplomacy is likely to vary across subject areas and to get worse when it comes to “core national interests.”

Path for India

The reality check that the members are getting from signing up with the PRC’s BRI provides India with an opportunity to make the world believe in its balanced leadership. The biggest example this year is the G-20 summit whose presidency is with India. The recent summit held in India proved its moto of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (One Earth, One Family, One Future) being successful in getting the member-states to consensus, amid the polarizing issue of  Russia-Ukraine.

In fact, the summit’s ground-breaking announcement is a “new economic corridor connectivity” connecting Europe, West Asia, and India via ship-to-rail transit was made among participants, including the US, despite it having no part in the transit route. It is important to be specific because the PRC’s BRI model, which just took a hit from Italy, could be substituted by this corridor.

In addition, the PRC’s decision to skip the ASEAN and G-20 summits immediately following its aggressive cartography is indicative of a childish attitude. According to the speculation, it’s because of domestic pressures that Xi is experiencing as a result of the current economic slump in the nation. But the reality reveals the PRC’s “hegemonic, high-handed” mentality, which prevents it from being able to witness someone else assuming the reins, forcing it to watch from the sidelines.

By: Kashif Anwar, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

In the global geopolitics, the formation of alliance, partnership, blocks and groups has allowed nations to secure their common interest and ensure peace and stability in the directed or concern region. Among all such developments the formation of a trilateral group between Israel, Cyprus and Greece which later included the US has allowed these three founding members to enhance and develop their relationship into a strategic partnership. With change in technology, increase in conflict worldwide and the growing need for energy has become a hot topic for any country has only impacted the global order. The 3+1 trilateral group has been viewed as one such group who is working to address such queries in the Mediterranean region. As relationship between Israel, Greece and Cyprus has been part of their holistic strategy of their foreign policy which has allowed them to cooperate on various agenda with like-minded countries. In this regard, invitation to India to attend the 10^th Trilateral Summit in 2024 reflects the strength, relevance and prospect of the group who is looking for a country like India to join them in their journey to ensure peace, stability and prospect in Eastern Mediterranean.

What is the 3+1 Alliance

On January 28, 2016, Greece, Cyprus and Israel came together to initiate the trilateral summit directed to promote peace, stability and security in the Eastern Mediterranean. The group aimed to achieve this through substantive and practical strengthening of joint ventures in all the fields of cooperation which isn’t directed against any country. As they agreed to cooperate in the field of energy, tourism, research and technology, environment, water management, terrorism and migration. Formulation of trilateral cooperation was a historic event bringing the blessings of progress not only to the citizens of three democracies but also to the wider region by helping stability, security, prosperity and peace.

The group improved relationship between Israel, Cyprus and Greece transforming into a strategic partnership based on a shared common vision for a thriving Eastern Mediterranean.

The prospect of substantial hydrocarbon resources waiting to be tapped beneath the Eastern Mediterranean waters have sparked major global interest. Energy being common denominator, it will become a main component of the geostrategic struggle in the East Mediterranean and its surroundings. As the resources requires careful management to ensure peace, stability, security and prosperity in the region to avoid confrontation and friction disturbing trade in the region which could impact global trade. Thus, the inclusion of the US expanded the group – formed 3+1 – which expanded the scope and role of the trilateral cooperation in the region.

Invitation to India join the alliance and its geopolitical implications

With India’s bilateral relationship with the US and Israel have improved in recent years which brought them together as reflected from the I2U2. The invitation to India to join the 3+1 group is viewed as of great strategic relevance for the group and India. India’s inclusion and Turkey’s role, position and aim towards the Eastern Mediterranean cannot be viewed as separate events. With the Eastern Mediterranean region becoming a hotbed of geopolitical activity, and India making inroads has caused contentment and concern in the region. As the region is strategically important, rich in natural gas, and riddled with the maritime territorial disputes. The news that India is planning to join the group has directly challenged Turkey in its backyard, and is bound to ruffle some feathers in Ankara.

Invitation to India to attend the group and hopefully join the 3+1 group next year during the 10^th Trilateral Summit highlights the group’s continued intention to invite like-minded countries to strengthened its aim and objectives. Such decision was taken during the 9^th Trilateral Summit which was held in Nicosia, Cyprus to discuss regional energy cooperation and focus on exports to Europe, especially natural gas and renewables. The Group views such partnership will strengthen their resolute efforts intend for Eastern Mediterranean as common interests will increase the prospect of the group, compelling other countries to cooperate or even join such a group in the near future.

Such partnership will ensure peace, stability and security in the Eastern Mediterranean region, the group is looking for a way to ensure the growing need for the energy diversification, interconnectivity and a reliable energy corridor from the region basin to Europe is secured. In the recent years, the need for energy has increased and thus the need to ensure countries abide by and respect the international laws like the United Nation Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) has become the need of the hour. In the last 15 years, major gas discoveries have been made in Eastern Mediterranean Sea, particularly off the coasts of Israel (Tamar Field) and Egypt, and more such gas exploration is taking place in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone.

As the Eastern Mediterranean has been riddled with maritime territorial disputes for years, caused by Turkey, who claims EEZ beyond its water assigned under the UNCLOS which has caused dispute with Greece and Cyprus. Further, with Europe diversifying its source of energy demands caused by the Russa-Ukraine conflict, Greece could play the role of a gateway. With India diversifying its source of energy demands, considering the prospect of India joining the group and its bilateral relationship with Greece will allow the flow of natural gas both ways to Europe and India.

With Abraham Accord being a success and another such accord is being made or on the table between Israel and Saudi Arabia, all such developments succees in happening will transit gas from Greece to India through Israel and the Arabian Peninsula providing a safe and stable trade route. Such aspects were visible during India’s PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Greece which was strategically planned to ensure India’s engagement in gas exploration and transportation in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Thus, India joining the 3+1 group in near future will ensure the above mentioned aspects giving India ample window of opportunities to thwart Turkey’s anti-India stance and improve its bilateral ties with other Mediterranean nations. Such aspect will keep Turkey caution while ensuring the need and supply of India’s energy demand is secured to propel its economic growth improving India’s global stature and strengthening its foreign policy.

Conclusion

Development of the 3+1 group was viewed as a great achievement which was inconceivable 20 years ago as Israel’s Ambassador to Cyprus Oren Anolik stated, as it speaks volumes of the success it has achieved since its inception. As it is envisioned to enhance the regional cooperation through the creation of various linkages at different levels, it allows them to extend invitation to India to join the group which will be a win-win situation for group’s members. On the other hand, over the years has allowed them to enhance multilateral engagement and defence cooperation with the US, like it bolsters US support for Greece military modernisation. The recent 9^th Trilateral Conference, 2023, happened at the time when they’re constructing an ‘Energy Highway’  which will connect national electricity grid of all three nations. India becoming a partner of the group in near future will allow Israel, Cyprus, Greece and India to engage in the defence cooperation and supply chain too. As it will further pushed, strengthened and promote India’s Make in India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative, something India’s foreign and defence policy are working tirelessly and thus strategic cooperation with the like-minded nations is highly required today.

By: Harshit Tokas, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

For over a decade, China has been actively courting developing nations, offering them an alternative to Western influence. China’s remarkable rise from poverty and its ambitious global development initiatives have been a source of inspiration for many countries in the Global South. However, a new player is emerging in this arena – India. India is now presenting itself as a distinct leader for developing nations, challenging China’s dominance and offering a different approach to global leadership. This article explores India’s growing influence and its potential to lead the Global South.

India’s Leadership Ambitions

India’s aspirations for influence are obvious in its role as G20 President. India has done its best to be the voice of the Global South throughout its presidency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized the significance of dialogue with other nations in the Global South in order to effectively tackle their problems. India’s voice is concerning that the greater part of the Global South is missing from representation at the G20 table. To encourage equitable growth, India invited the African Union (AU), comprising all fifty-five African nations, to join the G20 as an official member, identical to the European Union (EU). This happened during the summit, especially with the backing of USA President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This initiative is a concrete step towards making the G20 more reflective of the world and a place where poorer countries could express their issues effectively.

Recently, at the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa, PM Modi said that the Global South is not just a diplomatic term but represents the shared history of these countries against colonialism and apartheid based on which modern relations are being reshaped.

India as the Voice of the Global South

India’s emergence as the leader of the Global South requires active engagement with regional politics within developing nations. India recognizes the diversity within the Global South and tailors its policies to different regions and groups. It aims to bridge the North-South divide by focusing on practical outcomes rather than ideological battles, aligning with changing global dynamics.

Challenges Faced by the Global South

Despite progress, the Global South faces numerous challenges. Developed countries in the Global North have been reluctant to fund green energy initiatives, leaving less-developed nations to bear the consequences of climate change. Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, impact least-developed countries’ food, energy, and financial stability. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about its true intent and benefits. The dominance of the United States in global affairs and historical inequalities persist, hindering global convergence. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing divides, leading Global South countries to face unique challenges.

India as China’s replacement

China, long seen as a champion of the Global South, now faces criticism for its actions, notably through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its alleged “debt trap” policies. Many nations in Asia and Africa have experienced the repercussions of these actions, with assets like Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, Mombasa port in Kenya, and areas in Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan seemingly lost. This has tarnished China’s global image. In contrast, India has steadfastly championed the cause of the Global South, positioning itself as a reliable advocate.

India’s commitment to the Global South is unwavering, even as it faces its own domestic challenges. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar aptly compared the Global South to a family unit, with India assuming a central role within it. India’s recent success with the Chandrayaan mission is a testament to this familial spirit, earning it admiration and pride not only within its borders but also among fellow Global South nations.

India’s soft power stands as one of its most significant assets on the global stage. Its vibrant culture, world-renowned art, cinema, and rich cuisine have transcended borders, fostering connections and goodwill around the world. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and China’s assertive foreign policy, the world’s interest in manufacturing within India has surged. India now stands at the precipice of positioning itself as the world’s next global manufacturing hub, leveraging its extensive capacity, skilled workforce, low production costs, and scalability.

India’s attractiveness as a destination for foreign investments is undeniable. A recent report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) underlines India’s appeal, with the country attracting substantial foreign direct investments (FDIs) totaling $83.6 billion in the 2021-22 fiscal year. India offers a lucrative market, cost-effective production capabilities, and a business environment that rivals that of the United States and China.

India’s leadership extends to critical sectors, notably renewable energy. The country is on the brink of becoming the world’s largest solar energy producer, underlining its commitment to sustainable development. In addition, India has prioritized green transportation and mobility. To reduce its dependence on China, India’s government has taken a decisive step by approving a $10 billion package aimed at boosting its semiconductor industry.

India’s leadership in the Global South is guided by a vision of a more equitable and just world order. Its priorities for the future include:

1. Reforming Global Governance: India seeks a more representative and inclusive global governance structure. This includes reforming the UNSC to reflect contemporary geopolitical realities and giving a stronger voice to developing nations.
2. Sustainable Development: India is committed to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and promoting sustainable development practices in partnership with other developing countries.
3. Peace and Security: India advocates for peaceful resolution of conflicts and regional stability. It plays a constructive role in peacekeeping missions and conflict resolution efforts.
4. Economic Cooperation: India continues to promote South-South cooperation, sharing its developmental experiences and expertise with other countries in areas such as healthcare, agriculture, and technology.
5. Climate Action: India remains dedicated to its climate commitments and actively participates in international climate negotiations. It continues to invest in renewable energy and sustainable practices

Challenges to India

India’s aspiration to lead the Global South comes with a set of complex challenges. First and foremost is the economic diversity among Global South nations. While India’s economic prowess is significant, it must find ways to address the varying levels of economic development and resources among member nations without causing feelings of marginalization. Additionally, India’s geopolitical landscape is fraught with complexities, as it shares borders and diplomatic relationships with countries that may have conflicting interests or geopolitical tensions. Striking a balance between regional priorities and global leadership can be a delicate task.

Resource constraints pose another challenge. India has its own domestic issues, such as poverty, healthcare, and infrastructure development, that demand significant attention and resources. Managing these domestic priorities alongside global leadership responsibilities requires careful planning and resource allocation. Moreover, climate change is a pressing concern for Global South nations, including India itself. As a leader, India must advocate for climate action while addressing its own environmental challenges.

Maintaining a balanced foreign policy is crucial. India must align with the interests of Global South nations while avoiding conflicts with powerful countries in the Global North, such as the United States and the European Union. Furthermore, representation in international organizations remains an issue for Global South nations, and India must work towards reforming these institutions to ensure fair representation.

China’s assertive global presence and economic influence present a significant challenge. India must differentiate itself and offer a compelling alternative to China’s dominance. The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the need for global cooperation in healthcare. India must collaborate with other Global South nations to strengthen healthcare systems and ensure access to vaccines and medical resources during crises.

Infrastructure development in many Global South countries is lacking, and India’s leadership may involve supporting resource-intensive infrastructure projects in these nations. Additionally, the Global South’s diversity in terms of culture, religion, and language is vast. India must navigate this diversity effectively to build strong relationships and promote unity among member nations.

Conclusion

The global South is dealing with difficulties such as energy and food shortages, as well as the worldwide economic impact of the recession. Elucidating India’s approach to the Global South, Prime Minister Modi in his address to the opening session of Voice of Global South Summit 2023 said, “India has always shared its developmental experience with our brothers of the Global South…People of Global South should no longer be excluded from the fruits of development. Together we must attempt to redesign global political and financial governance. This can remove inequities, enlarge opportunities, support growth and spread progress and prosperity.”

In this scenario, India may provide the Global South with the required leadership and a new narrative for worldwide geopolitics. This might undoubtedly give a fresh boost to the present global order.

By: Darshan Gajjar, Research Analyst, GSDN

On September 07, 2023 two days prior to the historic G20 summit in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the 20th ASEAN-India Summit and the 18th East Asia Summit, which highlights the importance of ASEAN countries in India’s foreign policy matrix.

Attending the ASEAN summit just before the important G20 summit reaffirms India’s commitment to strengthen a comprehensive strategic partnership with ASEAN in line with the principle of ASEAN centrality. Let us look into why ASEAN matters to India and how, in the last three decades, the relationship between ASEAN and India has evolved.

Genesis of ASEAN

To understand why ASEAN matters to India, we first have to look into the conditions under which ASEAN came into being along with the fundamental principles of the organisation.

Amid the geopolitical rivalries and block politics of the Cold War, August 08, 1967 the leaders of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand came together and signed what is today famously known as the ASEAN Declaration, thus giving birth to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Subsequently, in the next few decades, especially after the end of the Cold War, other countries from the region, such as Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Lao PDR (1997), Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (1999), have joined the association, further advancing integration in the region.

The fundamental principles on which ASEAN functions, and are highlighted by the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976, are i) Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another; ii) Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner; iii) Renunciation of the threat or use of force; iv) Effective cooperation among member states, v) Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity of all nations and vi) The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion or coercion.

India and ASEAN: From Look East to Act East

India Southeast Asia in general and ASEAN in particular share a deep cultural and historical ties that are being supplemented by growing economic integration and the convergence of strategic interests.

In 1991, India, with the implementation of LPG (Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation) reforms, opened its economy and, with it, the possibility of higher investments in various sectors. India’s foraging of economic space morphed into the operationalisation of “Look East Policy” by the then PM PV Narasimha Rao government.

The Look East Policy opened new pathways for India to take advantage of new opportunities in the various sectors of trade and investment. Due to its successful implementation, India’s trade with ASEAN has risen from US$2.4 billion in 1990 to US$23 billion in 2005.

Eventually, in November 2014, during the 12th India-ASEAN summit, PM Modi formally launched the “Act East Policy,” advancing goals enunciated in the erstwhile Look East policy, further enhancing relations with ASEAN along with BIMSTEC countries. ASEAN is a central pillar of India’s Act East policy.

As per the latest data, the India-ASEAN trade amount stands at $133 billion, with India having a trade deficit of around $43 billion. As mentioned earlier, from $2.4 billion in 1990 to $133 billion in 2022, economic trade and integration have increased drastically.

However, we have to look at these figures in comparison with China, which is by far one of the biggest trade partners of the ASEAN countries, with $975.3 billion in 2022 itself. There has to be more investment by the Indian private sector in ASEAN countries to solidify the overall supply chain vis-à-vis India.

The ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA), which was signed in 2003 and came into effect in 2010, was further upgraded by adding the services sector, with the signing of the ASEAN-India Trade in Services Agreement, in November 2014, fostering persistent economic integration.

AIFTA eliminates tariffs for 75% of goods traded between India and ASEAN and promotes deeper cooperation in areas such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry; services; mining and energy; science and technology; transport and infrastructure; manufacturing, etc.

Connectivity projects in the region further form one of the key pillars of India-ASEAN cooperation. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway is on the verge of completion, and once finally operationalized,  over 1,400 kilometres of highway will connect the Indian city of Moreh in Manipur to Thailand’s Mae Sot through Myanmar.

Another such project is the Kaladan Multimodal Project, which will enable India’s multimodal transit connectivity with Southeast Asia. Such connectivity projects help India reduce its dependence on crucial sea routes. Although we cannot abolish waterways, these projects will enable India to supplement maritime routes while doing trade with the Southeast Asian region.

Convergence of Strategic Interests

With the changing shift in relations between India and China, especially in post-Galwan times, it becomes extremely important for India to develop defensive and offensive capabilities against the adversary. The exasperating attempts by China to alter the status quo in the South China Sea provide an opportunity for India and ASEAN countries to collaborate to establish rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region.

China claims an exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea around the so-called “nine-dash line” based on historical reasons. The ongoing conflicts in the South China Sea between China and several ASEAN member states are one of the major drivers for China in shaping its relations with ASEAN countries. Just like India and China, ASEAN and China’s economies are intertwined; however, due to China repeatedly violating the sovereignty of ASEAN members, ASEAN countries are looking to diversify and de-risk their economy.

Further, due to its geographical location being located at the strategic flashpoint of the Strait of Malacca, countries like Indonesia become pivotal in India’s maritime strategy.

Various military exercises, one of which was Exercise Samudra Shakti-23, illustrated the strong partnership between India and Indonesia and reaffirmed the commitment of both navies, through cooperative engagement, to promote peace and stability in the region.

Countries of ASEAN also see India as a reliable defence partner who can help them develop deterrent capabilities against potential aggressors in the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines is likely to receive the first delivery of the BrahMos cruise missile by this December, strengthening the country’s deterrence capabilities.

Further, India is likely to sell BrahMos missiles to Vietnam, bolstering defence cooperation between both countries. In the maritime domain, India has also gifted the active warship INS Kirpan to Vietnam, which will help it secure its sovereignty in the region. This becomes evident with Chinese ships often violating international norms by showing unforeseen coercion in the Indo-Pacific.

India also plays a role as a net security provider and first responder in the region through initiatives like SAGAR (Security And Growth for All in the Region), through which we ensure economic growth and security in the region are not affected widely in the face of any unforeseen natural disasters.

Present Visit and Implications

Prime Minister Modi, during his visit to Indonesia at the India-ASEAN Summit, presented a 12-point proposal to strengthen relations between India and ASEAN in areas such as digital transformation, connectivity, trade and economic engagement, calling for building a rules-based post-COVID World Order.

It further called for a collective fight against terrorism, terror financing and cyber-disinformation, in addition to calling for cooperation in disaster management and enhanced cooperation on maritime safety, security and domain awareness.

Reaffirming the principle of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific, the PM highlighted the synergies between India’s Indo-Pacific Ocean’s Initiative (IPOI) and ASEAN’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). He also called for a review of the ASEAN-India FTA in a time-bound manner to rationalise the trade imbalance under the current agreement.

At the East Asia Summit, calling ASEAN the focal point of Quad’s vision, PM Modi emphasised Quad’s aim of ensuring a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. The Prime Minister advocated a cooperative approach to address global challenges, including terrorism, climate change, resilient supply chains, etc. He accentuated India’s steps in the area of climate change through initiatives like OSOWOG, ISA, CDRI, and Mission LiFE.

It is sine qua non for every country in the region to maintain a code of conduct by following UNCLOS, thus securing the respective country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The PM called for compliance with such treaties.

With the shifting balance of power and plausible security dilemmas, the relationship between India and ASEAN becomes very important due to their geographical proximity and, as mentioned earlier, economic interlinkages and convergence of strategic interests.

With India increasing its maritime prowess, the strategic location of ASEAN countries makes them obvious partners in the region. In addition to defence and security, cooperation in the areas of sustainable development, disaster management, and climate change will benefit the entire region as a whole.