Chief of the Army Staff of Indian Army reviewing the Army Day Parade 2025: source Author
As was appropriate the Indian Army’s decision to hold the annual Army Day Parade of 2025 in Pune, Maharashtra which has a strong linkage and legacy with the Indian Army historically, the Army Day 2025 conducted with military precision and professionalism on January 15, 2025 in the Bombay Engineer Group & Centre, Khadki, Pune and organised by the largest command of the Indian Army, the Southern Command. The day long affair comprising the Parade in the morning and Gaurav Gatha in the evening, aptly displayed India’s military might.
At sharp 8 am in the slight wintry morning of January 15, 2025, with the arrival of Major General Anurag Vig, the General Officer Commanding, Pune Sub Area as the Parade Commander, the annual Army Day Parade commenced. Slightly earlier, Brigadier Paramjit Singh Jyoti, VSM, Commandant, Bombay Engineer Group & Centre had taken his place as the Parade Second-in-Command.
As the clock struck 8.40 am and the Sun shining brightly making the day look beautiful, General Upendra Dwivedi, PVSM, AVSM, ADC, the 30th Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), Indian Army arrived and was accorded the General Salute. Thereafter, the COAS reviewed the Parade and, in his address, spelt out the achievements and vision of the Indian Army. The COAS in his address also spoke about the futuristic challenges that the Indian Army is fully geared to combat and thanked the Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy for their continued cooperation. The address was followed by distribution of awards.
The March Past was very impressive with demo-type drill and fantastic word of command. The Equipment & Tableau Display showcased the prowess of the Indian Army and its steely resolve to combat the rapidly changing dimensions of modern warfare that encompasses Multi-Domain Operations.
As the Sun was setting, Gaurav Gatha, a sound and light show encapsulated Indian Army’s rich history and heritage in the Bhagat Pavilion of the BEG & Centre. Preceding the Gaurav Gatha were two short movies on the themes “Indian Army: Forging the Future” and “Regimentation” following by Bhangra, a traditional folk dance performed by Punjab Regiment.
Gaurav Gatha in progress: source Author
Lieutenant General Dhiraj Seth, AVSM, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Southern Command, welcomed all those present for the Gaurav Gatha and assured the nation of the Indian Army’s preparedness to combat any external and internal threats.
Gaurav Gatha was inaugurated by Rajnath Singh, the Defence Minister of India who in his address stressed the need for preparedness of the Indian Army for Multi-Domain Operations and the success of Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India initiatives which have been successful in reforming the Indian defence manufacturing sector.
The superb concept and awesome execution of Gaurav Gatha left everyone spellbound and the non-stop applause of the spectators was a testament of the great narration and phenomenal professionalism of the Indian Army.
The arrangements and execution for both the functions of the Army Day Parade 2025 were world-class and it made every spectator present proud of the Indian Army that is renowned the world over for its professionalism and bravery.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2018 Shangri-La address provided a broad framework for India’s Indo-Pacific vision. The speech asserted India’s geographic definition of the Indo-Pacific as being “from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas,” providing a comprehensive physical boundary for its initiatives. One of the major highlights of India’s Indo-Pacific vision, as was evident from Modi’s speech, was the importance of partnerships and the benefit of collaborations highlighting a shift from “isolation to active engagements.” Thus India showed a clearer interest in deepening engagements with the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Indo-Pacific region, reinstating its agenda for a Free, Open and Inclusive Indo-Pacific.
For these smaller nations or island states, New Delhi perhaps wished to position itself at the forefront and to play a crucial role in stabilizing a hostile and unstable environment laden with security issues through cooperation and ingenious solutions in an era of new great power competition. India is also granting development assistance to the SIDS countries. It was not until China began to shift the security contours in the Indian Ocean that New Delhi started to look toward its neighboring island states and even beyond that. In this article we would try to understand India’s changing focus and its relations with four vital small island states- Seychelles, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka, in the Indo-Pacific.
In 2016 India created a new division within the MEA, called the Indian Ocean Region Division (IOR), which brings together the island nations of Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka for better coordination of initiatives and policies in the Indian Ocean. The division created a noticeable shift in India’s foreign policy approach, acknowledging the importance of the maritime domain in its foreign policy arrangements. The islands in the Indian Ocean are located closer to prime sea-lanes, thereby providing trouble-free access and influencing over important chokepoints and waterways. Securing the maritime neighborhood in western Indian Ocean has gained high importance. Some of these island nations provide immensely critical sea-lanes (trade routes) that connect eastern Africa and the Gulf with Southeast and East Asia and beyond. Preceding the creation of the IOR Division, Maldives and Sri Lanka were part of the South Asia neighborhood while Mauritius and Seychelles were under the Africa Division. Thus, the IOR Division is a necessary and indispensable effort to view the island states through a maritime prism as opposed to a continental South Asian one.
India and Seychelles signed several MOUs/Agreements including: Renewable Energy Cooperation, MOU for Cooperation in the field of Hydrography, Bilateral Air Services Agreement, MOU on cyber security (2018); MoU on Small Development Projects, MOU between the Foreign Service Institute India and the Department of Foreign Affairs of Seychelles; Cultural Exchange Programme for the years 2018-2022, to name a few.
Maldives occupies an important spot under India’s “Neighbourhood First” Foreign Policy, which aims to bring stability and prosperity in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Also, both Maldives and India are key players in maintaining safety and security of the IOR, thus contributing to India-led Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision. Despite all the controversies which arose between the two states a few months back, Maldives has accepted the fact that India is an indispensable partner that they can’t lose.
With diplomatic relations dating as far back as 1948, India and Mauritius have been involved in several high-level political engagements with the two countries’ leadership based on mutual respect and trust. Since 2005, India has been among the largest trading partners of Mauritius. Apart from providing grants, investing in several projects and also giving aid from time to time, India has also signed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA) with Mauritius in 2021(Mauritius being the only African country to have such an agreement with India). There are several Indian Public Sector Undertakings in Mauritian land like Bank of Baroda, Life Insurance Corporation to name a few. The key reason for the special ties between both the countries is the fact that Indian origin people comprise nearly 70% of the island’s population of 1.2 million.
Despite the existence of two maritime agreements of 1974 and 1976 there are certain irritants between India and Sri Lanka. The major issue is the current status of Katchchativu, a small barren island in the Palk Bay area. Through the 1974 agreement, India agreed to Sri Lanka’s sovereignty over Katchchativu but with some safeguards to its Indian fishermen through Article 5. But the article was vague enough for the Sri Lankan government to argue that the agreement did not give any fishing rights, but only the rights to dry their fishing nets, to rest, and to the right of pilgrims to visit the island for religious purposes. After the civil war in Sri Lanka in 1983, the Indian fishermen found it difficult to operate their fishing activities. The Sri Lankan Navy became unfriendly to Indian fishermen owing to their inability to distinguish between genuine fishing vessels and boats used for smuggling goods for Sri Lankan Tamil militants. Consequently, indiscriminate firing and killing of Indian fishermen became common. Despite various uproars, the humanitarian aspect of the problem was overlooked by both countries. Various options like issuing identity cards to Indian fishermen and letting the islet, in perpetuity, to India have been explored, but not converted into action.
The maritime domain is significantly new in India’s strategic thinking and driven by the leadership at the top. It is no surprise that despite creating the IOR Division in the MEA, New Delhi failed to view the region as a whole. While India placed Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka under the IOR umbrella, it left out the western islands of Comoros and Madagascar, the only two other islands in the Indian Ocean, until December 2019, which reflects India’s tendency to be reactive in its approach rather than to have a coherent, vision-oriented framework. This, of course, continues to change and develop within New Delhi’s foreign policy discussions.
While both Maldives and Sri Lanka now have a much warmer relationship with India, the political shift in Malé and Colombo was a loud wake-up call for India. New Delhi found itself in need of a better relationship with its island neighbors, as well as challenged to offer better alternatives to Beijing-led initiatives. As India examined its options in the wake of a dramatically altered neighborhood led by an increasing Chinese presence, the potential of maritime partnerships became clear in India’s choices. By 2018 the Indo-Pacific had provided excellent opportunities for New Delhi to re-emerge as a key security player aimed at securing its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean. At this point the government finally took steps to provide a vision statement for the Indo-Pacific (as presented in Modi’s keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018). As India announced its Indo-Pacific vision, partnerships became the central pillar of New Delhi’s strategy in realizing this vision.
On January 01, 2024, the BRICS, in line with Johannesburg Declaration of the 15th Summit, opened its doors to embrace 5 new countries – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The expanded body rechristened as BRICS+ carries massive politico-economic weight accounting for 46% of global population and 35.6% of global GDP at Purchasing Power Parity. The expansion shows the group’s attractiveness for emerging countries while providing a fresh, fertile pitch for India to stage its south-south cooperation diplomacy.
India’s diplomatic prowess shone in full swing in February 2024 with the release of EIGHT Indian Navy veterans sentenced to death / life imprisonment/ other terms by Qatari agencies on charges of espionage. MEA leveraging its legal assistance and varied diplomatic channels enabled the commutation of their sentences and their safe repatriation home. The episode reflects India’s robust amplitude in Gulf!
It’s been a SUPERNAL year for India in the sporting universe as well. The nation celebrated Men’s ICC World Cup victory coming in after more than a decade with overwhelming ecstasy, tears, traffic jams and tequilas. A SIXER in the Paris Olympics and the latest stellar World Chess Championship 2024 conquest of “Lord of the Board” Gukesh D. becoming the 18th and youngest undisputed world champion, at the age of 18 years and 195 days.
With Israel Hamas conflict spiralling out in all wrong directions bringing in new actors, India has shown a genius diplomatic manoeuvre maintaining strong relations with both Israel and Arabs. It condemned the terrorist acts on Israel while staying committed to Palestinian statehood through a two state solution. India also supported the UN Resolution calling for ceasefire and humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“Trump 2.0 and Modi 3.0 combo” is set out to bring economic advantages to India with shared pro-business posture and focus on decoupling supply chains from China possibly placing India as US manufacturing hub. QUAD may be intensified providing strategic safety in the Indo-Pacific churning. Trump’s return also ignites hope for India’s increased access to US oil and LNG resources. However, tariffs from reciprocal trade, H1B restrictions, and Trump’s polarising tendencies need to be navigated skilfully.
India and China have a charged border with frictions occurring in Arunachal Pradesh lately. The resolution was reached in October on following key pillars – disengaging from contentious points and patrolling as before 2020 standoff. The agreement was triangular in nature with military and diplomatic engagements on one hand and high-level discussions between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. EAM S Jaishankar, has called this as cautious optimism, with complete cognizance of fundamental disagreements in sectors like Depsang and Demchok.
Sheikh Hasina, the ex -Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was ousted in August 2024 after a wave of intense protests against her touted “authoritarian” regime. On one hand, India sheltered Hasina, while maintaining diplomatic ties with interim government for the sake of regional security. India has been vocal on protection of minorities and revival of democratic norms in Bangladesh despite being wary of increasing Bangladesh-China-Pakistan axis. India’s foreign secretary visited the riot torn country to project India’s commitment to stability while high level talks have been scheduled to explore and revitalise stalled economic and trade relations.
Finally, after a decade of recognising 21st June (summer solstice) as International Day of Yoga, the world celebrated its inaugural World Meditation Day on 21st December 2024, (winter solstice) on the theme “Meditation for Inner Peace and Global Harmony,” clearly aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals. Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, piloted a global ‘dhyana’ session as he emphasised the benefits of meditation in mental clarity, emotional resilience and societal harmony. The date also marks the start of Uttarayana in Indian tradition, an auspicious period for inner reflection. Another feat in India’s Soft Power Diplomacy!
Artificial Intelligence and Terrorism: source Internet
The essence of global justice basically lies in the concept that it the ongoing and ever-continuing endeavors to achieve justice globally for the entire human-kind. It provides the rights to all the human beings. It also takes into consideration the issues which are pertinent for the global justice as a whole. The coming together of global community and uniting in conscience and establishing framework which is for public good which is integrated at both national and international level. There are different dimensions to global justice including normative, procedural, policy and institutional. Normative dimension includes evaluating the substance of rights which should be available globally while the procedural dimension is the incidental angle garnering the implementation of the rights identified in the normative dimension. Institutional dimension plies in a broader perspective of assessing which institutions are necessary for establishing global justice. Finally, as the name suggests, the policy dimension deals with the policies to be channelized for better accessibility of institutional frameworks established for achieving the global justice.
Threats to Global Justice
The attainment of justice, as frequently opined, proves to be an intricate and formidable endeavor. Multifaceted threats lie in the garb of looming threats to justice at global level. These include unequal share of resources and poverty, trade inequalities, migration challenges etc. One of the biggest threats arguably, is terrorism, armed conflicts and human right violations. Persecution, authoritarian regimes and terrorism based on geo-political scenarios poses a major threat. Terrorist activities often involve heinous violations and denial of human rights. The terrorism arena has been ever-evolving and changing into all the more dangerous forms. A major evolution in technology is the invention of Artificial Intelligence and the integration of AI with terrorism exacerbates the existing issues to global justice.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has advanced significantly in the last several years, changing many industries and affecting social structures. The following blog explains the AI tools and their modus operandi in driving terrorist attacks which induced terrorism and that leads to crime against humanity and eventually a threat to global justice. The blog also suggests the counter measures that can be enabled in fighting this AI driven war against terrorism.
AI Enabled Chat Platforms
Chat apps in particular, which are AI-driven communication platforms, are powerful tools that terrorists might use to attract and radicalize people. These platforms use artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to offer recruits individualized communications based on their interests and vulnerabilities. Extremist views can be normalized and a sense of belonging within extremist networks can be fostered through automated and persistent involvement via AI chatbots. Terrorists can hide their identities from prospective recruits by using these networks’ anonymity features. Furthermore, terrorists may reach a worldwide audience because to AI chatbots’ multilingualism, which helps them get beyond language barriers and increase the number of prospective recruits they can attract. “Rocket Chat” has been a dependable online communication tool in recent times; al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) both adopted it in December 2018. Its slack-like interface makes it easier for jihadist organizations and their supporters to have encrypted chats, which in turn makes it possible for official and unauthorized material to spread over privately run servers. Because of the platform’s open-source nature, extremists can alter it to suit their demands and security specifications. Having direct control over servers lowers the possibility of external disruptions or content removal while guaranteeing continuous access.
The independent assessor of terrorism laws for the United Kingdom (UK), Jonathan Hall KC, has voiced worries about the possible dangers of AI chatbots that target and radicalize young and susceptible users. These chatbots’ preprogrammed propagation of terror ideas presents a serious risk to radicalization and the spread of extremist narratives. However, because AI chatbots are not specifically covered by the UK’s current anti-terrorism laws, Hall brought to light a substantial legal issue in prosecuting criminals utilizing AI chatbots for extremist narratives. Concerns for properly addressing and preventing AI-driven criminal actions, particularly radicalization, are raised by these legislative gaps.
Deep Fakes
Deepfakes, which were first praised for their entertainment value, have made it possible for users to easily include faces into a variety of situations and produce humorous videos. Deepfakes do, however, have a darker side, much like any technology advancement, which raises questions about its use by terrorist organizations and other criminal organizations. The majority of these misleading movies are produced by sophisticated deep learning algorithms, particularly those that employ Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), which are made up of a discriminator network and a generator network.
The discriminator evaluates the authenticity of the stuff that the generator has altered. The generator produces manipulated content, while the discriminator critically assesses its authenticity. Terrorist organizations are using synthetic data more frequently as a result of violent non-State actors realizing how useful it is for scheming reasons to manipulate the information landscape. Fake images and films have been used by organizations like The Resistance Front (TRF) and Tehreeki-Milat-i-Islami (TMI) in India to incite particular groups, especially vulnerable youth. Deception and misinformation have developed into powerful instruments with broad applications. Since social media has become so widespread in the digital age, bad actors have an easier time stoking division, influencing public opinion, and undermining confidence in democratic processes and institutions. In 2022, a news station in Ukraine reported that a breach had resulted in the dissemination of bogus information, which included a deepfake video purporting to show the Ukrainian President pleading for surrender.
These cases show how, during major events like armed wars or geopolitical crises, deepfake technology may propagate false information and cause confusion. Moreover, audio deepfakes have become a serious problem. Speech Synthesis Technology, or Text-to-Speech (TTS), allows malicious persons to mimic voices in order to trick and influence people by pretending to be the victim’s voice in audio messages. Deepfakes can take advantage of emotional weaknesses in the context of radicalization by producing edited videos that support extremist ideology, disseminating fabricated testimonies to support radical viewpoints, and airing propaganda that glorifies violence.
AI based Social Engineering Attacks
Although it was originally thought of as a sci-fi fantasy, swarm drone technology has evolved into a real, disruptive force that is changing the face of combat. A swarm drone attack is a planned attack carried out by many drones working together. The ability to launch numerous drones at once increases the impact that they can have on targets and, in the worst-case scenario, increases the possibility of widespread destruction and mass casualties. Terrorists can purchase drones from the commercial market, but coordinating a large group of them presents significant difficulties. It takes skilled operators, a strong communication system, and in-depth knowledge of drone technology to operate several drones efficiently. It takes a great deal of technical know-how and access to cutting-edge equipment to develop such capabilities, and many terrorist groups may not currently have these resources. But in the future, the hurdles to entrance might go down as criminal networks share information and technology develops quickly[i].
Terrorist groups have become more technologically proficient, purposefully employing less complex and easily accessible technology. Terrorists can benefit asymmetrically from the incorporation of new advanced technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), because of its accessibility and possibly lower financial requirements. Federal agencies face problems from AI-powered remote attacks, which makes it necessary to build countermeasures to deal with new AI threats.
Given that governments have not been the primary force behind the creation of AI, a complete restriction on its proliferation is not feasible. Some apps can’t be completely prohibited, such as digital assistants for commercial writing. Restrictions on life-threatening technologies, including Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), are doable, nonetheless. The topic of fully autonomous weapons (FAWs) and their ethical and security implications has been deliberated globally, including within the framework of the United Nations (UN). The employment of FAWs, which choose and attack targets on their own, presents serious issues and highlights the necessity for legislation to stop terrorist groups from obtaining them. The creation and application of automated detection methods, made possible by programs like DARPA’s Media Forensics and Semantic Forensics, are essential to halting the spread of deepfakes. A number of nations, such as China and India, have enacted laws making the intentional deployment of deepfakes illegal. Reverse image search and other cutting-edge detection technologies help to recognize and validate distorted information, supporting public awareness campaigns encouraging responsible media usage.
Counter Measures
Countermeasures that are comprehensive are needed to combat terrorists’ hostile use of drones. Drones with GPS capabilities cannot access restricted regions thanks to geofencing, which uses RFID or GPS to create virtual boundaries around military bases and key infrastructure. Micro drones can be detected and eliminated by Anti-Drone Systems (ADS) using laser-based and jamming methods. Drones are forced to land right away by jamming radio frequencies and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Additionally in development are high-power microwave counter-drone systems that use electromagnetic radiation to quickly take down numerous drones’ internal circuitry. Taken together, these steps provide a complete strategy to combat the challenges that the digital age presents, including AI, deepfakes, and hostile drone use by terrorist organizations.
Conclusion Even while there is still time for terrorist organizations to potentially use AI-enabled skills, it is important to keep an eye out for developments in this field. Organizations looking to harness developing technologies need to be proactive in addressing possible dangers. Concerns over possible terrorist abuse of AI are heightened by the technology’s increasing accessibility to the general public and its integration into vital infrastructure. The advent of weaponized deepfake technology presents a serious problem since it can completely transform deception by producing extremely lifelike and almost imperceptible false audio and video recordings. These advanced deepfakes pose serious risks since they rely on taking advantage of cognitive flaws to create obstacles that are hard to defend against and lack clear escalation limitations.
Furthermore, there are a number of security issues with the growing usage of drones for civilian purposes. Due to their increased availability and improved capabilities, hostile groups may be able to conduct assaults and acquire intelligence using these drones. The regulatory environment surrounding drones is still complicated, necessitating a thorough strategy for countermeasures that combines regulatory, passive, and aggressive methods. It is anticipated that the probability and sophistication of such assaults would increase as non-state actors gain access to increasingly sophisticated technologies like drones and artificial intelligence. The idea that state actors could use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as proxies adds more complication and a possible source of escalation to this difficult situation.
Aimed at attracting entrepreneurs, Estonia- the world’s most digitised country, has been running its highly successful e-Residency programme for a decade, with over 119,700 participants from 180 countries from around the world. This initiative is particularly appealing to entrepreneurs who want to leverage Estonia’s digital infrastructure and business-friendly environment while maintaining flexibility in their operations. The maximum e-residents are from Germany, Ukraine and Spain, with India ranking ninth, in establishing businesses online. More than 4000 Indians are registered as entrepreneurs utilizing Estonia’s e-Residency programme, thereby setting up more than 1000 companies mostly dealing with IT (information technology), telecom, e-Commerce, software development, consultancy etc. Reliance Chief Mukesh Ambani’s Jio Reliance too is registered in Estonia under the e-Residency scheme.
Since early 2022, citizens of Russia and Belarus have been unable to register as first-time e-residents due to sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.
Cyber security in Estonia: source Author
How this works
Estonia’s e-Residency program does not grant automatic citizenship. E-Residency is a digital identity provided by the Estonian government that allows non-Estonians to access various online services, such as starting and managing a business in Estonia, opening a bank account, and signing documents digitally. However, e-Residency does not confer any legal residency rights to live in Estonia or the European Union (EU). If interested in citizenship, one needs to go through the appropriate immigration processes, which typically involve residency requirements, language proficiency, and other criteria.
Johanna-Kadri Kuusk from the E-Governance Centre, Tallinn says, “Residency is a useful tool considering business in Estonia-which is the gateway to the EU, but it does not replace the need for a visa or residency permit if one wishes to live in Estonia.”
Estonian Minister of Justice and IT, Liisa Pakosta explains taxation in the E-Residency scheme, which itself does not automatically make one a tax resident of Estonia, however the corporate tax rate is 20 percent on distributed profits. Anyone running a business in Estonia who is not a tax resident, may not be subject to Estonian taxes on worldwide income.
Benefits of the scheme include, access to the EU markets, efficient and transparent business environment, utilisation of various digital services like online banking, payment processing, and accounting and remote management.
The most popular sectors where foreign nationals are signing up for E-Residency are IT, software development, finance, investment, crypto-related businesses, e-commerce, creative industries, consultancy services, online education and training.
Estonia’s smart city initiative: source Author
Jio Estonia OÜ
Jio Estonia OÜ was incorporated in Estonia in November 2018 by Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited (RIIHL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, with an aim to focus on software development and provide consultancy services for current and future technology initiatives undertaken by the group and its subsidiaries.
Jio operations in Estonia and other European markets are handled by Taavi Kotka through his Tallinn office. The entire paid-up share capital of Jio Estonia OÜ is held by RIIHL Kotka says, “E-Residency enables faster and hassle-free transactions and also is a useful tool where Indian talent and digitisation combine successfully.”
This overseas initiative has helped Reliance Jio Infocomm (Jio), the group’s telecom arm, establish a presence in European markets. By creating a unit dedicated to advanced technologies, the Ambani-led firm is set to delve into emerging fields such as blockchain.
Kotka adds, “Most Indians are looking for better business-opportunities with Europe. For European companies it is easier to do business with an Estonian company compared to any other international company. We hope the number of Indians registering companies in Estonia would increase.”
About the Author
Suman Sharma is a former instructor from the Indian Military Academy, Dehradun and has been a journalist for almost two decades in various respectable national and international media houses, covering and reporting on security, strategy, military diplomacy and international relations. She has won numerous national and international awards including the Great Women Achievers award.
Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, has increasingly become a battleground as pro-independence groups, particularly the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), escalate their attacks on Pakistani security forces and infrastructure. This surge in militant activity is a manifestation of long-standing grievances related to resource exploitation, political marginalization, and a fervent quest for autonomy that has characterized the region for decades.
In mid-December 2024, the BLA and BLF executed a series of coordinated attacks across various districts in Balochistan, strategically targeting military installations, logistical operations, and communication infrastructure. Notably, on December 15, BLA fighters assaulted a military post in Mirabad, resulting in the deaths of at least two soldiers and injuries to four others. The following day, they targeted a truck transporting minerals in Dukki, shooting its tyres and rendering it immobile while also destroying communication towers. Meanwhile, on December 16, BLF fighters attacked a military camp in Heronk, leading to one soldier’s death and injuries to two more. Additionally, earlier on December 13, the BLF executed Abdul Ghafoor, a military informant. These incidents reflect a broader strategy by both groups to disrupt state operations and assert their claims over Balochistan’s resources.
The roots of the conflict in Balochistan date back to its incorporation into Pakistan in 1948. Since then, various insurgent movements have emerged, fuelled by grievances over political representation and economic exploitation. The BLA and BLF have positioned themselves as key actors in this struggle for autonomy. The Pakistani government has historically been accused of neglecting Balochistan while extracting its rich natural resources such as coal, copper, gold, and oil without adequately compensating local communities. Reports indicate that between 2020 and 2024, at least 62 individuals working on projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) were killed in various attacks across Pakistan. The BLA’s Majeed Brigade has been particularly active in targeting Chinese nationals associated with these projects.
Recent assessments indicate that the threat posed by Baloch separatist groups is escalating. A report from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies noted that the frequency of attacks attributed to the BLA reached alarming levels in November 2024, with 12 attacks resulting in 45 fatalities, more than those attributed to the Pakistani Taliban during the same period. This trend underscores a notable advancement in the operational capabilities of these groups.
The implications of these recent attacks are profound and multifaceted. Firstly, the human cost is significant; these assaults have not only resulted in military casualties but also threaten civilian lives, exacerbating an already precarious humanitarian situation in Balochistan. The ongoing violence disrupting communities and heightens fears among civilians who often find themselves caught between state forces and insurgents. Secondly, targeting communication infrastructure undermining state operations and hampers emergency services, isolating affected areas and making it difficult for security forces to respond effectively. Lastly, the psychological impact on security personnel is considerable; the increasing frequency of attacks creating immense pressure that leads to potential retaliatory actions against civilians as frustrated military forces grappling with their battlefield losses.
In response to this escalating violence, Pakistani authorities initiated “Operation Azm-i-Istehkam” aimed at countering separatist militant groups operating. However, this operation has largely failed to tackle the underlying issues fuelling unrest. Despite extensive military operations throughout 2024 attacks have continued unabated with minimal success reported against insurgent groups like the BLA and BLF. In fact, during just the first half of 2024 alone, the BLF claimed responsibility for 108 attacks resulting in 112 security personnel deaths a stark indication that military offensives have not effectively curbed insurgent activities or addressed local grievances.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there were 72 incidents linked to the BLA recorded in 2024 alone that resulted in at least 253 fatalities, 55 civilians among them alongside significant losses among security forces (144 personnel). In contrast, during the same period in 2023, only 34 incidents resulted in just 69 fatalities overall.
Moreover, Pakistan has increasingly relied on Chinese military support to secure CPEC projects and counter threats from groups like the BLA and BLF. The Chinese government has provided not only financial investments but also military assistance aimed at bolstering Pakistani forces’ capabilities against insurgents. Reports suggest that Chinese security personnel have been deployed alongside Pakistani troops to protect critical infrastructure linked to CPEC initiatives.
Moreover, major operations conducted by these insurgent groups reveal their growing capabilities; for example, Operation Hereof carried out by the BLA involved coordinated attacks across seven districts on August 25-26, 2024. This operation resulted in at least 130 military personnel reported killed.
As Pakistan grapples with this escalating violence from separatist movements like the BLA and BLF while simultaneously managing international scrutiny over its human rights record regarding counterinsurgency operations against local populations the path forward remains fraught with challenges for Pakistan.
With the return of Trump in the White House again, the question of US-Iran Nuclear deal has come to the attention again and how is he going to deal with the issue in the second term. Iran anticipates the reintroduction of his “maximum pressure” policy, which could severely damage its economy and international relations. Iranian officials have signalled openness to a direct political approach, warning that a return to a maximum-pressure 2.0 approach will only result in ‘maximum defeat 2.0.’
Iran is feeling uneasy with the future of their Nuclear Program especially after becoming a part of Israel-Palestine war in order to stop the current genocide going in the Gaza and West-Bank and now spreading in Syria, Lebanon and other Arab countries as well. Now, all eyes are on Trump administration to make decision on Iran Nuclear deal. The objective is to get Iran to accept zero nuclear enrichment which looks less compelling for Iran.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal
The not-so-unexpected victory of former president Donald Trump on November 5 has renewed the discussion on how Trump’s approach towards Iran Nuclear deal will change from his first tenure and the Biden administration. In his first term, he imposed more than 1,500 sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign with the intent to destroy the economy of Iran and bring the country to its knees. Trump also withdrew from the JCPOA and issued a twelve-point set of conditions for talks with Iran, which included terminating the military dimension of its nuclear program, allowing rigorous and sudden inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, halting Iran’s ballistic missile program, ceasing support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and disarming Iraqi militias and integrating them into Iraq’s security forces. Trump also ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, which makes difficult for the Iranian regime to engage in negotiations with a leader they hold responsible for Soleimani’s death.
The Abraham Accords, establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan were undoubtedly the most prominent foreign policy achievement and legacy of the first Trump administration. Israel appears to favour a compartmentalized approach, Saudi Arabia, however, seems to prefer a comprehensive approach, with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan reiterating the need for a recognized Palestinian state as a precondition for any deal with Israel.
The Biden Administration was not as extreme as Trump, against the Middle-East Policies. In the Biden’s Presidency, US was trying to restore the 2015 nuclear deal but it broke in September 2022, due to accusation made by France, Germany and the UK for the violation of ‘Security Council Resolution-2231’ last year when Iran supplied drones to Russia during the Russia-Ukraine conflict even though Iran knows that Russia might use the Drones to target the Nuclear Facilities. Although Biden said the US is ready to make a deal if Iran is willing to comply. This 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal has been wavering since Trump abandoned it in 2018.
Iran has been under the close inspection for last few years due to recent nuclear development. Iran war also accused to nearing to becoming a nuclear state. Although, CIA director Bill Burns stated that US intelligence has found no evidence against Iran’s uranium weaponization. In the beginning of 2023, Burns stated that Iran can make at least one ‘Weapon of Mass Destruction’ in ‘the matter of weeks‘. The US defence authority Colin Kahl said Iran might make one nuclear bomb’s worth of fissile material in just 12 days instead of 12 months. But now in the end of 2024, it is considered that Iran has enough fissile material to produce three nuclear missiles within weeks.
Other than that there are few EU sanctions including missile, nuclear and other weapon, that has expired in October 18, 2023. On which Iran said it will be illegal for the EU to maintain sanctions on Iran. Re-establishing 2015 JCPOA deal and limiting Iranian stockpiling at this point will not stop the Uranium weaponization in Iran, because Iran has enough material to develop two Nuclear bomb. Thought one nuclear bomb is not enough to deter Iran from nuclear threat. Grossi said that there will be instability if the IAEA is unable to tell world that the nuclear program of Iran is completely peaceful.
Trump’s approach towards Iran Nuclear deal in his second term
It is estimated that, Trump might continue his “maximum pressure” campaign, possibly endorsing more aggressive actions, like supporting Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities like Israel has done previously. Such scenarios could create significant friction with some Middle-eastern countries and United States. Trump has signalled on several occasions that he does not seek regime change in Tehran and that he wants an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian Vice-President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif, has indicated that Tehran would enter into talks with Trump if it is treated with “respect.”
Before election 2024, Tehran said its tactics might change but who ends up winning the White House won’t alter its strategies. While President Joe Biden’s administration has worked to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and act as a moderating influence on Netanyahu, Trump’s return to power could signal a much tougher approach. This could also create friction between the GCC ‘Gulf Cooperation Council’ states and Iran. This will force the GCC countries to make a delicate balance between their strategic partnership with Washington and their efforts to maintain stability with Tehran.
The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is currently the most pressing regional issue, with a risk of evolving into an all-out, multi-party, multi-front war. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a “tooth-crushing” response to Israel in retaliation for air strikes on Tehran and multiple other provinces on October 26. It is expected that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might involve the Iranian army as well after four army soldiers were killed by Israeli bombs.
Besides war scenario, Iran has been dealing with economic crisis high inflation by U.S. sanctions. Following the withdrawal of 2015 JCPOA deal, Trump imposed vital oil sanctions as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign. This plummeted the oil export of Iran to 300,000 barrels per day or less by 2019. During the Biden’s administration the relation of Iran and US were getting better because of which Iranian oil export has improved to 1.5 Million barrels per day currently, up from 400,000 barrels per day in 2020. This changed Iranian economy significantly, roughly 70%, since oil export is Iran’s primary source of revenue generation.
Easier access to oil revenues also will be an attractive proposal for the Iranian government. This could give Iran an opportunity to sale Iranian oil to other nations more than China. If Iran could export oil out of U.S. sanctions, it could find potential buyers elsewhere at higher prices, contributing to Iran’s economy. This can help de-escalating the worsening relationship between US-Iran, giving Trump an opportunity to negotiate a deal with Iran.
Trump wants to make a deal with Iran, though many will try to block it, including Trump’s foreign policy advisers, some donors, and the Israeli government. All are pushing Trump to revert back to maximum pressure, arguing that this will “bankrupt” Iran and deprive its resources to pursue its nuclear and regional goals. Therefore, Trump might choose from two distinct track to follow. He can either putting ‘maximum pressure 2.0’ which is destined to escalate the current war in Middle-East or he can try lifting oil sanctions from Iran to increase their economic growth and to ease the relationship in order to negotiate a deal with Iran, on which both nations agree peacefully.
Impact on US-Arab Relationship
Post October 07, 2023, attack Israel and US both has been in continuous conflict with not only Palestine but also Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, other non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi movement. All of these state and non-state actors in the war are heavily influenced by Iran. Which makes Iran Nuclear deal even more problematic for Donald Trump. US Supporting Israel unconditionally can fuel the conflict and it will work against the Trump intent to de-escalate the global conflict.
Russia might be helping to advance Iran’s missile system. Russia supported U.S. and European efforts to compel Iran to limit its nuclear program a decade ago. However, Iran has developed close relations with Russia in last few years. Tehran’s agreement to supply Moscow with sophisticated armed drones during Russia-Ukraine war. Russia and Iran continued cooperation to secure the Assad regime in Syria. Russia and China have recruited Iran into several multilateral organizations, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, that can help Iran mitigate the effects of intensified U.S. sanctions. Though Iran will take some time to restarting a complete weaponization program which was stopped in 2003, but with Russia’s help and it advanced technology, it could be sooner than expected.
Saudi Arabia has shown signs of obtaining the nuclear weapon if Iran ever successfully detonates one. Although, it is too early to warry about Saudi Arabia right now. The Arab Gulf states have all improved ties with Iran since Trump left office after his first term. They all seek to de-escalate several regional conflicts in Middle-East, because they are concerned that Israel-Iran conflict might affect the economic growth of gulf countries.
Syria is a transit point for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has dragged them into the Israel Palestine conflict. Syria always has the territorial dispute with Israel over Golan Heights. Though, Syria was a primary base of the ISIS, they have not been a part of this conflict yet. The small military present in Syria trying their best to keep a close watch on ISIS activities to prevent them out of the war.
The relation between Iraq and Iran has also grown recently. Both Iraqi army and Iran-led Resistance group continues to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria. This has worsened the relationship between US and Iraq, despite the Strategic Framework Agreement they signed in 2008. Approximately 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq, to keep a watchful eye on ISIS activities. Recently, US has done an agreement with Iraq to withdraw US army from Iraq by the end of 2026. The second term of Trump administration might find it hard to go along with this agreement or Trump might even go against this deal and decide to keep the troops in Iraq, according to Iraq’s behaviour towards this conflict.
Conclusion
It is still too early to determine which approach would the Trump administration chose in his second presidency. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have steadily worsened, primarily due to the unwavering and unconditional support of U.S. for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu playing a key role in widening the gap with the current conflict. The assassination of Soleimani in first Trump’s presidency and attempt to kill Trump before the election of 2024, could influence Trump’s personal stance, adding another layer of complexity to the US-Iran Nuclear issue.
Trump could decide to do ‘maximum pressure’, considering Iran has been expanding ties with Russia, China, and Gulf states to increase their economy and military power. However, this could not only have a deteriorating effect in the relation of U.S. with Iran but other gulf countries as well. A diplomatic approach between Iran and the U.S. can give both parties a chance to negotiate and accept a compromised US-Iran Nuclear deal. This will help both countries to return to diplomatic successes similar to the Obama era.
On November 5, 2024, the United States conducted presidential elections. The Republican ticket of Donald Trump, the 45th president (2017–2021), and JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, defeated the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris, the current vice president, and Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. Trump and Vance are to be inaugurated as the 47th president and 50th vice president on January 20, 2025, following the Electoral College’s formal vote. President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election as the Democratic nominee, facing little opposition and easily defeating Representative Dean Phillips. However, after a widely panned debate performance in June 2024 raised concerns about his age and health, pressure mounted within the Democratic Party for Biden to step aside. Although he had initially resisted, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, making him the first eligible sitting president to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Biden endorsed Vice President Harris, who was officially nominated by the party on August 5, 2024, and selected Walz as her running mate.
Trump, who lost to Biden in 2020, wanted another term and got the Republican nomination with Vance after a strong showing in the primaries at the 2024 Republican National Convention. His campaign was full of false and misleading claims, including stolen election claims about the 2020 election, anti-immigrant rhetoric, conspiracy theories, and dehumanizing language toward opponents. Historians and former Trump officials described his political movement as authoritarian, with some drawing comparisons to fascism. Voters priorities during the election included the economy, healthcare, democracy, foreign policy (especially in terms of U.S. support for Israel and Ukraine), immigration, abortion, climate change, education, and LGBTQ rights. With 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 226 votes, Trump won handily. He carried all the swing states and flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump’s victory was credited to stronger support from working-class voters, especially young men, those without college degrees, and Hispanic voters. He is the second president who has won an election after a previous win, following the 2016 win over Hillary Clinton and the loss in 2020 against Biden.
Background
Article Two of the U.S. Constitution explains that in order to serve as president, an individual has to be a natural-born citizen of the United States, have at least attained the age of 35 years, and have been resident of the United States for at least 14 years. The nomination of candidates from a major political party is by means of a primary election where delegates to the party’s national convention are elected. The nominee then selects a running mate for vice president, and this choice is typically ratified by the convention’s delegates. If no candidate receives a majority of the delegates’ votes or if the presumptive nominee withdraws prior to the convention, a brokered convention may ensue, in which delegates may shift their support to a different candidate. The general election in November is an indirect process in which voters choose members of the Electoral College, who then directly elect the president and vice president.
Election officials across the country are facing increased workloads and heightened scrutiny. Many states have sought additional funding to hire staff, enhance security, and expand training programs. Offices are also having to deal with an influx in public records requests, something partly driven by distrust fuelled by Trump’s talk of election fraud following the 2020 loss. This comes along with increased retirement rates for election workers. His first impeachment by the Democratic-led House of Representatives in December 2019 charged him with “abuse of power and obstruction of Congress” for pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, by withholding military aid. Trump’s second impeachment on January 13, 2021, accused him of “incitement of insurrection” concerning the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Impeached twice by the House, Trump was acquitted by the Senate both times and is eligible to run again for president in 2024.
Efforts by state courts and officials to prevent Trump from appearing on the ballot under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment because of his involvement in the Capitol assault include a Colorado Supreme Court decision, an Illinois Circuit Court decision, and a ruling by the Maine Secretary of State. The efforts were not successful. On March 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Trump v. Anderson that states lack the authority to disqualify candidates for federal elections under Section 3. The Court clarified that only Congress can disqualify candidates or pass legislation empowering courts to do so.
Donald Trump’s false claims of interference
Donald Trump kept insisting baselessly that the 2020 presidential election was tainted with voter fraud and refused to accept it as valid even as election day of 2024 approached. In July 2024, The New York Times reported on an aggressive legal campaign by the Republican Party and its allies aimed at reshaping the voting system to their partisan advantage. This included efforts to limit access to the polls before Election Day and preparing for potentially spurious legal challenges to the certification process if Trump lost. Trump continued to espouse his now-familiar “stolen election” narrative of 2020, sometimes referred to as the “big lie”. He also repeatedly charged President Biden with politicizing the Justice Department against him through ongoing criminal trials
His promise to weaponize the Justice Department against political adversaries, to deploy the military in cities that have high crime rates or are active with drug cartels by invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, and his public endorsement of the January 6 attack on the Capitol increased apprehensions about the future of American democracy. In addition to these statements, the Republican Party took steps to monitor the election process closely. The Trump campaign vowed to deploy over 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling stations in battleground states. They also rolled out an “election integrity hotline” for poll watchers and voters to report perceived voting irregularities. Critics contended that this kind of action would be enough to create an intimidating atmosphere not only for the voters but also for election officials.
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
In 2023 and 2024, Donald Trump was confronted with serious legal challenges, including being held liable in civil cases for sexual abuse, defamation, and financial fraud, as well as being criminally convicted of falsifying business records. These legal issues were expected to feature in the 2024 presidential campaign. By December 2023, Trump had been criminally indicted in four separate cases, amounting to 86 felony counts, along with other pending lawsuits. On May 30, 2024, he was found guilty on all 34 counts of felony in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump. It was about the falsification of business records to hide hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in an attempt to quiet claims of a sexual tryst in the 2016 presidential election
Trump and many Republicans reacted to his trials by coming up with various false claims that they were “rigged” or politically motivated acts of “election interference” orchestrated by President Biden and the Democratic Party without evidence to back up these claims. Apart from the New York case, Trump faces 52 felony counts spread out across three major cases: Four counts in United States of America v. Donald J. On May 9, 2023, a jury ruled guilty on E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump for sexual abuse and defamation, awarding him damages of $88.3 million. In New York v. Trump in September 2023, he was found guilty for financial fraud and ordered to pay $457 million judgment, for which he appealed.
Public opinion is divided on whether Trump deserves the legal troubles that have befell him. An April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll found 74% of registered voters say the federal election interference allegations are serious, with other high percentages for the alleged Georgia (72%) and handling of classified documents (69%) cases. After conviction in the hush money case, 54% of registered voters said that the jury made the right decision but 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents think Trump ought to get out of the presidential race. But 56% of Republicans were unmoved by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans, along with 18% of independents, said they were more likely to vote for Trump. Trump tried delaying his trials, hoping to drag proceedings past the November 2024 election.
Analysis of results
As of 2024, Trump was the eighth presidential nominee in U.S. history to gain non-faithless electoral votes in at least three elections, joining such figures as Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Grover Cleveland, and Richard Nixon. Trump and Nixon are the only candidates to win a large number of electoral votes in three elections since the Twenty-second Amendment established term limits for presidents. Trump is also the only one of these eight to win the popular vote exactly once (Clay and Bryan never won it. Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, nearly 90% of U.S. counties swung in Trump’s favour both rural and urban areas. All 50 states and Washington, D.C. This election marked the first time since 1976 that all states and D.C. swung in the same direction, shifting towards Trump. Harris only won more votes than Biden in Maine, Utah, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin. She lost votes in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan. Trump picked up 2.5 million more votes, mostly from urban centre but also in rural and exurban counties across the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, and Mountain regions. Harris received 226 Electoral College votes, the worst performance for a Democratic ticket since Michael Dukakis in 1988. Trump won 312 electoral votes, carrying 31 states. This election marked the second in the 21st century where a candidate won fewer than 20 states, the other being John Kerry’s 19-state win in 2004.
The global risk implications of the US election and Trump’s presidency
A wild card for business
At the start of 2024, Control Risks forecasted that the U.S. election would be the most important geopolitical event in the year, with far-reaching implications. The U.S. holds a significant position globally, so its election outcome impacts international trade, financial markets, and geopolitics. The result can cause changes in trade policies and economic strategies that affect supply chains and market stability. Changes in U.S. foreign policy may also change international security risks and diplomatic relations. In addition, the elections are considered to be representative of the larger trends in governance and populism, which may determine the political stability of other nations. the first term of Donald Trump was characterized by significant changes in policies and a unique leadership style that transformed both domestic and international perspectives. His government adhered to “America First” policy, prioritizing the interests of the United States in matters such as trade, immigration, and foreign affairs. This approach often resulted in confrontational rhetoric, particularly towards established allies and international institutions. In terms of global diplomacy, Trump’s approach was unconventional. He pursued personal connections with authoritarian leaders, such as North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Decisions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and Iran nuclear deal highlighted willingness to cast aside multilateral agreements, which generated uncertainty over international cooperation.
This time: Stock market volatility and economic instability
Whereas many expect Trump to now resort to a more measured campaign strategy in his second White House campaign, he may indeed come harder with reforms as this most likely proves to be his final presidential term due to America’s presidential term limits. Whereas economic changes were experienced with the beginning of his tenure, there is a big likelihood that his return shall present similar economic instability to what his first term represented with all his unorthodox economical strategies. Trump’s unpredictable style, through which he often makes social media announcements of policy changes, is likely to trigger immediate market reactions, further increasing investor anxiety and possibly causing market volatility. His “America First” trade policies, including tariffs and trade barriers, especially against China, may revive protectionist measures, which will disrupt global supply chains and change market dynamics.
A second Trump presidency may also increase geopolitical tensions. His confrontational foreign policy, especially towards China and Russia, could reshape global alliances and cause friction between nations. Trump’s preference for unilateral actions over multilateral agreements raised concerns about international diplomacy during his first term, and countries may need to adjust their foreign policies in anticipation of his return. For instance, in an October 15 interview, Trump suggested that South Korea, which currently pays for the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops as a deterrent against North Korea, should pay the U.S. $10 billion a year, describing the country as a “money machine.” This transactional approach to foreign policy could have huge global security implications as both allies and adversaries measure how to respond.
Trump’s policies have already had a significant impact on global supply chains, and his return may pose new challenges to businesses relying on international networks. The threat of tariffs and trade restrictions may force companies to adjust their sourcing strategies, which will increase costs and cause operational disruptions. A report by the Economist Intelligence Unit expects Trump to actually implement his threat to impose a 10% flat tariff on U.S. imports, with additional measures on politically sensitive imports, such as steel. Businesses should consider diversifying their supply chains to reduce risks and engage with local suppliers or explore alternative markets to buffer against potential trade barriers. Legislative updates would also be important in helping companies that have to be concerned with the Trump policy on supply chain disruptions.
Geopolitical tensions and global relations
A second Trump presidency could heighten existing geopolitical tensions, especially with China and Russia, and reshape alliances and create friction among nations. During his first term, Trump favoured unilateral actions over multilateral agreements, which raises concerns about the future of international diplomacy. Countries that have relied on U.S. support in regional conflicts may have to adapt to a more unpredictable foreign policy landscape under Trump. For instance, during an October 15 appearance at the Economic Club of Chicago and Bloomberg News, Trump talked about South Korea, where there are 28,500 U.S. troops deployed to deter North Korea. This transactional approach to foreign policy would have far-reaching implications for global security as allies and adversaries weigh how to respond to a more isolationist U.S. policy.
President Vladimir Putin & President Xi Jinping: source Internet
The emerging China-Russian relations is one of the most worrisome trends in the current global order, especially for the traditional Western powers. This partnership is a testimony of two powerful players that have sought to challenge the Western domination. However, this partnership also poses profound threats to creating a more stable world, redrawing the map of international security, economy, and politics. The consequences of this partnership also go far beyond the West, impacting key players such as India and changing the balance of power in significant regions of conflict such as Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
China and Russia: A Strategic Partnership Rooted in Pragmatism
The primary motivation behind the China-Russian relationship is cooperative strategic objectives. Both Russia and China view the United States and its allies as adversaries seeking to undermine their regional influence and sovereignty. Their relations have become stronger in the past few years, especially after the crisis that erupted in March 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, leading to Russia’s economic isolation by the West. Russia, looking for economic and military partnership, has shifted more towards China due to it facing economic isolationism. At the same time, China is leveraging its close cooperation with Russia to increase its role in the global arena and counteract the West.
Energy trade remains one of the critical components of Sino-Russian relations. Russia, for instance, has turned out to be one of China’s most vital suppliers of natural gas and oil to aid China’s economic growth. The expanding economic cooperation is exemplified by the Power of Siberia pipeline, which further enhances interdependence. However, this emerging relationship is not without its challenges. Russia’s reliance on China as a primary market for energy exports creates an economic imbalance, leaving Moscow strategically vulnerable to Beijing’s demands.
Security cooperation between the two countries has also fostered increased cooperation, particularly through military training, arms exports, and defence cooperation. Advanced equipment such as Russia’s S-400 missile defence system has been exported to China, bolstering Beijing’s military capabilities. These developments are indicators of strategic alignments that are targeted at countering the USA’s military presence in areas such as Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific. These actions seek to destabilise the West’s alliances, such as NATO.
Due to the effect of the Western imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, China and Russia are shifting from the use of the U.S. dollar in their bilateral trade. Their decision to use national currencies in transactions is an indication of their willingness to undermine the western-dominated financial order. While these efforts are still in their infancy, they pose significant threats to the current global economic order by undermining the dollar’s supremacy and weakening the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
Western Concerns: A Strategic Challenge
Sino-Russian relations directly threaten the post-WWII liberal global order and have serious implications for NATO, the Indo-Pacific, and the world economy.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put pressure on NATO’s financial capabilities since the alliance has been mainly focused on containing Russia in Eastern Europe. Although Russia has become closer to China, the synchronised threat of Russia in Europe and China in the Indo-Pacific region is emerging. Joint military drills and cooperation in the development of strategic plans by both Moscow and Beijing may cause potential simultaneous crises for NATO, being unable to react to both adequately.
China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region, such as China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, align with Russia’s broader goal of countering U.S. influence. Their cooperation may prompt China to adopt even more assertive actions in disputed zones, which will highly threaten the interests of American allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Western powers are especially concerned with the emerging strategic convergence between China and Russia as the rise of this new threat challenges the balance of power in Indo-Pacific security architecture.
The growing economic cooperation between China and Russia, specifically in energy and trade, weakens the impact of the western sanctions on Moscow. The economic support China offers Russia helps it keep up its confrontational approach even if the rest of the world turns against it. For the western economies, partnership also threatens to disrupt global trade systems, particularly if China and Russia succeed in weakening the U.S. dollar’s dominance.
The China-Russian cooperation extends to technology and cybersecurity spheres as well, which causes concern in the West. Russia and China alike have advanced capabilities for cyber warfare, with Russia’s expertise in cyberattacks complementing China’s artificial intelligence and 5G technology capabilities. This partnership presents a great danger to global cybersecurity, with the potential for coordinated cyber operations against Western infrastructure. Western powers must address this challenge by enhancing their cyber defences and fostering technological innovation to maintain a competitive edge. The growing use of cyber operations as a tool of statecraft by China and Russia underscores the importance of international collaboration to mitigate these threats.
India’s Role: A Balancing Act
India is in a precarious position here, navigating this multifaceted relationship with Russia and China as well as forging deeper ties with the western alliance in order to counter the emerging Chinese influence. In the past, India has depended on Russia for defence equipment and supply of energy. However, the emerging strategic partnership between Russia and China has also caused considerable concern to New Delhi.
Russia continues to be India’s key defence partner, with advanced weaponry such as the S-400 missile system playing a crucial role in the Indian military’s preparedness. Even though India remains neutral with regards to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Indian side is keen to preserve this strategic relationship. Nonetheless, New Delhi is acutely aware of the consequences of a Sino-Russian partnership, especially if it weakens Russia’s capacity to act independently in its dealings with India.
The primary concern for India stems from the sour relations it shares with China, marked by border disputes and increasing rivalry in the Indian Ocean region. These worries are magnified by the prospect of a deeper Sino-Russian relationship, which might move the regional equilibrium even more in China’s favour. To offset this, India has been forging closer relations with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through groupings such as the Quad to achieve strategic autonomy while fostering ‘stability in the region.’.
Despite the challenges, there are certain advantages due to India’s geopolitical significance. Its strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region makes it an important partner for both Russia and the West. While Russia looks for India’s support to continue dominating Asia, the western powers regard India as an essential partner for countering China’s influence. Leveraging this position, India aims to balance its relations and navigate the complexities of the China-Russia-West triangle.
Conclusion: A Fragmenting Global Order
The emerging partnership between China and Russia signifies a major shift in the global order, challenging the traditional dominance of the U.S. and its allies. In this capacity, the military, economic, and technology cooperation between the two in international politics threatens to complicate global security and stability. For Western powers, the China-Russia alliance underscores the urgency of strengthening alliances, adapting strategies, and addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by this partnership.
India’s role as a key player in this evolving dynamic highlights the intricacies of modern geopolitics. As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, these new partnerships and alliances will set the trajectory of international relations for years to come. The current global order is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the deepening China-Russia partnership is a force that cannot be ignored.
