By: Gayathri Pramod, Research Analyst, GSDN

The geopolitical landscape of the Global South has undergone a massive shift with the proactive intervention of Russia and China, marking drastic change and imperative challenges as well. Before going deep into the topic, it is essential to analyze the Global South and how China and Russia are actively holding their footprints across this region. The Global South, a term often used to describe regions in Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia, has become a critical arena for geopolitical competition, with China and Russia exerting significant influence through infrastructure projects, strategic engagements, and military operations. These two powers, driven by their respective economic and political ambitions, have increasingly expanded their presence, reshaping the geopolitical landscape in ways that challenge Western hegemony and present both opportunities and challenges for the nations involved.

Geopolitical Intervention of China

China’s engagement with the Global South has been primarily economic, spearheaded by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a colossal infrastructure development strategy launched in 2013. The BRI, a testament to China’s strategic foresight, has seen China pour trillions of dollars into highways, railways, ports, and energy projects across Africa, Latin America, and Asia. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a flagship project, with billions invested in roads, power plants, and the deep-water Gwadar Port. Similarly, the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, initially developed with Chinese loans, became a symbol of China’s growing footprint when Sri Lanka was forced to lease it to China for 99 years due to debt repayment challenges. China has constructed significant highways, bridges, and energy facilities in Africa. The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway is a critical trade link facilitating Chinese imports and exports. China has also significantly invested in Nigerian oil and gas infrastructure, giving it leverage over one of Africa’s largest economies. Similar projects in Latin America, such as investments in Venezuela’s oil industry and Brazilian infrastructure, underscore China’s increasing dominance.

China’s debt diplomacy strategy has ensnared many nations, forcing them into asymmetric agreements. Due to unsustainable debt burdens, countries like Sri Lanka have ceded control over key assets, such as the Hambantota Port. China has established military and strategic nodes across the Global South through such manoeuvres, indirectly projecting its power beyond its traditional sphere of influence. China has constructed railways in Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia in Africa, creating economic dependencies while offering much-needed infrastructure. Latin America has also witnessed Chinese investments in sectors ranging from lithium mining in Bolivia to ports in Brazil and Argentina. These projects have provided economic growth for host nations but also raised concerns over debt sustainability and sovereignty, as some countries find themselves in difficult financial situations due to their reliance on Chinese financing. Russia and China have actively promoted multilateral platforms challenging Western-centric global governance structures. The BRICS consortium, which is comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is a prominent example. This alliance aims to amplify the voice of emerging economies in international affairs and offers an alternative to traditional Western-dominated institutions. Recent BRICS summits have focused on financial cooperation, the expansion of membership, and the development of payment systems that bypass Western financial networks. For instance, the introduction of BRICS Pay facilitates transactions among member countries, reducing reliance on established Western systems like SWIFT.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is another platform where Russia and China collaborate to engage with the Global South. Initially centred on security concerns in Central Asia, the SCO has expanded its scope to include economic and cultural cooperation, attracting interest from countries across Asia and the Middle East. This expansion reflects the organization’s evolving role in promoting a ‘multipolar world order ‘, a geopolitical concept that suggests power is distributed among several significant powers rather than being concentrated in a single superpower or a few major powers. Both nations have cultivated strategic partnerships in the Middle East to enhance their influence. China’s economic engagements, mainly through infrastructure investments, and Russia’s military interventions have positioned them as key regional players. Their coordinated efforts in conflict diplomacy and economic projects underscore a shared vision of reducing Western influence and promoting regional stability on their terms.

Russia’s Engagement in the Global South

Russia’s engagement with the Global South is multifaceted, with one of its most significant aspects being its energy sector. As a leading oil and natural gas exporter, Russia has strategically deepened its energy partnerships with countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. In response to sanctions from the European Union and the United States, Russia has redirected much of its oil exports to India and China, offering discounted rates to secure long-term buyers. India, in particular, has emerged as a crucial partner, significantly increasing its imports of Russian crude oil despite Western pressure. The strengthening of energy ties with India reflects a broader strategy where Russia provides resources to nations prioritizing economic pragmatism over ideological alignments. Russia’s role as a key energy infrastructure provider in the developing world is further reinforced by its expansion in Africa’s energy sector, collaborating with countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt on oil exploration, natural gas development, and nuclear energy projects. The Russian state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, has secured deals to construct nuclear power plants in Egypt and other African nations, further cementing Moscow’s role as a key energy provider in the Global South.

Beyond energy, Russia has cemented its presence in the Global South through arms sales and defence cooperation. As one of the world’s largest arms exporters, Russia has historically been a major supplier of military equipment to countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Nations such as India, Vietnam, Algeria, and Egypt have long-standing military procurement relationships with Russia, relying on its aircraft, tanks, and missile systems. Even amid geopolitical turbulence, India continues to purchase Russian-made S-400 missile defence systems, highlighting the resilience of their defence partnership. In Africa, Russia has positioned itself as an alternative arms supplier for countries seeking to diversify their military procurement away from Western dominance. Moscow has signed defence agreements with multiple African nations, including Sudan, Angola, and Mozambique, offering everything from small arms to advanced fighter jets. These military engagements and the enduring partnerships they foster serve as tools for ensuring long-term stability and security in the Global South, underscoring Russia’s strategic use of military engagements.

Russia’s partnerships in the Middle East also underscore its growing influence in the Global South. Moscow has established itself as a key power broker in the region, mainly through its military intervention in Syria, where it played a decisive role in supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s government. This intervention secured Russia’s strategic interests and reinforced its credibility as a global power capable of shaping conflicts beyond its borders. Beyond Syria, Russia has cultivated strong relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Moscow and Tehran have deepened economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, as both countries face Western sanctions and seek alternative trade mechanisms. The collaboration extends to military cooperation, with reports of increased arms trade and intelligence sharing. Meanwhile, Russia has also worked to maintain a balancing act in its relationships with the Gulf States, engaging in diplomatic dialogues and energy cooperation through the OPEC+ framework and coordinating oil production policies with Saudi Arabia and other producers. This multifaceted approach in the Middle East underscores Russia’s ability to navigate complex regional dynamics while securing its strategic interests.

In the broader geopolitical landscape, Russia’s engagements with the Global South align with its vision of a multipolar world order, where power is distributed among multiple centres rather than dominated by Western institutions. Moscow actively promotes alternatives to Western-led financial and trade systems, collaborating with countries in the Global South to develop new mechanisms for economic exchange. For instance, Russia has worked with China, India, and other emerging economies to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar in trade transactions. Initiatives such as the BRICS New Development Bank offer alternatives to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, allowing developing countries to access financing without the policy constraints often imposed by Western financial institutions. Russia has also advocated for greater use of local currencies in international trade, particularly in its energy exports to Asian markets. By fostering economic frameworks independent of Western influence, Russia aims to strengthen its partnerships with the Global South while reducing its vulnerability to sanctions and economic isolation. Russia’s engagement with the Global South faces challenges and criticisms despite its successes. While energy and arms sales have strengthened ties, economic investment from Russia remains limited compared to China, whose financial resources and large-scale infrastructure projects have had a more transformative impact in developing countries. Additionally, Russia’s reliance on security cooperation through private military companies like Wagner raises concerns about long-term stability and governance issues in countries where these forces operate. Moreover, while Russia seeks to position itself as a champion of a multipolar world, its ability to provide economic alternatives to the Global South remains constrained by its economic difficulties, exacerbated by Western sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Russia’s engagement with the Global South is a crucial pillar of its foreign policy. It is driven by the need to counter Western influence, secure economic opportunities, and promote an alternative global order. Through energy diplomacy, arms sales, security cooperation, and multilateral initiatives, Moscow has deepened its ties with developing nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These engagements reflect a pragmatic approach where Russia leverages its strengths in natural resources, military expertise, and historical ties to expand its influence. However, the long-term sustainability of these partnerships will depend on Russia’s ability to offer economic incentives and maintain political stability at home and abroad. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Russia’s role in the Global South will remain a defining factor in the broader struggle for global influence in the 21st century. Military cooperation, energy partnerships, and political alliances characterize Russia’s approach to the Global South. In the Middle East, Russia has established itself as a key player by supporting regimes such as Bashar al-Assad’s in Syria, thereby securing a strategic foothold in the region. This involvement projects military power and opens avenues for arms sales and energy agreements.

Geopolitical & Security Challenges

The increasing influence of China and Russia in the Global South has raised serious geopolitical and security alarms, prompting a revaluation of international relations and power dynamics. As these two nations expand their reach, they employ a multifaceted strategy that includes economic investments, military partnerships, and political alliances, all of which have profound implications for the sovereignty and stability of numerous nations. One of the most concerning aspects of this influence is militarising crucial areas, particularly in strategically important regions, for global trade and security. The establishment of military bases, the provision of arms, and the training of local forces by Russia and China are not merely acts of support; they are calculated moves to extend their geopolitical reach. This militarization often increases tensions and conflicts, undermining peace and stability in regions grappling with internal challenges.

Moreover, the economic dependencies fostered by debt diplomacy are creating a precarious situation for many countries in the Global South. China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America through its Belt and Road Initiative. While these investments can spur economic growth, they often come with strings attached, leading to significant debt burdens that can compromise national sovereignty. Countries that cannot repay these loans may be forced to cede control over critical infrastructure, such as ports and railways, to Chinese interests, deepening their economic fragility and limiting their autonomy. In Africa, for instance, China’s grip on essential infrastructure has led to a situation where many nations are caught in a cycle of debt and dependency. This economic vulnerability is compounded by the fact that local governments may prioritize foreign investors’ interests over their citizens’ needs, leading to social unrest and dissatisfaction. Additionally, Russia’s military engagement in various African nations, often under the guise of providing security assistance, has exacerbated internal strife and instability. The presence of Russian mercenaries and military advisors can escalate conflicts, making it difficult for governments to maintain control and governance.

The South China Sea is a critical flashpoint in this geopolitical landscape, with China asserting its dominance over vital maritime routes essential for global trade. The development of artificial islands, complete with military installations and an expanding naval presence, poses significant threats to regional security and the stability of global trade networks. The aggressive posture of China in this area has led to heightened tensions with neighbouring countries and the United States, which views the freedom of navigation in these waters as a vital national interest. Moreover, the increasing alignment of global southern Nations with China and Russia has led to Geopolitical polarization, with countries forced to navigate complex relationships with both Eastern and Western powers.

The US Response and Strategy against the Chinese & Russian Influence

In response to China’s growing economic power, the United States has launched several strategic initiatives to counter Chinese influence and provide viable alternatives to its investments. One of the most notable initiatives is the Build Back Better World (B3W) program, which seeks to mobilize private sector investment in infrastructure projects across developing nations. This initiative emphasizes principles of transparency, sustainability, and inclusivity, aiming to create a framework that contrasts sharply with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been criticized for fostering debt dependency and lack of local engagement. Complementing B3W, the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) has been established to enhance global infrastructure development further. This initiative focuses on delivering high-quality, sustainable infrastructure projects that meet the needs of developing countries while promoting economic growth and resilience. By prioritizing ethical investment practices and local community involvement, the U.S. aims to build trust and strengthen its economic ties with nations that Chinese financial offers may otherwise sway. In addition to these economic initiatives, the U.S. has significantly bolstered its diplomatic relationships with nations in the Global South. This includes enhancing trade agreements, fostering economic collaboration, and engaging in multilateral dialogues to counteract the influence of both Beijing and Moscow. By promoting democratic values and human rights, the U.S. seeks to position itself as a reliable partner for countries navigating the complexities of foreign investment and geopolitical pressures.

In order to address the military advancements of China, the U.S. has fortified its security partnerships through alliances such as AUKUS—a trilateral security pact with Australia and the United Kingdom—and the Quad, which includes India, Japan, and Australia. These alliances are designed to enhance collective security in the Indo-Pacific region, ensuring that member nations can effectively respond to potential threats posed by China’s assertive military posture. Moreover, the U.S. has increased defence collaboration with ASEAN countries, recognizing the strategic importance of Southeast Asia in countering Chinese influence. This includes joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and capacity-building initiatives to enhance regional partners’ defence capabilities. In Africa, the U.S. has ramped up its counterterrorism efforts and military training programs to limit the security foothold of both Russia and China. By supporting African nations in their fight against terrorism and instability, the U.S. aims to foster a more secure environment less susceptible to external influence. In Latin America, Washington has augmented military assistance to crucial allies and has employed economic sanctions and diplomatic strategies to mitigate Russian and Chinese influence. The revival of the Monroe Doctrine as a guiding principle underscores the U.S. dedication to thwarting external interference in the region. The expanding presence of China and Russia in the Global South has transformed global power dynamics, posing challenges to Western influence and altering regional security landscapes. While their economic and military engagements may provide avenues for development, they also introduce considerable geopolitical risks, such as debt dependency, political turmoil, and security challenges. The U.S. response signifies a determined effort to uphold strategic leadership, yet the long-term consequences of this geopolitical rivalry remain unpredictable. The trajectory of the Global South will likely hinge on how these significant powers manage their interactions of cooperation, conflict, and competition in the coming decades.

Conclusion

The consequences of China and Russia’s growing influence in the Global South are profound. While their investments and engagements provide infrastructure, military support, and economic growth, they raise concerns about sovereignty, governance, and financial stability. The debt-trap diplomacy associated with Chinese loans has led some countries to reconsider their participation in the BRI. At the same time, Russia’s military involvement in fragile states has sometimes fuelled conflicts rather than resolved them. Moreover, the increasing alignment of some Global South nations with China and Russia has led to geopolitical polarization, forcing countries to navigate complex relationships with Eastern and Western powers. China and Russia have established a formidable presence in the Global South through strategic infrastructure projects, military engagements, and diplomatic influence. Their growing role challenges the traditional dominance of Western powers and offers alternative development pathways for many nations. However, this influence comes with risks and complexities that each country must carefully navigate. As geopolitical rivalries intensify, the Global South finds itself at a crossroads, weighing the benefits and potential pitfalls of deepening ties with these emerging global players.