In a surprising and shocking turn of events that can signal tough and turbulent times for the world ahead, two people were killed in a missile attack in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, nearing the border with Ukraine at 15.40 pm UTC on November 15, 2022.
While the Ukraine and Polish authorities have said that this attack was caused by Russian missiles, Russia has ruled out any involvement in this incident. Meanwhile the US President Joe Biden currently in Bali, Indonesia for the G20 Summit spoke to the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg telephonically and held an emergency meeting in Bali with the leaders of some of the NATO members currently attending the G20 Summit like Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany.
The Polish missile attack can be a global flashpoint in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. In 1939 after Germany invaded Poland, the World War II erupted. In times of a war such incidents like the Polish missile attack can have detrimental and dangerous repercussions.
Many NATO countries have affirmed their support for Poland. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is about collective defence and attack against any one member of NATO is considered as an attack on all the members of NATO.
NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in USA. With NATO in an upbeat mood after Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, this missile attack in Poland can provide an opportunity it was looking for to take on Russia further. Whether this missile attack results in a retaliatory attack by NATO on Russia or Russia is further isolated internationally by NATO remains to be seen.
As severe winters set in Europe by end-November accompanied by heavy snowfall, the next fortnight is very critical for both Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war. NATO having smelt an opportunity in the aftermath of the Polish missile attack, will now fully weaponise this incident.
For sure, something big is bound to happen as NATO will not like itself to be projected as a weak alliance and let go of such an opportunity.
It is time now for restraint to be shown by the world leaders, else the future of humanity is at stake with nine nations today possessing nuclear weapons, unlike during World War II when only USA had nuclear weapons.
Hassan Rouhani’s quote “Global challenges require collective responses” is quite important as the worlds spotlight shifts to the G20 Summit on November 15-16, 2022 in Bali, Indonesia.
After the United Nations, the G20 is the second biggest alliance in the world as it comprises 19 nations and the European Union. The European Union consists of 27 nations, thus the G20 alliance has 46 nations as members.
The G20 countries constitute two-thirds of the world’s area, have 60% of the worlds population, conduct 77% of the international trade and contribute 80% of the worlds Gross World Product (GWP), thus making it a potent and a powerful alliance.
G20 was founded on September 26, 1999 with a four-fold aim to tackle issues of global economy, financial stability, climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
The G20 Summit in Bali is happening at a critical time when the Russia-Ukraine War is nearing its ninth-month having disrupted the global supply chains devastatingly, and the Covid-19 pandemic is on the wane having shattered the global economy. Thus, this G20 Summit is of immense global significance and the world has immense hope from the Bali Summit.
Attempts by the United Nations to end the Russia-Ukraine War have not been successful. The visit of the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to Russia & Ukraine in the last week of April 2022 did not yield any success to end this war.
The world now looks upon the Bali G20 Summit in the hope that methods and means are found to end this war which has directly and indirectly affected every global citizen.
Also, as the world recovers from the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic which resulted in every global citizen being affected directly, it is hoped that this G20 Summit finds solutions and systems to get the global economy back on track.
Since inception, the Bali G20 Summit is the most important G20 summit in view of the catastrophes the world is undergoing though presently. One very important outcome of the meeting between the US President Joe Biden and the Chinese President Xi Jinping on November 14, 2022 in Bali, a day before the G20 Summit officially begins, is that both the nations have condemned the Russian nuclear threats on Ukraine.
This positive statement coming from two powerful nations of the world, specially from China which is a close ally of Russia, can be taken as an auspicious beginning to the G20 Summit.
In case the G20 Summit is able to deliver the worlds expectations it will become a much powerful alliance and will save the world from further death and destruction.
As the world glare and gaze in on Bali for the next two days, Charles Kettering’s words “High achievement always takes place in the framework of high expectation” have a deep meaning for the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army and is an alumnus of NDA, Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures has also done MBA and LLB and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media work. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
Warren G Bennis’ quote “Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality” is buttressed with the recently announced results of the mid-term elections of USA.
As doubts were being raised in certain quarters since the turn of 2022 over President Joe Biden’s health or his supporting Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine War or allowing Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan on August 02 this year, President Biden has grown in stature and has emerged as a master strategist, as the results of the mid-term elections held in USA on November 08, 2022 were declared last weekend.
The Democratic Party’s dramatic performance in the mid-term elections ensured their hold in retaining control over the all-important Senate, thus signalling that the American voters had stamped their approval to President Biden’s domestic and international policies.
In this article we will analyse three implications the results of the US mid-term elections of 2022 will have globally.
The first major implication is that the Russia-Ukraine War will now become longer and lengthier as US will keep on continuing its support to Ukraine in all possible sense except sending its soldiers in the war zone. Ukraine having smelt victory after routing the Russians in Kherson is no mood to stop the war till it frees the area that have been annexed by Russia in the ongoing war.
The second implication is that China will feel the pinch and pressure more, a trailer of which was seen by the enacting of the Chips and Science Act in July by the US Congress this year. This Act entails giving more than US$ 50 billion in federal grants to firms building semiconductor manufacturing facilities in USA with a caveat not to upgrade any China based factories for a decade. This has effectively crushed and crumbled China’s dreams of becoming a world leader in the production of semiconductors by 2030.
Also, USA will continue its full support to Taiwan militarily thus thwarting and frustrating China’s designs to annex Taiwan. The tension across the Taiwan Straits will increase in the days ahead as Xi Jinping will be under immense pressure as the next Chinese Presidential elections slated in 2027 approach nearer.
Lastly, the mid-term election results will prove to be a boon to India as the Indo-US relations will get better and brighter, though traditionally the Democrats have not been pro-India. The Pentagon in its security report submitted on November 05, 2022 has labelled China as the leading security threat to USA.
USA is well aware that in order to check and contain China, it needs the help of India which is a reckonable force in the Indian Ocean. This is evident from the fact that President Biden incorporated India in the I2U2 Summit held in July this year and the applause that India got in the recently concluded Quad Summit in Tokyo on May 24, 2022. The fact that USA did not impose tough measures on India, except for a few statements here and there, as it continues to purchase oil from Russia and purchased the S-400 air defence system from Russia shows the clout India has today in international affairs.
John C Maxwell’s quip “A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way” fits aptly and appropriately for President Joe Biden who has led the Democrats in an historic win in the mid-term election in USA. The path to the 2024 US Presidential Elections has got clearer.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army and is an alumnus of NDA, Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures has also done MBA and LLB and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media work. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
The quote by the famous Chinese strategist Sun Tzu many centuries back “The peak efficiency of knowledge and strategy is to make conflict unnecessary” should now be used by an India led alliance to check and contain China which has been harbouring expansionist designs on all its neighbours with whom it shares land borders.
China has a land border of 22,117 kilometres and has border disputes with all the 14 nations that it shares its borders with. It also has a dispute with three other countries over islands. In total, it has dispute with 17 countries over land and islands.
The String of Pearls which is a subset of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a network of Chinese military and commercial bases from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa. This network passes thought important maritime choke points that include the Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Mandeb, Gwadar Port in Pakistan, the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and also the Chittagong port in Bangladesh.
The String of Pearls coupled with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and some other parts of China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) pose a major threat to India’s security.
China has a diverse landscape with the Gobi Desert and the Taklamakan Desert in its north and the Himalaya, Pamir, Tian Shan and the Karakoram Mountain ranges in its west. It has sub-tropical forests in its south and a 14,500-kilometre coastline in its east.
The Chinese coastline is bounded by the South China Sea, East China Sea, Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.
The Yangtze River and the Yellow River which are the third and the sixth largest rivers in the world respectively, run from the Tibetan Plateau in western China to eastern China. Other major rivers in China are Xi, Mekong, Brahmaputra and Amur.
With this kind of a geographical layout, it is but natural that eastern China would be the centre of gravity of the country. No wonder eastern China is home to about 90% of the Chinese population and has the most important cities like Beijing, Jinan, Shanghai and Shenzen located in its eastern part.
Hence, the eastern part of China is the most vulnerable and China is aware that an attack on its coastline would make things difficult as it would get cut off from the world. It is this belly that is the most critical for China.
China has since long wanted to control the Indo-Pacific region which is of immense importance for its security and commercial shipping. The String of Pearls is one such initiative by China in this direction.
China seeks to encircle India by the sea route by wresting control of Gwadar, Hambantota and Chittagong. It has managed to secure full command and control of Gwadar and Hambantota.
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party which was held from October 18-22, 2022 in Beijing resulted in Xi Jinping being appointed as the President of China for the third time in a row. In his speech to the National Congress, Xi Jinping stated that the reunification with Taiwan remains his focus and did not rule out force to achieve the unstated unofficial national aim and ambition of the Chinese people.
With several senior Generals of the People’s Liberation Army elevated to the Central Military Commission who have experience in serving in the Western and Eastern Commands which are responsible for operations against India and Taiwan respectively, the next five years will be tough and turbulent for India and China and for the other countries like Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Vietnam.
Since the desires and designs of China in expanding its borders to include the land of the countries it has land borders/disputes with continue unabated, it is high time that a doctrine called the Garland of Pearls is formulated with India, Nepal, Bhutan, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan as its nine integral members. The nine-member alliance formed out of this doctrine should be a military alliance.
China does not have the capability and capacity to fight a two-front war with India and Taiwan at the same time. The military alliance formed out of the Garland of Pearls Doctrine will rattle and rumble China and will make it uneasy and uncomfortable.
A formidable and forceful military alliance will check and contain China.
Niccolo Machiavelli quip “Injuries ought to be done all at one time, so that, being tasted less, they offend less, benefits ought to be given little by little, so that the flavour of them may last longer” is apt and appropriate for the Garland of Pearls doctrine to be formulated so that the Indo-Pacific region sees an everlasting and an eternal peace.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army and is an alumnus of NDA, Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures has also done MBA and LLB and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his articles in the print media and news channel appearances. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
