By : Dhritiman Banerjee, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction 

During the early phase of the Cold War, Taiwan was a key partner in the anti-communist alliance, and America had made a security guarantee to the state. However, the Sino-Soviet split in 1969 and the resulting hard calculations of geopolitics made the Nixon administration recalibrate the American vision in East Asia to make Communist China a vital partner in the anti-Soviet crusade. However, the US security guarantee to Taiwan still remained in place to an extent. However, recent developments in the US-China relationship and the increase of Chinese aggression towards Taiwan has increased the importance of American security guarantees to the Island Nation. This article considers the question whether the American commitment to Taiwan still holds. 

US, China and Taiwan: A brief history 

Taiwan is a product of the direct aftermath of the Chinese civil war when the ousted anti-Communist Chinese leaders Chiang Kai Shek fled to Formosa Island and named it Taiwan. The Americans who had supported Chiang during the Civil War continued their support to the newly formed state of Taiwan and in fact refused recognition to Communist China. In fact, early US policy towards Taiwan regarded an invasion of Taiwan as an event demanding a US military intervention to defend Taiwan. In fact, in the 1950s and 60s, China which has always sought to integrate Taiwan into the mainland had military skirmishes with US forces over their aggressive posturing with respect to Taiwan. Opposition to Communism was the hallmark of the Taiwanese regime and therefore the foundation of the American commitment to Taiwan. However, while the US anti-communist commitment heavily influenced its Cold War policy towards Asia, the Vietnam War and its impact on America. The Nixon administration realized that it needed a powerful Asian ally to counteract Soviet policy. Communist China which had a strenuous relationship with the USSR post the Sino-Soviet split in 1969 presented a perfect candidate. Therefore, America revised its policy related to Maoist China and formally recognized Communist China. But American guarantees to Taiwan did not end during the new era. However, the US-Sino alliance was a temporary alliance built for the Cold War and after its end the rapid economic and military rise rise of China posed a direct threat to US hegemony. The US-China rivalry was cemented during President Obama’s pivot to Asia policy and exacerbated during the first Trump administration. These developments coincide with increasing Chinese aggression with respect to Taiwan which raises speculations as to the force behind American support to Taiwan. 

While the Americans have actively sought to balance China in East Asia by forming alliances with states like India, Japan and Australia. US military experts have warned that China control naval access to East Asia and challenge the US Navy in the region in short of all situations short of full-scale war. Secondly, it should be noted that the Iran War has exposed the shortcomings of American military capabilities and therefore, a military conflict with China may not be sustainable for Americans without considerable reforms in military operational planning, readiness and command and control. Thus, the question arises is defending Taiwan beneficial in the security calculus of the United States. 

The current military scenario of the US 

As former national security advisor Henry Kissinger used to say, America does not have permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. The focus on flexible interests over rigid values has been the defining feature of US foreign policy. The second Trump administration has increased this focus and defined the conduct of foreign policy in purely transactional terms whereby America has reduced military support to Europe and has reevaluated its commitment to military alliances like NATO and international organizations like the WHO. President Trump in his second term has also increased his support to Israel and has actively participated in military conflicts in the Middle East. However, his Iran campaign showed the limits of US military capabilities and therefore, he urged his allies to participate in the conflict which they refused and led to questions of reciprocity on US commitments to alliances. In these developments, Taiwan had a very interesting stance. Taiwan stopped short of taking an opinion on the strikes and advocated for global stability. Taiwan has also acted to diversify its energy resources to reduce dependence on the Middle East for petroleum. But US actions in the Middle East and Chinese support of Iran as well as its growing militaristic posture towards Taiwan has raised concerns in Taipei over the will behind Washington’s security guarantee. While Taiwan is a global semi-conductor and AI giant and has advanced resources, it still shares asymmetric capabilities with Communist China which has economic, geographic and military advantages over it. Therefore, Taiwan heavily depends on Washington’s security umbrella for its own security. 

However, public support for military action is decreasing in the US and everyday Americans are heavily criticizing the Trump administration for the inflation caused by the war in Iran and American performance in the conflict. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the US will commit to another foreign war like Taiwan soon. In fact, these developments have also been seen with concern in Taipei. Military analysts in the Island Nation have started to question American commitment to defend the Island Nation from Communist China and have encouraged Taiwan to develop strong indigenous military capabilities and multilateral defence partnerships with other states. Seeing the current domestic scenario regarding war in the US, these concerns are hard to ignore. Also, the US stockpile of missile defence arsenal is rapidly depleting in the conflict against Iran. Therefore, the US capability to defend Taiwan in such circumstances will be called into serious question. Thus, American willingness to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack maybe doubtful unless a situation threatening US sovereignty arises. Americans realize the need to recognize China as a major player in Asia and the limited scope of US military intervention with respect to Chinese actions in East Asia. In such circumstances, if a purely national interest approach to foreign policy is adopted, defending Taiwan just does not add value in terms of the cost-benefit calculation. Therefore, from an American perspective, military intervention to defend Taiwan will be too costly, unviable and unpopular to attempt. It should also be noted that the US Congress also recognizes the problems of defending Taiwan. The Congressional Research Service has increasingly reinterpreted the US-Taiwan relationship as the US requiring resisting a Chinese invasion rather than defending Taiwan. This shows that the US also recognizes the need to increasingly adopt a strategically ambiguous posture with respect to Taiwan rather than having a black and white perspective. Therefore, it can be said that the US recalibration of this relationship is a marker of American intent with respect to Taiwan. 

Conclusion 

It should be noted that while the US may not directly intervene to defend Taiwan, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will certainly involve an American response. The response will most likely be like US support to Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion rather than direct American defence of Taiwan. This is because the US is not ready to engage in a full-scale military conflict with China. While security guarantees to allies hold weight in international politics, such guarantees are not sustainable if they supersede the national interests of the guaranteeing nation-state. Therefore, in this regard it should be noted that purely from a national interest calculus defence of Taiwan will be too costly for the United States to even attempt.