By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN
Due to recent changes in the United States nuclear policies, many countries have started doubting America’s nuclear umbrella and thinking of having their own nuclear weapon. The distrust was visible in Former President Joe Biden and it is worsening in the Trump administration. Although the calls for nuclear armament had already been rising in both Japan and South Korea before Trump’s return to office, Trump.s new approach towards nuclear policies of Japan and Republic of Korea in his second presidency have forced both countries to start think seriously and urgently about developing their own Weapon of Mass Destruction instead of relying on America’s Nuclear Umbrella.
South Korea & Japan – Pursuit for Nuclear Weapon
The biggest threat both Japan and South Korea have is the increasing number of North Korea’s nuclear potential. Even though America assured to deter the Korean peninsula, the history has shown otherwise. North Korea has not only developed but increasingly expanding its nuclear arsenal and also become more provocative, testing missiles powerful enough to reach the United States. Which has triggered Japan and South Korea to lean towards the idea of nuclear option.
South Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, as Washington pushed non-proliferation, and chose to rely on the United States to defend it against the North. The pursuit of nuclear weapons in South Korea is an old debate that triggers every once in a while, especially since 2006 when North Korea tested its first bomb. However, in the last few years, the call for South Korea to have nuclear weapons has increased significantly. Public opinion polls have shown that a majority of South Koreans over 70% support the development of indigenous nuclear weapons.
Right now, South Korea is under the protection of United States Nuclear Umbrella which they signed with Washington in 1953. North Korea has a long history of pursuing nuclear capabilities since the 1960s, even before it initiated its nuclear programme around 1993. But America already withdrew all American tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, with Seoul’s consent, and the joint declaration of the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Japan’s former Prime Minister Eisaku Sato gave the “Three Nonnuclear Principles” in December 1967, that later became the foundation of Japan’s nuclear policy. The policies are that “Japan would not develop nuclear weapons; It would not possess nuclear weapons; It would not allow nuclear weapons to be stationed on its territory.” Later he added the fourth principle that Japan would adhere to the three Principles as long as it retained confidence in America’s nuclear umbrella.
The concept of developing a nuclear weapon is long opposed by the people of Japan. However, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe deeply resented the Americans imposing this constitution on them. Japan wants the alliance with America, since 90% of energy requirement is imported in Japan. Mr Abe was supporting the idea of going nuclear, although it is believed that he was suggesting to borrow some nuclear weapons from U.S. instead of Japan build its own.
Why going nuclear is important now more than ever?
Just days into Trump’s second presidency, his secretaries of defence and state referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power.” This could potentially imply that U.S. has accepted North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. In addition, Trump said he would “reach out” to Kim Jong-un, raising speculation that Washington might pursue arms control with North Korea instead of denuclearization, leaving South Korea vulnerable to nuclear threats. Recently, the US administration’s attempts to withdraw the US Forces in Korea (USFK) from South Korea. Trump also has indicated that he wants the ROK to contribute US$ 10 billion every year in order to deploy of U.S. troops in South Korea, which will be a big impact on South Korean economy and gives one more region to strengthen their own military and to consider nuclear option.
All this has increased the security anxiety of both Japan and South Korea. This shift of America’s approach to Pyongyang, all while North Korea’s increasingly belligerent behaviour, the Russia-Ukraine war, China expanding its territory and another critical factor are the reasons for the increasing distrust of Japan and South Korea with the United States. Regardless of its growth in soft and hard powers, being a non-nuclear state, South Korean has question that why would the US sacrifice New York for Seoul?
It’s no coincidence this call-to-arms in Japan came just as Russia has invaded Ukraine. Since than Japan has started thinking seriously and urgently about nuclear weapons. In 2022 Shinzo Abe got security anxiety by watching the invasion of Ukraine serves as a useful example of what can happen to countries that don’t defend themselves properly against bigger, better armed and more aggressive neighbours.
China hasn’t launched any major attacks yet, but it does seem to be moving in a bit of a Russia-like direction. China has been trying to slowly slice off bits of territory from India, the Philippines, and Bhutan, and it’s also now pushing a claim to the Japanese island and South Korea. This pattern shows that the China wouldn’t be satisfied with the conquest of Taiwan, they are more likely to have plans to claim Japan’s island of Okinawa, and might support a North Korean takeover of South Korea in order to turn the whole peninsula into a Chinese satellite state.
Many researchers believe that Mr. Kim Jong Un would no doubt use the nuclear arsenal in case it becomes clear they are about to lose any war. In that case, any non-nuclear country has only two options to defend their country, either by asking for help from the nations like U.S. and U.K. or to develop your own nuclear power if their policies are not reliable enough.
Impact on Proliferation
Majorities of nuclear experts believe that the existing nuclear policies are discriminative and overly-exaggerated. A breach in the Non-Proliferation is undesirable, but no sanctions were applied against the United Kingdom, France, or Israel. Similarly, U.S. had futile attempts to prevent India and Pakistan from joining the nuclear club and eventually accepting them as nuclear state. India gave the reasoning to deter from nuclear armed China, similarly Pakistan wanted to deter from India. Japan and South-Korea has the same reason to deter from North-Korea and potentially from China and Russia as well. South Korea’s nuclear weapons would let the state take a more responsible role on the global stage as a key U.S. ally and that such a change of national status would upgrade the ROK-US alliance, as well. From the view point of Seoul, South Korea is already more than justified to go nuclear.
But if Japan and South Korea get nukes, the other neighbour countries might consider to do the same such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia. This will promote the normalization of development of nuclear weapon. This will have a big impact on Proliferation by increases the probability of use of a nuclear weapon. The world needs non-discriminative proliferation regime, at the time America is showing less interest in being world leader, decreasing world’s trust in American nuclear umbrella even more.
Former Prime Minister of Japan Mr. Shinzo Abe suggested to share the U.S. nuclear weapon similarly current Prime Minister debated to have Asian version of NATO, a nuclear consulting body with U.S. to share the nuclear arsenal. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s diplomatic conversations in the initial years, culminating with the signing of the Washington Declaration in 2023, where both sides agreed to “commit to engage in deeper, cooperative decision-making on nuclear “deterrence”. However, whatever approach America might take, it must ensure that its decision is a well-considered policy considering all the consequences.
The political pressure on the U.S. will be too huge to respond with nukes in retaliation, putting the U.S. President in a dilemma: whether to put the US cities, innocent civilians, and worldwide US bases at risk or sacrifice them to defend an ally which is not a part of the US territory. Seoul also considers that “We cannot expect — and should not ask — the American president to use his nuclear weapons to defend an ally at the risk of sacrificing his own people.” This idea gives Japan and South Korea full right to consider nuclear option. Japan and South Korea are under direct threat of nuclear-armed neighbours, while neighbours continue to enhance their nukes, US allies remain without. Both Japan and ROK are aware of the U.S. decisions during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The majority of Koreans and Japanese think nuclear armament is not the best option, but it is inevitable.
Conclusion
Eventually, the President of America has to make a decision on nuclear talks for both Japan and South Korea. There are many reasons why Japan and South Korea have all the right to consider nuclear option. But this will lead in breach in existing Proliferation regime. The increase in number of nuclear states will also increase the probability of using it. But that cannot be allowed due to the devastating effect on that detonated land far worse than Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In order to prevent that from happening, a strict non-discriminatory Proliferation regime has to be enforced thought out the world. For that, the leading global powers have to take the lead and responsibilities to make all the nuclear countries and many non-nuclear countries to comply with that regime.
