By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Kosovo has been in the news recently because of the violent clashes that took place between the ethnic Serbs and the Albanian police. Kosovo has been a disputed area between the Serbs and Albanians. Kosovo declared itself an independent nation in 17 February 2008 and almost 100 countries have formally recognised the independence of Kosovo, but Serbia has not accepted it. They consider Kosovo to be part of their area despite the ethnic ratio of the nation. Kosovo has around 96% of Albanians and only 4% of Serbians living there. This has come out as a disadvantage to Serbia as the majority population wants to be independent from Serbia. This article seeks to understand the history behind the instability in Kosovo and its present-day scenario.

Where is Kosovo and why is it a disputed area? A Historical background

Kosovo is a small, isolated country in the Balkans in southern-eastern Europe. Its neighbours are Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Montenegro. Many believe it to be the origin of the Serb people. However, only 6% of Kosovo’s 1.8 million residents are Serbian, compared to 92% of Albanians. The others are Turks, Gorans, Bosniaks, and Roma.

Kosovo was part of the Serbian Empire and then the Ottoman Empire during the Middle Ages, because of which the country has been influenced by so many cultures and religious practices. With the rise of nationalism in the Balkan region in the 19th and 20th centuries, the Ottoman Empire collapsed and it led to the formation of independent sovereign states like Serbia and Albania.

Serbia was one of the six republics that became part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia after the Second World War. Kosovo was also part of it as an autonomous province. Yugoslavia was faced with political and economic turmoil in the 1980s and 1990s which set off racial tensions.  Slobodan Milosevic, the leader of Serbia, abolished Kosovo’s autonomy in 1989, setting off protests amongst the ethnic Albanian population. Early in the 1990s, as Yugoslavia started to fall apart, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina all proclaimed their independence, starting the Yugoslav Wars.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (made up mostly of Serbian forces) and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), a paramilitary group of ethnic Albanians fighting for Kosovo’s independence, engaged in combat during the Kosovo War.

This led to the displacement of thousands of people as well as loss of lives too. There were also reports of human rights violations reported during the war and events of ethnic cleansing also took place. When the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) launched a military operation against Yugoslav objectives in 1999, Milosevic was eventually forced to remove Yugoslav soldiers from Kosovo.

Following the conflict, NATO forces were tasked with keeping security in the area while Kosovo was placed under United Nations (UN) administration.

Numerous attempts have been initiated to solve the problems peacefully, such as the discussions that happened between Kosovo and Serbia encouraged by the European Union in 2011. The conversation was to restore matters and resolve issues related to shared interests, this led to the signing of a few agreements, such as the creation of the Association of Serb-majority municipalities and integrated border management.

However, tensions between Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority and the Serb minority, who live there, continue, especially in the northern half of the nation. Political, economic, cultural, and historical resentments between the two sides add to the difficulty of the issue.

Kosovo War and NATO

In 1989, the leader of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, altered the ruling of Kosovo to Belgrade, which was Serbia’s capital. This led to a lot of tensions between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Milosevic’s policy of ethnic cleansing led to large scale displacement of refugees both inside and outside the region.

In 1999, many diplomatic decisions and talks were set forward but the failure of all these led to NATO intervening. NATO launched an air campaign to halt the humanitarian crisis that was spreading over Kosovo. The mission was called ‘Operation Allied Force’ and it started on 24 March 1999 and then later was suspended on 10 June 1999 and it lasted for a total of 78 days. On 10 June 1999, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia withdrew military, police and paramilitary forces and accepted deployment of an international civil and security presence.

Despite many strains, NATO held together the war for 78 days and at first the targets were the air defences of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, then gradually NATO is said to have made use of advanced and precision- guided technology in order to avoid civilian casualties.

NATO deployed a multinational peacekeeping force called the Kosovo Force, whose members belong to NATO members as well as non-member countries, to provide a security mechanism for Kosovo. They also gave humanitarian aid in the region by delivering aid, helping refugees and displaced people.

NATO still maintains its role as the peacekeeping force in Kosovo and continues to maintain Kosovo Force. Its main role is to essentially maintain peace and security in the region. NATO works closely with all the authorities, organisations, and institutions in order to contain the security issues in the country. NATO is also said to be involved in capacity building programs as well as initiating dialogues between both nations.

Clashes and Consequences

The relations between the Serbs and the Albanians have been strained for a couple of years now. Recently, with a new election that happened, things escalated. The Serbs have boycotted the elections held in the northern region as the mayors who are elected are Albanians only. The turnout was less than 4%, which triggered protests from the Serbs majority that lived there. These four mayors must then be transported with the help of the Kosovo police to their office. This was met with protests as these elections were boycotted by the local Serbs, which led to the Albanians winning them with less than 4% turnout. The tensions began with the Kosovo police forces raiding the municipality building. The Serbs tried to stop the mayor from taking over the office and the police responded to them with tear gas. The Serbs then staged a protest in front of the municipality buildings, which caused problems between the Serbs and Kosovo peacekeepers and local police.

Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti and his government officially installed all the elected Albanian mayors without trying to control the situation in Kosovo. The government also ignored calls by the United States and European Union, which have always supported Kosovo’s independence from Serbia since its independence in 2008.

The Kosovo Force explained how it was faced with brutal and unprovoked attacks when they were trying to take control of a hostile crowd as the demonstrators clashed with the police and forced their way inside the government building in Zvecan, a northern town in Kosovo. And at least 30 NATO peacekeeping forces were injured in the protests that aimed at the removal of the newly elected Albanian mayors.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said 52 Serbs were hurt and a few of them seriously injured by gunshots from the Albanian police.

NATO has strongly condemned these unprovoked attacks on the Kosovo Force troops and said how unacceptable the whole situation is now.

While on the other hand, the Serbs are demanding the withdrawal of the Kosovo Police Forces, whose presence seems to cause a problem, as it has ignited protests in northern Kosovo and the Albanian mayors who they do not want as their representatives.

Serbia is backed by its strong ally, Russia, and even during the protests many demonstrations showing clear signs of Russia’s backing were showcased by Serbia. Russia has always supported Serbia on the issue of Kosovo and uses its veto power in the United Nations Security Council to block any decisions that seem to cause problems for Serbia. Russia has trade agreements with Serbia and often invests in its economy and provides them with infrastructure too. Russia also supplies Serbia with arms and ammunition as and when needed. And when issues of diplomacy arise, Russia always favours decisions that hide the interests of Serbia.

This complex dynamics of relationship between Russia and Serbia along with China creates problems during discussions and dialogues in the United Nations. Nations seek out their national interest only and this leads to clashes between various countries and their national policy.

International dialogues are in the need of the hour as clashes are erupting between both sides. The 1999 war was an example of the lengths both nations could go to achieve their national interests. And so, it is essentially important to reach consensus on this problem as soon as possible in order to avoid any problems in the future.

Both Kosovo and Serbia want to be members of the EU and so reaching a consensus on this issue is needed for both by the nations and Serbian intervention in Kosovo would mean a clash with NATO, which could have far-reaching consequences too. Serbia and Kosovo need to reach agreements in a diplomatic way in order to avoid instability in the region. 

By: Khushbu Ahlawat, Research Analyst, GSDN

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the leaders of Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) met in person for the first time in Xi’an, China. This meeting was held on May 19, 2023 and was a part of the China-Central Asia Summit, which has occurred virtually since 2020. Xi’an, historically known as Chang’an, is an essential city in Shaanxi Province and marks the eastern end of the ancient Silk Road. The summit aimed to strengthen the relationship between China and Central Asia. The leaders discussed various issues and areas of cooperation. They emphasized the importance of trust and support among the countries, especially concerning sovereignty, independence, and long-term development. They also highlighted the need for mutual economic development, supported by China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The leaders discussed connectivity, energy cooperation, green innovation, and regional peace. They aimed to build a closer community between China and Central Asia for the benefit of their people.

After the summit, the leaders released a joint statement called the China-Central Asia Xi’an Declaration, which outlined their shared vision for stronger ties. The declaration covered many areas of cooperation, including economics, trade, energy, climate change, and cultural links.

At the Summit, global leaders discussed various issues, including Russia’s role and support for Ukraine. While Russia’s influence in Central Asia is significant, China’s influence is also growing. References to “national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity” in the declaration were crucial for all the Central Asian countries, and it was not directly aimed at Russia.

The five countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) will strengthen people-to-people exchanges in various areas such as sports, archaeology, tourism, medicine, and healthcare. They will focus on the Year of Culture and Arts success for the China and Central Asian Countries, establish culture centers in each other’s countries, promote mutual visits, encourage youth exchanges, and implement the “Cultural Silk Road” program. China will continue to offer government scholarships to young students from Central Asian countries, establish more Luban Workshops and traditional medicine centers in Central Asia, and assist in developing highly skilled individuals.

The five countries are committed to fighting against terrorism, separatism, extremism, drug trafficking, and organized crimes. They will strengthen cooperation in bio-security, cyber-security, and disaster relief areas. They will also support the Afghan people in maintaining security, achieving stability, and rebuilding their country. Together, they aim to create a peaceful Central Asia without conflicts.

The five countries of Central Asia will follow the rules and principles of the United Nations Charter. They will strongly support working together with multiple nations and upholding international laws and norms that govern how countries relate to each other. They aim to ensure fairness and justice in global affairs and make the international order and system of global governance fairer and more equal. All sides have shown their support and readiness to implement initiatives for global development, global security, and the progress of human civilization, recognizing their importance for world peace and development.

China’s Push for Global Leadership

China is actively seeking global leadership, and the summit in Central Asia is a significant step toward that goal. It occurs alongside the G7 meeting and aims to enhance China’s regional influence. This summit holds excellent importance for Beijing.

Central Asia is strategically important for China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, a massive project spearheaded by President Xi Jinping. China is expected to focus on securing agreements for major infrastructure projects during the summit, such as constructing a railway line connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan worth $6 billion and expanding the gas pipeline linking Central Asia to China. These efforts reflect China’s intensified push to increase its global leadership and expand its economic and geopolitical influence.

Trade and Investment

China plans to enhance trade and investment with Central Asia by upgrading bilateral investment agreements and increasing cross-border freight volume. Chinese-funded businesses in Central Asia will be encouraged to create more jobs, build warehouses, and launch a special train service to promote tourism. To support Central Asian development, China will provide 26 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) in financing support and grants. Two-way trade between China and Central Asia reached a record $70 billion last year, with Kazakhstan leading at $31 billion. China aims to deepen its regional ties for food and energy security.

China intends to accelerate the construction of Line D of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline. It also calls for increased oil and gas trade, development of energy cooperation, including new energy sources, and peaceful use of nuclear energy. In the long term, China supports the construction of a cross-Caspian Sea international transport corridor and strengthening transport hubs for China-Europe freight train services.

During this summit, the five countries of Central Asia officially launched the China-Central Asia Summit Mechanism. They have decided that China and Central Asian countries will take turns hosting the summit every two years. The next summit will be held in Kazakhstan in 2025. The countries will further develop this mechanism and establish a permanent office in China. They will focus on transportation, trade, investment, industry, agriculture, energy, customs, and people-to-people exchanges. They are committed to taking solid and practical actions to promote comprehensive and deep cooperation among the six countries. President Xi expressed his satisfaction with the progress made during the summit, considering it a positive beginning for cooperation. He believes that with continued collaboration and determination, China’s relations with Central Asian countries will advance steadily, overcoming challenges like a ship navigating rough seas. This cooperation will bring new energy and vitality to the development and revitalization of all six countries and contribute to peace and stability in the region.

What’s driving China’s stepped-up engagement with Central Asian states?

Several factors drive China’s increased engagement with Central Asian states. Firstly, hosting the summit in Xian, which holds historical significance as the starting point of the ancient Silk Road, allows China to highlight its deep historical connections with the region. China aims to expand regional connectivity and enhance economic ties with Central Asia.

Additionally, China seeks to strengthen its role in security affairs in Central Asia. President Xi Jinping pledged support for enhancing the region’s law enforcement and defense capabilities, aligning with China’s Global Security Initiative. This move positions China to play a more direct role in security and economic matters, especially with Russia facing limitations due to its involvement in Ukraine.

Furthermore, with the United States reducing its presence in the region after withdrawing from Afghanistan, China sees an opportunity to increase its regional influence. Central Asian countries, concerned about Russian irredentism, are looking to China as an alternative security partner.

Overall, China’s stepped-up engagement with Central Asian states reflects its ambition to expand its economic and geopolitical influence and fill the void left by other global powers.

What do Central Asian states want out of their relationship with China?

Central Asian states aim to pursue a “multi-vector” foreign policy that maintains good relations with Russia, China, and the West while avoiding taking sides in the extraordinary power competition. They seek a balanced approach that maximizes their connectivity to the outside world without becoming overly dependent on any single country.

In the past, Russia has dominated security and economic relationships with the region, but with its focus on Ukraine, its influence is shifting. China is gaining geopolitical prominence, but Central Asian countries want to ensure they don’t become overly reliant on China either. They desire productive trade relationships with all their neighbors, respect for their sovereignty, and security assistance that allows for solid self-defense without getting entangled in great power rivalries.

Ultimately, Central Asian states strive for a Goldilocks situation, where they can maintain diverse trade ties, uphold their sovereignty, and receive security support that helps them defend themselves without becoming pawns in the competition between major powers.

Conclusion

So, China’s support for Central Asia is a way to counter the accusations made by the United States about its coercive diplomacy. In simpler terms, China is trying to show that it has friendly and cooperative relationships with other countries in the region to balance the criticism it receives from the United States for its strong-arm tactics in international affairs. By strengthening ties with Central Asian countries, China aims to demonstrate its positive engagement and cooperation in the international arena.

By: Vaibhav Borude, Research Analyst, GSDN

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized every aspect of modern life, including warfare. The use of AI in military operations has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, providing an array of benefits that have transformed the way wars are fought. The use of AI technology in modern warfare has changed the nature of conflict and has greatly increased the effectiveness and efficiency of military operations. In this essay, we will discuss the importance of artificial intelligence in modern warfare and the benefits it provides.

AI has numerous applications in the military, ranging from the automation of routine tasks to the development of autonomous weapon systems. One of the most significant benefits of AI in warfare is its ability to process and analyze vast amounts of data quickly and accurately. With AI, the military can make sense of the enormous amounts of data collected from sensors, satellites, and other sources, allowing them to make more informed decisions.

One application of AI in military operations is in the development of autonomous systems. Autonomous systems are robots or drones that can operate independently without human intervention. These systems are used for a range of tasks, from reconnaissance to combat. They can be equipped with sensors, cameras, and other devices that allow them to gather information and perform tasks with great accuracy. India is using this as a base to increase the surveillance along the Line of Control, as it provides real time inputs, and with reduced cost, it will greatly aid in border surveillance. The recent example of an attack on Moscow using drones shows how it poses a threat to late movers in using AI in modern warfare.

This use of autonomous systems in modern warfare has several advantages. For one, they reduce the risk to human life. In situations where it is too dangerous or difficult for humans to operate, autonomous systems can be used instead. Additionally, they can operate around the clock, without the need for rest or sleep, providing a constant surveillance and defence capability.

Another application of AI in warfare is in the development of predictive analytics. Predictive analytics uses machine learning algorithms to analyze data and make predictions about future events. In military operations, this technology can be used to predict the movements of enemy troops or the likelihood of a particular event occurring. By using predictive analytics, military planners can make more informed decisions and respond to threats more effectively. AI can be used to effectively analyse the inputs that we get from ground level, the use of AI and machine learning can lead to quick differentiation of data, and big data can effectively help in segregating the data, and taking right decisions at right time. As in India’s case the border is very long, by using AI we can use data analysis the filter the data and create a threat perception maps to aid the decision making

AI is also used in the development of cyber warfare capabilities. Cyber warfare involves the use of computer networks and digital systems to attack an enemy’s infrastructure and disrupt their operations. With AI, military planners can develop sophisticated cyber-attack strategies that can penetrate even the most secure systems. Additionally, AI can be used to defend against cyber-attacks by detecting and responding to threats in real-time. The Chinese red hats army cannot be ignored in this, they had attacked the power stations in Mumbai, that led to power outage all over Mumbai for hours, thus crippling the financial capital of India. India has also now started to develop its cyber warfare capability, to deter an adversary who is looking for opportunity to attack our critical information infrastructure. Indian government has created CERT IN teams, to repeal such type of attack.

The use of AI in military operations also extends to logistics and supply chain management. With AI, military planners can optimize supply chain operations, reducing costs and improving efficiency. For example, AI can be used to predict maintenance needs, ensuring that equipment is serviced before it fails. Additionally, AI can be used to optimize transport routes, reducing the time and cost of moving supplies and equipment.

AI is also used in the development of simulation and training systems. Simulation systems use AI to create realistic training environments that simulate real-world scenarios. This allows soldiers to train in a safe and controlled environment, preparing them for the challenges they may face in the field. Additionally, simulation systems can be used to test new equipment and tactics, allowing military planners to evaluate their effectiveness before deploying them in the field.

The AI has potential to lead to a geopolitical flux, as the trade war between USA and China is moving forward. Many MNCs are looking to move away from manufacturing in China. China has been accused of copying the Intellectual Properties and develop the technology that USA has. The use of AI can lead to such more sophisticated attack on the military installations all around the developed world. It will lead to strengthening of cyber security. At present, there is shortage of cyber security professionals, India can fill this gap. But India also needs to develop its cyber security as India is vulnerable to many cyber security threats like Red hat.

The rise of AI in modern warfare would lead to change in the way wars are fought. The information analysis with precision and high speed will lead, to benefits in manifold terms to the first-mover. AI itself can be used to create new super technology, that can open doors to many new technologies that were hitherto unknown to mankind. With AI and the vast amount of data set available, big data technology can be used to predict in change in security systems worldwide. Big data with facial recognition tech can be used for surveillance purpose. It can be used at airport to monitor the movement of criminals, scan the entire data at a faster speed with greater accuracy. It can be used to monitor the movement of illegal goods in the transportation sectors.

While the use of AI in military operations has numerous benefits, it also raises ethical concerns. One of the main concerns is the use of autonomous weapon systems. Autonomous weapon systems are weapons that can operate independently without human intervention. The development and use of these weapons raises concerns about their ability to distinguish between legitimate targets and non-combatants. Additionally, there are concerns about their ability to operate in complex and unpredictable environments, where the risk of collateral damage is high.

Another ethical concern is the use of AI in decision-making. With AI, military planners can make more informed decisions, but there is a risk that decisions may be made solely based on algorithms and data, without taking into account the human element, it can lead to biases and false rights that can escalate a conflict.

The concerns do not end here, there is also an issue of differential power matrix, that exist between the countries. China, USA are world leaders in new technology and FAB production, that creates a gap between the developed and developing world. India has resources, technology, manpower, intent but still we are behind these countries. This, can lead to another arms race, to create a hegemony on AI based modern warfare. Currently, there are no global statutes or laws that can regulate the AI based weapon system. Thus, there is need to develop new laws, conventions, to address the issue that arise on use of AI and also the issues that may arise in near future.

At best, AI would support the Warfare that exist as such in present, and lead to new technologies, and weapons. The warfare that relied on moving tanks, soldiers, would still continue to exist as we have seen in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. AI can help and aid in decision making and create new weapons system, but the earlier concept of warfare would still be required. The challenge in any warfare is to be prepared for worst case scenarios, and AI can be used in this situation perfectly. It can aid in prior decision making by using data based analysis, scenario generation and save the precious life of soldiers. AI would ultimately define, how power flows in society. The flow of power from the barrel of gun as Mao Zedong suggested, needs to be changed can barrel must be replaced with AI.

By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Myanmar has been hit hard by the Mocha cyclone on May 14, 2023, leaving many people dead and the toll is said to be on the rise. India has been in the forefront of ensuring a relief operation in place for the citizens of Myanmar. It has launched an operation named ‘Operation Karuna’ to send help and secure goods for the people of Myanmar. Four Indian navy ships arrived to provide supplies to the people, being the first responders to the cyclone-hit nation.

Destruction and Devastation

Myanmar on May 14, 2023 was hit by a cyclone named Mocha. It not only hit Myanmar but parts of Bangladesh too. The cyclone was recorded as a severe one by the Indian Metrological Department and a ‘Super Cyclone’ by the global weather website, Zoom Earth. The storm emerged in the Bay of Bengal and has been recorded as the strongest one in all seasons in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea since 1982 with a wind speed of 277 kmph. It was named ‘Mocha’ after a suggestion by Yemen.

According to Myanmar’s state broadcaster MRTV, a woman died when a building collapsed in a neighbouring hamlet, and thirteen people were killed when a monastery collapsed in a village in Rathedaung district north of Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine.

The cyclone hit on the weekend, leaving behind a trail of destruction for the people in Myanmar. The Dhaka Tribune reports that 81 people have lost their lives in the cyclone while at least 46 people have died in Rakhine state village of Bu ma and nearby areas of Khaung Doke Kar, which were home to the persecuted Rohingya minority.

The head of Bu Ma village explains how there are hundreds of people missing and homes destroyed. The worst hit regions of Rakhine house the largest refugee camp in the world, the Cox’s Bazaar.

Operation Karuna

India was the first responder to the cyclone hitting Myanmar. Indian navy ships, namely, Indian Naval Ship (INS) Shivalik, INS Kamorta and INS Savitri arrived at Yangon on May 18, 2023 with supplies. The fourth ship arrived on May 19, 2023 and carried food, clothes, tents, essential medicine, sanitary products etc. The supplies were immediately sent to the Rakhine and the worst hit regions.

As a country with principles of morality and ethics, India has always helped its neighbours through such crises and been at the forefront of such issues and leading the region. Even this time, too, India was the first responder to the cyclone hitting Myanmar. The Chief Minister of the Yangon region received the first shipment of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) supplies from Indian Ambassador Vinay Kumar in Myanmar.

“More than 40 tonnes of HADR materials brought by INS Shivalik, INS Kamorta and INS Savitri included emergency food items, tents, portable generators, clothes, water pumps, medicines, tarpaulins, hygiene and sanitary items, wheel chairs, face masks etc,” by the Indian Embassy in Myanmar. The fourth ship also bought more HADR materials as well as emergency materials.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, “India extends a hand of friendship to the people of Myanmar affected by Cyclone Mocha. Operation Karuna is underway. Three Indian Navy ships carrying relief equipment reached Yangon today. A fourth ship will be reaching tomorrow. The ships are carrying emergency food items, tents, essential medicines, water pumps, portable generators, clothes, sanitary and hygiene items, etc. India continues to be the first responder in the region,”.

On May 18, 2023, in the presence of Bo Htay, Mayor of Yangon, Major General Zaw Hein, Yangon Regional Commander, Rear Admiral Naing Min Kyaw, Commander, Naval Training Command, Commodore Kyaw Lin Zaw, Deputy Commander, Central Naval Command, and Captain Thet Win Hlaing, Commander, No. 1 Fleet, Ambassador Shri Vinay Kumar presented the first shipment of HADR materials to Soe Thein, Chief Minister, Yangon

The fleet of four ships is moving a variety of necessities, including consumable and non-consumable goods. Along with 16 medical pallets, the cargo consists of 14 pallets of essential supplies, both food and non-edible. Notably, INS Gharial has a mobile medical facility that can house a fully functional hospital with a 120-bed capacity. The medical pallets include a variety of necessary goods, including intravenous fluids for common infections and ailments, first aid kits, antibiotics, antihistamines, and pain relievers.

The provisions cover a variety of food items, including instant noodles, rice, milk powder, potable water, ready-to-eat meals, high-energy biscuits, Multi Micronutrient Food, cooking oil, sugar, canned fish, canned meat, tea, salt, spices, and other accessories.

The non-food supplies being shipped include tarpaulins, tents, bleaching powder, disinfectant liquid, soaps, detergent powder, hygiene kits, dignity kits, crutches, wheelchairs, chainsaws, paper towels, shirts, pillows, sandals, fuel tanks, solar lamps, generators that are portable, water pumps, and various other necessary supplies.

India- Myanmar Ties 

Historical, cultural, and strategic linkages define the complicated and multidimensional relationship between India and Myanmar. Since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, the two nations have maintained diplomatic ties. India and Myanmar have cooperated in a number of areas throughout the years, including trade, security, energy, infrastructure development, and intercultural exchange.

Bilateral ties greatly benefit from economic collaboration. India is a big investor in industries like oil and gas, power, telecommunications, and agriculture, as well as one of Myanmar’s main trading partners. Through projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, efforts have been made to improve connectivity between the two nations.

Another crucial component of the partnership is security cooperation. Both nations have collaborated to confront shared issues like transnational insurgency, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling. Border security and regional stability are made possible by cooperation between their respective armed forces and intelligence services.

Close links between the two countries have been cultivated through cultural and interpersonal exchanges. Due to historical ties between India and Buddhism, which is practised by a sizeable section of the population of Myanmar, pilgrimage travel between the two nations is very popular. The ties between the people of India and Myanmar have been further enhanced by educational and cultural interactions.

However, the partnership has also encountered difficulties and complexity, particularly because of internal political dynamics in Myanmar and issues with human rights. India has successfully engaged Myanmar while advancing democratic principles and human rights.

The “Act East” policy of India has recently placed a fresh emphasis on improving ties with Myanmar and other Southeast Asian nations. As part of India’s broader regional engagement, this strategy aims to enhance economic connections, foster cultural ties, and increase strategic cooperation with Myanmar.

In general, India and Myanmar keep working to deepen their bilateral ties and explore new opportunities for collaboration while managing the changing regional dynamics and tackling common challenges in a way that is beneficial to both parties.

India’s Foreign Policy and Crisis management

India’s foreign policy, which involves aiding its neighbours, is founded on the ideas of regional cooperation, mutual advancement, and cultivating cordial ties with surrounding nations. The importance of a secure and prosperous neighbourhood to India’s own security, economic development, and regional stability is acknowledged by this policy.

India takes a comprehensive approach to helping its neighbours and engages in numerous forms of collaboration. Giving developmental assistance, which includes funding, infrastructural projects, technical know-how, and capacity-building initiatives, is a crucial component. These programmes seek to aid the socio-economic development of neighbouring nations, encourage inclusive growth, and deal with issues like poverty, inadequate healthcare and education, and weak infrastructure.

India also actively participates in diplomatic initiatives to advance regional peace, stability, and conflict resolution. India works to promote a peaceful and cooperative regional environment by facilitating peaceful resolution to disputes and conflicts between neighbouring nations through dialogue, negotiations, and mediation.

Another essential element of India’s strategy for helping its neighbours is trade and economic cooperation. India wants to improve commercial ties on a bilateral and regional level, encourage international investment, and advance regional economic integration. India actively participates in regional economic cooperation frameworks to promote economic growth and regional integration, such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

India places a strong emphasis on cultural diplomacy and people-to-people interactions to improve ties with its neighbours. This includes easing simpler travel and visa rules, cultural exchange programmes, educational scholarships, and tourism promotion. Through such projects, the people of India and its neighbours hope to deepen understanding, spread goodwill, and create enduring bonds.

India’s assistance to its neighbours is not just motivated by self-interest; it is also motivated by a feeling of shared history, cultural affinities, and the conviction that regional fates are interwoven. India works to establish an environment that is favourable for group progress, security, and prosperity, benefiting both India and its neighbours, by fostering collaboration, development, and stability in its neighbourhood.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

As two of the largest countries in the world, China and India have long been recognised as significant players in the global geopolitical arena. However, in recent years, tensions between the two countries have escalated, leading many to question whether China poses a threat to India. The factors that contribute to this relationship are complex.

Border and Depsang Plain Issue

One of the main issues that has strained the relationship between China and India in recent years is the border dispute between the two countries. The border between India and China is one of the longest in the world, spanning over 4,000 kilometres, and has been a source of tension for decades. Since 1962, the two countries have had a prolonged history of disputed territory. Since then, there have been several skirmishes and standoffs between the two countries, and tensions have remained high. The Depsang Plains, a 972-square-kilometre area at an elevation of over 16,400 feet, continue to be a key source of friction amid the current tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) following the Galwan Valley incident in 2020, with India stepping up its defence and the Chinese expanding their presence in the region. The conflict in Depsang Plain, which is crucial to India both strategically and geographically, predates the present LAC issue. The Depsang Plains are significant because of their position. The eastern Ladakh region, which is also a part of India’s Sub-Sector North, poses the biggest military and strategic danger to the plains.

The Depsang Plains are more of a defensive feature than a strategically important attacking location.

Regional Dominance

Another factor that contributes to the strained relationship between China and India is their competition for regional dominance. Both countries are seeking to expand their influence in the region, and this has led to a series of diplomatic and economic tussles.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project that aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa, has been viewed with suspicion by India, which sees it as an attempt by China to gain strategic leverage in the region. India’s sovereignty is directly threatened by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which reaches Pakistan-occupied Kashmir through Gilgit Baltistan’s Karakoram Highway. Not only this, but also in Myanmar, China, under its BRI, has invested to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor with strategic infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and ports that will connect Kunming, China’s Yunnan Province’s capital, to Mandalay and then to Yangon and Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State. Projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and theKaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project aim to enhance connectivity and trade links between India’s north-eastern region and Southeast Asian countries and tackle the Chinese sphere of influence.

India’s own efforts to expand its influence in the region, such as its Act East Policy, have been met with resistance from China. India has also expanded the domain of its policy to include Pacific Island countries, where China has strategic interests. Act East policy also emphasises enhancing trade and investment ties between India and Southeast Asian countries where China is investing under its BRI. Efforts are being made to promote trade through initiatives like the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreementand theRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Economic ties and trade

Despite these tensions, there are also significant economic ties between China and India. China is India’s largest trading partner, and the two countries have significant economic interdependence. India and China have been major trading partners for several years. Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown significantly, reaching a peak of around $92.68 billion in 2020. Although there have been calls for a boycott of Chinese goods and products in India. Moreover, to counter the Chinese manufacturers, the Make in India initiative was taken, which has seen an overwhelming response, in which not only appliances or small products are being made but also the air defence system “Akash”, the light combat aircraft “Tejas,” and the INS Kalvari.

However, there has been a trade imbalance heavily favouring China, with India importing more goods than it exports. The trade deficit has been a persistent concern for India, as it has negatively affected domestic industries. The bilateral commerce between China and India increased by 90.14%, or 12.87% per year on average.

The total value of commerce with China rose by 8.47% annually in 2022 to reach USD 136.26 billion. However, this economic relationship has also been a source of tension, with India accusing China of engaging in unfair trade practises and dumping cheap goods in the Indian market.

Collaborations and Initiatives

Despite the tensions, India and China have continued to engage in various collaborative initiatives. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a multilateral development bank initiated by China, has seen participation from both India and China. Additionally, the BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) forum has provided a platform for discussions on economic cooperation among member countries. G-20 and SCO presidency by India, where China and India are heavy backers of the groupings. But China’s actions of boycotting the meetings of the G-20 held in Kashmir do show the true nature of their hypocrisy, where they are occupying Aksai-Chin, which is a part of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

Threat Perception

So, does China pose a threat to India? The answer is complicated and depends on how one defines “threat.” While there are certainly tensions between the two countries, it is unlikely that China poses an existential threat to India. Both countries are nuclear powers, and a war between them would have catastrophic consequences for the entire region. Furthermore, both countries have demonstrated a willingness to engage in diplomacy and negotiation to resolve their differences.

But there are certainly areas where China’s actions could be viewed as threatening India’s interests. China’s growing influence in the region, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, could pose a challenge to India’s own efforts to expand its influence. Similarly, China’s military modernization and growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean could be viewed as a potential threat to India’s security. Ultimately, the relationship between China and India is complex and multifaceted, and any analysis of whether China poses a threat to India must take into account the various factors that contribute to this relationship.

The relationship between China and India is complicated, marked by both cooperation and competition. While tensions between the two countries have escalated since the 1962 Sino-India War, it is unlikely that China will pose an existential threat to India in recent times. However, there are certainly areas where China’s actions could be viewed as threatening to India’s interests, and it is important for both countries to engage in diplomacy and negotiation to resolve their differences and build a stable and peaceful relationship. And if that is not suitable, then in that case of action, India needs to maintain an aggressive and protective stand regarding its territory and policy towards China.

By: Aqib Rehman, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Quad summit between the top leadership of India, Australia, Japan and the United States of America was canceled as the US President Joe Biden cut short his Asia trip due to the ongoing debt ceiling crises in America. However, the leaders met in Hiroshima to primarily discuss the Indo-Pacific region and the world at large. They also issued a joint statement.

What is Quad? The 4 democratic countries vis. India, Japan, Australia and the United States having found a common ground in the form of democracy came together to form this grouping in order to support the common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security. The group of these countries aims to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region remains free from any security issue, open for all the regional players and all the countries in this region prosper. The idea of Quad was first mooted by late Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe in 2007. However, the idea could not be materialized as Australia pulled out of it, apparently due to Chinese pressure. Finally in 2017, India, Australia, the US and Japan, came together and formed this “quadrilateral” coalition. The summit in Japan’s Hiroshima was the third in-person of the leadership.

What are its focus principles? The main principle of this group is to keep the strategic sea routes in the Indo-Pacific free of any military or political influence. Strategically speaking, this has been viewed by some of the Chinese observers as a coalition to reduce the dominance of China in the Indo-Pacific region. It also believes in the principle of rules based international order wherein no single country dictates the terms to its neighboring countries or to the international system in large. It also concerns itself with ensuring the freedom of navigation in the international maritime roots and keeping in check various security challenges. Liberal trading system is another main objective of this group. This became more important after world saw disruptions in the supply chain due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the trade rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. In addition to the above objectives, the coalition discusses various contemporary global issues at the ministerial and the top leadership level. These issues include and are not limited to critical and emerging technologies, connectivity and infrastructure, cyber security, maritime security, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, climate change, pandemic and education.

The 2023 summit in Hiroshima

Indo-Pacific remained at the core of discussions and the leaders in the joint statement reaffirmed their commitment to Free and Open Indo-Pacific and making it resilient. The leaders committed their countries for the development of Indo-Pacific region by supporting its stability and prosperity. The shared vision of maintaining dominance free area where no country is dominated and no country dominates others was reemphasized. The importance of regional institutions like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) was acknowledged and quad partners will work with these institutions.

Climate change was considered as a single largest threat to the humanity and the Quad countries pledged their support to the Pacific countries in fighting and finding solutions of the climate change. Quad countries and the Pacific nations will work together in the areas of climate action, ocean health, resilient infrastructure, maritime security and financial integrity. While defining their positive and practical agenda, the leaders recognized the urgency of resolving the climate crises. In this regard they will focus on climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts. This will be done under the directions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) will be utilized to increase the Indo-Pacific’s reach to the climate finance and climate smart technology. Referring to the extent of support provided by the quad countries to the Indo-Pacific countries which included some 400 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, they announced launching a broad health security partnership. This partnership will focus on strengthening the coordination and collaboration in enhancing the health security in the Indo-Pacific region. Supporting the health workforce development, disease surveillance, and electronic health information systems and coordination on outbreak responses was affirmed.

Quad’s stand on global issues

In the Indo-Pacific region, maritime peace and stability is of utmost importance. In this regard the Quad countries refer to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and affirm their adherence to the international law. The countries in the joint statement strongly opposed the forces which seek to destabilize the peace of Indo-Pacific region and the East and South China sea through any means. Without referring directly to China, the leaders expressed their concern over the growing militarization of the disputes, the manner in which the coastguards and maritime militia vessels are used and on the disruption on the offshore resource exploitation activities by other countries. The peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance to the international law without resorting to coercion was strongly advocated by the leaders. While the international institutions like the United Nations will be supported, any force compromising their integrity will not be tolerated. Underscoring the importance of contemporary realities, the countries reaffirmed their support for the reforms in the United Nations Security Council in both permanent and temporary membership. Terrorism also received some attention towards the end of the joint statement.

Hopes for the future

Quad in the coming years is going to play a quintessential role not only in the Indo-Pacific region but also in the world. Climate change or disaster has become a real threat to humanity. As Quad is a maritime alliance and mostly focuses on the countries bordering the seas and oceans, it has a greater role to play. The steps outlined in the joint statement are an indication of how it will shoulder this responsibility. The cooperation on climate will help in mitigating the climate changes by increasing the efforts on clean energy, climate finance and advanced climate technology.

Another hope emerges from following the international law and upholding the sovereignty of countries. This gives hope to the countries who are facing aggression from the authoritarian countries. While the statement referred to Ukraine, it gave a passing reference to China’s illegal advancement in the South China sea without naming it. This gives a sense of security to the countries having stake in these regions. The reform of the UNSC as highlighted by the joint statement is another hope for the future. Quad has the US as its member and it is also the permanent member of the UNSC. In this regard the Quad support is important for the initiation of reforms in the international institutions particularly the UNSC. Cooperation on terrorism requires likeminded countries to come together. Quad countries have democracy as their founding principle. Therefore, this alliance becomes important to fight the global and cross border terrorism.

Quad is an important alliance of likeminded countries. Their adherence to the international law makes it more important. Issues like climate change, unilateral territorial violations, global and cross border terrorism, maritime peace and security and the reform in the international institutions needs such countries to come together and chalk down the solutions for these issues. While some countries might consider it as an alliance designed to counter the China’s rise, the principles and objectives of Quad are very broad in nature and focus on the fundamental issues faced by humanity.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

Operation Kaveri which involved the evacuation and airlifting of over 3500 Indian nationals Especially the Hakki-Pikki tribe, along with several other foreign nationals from war-torn Sudan to India, has been wrapped up with success of bringing 3862 Indians back home. The mission was carried out in response to the escalating violence and instability in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region. The IAF deployed three C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and a team of over 50 personnel to facilitate the evacuation, along with INS Sumedha. The operation was conducted in close coordination with the Indian Embassy in Khartoum and the UN Mission in Sudan. Apart from Sudanese authorities, the MEA and the Indian Embassy in Sudan were in constant contact with the UN, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and the United States, among others. India not only brought back its own citizens but also those of its neighbour, Sri Lanka.

Sudan’s Coup

In April 2019, which ousted President Omar al-Bashir from power. The coup was led by the military after months of protests against al-Bashir’s regime. The military formed a transitional government, which was later replaced by a civilian-led government in 2020 after negotiations between the military and civilian forces. This was a significant moment in Sudan’s history, as it marked a shift towards democracy and civilian rule after decades of authoritarianism.

But the coup by the Sudanese Army in 2021 overthrew the Temporary Transitioning Government of Sudan as it was a move of ambition for power by Sudanese Armed Forces General Al-Burhan. The country is now in a state of civil war and tussle between the power-hungry General and the Rapid Security Force (RSF). Amid the civil war, the country has turned into an extreme hostile zone with no basic services functioning, and amidst all the chaos, the Indian diaspora is stuck in the regions of Darfur and Khartoum.

USA Brokered Ceasefire

A 72-hour ceasefire brokered by the US between Sudan’s warring generals went into effect following ten days of urban violence that killed hundreds, injured thousands, and prompted a major departure of foreigners. This truce intends to build humanitarian corridors that will allow citizens and communities to reach necessary resources, healthcare, and safe zones, as well as evacuate diplomatic missions. The government of India tried to make the most of the 72-hour window.

 But the military is warning the people of North Bahri and even Al-Qari about the RSF’s looting of numerous grain mills, overpasses from some road companies, and distribution tanks owned by food companies that were being used to transport munitions from their depot, making them military targets.

United Nations

External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar also met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York to request assistance. Given that humanitarian workers and ambulances have been targeted, it is evident that military troops, bureaucrats, and diplomats faced difficult days . They were undoubtedly helped by the cumulative experience of previous operations over the decades, culminating with the greatest single civilian evacuation during the Gulf War in 1991.

Regional Support

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt are the key players and partners who helped India bring its citizens home back safely. INS Sumedha, the third ship of the indigenously built Saryu class Naval Offshore Patrol Vessels (NOPV), arrived in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on February 20, 2023, to participate in NAVDEX 23 (Naval Defence Exhibition) along with IDEX 23 (International Defence Exhibition). It was an important element in transporting the Indian diaspora from Sudan’s port to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah port.

Egypt

Between April 13 and 17, the INS Sumedha was moored at ‘Port Said’ in Egypt. On April 15, 2023, as fighting erupted between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese military, Indian authorities dispatched the INS Sumedha to Port Sudan. INS Sumedha looked to be in a position to give rapid aid to the trapped Indians in Sudan due to its vicinity.

Saudi-Arabia

According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), this is due to the restriction of Sudanese airspace to all foreign planes, as well as the logistical hurdles and hazards connected with overland travel. Two Indian Air Force (IAF) C-130J planes were waiting in Jeddah to depart back to India with the trapped Indians from Jeddah Airport.

India’s Expertise in earlier Rescue Operations

This is not the first time when India has brought back its citizens home. Rescuing the Indian diaspora from hostile zones and returning them back to the motherland . Complex situations like these are the test of diplomatic ability and military capability of nations, and India has not just once but several times before proved its metal and executed such rescue missions successfully.

From Kuwait Air lift in 1990, following the march of one lakh Iraqi forces into Kuwait, over 2 lakh Indians were left trapped, leaving the general populace defenceless and with nowhere to go. Over the course of two months, the Indian government flew Indian citizens out of the country. Following this, Air India was inducted into the Guinness Book of World Records for carrying out the largest-ever air evacuation mission.

When the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels were embroiled in a fight in 2015, Indian authorities launched Operation Rahat. During the crisis, thousands of Indians and hundreds of international nationals were rescued from Yemen.

Operation Vande-Bharat was launched when the pandemic struck globally in 2020 and 2021, it trapped nearly 60 lakh Indian students as well as citizens of foreign nations. As a result, all foreign travel services were halted. The Indian government employed chartered planes, navy ships, and other ways to assist its countrymen in returning to the country.

Following Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine, Kiev proclaimed a no-fly zone. However, almost 20,000 Indians were present in Ukraine and were assisted in returning to India in stages through Operation Ganga.

India’s capacity to evacuate its people is noteworthy, and the principle of “No man left behind” is strictly enforced. The standard operational procedures that India follows are now being adopted by other nations, demonstrating the Government of India’s dedication to its people.

By: Hitti Chopra, Research Analyst, GSDN

The city of Sudan for almost a month is under a civil war where the two military factions are in a power struggle over a wavering transition to a civilian led government. The intense confrontations between Sudan military and paramilitary force have led to civilians paying a heavy toll. The nation is experiencing heavy looting, killing, fleeing of over more 3,00,000 people to neighbouring countries (according to UN Agencies).

The civil war is led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo also known as Hemedti.

Despite truces, ceasefires agreed by both sides, have been regularly violated, the fight between the two factions continues in the capital city of Khartoum. According to the NY Times “The most of the fighting now appears to be taking place in Khartoum and in the western region of Darfur. The army, which has access to planes, dominates much of the country, including Port Sudan. But most of central Khartoum is controlled by fighters with the Rapid Support Forces. Analysts say that in the view of dominance, the power struggle has led to political and social instability in the region.

The Rapid Support Force (RSF) was formed by Bashir 20 years ago to suppress the rebellion that arose in Sudan because of political and economic marginalisation in Darfur. Locally known as Janjaweed, RSF has been under scrutiny for committing serious atrocities. In 2013, RSF was formed as a paramilitary force and was deployed to repress the rebellion in South Darfur. In 2019, RSF was led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and general armed forces under Burhan cooperated to oust Bashir.

Sudan had been looking forward to a democratic, civilian led nation since the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Basher in 2019.The civilians of Sudan demanded supervision over the military and the integration of RSF in the general armed forces. Moreover, civilians have been seeking justice over war crimes by the military and its allies in Darfur since 2003.The trials of Basheer and other suspected Sudanese are undergoing in the International Criminal Court. The attempt was short lived and disrupted by a coup led by Al-Burhan in October 2021. It was directed against the transitional government led by Abdalla Hamdok which further led to suspension of international funding leading to humanitarian crisis in Sudan. The nation experienced political and economic instability, protests resulting to hundreds of deaths and injuries. In 2022, the military and civilian groups aligned for a democratic transition but before the framework could be finalised, Sudan experienced clashes between Al Burhan and Hamdam Dagalo.

THE REGION IN LIMELIGHT

Sudan sits at a key yet unstable position in the African continent. It has a considerable coastline on the Red Sea and is surrounded by seven countries — the Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Egypt, Libya, Chad and South Sudan who themselves have been experiencing political upheavals and conflict. The civil war possesses a threat to not only the reordering in Sudan but could be a start to new chaos in the region. The disputed farmland along the borders of Sudan and Ethiopia has further strained their relations. Many Sudanese refugees have fled to the neighbouring countries.

Sudan bordered by the Red Sea, Horn of Africa and the Sahel region makes it a strategic location and a contention between various regional power plays which complicates the chances of transition of the nation to a civilian led government. Sudan is rich in valuable natural resources which put the African nation in limelight such as China, Russia and USA.

The West since the beginning of civil war has sponsored mediation in and has backed a permanent ceasefire in the war region. The west has negotiated and pressed the Generals in Sudan for a transition to a civilian-led government.

Russia is eyeing for setting up a naval base in Sudan, linking Moscow to the Indian Ocean. Khartoum in 2019 during oust of Al-Bashir became the second largest buyer of Russian arms in Africa. The West fears the Russian naval deal to which the Sudanese military has shown openness. According to a CNN investigation, Russia is allowed to mine gold in different parts of Sudan which has cushioned the Russian economy amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has maintained to act neutral in the ongoing civil war in Sudan.

Like Moscow, Turkey seeks to increase its naval presence in the Red Sea and maintains its soft power through charities, educational institutions with Sudan. Turkey ensures a constructive perception in the Sudan region through its soft power.

The two Generals in the country could not come to a consensus and every ceasefire agreement has been momentary since mid-April. The nation amidst this power struggle is facing a huge humanitarian, economic crisis along with mass displacement in the region.