By: Varshitha Eddula, Research Analyst, GSDN

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Egypt’s capital Cairo on June 24- 25, 2023 for his maiden visit on the second leg of his two-nation tour. PM Modi arrived in Cairo for after wrapping up a successful visit to the US. The visit was at the invitation of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of Egypt, which he extended to PM Modi in January 2023 when he attended the Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi as the Chief Guest. This was for the first time that President of the Arab Republic of Egypt had been invited as Chief Guest on the Republic Day of India.

This is PM Modi’s first visit to Egypt as Prime Minister and the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister after 26 years. Upon arriving in Cairo, PM Modi was greeted with a ceremonial welcome and guard of honour and in a special honour, he was received by his Egyptian counterpart Mostafa Madbouly at the airport.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a roundtable meeting with his Egyptian counterpart Mostafa Madbouly in Cairo on Saturday. Later in the day Prime Minister met the Grand Mufti of Egypt Dr Shawki Ibrahim Abdel-Karim Allam. He also met Hassan Allam, CEO of Hassan Allam Holding Company in Cairo on Saturday, and called the meeting “fruitful”. In addition to topics relating to the economy and investments, I really enjoyed hearing his passion towards preserving cultural heritage in Egypt,” Modi said on Twitter about Hassan Allam. 

Prime Minister Modi also met yoga practitioners Nada Adel and Reem Jabak in Cairo on Saturday. “Nada Adel and Reem Jabak are making commendable efforts to make Yoga popular across Egypt. Had a wonderful conversation with them in Cairo,” Modi wrote on Twitter about his meeting with Nada Adel and Reem Jabak. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Egyptian author Tarek Heggy in Cairo on Saturday. “He shared his insightful views on global issues. I admire his rich knowledge on issues relating to different cultures,” Modi wrote about the meeting.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first official engagement in the country on Saturday was a meeting with the India Unit, a group of high-level ministers constituted by El-Sisi in March to enhance India-Egypt relations. Seven members of the Egyptian Cabinet, led by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, were also present during the discussions on deepening trade relations and strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries. “The setting up of the India Unit in the Egyptian cabinet indicates the priority given to India-Egypt ties,” Modi said.

The second day of the maiden visit to Egypt started when Prime Minister Modi visited the historic 11th-century Al-Hakim Mosque in Cairo on Sunday, which was restored with the help of India’s Dawoodi Bohra community. Over a thousand years old, Al-Hakim is the fourth oldest mosque in Cairo, and the second Fatimid Mosque to be built in the city. The mosque covers an area of 13,560 square metres, with the iconic central courtyard occupying 5,000 square metres.

The Dawoodi Bohra Muslims are a sect of followers of Islam who adhere to the Fatimi Ismaili Tayyibi school of thought. They are known to have originated from Egypt and later shifted to Yemen, before establishing a presence in India in the 11th century.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also visited the Heliopolis Commonwealth War Cemetery in Cairo and offered tributes to the Indian soldiers who bravely fought and laid down their lives in Egypt and Palestine during the First World War. Modi offered floral tributes and signed the visitor’s book at the Cemetery that comprises the Heliopolis (Port Tewfik) Memorial and the Heliopolis (Aden) Memorial. The Heliopolis (Port Tewfik) Memorial commemorates nearly 4,000 Indian soldiers who died fighting in Egypt and Palestine in the First World War.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi conferred the highest state honor ‘Order of Nile’ on Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the presidential palace in Cairo. Instituted in 1915, the ‘Order of the Nile’ is conferred upon heads of states, crown princes, and vice presidents who offer Egypt or humanity invaluable services. This is the 13th highest state honour conferred upon Prime Minister Modi by any nation.

The ‘Order of the Nile’ is a pure gold collar consisting of three-square gold units comprising Pharaonic symbols. The first unit resembles the idea of protecting the state against evils, the second one resembles prosperity and happiness brought by the Nile and the third one refers to wealth and endurance. The three units are connected to one another by a circular gold flower decorated with turquoise and ruby. Hanging from the collar is a hexagonal pendant decorated with flowers of the Pharaonic style, and turquoise and ruby gems. In the middle of the pendant, there is a protruding symbol representing the Nile that brings together the North (represented by the Papyrus) and the South (represented by the Lotus).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi toured the great pyramids of Giza on the outskirts of the Egyptian capital, which were included in the Seven Wonders of the World.

Escorted by Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Modi visited the three pyramids of the 4th-dynasty erected on a rocky plateau on the west bank of the Nile River near Al-Jizah (Giza) in northern Egypt. The Great Pyramid of Giza, which is the largest Egyptian pyramid and served as the tomb of pharaoh Khufu, who ruled under the Fourth Dynasty of the Old Kingdom. Built in the early 26th century B.C., over a period of about 27 years, the pyramid is the oldest of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World, and the only wonder that has remained largely intact.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi signed an agreement to elevate the bilateral relationship to a “Strategic Partnership”. Both the leaders discussed ways to further deepen the partnership between the two nations, including in trade, investment, defence, security, renewable energy, cultural and people-to-people ties. In addition, three Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in the fields of agriculture, archaeology and antiquities and competition law were also signed between India and Egypt.

India Egypt bilateral relationship

India and Egypt also share a close political understanding based on a long history of contact and cooperation in bilateral, regional and global issues. The joint announcement of the establishment of diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level was made on August 18, 1947.
Since the 1980s, there have been four Prime Ministerial visits from India to Egypt. Rajiv Gandhi visited the country in 1985, PV Narasimha Rao in 1995, IK Gujral in 1997, and Manmohan Singh in 2009. From the Egyptian side, President Hosni Mubarak visited India in 1982, 1983 (NAM Summit), and again in 2008. High-level exchanges with Egypt continued after the Arab Spring uprising in 2011 and then President Mohamed Morsi visited India in March 2013. External Affairs Minister (EAM) visited Cairo in March 2012 and the Egyptian Foreign Minister visited India in December 2013. Egypt has also been invited as a ‘Guest Country’ during India’s Presidency of G-20 in 2022-23.

The bilateral trade between India and Egypt achieved a record high of USD 7.26 billion in FY 2021-22. The trade was fairly balanced, with USD 3.74 billion Indian exports to Egypt and USD 3.52 billion imports from Egypt to India. During this period (FY21-22), India was the 6th largest export destination and 6th most significant source of imports as well. During April 2022-January 2023 period of FY 2022-23, the bilateral trade has reached nearly USD 4.4 billion, with USD 2.9 billion worth exports from India and USD 1.5 billion worth imports from Egypt to India. More than 50 Indian companies have invested around USD 3.15 billion in diverse sectors of Egyptian economy, including chemicals, energy, textile, garment, agri-business, retail, etc.

In the area of defence cooperation, India and Egypt have good relations. Desert Warrior exercise was conducted as the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the air force of the two countries. The more recent exercise between the special forces is another indication of the growing willingness to work together. The Egyptians have also shown some interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters. A military contingent from the Egyptian Army participated in this year’s Republic Day parade.

The cooperation during Covid-19 and Russia–Ukraine war stand the test of friendship. When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by dispatching three plane loads of medical supplies and providing 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021. India reciprocated a year later when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation following the abrupt halt in wheat shipments from Ukraine following the war. In May last year, India — which had put a ban on sale of wheat — allowed export of 61,000 tonnes to Egypt.

The development cooperation between the two nations includes grants-in-aid projects. These include Pan Africa Tele-medicine and Tele-education project in Alexandria University, Solar electrification project in Agaween village and Vocational Training Centre for textile technology in Shoubra, Cairo, which have been completed. Since 2000, over 1300 Egyptian officials have benefited from ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) and other programs like ICCR (Indian Council for Cultural Relations) and IAFS (India Africa Forum Summit). The Maulana Azad Centre for Indian Culture (MACIC) has been promoting cultural cooperation between the two countries.

By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Manipur has been a host of ethnic conflict and violence since May 03, 2023. There have been many issues that have triggered this violence but what set off the violence was a judgement from the Manipur High Court on April 20, 2023 regarding the reservation for the Meitei community. Briefly, it seems as if the judgement was the sole reason, but this is not true, the relations between the two communities have been slowly eroding for the past couple of years. Many other issues in the background and history have offset the current scenario in Manipur.  The violence in Manipur is disregarded by the mainstream media as conflict of interest between two ethnic groups, but a broader understanding of the issue is needed in order to understand the truth.

What is happening in Manipur?

In the northeastern State of India, Manipur violence erupted at the beginning of May 2023 and it has killed almost 100 people and wounded more than 300 and has displaced 60000 people in the past two months. The State Government has made use of the same methods used in other states when an emergency happens, such as cutting off the internet, military curfew, and stationing paramilitary troops with orders to shoot in extreme conditions.

What caused the recent issues in the state was when the Manipur High Court asked the State Government to consider Scheduled Tribe status for the Meitei Community, which is the dominant community in the region. Giving them this status would allow them to enjoy the benefits from the government. The Meitei community have been asking for this status for a long time and it was not granted yet because there was a fear it would cause a row between the communities. And just as they expected, the Kuki community came out protesting this move. Soon after the announcement from the court, a rally was organised by the All Tribal Students Union of Manipur on May 3, 2023.

Violence erupted soon with the burning down of the Anglo-Kuki War Memorial Gate. This led to the Kuki community torching localities of the Meitei community in Churachandpur. This in turn triggered the Meitei to burn down Kuki communities in Imphal Valley.

Background and Continuity

The protests might seem like the immediate reason for the ethnic conflicts, but it’s not. There have been years-long issues between both communities. They stem from the government’s actions of clamping down on reserved forests in the hill areas and the feeling of persecution felt by the Kuki community.

The Kuki community have also been angered by the government’s policy with respect to the refugees from Myanmar who they share very strong ties with. These refugees entered India escaping from violence in their nation and the government’s tough stance against them has been sighted as another reason for the conflict.

Another major issue is said to be about how the tribal community moves into the nearby forest lands as the population is increasing. These tribes see the surrounding lands as their ancestral land which they have complete rights to, but this angers the Meitei community, who do not have the right to buy land in the hill regions. The government has no real policy as to how to recognise the new villages and it has no transparent forest policy. This seems very troubling for a lot of people. These issues have been said to be some of the major reasons for the conflict in the region.

Almost 60,000 people have been displaced in total and some of them have taken shelter in camps and there are almost 350. Around 40,000 Indian Army soldiers, paramilitaries and police are stationed and they are finding it increasingly difficult to stop the violence. Weapons are said to have been smuggled in from Myanmar in illegal ways and only a quarter of them have been given back.

Both the communities have been accusing the authorities of siding with one side of the community and this has led to the vandalising and destroying of many churches and temples. The homes of important government officers are also destroyed. The normal life is on a choke hold with schools shut down, night curfew imposed, internet shutdown, barricades set against trucks bringing essentials.

Posts on social media that can get through the internet shutdown frequently contain messages of hatred, discord, and misery. The cost of basic goods is increasing, and trucks transporting food, medicine, and other necessities have become trapped. Although it is not yet obvious how the conflict will develop soon.

How the Indian Army is stuck in the middle

The Indian Army has been caught in the ethnic conflict between both communities, with them recently releasing a video of some 1500 women blocking their convoy in Itham village in Manipur’s Imphal East district on June 24, 2023. These women were demanding the release of some hardcore militants of KYKL (Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup). They were a banned insurgent group which had killed 20 personnel in one of the Indian Army regiments.

“Such unwarranted interference is detrimental to timely response by the security forces during critical situations to save lives and property,” the Indian Army said. This is one example of how the Army is caught between the violence of the Kuki and Meitei communities. Women from both communities constantly come and block roads and interfere with the security operations. The Indian Army is constantly blamed for taking side with the Kuki or the Meitei community.

The Indian Army was employed when the crisis hit the state and their last resort against the violence that was happening in the state was to call in the Indian Army. The violence and fatalities that occurred during the Tribal Solidarity March, which was supported by various organisations, made the already tense inter-ethnic situation even more explosive and ignited a conflict that has persisted to this day. The Indian Army and Assam Rifles initially deployed 17 columns at the state administration’s request; given the course of the crisis, the number has increased to 147 columns (nearly 10,000 people across ranks). This is perhaps the largest deployment of the Indian Army and Assam Rifles to assist civic authorities in restoring order, since India gained Independence in 1947.

The calling in of the Indian Army is essentially a sign of the failed administration of the State Government in managing the situation. Since the Army has been stationed for about two months, there is a need to improve the protocol for involving it in law-and-order concerns, which are primarily the responsibility of state police and paramilitary forces.

Changing Politics between BJP and the Christian Community

The Christian community in Kerala have essentially aligned with the BJP government after the perceived threats from the jihadists. The Community had promised BJP seats and a good number of vote bank from the community, but what changed this was the immediate violence happening in Manipur and the Modi government’s silence regarding the matter.

The Church explains how the Christian community members are solely targeted in the ethnic conflict and churches have been vandalised too. This Manipur violence is said to have bought an end to the ideological politics between the BJP and the Church.

What lies forward

Home Minister Amit Shah visited Manipur on a four-day visit on June 1, 2023. He announced at a press conference that there will be a judicial probe into the matter and measures will be taken to contain the issue at hand. The committee will be led by a retired high court judge. He also announced the formation of a commission for peace made up of representatives from various groups, the construction of further border fencing with Myanmar, and a demand for the return of 1,420 guns thought to have been stolen from local police since the fighting began.

There also have been efforts taken at local level to initiate peace talks between the communities. Women’s groups across northeast India have issued appeals and formed “Mothers Peace Committees” in various localities. Peace and prayer meetings are being held by several communities and religious leaders have also been calling for peace. Others have called for the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

Recently, Rahul Gandhi also visited and assured the people of Manipur of peace and appropriate measures will be taken to handle the issue. At large, there is a need to hold talks with the community members and deal with the issues at hand. There is a need for an open discussion in order to solve the issues and a chance to talk freely between the communities too. An urgent need to solve the violence escalation is crucial for the people of Manipur and for India too, as Manipur is a border state and unrest in a border state can have serious geopolitical ramifications. 

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived at Washington DC, he was given a ceremonial greeting at the White House’s South Lawn by President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden on a cloudy morning of June 22, 2023 Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden marked what they have termed a new chapter in the relationship between India and the United States.

A few thousand people from the Indian diaspora, some of whom yelled “Modi, Modi,” and representatives from both sides of the cabinet were there. The two sides unveiled a long list of deliverables encompassing defence, critical and emerging technologies, health, energy, and mobility during the visit, which was more than just pomp and circumstance. This was described by Mr. Biden as a “next-generation partnership” between the two nations.

Defence MOU’s

After the signing of an MoU with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), a division of General Electric (GE), General Electric Aerospace announced on June 22, 2023 that it will co-produce its F414 engines in India. This news coincides with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ongoing state visit to the United States. Plans were for just a 58 percent technology transfer for fighter aircraft engines in 2012. This increased to 80% following many rounds of discussions.

A day after PM Modi’s meeting with numerous prominent American business leaders, including H. Lawrence Culp Junior, Chairman and CEO of General Electric, and CEO of General Electric Aerospace, the company announced their statement via a press release. The subsidiary referred to the arrangement as a “major milestone” and stated that the F414 engines will power the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk II that is being manufactured in India.

Modi’s visit also saw the announcement of intentions to purchase General Atomics MQ-9B HALE UAVs, which is a significant milestone. The MQ-9Bs, which will be assembled in India, will improve India’s armed forces’ ISR capabilities across domains. General Atomics will also create a Comprehensive Global MRO facility in India as part of this strategy to help India’s long-term ambitions of increasing indigenous defence capabilities, according to the joint release.

Once deployed and operational, these HALE UAVs will be able to carry out and supplement the IAF’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Armed with payloads, the weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will be able to hit critical targets in mountains and the marine sector during long-endurance missions.

Space Deals

India decided to join the Artemis Accords on June 22, 2023 and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Indian Space Research Organisation decided to launch a collaborative mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s maiden State visit to the US. The Artemis Accords, which establish a shared vision for space exploration for the benefit of all people, are being signed by India.

The Artemis Accords are a non-binding collection of principles intended to direct civil space research and utilisation in the twenty-first century. They are based on the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 (OST). An American-led initiative aims to send people back to the moon by 2024, with the ultimate objective of extending space travel to Mars and beyond.

This year, NASA and ISRO will also work together to build a strategy framework for human spaceflight, along with working on NISAR.

Technology and Communication

According to the joint statement published, India and the US would concentrate on steps that encourage more knowledge exchange, co-production prospects with semiconductors, 5G and 6G communication networks, quantum computing, and high-end computing.

In a statement issued following a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the US, both governments committed to advancing policies and modifying regulations to enable more opportunities for technology sharing, co-development, and co-production between US and Indian business, government, and academic institutions.

Foreign Investments

In 2021, the Indian semiconductor market was valued at USD 27.2 billion, and it is predicted to rise at a high CAGR of approximately 19% to reach USD 64 billion in 2026. However, none of these chips are currently being developed in India.

During the visit, a US official announced that US semiconductor company Micron will invest $800 million in an Indian chip facility. Micron’s investment in India comes at a time when the country’s demand is expected to skyrocket.

Along with that, the producer of chipmaking equipment said that Applied Materials will invest $400 million over four years in a new engineering centre in India.

Bilateral talks and Joint sessions

• With your help, we were able to fortify the Quad in support of an Indo-Pacific region that is free, open, secure, and prosperous. People will recall the Quad in the future and claim that it changed the course of history for the betterment of humanity, said Joe Biden, US President.
• In his address to Congress, Modi warned that “the dark clouds of coercion and confrontation are casting their shadow in the Indo-Pacific.” “One of the main concerns of our partnership has evolved into the stability of the region.”
• The world order is changing in the post-Covid age. The partnership between India and the US would be crucial in this time period for boosting global power. As stated by PM Modi, India and the US are committed to cooperating for world peace, stability, and prosperity.
• The alliance is one of the most important in the world and is the strongest, closest, and most vibrant ever. Together with Prime Minister Modi, President Joe Biden issued a press release.
• “We are a democracy; democracy is ingrained in both India and America. Democracy is ingrained in our DNA as a way of life and is guaranteed by our Constitution. I can identify with the conflicts of tolerance, persuasion, and policy. I can comprehend the argument about ideologies and concepts. PM Narendra Modi tells the joint session of the US Congress, “But I am glad to see you come together to celebrate the links between two great democracies India and the United States.
• On India’s foreign policy, Prime Minister Modi said: “We live by the maxim ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” the world is one family. We interact with the world for the good of everyone. One Earth, One Family, One Future, which will be our G20 Summit theme, embodies the same attitude. Last Monday, all countries endorsed our UN request to erect a wall of honour for the peacekeepers.

Soft Power

• Indian Americans have made significant progress in the US and have consistently found a welcoming home in the nation. Indian Americans have significantly contributed to the development of the US economy and its inclusive society.
• PM Modi discusses the significance of the Vedas in the US Congress. The Vedas are one of the world’s oldest scriptures. They are a great treasure of humanity, composed thousands of years ago.”
• PM Modi on the diversity of India “All global religions have a place here, and we celebrate them all. Diversity is a way of life in India.”
• India’s ambition goes beyond simply focusing on development that helps women. In the words of PM Modi, it is about women leading the development process.
• On the significance of sustainable development, PM Modi noted that Indian culture holds the environment and the planet in the highest regard.

Terrorism and War

Modi said he has spoken explicitly and publicly that “this is not an era of war,” despite the fact that the situation in Ukraine is inflicting immense suffering in the area. However, it is one of negotiation and diplomacy. Which clearly marks that India is taking the neutral stand of Peace and urging others to follow suit as well.

In his speech to the US Congress, Prime Minister Modi demanded that the sponsors of terrorism be brought to justice. In his veiled criticism of Pakistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that there can be “no ifs or buts” when it comes to combating terrorism and calling for action against state sponsors of terrorism.

After 9/11 and more than ten years after the 26/11 in Mumbai, Prime Minister Modi stated in his speech to the Joint Meeting of the US Congress that radicalization and terrorism continue to pose a serious threat to the whole globe.

These philosophies keep changing their names and appearances, but their goals remain the same. There can be no ifs or buts in dealing with terrorism because it is an adversary of humanity. We must defeat all of these organisations that support and spread terrorism, he declared.

A new era for US-India ties

After the White House threw out the red carpet for the Indian Prime Minister, citing agreements on defence and trade geared at limiting China’s influence globally, U.S. President Joe Biden and Narendra Modi heralded a new era in their nations’ ties.

India has traditionally cherished its independence, and the two nations are not formally allied, but Washington wants Delhi to provide a strategic counterbalance to China. Although neither leader specifically criticised Beijing in their official speeches, they made references to the Xi Jinping-led administration.

This State visit comes at a time of War, Coercion, and Aggression, and the partnership of India with the USA is important in bringing the Global South closer to the USA and, more importantly, countering the threat of China in the Indo-Pacific.

By: Aqib Rehman, Research Analyst, GSDN

Since the takeover of Xi Jinping in 2012, China has increasingly asserted itself at the international structure. Some scholars are of the view that China seeks to restructure the international system and its institutions which can cater to the rising aspirations of China.

In the recent times, particularly after Xi’s visit to West Asia in 2016, China has become an important player in this region. From brokering a deal between the Saudi Arabia and Iran to building a strategic partnership with Palestine, China is being perceived as a reliable power by the countries of this region.

So, in this piece, we will examine the China-Palestine relations in a historical perspective and will analyze the latest pact signed between the two nations.

Historical Perspective

The two nations of China and Palestine have a very complex history dating back to several decades. China became a liberated country in the year 1949 and Israel was formed in 1948. As was the case with most of the countries at that time, China also supported the Palestinian cause. It did not establish diplomatic relations with Israel. This position stemmed from its overall foreign policy ideology defined by anti-imperialism stand and as a champion of the independence of the third world countries.

In the 1950s and 1960s, China provided political support to the Palestinian people and recognized Yasir Arafat as the leader of PLO. It also provided some limited assistance to the Palestinian Liberation Organization. This limited support was in the form of limited military training, limited logistical support and ideological guidance.

China’s support for the PLO was primarily through diplomatic channels. It provided a platform for the PLO to voice its grievances and aspirations in international forums. China consistently condemned Israeli occupation and advocated for the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.

During the decades of 1970s to 1990s, China sort to establish diplomatic relations with Palestine and formally recognized PLO as the “sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.” To further their relationship, both nations opened embassies in each other’s territories and exchange of  ambassadors took place.

During these decades China occasionally attempted to facilitate dialogue and peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. It hosted talks between Israeli and Palestinian officials in the 1990s, demonstrating its willingness to contribute to the peace process. However, these mediation efforts did not lead to significant breakthroughs in resolving the conflict.

During the late 1990s and early 2000s, China continued its support to the Palestine cause. However before the signing of Oslo Accords in 1993, China had established diplomatic ties with Israel. This again was in the backdrop of several countries like India de-hyphenating their relationships with Israel and Palestine. After the signing of Oslo Accords Palestinian authority was established and China recognized the PA as the representative of Palestinians and maintained diplomatic relations with it.

China consistently during this period endorsed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It supported the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to achieve a comprehensive and just settlement. China emphasized the need for a solution based on the relevant United Nations resolutions, the Arab Peace Initiative, and the principle of land for peace. However, China was completely against the illegal occupation of Palestinian area by Israel. China also provided some humanitarian aid to the Palestinian refugees.

Recent developments

As China took over Japan as the world’s second largest economy in 2010, it sort to deepen its economic engagement with the world. Under this objective China strengthened its economic cooperation with Palestine, both in Westbank and Gaza strip. To deepen the trade and economic relations, China promoted various initiatives in the fields of infrastructure development and investment.

To develop the infrastructure of Palestine, China heavily invested particularly in the areas of transportation, energy, and telecommunications. For example, China has been involved in the construction of highways, power plants, and the development of broadband networks.

In addition to this, China provided financial aid and assistance to the Palestinian authorities for the economic and infrastructural development. From 2010 onwards, China has offered the Palestinian authorities grants, concessional loans, and technical assistance. This was mainly in the fields of agriculture, healthcare, education and technology.

China has been a significant trading partner for the Palestinian territories. It has increased imports of Palestinian products such as agricultural goods, textiles, and handicrafts, while also promoting Chinese exports to the Palestinian market.

In the year 2013, Xi Jinping unveiled a roadmap of connecting China with the world through the ancient silk root. This plan initially framed as one belt one road(OBOR) was later renamed as belt and road initiative(BRI).

China included Palestine in this ambitious project. Apart from linking Palestine with China, the BRI has the potential to bring additional investment and infrastructure development in the Palestinian authorities.

China’s increased economic engagement with the Palestinian territories reflects its broader strategy of expanding economic ties and influence in the Middle East and other regions. It aligns with China’s emphasis on economic development as a means to promote stability and create mutually beneficial relationships.

However, it is important to note that China’s economic engagement with the Palestinian territories is not without controversy and has been subject to criticism. Some argue that it may perpetuate dependency on China and potentially complicate the political dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Mahmoud Abbas’s recent visit to China

Mahmoud Abbas(Palestinian president) in the month of June was on a state visit to China. He was honored with a 21-gun salute fired on Tiananmen square. And was hosted a dinner by the Chinese president Xi Jinping at the golden hall.

In their talks, both the leaders affirmed their support to each other’s legitimate claims. The most important outcome of this visit was elevating Palestinian and Chinese relationship to the strategic level.

Xi revisited the journey of the friendly relations between the two nations and stressed on the continuous support to the Palestinians. Before committing Chinese complete support to alleviate humanitarian difficulties and carryout reconstruction of Palestine, Xi also affirmed Chinese support to Palestine’s full membership of the international institutions particularly the united nations.

In addition to this, China is prepared to collaborate with Palestine and view the establishment of a strategic partnership as a chance to maintain reciprocal assistance regarding crucial matters, enhance comprehensive friendly cooperation, further develop Belt and Road cooperation, expedite discussions on the China-Palestine free trade agreement, boost exchanges on governance expertise, and promote the longstanding friendship between the two nations.

While acknowledging the amount of sufferings faced by the Palestinian people over more than half a century, Xi put forward a 3 pronged approach to this issue.

First, according to Xi, the primary resolution to the Palestine issue lies in the creation of an independent Palestinian state with complete sovereignty, based on the borders of 1967, and with east Jerusalem as its capital.

Second, it is crucial to address the economic and livelihood requirements of Palestine, and the international community should increase efforts to provide development assistance and humanitarian aid to support Palestine.

Third, it is crucial to maintain the correct trajectory of peace negotiations. The historical status quo of the holy sites in Jerusalem should be upheld, and actions or statements that are excessive or provocative should be avoided. It would be beneficial to convene a comprehensive and influential international peace conference on a large scale, which would create favorable conditions for the resumption of peace talks. Such efforts would contribute significantly to facilitating peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel. China is prepared to play a constructive role in assisting Palestine in achieving internal reconciliation and promoting peace talks.

Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of China’s readiness to collaborate with Palestine and other developing nations, particularly in light of the significant global changes occurring and the evolving dynamics in the Middle East. China aims to enhance solidarity and cooperation, intensify engagement in international and regional matters, promote collective cooperation between China and Arab countries, protect the shared interests of developing nations, and reaffirmed their unwavering support to the principles of international fairness and justice.

Abbas also reaffirmed the Palestine’s support to the policy of one China and to the core interests of Chinese people. He also supported various new international concepts like Global Security Initiative, the Global Development Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by China.

Possible implications

The Shifts in the West Asia in favor of China are taking place rather rapidly. The elevation of China Palestine relationship to the strategic level and Xi’s 3 point proposal for the Palestinian issue is of much significance in many respects.

First significance is the growing role of China in this region. From mediating between Saudi Arab and Iran to the latest proposal on Israel and Palestine issue, China sees itself as a major player capable of resolving the issues of West Asia.

Second is the China’s BRI roadmap. As China is faced with increasing friction with the United States, China wants to deepen its linkages with the other parts of the world. BRI is an important roadmap for China to fulfill its aspirations of connecting with countries of the world without any potential security dilemmas.

Third implication of this visit is China’s unwavering support to the “just and legitimate” Palestinian cause. China aspires a stable West Asia capable of fulfilling the energy needs of China. Any kind of instability within this region has the potential of hurting China’s economic development, therefore, affecting the China’s rise in the international system.

Overall, the visit of Mahmoud Abbas to China achieved significant outcomes. From alleviating their relationship to strategic level, Palestinian authorities also received China’s continuing support for the Palestinian cause. Only the time will test the Xi’s 3-point proposal on the issue between Israel and Palestine. China continues to play an important role in the West Asian region and has the potential to resolve the internal differences provided it does not irk any of the regional players.

By: Srishti Bera, Research Analyst, GSDN

The present turmoil and state of unrest in Tunisia has prevailed from the time President Kais Saied came into power in 2019. Rising inflation, unemployment, poverty due to his form of authoritarian government has left the country in crises lately. Saied’s coup has resulted the Tunisian mass to come down to the streets and protest. There is famine, inflation rising exponentially and shortage of food supply.

Similar disparity in 2011

This is not the first time the country is witnessing such an inflation. The same state of turmoil was seen in Tunisia twelve years back when the country was controlled by the dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The angry, outrageous Tunisian mob was catalysed by the event of a fruit seller who had burnt himself to protest against the corrupted officers.

Today’s scenario in Tunisia is similar to that of Jasmine Revolution of 2011. Civil unrest, civil resistance, food inflation, corruption, high cost of living, protest of the labour union in opposition to autocratic rule was an integral part of the protest. Disparity was appalling. People were unemployed, the qualified people had to do menial work and people were repressed.

The situation did not seem to have improved. There were corrupted officials who were the beneficiaries along the dictator Ben Ali and his family. The economic and social condition in Tunisia under Ben Ali was grim, the people were enraged. The situation was sparked on 4 January 2011. Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor, was harassed by the officers of the Municipality and was frequently asked to pay bribes. On 17 December 2011, Mohamed was harassed and beaten publicly for not carrying permit as a street vendor. In order to protest against the corrupted officers, he set himself ablaze.

On 11January 2012, Mohamed Bouazizi succumbed to the injuries. This day is said to have the marked the Arab Spring in Tunisia. The Jasmine Revolution was characterised by mass protests, civil resistance and finally the overthrow of the authoritarian government of Ben Ali who had captured the power position in 1987. Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia.  

Regressive policies by Kais

Today, Tunisia under Saied, faces the same political and economic tumult. After Kais Saied’s power grab, he has introduced several repressive political measures in order to enjoy the beneficiaries alone like changes in electoral system, constitution, judiciary system, evisceration of right of Tunisian women.

After Kais coup, he got unchecked powers. The Presidential system gave the dictator the prerogative to constitutionalise new laws in judiciary, freedom of press expressions and organisation of political parties. He had suspended the 2014 Constitution and set up the presidential form of government where the power will be confined only in the presidential decree. Under this system the powers and authority vested have no limit and was not time bound. That means this authoritative government can be in power until it is overthrown by public like the Tunisian Revolution in 2011 where Ben Ali was removed from unchecked powers through mass protests and civil resistance. 

He introduced a new presidential system replacing the prevailing system, holding the president as the absolute figure. All the executive power was vested in one hand. He also intervened in the judicial system of the country and further suspended the High Judicial Court. Saied had set up a judicial body again, the power to appoint and the dismiss the judicial officers was granted to him. Again, unreasoned restrictions on travel, freedom of expression and press has been imposed.

The new constitution has foisted arbitrary restrictions on women, on their religious precepts. The women are not entitled to inherit property under the new constitution.

The new presidential system has brought doom. Without paying heed to the economic crisis and instability, President Saied has been passing racist remarks on the illegal immigration of people from the Sub-Saharan region. This is thought to be a tactics of President Saied to divert the ragging people’s attention from the current crises prevailing in Tunisia. The dictator’s anti-migration remarks have made the situation more sensitive and explosive. He has started hate speeches against the immigrants.

According to the National Institute of Statistics, one-third of the Tunisian youth is unemployed. The situation got worse during the Covid 19

Since Tunisia is such a country that is highly dependent upon tourism which has come to a standstill due to skeletal flight service.

Ever since Kais’ coup and the beginning of 2023, a number of leaders from the opposition parties have been arrested. People came down on the streets to protest against the corrupted authorities and blocked roads. The authorities, in order to retaliate, deployed armed forces and have arrested many individuals till date.

By: Aqib Rehman, Research Analyst, GSDN

Although India achieved independence in 1947, it had longstanding connections with the world dating back to ancient times. Its ancient civilization established significant ties with other civilizations such as Greece and Egypt. However, it truly embarked on its independent journey following its liberation from British rule in 1947, which unfortunately resulted in the division of the country into two parts.

Consequently, India had to confront numerous challenges in adapting to the realities of the post-World War II global order. The war had ushered in a new world order that divided the world into two blocs. Therefore, the foremost challenge for Indian foreign policy makers was to determine which bloc India should align with.

However, the foreign policy makers chose otherwise and strictly adhered to the policy of non-alignment by refusing to join either block. Learning from its experiences, India wanted to remain aloof from the world powers to protect its hard-earned independence. But after the end of the Cold War, India carefully adjusted its foreign policy and built close links with the United States of America and other powers of the world. It had developed close relations with China during the early 1950s eventually sabotaged by the Chinese aggression of 1962. During the India Pakistan conflict of 1971 India signed a friendship treaty with the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) which led to a close cooperation between the two countries and was not disturbed by the collapse of USSR.

While the position of India in the international structure remains formidable, it is also faced with numerous challenges from its neighbours like China and Pakistan. To counter the threats posed by them, New Delhi has adopted an independent foreign policy carefully designed without irking any great powers.

To understand the independence of India’s foreign policy this paper uses the case study method and delves with the cases of Quad and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Indian participation. The main argument of this paper is that India’s foreign policy is realistic and is formulated keeping its national interests in view. The membership of Quad and SCO enhance its independence.

In order to understand India’s foreign policy and its independence, we first need to look what does independence of foreign policy entail.

Each state formulates foreign policy to meet specific goals in the international field. That policy is not solely dependent on the wishes and consciences of policy makers. Foreign policy leaders have to decide on foreign policy issues after many considerations. They are influenced by many elements. The factors that influence foreign policy are called the determinants of foreign policy.

To a large extent these factors determine whether the foreign policy of a country is independent or it is constrained by any external factors.

Indian foreign policy has been shaped by the civilisational history of more than 3500 years, the independence struggle of 200 years, the ideology of its founding fathers, geography, economy and the contemporary conditions.

In the ancient times India was in contact with other civilizations of the world. It remained nonaligned during the cold war, sort close relationship with both the superpowers of the cold war and “crossed the Rubicon” at the turn of the 21^st century.

India and the Quad

The 4 democratic countries vis India, Japan, Australia and the United States having found a common ground in the form of democracy came together to form this grouping in order to support the common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security. The group of these countries aims to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region remains free from any security issue, open for all the regional players and all the countries in this region prosper. The idea of Quad was first mooted by late Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe in 2007. However, the idea could not be materialized as Australia pulled out of it, apparently due to Chinese pressure. Finally in 2017, India, Australia, the US and Japan, came together and formed this “quadrilateral” coalition.

The primary objectives of this group included security of the maritime trade, quick response to natural calamities, coercion free Indo-pacific and long-time cooperation on tackling climate change in the region.

Why did India join Quad

As already stated, quad is an important alliance between the four countries who share common vision of countering challenges in this region. In addition to this, India had some specific reasons to join this group. The first among them was the concerns about China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. By joining the Quad, India aims to enhance its security and deter any potential threats to its national interests. India wanted to pose a collective challenge to the threatening rise of China.

Secondly, The Indo-Pacific region is vital for India’s economic growth and trade. The Quad members, collectively representing significant economic powerhouses, can collaborate to promote free trade, open markets, and ensure a rules-based order that benefits all member countries.

Thirdly, Quad is an important group to counter global challenge of terrorism. The Quad members share concerns about terrorism and maritime security threats. By joining the Quad, India cooperates with like-minded countries in intelligence-sharing, joint military exercises, and capacity-building initiatives to combat terrorism and ensure freedom of navigation in the region. The fourth reason is precisely to assert its independence of its foreign policy choices. India sees the Quad as an opportunity to deepen its engagement with other regional powers, aligning its strategic interests with those of the United States, Japan, and Australia. The forum provides a platform for dialogue, coordination, and cooperation on various regional and global issues. The fourth point highlights India’s interest in strengthening regional cooperation through its participation in the Quad. By being a member of this group, India identifies itself with the other countries of this region who believe in the principles of free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Through this alliance India seeks to promote the vision of freedom of navigation, respect for territorial integrity, and peaceful resolution of disputes in this region and the world. Secondly this alliance helps India in deepening its diplomatic engagement in this region. It regularly coordinates with the partners including the discussions on regional and global issues of common interest through high-level meetings, consultations, and strategic discussions. Quad also helps India in multilateral diplomacy. It enhances its diplomatic power by engaging with several countries. It participates in different joint military exercises with other nations, participates in multilateral forums like the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), and collaborates on various infrastructure and development projects. These initiatives demonstrate the Quad’s commitment to inclusive regional cooperation.

India and the SCO

India became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on June 9, 2017. The decision to join the SCO was primarily motivated by several factors like regional engagement, economic opportunities, counterterrorism cooperation and geopolitical considerations.

On one side India is cooperating with the countries like USA and Japan through the Quad, while on the other side it is a full-fledged member of SCO where it cooperates with the countries like China and Russia. The geopolitics behind joining SCO was seen as an opportunity for India to expand its diplomatic presence in the region and balance its relationships with major powers. The SCO serves as a platform for dialogue and engagement with countries like China, Russia, and Central Asian nations, allowing India to assert its interests and contribute to shaping regional dynamics. The first important reason of participating in the SCO is about balancing the relationship between the great powers. Quad, which is dominated by USA is facing a mounting challenge from the rising China. India has a close relationship with the US and China is its neighbour. Therefore, it neither wants to shift away from the US nor irk China.

To balance the relationship, India joined the multilateral organisation of SCO. The SCO provides India with an opportunity to expand its diplomatic presence and influence in the Eurasian region. As a member, India actively participates in SCO meetings, summits, and working groups, contributes to discussions on various regional issues. This enables India to assert its interests, promote its foreign policy priorities, and enhance its regional profile. In addition to this, China is slowly gaining favours in the South Asian region. In order to keep that in check India needs to counter its influence in this region. SCO not only helps in engaging with China and Russia, but it also enables India to foster its diplomatic ties with other Central Asian countries. The SCO provides India with greater access to the resources, markets, and economic opportunities in Central Asia. India’s interest in energy cooperation, trade diversification, and connectivity projects aligns with the potential offered by the region. By participating in SCO initiatives and mechanisms, India can deepen economic engagement with Central Asian countries and tap into the region’s potential for trade and investment.

Independent nature of India’s foreign policy

India’s foreign policy is generally guided by its national interests, strategic objectives, and the principles of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. India has pursued an independent foreign policy since its independence in 1947. While India maintains relationships with various countries and engages in regional and international forums, it strives to maintain its independence and make decisions that it deems best for its own national interests.

Multi-alignment is one of the basic features of India’s modern foreign policy. It strongly opposes any sort of arm-twisting by any power. It engages with a range of countries by focusing on its own national interests. India maintains strategic partnerships and engages in dialogue with various countries, including the United States, Russia, China, Japan, and European nations, among others. This approach allows India to diversify its relationships and leverage different opportunities. Take for example one member country of Quad and SCO respectively. India has a strategic relationship with the United States of America and Russia. These relations are time-tested and are based on shared interests and mutual cooperation. While both U.S. and Russia are in a conflicting relationship with one another, India enjoys sweet relations with them by focusing on its own national interests.

India is committed to the strategic autonomy of its foreign policy. This means it believes in not closely aligning with any particular country or bloc such that its national interests are compromised. This approach helps it in making its own assessment of the international situations and take decisions based on its own understanding. As analysed in the Quad and SCO, it can be argued that India engages with diverse countries to advance its own interests. This approach also helps in managing potential differences. India places a high value on its sovereignty and independence in decision-making. It aims to protect and promote its national interests while respecting the sovereignty of other nations. India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy enables it to maintain control over its own destiny, set its foreign policy priorities, and navigate international affairs in a manner that aligns with its national values and aspirations.

Balancing the relationship between Quad and SCO

India while enjoying close relations with diverse countries needs to walk a tightrope to balance its relations with Quad and SCO. Till now India has been successful in managing this situation. India firstly focuses on diverse objectives of Quad and SCO. Both the groupings have varying objectives. Quad focuses on regional security, maritime cooperation, and promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific, while SCO aims to enhance regional connectivity, engagement on counterterrorism, and economic cooperation. India cooperates with both groups realising their different objectives and opportunities they offer. Secondly, India carefully analyses its engagement with both Quad and SCO by ensuring that it does not become dependent on any of the group. It makes sure its national interests are not compromised while participating in these groups. Thirdly India actively engages with both the Quad and the SCO, seeking areas of cooperation and convergence.

In the Quad, India collaborates with like-minded countries to enhance regional security, maritime domain awareness, and infrastructure development. In the SCO, India participates in various mechanisms to contribute to regional connectivity, counterterrorism efforts, and economic cooperation. By engaging with both groups, India can leverage the strengths and opportunities presented by each forum. Fourthly, present age is the age of connectivity. For India both Quad and SCO are important to enhance its connectivity with both central Asian and the Indo-Pacific region. Quad and SCO provide India with the opportunity to connect with both the regions of the world.

Conclusion

Engagement with the Quad and the SCO demonstrates India’s flexibility and pragmatism in foreign policy. India assesses the opportunities and challenges presented by these groups and engages with them based on its own interests and the evolving geopolitical dynamics. This approach allows India to adapt to changing circumstances, pursue its national priorities, and maintain its independence in decision-making. The participation in such opposing groups and diverse countries reflects India’s growing independence in its foreign policy choices. It cooperates with Quad and SCO to foster its own economic, strategic, geopolitical and other national interests. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Indian foreign policy is independent and is clearly visible through its participation in the groups like the Quad and the SCO.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

The water crisis in Uruguay is a pressing issue that requires immediate attention by both the government and the international community. Due to the country’s geographical location, Uruguay faces a unique set of challenges in managing its water resources, which in turn has significant geopolitical implications. The stated water deficit is the result of a severe drought that has affected the whole country of Uruguay and is caused by a lack of rain. According to most sources, Montevideo’s present stocks of fresh potable water will last around 18 days under current conditions. According to authorities, Uruguay’s water shortage is the worst in 74 years. It is harming thousands of families and causing poor water quality.

Backdrop

Uruguay is situated in the La Plata basin, which is shared by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. This region is prone to extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and storms, which have a significant impact on water availability and quality. In recent years, Uruguay has experienced severe droughts, which have led to the depletion of its water resources, affecting both urban and rural areas. The situation is further exacerbated by climate change, which is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Root problem

Two critical reservoirs in the nation have been drained to the point that salt levels are now more than double what the World Health Organisation recommends. As a result, the government has begun introducing salty water into the public water supply. As a result, Uruguay’s tap water has grown too salty to drink. The situation is critical, and residents have begun a search for subterranean water.

According to the state water provider Obras Sanitarias del Estado (OSE), water levels in the Paso Severino reservoir, which supplies more than half of Uruguay’s 3.5 million inhabitants, are at “historical lows,” at roughly 10% of capacity.

According to the most recent statistics, it contains around 6.2 million cubic metres of water, which is significantly less than the monthly average of 60 million. Every day, around 650,000 cubic metres are required to feed the capital.

Due to dwindling fresh water reserves in the country’s major reservoir, the public water corporation was compelled to mix supplies with water from the River Plate estuary in late April, resulting in extremely high levels of sodium and chlorides.

Geopolitical Implications

The water crisis in Uruguay has significant implications for the country’s geopolitical position. Uruguay is heavily dependent on hydropower, with over 80% of its electricity coming from hydroelectric plants. The depletion of water resources has had a severe impact on the country’s energy security, leading to power shortages and blackouts. This has not only affected the day-to-day lives of Uruguayans but has also had implications for the country’s economy, which is heavily reliant on energy-intensive industries such as agriculture and manufacturing.

This small, prosperous South American country is not alone in its suffering. Historically hot and dry temperatures are wreaking havoc on crops and rattling economies throughout the Southern Cone. In the face of global climate change, the area is warming faster than the rest of the world. Precipitation decreased to half the average over the latter four months of 2022, the lowest amount in 35 years.

 Furthermore, the water crisis in Uruguay has implications for the country’s relations with its neighbours. As the La Plata basin is a shared resource, any actions taken by one country can have a significant impact on the others. For example, the construction of dams or other water infrastructure in Argentina or Brazil can affect the flow of water downstream, which in turn can affect Uruguay’s water resources. This has led to tensions between Uruguay and its neighbours, with disputes over water usage and management.

The issue is rampant in Barrio Nuevo Amanecer, Sosa’s neighbourhood on the outskirts of Montevideo. In a country where the drinking water is regarded as among the finest in the world, the expense of purchasing bottled water is straining family budgets.

 Crisis Management

 The Uruguayan water problem has had a variety of geopolitical ramifications. To address the water crisis in Uruguay, the government has taken a number of steps, including investing in water infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and encouraging the use of alternative energy sources. However, more needs to be done, both domestically and internationally, to ensure the sustainable management of water resources in Uruguay and the wider La Plata basin.

The government is currently subsidising bottled water in Montevideo and other cities after a three-year drought caused the South American country’s greatest drinking water crisis in at least a half-century. According to Public Health Minister Karina Rando, officials are recommending pregnant women and others suffering from certain chronic conditions avoid drinking tap water. The government declared that it will increase welfare payments for pregnant women, children, and the sick for 30 days in order for them to purchase two litres of bottled water each day.

The water crisis in Uruguay is a complex issue that requires a coordinated response from the government, civil society, and the international community. The crisis has significant geopolitical implications, affecting not only Uruguay but also its neighbours in the La Plata basin. To ensure the sustainable management of water resources in the region, it is essential that all stakeholders work together to develop innovative solutions that address the challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather events.

The situation has served as a wake-up call for Uruguayans, who are accustomed to hearing about water shortages on the worldwide news rather than on their doorstep. National elections will be held next year, and the crisis gives an opportunity for change. Given the present public uproar, water quality and conservation will be top-of-mind issues in the next elections, with political parties across the board under pressure to give real remedies.

By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Kosovo has been in the news recently because of the violent clashes that took place between the ethnic Serbs and the Albanian police. Kosovo has been a disputed area between the Serbs and Albanians. Kosovo declared itself an independent nation in 17 February 2008 and almost 100 countries have formally recognised the independence of Kosovo, but Serbia has not accepted it. They consider Kosovo to be part of their area despite the ethnic ratio of the nation. Kosovo has around 96% of Albanians and only 4% of Serbians living there. This has come out as a disadvantage to Serbia as the majority population wants to be independent from Serbia. This article seeks to understand the history behind the instability in Kosovo and its present-day scenario.

Where is Kosovo and why is it a disputed area? A Historical background

Kosovo is a small, isolated country in the Balkans in southern-eastern Europe. Its neighbours are Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Montenegro. Many believe it to be the origin of the Serb people. However, only 6% of Kosovo’s 1.8 million residents are Serbian, compared to 92% of Albanians. The others are Turks, Gorans, Bosniaks, and Roma.

Kosovo was part of the Serbian Empire and then the Ottoman Empire during the Middle Ages, because of which the country has been influenced by so many cultures and religious practices. With the rise of nationalism in the Balkan region in the 19th and 20th centuries, the Ottoman Empire collapsed and it led to the formation of independent sovereign states like Serbia and Albania.

Serbia was one of the six republics that became part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia after the Second World War. Kosovo was also part of it as an autonomous province. Yugoslavia was faced with political and economic turmoil in the 1980s and 1990s which set off racial tensions.  Slobodan Milosevic, the leader of Serbia, abolished Kosovo’s autonomy in 1989, setting off protests amongst the ethnic Albanian population. Early in the 1990s, as Yugoslavia started to fall apart, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina all proclaimed their independence, starting the Yugoslav Wars.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (made up mostly of Serbian forces) and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), a paramilitary group of ethnic Albanians fighting for Kosovo’s independence, engaged in combat during the Kosovo War.

This led to the displacement of thousands of people as well as loss of lives too. There were also reports of human rights violations reported during the war and events of ethnic cleansing also took place. When the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) launched a military operation against Yugoslav objectives in 1999, Milosevic was eventually forced to remove Yugoslav soldiers from Kosovo.

Following the conflict, NATO forces were tasked with keeping security in the area while Kosovo was placed under United Nations (UN) administration.

Numerous attempts have been initiated to solve the problems peacefully, such as the discussions that happened between Kosovo and Serbia encouraged by the European Union in 2011. The conversation was to restore matters and resolve issues related to shared interests, this led to the signing of a few agreements, such as the creation of the Association of Serb-majority municipalities and integrated border management.

However, tensions between Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority and the Serb minority, who live there, continue, especially in the northern half of the nation. Political, economic, cultural, and historical resentments between the two sides add to the difficulty of the issue.

Kosovo War and NATO

In 1989, the leader of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, altered the ruling of Kosovo to Belgrade, which was Serbia’s capital. This led to a lot of tensions between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Milosevic’s policy of ethnic cleansing led to large scale displacement of refugees both inside and outside the region.

In 1999, many diplomatic decisions and talks were set forward but the failure of all these led to NATO intervening. NATO launched an air campaign to halt the humanitarian crisis that was spreading over Kosovo. The mission was called ‘Operation Allied Force’ and it started on 24 March 1999 and then later was suspended on 10 June 1999 and it lasted for a total of 78 days. On 10 June 1999, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia withdrew military, police and paramilitary forces and accepted deployment of an international civil and security presence.

Despite many strains, NATO held together the war for 78 days and at first the targets were the air defences of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, then gradually NATO is said to have made use of advanced and precision- guided technology in order to avoid civilian casualties.

NATO deployed a multinational peacekeeping force called the Kosovo Force, whose members belong to NATO members as well as non-member countries, to provide a security mechanism for Kosovo. They also gave humanitarian aid in the region by delivering aid, helping refugees and displaced people.

NATO still maintains its role as the peacekeeping force in Kosovo and continues to maintain Kosovo Force. Its main role is to essentially maintain peace and security in the region. NATO works closely with all the authorities, organisations, and institutions in order to contain the security issues in the country. NATO is also said to be involved in capacity building programs as well as initiating dialogues between both nations.

Clashes and Consequences

The relations between the Serbs and the Albanians have been strained for a couple of years now. Recently, with a new election that happened, things escalated. The Serbs have boycotted the elections held in the northern region as the mayors who are elected are Albanians only. The turnout was less than 4%, which triggered protests from the Serbs majority that lived there. These four mayors must then be transported with the help of the Kosovo police to their office. This was met with protests as these elections were boycotted by the local Serbs, which led to the Albanians winning them with less than 4% turnout. The tensions began with the Kosovo police forces raiding the municipality building. The Serbs tried to stop the mayor from taking over the office and the police responded to them with tear gas. The Serbs then staged a protest in front of the municipality buildings, which caused problems between the Serbs and Kosovo peacekeepers and local police.

Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti and his government officially installed all the elected Albanian mayors without trying to control the situation in Kosovo. The government also ignored calls by the United States and European Union, which have always supported Kosovo’s independence from Serbia since its independence in 2008.

The Kosovo Force explained how it was faced with brutal and unprovoked attacks when they were trying to take control of a hostile crowd as the demonstrators clashed with the police and forced their way inside the government building in Zvecan, a northern town in Kosovo. And at least 30 NATO peacekeeping forces were injured in the protests that aimed at the removal of the newly elected Albanian mayors.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said 52 Serbs were hurt and a few of them seriously injured by gunshots from the Albanian police.

NATO has strongly condemned these unprovoked attacks on the Kosovo Force troops and said how unacceptable the whole situation is now.

While on the other hand, the Serbs are demanding the withdrawal of the Kosovo Police Forces, whose presence seems to cause a problem, as it has ignited protests in northern Kosovo and the Albanian mayors who they do not want as their representatives.

Serbia is backed by its strong ally, Russia, and even during the protests many demonstrations showing clear signs of Russia’s backing were showcased by Serbia. Russia has always supported Serbia on the issue of Kosovo and uses its veto power in the United Nations Security Council to block any decisions that seem to cause problems for Serbia. Russia has trade agreements with Serbia and often invests in its economy and provides them with infrastructure too. Russia also supplies Serbia with arms and ammunition as and when needed. And when issues of diplomacy arise, Russia always favours decisions that hide the interests of Serbia.

This complex dynamics of relationship between Russia and Serbia along with China creates problems during discussions and dialogues in the United Nations. Nations seek out their national interest only and this leads to clashes between various countries and their national policy.

International dialogues are in the need of the hour as clashes are erupting between both sides. The 1999 war was an example of the lengths both nations could go to achieve their national interests. And so, it is essentially important to reach consensus on this problem as soon as possible in order to avoid any problems in the future.

Both Kosovo and Serbia want to be members of the EU and so reaching a consensus on this issue is needed for both by the nations and Serbian intervention in Kosovo would mean a clash with NATO, which could have far-reaching consequences too. Serbia and Kosovo need to reach agreements in a diplomatic way in order to avoid instability in the region. 

By: Khushbu Ahlawat, Research Analyst, GSDN

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the leaders of Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) met in person for the first time in Xi’an, China. This meeting was held on May 19, 2023 and was a part of the China-Central Asia Summit, which has occurred virtually since 2020. Xi’an, historically known as Chang’an, is an essential city in Shaanxi Province and marks the eastern end of the ancient Silk Road. The summit aimed to strengthen the relationship between China and Central Asia. The leaders discussed various issues and areas of cooperation. They emphasized the importance of trust and support among the countries, especially concerning sovereignty, independence, and long-term development. They also highlighted the need for mutual economic development, supported by China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The leaders discussed connectivity, energy cooperation, green innovation, and regional peace. They aimed to build a closer community between China and Central Asia for the benefit of their people.

After the summit, the leaders released a joint statement called the China-Central Asia Xi’an Declaration, which outlined their shared vision for stronger ties. The declaration covered many areas of cooperation, including economics, trade, energy, climate change, and cultural links.

At the Summit, global leaders discussed various issues, including Russia’s role and support for Ukraine. While Russia’s influence in Central Asia is significant, China’s influence is also growing. References to “national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity” in the declaration were crucial for all the Central Asian countries, and it was not directly aimed at Russia.

The five countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) will strengthen people-to-people exchanges in various areas such as sports, archaeology, tourism, medicine, and healthcare. They will focus on the Year of Culture and Arts success for the China and Central Asian Countries, establish culture centers in each other’s countries, promote mutual visits, encourage youth exchanges, and implement the “Cultural Silk Road” program. China will continue to offer government scholarships to young students from Central Asian countries, establish more Luban Workshops and traditional medicine centers in Central Asia, and assist in developing highly skilled individuals.

The five countries are committed to fighting against terrorism, separatism, extremism, drug trafficking, and organized crimes. They will strengthen cooperation in bio-security, cyber-security, and disaster relief areas. They will also support the Afghan people in maintaining security, achieving stability, and rebuilding their country. Together, they aim to create a peaceful Central Asia without conflicts.

The five countries of Central Asia will follow the rules and principles of the United Nations Charter. They will strongly support working together with multiple nations and upholding international laws and norms that govern how countries relate to each other. They aim to ensure fairness and justice in global affairs and make the international order and system of global governance fairer and more equal. All sides have shown their support and readiness to implement initiatives for global development, global security, and the progress of human civilization, recognizing their importance for world peace and development.

China’s Push for Global Leadership

China is actively seeking global leadership, and the summit in Central Asia is a significant step toward that goal. It occurs alongside the G7 meeting and aims to enhance China’s regional influence. This summit holds excellent importance for Beijing.

Central Asia is strategically important for China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, a massive project spearheaded by President Xi Jinping. China is expected to focus on securing agreements for major infrastructure projects during the summit, such as constructing a railway line connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan worth $6 billion and expanding the gas pipeline linking Central Asia to China. These efforts reflect China’s intensified push to increase its global leadership and expand its economic and geopolitical influence.

Trade and Investment

China plans to enhance trade and investment with Central Asia by upgrading bilateral investment agreements and increasing cross-border freight volume. Chinese-funded businesses in Central Asia will be encouraged to create more jobs, build warehouses, and launch a special train service to promote tourism. To support Central Asian development, China will provide 26 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) in financing support and grants. Two-way trade between China and Central Asia reached a record $70 billion last year, with Kazakhstan leading at $31 billion. China aims to deepen its regional ties for food and energy security.

China intends to accelerate the construction of Line D of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline. It also calls for increased oil and gas trade, development of energy cooperation, including new energy sources, and peaceful use of nuclear energy. In the long term, China supports the construction of a cross-Caspian Sea international transport corridor and strengthening transport hubs for China-Europe freight train services.

During this summit, the five countries of Central Asia officially launched the China-Central Asia Summit Mechanism. They have decided that China and Central Asian countries will take turns hosting the summit every two years. The next summit will be held in Kazakhstan in 2025. The countries will further develop this mechanism and establish a permanent office in China. They will focus on transportation, trade, investment, industry, agriculture, energy, customs, and people-to-people exchanges. They are committed to taking solid and practical actions to promote comprehensive and deep cooperation among the six countries. President Xi expressed his satisfaction with the progress made during the summit, considering it a positive beginning for cooperation. He believes that with continued collaboration and determination, China’s relations with Central Asian countries will advance steadily, overcoming challenges like a ship navigating rough seas. This cooperation will bring new energy and vitality to the development and revitalization of all six countries and contribute to peace and stability in the region.

What’s driving China’s stepped-up engagement with Central Asian states?

Several factors drive China’s increased engagement with Central Asian states. Firstly, hosting the summit in Xian, which holds historical significance as the starting point of the ancient Silk Road, allows China to highlight its deep historical connections with the region. China aims to expand regional connectivity and enhance economic ties with Central Asia.

Additionally, China seeks to strengthen its role in security affairs in Central Asia. President Xi Jinping pledged support for enhancing the region’s law enforcement and defense capabilities, aligning with China’s Global Security Initiative. This move positions China to play a more direct role in security and economic matters, especially with Russia facing limitations due to its involvement in Ukraine.

Furthermore, with the United States reducing its presence in the region after withdrawing from Afghanistan, China sees an opportunity to increase its regional influence. Central Asian countries, concerned about Russian irredentism, are looking to China as an alternative security partner.

Overall, China’s stepped-up engagement with Central Asian states reflects its ambition to expand its economic and geopolitical influence and fill the void left by other global powers.

What do Central Asian states want out of their relationship with China?

Central Asian states aim to pursue a “multi-vector” foreign policy that maintains good relations with Russia, China, and the West while avoiding taking sides in the extraordinary power competition. They seek a balanced approach that maximizes their connectivity to the outside world without becoming overly dependent on any single country.

In the past, Russia has dominated security and economic relationships with the region, but with its focus on Ukraine, its influence is shifting. China is gaining geopolitical prominence, but Central Asian countries want to ensure they don’t become overly reliant on China either. They desire productive trade relationships with all their neighbors, respect for their sovereignty, and security assistance that allows for solid self-defense without getting entangled in great power rivalries.

Ultimately, Central Asian states strive for a Goldilocks situation, where they can maintain diverse trade ties, uphold their sovereignty, and receive security support that helps them defend themselves without becoming pawns in the competition between major powers.

Conclusion

So, China’s support for Central Asia is a way to counter the accusations made by the United States about its coercive diplomacy. In simpler terms, China is trying to show that it has friendly and cooperative relationships with other countries in the region to balance the criticism it receives from the United States for its strong-arm tactics in international affairs. By strengthening ties with Central Asian countries, China aims to demonstrate its positive engagement and cooperation in the international arena.