By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Myanmar has been hit hard by the Mocha cyclone on May 14, 2023, leaving many people dead and the toll is said to be on the rise. India has been in the forefront of ensuring a relief operation in place for the citizens of Myanmar. It has launched an operation named ‘Operation Karuna’ to send help and secure goods for the people of Myanmar. Four Indian navy ships arrived to provide supplies to the people, being the first responders to the cyclone-hit nation.

Destruction and Devastation

Myanmar on May 14, 2023 was hit by a cyclone named Mocha. It not only hit Myanmar but parts of Bangladesh too. The cyclone was recorded as a severe one by the Indian Metrological Department and a ‘Super Cyclone’ by the global weather website, Zoom Earth. The storm emerged in the Bay of Bengal and has been recorded as the strongest one in all seasons in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea since 1982 with a wind speed of 277 kmph. It was named ‘Mocha’ after a suggestion by Yemen.

According to Myanmar’s state broadcaster MRTV, a woman died when a building collapsed in a neighbouring hamlet, and thirteen people were killed when a monastery collapsed in a village in Rathedaung district north of Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine.

The cyclone hit on the weekend, leaving behind a trail of destruction for the people in Myanmar. The Dhaka Tribune reports that 81 people have lost their lives in the cyclone while at least 46 people have died in Rakhine state village of Bu ma and nearby areas of Khaung Doke Kar, which were home to the persecuted Rohingya minority.

The head of Bu Ma village explains how there are hundreds of people missing and homes destroyed. The worst hit regions of Rakhine house the largest refugee camp in the world, the Cox’s Bazaar.

Operation Karuna

India was the first responder to the cyclone hitting Myanmar. Indian navy ships, namely, Indian Naval Ship (INS) Shivalik, INS Kamorta and INS Savitri arrived at Yangon on May 18, 2023 with supplies. The fourth ship arrived on May 19, 2023 and carried food, clothes, tents, essential medicine, sanitary products etc. The supplies were immediately sent to the Rakhine and the worst hit regions.

As a country with principles of morality and ethics, India has always helped its neighbours through such crises and been at the forefront of such issues and leading the region. Even this time, too, India was the first responder to the cyclone hitting Myanmar. The Chief Minister of the Yangon region received the first shipment of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) supplies from Indian Ambassador Vinay Kumar in Myanmar.

“More than 40 tonnes of HADR materials brought by INS Shivalik, INS Kamorta and INS Savitri included emergency food items, tents, portable generators, clothes, water pumps, medicines, tarpaulins, hygiene and sanitary items, wheel chairs, face masks etc,” by the Indian Embassy in Myanmar. The fourth ship also bought more HADR materials as well as emergency materials.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, “India extends a hand of friendship to the people of Myanmar affected by Cyclone Mocha. Operation Karuna is underway. Three Indian Navy ships carrying relief equipment reached Yangon today. A fourth ship will be reaching tomorrow. The ships are carrying emergency food items, tents, essential medicines, water pumps, portable generators, clothes, sanitary and hygiene items, etc. India continues to be the first responder in the region,”.

On May 18, 2023, in the presence of Bo Htay, Mayor of Yangon, Major General Zaw Hein, Yangon Regional Commander, Rear Admiral Naing Min Kyaw, Commander, Naval Training Command, Commodore Kyaw Lin Zaw, Deputy Commander, Central Naval Command, and Captain Thet Win Hlaing, Commander, No. 1 Fleet, Ambassador Shri Vinay Kumar presented the first shipment of HADR materials to Soe Thein, Chief Minister, Yangon

The fleet of four ships is moving a variety of necessities, including consumable and non-consumable goods. Along with 16 medical pallets, the cargo consists of 14 pallets of essential supplies, both food and non-edible. Notably, INS Gharial has a mobile medical facility that can house a fully functional hospital with a 120-bed capacity. The medical pallets include a variety of necessary goods, including intravenous fluids for common infections and ailments, first aid kits, antibiotics, antihistamines, and pain relievers.

The provisions cover a variety of food items, including instant noodles, rice, milk powder, potable water, ready-to-eat meals, high-energy biscuits, Multi Micronutrient Food, cooking oil, sugar, canned fish, canned meat, tea, salt, spices, and other accessories.

The non-food supplies being shipped include tarpaulins, tents, bleaching powder, disinfectant liquid, soaps, detergent powder, hygiene kits, dignity kits, crutches, wheelchairs, chainsaws, paper towels, shirts, pillows, sandals, fuel tanks, solar lamps, generators that are portable, water pumps, and various other necessary supplies.

India- Myanmar Ties 

Historical, cultural, and strategic linkages define the complicated and multidimensional relationship between India and Myanmar. Since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, the two nations have maintained diplomatic ties. India and Myanmar have cooperated in a number of areas throughout the years, including trade, security, energy, infrastructure development, and intercultural exchange.

Bilateral ties greatly benefit from economic collaboration. India is a big investor in industries like oil and gas, power, telecommunications, and agriculture, as well as one of Myanmar’s main trading partners. Through projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, efforts have been made to improve connectivity between the two nations.

Another crucial component of the partnership is security cooperation. Both nations have collaborated to confront shared issues like transnational insurgency, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling. Border security and regional stability are made possible by cooperation between their respective armed forces and intelligence services.

Close links between the two countries have been cultivated through cultural and interpersonal exchanges. Due to historical ties between India and Buddhism, which is practised by a sizeable section of the population of Myanmar, pilgrimage travel between the two nations is very popular. The ties between the people of India and Myanmar have been further enhanced by educational and cultural interactions.

However, the partnership has also encountered difficulties and complexity, particularly because of internal political dynamics in Myanmar and issues with human rights. India has successfully engaged Myanmar while advancing democratic principles and human rights.

The “Act East” policy of India has recently placed a fresh emphasis on improving ties with Myanmar and other Southeast Asian nations. As part of India’s broader regional engagement, this strategy aims to enhance economic connections, foster cultural ties, and increase strategic cooperation with Myanmar.

In general, India and Myanmar keep working to deepen their bilateral ties and explore new opportunities for collaboration while managing the changing regional dynamics and tackling common challenges in a way that is beneficial to both parties.

India’s Foreign Policy and Crisis management

India’s foreign policy, which involves aiding its neighbours, is founded on the ideas of regional cooperation, mutual advancement, and cultivating cordial ties with surrounding nations. The importance of a secure and prosperous neighbourhood to India’s own security, economic development, and regional stability is acknowledged by this policy.

India takes a comprehensive approach to helping its neighbours and engages in numerous forms of collaboration. Giving developmental assistance, which includes funding, infrastructural projects, technical know-how, and capacity-building initiatives, is a crucial component. These programmes seek to aid the socio-economic development of neighbouring nations, encourage inclusive growth, and deal with issues like poverty, inadequate healthcare and education, and weak infrastructure.

India also actively participates in diplomatic initiatives to advance regional peace, stability, and conflict resolution. India works to promote a peaceful and cooperative regional environment by facilitating peaceful resolution to disputes and conflicts between neighbouring nations through dialogue, negotiations, and mediation.

Another essential element of India’s strategy for helping its neighbours is trade and economic cooperation. India wants to improve commercial ties on a bilateral and regional level, encourage international investment, and advance regional economic integration. India actively participates in regional economic cooperation frameworks to promote economic growth and regional integration, such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

India places a strong emphasis on cultural diplomacy and people-to-people interactions to improve ties with its neighbours. This includes easing simpler travel and visa rules, cultural exchange programmes, educational scholarships, and tourism promotion. Through such projects, the people of India and its neighbours hope to deepen understanding, spread goodwill, and create enduring bonds.

India’s assistance to its neighbours is not just motivated by self-interest; it is also motivated by a feeling of shared history, cultural affinities, and the conviction that regional fates are interwoven. India works to establish an environment that is favourable for group progress, security, and prosperity, benefiting both India and its neighbours, by fostering collaboration, development, and stability in its neighbourhood.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

As two of the largest countries in the world, China and India have long been recognised as significant players in the global geopolitical arena. However, in recent years, tensions between the two countries have escalated, leading many to question whether China poses a threat to India. The factors that contribute to this relationship are complex.

Border and Depsang Plain Issue

One of the main issues that has strained the relationship between China and India in recent years is the border dispute between the two countries. The border between India and China is one of the longest in the world, spanning over 4,000 kilometres, and has been a source of tension for decades. Since 1962, the two countries have had a prolonged history of disputed territory. Since then, there have been several skirmishes and standoffs between the two countries, and tensions have remained high. The Depsang Plains, a 972-square-kilometre area at an elevation of over 16,400 feet, continue to be a key source of friction amid the current tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) following the Galwan Valley incident in 2020, with India stepping up its defence and the Chinese expanding their presence in the region. The conflict in Depsang Plain, which is crucial to India both strategically and geographically, predates the present LAC issue. The Depsang Plains are significant because of their position. The eastern Ladakh region, which is also a part of India’s Sub-Sector North, poses the biggest military and strategic danger to the plains.

The Depsang Plains are more of a defensive feature than a strategically important attacking location.

Regional Dominance

Another factor that contributes to the strained relationship between China and India is their competition for regional dominance. Both countries are seeking to expand their influence in the region, and this has led to a series of diplomatic and economic tussles.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project that aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa, has been viewed with suspicion by India, which sees it as an attempt by China to gain strategic leverage in the region. India’s sovereignty is directly threatened by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which reaches Pakistan-occupied Kashmir through Gilgit Baltistan’s Karakoram Highway. Not only this, but also in Myanmar, China, under its BRI, has invested to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor with strategic infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and ports that will connect Kunming, China’s Yunnan Province’s capital, to Mandalay and then to Yangon and Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State. Projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and theKaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project aim to enhance connectivity and trade links between India’s north-eastern region and Southeast Asian countries and tackle the Chinese sphere of influence.

India’s own efforts to expand its influence in the region, such as its Act East Policy, have been met with resistance from China. India has also expanded the domain of its policy to include Pacific Island countries, where China has strategic interests. Act East policy also emphasises enhancing trade and investment ties between India and Southeast Asian countries where China is investing under its BRI. Efforts are being made to promote trade through initiatives like the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreementand theRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Economic ties and trade

Despite these tensions, there are also significant economic ties between China and India. China is India’s largest trading partner, and the two countries have significant economic interdependence. India and China have been major trading partners for several years. Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown significantly, reaching a peak of around $92.68 billion in 2020. Although there have been calls for a boycott of Chinese goods and products in India. Moreover, to counter the Chinese manufacturers, the Make in India initiative was taken, which has seen an overwhelming response, in which not only appliances or small products are being made but also the air defence system “Akash”, the light combat aircraft “Tejas,” and the INS Kalvari.

However, there has been a trade imbalance heavily favouring China, with India importing more goods than it exports. The trade deficit has been a persistent concern for India, as it has negatively affected domestic industries. The bilateral commerce between China and India increased by 90.14%, or 12.87% per year on average.

The total value of commerce with China rose by 8.47% annually in 2022 to reach USD 136.26 billion. However, this economic relationship has also been a source of tension, with India accusing China of engaging in unfair trade practises and dumping cheap goods in the Indian market.

Collaborations and Initiatives

Despite the tensions, India and China have continued to engage in various collaborative initiatives. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a multilateral development bank initiated by China, has seen participation from both India and China. Additionally, the BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) forum has provided a platform for discussions on economic cooperation among member countries. G-20 and SCO presidency by India, where China and India are heavy backers of the groupings. But China’s actions of boycotting the meetings of the G-20 held in Kashmir do show the true nature of their hypocrisy, where they are occupying Aksai-Chin, which is a part of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

Threat Perception

So, does China pose a threat to India? The answer is complicated and depends on how one defines “threat.” While there are certainly tensions between the two countries, it is unlikely that China poses an existential threat to India. Both countries are nuclear powers, and a war between them would have catastrophic consequences for the entire region. Furthermore, both countries have demonstrated a willingness to engage in diplomacy and negotiation to resolve their differences.

But there are certainly areas where China’s actions could be viewed as threatening India’s interests. China’s growing influence in the region, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, could pose a challenge to India’s own efforts to expand its influence. Similarly, China’s military modernization and growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean could be viewed as a potential threat to India’s security. Ultimately, the relationship between China and India is complex and multifaceted, and any analysis of whether China poses a threat to India must take into account the various factors that contribute to this relationship.

The relationship between China and India is complicated, marked by both cooperation and competition. While tensions between the two countries have escalated since the 1962 Sino-India War, it is unlikely that China will pose an existential threat to India in recent times. However, there are certainly areas where China’s actions could be viewed as threatening to India’s interests, and it is important for both countries to engage in diplomacy and negotiation to resolve their differences and build a stable and peaceful relationship. And if that is not suitable, then in that case of action, India needs to maintain an aggressive and protective stand regarding its territory and policy towards China.

By: Aqib Rehman, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Quad summit between the top leadership of India, Australia, Japan and the United States of America was canceled as the US President Joe Biden cut short his Asia trip due to the ongoing debt ceiling crises in America. However, the leaders met in Hiroshima to primarily discuss the Indo-Pacific region and the world at large. They also issued a joint statement.

What is Quad? The 4 democratic countries vis. India, Japan, Australia and the United States having found a common ground in the form of democracy came together to form this grouping in order to support the common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security. The group of these countries aims to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region remains free from any security issue, open for all the regional players and all the countries in this region prosper. The idea of Quad was first mooted by late Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe in 2007. However, the idea could not be materialized as Australia pulled out of it, apparently due to Chinese pressure. Finally in 2017, India, Australia, the US and Japan, came together and formed this “quadrilateral” coalition. The summit in Japan’s Hiroshima was the third in-person of the leadership.

What are its focus principles? The main principle of this group is to keep the strategic sea routes in the Indo-Pacific free of any military or political influence. Strategically speaking, this has been viewed by some of the Chinese observers as a coalition to reduce the dominance of China in the Indo-Pacific region. It also believes in the principle of rules based international order wherein no single country dictates the terms to its neighboring countries or to the international system in large. It also concerns itself with ensuring the freedom of navigation in the international maritime roots and keeping in check various security challenges. Liberal trading system is another main objective of this group. This became more important after world saw disruptions in the supply chain due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the trade rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. In addition to the above objectives, the coalition discusses various contemporary global issues at the ministerial and the top leadership level. These issues include and are not limited to critical and emerging technologies, connectivity and infrastructure, cyber security, maritime security, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, climate change, pandemic and education.

The 2023 summit in Hiroshima

Indo-Pacific remained at the core of discussions and the leaders in the joint statement reaffirmed their commitment to Free and Open Indo-Pacific and making it resilient. The leaders committed their countries for the development of Indo-Pacific region by supporting its stability and prosperity. The shared vision of maintaining dominance free area where no country is dominated and no country dominates others was reemphasized. The importance of regional institutions like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) was acknowledged and quad partners will work with these institutions.

Climate change was considered as a single largest threat to the humanity and the Quad countries pledged their support to the Pacific countries in fighting and finding solutions of the climate change. Quad countries and the Pacific nations will work together in the areas of climate action, ocean health, resilient infrastructure, maritime security and financial integrity. While defining their positive and practical agenda, the leaders recognized the urgency of resolving the climate crises. In this regard they will focus on climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts. This will be done under the directions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) will be utilized to increase the Indo-Pacific’s reach to the climate finance and climate smart technology. Referring to the extent of support provided by the quad countries to the Indo-Pacific countries which included some 400 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, they announced launching a broad health security partnership. This partnership will focus on strengthening the coordination and collaboration in enhancing the health security in the Indo-Pacific region. Supporting the health workforce development, disease surveillance, and electronic health information systems and coordination on outbreak responses was affirmed.

Quad’s stand on global issues

In the Indo-Pacific region, maritime peace and stability is of utmost importance. In this regard the Quad countries refer to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and affirm their adherence to the international law. The countries in the joint statement strongly opposed the forces which seek to destabilize the peace of Indo-Pacific region and the East and South China sea through any means. Without referring directly to China, the leaders expressed their concern over the growing militarization of the disputes, the manner in which the coastguards and maritime militia vessels are used and on the disruption on the offshore resource exploitation activities by other countries. The peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance to the international law without resorting to coercion was strongly advocated by the leaders. While the international institutions like the United Nations will be supported, any force compromising their integrity will not be tolerated. Underscoring the importance of contemporary realities, the countries reaffirmed their support for the reforms in the United Nations Security Council in both permanent and temporary membership. Terrorism also received some attention towards the end of the joint statement.

Hopes for the future

Quad in the coming years is going to play a quintessential role not only in the Indo-Pacific region but also in the world. Climate change or disaster has become a real threat to humanity. As Quad is a maritime alliance and mostly focuses on the countries bordering the seas and oceans, it has a greater role to play. The steps outlined in the joint statement are an indication of how it will shoulder this responsibility. The cooperation on climate will help in mitigating the climate changes by increasing the efforts on clean energy, climate finance and advanced climate technology.

Another hope emerges from following the international law and upholding the sovereignty of countries. This gives hope to the countries who are facing aggression from the authoritarian countries. While the statement referred to Ukraine, it gave a passing reference to China’s illegal advancement in the South China sea without naming it. This gives a sense of security to the countries having stake in these regions. The reform of the UNSC as highlighted by the joint statement is another hope for the future. Quad has the US as its member and it is also the permanent member of the UNSC. In this regard the Quad support is important for the initiation of reforms in the international institutions particularly the UNSC. Cooperation on terrorism requires likeminded countries to come together. Quad countries have democracy as their founding principle. Therefore, this alliance becomes important to fight the global and cross border terrorism.

Quad is an important alliance of likeminded countries. Their adherence to the international law makes it more important. Issues like climate change, unilateral territorial violations, global and cross border terrorism, maritime peace and security and the reform in the international institutions needs such countries to come together and chalk down the solutions for these issues. While some countries might consider it as an alliance designed to counter the China’s rise, the principles and objectives of Quad are very broad in nature and focus on the fundamental issues faced by humanity.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

Operation Kaveri which involved the evacuation and airlifting of over 3500 Indian nationals Especially the Hakki-Pikki tribe, along with several other foreign nationals from war-torn Sudan to India, has been wrapped up with success of bringing 3862 Indians back home. The mission was carried out in response to the escalating violence and instability in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region. The IAF deployed three C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and a team of over 50 personnel to facilitate the evacuation, along with INS Sumedha. The operation was conducted in close coordination with the Indian Embassy in Khartoum and the UN Mission in Sudan. Apart from Sudanese authorities, the MEA and the Indian Embassy in Sudan were in constant contact with the UN, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and the United States, among others. India not only brought back its own citizens but also those of its neighbour, Sri Lanka.

Sudan’s Coup

In April 2019, which ousted President Omar al-Bashir from power. The coup was led by the military after months of protests against al-Bashir’s regime. The military formed a transitional government, which was later replaced by a civilian-led government in 2020 after negotiations between the military and civilian forces. This was a significant moment in Sudan’s history, as it marked a shift towards democracy and civilian rule after decades of authoritarianism.

But the coup by the Sudanese Army in 2021 overthrew the Temporary Transitioning Government of Sudan as it was a move of ambition for power by Sudanese Armed Forces General Al-Burhan. The country is now in a state of civil war and tussle between the power-hungry General and the Rapid Security Force (RSF). Amid the civil war, the country has turned into an extreme hostile zone with no basic services functioning, and amidst all the chaos, the Indian diaspora is stuck in the regions of Darfur and Khartoum.

USA Brokered Ceasefire

A 72-hour ceasefire brokered by the US between Sudan’s warring generals went into effect following ten days of urban violence that killed hundreds, injured thousands, and prompted a major departure of foreigners. This truce intends to build humanitarian corridors that will allow citizens and communities to reach necessary resources, healthcare, and safe zones, as well as evacuate diplomatic missions. The government of India tried to make the most of the 72-hour window.

 But the military is warning the people of North Bahri and even Al-Qari about the RSF’s looting of numerous grain mills, overpasses from some road companies, and distribution tanks owned by food companies that were being used to transport munitions from their depot, making them military targets.

United Nations

External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar also met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York to request assistance. Given that humanitarian workers and ambulances have been targeted, it is evident that military troops, bureaucrats, and diplomats faced difficult days . They were undoubtedly helped by the cumulative experience of previous operations over the decades, culminating with the greatest single civilian evacuation during the Gulf War in 1991.

Regional Support

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt are the key players and partners who helped India bring its citizens home back safely. INS Sumedha, the third ship of the indigenously built Saryu class Naval Offshore Patrol Vessels (NOPV), arrived in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on February 20, 2023, to participate in NAVDEX 23 (Naval Defence Exhibition) along with IDEX 23 (International Defence Exhibition). It was an important element in transporting the Indian diaspora from Sudan’s port to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah port.

Egypt

Between April 13 and 17, the INS Sumedha was moored at ‘Port Said’ in Egypt. On April 15, 2023, as fighting erupted between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese military, Indian authorities dispatched the INS Sumedha to Port Sudan. INS Sumedha looked to be in a position to give rapid aid to the trapped Indians in Sudan due to its vicinity.

Saudi-Arabia

According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), this is due to the restriction of Sudanese airspace to all foreign planes, as well as the logistical hurdles and hazards connected with overland travel. Two Indian Air Force (IAF) C-130J planes were waiting in Jeddah to depart back to India with the trapped Indians from Jeddah Airport.

India’s Expertise in earlier Rescue Operations

This is not the first time when India has brought back its citizens home. Rescuing the Indian diaspora from hostile zones and returning them back to the motherland . Complex situations like these are the test of diplomatic ability and military capability of nations, and India has not just once but several times before proved its metal and executed such rescue missions successfully.

From Kuwait Air lift in 1990, following the march of one lakh Iraqi forces into Kuwait, over 2 lakh Indians were left trapped, leaving the general populace defenceless and with nowhere to go. Over the course of two months, the Indian government flew Indian citizens out of the country. Following this, Air India was inducted into the Guinness Book of World Records for carrying out the largest-ever air evacuation mission.

When the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels were embroiled in a fight in 2015, Indian authorities launched Operation Rahat. During the crisis, thousands of Indians and hundreds of international nationals were rescued from Yemen.

Operation Vande-Bharat was launched when the pandemic struck globally in 2020 and 2021, it trapped nearly 60 lakh Indian students as well as citizens of foreign nations. As a result, all foreign travel services were halted. The Indian government employed chartered planes, navy ships, and other ways to assist its countrymen in returning to the country.

Following Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine, Kiev proclaimed a no-fly zone. However, almost 20,000 Indians were present in Ukraine and were assisted in returning to India in stages through Operation Ganga.

India’s capacity to evacuate its people is noteworthy, and the principle of “No man left behind” is strictly enforced. The standard operational procedures that India follows are now being adopted by other nations, demonstrating the Government of India’s dedication to its people.

By: Hitti Chopra, Research Analyst, GSDN

The city of Sudan for almost a month is under a civil war where the two military factions are in a power struggle over a wavering transition to a civilian led government. The intense confrontations between Sudan military and paramilitary force have led to civilians paying a heavy toll. The nation is experiencing heavy looting, killing, fleeing of over more 3,00,000 people to neighbouring countries (according to UN Agencies).

The civil war is led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo also known as Hemedti.

Despite truces, ceasefires agreed by both sides, have been regularly violated, the fight between the two factions continues in the capital city of Khartoum. According to the NY Times “The most of the fighting now appears to be taking place in Khartoum and in the western region of Darfur. The army, which has access to planes, dominates much of the country, including Port Sudan. But most of central Khartoum is controlled by fighters with the Rapid Support Forces. Analysts say that in the view of dominance, the power struggle has led to political and social instability in the region.

The Rapid Support Force (RSF) was formed by Bashir 20 years ago to suppress the rebellion that arose in Sudan because of political and economic marginalisation in Darfur. Locally known as Janjaweed, RSF has been under scrutiny for committing serious atrocities. In 2013, RSF was formed as a paramilitary force and was deployed to repress the rebellion in South Darfur. In 2019, RSF was led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and general armed forces under Burhan cooperated to oust Bashir.

Sudan had been looking forward to a democratic, civilian led nation since the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Basher in 2019.The civilians of Sudan demanded supervision over the military and the integration of RSF in the general armed forces. Moreover, civilians have been seeking justice over war crimes by the military and its allies in Darfur since 2003.The trials of Basheer and other suspected Sudanese are undergoing in the International Criminal Court. The attempt was short lived and disrupted by a coup led by Al-Burhan in October 2021. It was directed against the transitional government led by Abdalla Hamdok which further led to suspension of international funding leading to humanitarian crisis in Sudan. The nation experienced political and economic instability, protests resulting to hundreds of deaths and injuries. In 2022, the military and civilian groups aligned for a democratic transition but before the framework could be finalised, Sudan experienced clashes between Al Burhan and Hamdam Dagalo.

THE REGION IN LIMELIGHT

Sudan sits at a key yet unstable position in the African continent. It has a considerable coastline on the Red Sea and is surrounded by seven countries — the Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Egypt, Libya, Chad and South Sudan who themselves have been experiencing political upheavals and conflict. The civil war possesses a threat to not only the reordering in Sudan but could be a start to new chaos in the region. The disputed farmland along the borders of Sudan and Ethiopia has further strained their relations. Many Sudanese refugees have fled to the neighbouring countries.

Sudan bordered by the Red Sea, Horn of Africa and the Sahel region makes it a strategic location and a contention between various regional power plays which complicates the chances of transition of the nation to a civilian led government. Sudan is rich in valuable natural resources which put the African nation in limelight such as China, Russia and USA.

The West since the beginning of civil war has sponsored mediation in and has backed a permanent ceasefire in the war region. The west has negotiated and pressed the Generals in Sudan for a transition to a civilian-led government.

Russia is eyeing for setting up a naval base in Sudan, linking Moscow to the Indian Ocean. Khartoum in 2019 during oust of Al-Bashir became the second largest buyer of Russian arms in Africa. The West fears the Russian naval deal to which the Sudanese military has shown openness. According to a CNN investigation, Russia is allowed to mine gold in different parts of Sudan which has cushioned the Russian economy amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has maintained to act neutral in the ongoing civil war in Sudan.

Like Moscow, Turkey seeks to increase its naval presence in the Red Sea and maintains its soft power through charities, educational institutions with Sudan. Turkey ensures a constructive perception in the Sudan region through its soft power.

The two Generals in the country could not come to a consensus and every ceasefire agreement has been momentary since mid-April. The nation amidst this power struggle is facing a huge humanitarian, economic crisis along with mass displacement in the region.

By: Aleena T Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

The French Pensions reform bill signed by French President Emmanuel Macron will come into effect from early September. The bill had received widespread backlash from workers around the country, leading to many protests and unaccounted violent attacks in many parts of the country. The bill was in talks from 2019 with warnings and public backlash, but President Macron continued with his plan to increase the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 along with the number of years needed to be in service in order to be eligible for pensions. He argued life expectancy rates have increased and it is straining the country’s economy. This reform was to come into act from 2019 but got delayed because of the Covid-19 situation prevalent across the world.

Background 

The plans for increasing the retirement age have been in talks in France for years and there have been various motions to set it in place but it always sparked tensions and protests from the people. France is one of few countries in the world which has the lowest retirement age and the highest pensions for decades. This system has persisted for so long that the economy is faltering. Many other European countries like the UK have increased their ages for retirement as it is the only way to match the increasing number of living older population. 

President Macron claims the economy will run into a ditch if the pension reform plans are not put into focus. If the plan is not put into motion, then the economy will have a rundown by 2023 and 2027, although it is said to get back on track by the mid-2030s based on reports by France’s Pension Advisory Council. Although attempts to have any increase have been met only with criticism from the opposition as well as the public. In his first term, President Macron met with criticism for his take on the pension reform plans. Previously, in 1995, the then President Jacques Chirac, planned to increase the age of retirement for some categories of civil servants, but it did not come into effect because it was met with protests with millions of people on the street for the longest period. 2010 was also a year of the marked protests in France over the increase of legal retirement age from 60 to 62. Although it was met with criticism, the government increased the age after the protests subsided after a week. Protestors in France have had success in persuading the government not to make any changes to the pensions bill over the course of years in the country. 

Why people are Protesting?

The people in France have been protesting head on for weeks against the increase in the legal retirement age of workers from 62 to 64. They argue that there is no such case of economic crisis and that the government must not burden people even more. Opponents, which include the left as well as the right and the workers’ union, cite that there is no need for such reforms as they will take away a good two years of retirement from the blue-collar workers instead of increasing the taxes of wealthy people. 

The bill is said to only benefit the rich and will drive the blue-collar workers into more hustling and even lesser chance of living a happy life after retirement. The bill not only increased the age but also increased the number of years required to fulfil the minimum criteria to be eligible for the pension. This has triggered protests in mass numbers in the cites of Paris, Lyon and Nantes. Labour unions estimate an amount of 2 million people to have come for the protests, while France’s interior ministry has estimated a sum of 570,000. People have been looting stores and restaurants, bank windows are smashed and the BlackRock office in Paris has been invaded. The police have responded with teargas. 

The hard-left leader of France, Jean-Luc Melencho says that the protests will continue no matter the outcome of the courts. People are gathering in thousands in Paris and there have been violent attacks and vandalising by the left wing. 

The reform bill has not been popular with the members of Parliament either and they do not want to risk public opinion. The public have always been reluctant to the bill and always protested it whenever it was bought up be it 1995, 2010 or 2019. This made it even more reasonable for the Parliament to not support the bill. 

Macron, on the other hand, believes that the protests will subside after the coming of the decision from the constitutional council, which will decide if the bill needs to be kept in case of a constitutional appeal by another party. He hopes the result will discourage the protests and that the people will understand the need for reforms in the now globalizing world. 

How Macron Pushed through the Reform despite so much opposition?

President Macron faced so much opposition to the reform bill even from the Parliament. So, he decided to move differently around this bill by cancelling the vote. Instead of doing normal parliamentary voting, the President pushed for a controversial special constitutional power. Article 49.3 of the French constitution gives the government the power to bypass the Parliament.

Macron changed the voting method only minutes before the lower house members were about to cast their vote. Macron was in meetings and discussions with political leaders and finally decided to use the extra constitutional power to bypass parliament’s decisions. He explains that the country’s economy is at risk and it cannot be taken lightly. The left and the hard left-wing MPs voiced their opposition in the Parliament by singing the national anthem loudly and asking the President to resign. A vote of no-confidence was called 24 hours after   of Article 49.3 and the President narrowly escaped the no-confidence motion by the vote of 278, it fell short 9 votes as 287 votes. If a no-confidence motion had been a success, then the President had to name a new government or hold new elections. A second no-confidence motion set out by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party was also not met with any success.

Pensions in other European Nations

A closer look at the numbers in the European nations will give a better idea of how France stands in comparison to its other neighbours. France has one of the lowest retirement ages among the European nations. The average age is 64.3 across the 27 nations in Europe. The OECD explains that French people spend longer in retirement as their retirement age is lower and the life expectancy of people is longer than in other European nations. A French man spends 23.5 years in retirement, second to Luxembourg’s 24 years and Britain and Germany’s 20 years.
The French spend 14 percent of their economic output on retirement pensions and that is double the OECD average of 7.7 percent. The only two countries spending more than France are Greece and Italy, but this keeps France’s poverty rate at 4 percent compared to other European countries and their gap between the rich and poor is very grim when compared to other nations. The argument which can be made here is not whether France provides a better policy for pensioners, but it depends upon the metric that is used to measure or access the situation.

Moving Forward

France’s President must make decisions ever so carefully now about pensions reform. The judgements and decisions he make will end up having drastic consequences for his people. People are on the streets demanding to take back the reform as they believe it will bring more harm than good, as the President claims. The French pension reforms have always sparked conflicts between the people and the government dating back to history. This clash is always going to be pertinent between the government and the people. Making decisions that will not endanger the common likings of the people as well as the economy is very important for the proper functioning of a country. The French President believes that working a bit longer like their European neighbours could save the country from an economic meltdown, but this is yet to be seen as a study published by a think tank called Rexecode on how the French pensions reform will affect the economy explains that even with the reform, the country will face an economic crisis in the future.

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

Armenia hosted the first ever Trilateral meeting of India Armenia and Iran Format on April 20, 2022 in Yerevan. Yerevan is getting quite close with two increasingly important partners for Armenia as it navigates the geopolitical landscape during a difficult period in its ties with Moscow. The foreign ministries of the three countries focused mostly on economic problems and regional communication lines, but with some defence considerations thrown in for good measure. JP Singh, Joint Secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs, led the Indian delegation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a constant struggle with each other and with Russia’s recent Special Military Operation in Ukraine it has not been able to get the same sense of security from its warrantor Russia as it enjoyed in the past. Iran in this struggle is aligning itself with Armenia and backing Yerevan. Whereas Russia is currently unable to operate as a weapons supplier, India is being sought as a prospective replacement. This comes at a time when Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are stepping up trilateral collaboration.

Armenia-Azerbaijan struggle

The Second Karabakh War, which took place between September and November 2020, was a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict resulted in the loss of many lives and displacement of thousands of civilians. The conflict was triggered by the Armenian military’s attack on Azerbaijani positions in the region on September 27, 2020. Azerbaijan responded with a counter-offensive, which led to intense fighting between the two sides. The conflict was marked by the use of heavy artillery, drones, and other advanced military technology.

The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10, 2020, which resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control of much of the territory it had lost in the previous conflict in the 1990s. The ceasefire also provided for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region to monitor the situation. But with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, Russia “The Warrantor” of peace in the region is not able to provide it.

The recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a matter of concern for the international community. The two countries have a long-standing territorial dispute over this region, which has led to several clashes and military confrontations in the past.

The recent escalation of violence in the region has resulted in the loss of many lives and displacement of thousands of civilians. The situation is complex and multifaceted, with several factors contributing to the conflict. The issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is not just a territorial dispute but also involves questions of identity, history and geopolitics.

Iran’s Backing

Iran has historically played a significant role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Iran shares borders with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and has a large population of ethnic Azerbaijanis living within its borders. Iran has also been a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the past. Iran has been calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and has expressed concern over the recent escalation of violence. Iran has also offered to mediate between the two sides and has been in contact with both Armenia and Azerbaijan to try and find a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

However, Iran’s position on the conflict is complicated by its own internal politics and regional dynamics. Iran has close ties with Armenia and has been a strategic partner for many years. At the same time, Iran is wary of Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel and the United States, which it sees as a threat to its own security.

Zangezur Corridor

The Zangezur Corridor is a proposed transportation link that would connect Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhichevan with Turkey, passing through the southern Armenian region of Syunik (Zangezur). The corridor has the potential to significantly boost economic connectivity and regional integration in the South Caucasus. The Zangezur Corridor has the potential to serve as a key trade route connecting Europe and Asia. It could also help to unlock the economic potential of the South Caucasus, which has long been hampered by political tensions and conflict.

However, the corridor is a complex issue, given that it involves several countries with competing interests. The Armenian government has expressed concerns about the potential impact of the corridor on its national security, given that it would pass through a strategic region of Armenia and Iran is backing Armenia considering a threat to its national security as well. At the same time, Azerbaijan and Turkey see the corridor as a vital link for their economic and strategic interests.

India’s Defence Ties

India and Armenia have had a long-standing defense cooperation, with India providing military training and equipment to Armenian armed forces. In 2018, India and Armenia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on defense cooperation, which included areas such as military training, joint exercises, and exchange of defense-related information. The MoU was aimed at further deepening the bilateral defense ties between the two countries. India has also been a key supplier of defense equipment to Armenia in the past. In 2017, India supplied four SWATHI weapon locating radars to Armenia, which were aimed at enhancing the country’s artillery firepower.

India and Armenia have maintained a strong defense partnership, and it is believed that this partnership will continue to grow in the future with the development of this Trilateral and can be a counter- balance to the Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey Axis.

Boost to Make in India

With Armenia now seeking more defence equipment, this can boost the efforts of self- reliance and “Make in India”. Firstly, it demonstrates India’s growing role as a major defence supplier in the global market. India has been steadily increasing its defence exports in recent years, and this is a testament to its capabilities in this area.

Secondly, the deals will be a boost to India’s “Make in India” initiative, which will aim to promote domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports. By manufacturing defence equipment for export, India can not only earn foreign exchange but also create jobs and boost the domestic economy.

Thirdly, it is a sign of the growing strategic partnership between India and Armenia. India and Armenia have traditionally had friendly relations, and this deal will further strengthen the ties between the two countries.

Scope for Future

There is great potential for cooperation and collaboration between these three countries. Each country has its unique strengths and capabilities that can be leveraged for mutual benefit. In terms of economic cooperation, there are several areas where the trilateral can work together, such as energy, infrastructure, and trade. Iran is a major oil and gas producer, while India and Armenia are major consumers. There is, therefore, scope for energy cooperation, including the development of the North-South Transport Corridor, which will connect India with Central Asia and Russia via Iran and Azerbaijan.

In addition, there is potential for cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and education. The trilateral can work towards the exchange of expertise and knowledge-sharing in areas such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and renewable energy. Furthermore, the trilateral can also collaborate on regional security issues, particularly with regards to terrorism and extremism. The three countries can share intelligence and coordinate their efforts to counter these threats.

 Overall, the future of this trilateral depends on the willingness of the three countries to work together and overcome any challenges that may arise. With a shared commitment to peace, stability, and development, the India-Armenia-Iran trilateral can be a powerful force for progress in the region.