India’s Big Defense Moves – India has long been recognized as the world’s top weapons importer, but that hasn’t stopped the nation from doubling down on its military strength. In fact, New Delhi has unveiled an ambitious plan to spend approximately $200 billion over the next decade on modernizing and transforming its defense capabilities. But why is India in such a hurry to ramp up its military arsenal?

Beyond Pakistan, Eyes on China

While Pakistan has traditionally been India’s primary adversary, the real catalyst behind this military overhaul lies further east—China. Border skirmishes, Beijing’s aggressive posturing in the Indian Ocean, and an escalating tech rivalry have heightened tensions between the two Asian giants.

China’s expansionist policies and military buildup along the border remain a serious challenge, and the challenge isn’t just limited to land. China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean is one of India’s most pressing concerns.

As Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice, puts it – China has made the point that the Indian Ocean is not India’s ocean. The Chinese navy is actively developing aircraft carriers, two of which are expected to be stationed in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, Beijing has established a full-scale naval base in Djibouti, located in East Africa, where it regularly conducts naval drills. For India, this is a strategic red flag.

Strengthening Indo-U.S. Defense Ties

Amid these rising tensions, India has been recalibrating its defense partnerships—most notably with the United States. In a recent White House meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed their commitment to deepening defense cooperation. This includes India’s acquisition of additional U.S. military hardware such as heavy armored vehicles, drones, and advanced fighter jets.

Kenneth I. Juster, former U.S. Ambassador to India, noted the significance of this development stating, it is extraordinary that, less than one month into the new Trump Administration, the United States and India could announce such a broad set of actions in the defense sector.

Beyond security interests, purchasing American military equipment also helps India address its growing trade imbalance with the U.S.—an issue critical to maintaining favorable diplomatic relations. According to industry estimates, Boeing has secured the largest share of U.S. military sales to India since 2017, cementing its role as a key defense supplier.

The F-35 Debate

One of the most intriguing possibilities emerging from U.S.-India defense talks is the potential sale of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jets to India. These state-of-the-art supersonic jets could provide India with a significant aerial advantage. However, there’s a catch—India is not a formal U.S. military ally and continues to procure Russian defense equipment, which complicates such a high-tech transfer.

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri acknowledged that the F-35 sale is still at a “proposal stage,” and no formal acquisition process has begun. Additionally, analysts remain skeptical about the deal’s feasibility. Roman Schweizer, an aerospace and defense policy analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, noted, “There will be challenges in completing the sale given India’s use of Russian military systems.”

Playing Catch-Up with China

Irrespective of the outcome of the F-35 deal, India’s defense spending is set to remain strong. JPMorgan estimates that India’s capital expenditures on defense will grow by 8% annually from 2024 to 2026.

“Growth in India’s defense capex is driven by its own geopolitical and security considerations,” wrote Atul Tiwari, infrastructure, industrials, and utilities analyst at JPMorgan, in a note to clients.

However, experts argue that India still has a long way to go in catching up with its main regional rival—China. By official numbers, China’s military and defense budget is currently three times the size of India’s and continues to grow rapidly, according to Eurasia Group.

U.S. Constraints and the Road Ahead

Despite India’s push to acquire advanced weaponry, capacity limitations in the U.S. defense sector could slow down this process. As limited investment in manufacturing means the U.S. defense industrial base faces capacity constraints and extended delivery timelines.

This comes at a time when India must compete with European demand for U.S. weaponry, as well as America’s own needs to counter China.

Drive Toward Self-Sufficiency

India is increasingly aware of what’s best to procure from foreign sources and what should be built domestically. The government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative has given a strong push to domestic defense manufacturing, with companies like Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, and Zen Technologies emerging as major players in the sector.

In 2023, General Electric signed a partnership with Hindustan Aeronautics to co-manufacture jet engines in India, a deal that secured U.S. congressional approval and involved technology transfer. Sources close to the Indian government confirmed that this aspect of tech-sharing was a key discussion point between Modi and Trump during the Indian leader’s recent visit to the U.S.

Europe’s Defense Awakening, A Golden Opportunity for India’s Defense Sector?

Meanwhile, the ongoing chess game of geopolitics in the Russia-Ukraine war has forced Europe into a strategic reassessment of its security. While the war itself has been a wake-up call, it is U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on NATO that has truly shaken the continent’s long-standing defense complacency. By making it clear that the U.S. expects NATO allies to pay for their own security, Trump has effectively signaled an era where Europe can no longer rely on Washington’s military shield without contributing significantly to its upkeep.

Europe’s Urgent Military Realignment

This shift has led to a dramatic increase in defense spending across Europe. Countries like Germany, France, and Poland have announced record-breaking military budgets, with NATO’s European members collectively ramping up their defense allocations to levels not seen since the Cold War. The realization—Russia remains self-sufficient in weapons production, whereas Europe, despite being home to some of the best arms manufacturers, cannot scale its production overnight.

While companies like Rheinmetall (Germany) and Dassault Aviation (France) are at the forefront of military technology, the manufacturing bottlenecks and bureaucratic red tape prevent a rapid expansion of production capacity. This is where a critical gap emerges—one that India’s burgeoning defense manufacturing sector is well-positioned to fill.

The Opportunity for Indian Defense Manufacturers

This gap could be the perfect opportunity for India, with its rapidly growing defense sector under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, can play a crucial role in bridging this production gap.

Leading Indian defense firms such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Forge, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) are increasingly making a mark in global defense manufacturing. India has already demonstrated its ability to produce high-quality military equipment at scale, and its cost-effective solutions offer a compelling alternative for European nations scrambling to arm themselves against a potential Russian threat.

As the war in Ukraine drags on and NATO members scramble to meet their new defense obligations, India stands at the cusp of a significant opportunity. The current geopolitical chessboard presents a moment where India can not only enhance its global standing as a defense exporter but also deepen strategic ties with Europe. This is a moment of recalibration—while Europe reorients its military priorities, India has the chance to step in as a crucial player in the global defense supply chain.

The Last Bit 

India’s ambition to strengthen its defense industry and protect its vast population from emerging threats is pushing the country toward a more balanced approach—one that leverages both foreign partnerships and indigenous capabilities. This delicate dance between competing global powers—particularly the U.S. and Russia—will require careful maneuvering as India works to become a formidable force in the defense arena.

However, at the same time, as Europe wakes up to the realities of modern warfare and the need for rapid military expansion, India’s defense industry must seize the moment. The road ahead presents immense possibilities—if India plays its cards right, it could emerge as one of the most critical defense suppliers in the new world order.