By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Thucydides, the famous Greek historian’s quote in 430 BCE “The strong do what they have to do and the weak accept what they have to accept” is as relevant in today’s era as it has always been centuries down the line. There is no period in world history which has seen total peace, and neither there will be any in the near future.

History has proven that only the strong have emerged victorious and hard power has been the only major deciding factor. As “The Great Game” that lasted for a century which was being played between the Russian & British Empires from 1807 to 1907, even though both had formal diplomatic relations, the swings of supremacy swayed to the one whose hard power would increase as compared to the other.

Coming to contemporary times, be it the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War & the Israel-Hamas War or the recently concluded India-Pakistan Conflict 2025, the 12-day Israel-Iran War & the military strikes between USA and Iran, the side which had to attacked, did so. For all talks of peace and prosperity & dialogue and diplomacy, there are 13 wars & conflicts going on as on date with over 37 million people killed in military confrontations since 1800. 

This article does not aim to either discuss the reasons of any war and conflict, or who emerged victorious in the military confrontations. The fact simply remains that since mankind has existed on Earth, hard power has only mattered. But in this era, the existence of nuclear weapons puts the world in the most precarious situation, then what existed prior to World War II.

Even as the embers of the recent Israel-Iran War had not cooled, Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General alarmed the world on June 25, 2025 about the massive Chinese military buildup and potential for Taiwan invasion.

Last year, Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command on October 28, 2024 stated that China is conducting the largest military buildup in world history. Early this year, on January 08, 2025 Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, the Indian Air Force Chief expressed concern over increased militarisation by China and the rapid pace at which the Chinese defence technology is growing.

Why would China continuously increase its military might when no country in the world can dare attack China? Clearly, China has military objectives to be achieved.

On January 17, 2024 Grant Shapps, the British Defence Secretary warned of multiple war theatres opening up in the next five years which would involve Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. How prophetic his words have turned out to be with the recently concluded Israel-Iran War and the US-Iran military strikes.

China’s war for Taiwan is only couple of years away. On March 17, 2025 General Upendra Dwivedi, the Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army stated that two-front war on India is no longer a possibility, but a reality.

Any nation that has the remotest possibility of finding itself in a war, has to be fully prepared. For, there are no runners-up in a war. There is only a victor or a vanquished.

A nation’s military strength can thwart external threats and there can absolutely be no compromise on this issue. Any nation that goes against this well-established dictum will only face defeat.

While talks of dialogue, diplomacy and soft power look good on paper and are ideal photo-opportunities, in the time of a nation finding itself in a war or conflict, only hard power matters. Those same peaceniks who talk of global peace and reduction in a nation’s defence budget are the most vocal proponents of giving the enemy a befitting reply when their nation is attacked.

In the present times as the money power of nations/entities has increased, so has their military aspirations and scant regard for international rules and regulations. Hamas attacked Israel on October 07, 2023 to press for two-state solution despite the United Nations seized of the Palestine issue and vide Resolution 242 of 1967 having declared Israel’s occupation of the Gaza Strip and West Bank as illegal.

Israel attacked Iran on June 13, 2025 to destroy its infrastructure pivotal for developing nuclear weapons, though Israel itself is neither a member of the International Atomic Energy Commission nor a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and possesses 90 nuclear weapons. Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022 though there exists the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 in which Russia had pledged to respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and existing borders.

Not to mention Pakistan’s occupation on Indian territories that lead to the Kargil War in May 1999, just three months after both the nations had signed the Lahore Declaration in February 1999 or the recent US attack on Iran just a day before the sixth round of talks were to held between Iran & USA.

Just few examples above have been mentioned where treaties, alliances, rules and regulations have been broken with impunity. The list is endless. The world is on an edge today. Every morning only brings news of turmoil and turbulence in some part of the world.

There can be no exceptions to any international rules and regulations. But it is happening blatantly. Those who have the hard power are doing it without any qualms while others are either suffering or rushing to the ineffective United Nations.

And neither can there be any justification for breaking the international order that exists in various forms, else there will be no sanctity left in talks and treaties. As it is, there is hardly any such respect left for those in vogue.

The United Nations has been rendered toothless due to the veto powers enjoyed by the P5 nations – USA, Russia, China, United Kingdom & France. It is indeed ironical that the United Nations which advocates democracy globally, doesn’t have democracy within its own organisation.

No wonder the world today is highly disenchanted with the United Nations as the P5 itself is divided into two camps. One, comprising the USA, France and the United Kingdom and the other Russia & China. And rarely in the United Nation’s 80-year-old history have the two camps ever agreed on any issues. What one camp supports, the other has to but, oppose.

Thus, any nation/entity having hard power and wishing to use it does so. For, it is aware that allegiance to any of the two camps will ensure no backlash. Mere statements or condemnation or passing of resolutions are certainly no deterrent for the nation/entity using hard power.

The world is now in the most dangerous phase ever as nine nations possess nuclear weapons and many others either in the process of acquiring them or already having acquired them clandestinely.

The after-effects of usage of a nuclear weapon need no deliberation. The nuclear weapons used in Hiroshima & Nagasaki in Japan in 1945 were of 15 kilotons yield each which resulted in 250,000 dead. The nuclear weapons of the present era have a yield of 100 kilotons and more, and the casualties that they can cause, will be in millions.

To avoid the any future wars/conflicts the international order has to be implemented effectively and the three superpowers ie USA, Russia & China have to step in and ensure fair and transparent implementation of international treaties and alliance by setting personal examples.

In any system or organisation if rules are broken and there is unfairness and partiality, there will be mayhem and chaos. In the global arena, the three superpowers have to neither break the international rules themselves nor over-look their close partners when they do so.

There is no ideal world but one can atleast try to attain idealism. Vince Lombardi’s quote has great depth “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection, we can catch excellence”. Today, it is free for all and anyone with hard power is using the way it deems fit with utter disregard to international rules and regulations. This is the root cause of the turmoil and turbulence that exists globally with mistrust and misgivings abnormally high, though nations are much richer than at the end of the World War II, educational levels are very high and borders are well defined, barring few cases.

Till international rules and regulations are followed, it is only hard power that will matter as it is already happening.