By: Aishwarya Dutta

“Diplomacy is like Jazz: Endless variations on a theme.” The recent SCO summit proves how much truth this statement by Richard Holbrooke holds.     

The 24th summit of the Council of heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on July 4, 2024 adopted the Astana Declaration approving 25 strategic documents covering energy, security, trade, finance and information security. The SCO is an Eurasian intergovernmental organization which came into formation on 15 June, 2001 in Shanghai, China. Currently the SCO has ten members namely, Republic of Kazakhstan, People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Belarus. The SCO undertakes policies based on the principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and mutual consultations, respect for cultural diversity, and a desire for common development with an aim to maintain and safeguard peace, security and stability in the region.

The summit titled “Strengthening Multilateral Dialogue – Striving Towards a Sustainable Peace and Prosperity” saw several bilateral as well as multilateral meetings among the heads of states of the member states. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s absence has been speculated as a purposive stance on India’s part to put pressure on China to reconsider their encroaching activities at the Indo-China border. On behalf of Modi, the External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar represented India and urged global action against terror-harboring nations; thus, taking an indirect dig at China and Pakistan. What caught the attention however was the brewing Sino-Russian as well as Russia-Pakistan ties. These growing bilateral relationships could be a matter of apprehension for India. We shall explore these variations in the paradigms of the relationships between the major powers within the SCO in this article.

Sino-Russian ties

Putin and Xi held bilateral meetings on the SCO sidelines. They met on July 3, 2024 making it the second meeting in two months and emphasized on the strengthening of partnership to counter Western influence. Putin underscored that Sino-Russian relations are going through their ‘best’ phase, highlighting their role as a stabilizing force globally. He also emphasized SCO’s growing significance in shaping a “fair multipolar order.” China has offered crucial support to Russia’s economy amid severe sanctions while the two nations have also strengthened military cooperation.

After several years of apparently unbeatable distrust and bilateral crises, the post-Cold War era has observed an extraordinary regeneration and strengthening of the relationship between Russia and China. In the 1950s, after a primary influence of the stated socialist ‘brotherhood’ and deep political and financial assistance, Moscow and Beijing quickly went into an aggressive tactical hostility. In 1969, things went to the point of nuclear dangers. The relations were finally normalized in 1989 and the two countries developed a close association. Since 1991, the major powers of the world have experienced intense modifications in status: China, prospered in military and economic transformations, appeared as a rising power on the global arena; Russia, extremely involved in political and economic changes, lost the status of super power; and the U.S got converted to the only remaining international superpower after it had vanished its Cold War opponent. The theoretical basis for strategic partnership between China and Russia refers to the system of contrasting a unipolar world and sponsoring a multipolar system in the world. In the mid-1990s, leaders of China, Jiang Zemin, and of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, decided to make a ‘strategic partnership’ between the both states. Russia and China signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 2001.

Russia-Pakistan bilateral ties

In the recent SCO summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to consider barter trade as a means to outmaneuver Western financial sanctions hindering economic cooperation. Sharif recalled how Pakistan and Russia engaged in barter trade (of machinery, textiles, leather and other products) during the Soviet period. According to Sharif, resuming the barter system would greatly benefit Pakistan and help overcome many other challenges.

Pakistan and Russia have witnessed a fluctuation of relations during the cold war and the post-cold war era. The worst period of their relationship lasted a decade from 1979 to 1989 when Pakistan helped launch the US sponsored guerrilla war of the Mujahideen against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. This bitter phase ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. But another source of tension arose in the later part of 1990s on account of Pakistan’s support to the Taliban in the Afghan civil war and its ultimate recognition of their government which the Soviets believed was harmful for the entire region. However, despite this history of tense relations, both countries from time to time made moves to improve their relations. Nawaz Sharif, as Prime Minister of Pakistan, visited Russia in 1999 and signed quite a few trade and industry related agreements. This visit greatly helped in breaking the ice and opening a new chapter of bilateral relations.  The visit was termed by the Russian President Boris Yeltsin as a “new chapter in relations between the two countries oriented into the 21st century.” There onwards exchange of visits by representatives of both countries became a regular feature. In 2011, Russia’s Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin publicly supported Pakistan’s desire to attain full membership of SCO. He further stated that in South Asia and the Muslim world, Pakistan was a very important partner for Russia.

While Pakistan needs Russian investment for reviving its economy due to dwindling American aid (post the 9/11 tragedy), Russia also eyes Pakistan as a good destination for its investments and trade, with India getting closer to the US and Europe in its place. It is in this light that the recent progress in Pak-Russian relations is being seen. Many scholars, leaders and diplomats believe that Pakistan-Russia relations would grow more even in face of Indo-US tacit opposition.

Implications for India

Modi’s vision of a ‘secure’ SCO seems to be a far-fetched dream. ‘Secure’ is an acronym for security, economic cooperation, connectivity, unity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and environmental protection. The growing Sino-Russian and Russia-Pakistan relations within the context of the SCO might prove to be a serious hurdle for India’s secure strategy. While PM Modi decided to skip the summit, Sharif and Xi saw it as a great opportunity to strengthen their ties with Russia which is also one of the most important allies of India. While India balances out between Russia and the USA to counter Chinese hegemonic influence in Asia, China’s closer relations with Russia might prove to be troubling India’s stronghold in Asia as well.

However, the friendship between India and Russia is still very strong. The former Soviet Union was the main supplier of defense equipment to India for many decades. Their geopolitical ties have become stronger since the 2011 ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.’ The Russian Government has supported India’s efforts for becoming a permanent member of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with full veto power and also backed India’s full membership of SCO. Both countries have been cooperating in energy and space programs also. India and Russia have taken some major steps to promote trade and economic cooperation as well. However, in view of India’s growing relations with the US and interest in purchasing its military hardware, Russia has been going closer to Pakistan. Russia’s logic is that since it has accepted India’s agreement of strategic partnership with the US, India should also not object to Russia’s evolving friendship with Pakistan.

Another point to note is that Pakistan and China are also very close friends with strategic cooperation in many micro and macro level economic projects and military related fields. China has been steadfast in supporting Pakistan’s role in the ‘war on terror’. It has firmly supported Pakistan in all matters in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and also not to forget the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China even aided Pakistan in developing the Gwadar Port in Baluchistan.

Conclusion

Having explored all these facets, India seems to linger outside a triangular camaraderie which exists among China, Russia and Pakistan especially after the recent SCO summit. The forum might become a little less attractive for India to further its cause. Being an ally of only one of the countries i.e. Russia would put India in a tight position in the future. However, we are yet to witness how things unfold for India.