By: Geehan Kooner

‘Wars begin where deep currents of conflict between major powers converge—where opposing military forces face each other, poised for action. One false move or a deliberate act can trigger disaster.’ One such flashpoint today is the sharpening dispute over Taiwan. The island has become the focus of tectonic scale geopolitical tensions, a faultline ready to fracture and pull China into a clash that could engulf the United States and its allies around the world.

The issue revolves around China’s claim over Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that functions like an independent nation but is not widely recognised as a sovereign state. Chinese President Xi Jinping, has tightened his authoritarian grip and built up a powerful military focused on what Beijing calls the “reunification” of Taiwan with the Chinese motherland. According to various reports, a full scale invasion could be launched by China by 2027. Latest Chinese military movements have only added to the seriousness. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly raised its presence and activity around the island by sending dozens of warships, aircraft carriers, and warplanes. The growing antagonism over the Taiwanese Strait and the gravely entrenched US- China rivalry has made this conflict one of the most critical in the world.

Historical Fault Lines

To truly grasp and understand the present scenario, one has to step back and explore the past. China lost its grip over Taiwan during what is referred to as the century of humiliation. From the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, a series of invasions and internal disputes plagued China. To this day, this notion of humiliation has shaped the Chinese state ideology. In 1895, Japan seized control over Taiwan and made it a colony under the Treaty of Shimonoseki. However, after World War II, Japan was forced by the allies to surrender Taiwan. China, during that time found itself caught up and embroiled in a civil war with the Nationalists (ROC) led by Chiang Kai-shek battling against the Communists led by Mao Zedong.

In 1949, the People’s Republic of China was established on the mainland, when victorious communists marched into Beijing. After the government of the Republic of China was defeated, they retreated to Taiwan. Since that time, two rival governments have emerged, each claiming to represent China: the PRC in Beijing and the ROC in Taipei. The PRC government in Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and says there is only one China even though they have never actually governed it. Most of the world including the U.S.  accepts this One China policy thus not recognising Taiwan as an independent country.

So, the question arises, ‘why is the U.S. backing Taiwan then?’ In the aftermath of the civil war, the US initially saw the nationalist government in Taiwan as the only legitimate or real China, turning it back and rejecting the communist government on the mainland. US soldiers were even stationed in Taiwan under a common defence pact. However, during the 1970s a major change occurred as the US moved closer to Beijing which resulted in the closing of the US embassy in Taiwan and pulling out the US troops. Despite the complexities, the US continued informal relations through the American institute in Taiwan which acts like a de facto American embassy. The U.S. deliberately follows an ambiguous and vague scheme on military support for Taiwan, aiming to balance deterring Chinese aggression while also managing Taiwanese aspirations for independence. Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint in the U.S.-China relations, with its status symbolizing deeper ideological and historical divisions.

Taiwan’s strategic geography and US “First Island Chain” Strategy

Taiwan’s location makes it a geopolitical flashpoint. Located merely 130 km away from China’s mainland, Taiwan is home to about 23 million people. The island is strategically positioned at the intersection of three crucial maritime chokepoints: the Taiwan Strait to the west, the Miyako Strait (between Taiwan and Japan) to the north, and the Bashi Channel (between Taiwan and the Philippines) to the south. These routes are essential for world trade, military logistics and regional security, making Taiwan a strategic barrier or gateway between the East China Sea and the broader Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan also sits at the heart of the US “First Island Chain” strategy. It is a line which links US allied territories and military bases running from Japan, South Korea and Philippines.

While Taiwan may not be an official ally of the US, its strategic and pivotal location plays an important role in allowing the US to project its power close to China’s coastline, safeguarding and protecting its allies and interests. On the flip side, the Chinese military finds it quite challenging to extend its reach beyond the first island chain making it tough for them to pose a direct threat or challenge to the United States and its interests in the indo pacific region.

To strengthen this island chain, the US is ramping up military cooperation and partnerships with Japan and the Philippines, which are also cautious about China’s expansionist ambitions. Nevertheless, Beijing is swiftly modernising its navy, in order to enhance its ability to be able to break through this network of US allies. Thus, it is the strategic location of Taiwan which makes it immensely important to both sides in order to gain an edge over the other in the region.

Taiwan’s Tech Edge

Besides its strategic location, the rivalry is also about money. Economically, the small island also has an outsize importance for both China and the US, and at the center of this economic clout is TSMC: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. This company produces the world’s most advanced and sophisticated semiconductor chips making both the US and China dependent on them. These tiny chips are used in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced military systems and AI models. This technological centrality has made this small island indispensable to both the US and China. Any disruption or Chinese takeover could permanently shift economic tides against the US and it could lock the region into a new technological and economic order—one less open to Western trade and influence.

Taiwan’s Enduring Status Quo

Taiwan exists in a strange limbo, a situation that has existed for decades and shaped realities on the ground. Taiwan developed from a nationalist authoritarian regime into one of the strongest democracies in the region marked by competitive elections, free press, and progressive civil liberties. Taiwan was first in Asia to legalise same sex marriage. This ambiguous status neither fully independent nor under Beijing’s control has become the de facto reality. Last year a progressive party was re-elected for the third term, signaling to maintain this delicate balance.

Amid the ongoing rivalry between the US and China, many feel that Taiwan is only a pawn in this larger game. Regardless of external pressures, a strong sentiment runs across Taiwanese society that the island’s future should be decided by its people alone, through democratic means and without coercion. The island’s status remains unresolved but its democratic identity is firmly established.

Big Stakes for A Small Island

Taiwan represents ideological, historical, and strategic significance for both superpowers. It has embraced the US worldview, which promotes democracy and capitalism. China, on the other hand, is a one-party system with a socialist market economy. A significant Chinese narrative revolves around Taiwanese islands. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president views the reunification of Taiwan as an important step in addressing the aforementioned historical humiliation. This effort is a part of what’s known as ‘national rejuvenation’, aiming to make the Chinese nation a great power. For the US, supporting Taiwan also means keeping up key alliances in the region and promoting democratic ideals. If China invades and annexes Taiwan, we would witness democracy being snuffed out which could send chilling effects to democracies around the world. We would have questions being raised in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines on whether they can trust the United States for their security.

Given Taiwan’s strategic location and its symbolic worth, neither China nor the US can afford to back down, leaving the rest of the world as mere spectators in this unfolding superpower rivalry.