Roberto Clemente’s quote “When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on Earth” aptly fitted Ravinder Alwyn Sharma Thabah, an Indian Army Officers’ son, who used to be enamoured seeing his father wear the haloed Army Officer’s uniform every morning.
Thabah had decided very early on in his life that he had to don the Army Officer’s uniform one day. Thabah belonged to an illustrious and distinguished family. His father was an Army Officer from the Corps of Signals, and his mother was a teacher.
Thabah joined the Army as a soldier in the Corps of Signals. He prepared himself for the prestigious Army Cadet College (ACC) exam. The ACC exam is a very tough exam in which over 10,000 soldiers apply and only 45 are selected after a gruelling process involving a written exam, interview and medical checks.
For the determined and motivated Thabah, the tough ACC exam proved to be no deterrent and he joined the prestigious Army Cadet College in Dehradun. Thabah was allotted Gurez Company and in the next three years Tabah outshone others in cross country, basketball, gymnastics and athletics. He won various medals in these sports in the three-year training of ACC.
Thabah was a very good guitar player, and he would sing English and Hindi songs while playing the guitar. He was the star of the Social Evenings in ACC.
After a tough and strenous training of three years, Thabah passed out of ACC on 08 December 1990 as part of the ACC-56 Course. After four weeks leave, Thabah reported to the prestigious Indian Military Academy (IMA), Dehradun on 08 January 1991 for one year of pre-commission training as part of the 89 Regular Course.
Thabah was allotted Jessore Company in IMA. Continuing his good performance in ACC, Tabah did well in IMA too.
The Company Commander of Jessore Company at that time was a Parachute Commando Major. Thabah was in so much awe and admiration of his Company Commander, that when the time came to fill in the choice for Arms/Services, Thabah immediately gave his choice as the Parachute Regiment.
The Parachute Regiment of the Indian Army is an elite and coveted Regiment in which only the best of the best gets commissioned in.
RAS Thabah was commissioned as an Officer in the Parachute Regiment on 14 December 1991. His parents piped one star each on his either shoulder and thus 2/Lt RAS Thabah achieved his ambition of becoming an Officer in the finest Army of the World – the Indian Army.
After post commissioning leave Thabah, reported to the Parachute Battalion. He cleared the probation and was given the coveted Maroon Beret.
It is only the privilege of select few to wear the Maroon Beret in the Indian Army, and those select few are the best Officers and Soldiers of the Indian Army. Thabah had yet once again proved that he was among the best.
Thabah undertook various operations as part of his Parachute Battalion and was awarded the Chief of Army Staff’s Commendation Card and the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief’s Commendation Card for bravery.
After few years’ service in the Parachute Battalion, Thabah was transferred to Assam Regiment due to ill health.
At that time, the Assam Regiment Battalion was in the North-East in Assam, engaged in Counter Insurgency Operations. The experience of having served in a Parachute Regiment came handy and Thabah soon was in the fore front of taking part in the operations in the Assam Regiment Battalion too.
On 01 December 2002, intelligence inputs were received that few terrorists were to visit a village later at night the same day. Thabah and one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) immediately wore local dress and went to the village to gather more inputs. After some time, the villagers there become suspicious of them and thinking both of them to be terrorists, they both were surrounded by a mob and eventually lynched to death by the locals. Thus, Major RAS Thabah sacrificed his life in the Service of the Nation.
We pay homage to Major Ravinder Alwyn Sharma Thabah on this solemn day. You shall forever remain in our hearts and memories and will always be a source of inspiration to all of us. Our prayers for your Eternal Peace.
As the famous Rev. Aaron Kilbourn remarked “The dead soldier’s silence sings our National Anthem”.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army is an alumnus of NDA Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures and has also done MBA and LL.B and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media contributions. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
The tactical and strategic uses of missile technology has become the driving force of the news arms race in the 21st century. Russia and Iran are leading from the front, when it comes to integration of space technologies with modern warfare systems. The western countries which otherwise had an edge in the conventional arms race, seem to be falling behind in the hypersonic domain. This report takes an overview of the developments in this domain, as a sub-set of ongoing regional conflicts:
Iskander-M Missile system operationalized by Russia
On November 19, 2022 the Russian Ministry of Defense declared that all of its missile units had been rearmed with the ‘modern and unique’ Iskander-M Missile system.
The definition of “Modern and Unique” remains unexplained. The NATO calls the Iskander as SS-26 Stone, a tactical missile system that can be fitted with new missiles, improving its combat capabilities. The support infrastructure built for the Iskander system would likely last 30 years. Russians have used the Iskander-M to launch attacks against the strategic locations of the Ukrainian armed forces.
This development comes days after it was claimed that Moscow was dangerously low on missiles to attack Ukraine’s interior. So, the current statement can be seen also be seen as a power projection, rather than actual capability development. On November 07, 2022 Ukraine’s intelligence agencies claimed that Russia only had 120 modern Iskander missiles in its inventory.
Iskander-M missile system specifications:
Targets: Long-range artillery, command posts, communication hubs, missiles, multiple launch rocket systems, and airfields
Max. Range: 500 kilometers
Use started: 2014
Type: Fully operational ballistic missile
Equipment: Two 9M723K1 single-stage solid-propellant guided missiles. Additionally, the system can launch the SSC-7 and SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs).
Export variant: Iskander-E
Max. payload: 700 kilograms
Warheads: Conventional and Nuclear
Flight: Low trajectory, mid-course manoeuvring
Accuracy of hit: 2-5 mts.
The Russians are also supplying multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS for the rocket formations of both large and medium calibre of the Tornado family (Tornado-S MLRS of 300mm calibre and Tornado-G MLRS of 122mm calibre), with the self-propelled howitzers 2C19M2 “Msta-S.”
This warhead can fire in the “dump of fire” mode, which increases the density of fire and guarantees enemy damage by having multiple rounds launched from one gun at various angles.
Poland Missile Attack
“Two people were killed after Russian-made missiles landed in Poland”, according to news reports. But after confirmation from local sources, it turned out that the missile was not Russian; it was Ukrainian, which got mis-fired into Polish territory, while trying to counter the incoming Russian missiles. But the huge propaganda warfare unleashed via media channels is so huge, that people started believing it was a Russian missile.
The Polish government convened an emergency security meeting earlier this week and opted to increase its military readiness, by invoking the Article 4 of NATO, triggering an alliance meeting. This attack incident has been used to strengthen the war narrative of Zelensky, that the ongoing conflict will no more be limited to Ukraine only – it can spread to other countries of Europe. Even though NATO has been helping Ukraine, all out, in this war, NATO did not officially support Ukraine, as it is not a NATO member officially. Zelensky’s statement after this attack was: “this is an attack on collective security”, which gives a certain legitimacy for the NATO to intervene in the war.
Philippine’s Army Plans to upgrade its Air Defences
The Philippine Army (PA) is creating new units specifically focused on air defence operations to exemplify its commitment to be an all-around, go-to unit in dealing with various threats. This was stressed during the closing ceremony of the Army Artillery Regiment’s (AAR) capability development workshop in Palayan, Nueva Ecija over the weekend.
They wish to develop the AAR capability by 2030, that will be a role model for other army units to follow.
“The purpose was to formulate the program proposals for fires, air defense, and counter-swarm which include the missile regiment, short range air defense (SHORAD) battery, and the very short-range air defense (VSHORAD) battery”, the commanders of PA told the media.
In 2020, the PA activated the AAR’s 2nd Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battery and 2nd Field Artillery Battery, for anti-access and area denial capabilities, designed to provide air defense for Army units, areas, and installations against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or remotely piloted vehicles (drones) as well as fixed and rotary aircraft.
Russian Nuclear Missile with a Dummy Warhead Lands in Ukraine
The Strategic Communications Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (StratCom) said in a Telegram post dated November 18, 2022 that the Russian fired a nuclear capable Kh-55 missile, with a dummy warhead on Ukraine. The Kh-55 is a Soviet-era cruise missile developed in the 1970s and officially adopted into the service in 1983. Notably, the missile was manufactured in Ukraine. This attack was probably to test the air defence systems of Ukraine. The missile resembles the American Tomahawk, in terms of specifications.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia took over these missiles. Ukraine was left with 1612 missiles, but in the late 1990s, many of these missiles were transferred to Russia. Currently, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) remains the only operator of the Kh-55. The Ukrainian media suggested that perhaps the Russian military was running low on stocks of conventional Kh-555 missiles and decided to use the Kh-55 instead.
This could also be Moscow’s attempt at nuclear signaling to the West, considering President Vladimir Putin’s bellicose rhetoric since the onset of the Ukraine war in February. Meanwhile the Russian Black Sea fleet has been based at Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea, and a major Black Sea port. A most recent estimate by experts from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) suggests that Moscow has approximately 1,912 tactical nuclear warheads assigned for delivery by air, naval, and ground.
Iran Announces Successful Hypersonic Trial
Iran has announced the successful development a hypersonic missile capable of penetrating all defense systems, this Thursday.
“This hypersonic ballistic missile was developed to counter air defense shields,” Hajizadeh the IRG Commander said, quoted by Iran’s Fars news agency. “It will be able to breach all the systems of anti-missile defense”.
The general said he believed it would be decades before a system capable of intercepting the missile was developed, declaring it “a great generational leap in the field of missiles.”
While countries like the United States have developed systems designed to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles, the ability to track and take down a hypersonic missile remains a question.
North Korea’s test of a hypersonic missile last year sparked concerns about a race to acquire the technology. Russia currently leads the race to develop the missiles, followed by China and the United States. Iran seems to be catching up soon; may receive Russian and Chinese support in near future, to counter-balance the USA. Both Iran and Russia are targeted by stringent sanctions – they have responded to the sanctions by boosting cooperation in key areas to help prop up their economies.
Iran has also admitted that it had sent drones to Russia, but said it had done so before the Ukraine war. Western media says that Iran may soon send missiles as well to the Russians. Iran had also claimed in July 2022 that it had “the technical ability to build a nuclear bomb.” This follows Iran’s announcement on November 5 of the successful test flight of a rocket capable of propelling satellites into space.
Conclusion:
Thus, the emerging warfare scenario in the world will be centered around regional conflicts. It can be said that there will not be any full-scale wars. But the results of regional conflicts are going to be decided in the favour of the one who has a technological edge. The dimension of cyber and space will form an important component of this new era warfare. Sanctions and rhetoric may say otherwise, but back-channel support to allies will also continue. The regional balances of power have already started to shift towards the Indo-Pacific. As against the fully functional ‘alliance system’ of the previous century, the 21st century is witnessing the recurrence of the 19th century system of ‘secret military alliances’, wherein countries are helping each other with arms, secretly, via back channels. Hawkish states like the USA stand to gain the most from all of this – by arms sales, and by buying out the competition in the market. For sure, the security dilemma of all concerned nation-states is going to increase.
About the Author
Rahul Wankhede is a post-graduate in Defence and Strategic Studies with a gold medal. He has worked with think tanks and NGOs in domains of research, analysis and mentoring and is currently Assistant Professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India. The views expressed are personal.
A Canada based Tech Insights reported a breakthrough in the Chinese Semiconductor Industry. China based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is reported to have achieved the feat in advanced semiconductors by the production of 7nm chip or N+2 chip for MinerVA bitcoin mining company.This is considered as a great leap in the production of the advanced chip by a Chinese company. The next generation chip puts SMIC on par with advanced chip makers around the globe.
The 7nm Chips are a crucial component for the most recent consumer products including, AI, Fintech and 5G products. These high-end chips are used to build processors in building 5G base stations. Many 5G electronics companies have claimed to be using 7nm chips for their latest 5G handset, for example MediaTek multi-Mode chipset, this distinguishes other smartphones through System on Chips (SoC).
Moore’s law states that “the number of transistors on a silicon wafer will grow every two years due to the advancement in the technologies used for the manufacturing of chips”.
China has been able to provision for this in terms of the years taken to produce the chip. The factor that is in variance with the law is the technology utilisation.
Due to changing global dynamics and supply chain disruptions, attempts are made by countries, especially the US and China, to localise the industry. Being self-sufficient in all components of the chip manufacturing process is vital. China at present dominates the back-end manufacturing (assembly, test, and packaging). They lack design and manufacturing components.
China is resolved to build an economy which is self-reliant with special emphasis on all core technologies, like semiconductor, quantum computers and AI. Under President Xi Jinping several policy decisions have been focusing on achieving this self-sufficiency. In the speeches in the recently concluded 20th National Party congress, Xi mentions the word, technology at least 55 times.
‘Made in China 2025’, a People’s Republic of China led industrial policy, is aimed at enhancing China’s domestic chip industry. Providing subsidies and incentives China has been speeding up the development of domestic fabrication plants to localise the most vital elements of the technology supply chain. Another step towards this is the formation of ‘China National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund’ targeting exclusively semiconductor chips.
Tech Sight claims that the chip produced by SMIC is very similar to the 7nm chips by TSMC. This has been labelled as ‘Industrial espionage’. The west is worried about the extent to which China would go to ensure their technological independence is achieved.
The semiconductor Industry is a suitable example of a highly globalised world with each specialisation concentrated on one territory. The major Semiconductor players happen to be allies of the USA. Taiwan, South Korea, Netherlands, Japan. This provides the US with an opportunity to consistently deny China the high-end processors and technology.
To produce 7nm chips the Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) immersion tool is used by other leading chip makers like Intel, Samsung & TSMC. China reportedly still uses the Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (DUV), used to produce previous generations of semiconductors.
China has been deprived of the latest tool required to take a leap in the chip industry. The EUV monopolised by a Dutch company ASML has been restricted by the US in sharing the technology with China. It would be difficult for SMIC or any Chinese company to be economically competitive without the use of EUV, as the chips are made into perfection with continuous production. Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. (SMEE) is the leading lithography producer of China. SMEE is an ambitious plan of China to replace ASML. The fact that China has been able to produce the latest chip with the absence of technological support is a sign of worry for the west and an opportunity in disguise to countries like India trying to make a mark in the semiconductor industry.
Advantage for India
To prevent Beijing from achieving a technological edge over Washington the latter has been imposing a range of sanctions against transfer of technologies and advanced semiconductors to China. The US wants to desist China using the American chips to boost their military. The Chip Act 2022 by the United States of America that came into effect on August 9, 2022, is aimed to boost US competitiveness, innovation, and national security and to reinvent itself as a hub for the semiconductor industry. It focuses on limiting Chinese growth to contest this position.
With US legislation clamping down on China, the US would want to find an alternative source for the semiconductor manufacturing at an affordable rate. India with its improving semiconductor ecosystem would be a preferred destination for the American companies.
China has specialised in the assembly, testing, marketing and packaging (ATMP) part of semiconductor production which is a capital- and labour-intensive process. India can be developed as a safe alternative to this process as the looming fear over China denying the supply of these finished chips as a retaliation to US ban is on the high. Especially with the government framing schemes to develop an ecosystem in the country and companies like Tata and Vedanta’ increased interest over the manufacturing of semiconductors will boost the semiconductor industry in India.
India can fill up the production gap brought by the shutdown of semiconductor facilities in Japan, South Korea, USA, and China by setting up its own manufacturing facilities. duction gaps by setting up its own manufacturing facilities.
The US and other major players are looking at diversifying its supply chain especially for semiconductors as it poses serious risks as a handful of companies hold the majority share for semiconductor manufacturing. The trade war between the US and China does not seem to be dwindling in the immediate future. This is the opportunity India can tap into. Many large semiconductor companies have set up their offshore centres which specialise into the design part of chips. More than 20% of the world’s semiconductor designers work out of India. Venturing into chip designing would be a boost for the Indian semiconductor ecosystem. India needs to invest in R&D and train her labour force with skill competence. As suggested by vice president of the Indian Electronics and Semiconductor Association, Sunil G. Acharya, “There is an opportunity for the Indian Industry to explore opportunities to become a materials supplier to the global FABs and ATMPs”. The government must incentivise the production of such components by the MSME sector of India.
According to the statement by the Indian Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, “Building Indian capabilities in semiconductor manufacturing is an imperative for industrial growth, digital sovereignty, technological leadership, national security, self-reliance and for India’s goals to be a significant player in the global electronics and semiconductor value chains”.
Conclusion
The global race for technological breakthrough is taking new dimensions. With increased geopolitical crises brewing across the world, the pandemic, the trade war and Ukraine war, the world has been witnessing the downside of globalisation. Nations are in a race to localise the manufacturing sector and secure their supply and value chain. In such a time a breakthrough like this by China is being assessed very closely. The question will be how much can China move forward without the technological component from the West? Can China find any alternatives to continue and sustain the feat they achieved? The increasing imposition of US sanctions on China, especially after achieving the 7nm production, is an opportunity for India to develop as a go to destination for Chip industry.
About the Author
Sapna Elsa Abraham is a Research officer at the Chennai Centre for China Studies. She completed her graduation in History, Economics and Political Science from Christ (Deemed to be University) and holds Post Graduation in International Relations from the University of Madras. Her research work focuses on “Indian Naval Diplomacy” and “The Influence of Portuguese rule on Malayalam language”. Her area of interest includes Maritime Security, Environmental Security and Diplomacy including International Organisations. She tweets at @elsa_sapna. The views expressed are personal.
Communists entered Beijing in 1949 and their leader, Mao Zedong announced the establishment of People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949. Mao’s announcement ended the costly full-scale war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT). This protracted conflict, which started immediately after the Second World War, was subsequently put to an end with the CCP ruling over Beijing and the Kuomintang retreating to Taiwan on 7 December 1949. Roughly 2 millions of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops, besides many civilians, fled the advancing People Liberation Army of the Chinese Communist Party. The United States of America suspended its diplomatic ties with China and therefore emerged what is today known as ‘One China Policy’, with Mao declaring that no country could have diplomatic ties with both the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. Much of the world back then recognized Taipei, while India and the United Kingdom recognized the newly established system in Beijing. The US took decades to recognize a communist dispensation in Beijing, since it was a tussle of recognition between a capitalist state and a communist state for them, which was the basis of the Cold war.
11 nations severed their diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1971, while the figure was 14 for the year 1972. A crucial development occurred in 1971, when the United Nations General Assembly passed resolution 2758 on the “Restoration of the lawful rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations”. The resolution recognised the PRC as the “only lawful representative of China to the UN.” Until then ROC continued to hold China seat in the UN, the resolution expelled “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek (Taiwan) from the place they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all its organisations.” It transferred all of China’s rights to the PRC, including the permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council.
There was a marked improvement in the bilateral relations between the ROC and the PRC in the 1980s, including the conduct of indirect trade, despite the underlying tensions. During the 1990s, when Taiwan was democratizing and carving out a separate national identity. The PRC adopted a “Three Exhaust Policy”: exhaust the states that recognise Taipei, exhaust Taiwan’s international political space, and exhaust Taiwan’s bargaining chips.
To understand the dynamics of the shifting PRC’s hostility towards the Taiwanese, we need to analyse factions in authority in Taiwan and their ideologies. Ma Ying-Jeou was elected as Taiwanese president in 2008. He was able to carve out a diplomatic truce with the CCP and pushed the cross-strait cooperation to a greater height. Reiterating 1992 Consensus, Ma ensured that he never poked the CCP where it hurt them the most. 1992 consensus holds that mainland China and Taiwan form part of ‘One China’ but allows for differing perceptions of sovereignty; in return, China offered a diplomatic truce by not trying to actively seek to poach Taiwan’s allies. This was evident with Gambia, which broke ties with Taiwan in 2013 and sought to link with China, but China held initially held back.
However, the diplomatic truce ended with the election of Tsai Ing-wen as the Taiwanese president in January, 2016. “A person who disliked attracting attention from others”, Tsai writes about her years in academic, is now a leader who’s standing against China. Carving out a separate (democratic) identity for Taiwan, Tsai has provoked the CCP, which encouraged them to actively engage in poaching Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. China eventually re-established the ties that Gambia has been seeking for 3 years. Today, only 13 countries and one territory recognise Taiwan.
TUSSLE OVER RECOGNITION
To understand China’s viewpoint, we can refer to the White Paper–The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue published by the Office of the Charge’ d; Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Lithuania. China views Taiwan not as an adversary, but an “inalienable part of China”, with the current administration being “only a local authority in Chinese territory”, not the rulers of a sovereign country. A size of 36,000 sq. km, a populace of 23 million, and a democratically elected government makes Taiwan meet three out of the four traditional characteristics of a nation state, The fourth being the sovereignty, Beijing will oppose Taiwan’s sovereignty by poaching most of the Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, if not all.
Taiwan’s Diplomatic Web: source Statista
TAIWAN IN THE ERA OF TSAI ING-WEN
Under President Tsai’s New South Bound Policy, Taiwan is seeking to broaden exchanges with the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states, six South Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand on economic and trade cooperation, talent cultivation, resource sharing and regional links. Its official website states it has full membership in 40 intergovernmental organisations and their subsidiaries, and observer status in 25 others. Emphasizing the benefits, Taiwan actively pushes out its representation to these organisations. It participates in the Olympics under the tag ‘Chinese Taipei’, with a specific Olympic flag, and an anthem. It ensures not to irk the CCP, yet aims to preserve its distinctive identity. Geopolitical affairs expert Elizabeth Larus reveals how these allies in various organisations act as proxies for Taiwan.
BEIJING’S HOSTILITY TOWARDS TAIWAN’S DIPLOMATIC ALLIES
Beijing has sought different tactics to sever Taiwan’s diplomatic ties with others. Primary tool and the most effective has been the ‘chequebook diplomacy’, with its sizeable economic and trade relationship with various countries. Beijing intimidates Taiwan’s allies with trade barriers, non-trade barriers and other means to compel them to align them with Chinese interest. Solomon Islands, for example, withdrew its recognition of Taiwan in 2019 because by then China was its largest trading partner (at USD 375 million annually)
Palau, which still continues to recognise Taiwan, has as much as 40 percent of its GDP share coming from tourism, half of which are visitors coming from China. China ‘weaponised tourism’ against Palau in 2018, which disturbed Palau’s internal politics, some factions advocating a closer relationship with the PRC.
‘Weaponization of aid contributes’ towards a range of less developed countries is another tactic the CCP employs to poach countries to its camp. Grenada’s 2005 decision to recognise Beijing, for example, came attached to Chinese funding for housing, healthcare, scholarships, and the co-hosting of the 2007 Cricket World Cup. Dominica switched diplomatic recognition in 2004 and found itself the beneficiary of USD 112 million in Chinese aid.
South Africa was the last major power recognising Taiwan in the late 1990s. Its flourishing trade with China and fears of a Chinese veto on its future application to join the UNSC council led it to severe ties with Taiwan. ‘Beijing’s international stature’ has been effectively leveraged to manipulate and intimidate others to align with China’s interest.
‘Leveraging the Chinese ethnic diaspora’ to realise Chinese interest in various countries has been one of the most potent tools to limit Taiwan’s diplomatic space. In the Solomon Islands, the Chinese diaspora (Thomas Chan played a prominent role) proved critical to the long-term development of ties, which culminated in formal recognition for the PRC in 2019. Vanuatu’s Prime Minister Serge Vohor resigned because of the crisis created by Chinese lobbyists in the Parliament on Vanuatu’s Taiwan outreach in 2004.
China’s evolving Taiwan policy is to disrupt, isolate and constrain Taiwan. Recently, China has been extremely hostile regarding Taiwan’s presence on international platforms, including apolitical ones. In 2016, China pressurised International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to not invite Taiwan in Montreal for the conference, despite having 4 major international airports, which represent 23 million Taiwanese. Similar ploy is employed beyond international governance, for e.g. Olympic Committee of Asia blocked Taichung City from hosting the 2019 East Asian Youth Games at the PRC’s instigation.
Countering China with similar tactics like chequebook diplomacy, Taiwan, during the 1980s and 1990s, used all its relative economic muscle to aggressively lure and retain Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. During that time, its status as an investor and a donor played an important role in shaping its strategy. For example, Nauru switched diplomatic recognition to Taipei as soon as it realized Beijing was unwilling to fund its bankrupt national airline. In Solomon Islands, Taiwan contributed to “constituency development funds” for individual members of parliament that were suspected of being slush funds. There are reports that indicate Taiwan providing direct cash payments to Nauru’s lawmakers to keep the island to their side.
Taiwan’s chequebook diplomacy backfired when it lost an estimated $30 million in a failed attempt to acquire diplomatic recognition from Papua New Guinea. Beijing’s growing economy is further undermining Taiwan’s aids and contributions. Chinese aid to Pacific island makes up around 10 times of that of Taiwan’s. Since then, Taiwan has been on the back foot and recalculating its strategy.
In 1999, liberalist DPP released a white paper inculcating a new strategy–“flexible internationalism”. First, it involves pivoting away from an exclusive focus on formal diplomatic ties. It argues that “the interaction between nations no longer relies solely on maintaining formal, official relationships.” Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation conducted a poll and found that 60 percent of the population was not concerned about Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic relationships; only 32 percent were. It reflects that the Taiwanese public support the strategy, while interviews with serving and retired Taiwanese diplomats revealed that, while Taiwan is focusing on cultivating formal diplomatic ties, its foreign policy has moved beyond it.
Taiwan’s focus now is to expand its civil society relationships and build substantive informal ties with big powers, like US and India. Forums like Global Cooperation and Training Framework(GCTF), co-founded with US, have allowed Taiwan to participate in international forums and counter disinformation and cybercrimes, and promote development. Organizations like the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and International Cooperation and Development Fund play a vital role in forging solid, informal ties. Cooperation with international NGOs is another aspect of the new foreign policy.
As analyst Jaques DeLisle puts it, “The more Taiwan can walk and talk and act like a member of a regime that is open primarily or exclusively to states, the more hope it has of securing the benefits of state (or nearly state-like status) in the international system.” Despite its exclusion from various international bodies, Taiwan attempts to cooperate with international regulations. This strategy is termed “as-if” participation: Taiwan functions as if it were a fully recognised member of the international community. Taiwan has actively sought membership in international organisations, particularly in WHO, ICAO and Interpol.
Democracy diplomacy, neighbourhood diplomacy, Civilian diplomacy, humanitarian diplomacy and environmental diplomacy are all different spheres of activity clubbed under ‘non- traditional diplomatic work’. Democracy diplomacy, traditionally carried out through the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, seeks to build international cooperation based on democracy and human rights. Neighbourhood diplomacy, reaching out to middle powers in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), is an attempt to broaden Taiwan’s sources of diplomatic support. President Tsai’ New Southbound Policy focuses on building traditionally underdeveloped partnerships, India is focused in the policy.
WHY SHOULD THE WORLD CARE ABOUT TAIWAN
China in early 2022, signed a defence pact with Solomon island, which had diplomatic relations with Taiwan till 2019. The security agreement allows the island to be used as a Chinese port of call for the Chinese navy, which was earlier a zone of US and Australian sphere of influence. Taiwan is a crucial part of the first island chain which restricts Chinese aggression closer to home.
Kirbati island severed its diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2019. The island which was once used by the US as a base during the Second World War is now dominated by Chinese who are redeveloping its military installation on the island. To contain China, Taiwan and its strait plays a vital role. Recent transits of US Navy warships through Taiwan straits have irked the CCP.
Taiwan’s COVID-19 protocol received global praise, even as it was denied the observer status at the 2021 meeting of the World Health Assembly. Controversy also erupted around the role Taiwan could have played, after reports emerged it was among the first territories to realise the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus. Taiwan’s exclusion from international governance, particularly from WHO and ICAO, can prove detrimental to its 23 million citizens from receiving timely and crucial updates regarding health and safety. Finally, as a Taiwanese diplomat argues, the exclusion of Taiwan’s 23 million residents from international governance regimes both undermines the credibility of those regimes and impinges on the legitimate aspirations of the Taiwanese people.
About the Author
Rakshith Shetty is currently pursuing his Masters in Diplomacy, Law and Business at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P Jindal Global University. The focus areas of his studies include Indo-China studies, Data science, foreign policy, geopolitical risk analysis and corporate threat intelligence. He is a research intern at the Centre for North East Asian Studies of O.P. Jindal Global University. He tweets at @Rakshithreads. The author has informed GSDN that this article has also been published in CNEAS. The views expressed are personal.
One of the biggest fallouts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is that globally there is a rethink of heavy dependence on the dollar, which is the globally accepted trading currency. The sanctions on Russia have had the desired effect and China whose ambitions to annex Taiwan is an open secret now is closely and carefully monitoring the economic condition of Russia so as to derive lessons from it.
On November 09, 2022 the Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to the Joint Operations Command Centre of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) said the Chinese Army known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has to prepare for war and fight to win it. This was Xi’s first address to his two million strong military which is also the largest in the world, after being elected China’s President for a record breaking third time.
As the next Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meeting in 2027 approaches nearer, there will be immense pressure on Xi Jinping to prove his worthiness of getting elected for the fourth time in a row. With the Chinese economy in doldrums and the Covid-19 lockdowns still happening in China due to its mishandling of the pandemic, Xi will look for a military option to wean away the attention of the Chinese citizens from the economy and lockdown issues.
Taiwan being a highly emotive issue for the Chinese, will be the best big bet Xi can put on for his smooth passage as China’s President for the fourth time. Though, an attack on Taiwan in the near future is not ruled out but Xi will be handicapped in taking this option as USA has stood like a protective shield over Taiwan.
So, the next option for Xi is to attack the eastern Ladakh area of India which saw bloody clashes between the PLA and the Indian Army in June 2020.
Either way, a military option is the only recourse for Xi Jinping for his way to power once again in 2027.
China fully understands that whether Taiwan or India are attacked, USA and the West will immediately levy sanctions on it as has been done on Russia, hence it has started purchasing gold in droves.
According to the report for the period July-September 2022 released by the World Gold Council, 399.3 tonnes of gold were purchased in this quarter, which is a steep jump from 186 tonnes purchased in the previous quarter and 87.7 tonnes purchased in the first quarter of 2022.
The gold purchased in just nine months of 2022 is the highest gold purchased any year since 1967.
Out of the 399.3 tonnes purchased in July-September 2022, the central banks of Turkey, Uzbekistan and India have purchased 31.2 tonnes, 26.1 tonnes and 17.7 tonnes respectively which totals to 75 tonnes. With nearly 325 tonnes of gold being purchased by unidentified buyers, the fingers are yet again pointing at China who has not reported any gold buying activity since September 2019.
The People’s Bank of China has reportedly purchased over 2000 tonnes of gold from the Central Bank of Russian Federation.
Earlier, from 2009 to 2015 China did not report any gold purchasing activity and then stunned the world in 2015 by disclosing that it has about 600 tonnes of gold. China is building up its gold reserves to take on the economic onslaught that will be leashed by USA and the West whenever it attacks Taiwan or India in future.
These are clear warning signs that the global geopolitical situation is going to get more precarious in the times ahead and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is not the last major geopolitical turbulence that the world is witnessing.
Navy Sea Ghost Concept of the South Korean Navy: source Internet
In one of its biggest announcements on its founding day, the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy on its 77th Founding Day on November 11, 2022 announced the “Navy Sea Ghost Concept” which is in the Korean language and when translated in English it is the “Guardian Harmonized with Operating manned Systems and Technology based unmanned Systems”.
This announcement by Admiral Lee Jong-ho the ROK Navy Chief of Naval Operations brought to fore once again that for any navy to be a potent force, it has to adopt and adapt the advancements in technology. Though stealth and secrecy has always been an important and integral part of any military operation, this concept is path breaking as perhaps for the first time any Navy has officially announced such a doctrine publicly.
During the unveiling of this doctrine Admiral Lee Jong-ho said “The Navy Sea Ghost concept revealed today, which is based on manned and unmanned Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, is a game changer that will dominate the future battle space. We will devote our efforts and resources into (realising this vision) and creating a strong and powerful navy”.
The prolonged Russia-Ukraine War has yet again proved that modern wars have to be short and swift. Sun Tzu a famous Chinese military strategist of the ancient times had remarked “If victory takes long, it blunts the military and grinds down its sharpness” is equally relevant in modern warfare as it was then.
The India-Pakistan War of 1971 which lasted a mere 14 days from December 03-16, 1971 is an apt and appropriate example of how short duration wars will result victory in assured victory as was evident with the Indian Army defeating the Pakistan Army leading to the creation of a new nation, Bangladesh.
To ensure that the modern wars don’t get prolonged latest technology including the use of AI and unmanned systems have to be included in the military doctrines to maximise their efficacy and effectiveness.
The Navy Sea Ghost concept is a result of two years of research as part of the “National Defence Revolution 4.0” proposed by the Ministry of National Defence, ROK. It entails a lean mobile force involving seamless integration between the manned and unmanned systems. Also, part of this concept is to secure communications between its various assets so that the operations are not compromised at any stage.
This concept is of immense importance in the modern warfare and the global navies should take a note of this and formulate their own doctrines keeping in view their threat perceptions.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific region are a stark reminder that beefing up its own security is the only way to ensure peace in the region a nation is located in.
After the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the global attention shifted to the war in Ukraine. This came at the cost of ignoring other regional conflicts, increasing arms race in the space domain, and role of non-state actors in supporting the geo-political schemes of nation-states. Over the past few months many such important happenings have got ignored, pointing towards the inadequate efforts being devoted to geopolitical analysis. This article attempts to analyze the major developments that have taken place world over, in terms of increase in military capabilities of nations and the increased threat of regional conflicts happening in Asia and Europe.
Japanese Capability Upgrade under the USA
Japan is planning to deploy drones with ultra-long endurance for detection, tracking and targeting of approaching missiles, even hypersonic ones, from the Chinese side. Sensing an opportunity in this sector, the European defence MNC, Airbus started marketing the solar-powered Zephyr stratospheric aircraft in the Japanese market.
Using the Zephyr stratospheric platform, Airbus HAPS and the Japanese business Space Compass will provide 4G/5G mobile communication and Earth surface observation services. Zephyr is a member of the family of so-called “pseudo-satellites,” or platforms that combine the benefits of aeroplanes and satellites. On the move for weeks or months at an altitude of 20,000 metres or higher, these devices make direct radio connections between locations more than 1,000 kilometres apart. Japan also plans to deploy unmanned stratospheric planes as part of its anti-missile defence as early as 2027. Apart from these drones, Japan is also planning to acquire long range missiles for its air defence systems. The Japanese requirement as of now, is to acquire 1,500 long-range missiles within the next 10 years for counterstrike capability.
The Americans have already deployed their HIMARS systems on the Nansei islands in Japan, including the Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missiles, used by the Ground Self Defense Forces.
Japan’s existing missile defence system needs to identify Chinese and North Korean hypersonic missiles in advance. Tokyo aims to utilise dozens of long-endurance drones outfitted with infrared sensors to construct a detection network capable of scanning the surroundings of Japanese territory, including Japanese islands in the East China Sea, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Japan also aims to construct a “space layer” by launching 50 tiny spy satellites with infrared sensors beginning next year. The Japanese are also constructing a “space layer” alongside the United States.
The USA is also said to have offered the Tomahawk cruise missile to Japan, till the time they acquire their own missile systems.
Japan aims to acquire long-range standoff missiles for operational and strategic purposes, to engage targets that are beyond the enemy’s range of attack, in the next five years. The subsequent ten years would be focused on securing advanced equipment to produce the required 1,500 missiles. The mainstay of the standoff long-range missiles will be the domestically produced Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles. Its range will be extended from about 100 km to more than 1,000 km— a distance sufficient to reach the Chinese mainland.
Furthermore, the Defense Ministry may develop a submarine-launch version of these long-range missiles. Tomahawks can already be launched from submarines, and the ministry will explore the possibility of developing similar technology for the Type 12.
In addition, the government may also build an experimental warship that would be larger than conventional types and could carry long-range missiles. The ministry also plans to deploy high-speed glide bombs, that can fly at more than Mach 5 by 2026, to protect outlying islands.
Yemen and Iran
The US Navy announced in a press release that they seized around 70 tons of missile fuel, going by ship from Iran to Yemen. A United Nations arms embargo has prohibited weapons transfers to the Houthis since 2014. Despite that, Iran long has been transferring rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, missiles and other weaponry to the Houthis via dhow shipments. Though Iran denies arming the Houthis, independent experts, Western nations and UN experts have traced components seized aboard the detained vessels, back to Iran. The US Navy said, the missile fuel components were hidden among bags of fertilizer aboard a ship bound to Yemen from Iran.
The Navy said the amount of ammonium perchlorate discovered could fuel more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles, the same weapons Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have used to target both, forces allied to the country’s internationally recognised government, and the Saudi-led coalition that supports them. During a weeklong search, sailors of the US Navy discovered bags of ammonium perchlorate hidden inside of what initially appeared to be a shipment of 100 tons of urea. The ship was intercepted on a route usually used to smuggle illicit weapons and drugs from Iran to Yemen.
“The EU has strong reasons to doubt the word of Iranian authorities even though there is still no evidence Iran is supplying missiles to Russia”, the Portuguese Foreign Affairs Minister João Gomes Cravinho is said to have told reporters.
European foreign ministers adopted sanctions against 29 individuals and three entities following the repression in Iran and the sale of drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine. Although, the minister did mention that EU has no evidence against Iran, which could prove that Iran did supply missiles to the Russians. But the minister insisted, that Iran had supplied drones to Russia. The issue will be back on the table at the meeting of EU heads of diplomacy in December.
Iran has found itself in more trouble, more so, after it was found that a few people died, and others were injured in a missile attack by Iran on the Iraqi Kurdistan area.
Iran launched strikes with drones and missiles, targeting centres of terrorist parties in the northern region of Iraq, Iranian Fars News Agency reported.
The headquarters of Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including “Komala” and the Iranian Communist Party, was also bombed by a drone. Five Iranian missiles targeted a building used by the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran. The United Nations Mission in Iraq, “UNAMI”, condemned the Iranian bombing, calling on the Iraqi and Iranian sides to dialogue on “security concerns”.
Since the outbreak of protests in Iran, the Revolutionary Guards have launched several attacks on the bases of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which Iran accuses of fomenting protest. In September 2022, the Revolutionary Guard confirmed the continuation of its operations in Iraqi Kurdistan “as long as the bases of terrorist groups are not removed” and as long as the regional authorities “do not act in accordance with their obligations”. These attacks continued despite warnings from the United States and the United Nations, which appear to be more rhetorical than before.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting at the G20 summit in Bali. Biden reportedly told Xi that the U.S. will have to take action to protect the U.S. and its allies if North Korea escalates tensions. Among the wide range of topics discussed was North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
The U.S. president, however, repeatedly stressed that he is unclear whether or not China has the capacity to control North Korea. This came as China and Russia continue to oppose taking joint action at the UN Security Council against North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches. Beijing and Moscow initially supported sanctions, after North Korea’s last nuclear test in 2017. The two have argued that the resumption of massive military exercises by the U.S. and South Korea triggered North Korea to respond with missiles. Washington and Beijing remain at odds over key issues, ranging from Taiwan and Hong Kong to human rights, trade and technology. During the meeting, Xi stressed that the Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s primary interests, calling the matter the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations.
Missile Shortage Hampers Further Russian Strikes
“The Russian army is not resorting to massive strikes against Ukraine because it is experiencing a lack of cruise and ballistic missiles”, a Ukrainian military spokesman told reporters this week. “The Russians had not resorted to massive strikes last week and hardly used Shahid-136 cruise missiles or Iranian drones”, as per the source. The Russians are said to be experiencing a certain shortage of weapons, particularly, the Iskanders, X555, X101 missiles, and Kalibr missiles. Russians had launched around 15 Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukraine, last month but may not have got sufficient time to replenish the war wastage stocks.
At the same time, some Kalibr missiles have been spotted in the Black Sea, which indicates that the future attacks on Ukraine may come from the sea side.
The Ukrainian frontline towns have been constantly bombarded with rocket artillery and S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. The shelling of Bakhmut and Avdiyivika towns in Donetsk Region has been relentless. The Russian advance seems to be taking breathing time, before re-building its forces in the region. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on international partners to increase the supply of air defense and missile defense systems to Ukraine, in his virtual address to the G20 Summit. According to Zelensky, “about 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was destroyed with Russian missiles and Iranian drones used by Russian military”. The purpose of these attacks was “to prevent Ukraine’s electricity exports to neighbouring countries, which could have significantly helped them to stabilize the energy situation and reduce prices for consumers”, as per the official statements. At the same time, the Ukrainian side offered to send a mission of UN experts to the critical energy infrastructure area of Ukraine “to assess the scope of damage and the needs for restoration, as well as to prevent their further destruction”.
Conclusion
Clearly, the centre of gravity of the global geopolitics has now shifted to the Indo-Pacific region. Regional conflicts are once again assuming primacy in the regional balance of power. Iran, Russia, Ukraine will see prolonged conflict at least for the next six months. Japan, under the US umbrella is steadily increasing its capabilities, to balance against China and North Korea. The tag of ‘self-defence forces’ in Japan is now only for name sake, the actual military capabilities of Japan have grown steadily over the past many decades under the American protection. Meanwhile, the UNSC and other international watchdogs, which were formed for peacekeeping purposes, keep watching as an anxious entity, to which no one seems to be paying any heed to. Like the World War II delegitimized the League of Nations, one major conflict in this part of the world will surely drive a nail in the UNO’s coffin – UNO would not be dissolved like the League was, but for sure the authority of the UNO in resolving global conflicts will be severely undermined.
About the Author
Rahul Wankhede is a post graduate in Defence and Strategic Studies with a gold medal. Rahul has worked with think tanks and NGOs in domains of research, analysis and mentoring and is currently Assistant Professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India. The views expressed are personal.
The domain of long-range artillery and missile systems is rapidly evolving in this decade of the 21st century. The wars in Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan have seen a good amount of use of deadly missiles and precision guided munitions that can strike with pinpoint accuracy. The new development in this domain has mainly happened in the fields of navigation, warheads and propulsion systems. What’s more interesting is that developing countries like India are leading ahead of other nations in missile technology. This article takes an overview of the major developments in this domain of warfare, globally. As these missiles get more frequently used, the military-industrial complex is having a good time due to all time high profits. But this is dangerous for a peaceful world due to increased violence and regional conflicts.
India
The joint venture mode of production seems to have worked out very well for India. It is one of the hallmarks of the long partnership with Russia. The Brahmos missile (2650 kgs, 290+kms range) which is the world’s fastest supersonic cruise missile as on date, is a product of this joint venture. It has become more potent now with extended range versions of 450km and 600 kms which have been tested successfully. The manufacturers now want to increase the missile’s range up-to 1500 kms, with reduced weight and increased warheads. Plans are on to export some versions of the Brahmos to Southeast Asian countries. The joint venture also aims to achieve exports worth five billion dollars in the supersonic cruise missile market. A deal has already been signed with the Philippines earlier this year regarding the same, while negotiations are on with other nations in the region.
This will definitely alter the balance of power in the region vis a vis China. But the export order will also need a confirmation from Russia since it is a joint venture. India’s careful position on Ukraine can be linked to this export issue, since it is in India’s interest to not to anger the Russians. India has recently also successfully test fired the Agni Prime missile and the submarine launched K15 missile. Foreign vendors like Dassault aviation have also shown interest in India made technology to manufacture missiles. These will be mostly exported to the western countries thus bringing India at par with the developed countries. India is expected to increase investments in the R&D side to produce better weapons. The new missiles will also have to be integrated on major platforms like fighter jets, ships and trucks.
USA
The U.S. Marine Corps has completed live-fire tests of a medium-range air defense prototype that uses Israeli-made Iron Dome Tamir missiles. USA is planning to induct this system soon. The Tamir missile was able to shoot down a variety of targets in the air when launched from the Corps’ Medium-Range Intercept Capability system. The missiles were also tested in a rapid-fire mode. The MRIC destroyed multiple simulated cruise missiles approaching simultaneously at different angles and speeds. The Marines currently use the Raytheon-made Stinger missile system which can intercept threats at a range of a few miles while the Tamir missiles can intercept targets up to 70 kilometres. These are produced by Raytheon, an American defence MNC. The US Marines since long had desired to have an interceptor system of their own, to fill the service’s gaps in medium-range air defense to gain the ability to repel aerial threats at a longer range.
North Korea
North Korea has continued its saga of test firing ballistic missiles. Japan’s Defense Ministry said – it was North Korea’s 22nd missile launch this year. The missiles came from the Pyongyang area towards the country’s east coast, and landed in the Sea of Japan, according to South Korean and Japanese officials. The missiles flew at a height of 50km (30 miles) for 400kms (250 miles) before landing in the Sea of Japan, in areas outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. North Korea has conducted a record number of weapons tests this year and analysts see the increased pace of testing as an effort to build its ballistic weapons capacity, as well as to take advantage of a world distracted by the Ukraine conflict and other crises. Nuclear tests and ballistic missile launch by North Korea have long been banned by the United Nations Security Council, but it continues testing, to show the world that it still has some good deterrence against the USA.
Europe
Lithuania has been looking to purchase missile defence systems for its short-range air defence system RBS 70. They are buying Bolide and Mk2 missiles from SAAB, a Swedish firm.
In western Europe, the French navy has bought anti-ship missiles, a new variant named Exocet MM 40 Block 3C from MBDA. The total order of 55 missiles, out of which 10 have been delivered. 44 missile upgrade kits are also on order for the MM40 Block 3 version – to convert them into 3C version, if needed. It has a new digital radio frequency seeker, made by Thales. This seeker observes smaller differences in velocity, much better than traditional technology, thus reducing signal interference. The missile also has an extended range of 200 kms and a GPS navigation to attack coastal targets. The new missile is immune to jamming and can identify a target within a group of targets. New IR seekers equipped missiles like the LRASM by Lockheed Martin also possess the capability to strike a designated target in a particular area. The Indian BrahMos also has similar features at a much lower cost, per unit.
In eastern Europe, Ukraine was observed using the Swedish RBS-17 coastal defense missile system for land attacks by the Ukrainian Army. The RBS-17, sometimes referred to as ‘Robot 17’ and ‘Hellfire Shore Defense System’ (HSDS) uses a derivative of the U.S. 114C Hellfire anti-tank missile and was sent to Ukraine by Sweden in an aid package. It is primarily designed for coastal defense role — defending against amphibious landings and shallow water threats — but Ukrainian forces used it well against the land targets. The RBS-17 is man-portable and requires minimal set-up. It has a tripod-like ground firing and targeting system and a compact launcher. It is a laser-guided missile system designed for precision with laser designators and optical scopes to spot and lase the target at which the missile is being fired. It has a 20-pound (9 kg) warhead and can strike a target at a range of around five miles (8 km).
Ukraine is also seen using the U.S.-made M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, better known as HIMARS which is a lightweight long range artillery mobile launcher that is mounted on military vehicles.
Russia
Russia’s military has been seen using the newest Rubezh-M mobile coastal defense missile (MCDM) system during the special military operation in Ukraine, launching the weapon’s missiles from Crimea. The Rubezh-ME lies on a 6×6 all-terrain truck, which carries a four-cell launch unit for Kh-35UE anti-ship missiles, a beyond-the-horizon radar detecting surface target, and a fire-control system. The system is relatively compact and requires no external target designation system to open fire. The Russians have also employed high intensity warheads on their missiles for area damage.
Japan
Japan has only about 60% of missile stockpiles deemed sufficient to intercept enemies’ ballistic missiles, the Defense Ministry has said, in a call for urgent replenishment amid military threats from North Korea and China. China is also believed to have about 1,900 medium-range ballistic missiles and 300 medium-range cruise missiles capable of reaching Japan, according to a U.S. Defense Department analysis. The Japanese are also concerned about the soaring costs for anti-ballistic missiles per unit due to cutting-edge technologies used for them as a cause of the insufficient stockpiles.
Australia
Lockheed Martin is investing $74 million in Australia on a project to detect incoming missile threats. The Australian ‘national integrated air and missile defence (IAMD) ecosystem’ will be buying missiles developed in this project. It is a $2.7 billion project to revolutionise the RAAF’s ability to monitor missile threats. Lockheed is competing against rival Northrop Grumman for this project. The prime’s new investment would focus on two primary areas — a national IAMD centre serving as a physical hub, and an R&D pipeline to facilitate sovereign innovation through small and medium-sized enterprises, and science, technology, engineering and mathematics activities. This would include supporting real-time feedback from war fighters, allowing Australian industry to develop solutions in response to changing requirements.
Conclusion
The world is again seeing a covert arms race in the domain of missiles and long-range artillery. Countries are developing more lethal weapons, and exporting the same to others in the region. Since such sales do not get banned under any non-proliferation regime, their spread cannot be stopped easily. These weapons will definitely increase the security dilemma of the nations which do not possess them.
About the Author
Rahul Wankhede is a post graduate in Defence and Strategic Studies with a gold medal. Rahul has worked with think tanks and NGOs in the domains of research, analysis and mentoring and is currently Assistant Professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India. The views expressed are personal.
In a surprising and shocking turn of events that can signal tough and turbulent times for the world ahead, two people were killed in a missile attack in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, nearing the border with Ukraine at 15.40 pm UTC on November 15, 2022.
While the Ukraine and Polish authorities have said that this attack was caused by Russian missiles, Russia has ruled out any involvement in this incident. Meanwhile the US President Joe Biden currently in Bali, Indonesia for the G20 Summit spoke to the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg telephonically and held an emergency meeting in Bali with the leaders of some of the NATO members currently attending the G20 Summit like Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany.
The Polish missile attack can be a global flashpoint in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. In 1939 after Germany invaded Poland, the World War II erupted. In times of a war such incidents like the Polish missile attack can have detrimental and dangerous repercussions.
Many NATO countries have affirmed their support for Poland. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is about collective defence and attack against any one member of NATO is considered as an attack on all the members of NATO.
NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in USA. With NATO in an upbeat mood after Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, this missile attack in Poland can provide an opportunity it was looking for to take on Russia further. Whether this missile attack results in a retaliatory attack by NATO on Russia or Russia is further isolated internationally by NATO remains to be seen.
As severe winters set in Europe by end-November accompanied by heavy snowfall, the next fortnight is very critical for both Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war. NATO having smelt an opportunity in the aftermath of the Polish missile attack, will now fully weaponise this incident.
For sure, something big is bound to happen as NATO will not like itself to be projected as a weak alliance and let go of such an opportunity.
It is time now for restraint to be shown by the world leaders, else the future of humanity is at stake with nine nations today possessing nuclear weapons, unlike during World War II when only USA had nuclear weapons.
