India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra visited Myanmar on November 20-21, 2022. During his visit he held talks with the senior leadership of Myanmar. The talks centered on issues such as security in border areas and human trafficking. Kwatra’s visit highlights India’s continued policy of engaging with Myanmar. Prior to Kwatra, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, former foreign secretary has visited Myanmar in December 2021.
For its part, India has adopted a balanced approach to the crisis in Myanmar and avoided responding in a knee-jerk manner. India has called for restoration of democracy in Myanmar. But India has also continued interacting with the ruling dispensation in Myanmar, the military, known as Sit-Tat (earlier called the Tatmadaw).
India’s policy towards Myanmar needs to be considered from two perspectives – one is concerns about national security and two, how continued interactions with Myanmar have bearing on India’s international engagements.
Concerns about national security
National security remains the principal driving factor in India’s engagements with Myanmar. Bordering India’s Northeast region, stability in Myanmar is crucial to peace and stability in India’s Northeastern states which share kinship ties across the border. The insurgency-prone Northeastern region had also remained underdeveloped for several decades since independence.
These projects are important for India’s connectivity with Southeast Asia as well as for development of India’s Northeastern region. At the recent ASEAN-India Summit in Cambodia in November both the sides reiterated their commitment to link India’s Northeast with Southeast Asia. For its part India is proactively pushing for enhancing the infrastructure in the Northeast. Recently, the central government announced projects worth Rs. 1.6 lakh crores (around $20 billion) for the Northeast. Indian Railways completed survey of laying railway lines in Manipur’s Moreh up to the Myanmar border in November. The acceleration in developmental projects is also complemented by reduction of insurgency. According to a report by Ministry of Home Affairs, the year 2021 saw 74% reduction in insurgency incidents in Northeast.
In this backdrop, it is pertinent for India to engage with Myanmar as security of Northeast depends to a great extent on stable Myanmar and cooperation from Myanmar’s ruling dispensation. The coup in Myanmar has resulted in influx of Chin refugees in Manipur. Chin people share kinship ties with Kuki ethnic tribe of Manipur. This influx has caused ethnic tensions in Manipur where Meitis and Nagas are resenting the growing number of Kuki-Chins which is considered to contribute to ethnic imbalance in the state.
Besides, Myanmar rebels are using Mizoram as a base to arrange and transport arms and equipment to aid their fight against the military junta. Also Northeastern states such as Assam, Mizoram and Tripura are witnessing increasing incidents of drug-trafficking from Myanmar.
These are shared security concerns that affect both India and Myanmar. With due regard to insistence on democratic process, the security factor makes it imperative for India to work closely with Myanmar.
Bearing on India’s international engagements
While the western countries swiftly put limits to their interactions with Myanmar and even imposed punitive measures such as sanctions in the wake of the military coup, India has taken a cautious approach. India has sought to balance the promotion of democratic values with protecting national interests. India’s stand towards Myanmar is concomitant with its stand on various international crises, notably on the Russia-Ukraine war. As the Russia-Ukraine war has had a polarizing effect on the global order, India has trodden a balanced path.
India’s balanced stand on Myanmar has been overshadowed due to intense scrutiny of India’s role with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war. However, Myanmar warrants equal attention as well as an expedited solution to the ongoing crisis.
The sanctions and restrictions on engagements are pushing Myanmar towards international isolation. In turn the isolation has facilitated only Myanmar to increase proximity with China and Russia. Countering China is a common strategic objective of India and the western countries. However, the West’s approach towards Myanmar has increased China’s influence in India’s neighbourhood. Myanmar could turn into a Gordian Knot in India’s future engagements with the western countries.
Similarly, Myanmar could cast a shadow on the India-ASEAN relations. It is pertinent to note that at the recent ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia in November both the sides elevated their ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. India’s latest engagement with Myanmar comes just days after the ASEAN blocked the participation of Myanmar’s military junta chief. The exclusion was justified by the ASEAN as expression of disappointment over continuing violence in Myanmar.
Convergence between India and ASEAN is crucial to realize the vision of rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific. Both India and ASEAN need to find a way to resolve their divergent stands on Myanmar. India’s engagements with Myanmar are not only driven by narrow national security interests. Since the military coup, China has accelerated its engagements with Myanmar by way of investments. Through China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, China is seeking a backdoor entry in the Indian Ocean. During the recent summit in Cambodia, ASEAN had denounced China’s strategic assertion in South China Sea and had called for upholding the need to follow the United Nations Convention for Law of the Seas (UNCLOS). However indifferent stand on Myanmar by the ASEAN could further boost China’s presence in the region thereby presenting a strategic concern for ASEAN and India.
India’s engagements with Myanmar are clearly driven by security concerns. However, the democratic countries maintaining distance from Myanmar need to revisit their policy in order to protect their stakes in the Indo-Pacific Region. In this regard India’s role could assume importance as a power that has engagements with Myanmar as well as with its adversaries.
About the Author
Niranjan Marjani is a Political Analyst based in Vadodara, India. He tweets at @NiranjanMarjani. The views expressed are personal.
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s quote “The military is faithful to the constitution. They will come in only to protect the people from the enemies of the state” resonated in every action of Second Lieutenant (2/Lt) Rakesh Singh, Ashoka Chakra of the Indian Army.
Whenever 2/Lt Rakesh Singh would go on vacations to his grandfather’s house, he would see his grandfather and father’s photograph in full army uniform hanging in the living room of the ancestral palatial bungalow in Hisar.
Rakesh Singh or Rocky as he was affectionately called by father, was born on September 18, 1970 in Chandigarh, had decided very early in his life that he had to become the third generation Indian Army Officer in his family and carry on the rich legacy of his distinguished family. His grandfather Honorary Captain Rattan Singh, participated in some of the fiercest battles in Burma during World War II, and his father Col Raj Singh, an Artillery Officer, fought in the 1965 and 1971 Wars with Pakistan.
Being an Army Officer’s son, Rocky studied in various schools across the country and with each beautiful Army Cantonment that he stayed in, his resolve to join the coveted Indian Army became deeper and deeper.
As is famously said that “The world steps aside for the man who knows where he is walking”, there was nothing stopping Rocky from donning the pious Army Officer’s uniform and the tall and handsome Rakesh Singh cleared the world’s eighth toughest competitive exam and joined the prestigious National Defence Academy (NDA), Khadakwasla in his very first attempt, just after passing Class XIth exams. His parting words to his parents before he caught the train to Pune to report to NDA were “I will make you proud one day”.
The time in NDA saw Rakesh excelling in Basketball and Volleyball. He was always in the first string of Bravo Squadron basketball and volleyball teams. The soft spoken and well-mannered Rakesh made very good friends during his stay in NDA.
On December 01, 1990, Rakesh passed out of NDA with the 79 NDA Course. His father that time a serving Army Officer, and his mother attended the grand Passing Out Parade (POP) in NDA. Rakesh was in the haloed Nishan Toli (Colours Party), which carries the revered Presidential Colours awarded to NDA by His Excellency, The President of India. Colour Sergeant Major (CSM) Rakesh Singh proudly escorted the Presidential Colours, an honour bestowed only on the three best cadets in Drill in NDA.
After four weeks leave, Rakesh reported to the famed Indian Military Academy, Dehradun on January 08, 1991 as part of the 89 Regular Course, for the last one year of pre-commission training.
Rakesh was allotted Imphal Company in IMA, and in IMA too Rakesh did well in sports and in Drill. He cleared the tough Drill Square Test (DST) in the first attempt and was in the Judo club of IMA where he did exceedingly well.
On the day of his Passing Out Parade from IMA, Rakesh was pipped on the either shoulder by his grandfather and father, while his grandmother and mother silently wept in happiness to see the third generation of the family adorn the Army Officer’s uniform and carry the rich legacy of the family forward.
2/Lt Rakesh Singh was commissioned in 22 Grenadiers. 22 Grenadiers is one of the most decorated and brave battalions of Infantry of the Indian Army.
On December 05, 1992, 2/Lt Rakesh Singh, then the Officiating Company Commander of Bravo Company of 22 Grenadiers, at a tender age of 22 years, was leading a cordon and search operation at Padarpur village in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir to apprehend Pakistan trained militants operating in that area. Around 7 am, while deploying his company south west of Padarpur, he was informed by the leading Company Commander, Captain Rajiv Joon, about the escape of a group of militants south of Padarpur.
Though short of manpower, Rakesh reacted swiftly and rushed to the said area with three available men of his Company. After seeing the group led by 2/Lt Rakesh Singh coming towards them, the militants took up defensive position and started firing with a Universal Machine Gun and AK-56 assault rifles.
Undeterred by the enemy heavy fire, Rakesh launched a determined counter attack on the militants and killed two of them single handily. The militants surprised by his swift attack, retreated and started outflanking one of his soldiers accompanying him. 2/Lt Rakesh Singh noticed that the soldier was in grave danger and the only way to save him was to move to a better position, which involved crossing the militant’s line of fire. Placing his own life in jeopardy, Rakesh ran through the barrage of the militants’ fire. He fell due to bullet injuries but quickly got up and charged directly at the militants and killed three more of them.
Rakesh continued firing at the militants till he collapsed. Inspired by their Officer’s bravery, his soldiers killed the remaining three militants. Capt Rajiv Joon, the leading Company Commander, rushed to the site, lifted his junior colleague and sped in a jeep to evacuate him to the Base Hospital, Srinagar. However, 2/Lt Rakesh Singh breathed his last enroute. Thus 2/Lt Rakesh Singh sacrificed his life in the service of the nation at a young age of 22 years.
For exemplary bravery and courage of a very high order, 2/Lt Rakesh Singh was awarded the Country’s highest bravery award during peace time, the Ashoka Chakra. 2/Lt Rakesh Singh is the youngest Officer to be awarded the Ashoka Chakra till date.
Not only did Rakesh Singh make his parents proud, he made the entire Nation proud of him.
2/Lt Rakesh Singh, Ashoka Chakra truly lived to the motto of The Grenadiers “Love for the Nation can make one go to any extreme”.
We pay homage to 2/Lt Rakesh Singh, Ashoka Chakra on this solemn day. You shall forever remain in our hearts and memories and will always be a source of inspiration to all of us. Our prayers for your eternal peace.
Abraham Lincoln’s words “Military glory the attractive rainbow that rises in showers of blood” has an intense meaning.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army and is an alumnus of NDA Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures and has also done MBA and LL.B and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media contributions. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
On November 29, 2002, Tuesday, General Syed Asim Munir replaced General Qamar Javed Bajwa as Pakistan’s New Army Chief officially known as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). The former Inter-Service Intelligence Head (ISI) assumed the baton of command as the 17th COAS in a splendid ceremony at the General Headquarters (GHQ).
His appointment as the head of the historically controversial Pakistan Army has triggered diverse reactions within domestic and South Asian politics. Endowed with an impressive portfolio, the four-star ranking former Quartermaster General was awarded Hilal-i-Imtiaz in March 2018. In the wake of allegations that suggest military involvement in ousting Imran Khan from power, the political atmosphere in Pakistan experienced a surge in power skirmishes. Imran Khan’s Long March concurring with the appointment of General Syed Asim fueled fiery contestations among the domestic political factions in the country.
Tracing the roots of controversies, General Asim Munir’s tenure as the ISI Chief was curtailed as the shortest-ever term under the influence of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2019. Owing to his former allegiance to ISI, India is speculating Munir’s approach towards India-Pakistan relations as a hard-core militant, contrary to his predecessors. Among a myriad of glaring domestic, South-Asian and International challenges, Munir’s newly appointed role has induced apprehensions about Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s recent hostilities against the country.
The recent trends reveal a fortified TTP’s propensity for violence since the Taliban took control over Afghanistan in August 2021. On November 30, 2022, TTP violated the ceasefire which was signed in June with the Government of Pakistan by launching a suicide bombing in the Balelli region in Quetta. Calling off the peace deal led to unprecedented horror with 4 people losing their lives and about 30 people getting wounded.
The statement issued by TTP suggests that the attack was intended to avenge the execution of the former spokesperson of TTP, Abdul Wali. Considering the coincidence of the attack with the appointment of a new COAS, General Asim Munir is entrusted to mitigate the mutilations, ensuing from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. On 1st December, the United States of America reverberated by declaring Qari Amzad, the Deputy Chief of TTP, along with three prominent members of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), on the ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorists’ list.
Secretary of State Antony Blinked proclaimed that the US is obligated to employ all the relevant tools of counter-terrorism to prohibit Afghanistan as the breeding platform for International Terrorism. Apart from Afghanistan’s role in sheltering AIQS and TTP terrorists since the 2021 Taliban takeover, a stern injunction from the US is also anticipated due to the ‘anti-western’ reputation of COAS General Syed Munir. Honored with the title, Hafiz-e-Quran, Syed Munir’s inclination toward Saudi Arabia experiences strict scrutiny from experts all over the world. The allegations of US involvement with the Pakistan Army in ousting Imran Khan’s government in April 2022, are pricking the sovereignty of Pakistan. On account of such political conjecture, it will be interesting to find out how General Munir navigates the West in favor of Pakistan’s national interests and stability.
Pakistan’s relationship with China is also a dimension that poses immense significance in deciding the international state of affairs. General Syed Munir’s foremost concerns in paving Pakistan’s strategic relations with China include the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Uyghur Muslim Movement of East Turkistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor refers to an eminent multi-dollar agreement between the two countries as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The CPEC is destined towards the dual objective of elevating Pakistan’s economy and connecting the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gwadar to Xinjiang province of China. Since the CPEC passes through Gilgit-Baltistan (Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir territory), a claim which is denied by Pakistan, India anticipates serious security implications.
The recent geo-political developments have intensified the strategic atmosphere between the countries of China-Pakistan-India. Despite the political diplomacy between China and Pakistan governments, the security and military pertinence of CPEC hugely lies under the authority of COAS Gen Munir. Pakistan is allegedly helping China in castigating Uyghur Muslims who are hiding in the country to escape persecution by the Chinese government. CPEC plays a pivotal role in Pakistan’s measures against the Uyghur refugees, owing to what came to be known as ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ between China and Pakistan. International Forum for Rights and Security (IFFRAS) reports one such glaring incident of 5 innocent Uyghur Muslim students being extradited to China, based on the suspicion of terrorism in 2010. Since Pakistan Security forces have been actively involved in the brutal deportation of Uyghur Muslims in the country, General Munir’s role expands on the broader contexts of the International system. The following circumstances imply that the newly attained tenure of the Pakistan Army COAS is indeed brimming with geo-political challenges.
Theodore Roosevelt’s quote “Never throughout history has a man who lived a life of ease left a name worth remembering” aptly summarises the tough life led by Pyara Chand of the Border Roads Organisation of the Indian Army who sacrificed his life for the nation.
Pyara Chand belonged to the Hamirpur district of Himachal Pradesh, India and since his childhood he had dreamt of being an uniformed soldier.
Pyara Chand joined the General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF) on February 02, 1991 and was posted to the 752 Border Roads Task Force (BRTF) in Project Udayak on January 08, 2008. He was a dedicated and a sincere operator deployed for works at KM 465 on the Akajan-Jonal Road located in Dhemaji district of Assam in India which was highly infested with insurgents.
On the night of January 12, 2009 everyone in the camp went to sleep after dinner and the generator was put off at 9 pm. It was pitch dark in the camp thereafter. At about 9.05 pm three insurgents entered one of the barracks of this camp forcibly by breaking the doors of the barrack.
All the three insurgents were armed with highly sophisticated weapons and tried to find out about the cash pertaining to labour payment which had been brought that morning for the salary disbursement the next day. Bishan Das who was sleeping close to the door replied negatively to their enquiry. Immediately one of the insurgents hit the forehead of Bishan Dass with the butt of his weapon due to which he became unconscious.
Seeing the attack on one of his colleagues Pritam Chand and Pyara Chand shouted and jumped over the insurgents to overpower them showing braveness and without caring for the consequences. In the meantime, one of the insurgents open fire indiscriminately at Pyara Chand and Pritam Chand.
Pyara Chand despite suffering bullet injuries on the right side of his shoulder pounced on the insurgent in order to get a hold of him. The insurgent shook himself free and managed to flee. Seeing the raw courage exhibited by Pyara Chand, the other two insurgents too ran away from the camp.
This daring act of Pyara Chand not only saved the government money pertaining to labour payment but also the precious lives of the other colleagues who were sleeping inside the camp. Pyara Chand was bleeding profusely. Before he could be evacuated to the nearest Military Hospital, he breathed his last.
Pyara Chand displayed extreme devotion to duty, courage and made the supreme sacrifice of his life for India as per the rich and the glorious traditions of the Border Roads Organisation.
In recognition of the brave act and supreme sacrifice made, Pyara Chand was awarded Shaurya Chakra, which is India’s third highest gallantry award during peace time.
Our salute and respect to Pyara Chand, Shaurya Chakra. He is immortal as the Brave on the Border who sacrificed his life for the nation.
Joseph Rodman Drake words “And they who for their country die shall fill an honoured grave, for glory lights the soldier’s tomb, and beauty weeps the brave” are a testament of the immortal sacrifice Pyara Chand did for India.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army is an alumnus of NDA Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures and has also done MBA and LL.B and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media contributions. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
Roberto Clemente’s quote “When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on Earth” aptly fitted Ravinder Alwyn Sharma Thabah, an Indian Army Officers’ son, who used to be enamoured seeing his father wear the haloed Army Officer’s uniform every morning.
Thabah had decided very early on in his life that he had to don the Army Officer’s uniform one day. Thabah belonged to an illustrious and distinguished family. His father was an Army Officer from the Corps of Signals, and his mother was a teacher.
Thabah joined the Army as a soldier in the Corps of Signals. He prepared himself for the prestigious Army Cadet College (ACC) exam. The ACC exam is a very tough exam in which over 10,000 soldiers apply and only 45 are selected after a gruelling process involving a written exam, interview and medical checks.
For the determined and motivated Thabah, the tough ACC exam proved to be no deterrent and he joined the prestigious Army Cadet College in Dehradun. Thabah was allotted Gurez Company and in the next three years Tabah outshone others in cross country, basketball, gymnastics and athletics. He won various medals in these sports in the three-year training of ACC.
Thabah was a very good guitar player, and he would sing English and Hindi songs while playing the guitar. He was the star of the Social Evenings in ACC.
After a tough and strenous training of three years, Thabah passed out of ACC on 08 December 1990 as part of the ACC-56 Course. After four weeks leave, Thabah reported to the prestigious Indian Military Academy (IMA), Dehradun on 08 January 1991 for one year of pre-commission training as part of the 89 Regular Course.
Thabah was allotted Jessore Company in IMA. Continuing his good performance in ACC, Tabah did well in IMA too.
The Company Commander of Jessore Company at that time was a Parachute Commando Major. Thabah was in so much awe and admiration of his Company Commander, that when the time came to fill in the choice for Arms/Services, Thabah immediately gave his choice as the Parachute Regiment.
The Parachute Regiment of the Indian Army is an elite and coveted Regiment in which only the best of the best gets commissioned in.
RAS Thabah was commissioned as an Officer in the Parachute Regiment on 14 December 1991. His parents piped one star each on his either shoulder and thus 2/Lt RAS Thabah achieved his ambition of becoming an Officer in the finest Army of the World – the Indian Army.
After post commissioning leave Thabah, reported to the Parachute Battalion. He cleared the probation and was given the coveted Maroon Beret.
It is only the privilege of select few to wear the Maroon Beret in the Indian Army, and those select few are the best Officers and Soldiers of the Indian Army. Thabah had yet once again proved that he was among the best.
Thabah undertook various operations as part of his Parachute Battalion and was awarded the Chief of Army Staff’s Commendation Card and the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief’s Commendation Card for bravery.
After few years’ service in the Parachute Battalion, Thabah was transferred to Assam Regiment due to ill health.
At that time, the Assam Regiment Battalion was in the North-East in Assam, engaged in Counter Insurgency Operations. The experience of having served in a Parachute Regiment came handy and Thabah soon was in the fore front of taking part in the operations in the Assam Regiment Battalion too.
On 01 December 2002, intelligence inputs were received that few terrorists were to visit a village later at night the same day. Thabah and one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) immediately wore local dress and went to the village to gather more inputs. After some time, the villagers there become suspicious of them and thinking both of them to be terrorists, they both were surrounded by a mob and eventually lynched to death by the locals. Thus, Major RAS Thabah sacrificed his life in the Service of the Nation.
We pay homage to Major Ravinder Alwyn Sharma Thabah on this solemn day. You shall forever remain in our hearts and memories and will always be a source of inspiration to all of us. Our prayers for your Eternal Peace.
As the famous Rev. Aaron Kilbourn remarked “The dead soldier’s silence sings our National Anthem”.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army is an alumnus of NDA Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures and has also done MBA and LL.B and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He features in the World Book of Records, London and the India Book of Records for his media contributions. He Tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.
The tactical and strategic uses of missile technology has become the driving force of the news arms race in the 21st century. Russia and Iran are leading from the front, when it comes to integration of space technologies with modern warfare systems. The western countries which otherwise had an edge in the conventional arms race, seem to be falling behind in the hypersonic domain. This report takes an overview of the developments in this domain, as a sub-set of ongoing regional conflicts:
Iskander-M Missile system operationalized by Russia
On November 19, 2022 the Russian Ministry of Defense declared that all of its missile units had been rearmed with the ‘modern and unique’ Iskander-M Missile system.
The definition of “Modern and Unique” remains unexplained. The NATO calls the Iskander as SS-26 Stone, a tactical missile system that can be fitted with new missiles, improving its combat capabilities. The support infrastructure built for the Iskander system would likely last 30 years. Russians have used the Iskander-M to launch attacks against the strategic locations of the Ukrainian armed forces.
This development comes days after it was claimed that Moscow was dangerously low on missiles to attack Ukraine’s interior. So, the current statement can be seen also be seen as a power projection, rather than actual capability development. On November 07, 2022 Ukraine’s intelligence agencies claimed that Russia only had 120 modern Iskander missiles in its inventory.
Iskander-M missile system specifications:
Targets: Long-range artillery, command posts, communication hubs, missiles, multiple launch rocket systems, and airfields
Max. Range: 500 kilometers
Use started: 2014
Type: Fully operational ballistic missile
Equipment: Two 9M723K1 single-stage solid-propellant guided missiles. Additionally, the system can launch the SSC-7 and SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs).
Export variant: Iskander-E
Max. payload: 700 kilograms
Warheads: Conventional and Nuclear
Flight: Low trajectory, mid-course manoeuvring
Accuracy of hit: 2-5 mts.
The Russians are also supplying multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS for the rocket formations of both large and medium calibre of the Tornado family (Tornado-S MLRS of 300mm calibre and Tornado-G MLRS of 122mm calibre), with the self-propelled howitzers 2C19M2 “Msta-S.”
This warhead can fire in the “dump of fire” mode, which increases the density of fire and guarantees enemy damage by having multiple rounds launched from one gun at various angles.
Poland Missile Attack
“Two people were killed after Russian-made missiles landed in Poland”, according to news reports. But after confirmation from local sources, it turned out that the missile was not Russian; it was Ukrainian, which got mis-fired into Polish territory, while trying to counter the incoming Russian missiles. But the huge propaganda warfare unleashed via media channels is so huge, that people started believing it was a Russian missile.
The Polish government convened an emergency security meeting earlier this week and opted to increase its military readiness, by invoking the Article 4 of NATO, triggering an alliance meeting. This attack incident has been used to strengthen the war narrative of Zelensky, that the ongoing conflict will no more be limited to Ukraine only – it can spread to other countries of Europe. Even though NATO has been helping Ukraine, all out, in this war, NATO did not officially support Ukraine, as it is not a NATO member officially. Zelensky’s statement after this attack was: “this is an attack on collective security”, which gives a certain legitimacy for the NATO to intervene in the war.
Philippine’s Army Plans to upgrade its Air Defences
The Philippine Army (PA) is creating new units specifically focused on air defence operations to exemplify its commitment to be an all-around, go-to unit in dealing with various threats. This was stressed during the closing ceremony of the Army Artillery Regiment’s (AAR) capability development workshop in Palayan, Nueva Ecija over the weekend.
They wish to develop the AAR capability by 2030, that will be a role model for other army units to follow.
“The purpose was to formulate the program proposals for fires, air defense, and counter-swarm which include the missile regiment, short range air defense (SHORAD) battery, and the very short-range air defense (VSHORAD) battery”, the commanders of PA told the media.
In 2020, the PA activated the AAR’s 2nd Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battery and 2nd Field Artillery Battery, for anti-access and area denial capabilities, designed to provide air defense for Army units, areas, and installations against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or remotely piloted vehicles (drones) as well as fixed and rotary aircraft.
Russian Nuclear Missile with a Dummy Warhead Lands in Ukraine
The Strategic Communications Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (StratCom) said in a Telegram post dated November 18, 2022 that the Russian fired a nuclear capable Kh-55 missile, with a dummy warhead on Ukraine. The Kh-55 is a Soviet-era cruise missile developed in the 1970s and officially adopted into the service in 1983. Notably, the missile was manufactured in Ukraine. This attack was probably to test the air defence systems of Ukraine. The missile resembles the American Tomahawk, in terms of specifications.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia took over these missiles. Ukraine was left with 1612 missiles, but in the late 1990s, many of these missiles were transferred to Russia. Currently, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) remains the only operator of the Kh-55. The Ukrainian media suggested that perhaps the Russian military was running low on stocks of conventional Kh-555 missiles and decided to use the Kh-55 instead.
This could also be Moscow’s attempt at nuclear signaling to the West, considering President Vladimir Putin’s bellicose rhetoric since the onset of the Ukraine war in February. Meanwhile the Russian Black Sea fleet has been based at Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea, and a major Black Sea port. A most recent estimate by experts from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) suggests that Moscow has approximately 1,912 tactical nuclear warheads assigned for delivery by air, naval, and ground.
Iran Announces Successful Hypersonic Trial
Iran has announced the successful development a hypersonic missile capable of penetrating all defense systems, this Thursday.
“This hypersonic ballistic missile was developed to counter air defense shields,” Hajizadeh the IRG Commander said, quoted by Iran’s Fars news agency. “It will be able to breach all the systems of anti-missile defense”.
The general said he believed it would be decades before a system capable of intercepting the missile was developed, declaring it “a great generational leap in the field of missiles.”
While countries like the United States have developed systems designed to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles, the ability to track and take down a hypersonic missile remains a question.
North Korea’s test of a hypersonic missile last year sparked concerns about a race to acquire the technology. Russia currently leads the race to develop the missiles, followed by China and the United States. Iran seems to be catching up soon; may receive Russian and Chinese support in near future, to counter-balance the USA. Both Iran and Russia are targeted by stringent sanctions – they have responded to the sanctions by boosting cooperation in key areas to help prop up their economies.
Iran has also admitted that it had sent drones to Russia, but said it had done so before the Ukraine war. Western media says that Iran may soon send missiles as well to the Russians. Iran had also claimed in July 2022 that it had “the technical ability to build a nuclear bomb.” This follows Iran’s announcement on November 5 of the successful test flight of a rocket capable of propelling satellites into space.
Conclusion:
Thus, the emerging warfare scenario in the world will be centered around regional conflicts. It can be said that there will not be any full-scale wars. But the results of regional conflicts are going to be decided in the favour of the one who has a technological edge. The dimension of cyber and space will form an important component of this new era warfare. Sanctions and rhetoric may say otherwise, but back-channel support to allies will also continue. The regional balances of power have already started to shift towards the Indo-Pacific. As against the fully functional ‘alliance system’ of the previous century, the 21st century is witnessing the recurrence of the 19th century system of ‘secret military alliances’, wherein countries are helping each other with arms, secretly, via back channels. Hawkish states like the USA stand to gain the most from all of this – by arms sales, and by buying out the competition in the market. For sure, the security dilemma of all concerned nation-states is going to increase.
About the Author
Rahul Wankhede is a post-graduate in Defence and Strategic Studies with a gold medal. He has worked with think tanks and NGOs in domains of research, analysis and mentoring and is currently Assistant Professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India. The views expressed are personal.
A Canada based Tech Insights reported a breakthrough in the Chinese Semiconductor Industry. China based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is reported to have achieved the feat in advanced semiconductors by the production of 7nm chip or N+2 chip for MinerVA bitcoin mining company.This is considered as a great leap in the production of the advanced chip by a Chinese company. The next generation chip puts SMIC on par with advanced chip makers around the globe.
The 7nm Chips are a crucial component for the most recent consumer products including, AI, Fintech and 5G products. These high-end chips are used to build processors in building 5G base stations. Many 5G electronics companies have claimed to be using 7nm chips for their latest 5G handset, for example MediaTek multi-Mode chipset, this distinguishes other smartphones through System on Chips (SoC).
Moore’s law states that “the number of transistors on a silicon wafer will grow every two years due to the advancement in the technologies used for the manufacturing of chips”.
China has been able to provision for this in terms of the years taken to produce the chip. The factor that is in variance with the law is the technology utilisation.
Due to changing global dynamics and supply chain disruptions, attempts are made by countries, especially the US and China, to localise the industry. Being self-sufficient in all components of the chip manufacturing process is vital. China at present dominates the back-end manufacturing (assembly, test, and packaging). They lack design and manufacturing components.
China is resolved to build an economy which is self-reliant with special emphasis on all core technologies, like semiconductor, quantum computers and AI. Under President Xi Jinping several policy decisions have been focusing on achieving this self-sufficiency. In the speeches in the recently concluded 20th National Party congress, Xi mentions the word, technology at least 55 times.
‘Made in China 2025’, a People’s Republic of China led industrial policy, is aimed at enhancing China’s domestic chip industry. Providing subsidies and incentives China has been speeding up the development of domestic fabrication plants to localise the most vital elements of the technology supply chain. Another step towards this is the formation of ‘China National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund’ targeting exclusively semiconductor chips.
Tech Sight claims that the chip produced by SMIC is very similar to the 7nm chips by TSMC. This has been labelled as ‘Industrial espionage’. The west is worried about the extent to which China would go to ensure their technological independence is achieved.
The semiconductor Industry is a suitable example of a highly globalised world with each specialisation concentrated on one territory. The major Semiconductor players happen to be allies of the USA. Taiwan, South Korea, Netherlands, Japan. This provides the US with an opportunity to consistently deny China the high-end processors and technology.
To produce 7nm chips the Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) immersion tool is used by other leading chip makers like Intel, Samsung & TSMC. China reportedly still uses the Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (DUV), used to produce previous generations of semiconductors.
China has been deprived of the latest tool required to take a leap in the chip industry. The EUV monopolised by a Dutch company ASML has been restricted by the US in sharing the technology with China. It would be difficult for SMIC or any Chinese company to be economically competitive without the use of EUV, as the chips are made into perfection with continuous production. Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. (SMEE) is the leading lithography producer of China. SMEE is an ambitious plan of China to replace ASML. The fact that China has been able to produce the latest chip with the absence of technological support is a sign of worry for the west and an opportunity in disguise to countries like India trying to make a mark in the semiconductor industry.
Advantage for India
To prevent Beijing from achieving a technological edge over Washington the latter has been imposing a range of sanctions against transfer of technologies and advanced semiconductors to China. The US wants to desist China using the American chips to boost their military. The Chip Act 2022 by the United States of America that came into effect on August 9, 2022, is aimed to boost US competitiveness, innovation, and national security and to reinvent itself as a hub for the semiconductor industry. It focuses on limiting Chinese growth to contest this position.
With US legislation clamping down on China, the US would want to find an alternative source for the semiconductor manufacturing at an affordable rate. India with its improving semiconductor ecosystem would be a preferred destination for the American companies.
China has specialised in the assembly, testing, marketing and packaging (ATMP) part of semiconductor production which is a capital- and labour-intensive process. India can be developed as a safe alternative to this process as the looming fear over China denying the supply of these finished chips as a retaliation to US ban is on the high. Especially with the government framing schemes to develop an ecosystem in the country and companies like Tata and Vedanta’ increased interest over the manufacturing of semiconductors will boost the semiconductor industry in India.
India can fill up the production gap brought by the shutdown of semiconductor facilities in Japan, South Korea, USA, and China by setting up its own manufacturing facilities. duction gaps by setting up its own manufacturing facilities.
The US and other major players are looking at diversifying its supply chain especially for semiconductors as it poses serious risks as a handful of companies hold the majority share for semiconductor manufacturing. The trade war between the US and China does not seem to be dwindling in the immediate future. This is the opportunity India can tap into. Many large semiconductor companies have set up their offshore centres which specialise into the design part of chips. More than 20% of the world’s semiconductor designers work out of India. Venturing into chip designing would be a boost for the Indian semiconductor ecosystem. India needs to invest in R&D and train her labour force with skill competence. As suggested by vice president of the Indian Electronics and Semiconductor Association, Sunil G. Acharya, “There is an opportunity for the Indian Industry to explore opportunities to become a materials supplier to the global FABs and ATMPs”. The government must incentivise the production of such components by the MSME sector of India.
According to the statement by the Indian Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, “Building Indian capabilities in semiconductor manufacturing is an imperative for industrial growth, digital sovereignty, technological leadership, national security, self-reliance and for India’s goals to be a significant player in the global electronics and semiconductor value chains”.
Conclusion
The global race for technological breakthrough is taking new dimensions. With increased geopolitical crises brewing across the world, the pandemic, the trade war and Ukraine war, the world has been witnessing the downside of globalisation. Nations are in a race to localise the manufacturing sector and secure their supply and value chain. In such a time a breakthrough like this by China is being assessed very closely. The question will be how much can China move forward without the technological component from the West? Can China find any alternatives to continue and sustain the feat they achieved? The increasing imposition of US sanctions on China, especially after achieving the 7nm production, is an opportunity for India to develop as a go to destination for Chip industry.
About the Author
Sapna Elsa Abraham is a Research officer at the Chennai Centre for China Studies. She completed her graduation in History, Economics and Political Science from Christ (Deemed to be University) and holds Post Graduation in International Relations from the University of Madras. Her research work focuses on “Indian Naval Diplomacy” and “The Influence of Portuguese rule on Malayalam language”. Her area of interest includes Maritime Security, Environmental Security and Diplomacy including International Organisations. She tweets at @elsa_sapna. The views expressed are personal.
Communists entered Beijing in 1949 and their leader, Mao Zedong announced the establishment of People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949. Mao’s announcement ended the costly full-scale war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT). This protracted conflict, which started immediately after the Second World War, was subsequently put to an end with the CCP ruling over Beijing and the Kuomintang retreating to Taiwan on 7 December 1949. Roughly 2 millions of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops, besides many civilians, fled the advancing People Liberation Army of the Chinese Communist Party. The United States of America suspended its diplomatic ties with China and therefore emerged what is today known as ‘One China Policy’, with Mao declaring that no country could have diplomatic ties with both the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. Much of the world back then recognized Taipei, while India and the United Kingdom recognized the newly established system in Beijing. The US took decades to recognize a communist dispensation in Beijing, since it was a tussle of recognition between a capitalist state and a communist state for them, which was the basis of the Cold war.
11 nations severed their diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1971, while the figure was 14 for the year 1972. A crucial development occurred in 1971, when the United Nations General Assembly passed resolution 2758 on the “Restoration of the lawful rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations”. The resolution recognised the PRC as the “only lawful representative of China to the UN.” Until then ROC continued to hold China seat in the UN, the resolution expelled “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek (Taiwan) from the place they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all its organisations.” It transferred all of China’s rights to the PRC, including the permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council.
There was a marked improvement in the bilateral relations between the ROC and the PRC in the 1980s, including the conduct of indirect trade, despite the underlying tensions. During the 1990s, when Taiwan was democratizing and carving out a separate national identity. The PRC adopted a “Three Exhaust Policy”: exhaust the states that recognise Taipei, exhaust Taiwan’s international political space, and exhaust Taiwan’s bargaining chips.
To understand the dynamics of the shifting PRC’s hostility towards the Taiwanese, we need to analyse factions in authority in Taiwan and their ideologies. Ma Ying-Jeou was elected as Taiwanese president in 2008. He was able to carve out a diplomatic truce with the CCP and pushed the cross-strait cooperation to a greater height. Reiterating 1992 Consensus, Ma ensured that he never poked the CCP where it hurt them the most. 1992 consensus holds that mainland China and Taiwan form part of ‘One China’ but allows for differing perceptions of sovereignty; in return, China offered a diplomatic truce by not trying to actively seek to poach Taiwan’s allies. This was evident with Gambia, which broke ties with Taiwan in 2013 and sought to link with China, but China held initially held back.
However, the diplomatic truce ended with the election of Tsai Ing-wen as the Taiwanese president in January, 2016. “A person who disliked attracting attention from others”, Tsai writes about her years in academic, is now a leader who’s standing against China. Carving out a separate (democratic) identity for Taiwan, Tsai has provoked the CCP, which encouraged them to actively engage in poaching Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. China eventually re-established the ties that Gambia has been seeking for 3 years. Today, only 13 countries and one territory recognise Taiwan.
TUSSLE OVER RECOGNITION
To understand China’s viewpoint, we can refer to the White Paper–The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue published by the Office of the Charge’ d; Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Lithuania. China views Taiwan not as an adversary, but an “inalienable part of China”, with the current administration being “only a local authority in Chinese territory”, not the rulers of a sovereign country. A size of 36,000 sq. km, a populace of 23 million, and a democratically elected government makes Taiwan meet three out of the four traditional characteristics of a nation state, The fourth being the sovereignty, Beijing will oppose Taiwan’s sovereignty by poaching most of the Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, if not all.
Taiwan’s Diplomatic Web: source Statista
TAIWAN IN THE ERA OF TSAI ING-WEN
Under President Tsai’s New South Bound Policy, Taiwan is seeking to broaden exchanges with the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states, six South Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand on economic and trade cooperation, talent cultivation, resource sharing and regional links. Its official website states it has full membership in 40 intergovernmental organisations and their subsidiaries, and observer status in 25 others. Emphasizing the benefits, Taiwan actively pushes out its representation to these organisations. It participates in the Olympics under the tag ‘Chinese Taipei’, with a specific Olympic flag, and an anthem. It ensures not to irk the CCP, yet aims to preserve its distinctive identity. Geopolitical affairs expert Elizabeth Larus reveals how these allies in various organisations act as proxies for Taiwan.
BEIJING’S HOSTILITY TOWARDS TAIWAN’S DIPLOMATIC ALLIES
Beijing has sought different tactics to sever Taiwan’s diplomatic ties with others. Primary tool and the most effective has been the ‘chequebook diplomacy’, with its sizeable economic and trade relationship with various countries. Beijing intimidates Taiwan’s allies with trade barriers, non-trade barriers and other means to compel them to align them with Chinese interest. Solomon Islands, for example, withdrew its recognition of Taiwan in 2019 because by then China was its largest trading partner (at USD 375 million annually)
Palau, which still continues to recognise Taiwan, has as much as 40 percent of its GDP share coming from tourism, half of which are visitors coming from China. China ‘weaponised tourism’ against Palau in 2018, which disturbed Palau’s internal politics, some factions advocating a closer relationship with the PRC.
‘Weaponization of aid contributes’ towards a range of less developed countries is another tactic the CCP employs to poach countries to its camp. Grenada’s 2005 decision to recognise Beijing, for example, came attached to Chinese funding for housing, healthcare, scholarships, and the co-hosting of the 2007 Cricket World Cup. Dominica switched diplomatic recognition in 2004 and found itself the beneficiary of USD 112 million in Chinese aid.
South Africa was the last major power recognising Taiwan in the late 1990s. Its flourishing trade with China and fears of a Chinese veto on its future application to join the UNSC council led it to severe ties with Taiwan. ‘Beijing’s international stature’ has been effectively leveraged to manipulate and intimidate others to align with China’s interest.
‘Leveraging the Chinese ethnic diaspora’ to realise Chinese interest in various countries has been one of the most potent tools to limit Taiwan’s diplomatic space. In the Solomon Islands, the Chinese diaspora (Thomas Chan played a prominent role) proved critical to the long-term development of ties, which culminated in formal recognition for the PRC in 2019. Vanuatu’s Prime Minister Serge Vohor resigned because of the crisis created by Chinese lobbyists in the Parliament on Vanuatu’s Taiwan outreach in 2004.
China’s evolving Taiwan policy is to disrupt, isolate and constrain Taiwan. Recently, China has been extremely hostile regarding Taiwan’s presence on international platforms, including apolitical ones. In 2016, China pressurised International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to not invite Taiwan in Montreal for the conference, despite having 4 major international airports, which represent 23 million Taiwanese. Similar ploy is employed beyond international governance, for e.g. Olympic Committee of Asia blocked Taichung City from hosting the 2019 East Asian Youth Games at the PRC’s instigation.
Countering China with similar tactics like chequebook diplomacy, Taiwan, during the 1980s and 1990s, used all its relative economic muscle to aggressively lure and retain Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. During that time, its status as an investor and a donor played an important role in shaping its strategy. For example, Nauru switched diplomatic recognition to Taipei as soon as it realized Beijing was unwilling to fund its bankrupt national airline. In Solomon Islands, Taiwan contributed to “constituency development funds” for individual members of parliament that were suspected of being slush funds. There are reports that indicate Taiwan providing direct cash payments to Nauru’s lawmakers to keep the island to their side.
Taiwan’s chequebook diplomacy backfired when it lost an estimated $30 million in a failed attempt to acquire diplomatic recognition from Papua New Guinea. Beijing’s growing economy is further undermining Taiwan’s aids and contributions. Chinese aid to Pacific island makes up around 10 times of that of Taiwan’s. Since then, Taiwan has been on the back foot and recalculating its strategy.
In 1999, liberalist DPP released a white paper inculcating a new strategy–“flexible internationalism”. First, it involves pivoting away from an exclusive focus on formal diplomatic ties. It argues that “the interaction between nations no longer relies solely on maintaining formal, official relationships.” Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation conducted a poll and found that 60 percent of the population was not concerned about Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic relationships; only 32 percent were. It reflects that the Taiwanese public support the strategy, while interviews with serving and retired Taiwanese diplomats revealed that, while Taiwan is focusing on cultivating formal diplomatic ties, its foreign policy has moved beyond it.
Taiwan’s focus now is to expand its civil society relationships and build substantive informal ties with big powers, like US and India. Forums like Global Cooperation and Training Framework(GCTF), co-founded with US, have allowed Taiwan to participate in international forums and counter disinformation and cybercrimes, and promote development. Organizations like the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and International Cooperation and Development Fund play a vital role in forging solid, informal ties. Cooperation with international NGOs is another aspect of the new foreign policy.
As analyst Jaques DeLisle puts it, “The more Taiwan can walk and talk and act like a member of a regime that is open primarily or exclusively to states, the more hope it has of securing the benefits of state (or nearly state-like status) in the international system.” Despite its exclusion from various international bodies, Taiwan attempts to cooperate with international regulations. This strategy is termed “as-if” participation: Taiwan functions as if it were a fully recognised member of the international community. Taiwan has actively sought membership in international organisations, particularly in WHO, ICAO and Interpol.
Democracy diplomacy, neighbourhood diplomacy, Civilian diplomacy, humanitarian diplomacy and environmental diplomacy are all different spheres of activity clubbed under ‘non- traditional diplomatic work’. Democracy diplomacy, traditionally carried out through the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, seeks to build international cooperation based on democracy and human rights. Neighbourhood diplomacy, reaching out to middle powers in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), is an attempt to broaden Taiwan’s sources of diplomatic support. President Tsai’ New Southbound Policy focuses on building traditionally underdeveloped partnerships, India is focused in the policy.
WHY SHOULD THE WORLD CARE ABOUT TAIWAN
China in early 2022, signed a defence pact with Solomon island, which had diplomatic relations with Taiwan till 2019. The security agreement allows the island to be used as a Chinese port of call for the Chinese navy, which was earlier a zone of US and Australian sphere of influence. Taiwan is a crucial part of the first island chain which restricts Chinese aggression closer to home.
Kirbati island severed its diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2019. The island which was once used by the US as a base during the Second World War is now dominated by Chinese who are redeveloping its military installation on the island. To contain China, Taiwan and its strait plays a vital role. Recent transits of US Navy warships through Taiwan straits have irked the CCP.
Taiwan’s COVID-19 protocol received global praise, even as it was denied the observer status at the 2021 meeting of the World Health Assembly. Controversy also erupted around the role Taiwan could have played, after reports emerged it was among the first territories to realise the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus. Taiwan’s exclusion from international governance, particularly from WHO and ICAO, can prove detrimental to its 23 million citizens from receiving timely and crucial updates regarding health and safety. Finally, as a Taiwanese diplomat argues, the exclusion of Taiwan’s 23 million residents from international governance regimes both undermines the credibility of those regimes and impinges on the legitimate aspirations of the Taiwanese people.
About the Author
Rakshith Shetty is currently pursuing his Masters in Diplomacy, Law and Business at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P Jindal Global University. The focus areas of his studies include Indo-China studies, Data science, foreign policy, geopolitical risk analysis and corporate threat intelligence. He is a research intern at the Centre for North East Asian Studies of O.P. Jindal Global University. He tweets at @Rakshithreads. The author has informed GSDN that this article has also been published in CNEAS. The views expressed are personal.
One of the biggest fallouts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is that globally there is a rethink of heavy dependence on the dollar, which is the globally accepted trading currency. The sanctions on Russia have had the desired effect and China whose ambitions to annex Taiwan is an open secret now is closely and carefully monitoring the economic condition of Russia so as to derive lessons from it.
On November 09, 2022 the Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to the Joint Operations Command Centre of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) said the Chinese Army known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has to prepare for war and fight to win it. This was Xi’s first address to his two million strong military which is also the largest in the world, after being elected China’s President for a record breaking third time.
As the next Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meeting in 2027 approaches nearer, there will be immense pressure on Xi Jinping to prove his worthiness of getting elected for the fourth time in a row. With the Chinese economy in doldrums and the Covid-19 lockdowns still happening in China due to its mishandling of the pandemic, Xi will look for a military option to wean away the attention of the Chinese citizens from the economy and lockdown issues.
Taiwan being a highly emotive issue for the Chinese, will be the best big bet Xi can put on for his smooth passage as China’s President for the fourth time. Though, an attack on Taiwan in the near future is not ruled out but Xi will be handicapped in taking this option as USA has stood like a protective shield over Taiwan.
So, the next option for Xi is to attack the eastern Ladakh area of India which saw bloody clashes between the PLA and the Indian Army in June 2020.
Either way, a military option is the only recourse for Xi Jinping for his way to power once again in 2027.
China fully understands that whether Taiwan or India are attacked, USA and the West will immediately levy sanctions on it as has been done on Russia, hence it has started purchasing gold in droves.
According to the report for the period July-September 2022 released by the World Gold Council, 399.3 tonnes of gold were purchased in this quarter, which is a steep jump from 186 tonnes purchased in the previous quarter and 87.7 tonnes purchased in the first quarter of 2022.
The gold purchased in just nine months of 2022 is the highest gold purchased any year since 1967.
Out of the 399.3 tonnes purchased in July-September 2022, the central banks of Turkey, Uzbekistan and India have purchased 31.2 tonnes, 26.1 tonnes and 17.7 tonnes respectively which totals to 75 tonnes. With nearly 325 tonnes of gold being purchased by unidentified buyers, the fingers are yet again pointing at China who has not reported any gold buying activity since September 2019.
The People’s Bank of China has reportedly purchased over 2000 tonnes of gold from the Central Bank of Russian Federation.
Earlier, from 2009 to 2015 China did not report any gold purchasing activity and then stunned the world in 2015 by disclosing that it has about 600 tonnes of gold. China is building up its gold reserves to take on the economic onslaught that will be leashed by USA and the West whenever it attacks Taiwan or India in future.
These are clear warning signs that the global geopolitical situation is going to get more precarious in the times ahead and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is not the last major geopolitical turbulence that the world is witnessing.
Navy Sea Ghost Concept of the South Korean Navy: source Internet
In one of its biggest announcements on its founding day, the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy on its 77th Founding Day on November 11, 2022 announced the “Navy Sea Ghost Concept” which is in the Korean language and when translated in English it is the “Guardian Harmonized with Operating manned Systems and Technology based unmanned Systems”.
This announcement by Admiral Lee Jong-ho the ROK Navy Chief of Naval Operations brought to fore once again that for any navy to be a potent force, it has to adopt and adapt the advancements in technology. Though stealth and secrecy has always been an important and integral part of any military operation, this concept is path breaking as perhaps for the first time any Navy has officially announced such a doctrine publicly.
During the unveiling of this doctrine Admiral Lee Jong-ho said “The Navy Sea Ghost concept revealed today, which is based on manned and unmanned Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, is a game changer that will dominate the future battle space. We will devote our efforts and resources into (realising this vision) and creating a strong and powerful navy”.
The prolonged Russia-Ukraine War has yet again proved that modern wars have to be short and swift. Sun Tzu a famous Chinese military strategist of the ancient times had remarked “If victory takes long, it blunts the military and grinds down its sharpness” is equally relevant in modern warfare as it was then.
The India-Pakistan War of 1971 which lasted a mere 14 days from December 03-16, 1971 is an apt and appropriate example of how short duration wars will result victory in assured victory as was evident with the Indian Army defeating the Pakistan Army leading to the creation of a new nation, Bangladesh.
To ensure that the modern wars don’t get prolonged latest technology including the use of AI and unmanned systems have to be included in the military doctrines to maximise their efficacy and effectiveness.
The Navy Sea Ghost concept is a result of two years of research as part of the “National Defence Revolution 4.0” proposed by the Ministry of National Defence, ROK. It entails a lean mobile force involving seamless integration between the manned and unmanned systems. Also, part of this concept is to secure communications between its various assets so that the operations are not compromised at any stage.
This concept is of immense importance in the modern warfare and the global navies should take a note of this and formulate their own doctrines keeping in view their threat perceptions.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific region are a stark reminder that beefing up its own security is the only way to ensure peace in the region a nation is located in.
