By: Aqib Rehman, Research Analyst, GSDN

There is little doubt that China has been rising since last 40 years and now is presenting a formidable challenge to the United States of America with its rising economic power. Whether in the West Asia or in the Central Asia, America is facing significant challenge to its hegemony from the Peoples Republic of China.

In this case Afghanistan which is considered of great importance in the regions of South and Central Asia becomes more important for China to increase its presence in both the regions. After America withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, China found a window to promote its interests and started not only backdoor communication with the Taliban but also invited their leaders to China. Therefore, it becomes important to understand the China’s interests in Afghanistan and examine the geopolitical implications of China’s increased presence in Afghanistan. However, it is important to first look at the historical connections between the two countries.

History of the Relations

The ancient relations between China and Afghanistan were closely tied to the historic Silk Road, an extensive network of trade routes that facilitated the exchange of goods, culture, and ideas between the East and the West. The Silk Road was not a single route but a web of interconnected trade paths that spanned from China through Central Asia, the Middle East, and into Europe.

Taking advantage of this rute China exported silk, porcelain, tea, spices, and other luxury goods to the West, while Afghanistan and the surrounding areas provided valuable commodities like precious stones, metals, textiles, and agricultural products. This route also facilitated the exchange of culture, art, religion and knowledge. The spread of Buddhism in China from India was an important contribution of the Silk-Route. This route also provided the means of communication and diplomatic interactions between China and Afghanistan. This gave a strategic importance to this route.

After the successful liberation of China in 1949, Afghanistan was among the first countries to recognise China’s new government under the leadership of Mao Zedong. Both the countries established formal relations in the year 1955. Under the non-alignment ideology, both rejected the interference by major powers in the internal affairs of third-world countries.

The Sino-Soviet split during 1960s as a result of ideological differences posed a significant challenge to the Afghan rulers and they first sort to balance the relations between the two. However, as the tensions deepened, Afghans gravitated towards USSR. The communist coup of April 1978 and the subsequent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 resulted in a decade-long war known as Soviet-Afghan war.

China strongly opposed the Soviet invasion and provided support to various Afghan resistance groups, including the mujahideen, through arms and other means.

China was deeply concerned about the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan for several reasons like Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was perceived as a direct threat to China’s security interests. Afghanistan’s proximity to China’s western Xinjiang region raised concerns about potential spillover effects of the conflict. China feared that instability in Afghanistan could spill over into its own territory, possibly inspiring separatist movements among its Muslim minority population in Xinjiang.

the Soviet Union’s military presence in Afghanistan also raised concerns about its expanding influence in the region. China viewed the invasion as part of a broader Soviet strategy to gain greater control in South Asia and the Middle East, which would have ramifications for China’s strategic interests.

After the fall of Taliban in 2001, China Afghan relations continued to evolve influenced by the regional developments and the global shifts in the international order. During the first two decades China focused its energy in the areas of security, economic engagement and regional stability.

Chinese companies were interested in the natural resources of Afghanistan and they invested heavily during this period in Afghanistan. Most notable investment was by the China national petroleum corporation in the exploration of oil resources in the Northern Afghanistan. China was also concerned about the regional stability and the spillover of terrorism from Afghanistan to the Xinjiang province. To counter this, China cooperated with the regional players.

Apart from engaging with the Afghan leaders, China during this period provided humanitarian, infrastructural and economic aid to Afghanistan. It also participated in the Afghan peace process and favoured the peaceful resolution of the conflict.

As the U.S. announced its plan to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 2014, China adopted a more pragmatic approach towards the Taliban. With the prospect of a potential power vacuum and concerns about regional security, China engaged with the group to safeguard its interests. However, it did not explicitly endorse the Taliban as a legitimate government in Afghanistan.

China in Afghanistan: Geopolitical implications

The first important geopolitical implication of Afghanistan is its location. It is located at a place where it connects two regions of Asia with each other. Afghanistan’s location makes it potentially important for China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure and trade project connecting China with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Afghanistan’s inclusion in BRI could facilitate better connectivity and trade routes for China.

Second geopolitical or geoeconomic importance of Afghanistan is its abundance in natural resources. It has rear-earth metals such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium and veins of gold, silver and zinc. China, who’s economy is hungry of raw materials had maintained backdoor connections with the Taliban leaders is now seeking the exploration of these resources. The abundance of natural resources is of great geopolitical significance not only for the Chinese but some neighbouring countries are also concerned about the China’s growing influence in this region.

Third important geopolitical implication of China in Afghanistan is related to the regional stability and the counterterrorism. China is constantly worried about the spillover effect of Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. It does not want the separatists of Xinjiang province to be emboldened by this situation. Therefore, it is important for China to cooperate with the Taliban government to ensure stability in the Xinjiang province.

Another significant geopolitical implication of China’s involvement in Afghanistan is related to its dream of becoming a global leader. By engaging in Afghanistan’s affairs and actively supporting the country’s development and peace efforts, China seeks to present itself as a reliable partner and mediator in resolving international conflicts. China is aware of the fact that in order to become a global leader it first needs to be a regional leader.

By engaging with Afghanistan, China can demonstrate its willingness to take on a more proactive role in addressing regional challenges and conflicts. This engagement can also strengthen China’s ties with other neighbouring countries and enhance its influence in Central Asia. China also provides humanitarian aid to Afghans. This is considered as a tool to project country’s soft-power. By employing such steps China seeks to improve its global image of a benign and a responsible power.

One of the important geopolitical implications of China’s involvement in Afghanistan is that countries like India who have strategic interests in Afghanistan are witnessing significant decline in the kind of influence which they once enjoyed. China, which is seeking a global leadership will not allow any other regional country to exert influence in Afghanistan. Therefore, it is important for the countries like India to find suitable ways to engage with the Afghan government in order to protect their strategic interests.

China from the ancient times has had a cordial relation with Afghanistan. Silk-Route had been a primary means of communication between the two countries which is now being revived through the Belt and Road Initiative. China never involved itself in the Afghanistan by using its army. Therefore, it enjoys favourable conditions within the Taliban government and has been allowed to explore the natural resources of Afghanistan. This is of great geopolitical significance not only for the Chinese but also for the other regional players like India. Only the time will tell whether China will be able to sustain itself in Afghanistan or it will face the same fate as the previous global powers. After-all, Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires.

By: Khushboo Agrahari

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has experienced significant transformations in its domestic and international standing. This note examines India’s role in the new world order and the impact of Prime Minister Modi’s leadership on shaping India’s global engagement, economic policies, and strategic initiatives.

Economic Reforms and Global Integration

Under his tenure we have witnessed a strong focus on economic reforms and attracting foreign investments. Initiatives like “Make in India” and “Digital India” have aimed to boost manufacturing, promote entrepreneurship, and harness India’s demographic dividend. The introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) have streamlined India’s business environment, making it more attractive to investors. These efforts have positioned India as a global economic player and improved its ease of doing business ranking.

Act East Policy and Regional Integration

Prime Minister Modi’s Act East Policy has emphasized India’s commitment to strengthening its ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. India’s engagement with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations, Japan, Australia, and other regional powers has deepened economic cooperation, strategic partnerships, and people-to-people ties. The expansion of India’s Look East Policy to an Act East Policy reflects a proactive approach in leveraging regional integration and advancing India’s interests in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Diplomatic Outreach and Soft Power

Prime Minister Modi’s leadership has invigorated India’s diplomatic engagements and enhanced its soft power globally. Frequent high-level visits, including to countries that were previously neglected, have bolstered bilateral relations and opened new avenues for collaboration. The personal rapport Prime Minister has cultivated with world leaders has elevated India’s international standing. Furthermore, initiatives like the International Day of Yoga and the International Solar Alliance have projected India’s cultural and technological prowess, further enhancing its soft power.

Security and Counterterrorism Efforts

We saw how the Prime Minister has prioritized national security and counterterrorism measures to safeguard India’s interests in the new world order. The “Neighborhood First” policy aims to strengthen India’s relationships with its immediate neighbors, promoting stability and economic cooperation. Under his leadership, India has taken a strong stance against terrorism, particularly in the context of cross-border attacks, and has advocated for global cooperation in combating the scourge of terrorism.

Geopolitical Shifts and Strategic Partnerships

He has pursued strategic partnerships with key global powers to address regional and global challenges. Strengthening ties with the United States, Japan, and Israel has resulted in deepened defense cooperation, technology transfers, and joint military exercises. These partnerships have not only bolstered India’s security capabilities but have also contributed to a more multipolar world order.

His leadership has played a significant role in positioning India in the new world order. Through economic reforms, regional integration efforts, diplomatic outreach, and security initiatives, India has emerged as a major global player under his stewardship. As India continues to navigate the complexities and opportunities of the new world order, Prime Minister Modi’s vision and strategic approach will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of India’s engagement on the global stage.

By: Vaishnavi Verma, Research Analyst, GSDN

Background of Indian-African Relations

The historical relationship between Africa and India can be traced back to ancient times, specifically the Bronze Age in the Indus Valley Civilization and interactions between India and ancient Egypt. During the medieval period, there was an increase in commercial routes between the Mediterranean and Asia through Arabia, which facilitated contact between India and Africa. This period also witnessed the presence of Hindu traders along the southeastern coast of Mozambique in Africa.

The historical dimension of African-Indian relations is imbued with political implications. Both Africa and India experienced the intrusion of colonialism and its subsequent consequences, as the British colonial administration exerted control over the Indian Subcontinent and significant portions of Africa. The aforementioned concept was further strengthened by India’s endorsement of anti-colonial liberation movements and the attainment of independence by African nations, along with India’s display of solidarity during the Cold War in the 1960s.

Upon observing various regions in Africa, particularly East, and Southern Africa, one can discern the presence of significant cultural connections between the continent and India. According to a report from 2014, the Indian diaspora in Africa holds significant economic and cultural significance. The report indicates that Indian communities can be found in 46 African nations, constituting approximately 12.37% of the total Indian Diaspora. During the tenure of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Indian government demonstrated its “resource diplomacy” in Africa by organizing the inaugural India-Africa Forum Summit in 2008. This summit brought together leaders from 14 African nations, who collectively pledged $ 5 billion in credit and provided substantial amounts of aid amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Furthermore, in the year 2010, Singh founded the Indian Overseas Facilitation Centre to enhance economic relations and commemorate the 150th anniversary of the arrival of Indian indentured laborers in South Africa.

Importance of Africa

Geostrategic

The geographical proximity between India and Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa region, renders Africa of utmost significance to India’s security. This region is characterized by the emergence of threats such as radicalism, piracy, and organized crime.

Economic

• Africa has the potential to contribute significantly to the diversification of our energy sources, aligning with the stated objective of our Integrated Energy Policy.
• Africa is home to a significant abundance of valuable minerals and metals, such as gold and diamonds.
• Africa offers a favourable environment for Indian investment.
• Africa possesses a substantial amount of agricultural land that has the potential to contribute significantly to India’s food security. India is considering the possibility of leasing land in Africa as a potential solution to address the scarcity of arable land that we currently encounter.

Geopolitical

The endorsement of African nations holds significant importance for India’s pursuit of securing a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Africa serves as a platform for showcasing both India’s soft and hard power capabilities.

India has demonstrated a proactive engagement in fostering peace and stability within African nations by actively participating in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations. India is actively engaged in the process of enhancing the capabilities and skills of African nations through capacity building initiatives. Africa is the primary recipient of India’s ITEC program, which is the largest in terms of beneficiaries.

The Current Areas of Collaboration between India and Africa

The Conclave of India-Africa Project Partnership was formed in 2005, with the primary objective of fostering economic collaboration between India and Africa. The project has played a crucial role in fostering the establishment of Indian enterprises in Africa. Furthermore, the establishment of the India-Africa Summit played a crucial role in institutionalizing and formalizing India’s diplomatic ties with its African counterparts, representing a significant landmark in the realm of Indian- African relations. In recent times, there has been a notable focus on economic engagement between India and Africa, characterized by an increasing trade volume and a growing portfolio of investments. India exhibits a proclivity towards the private sector when it comes to skill and capacity-building initiatives in domains such as health care, agriculture, the digital revolution, and educational collaboration. Moreover, it is worth noting that the significance of marine security cannot be understood in the context of India’s diplomatic ties with countries such as Kenya, South Africa, and other coastal nations and islands.

Areas of collaboration:

1. Economic Involvement: Africa’s rich resources, growing middle class, and big working-age population attract international competitors and global powers. India’s consumer-driven goods in agriculture, clothes, pharmaceuticals, and automotive components have enhanced the continent’s significance thanks to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). India launched concessional lines of credit (LOC) in 2003 to boost development collaborations. From 2008 to 2011, India pledged about US$8 billion in LoCs to African states.

Despite the difference between promised funds and actual lines of Credit (LoCs) provided to Africa, recent reports have positioned India as one of the continent’s main funders. India is one of Africa’s top five investors with $74 billion invested in oil and gas, mining, banking, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automotive, and agriculture. The Ministry of External Affairs of India said that under LoCs with Africa in different sectors, 193 projects have been completed, 66 are under execution, and 88 are under pre-execution.

Bilateral trade between India and Africa has grown consistently year after year. For example, in 2020, India exported 5.2% of the continent’s global exports and imported 7%, India has made a substantial investment of $7 billion in a gas field located in Mozambique. Simultaneously, he also asserted that India serves as the third-largest export destination for Africa. Petroleum products accounted for the majority of India’s exports, followed by pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and grains. Moreover, India’s primary African export destinations encompass South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, and Tanzania Conversely, India predominantly imports mineral fuels, crude oil, natural or cultivated pearls, and precious stones from South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Egypt and Morocco among other countries.

• Medical Tourism: India’s involvement and development cooperation with Africa includes health care delivery, as shown by the US$10 million India-Africa Health Fund created during the 2015 third India- Africa Forum Summit. Africans traveling to India for medical treatment increased from 5.4% of total tourist visits in 2010 to 15.4% in 2019, Indian and African healthcare professionals work together on hospital construction and capacity development. India offered food help to Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, and Eritrea and 150 metric tonnes of medical supplies to 25 African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some African authorities have condemned the West’s attitude to the continent’s COVID-19 immunization efforts, India kept its vaccine supply lines open throughout the pandemic.

• Education and Information Technology: In recent times, there has been a growing interest among individuals from African nations in Indian universities and research institutions. As of the year 2022, the Indian government has disbursed more than 30,000 scholarships to students from Africa, to the commitment made by the country in 2015 to provide a total of 50,000 scholarships over ten years.

The Indian technological and economic partnership program helps Africa research and build capacity via training and scientific and technological partnerships. Considering the significance of the information and communication technology (ICT) industry in the progress of Africa and the endeavours of various African nations to expedite their technological infrastructure and digital identification, as well as optimize the trade advantages offered by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), India has emerged as a prominent suggestion for collaboration and cooperation. The flagship ICT project Pan African e-Network, proposed in 2004 and launched in 2009 by India and the African Union, connects African countries through a seamless and integrated satellite, fiber optics, and wireless network and uses Indian IT skills to improve healthcare and education in their institutions.

         The first international campus of the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) in Tanzania represents a milestone in India’s Global South initiative and highlights the commitment to develop educational relations between India and Africa. The digital transformation in India has played a significant role in enhancing education and healthcare in Africa through the implementation of e-VidyaBharti, a tele-education platform, and e-ArogyaBharti, a telemedicine platform. 

• Security and Defence: The aspect in question is frequently disregarded in scholarly discourse concerning the relations between India and Africa. While there is a perception that India’s increased focus on Africa is a response to China’s growing influence on the continent, encompassing trade, business, and maritime activities, PM Modi addressed the issue of collaboration with Africa during his visit to Uganda in 2018.

He emphasized India’s commitment to combat terrorism, promote peacekeeping efforts, and enhance cyber security as fundamental principles guiding India’s engagement with Africa. India’s historical assistance, which established military academics and trained national cadres and military personalities in African countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria and sent UN missions to Congo and Liberia, may be its greatest asset in this regard. India cooperates with Mauritius, Seychelles, and numerous African coastal nations on maritime security. The Africa-India field Training Exercise-2019 and numerous Indian institutes have promoted Indian-made weaponry to African nations facing instability. 

Can India Effectively Compete with China in Africa?

India and China are pursuing their interests in Africa in numerous ways. Despite the Indian government’s claim that its cooperation with Africa is a blend of India’s development goals and the African Union’s long-term vision, most of India’s policies and trade patterns with Africa remain constrained. India’s ties with the African Union, capacity and skills development, education and research, healthcare, and information technology demonstrate its people-centered approach to the continent. The Indian government also prioritizes cultural contacts with Eastern and Southern Africa, which some experts see as a chance to reestablish historical ties. 

Nevertheless, China’s dominant economic influence and significance in Africa remain unparalleled, surpassing not only India but also numerous other contenders. In 2021, Beijing’s total bilateral trade with Africa surged by 35.3% to reach USD 254.3 billion. China’s strategic focus primarily lies in the implementation of ambitious infrastructural projects, which serve the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and establish partnerships encompassing resource extraction and high-level government agreements.

These large-scale endeavours are aimed at bolstering China’s economy, expanding its global influence, and safeguarding its strategic objectives. China has a plan to promote its interests among regional blocs and geostrategic African states, unlike India’s limited outreach and penetration. India’s security and military collaboration with Africa is limited, the private sector doesn’t properly grasp Africa’s investment climate. China, on the other hand, has helped military reform in Africa by providing weapons, technology, and independent capacity-building. Since the West sanctioned Russia, China has increased its military outposts, maritime activity, and arms sales to African governments.

Potential Strategies for Progress

a) It is imperative to assert direct authority over our development programme rather than delegating the allocation of funds to intermediaries whose objectives may diverge from those of India.

b) Our assistance should be bilateral and linked with the recipient state’s interests, which should be a major stakeholder and co-investor in plans and projects from start to finish.

c)Second, India should prioritize developing nations with major interests, both current and future. Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Angola, and Algeria are India’s top six commercial partners in Africa, accounting for about two-thirds of its commerce and half of its exports to the continent, although they are not prioritized in India’s growth.

d)The consideration of India’s domestic requirements for raw materials, commodities, and markets should be taken into account when determining its aid strategy.

e) In addition, it is advisable to prioritize assisting nations that demonstrate a willingness to collaborate with us by granting access to their natural resources, rather than relying solely on our generic alternatives.

f) The assisted project should meet local needs. Cost-effective, scalable, future-proof, and commercially repeatable.

g) India should favor public sector assistance initiatives for transparency.

Conclusion

Historically, India’s diplomatic ties with Africa have been rooted in their shared endeavours to combat colonialism, apartheid, poverty, disease, illiteracy, and hunger. There have been modifications in policy, strategy, and implementation. The profound reflection of this sentiment is most evident in the two outcome documents of the India-Africa Forum Summit Ⅲ (IAFS-Ⅲ), namely the Delhi Declaration 2015 and the India-Africa Framework for Strategic Cooperation. India’s leadership’s effectiveness in calming Africa’s concerns will be shown in the following months and years. It’s crucial to show Africa that India’s foreign policy prioritizes it. A white paper on Africa might solidify India’s African strategy.

By: Rahul Wankhede

Introduction

After a period of inactivity following the Balakot airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force, the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror group, headquartered in Bahawalpur, seems to have revitalized its tactics to regain prominence in the terrorism landscape of Kashmir. In April 2023, the group claimed responsibility for the Poonch terror attack, where Indian Army soldiers were ambushed by Jaish terrorists. Additionally, the group has issued threats to target mines and industries in the region. Given the group’s renewed focus on Kashmir, it becomes crucial to examine its origins and journey up until 2019.

How the group was formed

JeM, meaning the ‘Army of Mohammed,’ is a relatively new organization founded on December 31, 2000. It is a Sunni Islamic group with its headquarters in Bahawalpur, located in the Pakistani Punjab province. The founder of JeM is Maulana Masood Azhar, who was previously associated with Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and shares ideological alignment with the Deobandi school of thought. Masood Azhar received training at the same religious seminary in Karachi as the Taliban founder Mullah Omar.

After gaining experience in Afghanistan, Masood Azhar established alliances with Harkat affiliates in Chechnya, Central Asia, and Somalia. He also established connections with Osama bin Laden during his fundraising mission in the United Kingdom. Maulana Masood Azhar was arrested by security forces on February 11, 1994, in Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, while serving as the General Secretary of the now-defunct Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. The hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC 814 in December 1999 was orchestrated to secure Masood Azhar’s release from prison. His younger brother, Mufti Abdul Rauf, and brother-in-law, Yusuf Azhar, were among the hijackers. Following his release, Azhar travelled to Bahawalpur, Pakistan, and announced the formation of a new outfit called JeM at the Binori mosque in Karachi, which received significant participation from existing terror groups. JeM has been officially banned in Pakistan since 2002.

Objectives of Jaish-e-Mohammed

 JeM shares similar objectives with other terrorist organizations operating in the Kashmir region, primarily aiming to secede Kashmir from India and merge it with Pakistan. Once Kashmir is liberated, the group intends to expand its jihad to other parts of India, with the goal of driving out Hindus and non-Muslims from the Indian subcontinent. JeM also seeks to expel United States and Western forces from Afghanistan. Masood Azhar, in 1994 after his arrest in Kashmir, expressed his intention to liberate Kashmir from Indian rule and establish Islamic rule. He also voiced his opposition to Israel and what he perceived as “anti-Muslim” forces worldwide. Masood Azhar, in a speech in Karachi, was reported to have said, “Marry for jihad, give birth for jihad, and earn money only for jihad until the cruelty of America and India ends.”

Ideological Foundations

 The Binori mosque serves as a significant source of ideological foundations for JeM, adhering to the Deobandi Sunni school of thought. Extremist leaders such as Fazlur Rahman Khalil of HuM and Maulana Azam Tariq, a leader of Siaph-e-Sahiba, are alumni of this mosque. Masood Azhar himself was a student of Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi, the founder of Sipah-e-Sahaba. JeM also had a website that published articles written by Masood Azhar, which often focused on the so-called “Jewish conspiracy to incite America for the invasion of Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

Leadership & Organizational Structure

 JeM operates through several departments overseen by a 12-member consultative committee called Markaz-e-majilis-e-Shura. The organization consists of departments such as the Military Department, Department of Prisoners, Department of Dawat and Irshad, Martyrs Department, Department of Grievance Redressal, Department of Matrimony, and Department of Broadcasting and Publication. The Military Department further comprises four sub-units: Madrasa Syed Ahmed Shaheed in Balakot, Camp Muzaffarabad, Camp Hajera, and Camp Mansehra. The Balakot Madrasa serves as an advanced training ground for JeM fighters and hosts annual conferences. Family members of Masood Azhar actively participate in the functioning of JeM. His brother, Abdul Rauf Asghar, holds a senior leadership position within JeM and serves as its intelligence coordinator. He was involved in the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC 814 and directed the terrorists during the 2016 Pathankot attack through telephone communication. Abdul Rauf Asghar has been designated as a “global terrorist” by the US Treasury Department.

Areas of Operations & Strategy

 JeM primarily focuses on carrying out attacks within India. They have conducted suicide bombings, targeted state authorities, army bases, camps, convoys, and other significant establishments. Their weapons of choice include machine guns, assault rifles, mortars, IEDs, and rocket-propelled grenades. JeM has also engaged in activities like abductions, hijackings, and targeted bombings. The group exhibits sophisticated communication methods, meticulous attack planning, and effective utilization of local human intelligence, making them deadlier than other militant groups in Kashmir. Simultaneously planning multiple high-profile attacks has become a recent trend for JeM, as seen after the CRPF convoy attack, where a suspect from Bathinda was arrested in a car bomb blast case, reportedly intended to replicate the Pulwama attack.

Outside of India, JeM carried out an attack on the Indian Mission in Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan, in 2016. The group has operational ties with other militant organizations like HuM, Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Lashkar-e-Taiba, conducting joint operations in Afghanistan and Kashmir. JeM has engaged in suicide missions targeting Pakistani officials in cities such as Islamabad, Karachi, Murree, Taxila, and Bahawalpur.

Capabilities (military and finance)

 JeM receives funding primarily through charitable front trusts like Al-Rasheed and Al-Akhtar, which operate as social welfare organizations but are involved in raising funds for various terror groups. The group has also allegedly received financial support from Al Qaeda. Donations are raised through propaganda, distribution of pamphlets, posters, and write-ups in religious and political magazines. The JeM has reportedly invested funds in commodity markets, real estate, and the production of commodity goods. Pakistan seized JeM’s bank accounts in the country, but the group had already withdrawn its funds. JeM has been listed as a terrorist organization by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Support Bases

JeM witnessed rapid advancement after its establishment in 2000, and its launch in Karachi attracted around 10,000 attendees. The group has bases in various locations, ranging from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to Doda in South Kashmir. JeM benefits from ground support and sheltering provided by the Pakistani ISI. A significant portion of JeM’s membership is from Punjab in Pakistan, particularly from Multan, Bahawalpur, and Rahim Khan districts. The shared ethnicity with the Pakistani military corps (Punjabis) was expected to align JeM with the military’s strategic goals. JeM also has members from Afghanistan and Arab countries. Ahmed Omar Sheikh, convicted of murdering American journalist Daniel Pearl, has close associations with JeM leaders. The group maintains connections with its ancestor organization, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, as well as operational ties with Lashkar-e-Taiba. JeM is part of the ISI-sponsored United Jihad Council, an umbrella organization of militant groups operating in Kashmir.

Current Status, Emerging Trends, Scope for Growth

While senior leader Ghazi Baba was killed in an operation by the Indian Army in August 2003, JeM still poses an active threat due to its global networks. The earthquake of 2005 destroyed many of its training camps, but the group quickly recovered. JeM is now considered one of the deadliest terrorist groups operating in Kashmir, with a broader agenda of Pan-Islamism and anti-Americanism due to its international connections. The Pakistani government’s detention and subsequent release of Masood Azhar on multiple occasions, often under external pressure, represent a futile exercise in showcasing justice. JeM exemplifies the complex network of cross-border terrorism faced by India and indicates the trend of decentralization in the new era of international terrorism, where self-inspired lateral networks are proving to be more dangerous than the original group itself.

The February 2019 Balakot strike by the Indian Air Force is said to have done a significant damage to JeM, as the chosen target area was sealed off for almost a month by Pakistan and access to outside people was cut off. Since then, JeM has not been able to carry out any kinds of anti-India activity. This is not to say that all future attacks have been prevented or the group is now defunct. This period is being used as a breathing time by the outfit to regroup and plan future attacks, obvious in which, the help of Pakistani deep state will be instrumental. A tinge of this was felt in 2022 when a Jaish terrorist recruited from Pulwama, came to Nagpur for conducting a reconnaissance of the RSS Headquarters and other prospective targets. He was subsequently arrested and is currently lodged in a jail.

A change of tactic that has been adopted by Jaish is to create affiliate groups and operate through them. One such group goes around by the name of PAFF – People’s Anti-Fascist Front. The wording of this name is different and ‘secular’ from the religious toning of the previous name of ‘Jaish-e-Mohammed’. The name also gives out a false impression that its target is ‘fascist forces within India’. This will be later on used to selectively portray the Indian state as a ‘fascist force’. This change of names and tactics is due to severe international pressure on Pakistan to act against terror groups. While Jaish is located inside Pakistan, PAFF claims to have originated in Kashmir itself – another change of tactic to give legitimacy to their cause. A third visible change of tactic is moving away from spectacular and high-value attacks to ambushes and localized attacks with an added aspect of marketing and publicity.

While the 2001 Parliament attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack were quite big in terms of the ‘target value’ and the location, the attack in Poonch was a commando style operation – carried out by a small team of terrorists who came in to attack, carried out the killings and fled the spot. They did not come there to wait and hold ground and to ‘die like a shaheed’. The Poonch attack was very well planned and coordinated by them, obviously not without local support. The target selection and the location of attack was also selected in way that would benefit the terrorists. As a result, the army vehicle was completely destroyed in the attack, and all soldiers occupying the army truck died on the spot, except one who is battling for his life in a hospital. The terrorists also recorded some clips of the attack as was visible from some of the clips shared by PAFF online, with complementary propaganda of more attacks to be done, just a few days after the attack. This is a strategy used to earn media coverage and signal to the government that ‘we are still capable of hurting you’.

It now remains for the security agencies to be on their high alert and work towards preventing further attacks, a long-term strategy for which would be to try for complete elimination of this problem from its very roots, that includes conducting overt and covert operations against all the terror groups, especially in areas where they are mainly located (outside and inside the Indian borders). This demands policy and perspective changes at the highest levels of national security management and decision making that needs to evolve as per the dynamic contemporary security scenarios.

By: Sanoop Suresh, Research Analyst, GSDN

Once more, France embarks on a movement, but this time the demand is not the reversal of pension reforms or the control of the rising cost of living, but rather the elimination of institutionalized racism. Racism is not a new phenomenon in France. In fact, the current events are a part and parcel of the normal lives of many minorities in the nation. The inception of the current riots in France is because an African Muslim teenager was shot to death by a police officer. This triggered a lot of motions across the country which called out the blatant racism existent in the nation. This event has been linked to the 2005 riots wherein two teenage boys of minority ethnicity died after hiding from police. These riots and their history gave insight into the background of racism in the nation.

Why France Protests?

On June 27, 2023, a police officer shot and killed 17-year-old Nahel M., in the chest while attempting to stop his rental car that had broken many traffic rules. Two police officers are seen attempting to stop the car in a video that has gone viral on social media and has been verified by the French news agency AFP. One of the police officers points his gun at the driver through the window and fires at close range when it appears that the driver is still trying to move the car. Before colliding, the automobile traveled a few meters. After the teenager’s death, a fight between frustrated citizens and the police broke out, leading to the deployment of 45,000 police when the demonstrations turned violent and the protesters vandalized various public facilities. Nahel came from the underprivileged neighborhoods of France and had Algerian descent. The fatal police shot was described as “unforgivable” and “inexplicable” by the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, as an attempt to ease the tension. The demonstrators demand that the government take action against the police since they stand accused of enjoying a “culture of impunity” and abuse. According to reports, over 3,600 people have been detained at an average age of 17 in France. Even though the violence receded over time, it left numerous lawsuits for vandalism and more than 800 law enforcement officers injured. These events also brought back concerns about the methods used by the police, who frequently target residents in low-income areas, especially minorities.

Is French Police Racist?

Owing to memories which long back to the Second World War, since the people officially designated as Jews were sent into concentration camps, the French government never collected data regarding race, ethnicity, and religion. Still, the racial biases in French institutions have often been pointed out by various agencies. The French Police is no exception in practicing institutionalized racism and often bears the blame for failing in their duty to provide impartial treatment.

A black music producer named Michael Zeckler was severely beaten by four police officers in Paris in November 2020, and the video of this incident gained widespread attention. This video came amidst the debates over a law which prohibits recording active police on duty and, consequently, the law was nullified by the top court due to concern over the accountability of police practices. According to research, people from low-income minority groups frequently have similar experiences. A 2017 study by the independent administrative body “Defender of Rights” reveals that police identity checks mostly target young men from visible minorities, supporting the notion that such checks are based on race. “80% of people corresponding to the profile of ‘young man perceived as black or Arab’ declare that they have been checked in the last five years,” according to a representative sampling of more than 5,000 people. On the other hand, only 16% of other respondents declare that they have been checked in identity check practice. Even while data indicate a bias inside the French police institution, a closer examination will provide more light on the changes in French politics brought on by the emergence of far-right political groups.

How Color Blind is France?

Even though France describes itself as a color-blind society, its politics is becoming less inclusive as a result of rising Far-Right political participation. There has been an increase in anti-immigrant attitudes across French society, and the far-right political groups frequently try to gain electoral support by appealing to the resentment of ordinary citizens towards the influx of immigrants. In November 2022, Grégoire de Fournas, a French lawmaker from the far-right National Rally party, was suspended from the assembly for yelling “Go back to Africa” during a speech by Carlos Martens Bilongo, a black colleague, about the difficulties faced by migrants while aboard a rescue boat operated by the non-profit organization SOS Méditerranée. Similar to this, Marine Le Pen, the leader of National Rally’s parliamentary party, gained 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the 2022 presidential elections despite being accused of supporting anti-immigrant, anti-multiculturalist, and anti-Islamic policies, even though she was eventually defeated by Macron.

When we look at two similar fundraisers that are taking place at the same time, we can see the changes in French society. A fundraiser for Nahel M.’s family reportedly brought in more than 200,000 euros from about 100,000 contributions. On the other hand, another fund-raiser for the family of the 38-year-old police officer who shot Nahel is taking place in France. It was established by Jean Messiha, an independent far-right populist and former Marine La Pen aide. In this, more than 1 million Euros has been raised from nearly 52,000 contributors. The considerable difference between these two fundraisers provides two important insights. Firstly, there is a growing indifference in French society regarding the plight of immigrants and ethnic minorities. Secondly, it highlights the polarization of wealth, and how it plays out in the debate over the elimination of systematic racism.

How Equal Is France?

According to a study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, there was a noticeable shift in who benefited from French economic strategies between 1950 and 2014. The data shows that between 1950 and 1983, the bulk of the population benefited from growth. However, after 1983, such gains have only been experienced by the top percentile. According to multiple reports, the disparity in the distribution of wealth in French society is at an all-time high and the Russia-Ukraine war makes the situation worse for the economically deprived suburbs in France.

The death of Nahel M. became the tipping point for the long-standing resentment over institutional apathy as there was an increasing sense of disillusionment among the socioeconomic strata. One of France’s poorest regions economically is the Paris suburbs, where the riots have been taking place. The feeling of marginalization felt by France’s ethnic minority fueled the violence. The social exclusion of racial and ethnic minorities in France is characterized by high unemployment, low educational achievement, and poverty compared to the majority of the French population.

Because the major political parties disregarded their demands for equitable economic distribution and inclusive policies, voting for smaller parties or staying home during elections became the norm in the suburbs. These communities find it challenging to voice their complaints and requests to the current political structures due to their perception of political disenfranchisement. Racial tensions and persistent social and economic inequalities were once more brought to light in French debate, but there were fewer prospects for effective remedies.

Will France Change?

The ethnic minority groups who belong to the low- income suburbs of France face three significant risks. Firstly, there is a growing racial apathy in French institutions and society, which is paired with the emergence of Far-Right ideas. Secondly, there is the financial hardship brought on by the political system’s failure to adopt inclusive policies. Finally, the lack of representation in France’s political institutions as a result of their incapacity to change into a political pressure group. Unsurprisingly, all of these issues were discussed in French politics, but they have never successfully changed the country’s political landscape.

Only the development and use of an open and impartial political system can restore trust in these institutions and the primary duty of French administration. To accomplish this, society and the government must consider the needs of ethnic and economic minorities when formulating policies and guarantee that everyone is treated fairly. Similarly, the political system has a duty to treat all segments of society equally from the institutions that have legal authority and are held accountable for their deeds. The assimilation of many socio-economic groups in mainstream society is hindered by the polarization of anti-immigrant and anti-multiculturalist views, and it is questionable how well French politics would perform in an altering political environment. Time alone has the answer to that query.

By: Vaibhav Borude, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world’s five oceanic divisions, covering   19.8% of the water on Earth’s surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west and Australia to the east. To the south it is bounded by the Southern Ocean or Antarctica. Along its core, the Indian Ocean has some large marginal or regional seas such as the Arabian Sea, Laccadive Sea, Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Indian Ocean is strategically and geo economically one of most important place of earth. Indian Ocean connects the petroleum producing gulf region to the wider market, thus makes an important place for transport and service sector.

The sea lanes in the Indian Ocean are considered among the most strategically important in the world with more than 80 percent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil transits through the Indian Ocean and its vital chokepoints, with 40 percent passing through the Strait of Hormuz, 35 percent through the Strait of Malacca and 8 percent through the Bab el-Mandab Strait.

Considering, this many countries had always tried to increase their power differentials in Indian Ocean space. Britian has long standing dispute with Mauritius on Chagos archipelago. USA has its naval base in Diego Garcia. Now, China wants to control the vital Indian Ocean, so is using its power to develop military bases and economic trade point like Chinese port in Djibouti.

With world gearing up to increase their influence in Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is trying to provide an unique platform for countries in this region to increase cooperation and coordination in Indian Ocean.

Indian Ocean Rim Association is an intergovernmental organization established on March 07, 1997. The late President of South Africa Nelson Mandela inspired this vision of Indian ocean rim association during his visit to India. “The natural urge of facts of history and geography should broaden itself to include the concept of an Indian Ocean RIM for socio- economic cooperation” was the vision of late president Nelson Mandela.

The structure of IORA consists of apex body ie the Council of Foreign Ministers (COM) which meets annually. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) assumed the role of Chair from November 2019 – November 2021, followed by the People’s Republic of Bangladesh November 2021 – November 2023. A committee of Senior Officials (CSO) meets twice a year to progress IORA’s agenda and consider recommendations by Working Groups and forums of officials, business and academics to implement policies and projects to improve the lives of people within the Indian Ocean Member States.

The charter of IORA has defined the various objectives that members seek to achieve. This includes, to promote the sustained growth and balanced development of the region and of the Member States, and to create common ground for regional economic co-operation. To focus on areas where economic cooperation can be achieved. To look for all avenues for trade liberalization, strengthen cooperation and dialogue among countries. The Priority Areas of the Indian Ocean Rim Association are:

1. Maritime Safety and Security;

2. Trade and Investment Facilitation;

3. Fisheries Management;

4. Disaster Risk Management;

5. Academic,

Science and Technology Cooperation; and

6. Tourism and Cultural Exchanges.

The IORA has also started many flagship initiatives such asIndian Ocean dialogue. The Indian Ocean Dialogue is established in its role as a stand-alone Track 1.5 discussion, encouraging an open and free flowing dialogue by key representatives of IORA Member States such as scholars, experts, analysts, and policy makers from governments, think tanks and civil societies on a number of crucial strategic issues of the Indian Ocean Region.

Somalia and Yemen development program is organized as a special capacity building program for this region. As the region has been the worst sufferer of conflict, radicalisation and civil war. The IORA has also launched theIORA Sustainable Development Program. The IORA Sustainable Development Program (ISDP) was introduced in 2014 and is dedicated for the least developed countries (LDCs) that require assistance and support to conduct projects, and with the main purpose to promote sharing experiences and best practices among IORA Member States. IORA has collaborated with UN Women to strengthen research on women’s economic empowerment, and promote the Women’s Empowerment Principles in the region, supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

India’s Role in IORA

• India continues to promote its official policy of “coordination, cooperation and partnership” in the regional maritime domain.
• As coordinator to the priority area on disaster risk management, India has published guidelines for IORA. It has also urged partners to join the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure launched at the UN in September 2019.
• India has been trying to emerge as the net provider of information in the IOR and in that direction it created the Information Fusion Centre located in Gurugram to assist member countries of IOR with real-time crisis information. Bangladesh, Mauritius, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Seychelles have been part of the information support structure of India.
• Indian policy takes into consideration that IOR is not an India-run maritime domain and that is reflected in the government’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) programme, which aims to turn the region more inclusive.

With rising importance of the Indian Ocean Region, a secure maritime environment in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is crucial for both India and African countries for securing national interests and achieving sustained national development. Such security means not only guarding the coastline or territories, but also safeguarding the countries’ interests in their exclusive economic zones (EEZs), as well as protecting trade and shipping routes, and sea-lanes of communications (SLOCs).

There are a number of challenges this region is facing. The region around western Indian Ocean is prone to threat from pirates. They threaten the development of secure sea lane communication in the region. India has net security provider of Indian ocean, has deployed its Naval forces to act against these threats and has been successful in reducing the intensity of pirate attacks.

The next big challenge of the region is in China’s ambition of making the Indian Ocean as its own backyard, like USA maintained its hegemony in the Pacific Ocean. China is trying to increase its influence in the region by using its Strings of Pearls theory. That aims to encircle India by the sea-route. They are aiming to gain upper hand in sea lanes of communication in this region for this they have launched a maritime component of Belt and Road Initiative ie Global Maritime Silk Route. That aims to develop trade links all around the world from China to Europe. China is also using its debt trap diplomacy to force countries in taking unsustainable debts and then when they fail to repay their infrastructure are taken on long lease by them. The Chinese have used this strategy well in Sri Lanka and also is trying to use it in Maldives and Mauritius.

The next big challenge facing this region is rising sea levels due to climate change. Many of this region face existential threats due to rising sea level. Many parts of this region would be submerged thus resulting in threat to survival for these countries. Despite many of them being net negative carbon emitters, the threat they face is highest. Mainly due to emission from developed countries.

However, with challenges come opportunities. India has a lot of opportunities in this region. Indians have a sizable number of diaspora in many of these countries that have been able to create an image of good friendly neighbour. India’s soft power has been greatly enhanced.

Along with it the rising stature of the Indian economy provides opportunities for the region to align with our trade goals and in the end develop their own economy. With the rising middle class in India, many countries of this region can develop from tourists from India. In an effort to become the primary source of information in the IOR, India established the Information Fusion Centre in Gurugram, which provides member nations with crisis information in real time. Bangladesh, Mauritius, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and the Seychelles have all contributed to India’s information support system. The Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) program, which strives to make the region more inclusive, reflects Indian policy’s recognition that the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is not an Indian-run maritime domain.

The Indian Ocean Rim Association A(IOR) must be India’s main priority. IOR’s mission to advance regional development that is both sustainable and equitable must be the cornerstone of any new initiative in the region. A unique regional cooperation initiative on the blue economy must be taken into consideration by IORA. That will fulfil the aspirations of the IOR countries.

By: Hitti Chopra, Research Analyst, GSDN

G7 is the group of seven countries that is an informal organization of the world’s advanced economies which dominate the international financial system and global trade. They are France, Germany, Italy, Canada, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. Russia belonged to the group from 1998 till 2014 when the block was known as G8 (Group of 8) but it was suspended following its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region.

History

The world in 1975 was experiencing high inflation followed by sparks of recession by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo leading to grouping of 6 countries – The United States, the UK, Japan, France, Italy and West Germany to counter the economic and political challenges at that time. Canada joined the grouping in 1976. G7 is not a formal institution with a secretariat and a charter. The Presidency rotates on an annual basis which is responsible for setting up of the agenda. Sherpas, ministers and envoys hammer out policy initiatives before the summit. All the G7 countries are a part of G20.

G7 and Russia

Russia formally joined the inter-governmental political forum in 1998, making it G8. The membership of Russia was indefinitely suspended due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The restoration of Russia membership was suggested by various countries. The German foreign minister in 2016 stated that “none of the major international conflicts can be solved without Russia”, and the G7 countries will consider Russia’s return to the group in 2017. But in 2017, Russia formally announced that it would permanently leave the G8 grouping.

G7 was considered a grouping that could serve ‘collective-action’ and have like minded nations but it was challenged during President Donald Trump’s tenure. He wanted readmission of Russia in the bloc and believed it was “common sense” to include Russia in the “outdated” group.

The “collective action” bloc and multilateralism

Multilateralism has always been the leading edge in the global geopolitics since the second world war. The emergence of United Nations, creation of forums like G7 and G20, the world has witnessed a transition from unipolar order towards multipolarity. It has given a rise to solving common global threats together but at the same time new uncertainties have intensified the relations between nations like US and China. The countries might resort to protectionist policy due to transnational issues however it is integral for nations to align regional, national, global strategies to maintain the global order. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in G20 summit has mentioned that “Today, we do not need to fight for our survival-our era need not be one of war. Indeed, it must not be one.”

G7 is an exclusive group of industrialised nations and was created with the aim to maintain the economic stability of these seven nations. G20 is a group of both developing and developed countries and is focused on international cooperation and decision making. It covers around 85 percent of world GDP and two thirds of world population. Emerging powers including India, Brazil, Mexico, China, and South Africa, whose absence from the G7 is often mentioned, all belong to the G20. The overlapping of G7 and G20 mandates can be synergized ensuring a balance between the developing and developed worlds. Multilateralism is necessary in the multipolar world especially after COVID 19 pandemic. The G7 and G20 can work together in the support of multilateralism and can play an important role in global cooperation and coordination. The issue of food security, climate change, cyber warfare, technological disruptions, the common global threats which both institutions face can be addressed together and both the institutions can work together to build consensus among member states.

Challenges the group face

The G7’s future has been challenged by continued tensions with Russia and China. The bloc has imposed coordinated sanctions on Russia in response to the Ukraine war. The current G7 Presidency is under Japan and the latter has raised concern over the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

The rise of Belt and Road Initiative of China is also a major concern for the grouping and recently in the springs G7 summit in Hiroshima, the bloc vowed to deliver the goal of up to $600 billion in financing for quality infrastructure through the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment, which is a rival to China’s Belt and Road initiative. During a trip to China prior to the G7 summit in 2023 as mentioned by the Council on Foreign Relations, French President Emmanuel Macron said the EU should avoid becoming pulled into a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, drawing some backlash from U.S. lawmakers.

Beijing has also often faced backlash for its human rights policy against its citizens from G7. The bloc leaders said in their statement “We call on China not to conduct interference activities aimed at undermining the security and safety of our communities, the integrity of our democratic institutions and our economic prosperity”, citing the Vienna Convention which regulates diplomatic affairs.

The industrialised G7 countries accounting for 20 percent of global emissions have been lukewarm with their commitments and majority of the pledges have been diluted further. The bloc has been under constant scanner for their ongoing dependence on fossil fuels especially coal. The G7 countries have to redirect and mobilize their financial support to renewable energy and aim to remove market distortions.

Conclusion

The current spring G7 summit conducted in Hiroshima Japan has showcased how the leaders of G7 came together on unified positions regarding Russia and China. The grouping can be of global good if it aligns its mandate vis a vis other multilateral forum across world like G20 and Quad which can result in fostering regional and global development, enhance cultural interchange and strengthen global governance.

By: Varshitha Eddula, Research Analyst, GSDN

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Egypt’s capital Cairo on June 24- 25, 2023 for his maiden visit on the second leg of his two-nation tour. PM Modi arrived in Cairo for after wrapping up a successful visit to the US. The visit was at the invitation of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of Egypt, which he extended to PM Modi in January 2023 when he attended the Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi as the Chief Guest. This was for the first time that President of the Arab Republic of Egypt had been invited as Chief Guest on the Republic Day of India.

This is PM Modi’s first visit to Egypt as Prime Minister and the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister after 26 years. Upon arriving in Cairo, PM Modi was greeted with a ceremonial welcome and guard of honour and in a special honour, he was received by his Egyptian counterpart Mostafa Madbouly at the airport.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a roundtable meeting with his Egyptian counterpart Mostafa Madbouly in Cairo on Saturday. Later in the day Prime Minister met the Grand Mufti of Egypt Dr Shawki Ibrahim Abdel-Karim Allam. He also met Hassan Allam, CEO of Hassan Allam Holding Company in Cairo on Saturday, and called the meeting “fruitful”. In addition to topics relating to the economy and investments, I really enjoyed hearing his passion towards preserving cultural heritage in Egypt,” Modi said on Twitter about Hassan Allam. 

Prime Minister Modi also met yoga practitioners Nada Adel and Reem Jabak in Cairo on Saturday. “Nada Adel and Reem Jabak are making commendable efforts to make Yoga popular across Egypt. Had a wonderful conversation with them in Cairo,” Modi wrote on Twitter about his meeting with Nada Adel and Reem Jabak. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Egyptian author Tarek Heggy in Cairo on Saturday. “He shared his insightful views on global issues. I admire his rich knowledge on issues relating to different cultures,” Modi wrote about the meeting.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first official engagement in the country on Saturday was a meeting with the India Unit, a group of high-level ministers constituted by El-Sisi in March to enhance India-Egypt relations. Seven members of the Egyptian Cabinet, led by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, were also present during the discussions on deepening trade relations and strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries. “The setting up of the India Unit in the Egyptian cabinet indicates the priority given to India-Egypt ties,” Modi said.

The second day of the maiden visit to Egypt started when Prime Minister Modi visited the historic 11th-century Al-Hakim Mosque in Cairo on Sunday, which was restored with the help of India’s Dawoodi Bohra community. Over a thousand years old, Al-Hakim is the fourth oldest mosque in Cairo, and the second Fatimid Mosque to be built in the city. The mosque covers an area of 13,560 square metres, with the iconic central courtyard occupying 5,000 square metres.

The Dawoodi Bohra Muslims are a sect of followers of Islam who adhere to the Fatimi Ismaili Tayyibi school of thought. They are known to have originated from Egypt and later shifted to Yemen, before establishing a presence in India in the 11th century.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also visited the Heliopolis Commonwealth War Cemetery in Cairo and offered tributes to the Indian soldiers who bravely fought and laid down their lives in Egypt and Palestine during the First World War. Modi offered floral tributes and signed the visitor’s book at the Cemetery that comprises the Heliopolis (Port Tewfik) Memorial and the Heliopolis (Aden) Memorial. The Heliopolis (Port Tewfik) Memorial commemorates nearly 4,000 Indian soldiers who died fighting in Egypt and Palestine in the First World War.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi conferred the highest state honor ‘Order of Nile’ on Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the presidential palace in Cairo. Instituted in 1915, the ‘Order of the Nile’ is conferred upon heads of states, crown princes, and vice presidents who offer Egypt or humanity invaluable services. This is the 13th highest state honour conferred upon Prime Minister Modi by any nation.

The ‘Order of the Nile’ is a pure gold collar consisting of three-square gold units comprising Pharaonic symbols. The first unit resembles the idea of protecting the state against evils, the second one resembles prosperity and happiness brought by the Nile and the third one refers to wealth and endurance. The three units are connected to one another by a circular gold flower decorated with turquoise and ruby. Hanging from the collar is a hexagonal pendant decorated with flowers of the Pharaonic style, and turquoise and ruby gems. In the middle of the pendant, there is a protruding symbol representing the Nile that brings together the North (represented by the Papyrus) and the South (represented by the Lotus).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi toured the great pyramids of Giza on the outskirts of the Egyptian capital, which were included in the Seven Wonders of the World.

Escorted by Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Modi visited the three pyramids of the 4th-dynasty erected on a rocky plateau on the west bank of the Nile River near Al-Jizah (Giza) in northern Egypt. The Great Pyramid of Giza, which is the largest Egyptian pyramid and served as the tomb of pharaoh Khufu, who ruled under the Fourth Dynasty of the Old Kingdom. Built in the early 26th century B.C., over a period of about 27 years, the pyramid is the oldest of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World, and the only wonder that has remained largely intact.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi signed an agreement to elevate the bilateral relationship to a “Strategic Partnership”. Both the leaders discussed ways to further deepen the partnership between the two nations, including in trade, investment, defence, security, renewable energy, cultural and people-to-people ties. In addition, three Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in the fields of agriculture, archaeology and antiquities and competition law were also signed between India and Egypt.

India Egypt bilateral relationship

India and Egypt also share a close political understanding based on a long history of contact and cooperation in bilateral, regional and global issues. The joint announcement of the establishment of diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level was made on August 18, 1947.
Since the 1980s, there have been four Prime Ministerial visits from India to Egypt. Rajiv Gandhi visited the country in 1985, PV Narasimha Rao in 1995, IK Gujral in 1997, and Manmohan Singh in 2009. From the Egyptian side, President Hosni Mubarak visited India in 1982, 1983 (NAM Summit), and again in 2008. High-level exchanges with Egypt continued after the Arab Spring uprising in 2011 and then President Mohamed Morsi visited India in March 2013. External Affairs Minister (EAM) visited Cairo in March 2012 and the Egyptian Foreign Minister visited India in December 2013. Egypt has also been invited as a ‘Guest Country’ during India’s Presidency of G-20 in 2022-23.

The bilateral trade between India and Egypt achieved a record high of USD 7.26 billion in FY 2021-22. The trade was fairly balanced, with USD 3.74 billion Indian exports to Egypt and USD 3.52 billion imports from Egypt to India. During this period (FY21-22), India was the 6th largest export destination and 6th most significant source of imports as well. During April 2022-January 2023 period of FY 2022-23, the bilateral trade has reached nearly USD 4.4 billion, with USD 2.9 billion worth exports from India and USD 1.5 billion worth imports from Egypt to India. More than 50 Indian companies have invested around USD 3.15 billion in diverse sectors of Egyptian economy, including chemicals, energy, textile, garment, agri-business, retail, etc.

In the area of defence cooperation, India and Egypt have good relations. Desert Warrior exercise was conducted as the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the air force of the two countries. The more recent exercise between the special forces is another indication of the growing willingness to work together. The Egyptians have also shown some interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters. A military contingent from the Egyptian Army participated in this year’s Republic Day parade.

The cooperation during Covid-19 and Russia–Ukraine war stand the test of friendship. When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by dispatching three plane loads of medical supplies and providing 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021. India reciprocated a year later when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation following the abrupt halt in wheat shipments from Ukraine following the war. In May last year, India — which had put a ban on sale of wheat — allowed export of 61,000 tonnes to Egypt.

The development cooperation between the two nations includes grants-in-aid projects. These include Pan Africa Tele-medicine and Tele-education project in Alexandria University, Solar electrification project in Agaween village and Vocational Training Centre for textile technology in Shoubra, Cairo, which have been completed. Since 2000, over 1300 Egyptian officials have benefited from ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) and other programs like ICCR (Indian Council for Cultural Relations) and IAFS (India Africa Forum Summit). The Maulana Azad Centre for Indian Culture (MACIC) has been promoting cultural cooperation between the two countries.

By: Aleena T. Sabu, Research Analyst, GSDN

Manipur has been a host of ethnic conflict and violence since May 03, 2023. There have been many issues that have triggered this violence but what set off the violence was a judgement from the Manipur High Court on April 20, 2023 regarding the reservation for the Meitei community. Briefly, it seems as if the judgement was the sole reason, but this is not true, the relations between the two communities have been slowly eroding for the past couple of years. Many other issues in the background and history have offset the current scenario in Manipur.  The violence in Manipur is disregarded by the mainstream media as conflict of interest between two ethnic groups, but a broader understanding of the issue is needed in order to understand the truth.

What is happening in Manipur?

In the northeastern State of India, Manipur violence erupted at the beginning of May 2023 and it has killed almost 100 people and wounded more than 300 and has displaced 60000 people in the past two months. The State Government has made use of the same methods used in other states when an emergency happens, such as cutting off the internet, military curfew, and stationing paramilitary troops with orders to shoot in extreme conditions.

What caused the recent issues in the state was when the Manipur High Court asked the State Government to consider Scheduled Tribe status for the Meitei Community, which is the dominant community in the region. Giving them this status would allow them to enjoy the benefits from the government. The Meitei community have been asking for this status for a long time and it was not granted yet because there was a fear it would cause a row between the communities. And just as they expected, the Kuki community came out protesting this move. Soon after the announcement from the court, a rally was organised by the All Tribal Students Union of Manipur on May 3, 2023.

Violence erupted soon with the burning down of the Anglo-Kuki War Memorial Gate. This led to the Kuki community torching localities of the Meitei community in Churachandpur. This in turn triggered the Meitei to burn down Kuki communities in Imphal Valley.

Background and Continuity

The protests might seem like the immediate reason for the ethnic conflicts, but it’s not. There have been years-long issues between both communities. They stem from the government’s actions of clamping down on reserved forests in the hill areas and the feeling of persecution felt by the Kuki community.

The Kuki community have also been angered by the government’s policy with respect to the refugees from Myanmar who they share very strong ties with. These refugees entered India escaping from violence in their nation and the government’s tough stance against them has been sighted as another reason for the conflict.

Another major issue is said to be about how the tribal community moves into the nearby forest lands as the population is increasing. These tribes see the surrounding lands as their ancestral land which they have complete rights to, but this angers the Meitei community, who do not have the right to buy land in the hill regions. The government has no real policy as to how to recognise the new villages and it has no transparent forest policy. This seems very troubling for a lot of people. These issues have been said to be some of the major reasons for the conflict in the region.

Almost 60,000 people have been displaced in total and some of them have taken shelter in camps and there are almost 350. Around 40,000 Indian Army soldiers, paramilitaries and police are stationed and they are finding it increasingly difficult to stop the violence. Weapons are said to have been smuggled in from Myanmar in illegal ways and only a quarter of them have been given back.

Both the communities have been accusing the authorities of siding with one side of the community and this has led to the vandalising and destroying of many churches and temples. The homes of important government officers are also destroyed. The normal life is on a choke hold with schools shut down, night curfew imposed, internet shutdown, barricades set against trucks bringing essentials.

Posts on social media that can get through the internet shutdown frequently contain messages of hatred, discord, and misery. The cost of basic goods is increasing, and trucks transporting food, medicine, and other necessities have become trapped. Although it is not yet obvious how the conflict will develop soon.

How the Indian Army is stuck in the middle

The Indian Army has been caught in the ethnic conflict between both communities, with them recently releasing a video of some 1500 women blocking their convoy in Itham village in Manipur’s Imphal East district on June 24, 2023. These women were demanding the release of some hardcore militants of KYKL (Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup). They were a banned insurgent group which had killed 20 personnel in one of the Indian Army regiments.

“Such unwarranted interference is detrimental to timely response by the security forces during critical situations to save lives and property,” the Indian Army said. This is one example of how the Army is caught between the violence of the Kuki and Meitei communities. Women from both communities constantly come and block roads and interfere with the security operations. The Indian Army is constantly blamed for taking side with the Kuki or the Meitei community.

The Indian Army was employed when the crisis hit the state and their last resort against the violence that was happening in the state was to call in the Indian Army. The violence and fatalities that occurred during the Tribal Solidarity March, which was supported by various organisations, made the already tense inter-ethnic situation even more explosive and ignited a conflict that has persisted to this day. The Indian Army and Assam Rifles initially deployed 17 columns at the state administration’s request; given the course of the crisis, the number has increased to 147 columns (nearly 10,000 people across ranks). This is perhaps the largest deployment of the Indian Army and Assam Rifles to assist civic authorities in restoring order, since India gained Independence in 1947.

The calling in of the Indian Army is essentially a sign of the failed administration of the State Government in managing the situation. Since the Army has been stationed for about two months, there is a need to improve the protocol for involving it in law-and-order concerns, which are primarily the responsibility of state police and paramilitary forces.

Changing Politics between BJP and the Christian Community

The Christian community in Kerala have essentially aligned with the BJP government after the perceived threats from the jihadists. The Community had promised BJP seats and a good number of vote bank from the community, but what changed this was the immediate violence happening in Manipur and the Modi government’s silence regarding the matter.

The Church explains how the Christian community members are solely targeted in the ethnic conflict and churches have been vandalised too. This Manipur violence is said to have bought an end to the ideological politics between the BJP and the Church.

What lies forward

Home Minister Amit Shah visited Manipur on a four-day visit on June 1, 2023. He announced at a press conference that there will be a judicial probe into the matter and measures will be taken to contain the issue at hand. The committee will be led by a retired high court judge. He also announced the formation of a commission for peace made up of representatives from various groups, the construction of further border fencing with Myanmar, and a demand for the return of 1,420 guns thought to have been stolen from local police since the fighting began.

There also have been efforts taken at local level to initiate peace talks between the communities. Women’s groups across northeast India have issued appeals and formed “Mothers Peace Committees” in various localities. Peace and prayer meetings are being held by several communities and religious leaders have also been calling for peace. Others have called for the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

Recently, Rahul Gandhi also visited and assured the people of Manipur of peace and appropriate measures will be taken to handle the issue. At large, there is a need to hold talks with the community members and deal with the issues at hand. There is a need for an open discussion in order to solve the issues and a chance to talk freely between the communities too. An urgent need to solve the violence escalation is crucial for the people of Manipur and for India too, as Manipur is a border state and unrest in a border state can have serious geopolitical ramifications. 

By: Abhyuday Saraswat, Research Analyst, GSDN

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived at Washington DC, he was given a ceremonial greeting at the White House’s South Lawn by President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden on a cloudy morning of June 22, 2023 Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden marked what they have termed a new chapter in the relationship between India and the United States.

A few thousand people from the Indian diaspora, some of whom yelled “Modi, Modi,” and representatives from both sides of the cabinet were there. The two sides unveiled a long list of deliverables encompassing defence, critical and emerging technologies, health, energy, and mobility during the visit, which was more than just pomp and circumstance. This was described by Mr. Biden as a “next-generation partnership” between the two nations.

Defence MOU’s

After the signing of an MoU with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), a division of General Electric (GE), General Electric Aerospace announced on June 22, 2023 that it will co-produce its F414 engines in India. This news coincides with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ongoing state visit to the United States. Plans were for just a 58 percent technology transfer for fighter aircraft engines in 2012. This increased to 80% following many rounds of discussions.

A day after PM Modi’s meeting with numerous prominent American business leaders, including H. Lawrence Culp Junior, Chairman and CEO of General Electric, and CEO of General Electric Aerospace, the company announced their statement via a press release. The subsidiary referred to the arrangement as a “major milestone” and stated that the F414 engines will power the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk II that is being manufactured in India.

Modi’s visit also saw the announcement of intentions to purchase General Atomics MQ-9B HALE UAVs, which is a significant milestone. The MQ-9Bs, which will be assembled in India, will improve India’s armed forces’ ISR capabilities across domains. General Atomics will also create a Comprehensive Global MRO facility in India as part of this strategy to help India’s long-term ambitions of increasing indigenous defence capabilities, according to the joint release.

Once deployed and operational, these HALE UAVs will be able to carry out and supplement the IAF’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Armed with payloads, the weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will be able to hit critical targets in mountains and the marine sector during long-endurance missions.

Space Deals

India decided to join the Artemis Accords on June 22, 2023 and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Indian Space Research Organisation decided to launch a collaborative mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s maiden State visit to the US. The Artemis Accords, which establish a shared vision for space exploration for the benefit of all people, are being signed by India.

The Artemis Accords are a non-binding collection of principles intended to direct civil space research and utilisation in the twenty-first century. They are based on the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 (OST). An American-led initiative aims to send people back to the moon by 2024, with the ultimate objective of extending space travel to Mars and beyond.

This year, NASA and ISRO will also work together to build a strategy framework for human spaceflight, along with working on NISAR.

Technology and Communication

According to the joint statement published, India and the US would concentrate on steps that encourage more knowledge exchange, co-production prospects with semiconductors, 5G and 6G communication networks, quantum computing, and high-end computing.

In a statement issued following a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the US, both governments committed to advancing policies and modifying regulations to enable more opportunities for technology sharing, co-development, and co-production between US and Indian business, government, and academic institutions.

Foreign Investments

In 2021, the Indian semiconductor market was valued at USD 27.2 billion, and it is predicted to rise at a high CAGR of approximately 19% to reach USD 64 billion in 2026. However, none of these chips are currently being developed in India.

During the visit, a US official announced that US semiconductor company Micron will invest $800 million in an Indian chip facility. Micron’s investment in India comes at a time when the country’s demand is expected to skyrocket.

Along with that, the producer of chipmaking equipment said that Applied Materials will invest $400 million over four years in a new engineering centre in India.

Bilateral talks and Joint sessions

• With your help, we were able to fortify the Quad in support of an Indo-Pacific region that is free, open, secure, and prosperous. People will recall the Quad in the future and claim that it changed the course of history for the betterment of humanity, said Joe Biden, US President.
• In his address to Congress, Modi warned that “the dark clouds of coercion and confrontation are casting their shadow in the Indo-Pacific.” “One of the main concerns of our partnership has evolved into the stability of the region.”
• The world order is changing in the post-Covid age. The partnership between India and the US would be crucial in this time period for boosting global power. As stated by PM Modi, India and the US are committed to cooperating for world peace, stability, and prosperity.
• The alliance is one of the most important in the world and is the strongest, closest, and most vibrant ever. Together with Prime Minister Modi, President Joe Biden issued a press release.
• “We are a democracy; democracy is ingrained in both India and America. Democracy is ingrained in our DNA as a way of life and is guaranteed by our Constitution. I can identify with the conflicts of tolerance, persuasion, and policy. I can comprehend the argument about ideologies and concepts. PM Narendra Modi tells the joint session of the US Congress, “But I am glad to see you come together to celebrate the links between two great democracies India and the United States.
• On India’s foreign policy, Prime Minister Modi said: “We live by the maxim ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” the world is one family. We interact with the world for the good of everyone. One Earth, One Family, One Future, which will be our G20 Summit theme, embodies the same attitude. Last Monday, all countries endorsed our UN request to erect a wall of honour for the peacekeepers.

Soft Power

• Indian Americans have made significant progress in the US and have consistently found a welcoming home in the nation. Indian Americans have significantly contributed to the development of the US economy and its inclusive society.
• PM Modi discusses the significance of the Vedas in the US Congress. The Vedas are one of the world’s oldest scriptures. They are a great treasure of humanity, composed thousands of years ago.”
• PM Modi on the diversity of India “All global religions have a place here, and we celebrate them all. Diversity is a way of life in India.”
• India’s ambition goes beyond simply focusing on development that helps women. In the words of PM Modi, it is about women leading the development process.
• On the significance of sustainable development, PM Modi noted that Indian culture holds the environment and the planet in the highest regard.

Terrorism and War

Modi said he has spoken explicitly and publicly that “this is not an era of war,” despite the fact that the situation in Ukraine is inflicting immense suffering in the area. However, it is one of negotiation and diplomacy. Which clearly marks that India is taking the neutral stand of Peace and urging others to follow suit as well.

In his speech to the US Congress, Prime Minister Modi demanded that the sponsors of terrorism be brought to justice. In his veiled criticism of Pakistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that there can be “no ifs or buts” when it comes to combating terrorism and calling for action against state sponsors of terrorism.

After 9/11 and more than ten years after the 26/11 in Mumbai, Prime Minister Modi stated in his speech to the Joint Meeting of the US Congress that radicalization and terrorism continue to pose a serious threat to the whole globe.

These philosophies keep changing their names and appearances, but their goals remain the same. There can be no ifs or buts in dealing with terrorism because it is an adversary of humanity. We must defeat all of these organisations that support and spread terrorism, he declared.

A new era for US-India ties

After the White House threw out the red carpet for the Indian Prime Minister, citing agreements on defence and trade geared at limiting China’s influence globally, U.S. President Joe Biden and Narendra Modi heralded a new era in their nations’ ties.

India has traditionally cherished its independence, and the two nations are not formally allied, but Washington wants Delhi to provide a strategic counterbalance to China. Although neither leader specifically criticised Beijing in their official speeches, they made references to the Xi Jinping-led administration.

This State visit comes at a time of War, Coercion, and Aggression, and the partnership of India with the USA is important in bringing the Global South closer to the USA and, more importantly, countering the threat of China in the Indo-Pacific.