By : Pratyush Raj, Research Analyst, GSDN
Introduction
The United States has long been considered the world’s most powerful military power. Its strength comes from its large defence budget, advanced aircraft, aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, missiles, drones, satellites, and military bases across the world. The US military can also move troops and equipment over very long distances and conduct operations far from its own territory.
The 2026 Iran War, however, has raised questions about how sustainable this military power is during a prolonged conflict. The United States has carried out major attacks against Iran and has damaged important Iranian military capabilities. At the same time, American forces have faced repeated missile and drone attacks, used large quantities of expensive weapons, suffered casualties and lost or damaged military aircraft.
This raises an important question: Has the Iran War weakened the US military?
The answer is not simply yes or no. The United States has not been defeated by Iran and remains much stronger in conventional military terms. However, the war has exposed weaknesses in American military readiness, particularly in weapons stocks, air defence, logistics and the protection of overseas bases. The war has therefore not ended American military superiority, but it has shown the costs and limits of maintaining that superiority during a long conflict.
The Cost of the War
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. The American campaign relied heavily on-air power, precision weapons and attacks on Iranian military infrastructure. Iran responded with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones against American and allied positions across the region.
The conflict continued much longer than many initially expected. By September, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the war had cost the United States around $38 billion, with approximately $3 billion in additional costs every month if the conflict continued. A Pentagon report covering the period until June 30 also found that around $22 billion had been spent on munitions used during the operation.
There has also been a human cost. The Pentagon reported at least 18 US military deaths by June 30, including 11 killed in action and seven deaths from non-hostile incidents. At least 417 military personnel were wounded in Iranian attacks during the same period. These figures do not suggest that the United States has lost the war. They do show, however, that even a major technological advantage cannot prevent a prolonged conflict from creating substantial financial and military costs.
Depletion of Missile Stocks
One of the biggest concerns created by the war is the amount of advanced ammunition used by American forces. The US military depends heavily on precision-guided weapons because they allow American forces to attack targets from long distances. However, these weapons are expensive and often difficult to produce quickly.
In August, Reuters reported that the United States had used virtually all of its ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles during the war. These are important long-range weapons that give American forces the ability to strike targets from a considerable distance. The United States also used a significant portion of its Tomahawk cruise-missile stock.
This is important because these weapons are not required only for Iran. They are also part of American preparations for possible conflicts involving countries such as China and Russia. A large reduction in available long-range missiles can therefore affect American readiness beyond the Middle East. This does not mean that the United States has run out of weapons. The problem is more specific: some important types of advanced weapons have been used faster than they can be replaced.
That creates a readiness problem because the US military has to remain prepared for several possible threats at the same time. If a large part of its stock is used in one conflict, rebuilding that stock becomes necessary before the military can be fully prepared for another major war.
Pressure on Air Defence
The United States has also faced pressure while defending its own forces from Iranian attacks. Iran has used ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, forcing American forces to rely on systems such as Patriot and THAAD. These systems have protected American personnel and military installations, but their use has also reduced the number of available interceptors.
This creates an important economic problem. Iran can use relatively inexpensive drones or missiles, while the United States may have to use a much more expensive interceptor to destroy them. The American system may successfully stop the attack, but repeated exchanges can still put pressure on US weapons stocks.
The problem becomes more serious during a long war because advanced interceptors cannot be produced instantly. The United States has therefore started increasing production. In September, the Pentagon awarded RTX’s Raytheon a provisional $20.7 billion contract to increase AMRAAM missile production. It has also signed a $58.6 billion Patriot interceptor agreement with Lockheed Martin.
These contracts show that Washington recognizes the need to rebuild its weapons stocks. However, factories need time to expand production, find workers, and secure specialized components. The war has therefore exposed a gap between the number of weapons that the US military may need during a major conflict and the speed at which industry can replace them.
Vulnerability of American Bases
Another important lesson from the war is the vulnerability of American military bases in the Middle East. The United States operates military facilities in countries including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Iraq. These bases are strategically important because they allow American forces to operate close to potential conflict zones.
However, they can also become targets. Iran has repeatedly used missiles and drones against American military facilities. A Pentagon watchdog report found that hundreds of buildings and structures at US military installations in the region were damaged or destroyed during the conflict.
American aircraft have also been lost or damaged. The Pentagon report recorded the loss of at least 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones, along with damage to other aircraft. The Reaper is important because it provides surveillance, intelligence, and strike capabilities without putting a pilot directly in danger.
The attacks have shown that American bases are not completely protected by distance. Modern missiles and drones can travel long distances and threaten aircraft, buildings, fuel supplies, and other infrastructure. This could force the United States to rethink how it protects overseas bases. Greater dispersal of aircraft, stronger shelters, and better air-defence systems may become increasingly important in future conflicts.
The Logistics Problem
The war has also highlighted the importance of logistics. Military strength is not only about aircraft, ships, and missiles. A military also needs fuel, spare parts, ammunition, maintenance facilities and transportation. Without these resources, even advanced weapons cannot continue operating effectively.
The Iran War has created logistical challenges for American forces in the region. A Pentagon assessment highlighted difficulties involving naval bases and access to ports for resupply. It also noted the long distances involved in shifting logistics support to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, where sea transportation could require 14 to 18 days.
Such distances may not be a major problem during peacetime, but they become important during war. If an aircraft needs a spare part or a military unit needs ammunition, delays can affect operations. The conflict has therefore shown that America’s global military presence is both an advantage and a challenge. The United States can operate across the world, but maintaining those forces requires a large and complicated supply network.
Has Iran Defeated the United States?
Despite these problems, it would be incorrect to say that Iran has defeated the United States militarily. The military balance between the two countries remains heavily in America’s favour. The United States has advanced aircraft, aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, sophisticated intelligence systems, satellites and a much larger defence-industrial base.
American forces have also carried out major attacks against Iranian military infrastructure, including air-defence systems, radar installations, missile facilities and maritime assets. US Central Command has continued to report offensive operations against Iranian military targets.
Iran therefore has not demonstrated that it can match the United States in conventional military power. What Iran has demonstrated is something different: a weaker military can still impose significant costs on a much stronger opponent. By using missiles and drones, Iran has forced the United States to spend large amounts of money on defence while using valuable ammunition. This does not amount to defeating the American military, but it does show that American superiority does not mean that every conflict will be cheap or easy.
Why the War Matters Beyond Iran
The lessons from Iran are particularly important because the United States also must prepare for possible conflicts with countries that have much greater military resources. China has a large missile arsenal, a growing navy and an expanding defence industry. Russia also possesses a major missile capability and a large military-industrial base.
If Iran can put pressure on American missile stocks and air-defence systems, a conflict with a larger military power could create an even greater challenge. This is particularly important in the Indo-Pacific. A possible conflict involving China would cover a huge geographical area, requiring American forces to protect aircraft carriers, air bases, ships and supply routes across thousands of kilometers.
The depletion of American weapons during the Iran War therefore matters beyond the Middle East. American defence planners have to consider whether the country has enough weapons to sustain one major conflict while still being prepared for another crisis.
Rebuilding American Military Capacity
The United States has already started taking steps to increase weapons production. In August, the US Navy awarded Raytheon a $22.9 billion contract intended to increase Tomahawk production from around 60 missiles a year to more than 1,000. The September AMRAAM contract is another example of this effort. These decisions show that Washington understands that the problem is not only the quality of its weapons but also the number available.
However, rebuilding military stocks cannot happen immediately. Defence factories need additional workers, raw materials, machinery, and specialized components. Some advanced weapons also require complicated production processes. This means that the United States may face a temporary gap between what its military needs during a conflict and what its defence industry can produce at that moment. The Iran War has therefore raised questions about the quantity as well as the quality of American military equipment.
The Need for Cheaper Defences
Another lesson from the war is the need for cheaper ways of dealing with drones and other relatively inexpensive threats. Using an expensive interceptor against a dangerous ballistic missile may be necessary. However, repeatedly using costly missiles against cheaper drones can put pressure on American weapons stocks and defence spending.
The United States is therefore likely to increase its focus on electronic warfare, directed-energy weapons and cheaper interceptors. These systems could deal with smaller threats while allowing advanced missile-defence systems to focus on more serious attacks. This would create a layered defence system in which the most expensive weapons are not used against every incoming threat.
Conclusion
The Iran War has not broken or defeated the US military. The United States remains the world’s most powerful military, with major advantages in air power, naval power, intelligence, technology and defence production. However, the conflict has exposed important weaknesses in American military readiness. Large quantities of advanced weapons have been used, American bases have suffered damage, aircraft and drones have been lost, and American servicemembers have been killed and wounded. The financial cost has also reached tens of billions of dollars. The most important lesson is that military superiority is not only about having the most advanced weapons. It is also about having enough weapons, supplies, and production capacity to continue fighting for a long period. Iran has shown that a country with fewer military resources can still create serious costs for a much stronger opponent by using missiles and drones, attacking military bases and forcing the United States to use expensive defensive systems.
Therefore, the Iran War should not be viewed as a defeat for American military power. Instead, it has exposed weaknesses that were already present in the US defence system. The United States now has to rebuild missile stocks, increase production, improve the protection of overseas bases and find cheaper ways to deal with drones and other low-cost threats. The war has therefore weakened some aspects of US military readiness, but it has not fundamentally weakened US military power. Its long-term significance will depend on how successfully the United States responds to these lessons and prepares for future conflicts.
