By: Chethana Enugula
The current Bangladesh-Myanmar tensions have become a matter of urgent regional concern, developing out of decades-long ethnic conflict, political unrest, and humanitarian disasters. Since 2023, these tensions have been simmering greatly as the internal conflict in Myanmar, most notably in Rakhine State, has gotten worse. In the case of Bangladesh, the stakes are high-border security risks, the increase in displaced populations, diplomatic challenges, and socio-political pressure.
Coming together simultaneously, with both nations struggling to contain these complex challenges, the development is attracting global attention to the peace and stability in the region.
Historical Context of Bilateral Tensions
The origins of the present crisis lie deep in the region’s colonial and post-colonial history. Myanmar, Burma, has historically grappled with internal ethnicity, especially in the western Rakhine State that borders Bangladesh. Rohingya Muslims have been the minority group involved in this confrontation. The Rohingya are regarded as stateless under the Myanmar citizenship law of 1982; they have been the victims of systematic discrimination and regular military campaigns.
The latest and most intense of them took place in 2017, when a vicious campaign by the Myanmar military, Tatmadaw, displaced more than 700,000 Rohingya across the border into Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar. This exodus formed one of the largest refugee camps in the world and tested the humanitarian capacity of Bangladesh. The situation has not been resolved yet despite multiple attempts at repatriation and international mediation. Myanmar has rejected assurances to take back the Rohingya refugees, who are stateless and reliant on aid, and are still in limbo.
Myanmar Civil War and The Emergence of the Arakan Army
In February 2021, the internal politics of Myanmar experienced a big shakeup as the military couped the democratically elected government. The result has since then seen the country sink into a full-scale civil conflict. The ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the pro-democracy forces have stepped up the struggle against the junta.
One such group that has gathered momentum is the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group. They were initially established to seek more autonomy rights for the Rakhine people, but it has taken advantage of the mayhem to increase their territorial gains. Towards the end of 2024, the AA had seized the majority of Rakhine State, including regions adjacent to the Bangladesh border, which replaced the Myanmar military forces in these regions. Bangladesh has been experiencing both opportunities and risks because of this power shift, which has brought a new non-state actor to its southeastern border.
Recent Development along the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border
The current escalation of the tension is due to the direct spillover of the Myanmar internal conflict onto Bangladeshi soil. Artillery shells, mortars, and stray bullets amid the confrontations between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army have been entering Bangladesh territory since late 2023. There were several reported cases in the border regions, such as Bandarban and Teknaf, where civilians were wounded and houses were destroyed. Landmines along the border have also led to the injury of Bangladeshi nationals, triggering concern about the security of the civilians.
The second important event was the infiltration of the Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) into Bangladesh. Hundreds of BGP officers crossed the border into Bangladesh and were arrested by the Bangladesh forces in early 2024, when the AA began a large offensive in Maungdaw. Most of them were eventually repatriated; however, the incident highlighted the unstable situation in the conflict and the susceptibility of Bangladesh to any instability of its neighbor.
The New Development with the Arakan Army
The Arakan Army has turned into a de facto authority over Rakhine. Realizing this fact, Bangladesh has started low-key, unofficial talks with the group. There have been reports that backchannel communication has taken place to maintain stability along the borders and the avoidance of additional shelling, and also the release of captured Bangladeshi soldiers.
The involvement of the AA has become a matter of official record in Bangladesh, where a National Security Advisor, Dr. Khalilur Rahman, and other officials, such as the Foreign Affairs Adviser, Md. Towhid Hossain has openly admitted that they must continue reaching out to the AA. According to them, the non-state actor is a necessity to the national interests of Bangladesh, judging by the fact that the central Myanmar government no longer has control of the entire border; therefore, border security and Rohingya repatriation are necessary.
Nevertheless, such involvement is not risk-free. The AA is alleged to violate human rights, especially of Rohingya civilians. In mid-2024, Human rights groups documented that AA forces killed hundreds of Rohingya in Buthidaung, by drone and artillery attacks. Such activities put Bangladesh in a difficult situation – any association with the AA has to be balanced with the ethical and diplomatic repercussions of involving itself with an entity that is allegedly involved in war crimes.
Humanitarian Impact and Refugee Crisis
Humanitarian impacts of such tensions are enormous. There are more than one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh living in overcrowded refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar. As fresh violence has erupted in Rakhine, a greater number of Rohingya have tried to cross the border. Bangladesh, in its turn, has adopted a sterner position- its troops have repelled newcomers, arguing that they lack the capacity and are afraid of increasing lawlessness in the camps.
The situation in the camps has been getting worse, and now violence, drug trafficking, and the activities of armed Rohingya groups, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO), are on the rise. In January 2025, Bangladesh security services detained ARSA chief Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, dealt a major setback to militant circuits within the camps. However, the existence of these groups remains a major threat to the security of the camps and the stability of the region.
Diplomatic and Regional Responses
On the diplomatic front, Bangladesh has protested several times to the Myanmar government regarding cross-border shelling and failure to control refugees. There has been little substantive dialogue, though. Myanmar, preoccupied with its internal conflicts, is in a state of diplomatic isolation and has been incapable of, or perhaps unwilling to, address the concerns of Bangladesh.
India and China have taken a reserved stance in the region. India, which faces insurgency issues in the Northeast and has infrastructure stakes in the Kaladan projects, is closely monitoring the situation. China is an old partner of the Myanmar military and has profound interests in Rakhine, especially in the Kyaukphyu port. The territorial gains by the AA are now threatening these investments. Such has been the stake of both powers, though they have been reluctant to intervene or even mediate directly in the bilateral tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
The United States and international bodies like the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have shown concern, especially on the humanitarian consequences. There has been some reported coordination of the intelligence services of Bangladesh and the U.S., and this hints at an increasing level of strategic interest in maintaining regional stability.
Security Measures and Border Management
Bangladesh has strongly enhanced its border security on the ground. Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) has undertaken augmented patrolling and monitoring, especially in the vulnerable sectors. The Army has been carrying out army readiness drills, too, and the Navy has increased patrols of the Naf River, where the maritime clashes and the detention of Bangladeshi fishermen by AA forces have taken place.
Demining of civilian places is also being undertaken, with early warning signs being given to communities living along the borders. Nevertheless, the risk of violence, both unintentional and deliberate, is great. The absence of a proper ceasefire/ceasing or an agreement with the AA makes it difficult to establish peace along the border in a long-term perspective.
The Balancing Act of Bangladesh: Security, Sovereignty and Human Rights
Bangladesh is currently in a harsh balancing game. On the one side, it has to assert its territorial integrity and save its nationals against the consequences of the civil war in Myanmar. On the one hand, there is pressure to comply with international human rights standards, especially regarding the protection of refugees.
Bangladesh is trying to stabilize the situation pragmatically by coming into contact with the AA on an informal basis. There is, however, also the risk of legitimizing a non-state actor that is accused of serious abuses. In addition, the move to reject new refugees has led to criticism by humanitarian organizations claiming that it is leaving the vulnerable groups to die in war-torn regions.
Bangladesh should also take care that its internal stability is not jeopardized. Militant networks present in Rohingya camps, the increase in crime, and political opposition using the refugee issue on the domestic political agenda all present possible challenges to the national unity and security of Dhaka.
Looking Ahead: Possible Scenarios and Strategic Options
In the future, Bangladesh-Myanmar relations will heavily rely on the course of the internal conflict in Myanmar. In case the junta keeps losing its territory, the AA or some other ethnic armed organizations could become the leading forces in western Myanmar. In this instance, possibly amid international supervision, the goal is to stabilize the border and aim at Rohingya repatriation.
At the humanitarian level, the international community urgently needs to help give more aid to refugee camps in Bangladesh. More to the point, alternative repatriation or resettlement frameworks, including possible third countries or UN-controlled safe areas, are to be designed.
Bangladesh also needs to invest in long-term security relations with its neighbors and strategic partners. Sharing of intelligence, combined surveillance, and application of diplomatic pressure in unison on the stakeholders of Myanmar can assist in averting a full-scale crisis in the region. The present conflict is not merely a bilateral issue- It is a regional and international problem that needs to be solved with multilateral and international problem that needs to be solved with multilateral approaches.
Conclusion
The Bangladesh-Myanmar tensions demonstrate a highly sophisticated and developing crisis on the verge of war, and displacement, diplomacy, and defending its borders, but also on how to fulfil its humanitarian obligations without jeopardizing the security of the nation. The danger of failing to do so is becoming increasingly obvious as the Arakan Army gains more territory and the civil conflict in Myanmar shows no signs of stopping.
Bangladesh has been practical and strong in wading through these troubled waters. But the way ahead will be full of delicate diplomacy, prolonged humanitarian assistance, and renewed determination towards peace in the region. The stakes are high not only in the case of Bangladesh and Myanmar but also for the larger stability in South and Southeast Asia.
