By : Simar Kaur, Research Analyst, GSDN
Introduction
The fourth anniversary of Russia’s full military attack on Ukraine, which has escalated into what is perhaps the largest armed international dispute on the European continent since the Second World War, was celebrated on February 24, 2026. As the dispute progresses into its fifth year by July 2026, it becomes necessary to ask what Russia has gained from this prolonged war. Oversimplified claims of territorial expansion and defeat of its enemy do not reflect the complex truth about a war that has become more of a war of attrition. Russia has gained certain, albeit costly, military and territorial achievements in addition to adaptation to the realities of the ongoing conflict, which, however, were paid for with severe humanitarian and economic costs, drastic changes in the security situation, and unclear prospects in foreign relations. This paper examines the overall gains made by Russia during the conflict in the military, territorial, economic, and geopolitical spheres using open-source intelligence as of July 2026.
Military and Territorial Gains: The Battlefield Calculus
In the war theatre, Russia has kept its advantage at a constant but steady pace. With four years of intensive fighting, Russia has been able to seize control of around twenty per cent of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territories, including Crimea, most of the Donbas regions, and a link between these two territories that runs through the Sea of Azov. In April 2026, Russia announced that it had fully taken control of Luhansk, which is part of the two provinces making up the Donbas region, though this claim has been refuted by Ukrainian authorities. The Russian military strategy has developed tremendously over time. With the Russian Army having ditched the fast mechanized advances earlier on in 2022, it has adopted a new strategy that will be more effective for long-term warfare: namely, slow and deliberate advances through infantry and artillery, coupled with drone surveillance and small troop infiltrations. Even though this will lead to a slower territorial advance than before, the strategy is in line with Russia’s strengths in the manufacture of artillery and its firepower reserve. The experts have noted that the Russians are using creeping advances to avoid losing too many people in the war. Nevertheless, there has been an exceptional price paid for these territorial successes. Based on an assessment made by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in January 2026, the number of Russian troops who have been killed during the war stands at an estimated 325,000, while casualties of the Russian troops, which include those who have been wounded or missing in action, stand at 1.2 million. The equipment losses have been equally alarming because the Russians have lost 24,099 vehicles and other equipment for the army, which includes 13,887 tanks and armoured vehicles, 361 planes, and 29 naval ships.
Economic Resilience and Adaptation
Even under the heavy burden of the Western sanctions, the Russian economy proved to be quite resilient, a development that no one would have predicted at the beginning of the war. By July 2026, it will become one of the major features of the ongoing conflict. While it is certainly under strain due to sanctions in the form of a drop in trade turnover and a sharp decline in exports to European countries, the Russian economy has been shifting toward new markets. The weight of the private sector has increased, and there has been economic adaptability despite the turbulent situation. As stated by the Russian expert Aslan Nakhushev, “The life of most Russians is not affected by the combat operations on the front”. However, even though the continuous attack of Ukrainian drones on the refineries and storage facilities, the energy sector has survived the attacks. Though these attacks from Ukraine have managed to disrupt activities and lead to fuel shortages in the region, the sheer size of Russia’s energy network, strategic depth, and industrial capability have helped maintain system integrity. By November 2025, Reuters has found that, even though there have been constant attacks, the processing of Russian oil has been cut by just three per cent. This ability of industries is an advantage for Russia in its own way. It must be admitted that the economic benefits are purely defensive in nature and not expansionary. Russia had to place limitations on the export of fuel, and on the availability of gasoline in some areas. The economy is highly militarized, as military expenses continue to consume an ever-growing proportion of the GDP. Russia is not immune to the economic repercussions of the war; on the contrary, it has succeeded in mitigating them via state measures and resource abundance.
Geopolitical and Security Gains
The most significant achievements for Russia might relate to geopolitics and security. The war has indeed changed the existing security system in Europe, yet it has done so in a way that was not equally negative for the interests of Russia. Both Finland and Sweden, states traditionally not belonging to any alliances, have become members of NATO, which Russia clearly tried to avoid. But the reaction of NATO to the situation is limited because of the internal disagreements and unwillingness to use troops against Russia. At the same time, in 2025, the USA, under the leadership of the Trump administration, wanted to change its attitude to the war, seeing it in a more pragmatic way and urging Kyiv to negotiate. Russia’s engagement with the Global South has become far deeper than before. India and China have kept buying cheaper Russian crude oil, thereby acting as an economic lifeline against the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia. Russia has also been positioning itself as an alternative to Western dominance and reaching out to countries that are concerned about Western dominance. Its association with the BRICS group and its relations with countries such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are some examples of its diplomatic network expanding. Hence, the war has certainly accelerated Russia’s move towards Asia and the Global South. In Russia itself, the war has united people behind the government as well. As per a February 2026 poll conducted by the All-Russian Centre for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), 65% of Russians supported the “special military operation”. This percentage, although less than the record highs witnessed in 2022, still provides enough political stability to the Kremlin to continue its military operations. It has proved to be a win in terms of political resilience because the government was able to co-opt military bloggers, control information, and keep society cohesive.
Human Cost and Strategic Limitations
Despite all these achievements, however, Russia has made a sacrifice that will dictate its future for many years to come. In addition to losses from the fighting, Ukraine’s asymmetrical tactics, especially the strikes with long-range drones, have caused damage to Russia’s infrastructure that is hard to estimate but noticeable. By July 2026, more than 200 oil refinery facilities in Russia had been hit by Ukrainian “influence operations” during the first seven months of the year, which was eleven times the number of attacks for the whole previous year. Transportation facilities, grain export corridors, and ships belonging to the Black Sea Fleet have become targets for frequent attacks. The war has become a “war of mutual exhaustion.” Attrition warfare has entered the stage of reciprocal exhaustion. While Russian troops have gained some territorial success, they have failed to make any breakthrough, with their advance limited to hundreds of meters rather than kilometers. Meanwhile, as Ukrainian forces move farther into Russian territory, it becomes necessary for Moscow to redirect some of its strength from the battlefield back to its own rear areas, a phenomenon that experts describe as a distinctive sign of the current stage of the war. It is not about whether Russia will be able to retain the territory gained, but about its ability to maintain the offensive.
The Prospects for Diplomacy
As of July 2026, attempts at diplomacy to resolve the crisis have been unsuccessful. Several negotiations in Istanbul, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva, among other locations, have been unable to result in a ceasefire. Territorial sovereignty (Russia wants to annex all of Donbas; Ukraine does not want to withdraw unilaterally) and security assurances (Ukraine seeks Western assurances; Russia does not want Western troops near its borders) are still the major issues. US diplomacy has been hampered by the shift in focus to the Persian Gulf region, whereas European diplomacy has been steady. The future direction of the Russian advances is going to be highly contingent upon the resolution of this diplomatic stalemate. Should the current front remain stable, Russia will have achieved a land bridge to Crimea, effective control over parts of Ukrainian soil, and an established buffer zone along its border. On the other hand, should the resilience of Ukraine and its Western supporters continue, Russia’s current gains may not prove sustainable, facing constant erosion. As of July 2026, however, neither scenario seems near fruition.
Conclusion
After four years of fighting, the gains made by Russia must be considered in terms of partiality, costliness, and vulnerability. First, Russia has conquered about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, comprising crucial regions such as Crimea and Donbas. Second, militarily speaking, Russia has been able to adjust its tactics and prove its ability to conduct massive military operations. Thirdly, economically, Russia has endured sanctions and adapted to war. Fourth of all, geopolitically, Russia has adjusted itself toward Asia and gained strong internal support. However, these achievements have been made with an immense cost to both the personnel and equipment, and have failed to result in a strategic success, remaining vulnerable to further resistance by Ukraine and outside pressures. Russia is neither the same country it was in 2021 nor a defeated country some early experts predicted.
