By: Simran Sodhi, Guest Author, GSDN
The world, of late, has been a witness to a whirlwind of meetings and visits as various countries rush to bring about a permanent ceasefire to the Middle East conflict. The recent ‘Islamabad Talks’ failed to deliver a deal that was acceptable to both the United States and Iran. However, reports suggest that back-channel talks are underway and another round of talks in Islamabad might happen soon. Nonetheless, the economic effects of the war, the rise in the price of oil and the disruption in supply chains has most nations worries. From India to Japan to the European Union, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a blow to their economies. The Gulf States face a twin dilemma- economic and political.
As United States President Donald Trump changes his goal-posts frequently with respect to the conflict, the critique of the US has grown sharply. Many world leaders feel this was an avoidable war and blame the US for their economic woes today. But just as many express their frustration with the US, the pivot towards China seems to be growing. Even before this conflict started, China and Russia (two of the world’s biggest power centers today) were seen as more aligned to one another’s interests. It can be argued that this ‘war of choice’ has actually brought them even closer.
April 14 marked a hectic day of diplomacy for China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan all met with the Chinese leadership in Beijing. Many analysts see this as an indication of a subtle shift where many countries are now looking to partner with China which appears a more stable and reliable partner. For China, this is a win-win moment. One: the US with whom China has a competitive relationship is getting its power depleted. Two: China is quietly posturing itself as the reliable and stable global power that respects international law.
China and Russia have both also condemned the US and Israel over their attacks on Iran. Both countries also share close ties with Iran. Iran supplied Russia with the low-cost Shahed drones to use in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These drones have proved highly effective for Russia. China meanwhile is a big importer of Iranian oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz effects its economy directly. According to reports in The New York Times China called Tehran and used its influence to get Iran to agree to a two-week ceasefire. Pakistan, which emerged as the mediator between the US and Iran, is a close ally of China.
The visit of Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, to China and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was another significant development. Xi in his remarks emphasised the importance of national sovereignty, the international rule of law and the central role played by the United Nations. China is also today the UAE’s biggest trading partner and one of the main customers for its oil. Trade between the two countries is projected to approach US$1 trillion in 2026, according to official figures. Bloomberg estimates that Chinese investment amounts to nearly US$270 billion in projects across the Middle East, a large proportion of which is in the UAE.
The visit of the Spanish PM Sanchez to China made news for many reasons. This was Sanchez’s fourth visit to China in four years, highlighting the growing synergy between the two. Sanchez has also been critical of the US role in the Middle East and during this visit, he called upon China to play a more active role in the region. The Spanish government has opposed military action in the Middle East, which has led to tensions with the US. Spain also refused to allow the use of its military bases for US strikes against Iran, which further angered President Trump. The Spanish leader has called for greater co operation between China and the European Union.
Looking at the spate of high-profile diplomatic visits to Beijing in the light of the Middle East conflict, it would be a fair assessment to make that many nations are re-thinking their ties with the US and China. Under President Trump, the US has emerged as more of a disruptor of the international order. China, on the contrary, despite the questions over its trade and human rights issues, has come across as a more responsible global actor. As of now these are subtle movements. China gains as the US loses. Next month, Beijing is likely to play host to US President too. But in what appears to be a fragile world order today, the Chinese are projecting an image of strength and allies seem to be increasing. Under President Trump, the US is in a diplomatic tailspin.
About the Author
Simran Sodhi is Director-India, TRENDS (Abu Dhabi Media Research & Advisory). In a journalistic career spanning over two decades, she has written for a number of national and international publications. She has also reported from various corners of the world like Tokyo, Beijing, Pakistan and Bhutan, among others. She tweets at @Simransodhi9
