By: Meghna Dasgupta, Research Analyst, GSDN
The recent appointment of Mark Rutte, the ex-Dutch prime minister as the 14th Secretary-General of NATO on October 01, 2024 is the addition of a highly skilled political figure to one of the most complex organisations in global politics. Rutte will face a complex set of challenges as he takes on this new responsibility. He is known to be strong supporter of Ukraine, and is known to have a legacy of successful consensus-building. Of course, the main strategic task of NATO, collective defense is under significant pressure from various geopolitical processes internal disagreements within the member states. From Donald Trump’s coming back to power in America to Europe’s negligence on defence expenditure; much will rely on Rutte’s leadership to cement the future stability of NATO.
One of the major tests ahead of Rutte is going to be his dealings with Donald Trump as the 47th President of USA. Donal Trump has previously questioned NATO’s relevance to American interests, and he has openly said that he is sceptical of the organisation. Past criticisms of NATO from Trump have been that the US provided more than other member countries, with hints of discouraging the US from being part of NATO. This could bring several immediate questions for Rutte, such as further backing for Ukraine, the future enlargement of NATO, and the USA’s attitude to European security.
Of course, Trump’s policy towards Ukraine can become a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance and harm the long-term goals for attaining a stable, unified, and peaceful Europe. He has also suggested during the campaign that he will reduce the USA’s aid to Ukraine, which will be inoperative for NATO, while it is trying to enlist Ukraine and support Ukraine’s sovereignty. The United States is the largest donor in Ukraine’s fight against Russia, supplying critical arms and assistance that other NATO partner cannot supply at this time. If this support weakens it could harm Ukraine’s defense and discourage other NATO members to contribute their resources thus create a division in NATO alliance.
With the arrival of another harsh winter, Russia is continuing its brutal attacks on Ukraine, particularly its energy infrastructure. This plan that was also used during the winter of 2022-2023 targets to decrease Ukraine’s capability by paralyzing the electricity and other critical services. NATO, therefore, under leadership of Rutte will be focusing on strengthening the air defense systems that can help repel targets on Ukrainian infrastructure. The previous secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, had emphasized the importance of air defence in protecting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Unfortunately, Europe has a small stockpile of such air defence currently, and a few NATO supporters that are relatively close to Russia are not generous in handing over their defense due to increasing threats.
This challenge highlights that there is an immediate need for NATO to reinforce and improve its defense inventory. Even the U.S., one of the most active members of support, experiences delays when it comes to Congress allocating more money and arms for Ukraine. Rutte will need to make sure that NATO partners join force to get the job done and to provide all the required support that Ukraine needs in terms of help for reconstruction of the damaged infrastructure. A significant challenge for Rutte will be money. For many years, he was considered to be leader of the ‘frugal’ faction. Thus, it will be a challenge for him to argue that countries have to increase their defence expenditure.
NATO’s collective defence framework is based on equitable contributions, that NATO members are expected to contribute, 2% of GDP on defense. However, even today, several significant NATO members do not meet this specified level. 23 out of the 32 countries are contributing 2% of their GDP on defence. Other countries that spend below the target are those in the Southern Europe such as Italy, Spain and Portugal. Another NATO member not to meet the threshold is the founding member Canada, who has spent 1.37% of its GDP for defense.
The paradox in defence spending poses several risks to democracies and more importantly challenges the stability of NATO. Some members cannot or will not pay their fair share and, this has been a point of conflict between the member states, particularly those in Eastern Europe who feel threatened by Russia’s ongoing aggression. It also provides NATO-critics, like POTUS-elect Trump, with a valid point to demand American spending cuts on the alliance.
For Rutte, this will be a question that requires gentle persistence on the one hand and some essentialist understanding on the other. Encouraging underperforming countries to increase their defence expenditure, will need diplomatic pressure, while being sensitive to their economic concerns.
One of the longstanding problems within NATO has been the complaint of Eastern European member states of their limited representation at the leadership roles of NATO. Though these countries, especially those bordering Russia has been very vocal against the Russian aggression, these countries feel that they do not contribute much in the organization’s decision-making system. To make matters worse, the Eastern flank was further disappointed when Rutte, a Western European was appointed as the Secretary-General.
This tension demonstrates a dichotomy between some of NATO’s western members who prefer stability and dialogue, while the Eastern countries who, feeling threatened by Russia, prefer a more assertive approach. This division is not only rhetorical since it impacts the allocation of resources, deployment strategies, and the prioritization of NATO’s security objectives.
Rutte will also soon have to appoint a deputy secretary-general. Picking a member from an Eastern European state could therefore go a long way towards addressing some of the dissatisfaction and show that NATO is serious about a broader representation of leadership. Moreover, deepening cooperation with the Eastern European partners will become crucial for Rutte as these states have a clear interest in enhancing the NATO’s defence capabilities against Russia.
In addition to transatlantic conflicts, NATO has internal threats because of growing authoritarian nationalism throughout Europe. In Europe, Pro-Russian and Anti-NATO sentiments have become quite prominent in the recent years. For instance, in France the far-right National Rally party has seen a positive change, in Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban has openly shown his support to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
These parties challenge the stability and integrity of NATO because of their narrative, which might provoke criticism of the alliance and questions NATO’s stance towards Russia. Rutte himself is no stranger to this phenomenon, as he has seen the rise of Geert Wilders Party for Freedom in Netherlands which has shown admiration for both Trump and Putin. This political reality poses a specific difficulty for Rutte, because, on the one hand, he will have to balance the interests of NATO member countries, and on the other, take a clear stance against authoritarian regimes.
Some of the difficulties that Rutte will encounter are; Rutte will have to help NATO regains its strategic direction amid the influence of the far-right political parties. This might involve advocating for greater transparency, ensuring that NATO policies are communicated effectively to the public, and working closely with governments to address domestic concerns without compromising the alliance’s core values.
Conclusion
The Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is NATO Secretary-General at a time when the organisation is challenged by complex external threats and internal discord. The return of Trump may weaken US support, which in turn undermines NATO, especially when Russia’s aggression against Ukraine demands NATO support and coordination Internally, the disagreement between the countries of Eastern and Western Europe, and the rise NATO-sceptic political parties may disturb the unity of the alliance.
To overcome these challenges, Rutte has to use his skills, namely, the ability to reach consensus and commitment to NATO’s charter. This will be critical in strengthening the unity of NATO, reminding members to make equitable contributions and solve security concerns of allies in Eastern front. As NATO faces a period of uncertainty, Rutte’s strategic decisions and diplomatic acumen will play a vital role in ensuring the alliance remains a robust force for peace and stability in an increasingly polarized world.
