By: Kashif Anwar, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

In world politics, over centuries many countries have played a pivotal role from being a major to minor player in geopolitics, which has impacted and transformed the world we know today. As during the Cold War period, the US and former Soviet Union played a major role and China and European nations like the UK, France and Germany have played minor role. However, the role, place and contribution of Italy in world’s history and to global geopolitics can’t be ignored as they are documented and acknowledged. Today, Italy finds itself at the centre of geopolitics at the time when competition between the US and China has impacted world geopolitics and geoeconomics. As Italy holds the G7 chair and could use its position to become a linchpin to connect the free and open societies and economies of the Mediterranean countries and Indo-Pacific region. In coming times, Italy’s role and global position will be looked upon especially after exiting from China’s BRI which has changed Italy’s global outlook and the steps taken since made Rome a centre of attraction in the global geopolitics.

Italy’s role in the global geopolitics: From Europe to the Indo-Pacific Region

In a democratic nation having a secure government not only allows them to pass and implement important bills for the people ensuring and reflecting equity and fairness in their governance. On the other hand, such a stability allows such government to have a firm approach and push forward its foreign policy and the leadership’s goal, aim and vision for the country and towards regional and global geopolitics. Such a situation is visible in the case of Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government, as Italy is witnessing political stability after a long time, though country’s economic prospect remains weak. As political stability at home allows the government to translate their leadership abroad as witnessed in the case of Ukraine, securing Mediterranean and promote infrastructure development which is being projected by the Meloni’s government.

Meloni’s policies have helped Italy to become a vital link for the EU and for NATO in the Mediterranean region – a weak portion of NATO’s operation area – to deter any Russian moves and to secure the region. On the other hand, Italy is able to perform a balancing act to have good relations with the US and China which continues despite differences with the US on many domestic policies of the Meloni’s government and continuation of ties with China after exiting from the BRI. With Italy holding chair of the 2024 G7 has allowed Italy to garner support from the West for the IMEC infrastructure projects and to play an important link and become a key partner for the Asia-European economic corridor. On the other hand, the recent visit by Italy’s PM Meloni to China on July 28, 2024, focussed on strengthening of economic and commercial relations in a post-BRI breakup era to ensure global geopolitics doesn’t jeopardise the Sino-Italy trade relationship.

While PM Meloni’s visit to China was planned to coincide with the 700^th death anniversary of Marco Polo to highlight Italy’s emphasis in ensuring the historical connection and bridges are secured and to rebuild Italy and China trade relationships. In the context of Europe, to mend fences with the European Union and reduce PM Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party Euroskeptic approach, the nomination of Raffaele Fitto by the Italy government as one of 27 Commissioners of the EU government for the next five years is seen as a constructive approach. Fitto being a pragmatist, diplomatic and politically well attuned, his selection will rebuild the bridge with Brussels especially after PM Meloni’s refusal to support Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as the European Commission Chief.

Such developments from the Meloni’s government are driven to ensure Italy remains important in the global geopolitics and its domestic interests aren’t impacted by any ongoing geopolitics or issue or competition between the US and China. As great power politics between the US and China has impacted many sectors and aspects of geopolitics has put other countries in a difficult situation and Italy is one of them to face such situation. Competition between the US and China in the infrastructure, military and outer space power, economics, supply chain and advanced technologies to name a few have put many nations in a tight situation.

To address such situation, PM Meloni policies especially the foreign policy has been equated as Chess Queen’s Gambit move. As such strategy in chess involves various interlinked moves if executed correctly would yield great result. Such aspect is witnessed on various occasions as the Italy government continues to extend cooperation with China emphasising relevance of the Italy-China economic relations in a post-BRI breakup. Further, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict – to support the Ukraine cause – Italy has objected to deploying NATO troops in Ukraine and restricted Kyiv to use Italy’s weapons for defensive purpose and not inside Russia as it will add fuel to the fire. Such approach towards China and Russia has shown Italy prefers global peace and wants its domestic economic demands – commercial and infrastructure – to be secured. As the growing US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific region has spiralled to other regions of the world and has become a concerning issue for many nations to secure their national interests.

PM Meloni visit to China recently could be seen as Italy going soft on China and such Italy’s approach would project the latest sign of growing cracks in the EU’s hard-line approach towards China. As Europe’s dependence on cheap Russian oil and gas has made them addicted which has proved costly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To protect Europe’s interest and de-risk from China, European Commission President Ursula has transformed her views into actions and imposed high tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and to stop sale of semiconductors machinery to China. As such a decision was taken to ensure the EU doesn’t repeat the same mistake, however, de-risking and the crackdown on China caused difference among the EU members pushing the EU to open talks with China.

In case of Italy, as Rome’s hard-line approach has gone mild under the PM Meloni government, exiting BRI and blocking a Chinese state-owned company to take control of Italian tyre maker Pirelli are few exceptions. Italy is following the footstep of Germany and Hungary to promote cooperation with China and has ensured such a cooperation remains economic in nature and opposed China supporting Russia’s war efforts and China’s military actions in the Indo-Pacific region. However, in the context of Indo-Pacific region, Italy’s approach is visible by participating in the Pitch Black 2024 exercise for the first time on August 2, 2024, highlighting Italy is focussing and aligning its interest with other participating members’ interest in the region. The significant presence of Italy – an aircraft carrier Cavour and carrier strike group –in the exercise illustrate Italy’s activism is growing in the Indo-Pacific region and to ensure they address their concerns from increasing Chinese activities in the region.

The presence of Italian Navy in a distant sea confirms a new era for Naval diplomacy for the Navy and ensuring their presence in maritime space in the Indo-Pacific region to secure their interests and ensure freedom of navigation like in the South China Sea region. Developments like China setting up a military base in Subi Reef which includes a large deep-water shelter port and within the 12-nautical miles of Pag-asa Island of the Philippines have alarmed the US and the Philippines. As Italy is taking a cooperative approach with group of ally countries like Australia and Japan against Chinese maritime hegemonic claims in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea region and seen during Rising Sun 2024 exercise (August 06-08, 2024) at Misawa Base in Japan. Such an approach by Italy as part of their operation the ‘Indopacific Jump 2024’ which began on June 30^th and covered around 13,000 km. Under the operation, Italy’s Aeronautica Militare (Italy Air Force) made stopovers at Qatar, Maldives, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and ended in Japan to project Italy’s prowess and protect Italy’s interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

As Italy has a strategy towards European geopolitics reflected by their Mediterranean focussed foreign policy also known as Mediterraneo Allargato which extends to the Indian Ocean region and Euroskeptic approach. In case of Indo-Pacific, Italy has substantial relations and interests in the region and yet to have an official Indo-Pacific strategy. The recent actions by Italy, project that the country is on the right path to have such strategy to secure their economic and strategic interest in the region. Although, Italy has shifted its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region in the last 15 years and has become more decidedly in the last five years to secure their growing trade relations in the region which has witnessed a growth of 16% in the last ten years. With Italy joining NATO and other European countries Indo-Pacific missions to ensure freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region in last few years, current Italy activism in the region has ensured Italy a regular player in the region.

Conclusion

As Italy holds the 2024 G7 Presidency which gives Italy a scope to address its concerns and play a vital part to secure peace, stability and freedom of navigation from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. The relations Italy has with the US, China, Russia and the EU has taken a hit due to the Russian and Chinese activities in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific region respectively. Balancing act from Italy is being projected by the PM Meloni government to ensure the developments in Ukraine and South China Sea region cause further turmoil and disrupting the global economy. As PM Meloni argues China could play or act as a key player to meditate between Russia and Ukraine and Italy playing an important role to improve China’s ties with the EU and ensuring a balanced trade relationship. However, a growing difference between China and the EU and the worsening of Russia-Ukraine conflict due to continuous West support of Ukraine with key player involved in the conflict focusing on securing their vested interests rather peace and order in Ukraine. Such occurrence will continue to act as hurdle in Italy’s global outreach and ensure peace and stability from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region.