By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
The 1975 Hindi-movie Sholay which starred two Indian superstars Amitabh Bachchan and Dharmendra was based on everlasting friendship between the two, and is till date referred to as the finest movie ever made in India.
Since 1867 after the British North America Act created the Dominion of Canada that saw the emergence of Canada as an independent nation, the relations between USA & Canada have been typical of the close friendship that the movie Sholay portrays. However, all changed on December 18, 2024 when Donald Trump, the then President-elect of the USA spoke of incorporating Canada as the USA’s 51st state. After Donald Trump’s inauguration as the USA’s 47th President on January 20, 2025, on multiple occasions has the American President reiterated his desire of seeing Canada as part of the USA. The relations between Canada and the USA have been on a downhill ever since.
Relations between the USA and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the 32-nation military alliance too have been on the rocks after Donald Trump’s ascendancy to power. With the USA asking NATO members to step up defence spending to 5% of the GDP to Donald Trump casting doubts on NATO solidarity on March 07, 2025 including threats of the USA abandoning commitments to the alliance, clearly didn’t have the NATO members reassured.
The Great American Pushback didn’t exactly begin with Donald Trump’s return to the US Presidency after a four-year period. China’s emergence as the world’s third biggest economy in 2007 was the year when The Great American Pushback had first started which gained intensity after China became the world’s second biggest economy in 2010.
USA’s three blunders have catapulted China to the powerful position it is in today – US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China from February 21-28, 1972 culminating in formal diplomatic relations between the two superpowers on January 01, 1979, President Barack Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy announced on December 21, 2011 and Donald Trump’s policies after his return to the American Presidency on January 20, 2025.
The USA’s first blunder of President Richard Nixon’s visit to China from February 21-28, 1972 culminating in formal diplomatic relations between the two superpowers on January 01, 1979 saw the emergence of China as a manufacturing hub as the USA started procuring manufactured goods from China in large magnitudes. Soon China became the world’s manufacturing hub with 36.7% of the global manufacturing being done on the Chinese soil. This brought in financial strength that the Chinese so badly had wanted. Monetary power saw the military strength of China increase at a breakneck speed, with China emerging as the undisputed leader in 57 of the 64 critical technologies in the world.
America’s second blunder saw the US President Barack Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy announced on December 21, 2011 which resulted in bulk of the US military in the Middle East being moved to the Indo-Pacific Region to counter the growing aggressiveness of China.
Though in the intervening period of 1979 to 2011, there occurred an occasion which led to the turbulence between China and the USA known as The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that lasted from July 21, 1995 to March 23, 1996 which was a military confrontation between China and Taiwan. It entailed the USA getting embroiled in. Clearly, the USA didn’t pretty much not learn a lesson of China’s military designs in annexing Taiwan and continued business as usual with China. China’s economic and military might kept on steadily increasing after The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.
And the USA’s third blunder proved to be Donald Trump’s policies after his return to the American Presidency on January 20, 2025. Be it Donald Trump declaring Canada as the USA’s 51st state or riling the NATO alliance or the tariff war that was unleashed on the world on April 09, 2025. The Great American Pushback peaked in 2025.
After China became the world’s second biggest economy in 2007, as it started flexing its muscles militarily, The Great American Pushback was off the block. When Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008, the Americans were found wanting as China stood rock-solid behind Russia. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the Americans were found wanting yet again.
The US led-Multi Coalition Force in Afghanistan had started facing serious challenges soon after they were inducted in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Eight years later, President Barack Obama announced an additional 17,000 troops to be deployed in Afghanistan to the existing 37,000. The top US military commander in Afghanistan was changed on May 11, 2009. Finally, the US had to beat a hasty retreat at midnight of August 15, 2021 leaving the Afghanis in lurch.
The Americans failed to capitalise on Arab Spring that spread across much of the Arab world that started in Tunisia in January 2011 and soon spread to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman and Sudan. With the notable exception of Jordan, the American gains in the other 12 nations that witnessed Arab Spring were insignificant.
As the Arab Spring was weakening by end-2011, President Barack Obama announced the East Asia Strategy also known as Pivot to Asia on December 21, 2011 under which bulk of the American troops stationed in the Middle East were moved to the Indo-Pacific Region to counter the growing aggressiveness of China. The vacuum that was created in the Middle East as a result of this policy, saw Russia & China making strong gains in the Middle East specially amongst the Arab nations.
It was around this period that Hamas which had taken power in the Gaza Strip on June 14, 2007 started being supported clandestinely by China. This started increasing the power of Hamas substantially and finally when Hamas struck on Israel on October 07, 2023, Israel and in turn the USA, were found wanting as the main benefactor of Israel is the USA. The Israel-Hamas War continues 22 months on.
Iran which has been under the US-led economic sanctions since the last 38 years won the pyrrhic victory over Israel in the 12-day war that lasted from June 13-25, 2025. This was another blow to the global dominance that the USA once enjoyed.
On the Russia-Ukraine War front too, that started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 the USA hasn’t been able to ensure Ukraine’s victory with the Russians occupying 20% of the Ukrainian territory as on date. Ukraine’s repeated pleas for American troops has had no effect and Ukraine continues to be hammered militarily by Russia.
And finally, President Donald Trump’s Trade War announced on April 09, 2025 just 79 days into his second Presidency, proved to be the bete noire for whatever was left of the American credibility. The world soon lost count of the Tariffs that Donald Trump was unleashing every other day and countries like China, Brazil etc were clearly undeterred. The Great American Pushback was reaching greater proportions.
India which has gravitated towards the USA after the announcement of the Pivot to Asia policy in 2011, too was not spared by Donald Trump’s jibes. 26 times the American President has taken credit for the ceasefire announced after the 88-hour India-Pakistan Conflict 2025, despite India categorically stating that no third country played any role in the ceasefire with Pakistan after the short but intense military confrontation in May 2025.
Rubbing salt further, Donald Trump invited the Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to lunch in the White House in June 2025. Not to forget, the American President praising Pakistan in handing over a dreaded terrorist to the USA, in his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025. And on July 26, 2025 the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, thanked Ishaq Dar, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan for “Pakistan’s partnership in countering terrorism and preserving regional stability”. Though it well known globally that Pakistan is the epicentre of terrorism and the pivotal factor for South Asia’s regional stability.
Overwhelming majority of the Global South that comprises 134 nations out of the 195 nations that exist in the world today are in strong Chinese & Russian grip. The European Union including the Western Europe countries are slowly tilting towards China.
Australia and Japan who constitute the four-nation Quad alliance along with the USA and India are gravitating towards China. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s statement “Engaging with China is in our interest to build a stable & secure region” on July 13, 2025 during his six-day visit to China clearly shows the Australian change in stance towards China, a far cry from 2020 when Australia had called for an international inquiry to probe China’s involvement in the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Another Quad alliance member Japan and a long-term ally of the US in the North East, South Korea are in fast-paced talks since July 01, 2025 for trilateral cooperation with China amid the US Tariff War unleashed by President Donal Trump in a proactive effort to safeguard regional stability and economic resilience.
Thus, The Great American Pushback is now global from Australia to South America, from Western Europe to Africa.
Lessons for Nations at War Risk
On January 17, 2024 Grant Shapps, the British Defence Secretary warned of multiple war theatres opening up in the next five years which would involve Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. How prophetic his words have turned out to be with the recently concluded Israel-Iran War and the US-Iran military strikes. And this year, on May 31, 2025, Pete Hegseth, the US Defence Secretary warned that China is actively training to invade Taiwan.
Clearly, the era of the 21st Century wars has already started with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas War. And is set to intensify in the coming years. The nations at war risk and dependant on the USA need to learn from The Great American Pushback.
After 1979 war with Vietnam in which China was defeated, China focussed on its economic and military preparedness as the USA was embroiled in every war and conflict the world over. Since the USA gained independence on July 04, 1776, till date it has taken part in 204 wars and conflict in the world, directly or indirectly.
China has not taken part in any war or conflict in the world directly or indirectly since its defeat to Vietnam in 1979, baring two instances.
One, the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that lasted from July 21, 1995 to March 23, 1996, though in this military stand-off, no life was lost. Two, the Galwan Valley Clash on June 15, 2020 with India which has been covered in detail by the author.
The famous quote “Choose your battles wisely because if you fight them all, you’ll be too tired to win the really important ones” is an apt reflection on China and the USA with a great lesson to the nations at a war risk.
It is very important that nations at war risk develop defence technologies domestically. For, during wars there is no guarantee of any nation supplying the weapon systems. A strong Military Industrial Complex based on the rock-solid foundation of domestic defence technologies will rule out dependency on foreign suppliers. Be it the USA, Russia, China or Isreal, all have a robust Military Industrial Complex pivoting on domestic defence technology bedrock.
Ukraine finds itself in a tight-spot as the American defence supplies are not forthcoming at the rate Ukraine requires and the biggest handicap of Ukraine is the absence of a Military Industrial Complex for this prolonged war.
Sample this. During the three-day period July 07-09, 2025, Russia launched more than 1300 missiles and drones at Ukraine. The USA has an annual production rate of 500 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles per year. Two such missiles are required by Ukraine to neutralise one incoming Russian projectile. Clearly, the mathematics don’t add up. Cost wise, one Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles costs US$ 7 million to manufacture. The USA can’t guarantee Ukraine supply of such expensive defence systems for a prolonged period.
Take another case of M1A2 Abrams tanks. Annually, 30 tanks are produced in the USA. Russia by contrast, produces 300 T-90 tanks every year. Even if the USA want to help Ukraine with more armour, it has to first look after its domestic defence requirements. Thus, having minimal scope to help Ukraine in this issue.
Countries at war risk should refrain from crying hoarse repeatedly about conspiracy theories as it is a distraction from economic & military aims and objectives. It is a well-known fact that as in a person’s professional life, rarely does anyone help. Similarly, as a nation progresses very few nations have a helping attitude. Nations should focus on the future goals. Another point needs mentioning is that nations at war risk should learn from history and not remain stuck-up in History, and prepare for the future keeping in mind the lessons learnt.
And finally, the nations at war risk should not count for help on the alliances they are in. In the present era, talks and treaties have lost relevance. It is only hard power that will matter. The USA hasn’t proved to be trusted ally in the last two decades. The present American geopolitics can be easily summarised in one word “Transactional”.
The quote “Transactional leaders tend to look at the world through a lens of punishment, rewards, and or exchange for motivation. While transformational leaders focus on listening, collaboration, and leading by example” holds great weightage for the USA as the era of modern wars has already begun. For long, the USA had been regarded as the bulwark of democracy but since 2007, has been abjuring from this great responsibility that had become synonymous with America.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is the Founder-Editor, Global Strategic & Defence News and has authored the book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24.
