By: Mahima Sharma, Research Analyst, GSDN
In recent years, China has been rapidly expanding its military power and influence, with significant implications for global security. One of the most notable developments in this regard is China’s establishment of overseas military bases, which has raised concerns among policymakers and analysts around the world. This article will examine the implications of China’s overseas military bases, with a focus on their geopolitical significance, the challenges they pose to regional and global stability, and the potential for conflict.
China’s growing military power is well-documented, with the country investing heavily in modernizing its armed forces and expanding its military capabilities. This includes the development of advanced weapon systems, the expansion of its navy, and the establishment of overseas military bases. These bases, which are located in strategic regions around the world, are intended to support China’s military operations and enhance its ability to project power globally.
The significance of China’s overseas military bases cannot be overstated. These bases are not just military outposts, but also symbols of China’s growing influence and power. They represent a new phase in China’s military diplomacy, as the country seeks to establish itself as a global military power. Moreover, these bases are part of China’s broader strategy of expanding its economic and political influence around the world, particularly in regions where it has significant economic interests.
China’s quest for overseas military bases is a significant development in the country’s military diplomacy and strategic posture. Historically, China has been cautious about establishing military bases abroad, preferring instead to maintain a low military profile and avoid entangling alliances. However, in recent years, China has been more assertive in its pursuit of overseas military presence, driven by its growing economic and strategic interests around the world.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project spanning several continents, has played a significant role in China’s quest for overseas military bases. Through the BRI, China has established partnerships with countries along the proposed routes, providing them with infrastructure development and investment in exchange for access to their markets and resources. These partnerships have also provided China with opportunities to establish military bases and access agreements, allowing it to protect its interests and project power in key regions.
China’s strategic infrastructure projects, such as ports, railways, and highways, have also played a crucial role in its quest for overseas military bases. These projects have provided China with access to strategic locations and resources, allowing it to project power and protect its interests in key regions. For example, China’s establishment of its first official overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017 has set the precedent for PLA units to be permanently stationed abroad, providing China with a strategic foothold in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean.
China’s quest for overseas military bases has significant implications for global security and stability. The potential for conflict and military escalation is a significant concern, particularly in regions where China’s interests intersect with those of other powers. The establishment of military bases and access agreements also has implications for regional security dynamics, potentially altering the balance of power and creating new security challenges.
China’s military posture has been evolving in recent years, with a growing focus on expeditionary operations and the protection of its expanding interests overseas. While China has not yet established formal military alliances or full-fledged bases, it has been developing partnerships that allow it access to strategic locations and resources. These partnerships, often established under the Belt and Road Initiative, have provided China with opportunities to establish military bases and access agreements, allowing it to protect its interests and project power in key regions.
China’s continental geography has a significant impact on its military posture, as it shares long land boundaries with many powerful neighbours and must prioritize its periphery as a first-order national security theatre. This means that China’s military resources and strategic attention are primarily focused on its immediate surroundings, rather than on distant regions. However, China has been expanding its military presence overseas, particularly in regions where it has significant economic and strategic interests.
China’s “encirclement” by the U.S. and its allies across Asia, Oceania, and Europe also poses a challenge to its military posture. This is especially acute in maritime East Asia, where China has strategic threat perceptions and must prioritize its immediate littoral areas. The utility of bases far out of the likely theatre of operations is much diminished for China, as it faces a permanent reality of encirclement by the U.S. and its allies.
Technology also plays a significant role in shaping China’s approach to overseas military bases. The widespread diffusion of precision strike technologies makes all prospective Chinese bases soft targets, rendering the traditional method of foreign basing less strategically viable for China in the 21st century. Building dedicated basing infrastructure may yield greater liabilities than assets in high-end conflict, a problem that the U.S. joint force is also contending with as it seeks to blunt China’s threat to its many fixed positions across the Indo-Pacific.
China’s military diplomacy and overseas security activities are a significant aspect of the country’s foreign policy, aimed at furthering its national and military strategic objectives and goals. China’s military diplomacy includes high-level visits and professional military exchanges with counterparts overseas, participation in bilateral and multilateral exercises with partners outside the Indo-Pacific region, maritime patrols and port visits around the world, and provision of nontraditional security services. China’s military diplomacy is also used to signal displeasure with a country’s policies or actions toward China, through cancelling high-level engagements, dialogues, and exercises.
Chinese forces may utilize commercial port terminals leased to Chinese firms in a conflict scenario, as prescribed in China’s domestic law and policy. However, politically, host governments will generally have discretion to determine the type and degree of PLA use of any facility on its territory. The potential for Chinese forces to utilize commercial port terminals in a conflict scenario raises important questions about PRC external strategy, and requires that we take stock of China’s historically low levels of interest in engaging directly in militarized conflicts.
The political considerations for China’s military presence abroad include the need to safeguard the PRC’s sovereignty, security, and development interests; strengthen the military; and redefine the global community. China’s military diplomacy and overseas security activities are aimed at making the world safe for autocracy and shaping the perception of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) abroad. The CCP takes a much more expansive view of security, particularly from the information standpoint, than does the United States.
China’s overseas military bases have significant implications for global security and stability. The establishment of these bases represents a shift in China’s military posture, signalling its growing influence and power projection capabilities on a global scale. This expansion raises concerns about the potential for conflict and the need for diplomacy to manage tensions effectively.
The impact on global security and stability stems from the potential for increased military presence in strategic regions, which could alter the balance of power and create new security challenges. The presence of Chinese military forces in key locations around the world raises questions about how this will influence regional dynamics and the response of other major powers.
The potential for conflict is a significant concern, particularly in regions where China’s interests intersect with those of other countries. The establishment of overseas military bases can heighten tensions and increase the risk of miscalculations or misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. Diplomacy plays a crucial role in mitigating these risks and ensuring that disputes are resolved peacefully.
The role of the international community in addressing the implications of China’s overseas military bases is essential. Close monitoring, dialogue, and cooperation among nations are crucial to prevent misunderstandings and promote stability. Multilateral efforts to engage with China on military transparency, confidence-building measures, and conflict prevention can help manage potential conflicts and maintain global security.
In conclusion, the impact of China’s overseas military bases on global security and stability is significant, with the potential for conflict and the need for diplomacy to manage tensions effectively. The potential for Chinese forces to utilize commercial port terminals in a conflict scenario raises important questions about PRC external strategy, requiring careful management and diplomacy to prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to conflict. Through vigilance, dialogue, and cooperation, we can ensure that China’s expanding military footprint contributes positively to global security and stability, promoting peace and prosperity for all.
