By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN
Russia is the largest nuclear weapons state, and a depository state of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under which a safeguards agreement has been in force since 1985. The Additional Protocol was ratified in 2007. However, Russia takes the view that voluntary application of IAEA safeguards is not meaningful for a nuclear weapons state and so they are not generally applied. Russia has the highest number of Weapon of Mass Destruction, making Russia one of the largest threat in the world when they come in to a war scenario. Russia did not attend the first meeting of states parties to the TPNW, held in Vienna in June 2022, putting Russia under the suspicion for the nuclear development.
History
The nuclear program of Russia started on August 1949, when the Soviet Union exploded its first nuclear weapon in Kazakhstan. After that U.S. and Russia raced to compete for the missiles testing and space technology for a decade. In 1962, Cuban Missile Crisis happened, which is considered as the Crisis that brought world closest to a nuclear war. Just after a year, in 1963, ‘Limited Test Ban Treaty’ was established in which a high-speed “hotline” connecting the leaders of the Soviet and U.S. governments established in order to prevent any future nuclear war.
The pursuit of nuclear weapons by more states lead to calls for an international framework to halt proliferation. After multiple drafts, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States signed the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) on July 1, 1968, agreeing to pursue general disarmament. China and France did not join until 1992. And all the other countries which became nuclear power after U.S. and Russia, remained outside of the treaty, including India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and South Sudan.
Russia’s Nuclear Technology
Russia is moving steadily forward with plans for an expanded role of nuclear energy, including development of new reactor technology. It is committed to closing the fuel cycle, and sees fast reactors as key to this. Rosenergoatom is the only Russian utility operating nuclear power plants. It was established in 1992 and was reconstituted as a utility in 2001, as a division of Rosatom. Russia uses about 5500 tonnes of natural uranium per year. Russia’s last plutonium production reactor started up in 1964 and was finally closed down in 2010. Russia is a world leader in fast neutron reactor technology and is consolidating this through its Proryv (‘Breakthrough’) project.
Russia’s first nuclear power plant, and the first in the world to produce electricity in 1954, was the 5 MWe Obninsk reactor. Russia has 36 of total reactors capable of producing 26,802 MWe, from which, 6 reactors are under construction which will be making 3,901 MWe, and 11 reactors are shutdown which used to making 4,893 MWe. Total consumption of electricity in Russia is around 808 TWh, Nuclear energy contributes around 216 TWh which make 19% of the countries requirement.
Exports of nuclear goods and services are a major Russian policy and economic objective. Russia is currently involved in the construction of about 20 reactors abroad. Russia is exporting plants to meet world energy demand for some 300 GWe of new nuclear capacity before 2030. Early in 2016 Rosatom said that Russia’s GDP gained three roubles for every one rouble invested in building nuclear power plants domestically, as well as enhanced “socio-economic development of the country as a whole.”
Rosatom made plans to build around 8 floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) by 2015. Rosatom signed the contract in 2008 and started the construction in 2009. The KLT-40S is a version of the icebreaker reactor for floating nuclear power plants which runs on low-enriched uranium (<20%) and hence has a bigger core and shorter refuelling interval of 3-4.5 years and with the Operational lifetime of 40 years. Although, the construction was delayed multiple times due to military, political and economic problems. Fuel loading was completed in October 2018, with startup in December 2019, and commercial operation in May 2020.
Many countries came forward to sign a contract with Russia. For instance, China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA) from China signed a contract for FNPP with Rosatom in 2014, although it was not followed through completely. Similarly, in 2015 Indonesia’s BATAN signed an agreement with Rosatom on construction of FNPPs, but nothing further has been announced. Also, in 2024, the Republic of Guinea signed an MOU with Russia for the development of Floating Power Plant to supply electricity in the African country.
Missiles
Russia possesses approximately 5,580 nuclear weapons, which can be launched from Aircraft, Submarines and Land Based Missiles. It is also believed that Russia has nearly 1200 nuclear warheads awaiting dismantlement and around 1,822 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. In 2022, Russia spent an estimated US$ 9.6 billion to build and maintain its nuclear forces. Russia possess around 521 of Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. Russia inherited nearly 35,000 nuclear weapons after the fall of the USSR. However, under the treaty of New START Treaty they limited the number up to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads. But, in 2022, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START Treaty and the U.S. has claimed Russia is in non-compliance with its treaty obligations. According to the September 2022 New START declaration, Russia deploys 1,549 strategic warheads on 540 strategic delivery systems including ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers.
Both Russia and the United States have committed to adhering treaty limits until 2026. The U.S. intelligence community assesses that, as of December 2022, Russia also maintains an arsenal of 1000-2000 non-strategic nuclear warheads not limited by the New START Treaty. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates that Russia’s military stockpile consists of approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads, with 1,200 delivery system.
Russia has an aim of modernizing the missile delivery system with the goal of eliminating Soviet legacy systems by 2026. Russia have been working on new Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) such as the RS-26 Rubezh road mobile ICBM, RS-28 Sarmat heavy liquid-fueled ICBM, as well as the Yars-M, Osina-RV, and Kedr ICBMs. They have deployed 12 submarines of two different classes, each carrying a different model of submarines launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs). In 2021, Russia also deployed a new mobile missile defense system, the S-500, however, it was not proven to successfully defend against a hypersonic ICBM reentry vehicle until February 2024.
Russia’s Nuclear Threat
On 24 February 2022, Russia issued an order which was interpreted as a threat on Ukraine and on NATO countries as well, if they tried to interfere. Putin stated that ‘Russia will respond immediately’ he said, ‘and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history’. Just after few days on 27 February 2022, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a ‘special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.
The 2020 Russian Doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons ‘in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy’. However, Russia published new Nuclear Doctrine on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use. The 2024 doctrine said that ‘New Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence’ refers instead to aggression against Russia ‘with the use of conventional weapons creating a critical threat to their sovereignty or territorial integrity’. Specific types of conventional weapons are also defined in the document as a ‘massive launch’ of aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs and other flying devices.
Russia’s new nuclear doctrine was months in the making. Although it was released soon after President Biden’s announcement allowing Ukraine to use medium-range conventional missiles (ATACMS) against Russian territory. According to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to ‘combat’ allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty prevents Russia from ever using the Nuclear Weapon on any NATO countries since NATO countries would most likely respond according to the impact of nuclear weapons crosses borders and affects the countries surrounding Ukraine. It has the potential to even trigger full on war with Russia from all the NATO countries. The US has around 150 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs stationed in five NATO countries including Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey. The US, UK, and France also have long range capability for nuclear attacks under NATO auspices. But both scenarios mean NATO being drawn into a major war with Russia.
It is believed that if Russia ever decides to use a Weapon of Mass Distraction on Ukraine, it would more likely be using a short rang, low yield nuclear weapon. Russia has thought to have more than 1000 of them in reserved, which can be deployed quickly. However, any movement of Russian missiles can be monitored by the U.S. and other satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.
Conclusion
Russia being the biggest nuclear power globally, constantly requires watchful eyes on the Russia’a nuclear fuel cycle and missile development. Russia is constantly developing its nuclear program for both peaceful and non-peaceful purposes. One of the main reason of technological development is to export the nuclear technology for the economic growth of their country and to make political relationships. Second reason is to compete and to deter from other major nuclear power including U.S. and NATO countries. Russia came really close to using the nuclear weapon on Ukraine in 2022. However, due to the consequences, it is less likely for Russia to use nuclear weapon on Ukraine or any NATO countries.
The evolution of Russia and U.S. geo-military scenario has the potential to influence global conflict and peace. In order to maintain credibility and to protect its military and economic interest, Russia needs to have a calibrated approach by balancing diplomatic, economical and defence ties with NATO and other countries. In order to decrease global conflict, all the nuclear countries have to agree on ‘Credible Minimum Deterrence’ and follow the aim of ‘Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’.
