At least 26 civilians were killed and several others grievously injured in a brutal terrorist attack in Pahalgam, South Kashmir, on April 22, marking a grave escalation in the hybrid war being waged in Jammu and Kashmir. The assault, executed in the Baisaran Valley, involved terrorists opening indiscriminate fire on a group of tourists after verifying their religious identity as Hindu, making it one of the deadliest civilian massacres in the region in recent memory.
This is not merely an act of terror, it is a clear “Pulwama 2.0” moment for India, drawing chilling parallels with the October 7 Hamas-style attack on Israel. The similarities in tactics and targeting are unmistakable. Crucially, the strike occurred just two days after provocative remarks by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, fueling strong suspicions of direct Pakistani military involvement.
Initial intelligence inputs suggest that the attackers may have been operatives of Pakistan’s Special Service Group (SSG) masquerading as militants, a classic move by the Pakistani deep state. The attack appears to have been a meticulously planned cross-border operation, possibly sanctioned at the highest levels of Pakistan’s military hierarchy, with the objective of destabilizing Kashmir and shifting regional focus.
Such a blatant provocation demands a calibrated but firm response. As Israel has demonstrated in recent months, sovereign nations cannot afford to appear weak in the face of asymmetric warfare. India must now deliberate an equally forceful counter-strategy, not just for deterrence, but for the preservation of its territorial integrity.
Immediately following the attack, Indian paramilitary and police units were deployed to the site to assist victims and initiate a counter-operation. Home Minister Amit Shah flew into Kashmir to oversee security responses, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi aborted a diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia and returned to New Delhi to convene a high-level national security meeting the next morning.
Sequence of Events. What Happened in Pahalgam?
Known locally as the “Valley of Shepherds,” Pahalgam is among the most frequented tourist destinations in Kashmir, located about 50 kilometers from Srinagar. On Tuesday, around 2:45 p.m., a group of armed men clad in camouflage reportedly emerged from a nearby forest and launched a surprise attack on civilians at Baisaran meadow, a scenic upland spot accessible only via pony rides or by foot.
Eyewitnesses stated the area was teeming with tourists when the gunmen struck. The attack occurred while U.S. Vice President JD Vance was visiting India, a detail that further illustrates its geopolitical messaging.
Who Claimed Responsibility?
A statement attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF) – a proxy outfit widely believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack. The TRF has previously been used by Pakistan’s intelligence agencies to obscure direct state involvement in terrorism.
The group cited opposition to the Indian government’s policy of issuing residency permits to non-Kashmiris, a process that began after the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, which ended Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. The move allowed Indian citizens from other states to legally reside and work in the region, a development that Pakistan has consistently framed as demographic engineering.
While it could not independently verify the authenticity of the TRF’s statement, Indian intelligence agencies believe the operation involved at least four attackers – two reportedly from Pakistan, and two from Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Broader Strategic Context
This incident is not isolated. It is part of a broader doctrine of Pakistan’s proxy warfare strategy – weaponizing religion, targeting civilians, and exploiting global diplomatic timings. The intent is as much psychological as tactical, to stir fear, disrupt economic revival in Kashmir, and provoke internal unrest.
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Three Very Important points to consider:
‘1. Pakistan has been systematically probing Indian defences
The attack in Pahalgam is part of a wider, more disturbing pattern. Over the past two years, Pakistan has deliberately shifted the theatre of terror operations from the more heavily secured Kashmir Valley to the hilly districts of the Jammu region – Poonch, Rajouri, Reasi – all of which had seen relative peace for most of the last decade. The renewed focus on Jammu indicates a tactical adjustment: exploiting terrain, testing India’s response, and probing for vulnerabilities.
This push hasn’t been limited to Jammu alone. Ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts along the Line of Control, such as the one recently reported in the J sector, where Pakistani troops crossed the LoC and were pushed back by Indian forces, are further signs of this pattern. Sporadic attacks in the Valley have continued as well, enough to keep Indian forces alert, but not enough to provoke a full-scale retaliation. Together, these actions amount to a calibrated probe — a test of India’s strategic posture across multiple fronts.
2. Rawalpindi’s frustration over losing the Kashmir narrative
For the Pakistan Army, the erosion of its grip over the Kashmir narrative has been a bitter pill to swallow. Since India abrogated Article 370 in 2019, Islamabad has scrambled to mount any meaningful response – diplomatically, militarily, or even rhetorically.
International bodies have largely shrugged, the OIC has offered only token noises, and the Valley – once a hotbed of separatist sentiment – has seen record tourism and credible democratic elections. The symbols of “normalcy” that Rawalpindi once mocked are now becoming entrenched, and it has no counter-narrative left.
It is in this context that General Asim Munir’s recent declaration of Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” – a line not seriously invoked since the Zia era – must be understood. It wasn’t strategic signaling. It was the cry of an institution watching the central pillar of its ideological identity slip away. The louder the rhetoric grows, the clearer it becomes – Rawalpindi is no longer setting the terms of the Kashmir discourse, it’s reacting to its loss.
3. Diversion from the internal battle
At first glance, it may appear irrational for the Pakistan Army to provoke a major incident at a time when it is firefighting crises on multiple fronts. The TTP continues to get the better of it in the tribal areas. Baloch separatists recently held an entire train of off-duty soldiers hostage in a stunning display of defiance. Relations with Afghanistan – once thought to be manageable under the Taliban – have completely deteriorated. The country is in the midst of a deep political and economic rut.
Logically, this would seem the worst time to open another front with India. And yet, that is precisely what Rawalpindi has done. Why?
Because when things fall apart internally, the Army reaches for the only narrative that still holds the country together – India as the eternal enemy.
Talking about Kashmir, launching attacks, risking retaliation, these are all tools to distract, unify, and reassert the Army’s centrality in Pakistan.
In this calculus, even a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam makes sense – it reactivates the India card, reminds the domestic audience of the Army’s supposed raison d’être, and gives the generals something to rally the country around. It is for this reason that the Pakistan Army is even ready to risk an Indian retaliation. It would only help make the institution that thrives on the “India threat” seem more relevant.
Will India Retaliate Against Pakistan? The Looming Dilemma After Pahalgam
The terror attack in Pahalgam – gruesome in both intent and execution – has reignited a critical question in India’s strategic circles – Should India retaliate? And if so, how?
“This Is an Act of War”
For many in India’s security establishment, the answer is already clear. Tara Kartha, Director at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies and a former official with the National Security Council Secretariat, didn’t mince words: “This is an act of war. That’s how we are seeing it.”
Her remark wasn’t off-the-cuff. It came in the backdrop of a fiery April 16 speech by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, where he invoked the two-nation theory and starkly emphasized Pakistan’s “difference from Hindus.”
Kartha connected the dots between rhetoric and reality. “The tone of Munir’s speech and the events in Pahalgam are not coincidental,” she said. “This was a calculated signal.” According to her, unless Pakistan unambiguously condemns the attack and takes concrete action against the perpetrators within 48 hours, a full-blown crisis may be unavoidable.
Pakistan’s Tepid Response
Islamabad’s response has done little to dial down the heat. In a carefully worded early-morning statement, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed “concern” over the attack, extended condolences to the victims, and notably referred to the region as “Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.” That phrasing alone ensured the statement would be seen in India not as an olive branch, but as salt on fresh wounds.
Will India retaliate?
Public pressure on the Modi government — already known for its muscular posture — is immense. There’s a prevailing expectation, especially among the BJP’s support base, that some form of retributive action is inevitable. But voices of caution remain.
But inaction carries its own risks. Another terror attack left unanswered could embolden Pakistan-based elements, undermine India’s deterrent posture, and damage public confidence in the government’s national security capabilities.
From Pulwama to Pahalgam – The Pattern Is Repeating
This is Pulwama 2.0, and possibly worse in its geopolitical calculus. Much like the 2019 Pulwama attack that triggered the Balakot airstrikes by India, the Pahalgam incident appears to be a calibrated escalation. Sources within India’s intelligence community indicate this could be the handiwork of Pakistan’s military establishment, orchestrated under the leadership of General Asim Munir, who is believed to be engineering heightened tensions for internal consolidation and regional leverage.
India, in this instance, cannot afford to respond with just condemnation. Israel’s response to Hamas set a precedent – that sovereign states must retaliate to protect civilian lives and national integrity. India must now consider a proportionate and unflinching response – diplomatically, militarily, and economically.
The Pakistan-Bangladesh Nexus
What complicates the regional equation further is the recent uptick in diplomatic and strategic alignment between Pakistan and Bangladesh under Mhd Yunus, analysts fear a possible drift in Bangladesh’s internal equilibrium – one that Pakistan’s ISI is all too eager to exploit.
It is imperative for India to not just address the immediate security lapse in Pahalgam but also reassess the evolving Bangladesh-Pakistan proximity, especially given the long-standing history of ISI using Bangladeshi soil for proxy operations in the Northeast.
In the aftermath of the attack, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah and the country’s top intelligence chiefs rushed to Srinagar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cutting short a strategic visit to Saudi Arabia, chaired a high-level security meeting to craft a comprehensive response. These are necessary steps -0 but insufficient if not followed by long-term recalibration.
India must:
Launch targeted counter-terror operations across the Line of Control if actionable evidence confirms Pakistani involvement.
Internationally expose the dual-face of Pakistan — one that talks peace but wages asymmetric war through terror proxies like TRF and LeT.
