By: Sofiqua Yesmin, Research Analyst, GSDN
In the early hours of May 7, 2025, India launched Operation Sindoor, a series of precision military strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK). This operation, a direct response to the brutal April 22, 2025, terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 26 civilian lives, marked a significant shift in India’s counterterrorism strategy. The operation not only dismantled key terror hubs but also redefined the security dynamics between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors with a history of tense relations. As the dust settles, the road ahead for South Asia remains fraught with challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties. This article explores the context, execution, and outcomes of Operation Sindoor, and analyzes its broader implications for regional stability, diplomacy, and the future of South Asia.
The Context: A Deadly Trigger in Pahalgam
The Pahalgam attack on April 22, 2025, was one of the deadliest terrorist incidents in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Gunmen targeted tourists in the scenic Baisaran Valley, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen. The attackers’ method was particularly chilling: they segregated male tourists, identified non-Muslims, and executed them in cold blood, leaving their Hindu wives widowed. Indian intelligence agencies quickly traced the attack to operatives linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), two Pakistan-based militant groups with a long history of targeting India. The National Investigation Agency uncovered digital and testimonial evidence pointing to support from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with operational bases in Muzaffarabad and Karachi.
The brutality of the attack, combined with its targeting of civilians and tourists, sparked outrage across India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while attending engagements in Saudi Arabia, swiftly decided that the incident demanded a decisive response. The choice of the name “Operation Sindoor” was symbolic: sindoor, the red vermilion powder worn by married Hindu women, represented the widows left behind by the attack and underscored India’s resolve to avenge the loss and protect its sovereignty. This emotional and cultural framing resonated deeply with the Indian public, particularly among supporters of the Hindu nationalist government, amplifying calls for retaliation.
Execution of Operation Sindoor: Precision and Restraint
Operation Sindoor was launched in the intervening night of May 6-7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 AM, as a coordinated tri-service effort involving the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force. The operation targeted nine terrorist sites across Pakistan and PoJK, including key hubs linked to LeT, JeM, and Hizbul Mujahideen. These locations, identified as training and operational bases, included strongholds in Muridke, Bahawalpur, and areas in Pakistan’s Punjab province—regions previously considered off-limits for direct military action.
India employed a range of high-precision, standoff weapons to minimize risk and collateral damage. The Indian Air Force deployed SCALP cruise missiles, HAMMER precision-guided bombs, and loitering munitions, often called “kamikaze drones,” which hovered over targets to ensure accuracy before striking. Rafale jets, equipped with advanced weaponry, executed deep strikes without crossing into Pakistani airspace, a deliberate choice to avoid escalation. The 23-minute mission exposed gaps in Pakistan’s air defense network, which was either bypassed or neutralized, with no reported loss of Indian assets. The Indian Navy supported the operation by pinning Pakistan’s naval forces near the coast in the Arabian Sea, while the Army bolstered ground-based air defenses with systems like the indigenous Akash and the Russian S-400.
India’s official stance emphasized the operation’s focused, measured, and non-escalatory nature. No Pakistani military, civilian, or economic targets were hit, and the strikes claimed over 100 terrorists, including high-value operatives like JeM leader Abdul Rauf Azhar, implicated in the 1999 IC-814 hijacking and the killing of journalist Daniel Pearl. The operation showcased India’s military superiority, technological advancements, and seamless tri-service coordination, signaling a new era in its counterterrorism doctrine.
Pakistan’s Response and Escalation
Pakistan’s response was swift and escalatory. Islamabad claimed 26 civilians and 46 others were killed or injured in the Indian strikes, accusing New Delhi of an “act of war.” Pakistan’s military launched retaliatory drone and missile attacks on May 9-10, targeting military installations in northern and western India, including Srinagar, Jammu, and Punjab. India’s robust air defense systems, such as the Akashteer, intercepted many of these, and retaliatory strikes hit 11 Pakistani air bases, reportedly destroying 20% of its air force infrastructure. Pakistan claimed to have shot down Indian aircraft, including Rafale jets, but India has not confirmed these losses, and the claims remain unverified.
The tit-for-tat exchanges marked the worst fighting between the two nations in over two decades, raising fears of a wider conflict. Pakistan’s narrative portrayed India’s actions as aggressive, with officials like Defence Minister Khawaja Asif attempting to discredit India on international media, though such claims faltered under scrutiny. Domestically, voices like Pakistan People’s Party Chair Bilawal Bhutto Zardari condemned the strikes as cowardly and vowed a united response. However, a ceasefire, described by India as an “understanding,” was announced on May 10, 2025, following diplomatic efforts.
Strategic Shift: A New Doctrine
Operation Sindoor marked a paradigm shift in India’s national security strategy. Prime Minister Modi declared it a “new normal,” emphasizing that India would no longer tolerate nuclear blackmail or state-sponsored terrorism. The operation targeted not just terrorists but also challenged Pakistan’s perceived nuclear shield, with strikes near sensitive sites like the Kirana Hills and Noor Khan Airbase. This bold move signaled that nuclear capabilities would not deter India from responding to cross-border terrorism.
A significant long-term development was India’s decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. This 1960 agreement, a cornerstone of hydro-diplomacy, has constrained India’s ability to leverage its upper riparian position. By suspending obligations, India introduced a new geo-economic tool, particularly potent given Pakistan’s deepening water crisis. This move, combined with precision strikes, demonstrated India’s willingness to use both kinetic and non-kinetic measures to assert dominance.
The operation also redefined deterrence. India’s restraint avoiding civilian and military targets contrasted with Pakistan’s escalatory response, highlighting a stark asymmetry in capabilities and strategic maturity. West Point expert John Spencer called it an “objective victory,” praising India’s clarity and execution. The strikes dismantled terror networks, restored deterrence, and established a new red line: state-backed terrorism would be treated as an act of war.
Regional and Global Reactions
The global response was mixed but largely favorable to India. The U.S., U.K., Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Russia were briefed by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, who emphasized the operation’s non-escalatory nature. The Wall Street Journal and BBC framed the strikes as a legitimate retaliation for the Pahalgam attack, while the UN Secretary-General urged restraint to avoid a military confrontation. U.S. President Donald Trump called the clashes “a shame” but expressed hope for a quick resolution, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio closely monitoring the situation.
Japan condemned the April 22 attack and urged dialogue, while China expressed concern over escalation, calling for adherence to international law. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and the Malaysian Ulema Association echoed calls for peace, highlighting the broader regional stakes. Within India, the Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee unanimously congratulated the armed forces, and traders in Delhi held a ‘Tiranga March’ in solidarity.
However, tensions led to unintended consequences. Pakistan closed its airspace, causing flight disruptions across South Asia and the UAE, with airlines like Emirates, Air France, and Lufthansa rerouting to avoid the region. Reports of harassment of Kashmiris in India raised concerns, with human rights groups calling for communal harmony.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
Operation Sindoor has reshaped South Asia’s security landscape, but the future remains uncertain. Below are key considerations for the road ahead.
1. Security and Deterrence
India’s new doctrine of pre-emptive, decisive action has strengthened deterrence, but Pakistan’s vow of retaliation risks renewed escalation. The cat-and-mouse game between terrorists and Indian intelligence will intensify, as groups like LeT and JeM seek to rebuild and hide. India must enhance its targeting capabilities, drawing lessons from Israel and the U.S., to sustain pressure on terrorist networks. The emergency procurement powers granted to the armed forces, with a budget of approximately Rs 40,000 crore, will bolster readiness, but sustained investment in advanced weaponry, cyber defenses, and space capabilities is critical.
2. Diplomacy and De-escalation
The ceasefire, facilitated by U.S. communication, underscores the need for dialogue. India’s framing of Kashmir as a bilateral issue and its refusal to invite Pakistan to a UN Security Council briefing signal a hardline stance. However, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty could strain relations further, especially if India restricts water access. A balanced approach combining pressure with backchannel talks could prevent a full-scale conflict, though Pakistan’s internal instability and reliance on China and Turkey complicate matters.
3. Regional Stability
South Asia faces heightened instability. Pakistan’s economic and political fragility, exacerbated by military losses and potential credit downgrades, could fuel domestic unrest. India’s assertive posture may deter terrorism but risks alienating neighbors if perceived as hegemonic. The operation’s de-hyphenation of the Kashmir issue from counterterrorism offers a chance to reframe regional narratives, but success depends on India’s ability to maintain global support and avoid communal tensions at home.
4. Global Implications
Operation Sindoor has global resonance. Democratic states are rethinking deterrence in an era of gray-zone threats and nuclear brinkmanship. India’s use of indigenous systems like Akash and space-based monitoring via ISRO highlights its growing self-reliance, positioning it as a counterweight to China. However, China’s concern and Pakistan’s ties with Turkey and China could draw external powers into the conflict, complicating de-escalation.
5. Humanitarian and Economic Concerns
The human cost 12 civilians and one soldier killed in Pakistani shelling in Jammu and Kashmir underscores the need for civilian protection. Border residents in areas like Uri are stocking supplies and demanding bunkers, while flight disruptions and blackouts reflect economic strain. India’s enhanced cyber vigilance and protection of hydropower assets are positive steps, but long-term stability requires addressing these grassroots challenges.
A Path Forward
The road ahead for South Asia hinges on strategic restraint, rational policy, and mutual respect. India must balance its assertive doctrine with diplomatic outreach to prevent escalation. Pakistan must abandon adventurist policies, address internal fragmentation, and pursue reforms for stability. The international community, including the U.S., UN, and regional powers, can play a constructive role by encouraging dialogue and upholding international law.
Operation Sindoor has demonstrated India’s resolve, maturity, and military prowess, but it also exposed the fragility of regional peace. The operation’s success in dismantling terror hubs and redefining deterrence offers hope, but the risk of retaliation and miscalculation looms large. South Asia stands at a crossroads: a future of coexistence and stability is possible, but it demands careful navigation, robust communication, and a shared commitment to rooting out terrorism.
Conclusion
Operation Sindoor was a watershed moment in South Asia’s history, blending precision strikes with strategic restraint to address a long-standing threat. It marked a new chapter in India’s security doctrine, challenging Pakistan’s support for terrorism and reshaping regional dynamics. The road ahead is complex, with challenges in security, diplomacy, and stability, but also opportunities for dialogue and reform. As India and Pakistan navigate this tense period, the choices they make backed by global support will determine whether South Asia moves toward peace or further conflict.
