Thursday
March 13, 2025
Home Blog Page 6

Global Aerospace Giants bring Cutting Edge Technology to Aero India 2025

2

By: Suman Sharma

Gripen E: source Author

European defence manufacturers are all set to woo the Indian market with their cutting-edge technology on display at the 15th edition of the biennial Indian airshow – Aero India 2025 at Bengaluru.

Saab from Sweden Brings Gripen E

Swedish aerospace and land systems giant – the Saab Group is presenting a wide portfolio of products and systems for the air, land and sea domains at Aero India 2025 at Bengaluru from 10-14 February 2025. Taking center stage will be the Full Scale Replica (FSR) of Gripen E and the Gripen E Cockpit Simulator. On display will also be Carl-Gustaf® M4, to be made in India at the manufacturing facility Saab is establishing in Jhajhar, Haryana.

“We look forward to wide ranging discussions with the Indian Air Force on our Gripen E offer. We will also be engaging with Indian industry for Make in India as well as for discussions on expanding our sourcing from Indian companies which have emerged as suppliers to the world’s foremost aerospace companies,” said Mats Palmberg, Chairman and Managing Director, Saab India.

Adding further Palmberg said, “Aero India 2025 comes at a crucial juncture of global developments, leading to a greater focus on defence capabilities as well as on developing self-reliance along with the need for robust and modern technology. We are fully committed to supporting the Indian government’s Atmanirbhar approach to national defence capability. To that end, Saab is setting up a manufacturing facility for Carl-Gustaf M4 in India, further strengthening production in the country. The facility will support the production of Carl-Gustaf M4 for the Indian Armed Forces as well as components for users of the system around the world. Saab will also be partnering with Indian sub-suppliers and the products manufactured in the facility will fully meet the requirements of Make in India.”

Saab will be showcasing the latest technologies which are changing defence and security planning, deployment and future force readiness. Teams from India, Sweden, South Africa and other countries would be sharing Saab’s wide range of products, solutions, plans and thoughts about how Saab can provide the armed forces of India with products and collaborate with the Indian defence industry.

Products that Saab will be exhibiting at the airshow are:

Gripen E – The world’s most modern fighter, Gripen E, combines exceptional operational performance, a highly advanced networked warfare capability at a whole new level, superior sensor fusion, unique BVR features and an adaptability for new threats that is a decade ahead of any other fighter, making it a true game changer. The Saab offer for the Indian Air Force (IAF) combines cost efficiency with true and extensive transfer of technology.

Carl-Gustaf M4 – is a man-portable multi-role weapon system that provides high tactical flexibility through its wide range of ammunition types. It is extremely light-weight (less than seven kgs), and has improved ergonomics for the gunner which reduces action time and aids accuracy. The new M4 meets the needs of modern conflict environments while offering compatibility with future innovations. The Carl-Gustaf system has been in service with the Indian Army since 1976. Through its wide variety of ammunition, Carl-Gustaf has established itself as the main shoulder launched weapon in the Indian armed forces

AT4CS AST – is a lightweight, man-portable, unguided and fully disposable weapon system. AT4 is optimised for ease of operation and offers maximum versatility and ease of use amongst the family of AT4 weapons. Saab’s AT4 weapon has been selected by the Indian armed forces and will be used by the Indian Army and the IAF.

The Next-Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon (NLAW) system – is the shoulder-launched, Overfly Top Attack, anti-tank missile system that makes it the true tank killer for the infantry which operate dismounted in all environments including built up areas.

Ground Combat Indoor Gunnery Trainer – for ground combat weapon systems, to shape the troops with the best and realistic training which the Indoor Trainer provides by uniting an exact replica of weapons with a close-to-real-life virtual environment.

The AUV62 System – is the latest generation of Saab modular AUV systems. The AUV62-MR for mine reconnaissance has a high-resolution side-looking sonar. It can autonomously search for and identify sea mines with a large area search capability. High-resolution images give excellent situational awareness and data.

Integrated Defence Aids Suite (IDAS) – is a fully integrated end-to-end solution that provides protection for airborne platforms. IDAS includes radar warning, missile approach warning and laser warning sensors. Its advanced sensors coupled with its analysis tool is able to create advance threat libraries to classify the threat. Key benefits include instantaneous response to multiple threats providing an advantage for situational awareness. In India IDAS is so far integrated on the ALH Dhruv helicopter.

Land Electronic Defence System (LEDS) – is an integrated, modular, active protection system combining a laser warning system and effector control, providing armoured combat vehicles with vital situational awareness of laser threats with manual or fully automatic responses against threats.

 r-TWR Deployable – is a deployable, digital tower that provides high availability, mission-to-mission modularity and flexibility. It is mission ready within an hour and can be operated remotely from a secure location at a base or connected to a centralised facility hundreds of miles away, keeping military personnel safe. The r-TWR Deployable can be integrated with various Saab capabilities depending on customer needs. This includes TactiCall Voice Communication System for safe and cyber secure communications, Giraffe 1X lightweight multi-mission surveillance radar with Drone Tracker capability, Sirius Compact passive surveillance for tactical applications and Barracuda camouflage for a reduced multispectral signature.

Carl-Gustaf M4: source Author

Safran To Showcase its cutting-edge Innovations at Aero India 2025

French Safran, a global leader in aerospace, defence, and space technology, is set to make a significant impact at Aero India 2025, by exhibiting its advanced solutions and innovations at its booth located in Hall B, showcasing its commitment to driving technological excellence and fostering partnerships in India’s aerospace and defence ecosystem.

With a rich legacy of engineering excellence, Safran operates across 30 countries and is a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing state-of-the-art aircraft engines, equipment, and defence solutions. Safran powers both military and civil aviation with its technologies, including LEAP engines developed by CFM International in a (50/50) joint venture between Safran Aircraft Engines and GE Aerospace.

In India, Safran has established itself as a key partner in supporting national security and driving civil aviation growth. The group has a robust footprint with 17 facilities with over 2400 employees, through significant partnerships with Indian defence and aerospace organisations.

Safran has been instrumental in developing and supplying critical technologies for military platforms and has contributed to India’s civil aviation sector by collaborating with Indian industries. The aerospace leader has been the pioneer for engine MRO in India both for helicopter engines and commercial LEAP engines.

Aligned with the ‘Make in India’ vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Safran is a staunch advocate of indigenous manufacturing and technology transfer. With significant investments in India including the establishment of cutting-edge manufacturing and maintenance facilities, Safran is committed to nurturing local talent and advancing India’s aerospace ecosystem.

At Aero India 2025, Safran will reinforce its vision for India’s self-reliance in aerospace and defence by showcasing its comprehensive portfolio of products and solutions. These include advanced jet and turboshaft engine technologies, avionics and Automated Test Equipment, and landing gear systems among other products.

MBDA missiles on a Rafael: source Author

MBDA’s Pitch for Make in India

As part of its strong commitment towards ‘Make in India’, for over five decades, European MBDA Missile Systems Ltd, has been delivering battle-winning capabilities to the Indian armed forces, closely collaborating with a wide Indian industrial ecosystem, including the joint venture with Indian private defence firm – Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Indian SMEs and Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) such as Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).

MBDA has a crucial advantage in developing and producing state-of-the-art products by encompassing the best skills and technologies from across borders. Their track record of partnership also makes MBDA uniquely suited as a partner for India that can enhance Indian self-reliance and sovereignty – as can be seen from the successful Make in India of over 50,000 MBDA-designed missiles in partnership with Indian industry till date.

Several emblematic complex weapon systems will be showcased during Aero India 2025, beginning with the air domain at the MBDA stand, where visitors will be able to see the different weapon systems that arm India’s Dassault Rafale combat aircraft, especially the Meteor missile system. Widely recognised as a game changer for air combat, this beyond visual range air-to-air missile is powered by a unique rocket-ramjet motor giving it far more engine power, for much longer than any other missile. In other words, its no-escape zone is many times greater than any other air-to-air missile.

Also, in the air domain attendees will be able to view the ASRAAM air combat missile that is delivering India’s Next Generation Close Combat Missile capability. The fastest close combat missile in the world, IAF Jaguar and Tejas fighter jets are the first to gain this vital system for ensuring India’s dominance in air combat.

On the MBDA stand’s maritime domain, a focus will be on Sea Ceptor naval air defence system that is being offered to the Indian Navy for its VL SRSAM requirement through a joint venture. Visitors to Aero India will be able to see the futuristic technologies featured within Sea Ceptor and how they would provide Indian sailors with a Make in India solution that provides the very best defence from air attack, providing robust protection of host platform and escorted shipping.

L&T MBDA Missile Systems Ltd, MBDA’s joint venture with Larsen & Toubro, will also be exhibiting at Aero India 2025, showcasing the work it performs in Coimbatore, delivering Make in India projects in support of Atmanirbhar Bharat for the Indian Air Force. Besides VL SRSAM, other results of the strong local co-operation ability of MBDA in India include the ATGM5 anti-tank missile, proposed as an Indian designed, developed and manufactured next generation battlefield missile to meet the needs of Indian operators.

AT4: source Author

Israel Aerospace Industries to Showcase World Class Missile Systems, Drones

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), a world-class aerospace and defence leader will showcase its latest advancements in defence technology at Aero India, demonstrating its commitment to India as a strategic partner and a key market in the defence sector. The company’s presence at the exhibition highlights its nearly 40 years of collaboration with India and its dedication to strengthening defence cooperation between the two nations.

IAI’s participation in Aero India 2025 underscores its long-standing relationship with India, reinforcing its deep-rooted collaboration with the country’s defence sector and the Indian armed forces. Over the past year, IAI has made several additional investments in the Indian market, including with its subsidiary AeroSpace Services India (ASI); its partnership with IIT Delhi, demonstrating its commitment to the next generation in India; the launch of its NeuSPHERE Innovation Acceleration Program, enabling collaboration with Indian deep-tech startups and most recently; and the opening of its new HELA Systems facility in Hyderabad, enhancing localised Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capabilities for advanced radar systems and reducing turnaround times for India’s defence forces. These reflect IAI’s ongoing commitment to India’s self-reliance goals under the ‘Make in India’ vision.

At Aero India 2025, IAI will exhibit a diverse portfolio of state-of-the-art defence solutions tailored to meet the evolving challenges of modern warfare. Among the key systems on display are:

  • OptSAR 550 – A dual-payload electro-optical and synthetic aperture radar (EO/SAR) tactical observation system designed for real-time intelligence and reconnaissance missions
  • MCS – A cost-effective digital communication satellite offering robust and secure connectivity for military and government operations
  • Heron TP – A multi-role, medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) remotely piloted aerial system (RPAS) providing superior intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities
  • B767 FRA – A strategic flight refueler aircraft capable of extending the operational range of combat aircraft and enhancing air superiority
  • APUS – A long-endurance quadcopter designed for persistent surveillance, border security, and tactical reconnaissance missions
  • MRSAM– An integrated air and missile defense system providing advanced protection against aerial threats, including missiles, aircraft, and UAVs
  • Oron Aircraft (ELI-3150) – A multi-mission airborne reconnaissance and surveillance system designed for persistent intelligence gathering and situational awareness
  • Eitam Aircraft (ELW-2085) – A conformal airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system equipped with state-of-the-art radar and battle management capabilities

Boaz Levy, President & CEO of IAI says, “India is a long-term strategic partner for Israel Aerospace Industries, and our presence at Aero India 2025 emphasises our dedication to strengthen this relationship. IAI is proud to partner with India’s defence forces, offering state-of-the-art solutions tailored to meet their operational needs. We are committed to further collaboration with the Indian defence industry and government agencies to further enhance its technological security capabilities”, adding, “We look forward to meeting with key stakeholders in India’s defence ecosystem, exploring new partnerships, and presenting our latest technological innovations at the exhibition. We remain steadfast in our mission to provide reliable, cutting-edge defence solutions that address the complex challenges of modern warfare.”

Thales Alenia Space and NIBE Sign Satellite Supply Contract for India’s first private Earth Observation constellation

Thales Alenia Space, the joint venture between Thales (67%) and Leonardo (33%), has signed a contract with NIBE Space (a subsidiary of NIBE Limited) concerning the supply of a high-resolution optical satellite, marking the first step in NIBE’s Earth Observation constellation project. This initial contract aims to establish the first operational Earth observation’s capabilities for NIBE in India by 2025.

This achievement reinforces the partnership initiated in 2024 between Thales Alenia Space and NIBE, for the deployment of India’s first private Earth Observation constellation.

“I am extremely pleased that Thales Alenia Space will contribute to developing sovereign Earth Observation capabilities in India,” said Hervé Derrey, CEO of Thales Alenia Space, adding, “Supporting the deployment of India’s first private Earth observation constellation means a lot to our company as this is Thales Alenia Space’s first cooperation on an Indian space program.”

2015-2025: The Decade That Ceded Israel’s Military Might

2

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Israel Defence Forces emblem: source Internet

Robert Atkins famous quote “Don’t fix what’s not broken” has a deep meaning when Israel’s military might is compared between the period 1948-2014 when the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was the finest professional military in the world, to the decade 2015-2025 in which Israel had to end its wars with Hamas and Hezbollah with ceasefires that lead to the resignation of the IDF’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 clearly indicating defeat for the IDF.

Background of the IDF

After David Ben-Gurion proclaimed the Israeli Declaration of Independence on May 14, 1948, the first order he passed was the formation of the IDF. The IDF on formation comprised of personnel who had served in the Haganah and the Palmach.

Haganah which was founded in 1920 was the main Zionist paramilitary organisation that operated for the Yishuv (the Jewish settlements) in the British Mandate for Palestine, protecting the Jewish from the attacks by the Arabs.

Palmach, which was founded in May 1941 was the elite strike force of Haganah, capable of operations on land, sea and air that was the secretive and underground, too worked for Yishuv, comprised 2000 personnel.

Both Haganah and Palmach were disbanded on May 26, 1948 when the IDF was officially raised and all the personnel of Haganah and Palmach were absorbed in the IDF.

In the first war that Israel fought immediately after its independence, it was confronted with a four-front attack waged by Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan backed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The invading armies of the Arabs had 270 tanks, 150 field guns and 300 aircraft despite an over-whelming numerical superiority, as compared to just three tanks and no aircrafts that the IDF had then.

By the time the 1949 Armistice Agreements were signed between Israel and the warring Arab nations on different days that year, Israel emerged victorious though losing the Gaza Strip to Egypt and the West Bank to Jordan including East Jerusalem.

On July 20, 1949 after the last of the armistice agreements was signed between Israel and Syria, the IDF despite numerous shortages and handicaps, had won the War of Independence for Israel and thereafter the IDF grew from strength to strength in the next nearly-seven decades, to being reckoned as the finest professional military in the world.

The pole position for the IDF amongst the professional global militaries came after immense trials, tribulations, basing their doctrines on sound military foundations and above all, the immense war experience that the IDF gained through numerous wars, conflicts and skirmishes that the IDF was baptised in, soon after its formation in 1948.

In the subsequent three multi-front wars that Israel fought in 1956, 1967 and 1973, the IDF always emerged victorious and managed to take back the Gaza Strip, West Bank and the Sinai Peninsula.

The numerous special missions carried out by the IDF,  be it the “Operation Wrath of God” in 1972 to revenge the killing of the Israeli athletes participating in 1972 Munich Olympics or the successful Raid on Entebbe codenamed “Operation Thunderbolt” launched on July 03-04, 1976 to rescue 104 hostages hijacked onboard an Air France flight between Tel Aviv and Paris, which was diverted to Entebbe International Airport, Uganda, cemented IDF’s position as the finest professional military in the world.

After Hezbollah was formed in Lebanon in 1985 and the Hamas in 1987, the IDF found itself involved in wars with both these organisations in the last 18 years.

After Hamas started administering the Gaza Strip in 2007 which is located on Israel’s southern border, Israel has attacked the Gaza Strip five times in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021 and 2023. But each time Israel had to end its war with Hamas with ceasefires, the last of which being in January 2025.

On Israel’s northern border too, the IDF had to end its war on the Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and 2024 with a ceasefire.

Despite the IDF ending its wars with the Hamas in 2008, 2012 and 2014 and with Hezbollah in 2006 with ceasefires, it took a decision in 2015 that would have far reaching consequences on the credibility of the IDF as the world’s finest fighting force.

For, it was in the year 2015 that the Israeli political and military leadership agreed for the implementation of the Gideon Multi-Year Plan (GMYP) for restructuring the IDF in a massive way that would affect the structure, doctrine and war-fighting priorities of the IDF, with the hope of transforming the IDF into a modern, lean and more combat-effective force. Various implications of the GYMP have been discussed by the Author in his recent article.

As Israel’s 2023-2025 war with Hamas and the 2024 war with Hezbollah will prove, the GMYP proved to a blunder and with both the adversaries, Israel had to end the war on a ceasefire, which eventually led to the resignation of IDF’s two senior-most officers.

The Gideon Multi-Year Plan

In October 2015, the Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot while announcing the GMYP in a press conference, stated it as an extensive five-year modernisation effort that would give the IDF a “completely new look in 2020”.

The salient points of the GMYP that would totally transform the IDF for futuristic combat that disregarded a conventional war scenario, encompassed the following –

  • Vast reduction in manpower and training doctrines
  • Establishing cyber and signal intelligence wings
  • Reduce artillery and armoured brigades
  • Replacing the Division as the cutting-edge combat fighting force by Integrated Battle Groups
  • Achieve cost-cutting in the defence budget

GMYP proved to be a blunder as the above measures failed miserably as has been analysed in detail by the Author in his recent article.

Tnufa

Consequent to the success of implementation of the GMYP in the stipulated five-year period, the IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi on February 13, 2020 announced a new multi-year plan called “Tnufa” which is a Hebrew word meaning “Momentum” in English.

Tnufa envisioned harnessing latest technologies to infuse the most effective firepower to the frontline combat units. The emphasis was on short and swift operations to deal with organisations like the Hamas and Hezbollah, as conventional war threats no longer figured in the IDF discussions and deliberations. Tnufa also revolved around abandoning the historical proclivity of the IDF for offensive operations.

In essence, the IDF had decided to have a defensive mindset as they felt that they would be dealing only with the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah who were “mere terrorist organisations” as they were devoid of air power, naval power and artillery firepower that a conventional military possesses.

This was a grave blunder that further dented the combat prowess of the IDF affected by GMYP as the mindset and mentality of a nation’s armed forces must always be offensive and long exposures to counter-insurgency and fighting with terror organisation impedes and impacts the preparedness of a nation’s military for a conventional war.

Effect of GMYP and Tnufa in IDF’s recent wars with Hamas & Hezbollah

As the result of the GMYP and Tnufa defence reforms which were touted to be Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) for the IDF that were launched in the decade 2015 onwards, the IDF felt fully confident of tackling any threat that Israel was to ever face.

So much was the confidence of the IDF in the recent RMAs that intelligence reports emanating since 2022 warning of a large-scale attack by Hamas was rubbished on the belief that it was not executable given the immense military superiority that IDF enjoyed. So much so, the 40-page document accessed by the Israeli intelligence officials code-named “Jericho Wall” outlined point by point, the way the Hamas attack would attack Israel. It happened exactly as was outlined in “Jericho Wall” on October 07, 2023 and the IDF was unprepared to defend Israel.

Reduction in manpower, change in training doctrines, reduced combat formations, superior confidence, cost-cutting measures and negating conventional war threats that emanated from GMYP and Tnufa had disastrous consequences on October 07, 2023 when at 6.30 am over a 1000 Hamas personnel invaded Israel and killed over 1200 Israeli citizens and soldiers and took 251 hostages.

The ultra-tech “Iron Wall” created as a consequence to the GMYP whose construction commenced in 2016 and was completed in 2021 was breached at 40 places by Hamas and for 20 minutes till 6.50 am when the IDF’s electromagnetic spectrum was jammed, Hamas personnel created bloodbath and mayhem inside 15 miles of the Israeli territory as the IDF was helpless as its communications were jammed.

The 30-foot-tall border wall on its northern border with Lebanon constructed in 2018 too proved ineffective for the Hezbollah attacks that started on Israel soon after the Hamas attack of 0ctober 07, 2023.

The defensive mindset that had set in the IDF due to GMYP and Tnufa had telling consequences and the ground offensive launched by the IDF in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon started meeting with stiff resistance. The Royal United Services Institute, a reputed think-tank located in London, on October 25, 2024 reported Israel losing the war with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Despite the IDF causing total destruction of the 365-square kilometres Gaza Strip and killing all the top leadership of Hamas including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar and causing immense destruction of southern Lebanon and killing the top leadership of Hezbollah which included Hasan Nasrallah, there was growing discontent by the Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and senior IDF officers with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over huge reverses being suffered by the IDF on both its northern and southern borders and the reluctance to sign ceasefire with both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Unable to take the losses that the IDF was suffering, Yoav Gallant became a bitter critic of Benjamin Netanyahu and in the midst of the Israeli wars with Hamas and Hezbollah was dismissed as the Defence Minister on November 05, 2024. This was the first clear indication that indeed Israel was losing the wars.

Eventually, Israel ended its wars with a ceasefire with both the Hamas and Hezbollah on January 19, 2025 and November 27, 2024 respectively, which ended the 15-month war with Hamas and the 60-day war with Hezbollah.

The resignation of the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 cemented Israel’s defeat in its war both with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Never before in military history, has a military chief resigned after his nation has won the war. Military chiefs resign after a war only when their nation gets defeated.

Other Reasons for Israel’s Defeat

There are few other reasons that need deliberation which contributed to Israel’s defeat to Hamas and Hezbollah apart from GMYP and Tnufa that have been discussed in detail above.

Political unrest in Israel:     The political unrest that had started in Israel soon after Benjamin Netanyahu announced judicial reforms in January 2023 that sought to curb the Israeli judiciary’s independence, started escalating as they were perceived to be done with the aim of protecting Benjamin Netanyahu who was facing a slew of corruption charges. As the protests escalated, many reservists refused to join active duty in the IDF. As a result, the IDF faced enormous manpower crunch.

Political leadership needs to understand that a nation’s military is made up from the same civil society and any action that is against the constitution or moral-ethics has a consequence for the nation’s defence forces too, as no nation’s army can be isolated and insulated from its civil society, whatever be the curbs and controls imposed on the uniformed personnel.

Hyped ultra-nationalism for Power:           Benjamin Netanyahu by backing the 2018 Nation-State Law which effectively established the Israeli Arabs as second-class citizens, created deep fissures in the Israeli society. Out of the total Israeli population, 21.1% are Israeli Arabs and 73.2% are Jews. Though this hyped ultra nationalism helped Benjamin Netanyahu to be in power, but it wrecked the Israeli society and Israel started witnessing internal discord. A fractured and divided nation is always an easy prey for its enemies.

Conclusion

If Israel regards Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organisations, then it needs to study the report on how terrorist groups end published by the RAND Corporation, a highly-credible US global policy think-tank, on June 30, 2008 which highlighted that only 7% of the terrorists’ groups ended by using military force whereas 43% ended through political dialogues, 40% through effective policing and 10% after the objectives of the terrorist organisations had been achieved.

And, if Israel envisions Hamas and Hezbollah as conventional war threats, then the IDF needs a relook at the defence reforms undertaken as a consequence of the Gideon Multi-Year Plan and Tnufa and the Israeli political leadership needs to think on reuniting the Israeli society, whatever religion an Israeli citizen may belong to.

HAL’s LUH to take Centre Stage at Aero India 2025, CATS Warrior Promises to be Star of India Pavilion

0

By: Suman Sharma

HTT-40: source Internet

India’s premiere aircraft manufacturing public sector unit (PSU) – Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) will showcase its indigenous products and technologies centered on the theme ‘Innovate. Collaborate. Lead’ at Aero India 2025 beginning February 10, 2025 at Airforce Station Yelahanka in Bengaluru.

“HAL’s indigenously designed and developed Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) will be at the center stage. Various innovative products conceived and developed by HAL R&D (research and development) Divisions in the area of avionics, mechanical systems, engines and aerospace for manned and unmanned aircraft will also be the highlight at HAL stall”, says Dr D K Sunil, CMD, HAL.

The HAL manufactured LUH, Hindustan Turbo Trainer (HTT)-40 Simulator, scaled models of LCA Mk1A fighter, LCA Mk1 Trainer, Hindustan Jet Trainer (HJT)-36, HTT-40, LCH and ALH Mk IV are some of the expected star attractions at HAL’s indoor pavilion, along with the scaled models of Hindustan 228 and its amphibian variant, while the outdoor display adjacent to HAL stall, will comprise the LCA Mk 1A and HJT 36. HTT-40, LCA Mk 1 Trainer, Hindustan 228, Do-228 and LUH on static display. 

The flying display will witness the unique LCA Mk 1A formation, HJT 36, HTT-40 and LUH. 

The central theme of the India Pavilion is ‘Flight of Self Reliance’. A functional full-scale engineering demonstrator of Combat Air Teaming System (CATS) Warrior will be the highlight of the India Pavilion along with Advanced Light Helicopter Next Generation (ALH NG) and RUAV. ALH NG will be placed in front of the India Pavilion to signify HAL’s entry into civil aviation. For the first time, a 1:1 model of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) will also be placed at the pavilion. There will also be sections for new technologies and future marquee products.

HAL’s indoor pavilion will showcase state-of-the-art avionics systems like Mission Management System, Digital Map Generator, Data Lite-Communication System, IFF & CIT, Indigenous Communication Complex with Audio Management System, Audio Warning System, SCDLU, Radio Control Panels etc. Also, the advanced Flight Control Actuators and electro mechanical systems like Active Side Stick Control will also be on display.

Static models of actual HTSE-1200 and GTEG-60 engines will be showcased displaying their technological challenges and innovation. An exclusive aerospace corner with scaled models of Cryogenic Engine CE-20, GSLV Mk III and Chandrayaan-3 will showcase HAL’s capabilities and role in the aerospace industry.

HAL will promote indigenously built platforms to visiting defence delegations and hold business meetings with OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and customers besides signing agreements and contracts with its business partners for various projects. 

Why Greenland matters in Global Geopolitics

2

By: Sandhya Ladwal, Research Analyst, GSDN

Greenland: source Internet

Greenland, the world’s largest island, has become a central focus in global geopolitics due to its strategic location, natural resources, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. Its significance spans historical military interests, economic opportunities, and environmental considerations that collectively influence international relations.

Greenland is located in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans, it connects North America, Europe, and the Arctic region. This distinctive geographical position has historically rendered it a strategic asset for military endeavours and continues to bolster its significance in the realms of global trade and security. The island has rich natural resources, including rare earth elements, like Uranium and Oil which draw the interest of major global powers to obtain essential materials for contemporary technologies. Furthermore, the ongoing melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, which significantly contributes to global sea-level rise, highlights its environmental significance and the wider consequences of climate change.

History

Greenland’s global importance was raised during World War II, when the United States constructed naval posts on the island to safeguard the North Atlantic and Axis powers. The most important of these is the Thule Air Base, which was built in 1941 & is still a crucial part of NATO’s missile defence system today. Recognizing Greenland’s strategic significance, the United States offered Denmark US$ 100 million in gold for the island in 1946, but the offer was turned down. Throughout the Cold War, Greenland’s position made it a vital region for observing Soviet actions in the Arctic and North Atlantic. The Thule Air Base worked as an important early warning system regarding potential missile attacks, emphasising the island’s position within global security frameworks.

2009 Act of Self-Government

An important turning point in Greenland’s journey toward increased autonomy and possible independence from Denmark was the Greenland Self-Government Act of 2009. It replaced the Home Rule Act of 1979 and gave Greenland power over its internal affairs while preserving Denmark’s dominance over defence, foreign policy, and money. The act’s acknowledgment of Greenlanders as a distinct people under international law was one of its most noteworthy features. The Greenlander people decide to seek full independence through a referendum. Furthermore, Greenland’s cultural and national identity was strengthened when Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) was designated as the only official language.

Natural resources and geostrategic

Greenland has large deposits of rare earth elements, which are necessary for technologies and manufacturing the batteries which include electric vehicles and wind turbines, wind and solar technologies that have drawn global interest. The United States and the European Union are eager to get these natural resources so that they can reduce their reliance on China’s dominant supply chain. However, mining in Greenland has been hindered by low ore concentrations, harsh Arctic temperatures, and the island’s dedication to environmental sustainability.

Is climate change opening new trade routes?

The melting of Arctic ice is opening up new shipping routes, such as the Northern Sea Route, which could drastically reduce transit time between Asia and Europe. Greenland’s closeness to these new routes increases its strategic relevance in global trade. Furthermore, the island’s ice sheet contributes significantly to global sea-level rise, making it a key focus of climate change research and worldwide environmental policy discussions.

Greenland is a geostrategic location for countries like the United States, China and Russia. The Arctic has transformed into a stage for geopolitical rivalry among key nations, such as the U.S., Russia, and China. Russia has been increasing Its military activities in the Arctic, whereas China aims to create a “Polar Silk Road” within its Belt and Road Initiative. With its strategic positioning and resources, Greenland stands at the crossroads of these interests, which require careful decision for the geopolitical relations.

The United States maintains a significant perspective on Greenland’s importance to national security. In 2019, President Donald Trump articulated a desire to acquire Greenland, highlighting its strategic position. This suggestion faced strong resistance from Denmark, who underscored the island’s autonomy and the aspirations of its inhabitants to shape their own destiny.

Russia has been expanding its military presence in the Arctic, reopening and modernizing Soviet-era bases and enhancing its capabilities in the region. Greenland’s location is strategically significant for Russia, as it lies along potential Arctic shipping routes and near areas of military interest. Russia’s activities in the Arctic are part of a broader strategy to assert its influence and secure access to natural resources as polar ice melts.

China has expressed interest in Greenland’s vast deposits of rare earth elements, which are needed for a variety of technologies, including electronics and renewable energy systems. Chinese companies have sought to invest in Greenland’s mining sector to secure these resources. China has identified Greenland as a valuable partner in its Arctic strategy, emphasizing economic cooperation. Chinese companies have expressed interest in Greenland’s mining sector, particularly for rare earth elements needed for modern technology. For instance, Chinese firms have engaged in discussions with Greenlandic authorities since 2012, exploring opportunities in mining and infrastructure development.

However, these investments have faced challenges. Greenland, the low concentrations of ore and a strong commitment to environmental stability prevented the extraction of minerals. In addition, the differences and cultural problems have occurred in the practice of work, in particular with regard to the potential influx of Chinese workers for large -scale projects.

Greenland in the world: Nothing about us without us

In February 2024, Greenland introduced its Foreign, Security, and Defence Policy Strategy (2024-2033), “Greenland in the World: Nothing about us without us.” This strategy reflects Greenland’s desire to enhance its presence and influence in global matters, especially concerning the Arctic region.

Enhanced autonomy in Foreign Affairs:   Greenland aims to take a more active role in foreign policy decisions, reducing reliance on Denmark and ensuring that international policies affecting Greenland involve direct Greenlandic participation.

Strengthening Arctic Partnerships:   The strategy emphasizes building closer ties with Arctic North American regions, including Alaska and Arctic Canada (Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut). Greenland proposes establishing a new political forum called the Arctic North American Forum to facilitate collaboration on shared Arctic interests.

Commitment to Peace and Security:     Greenland aims to keep the Arctic a region of low tension. The government intends to set up a peace centre in Greenland to encourage dialogue and stability within the area.

Economic Development and Environmental Stewardship:   The strategy is important in balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Greenland is keen on developing its natural resources, including critical minerals, while implementing measures to protect its fragile Arctic ecosystem.

Greenland’s role in global geopolitics is complex, involving strategic military concerns, valuable natural resources, and significant environmental issues. As climate change alters conditions in the Arctic, Greenland’s significance is expected to increase, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The island must navigate the intricate task of managing economic growth alongside environmental protection while dealing with the interests of major global powers. The future of Greenland will greatly impact, and be shaped by, broader geopolitical trends in the Arctic and beyond.

Resignation of the IDF Chief of Staff: Warning Bell for Global Militaries

5

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi: source Internet

After Israel declared its independence on May 14, 1948 it was well aware of the onslaught that it would face from the neighbouring Arab nations, as its unilateral declaration of independence was in contravention to the United Nations resolution 181 (II) of November 29, 1947 and after decades of bloody confrontation with the Arabs in this tiny area of the Middle East measuring 22,145 square kilometres.  

But Israel prepared itself militarily well and for decades later, it fought various multi-front wars with its Arab neighbours and each time it emerged victorious thus setting a benchmark for the global militaries for professionalism in the armed forces.

Neither the UN resolution 242 of 1967 which declared Israel’s occupation of the Gaza Strip, West Bank and the Golan Heights illegal, deterred Israel as the might of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was enough for the four multi-front wars that had been waged on Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973, nor the numerous skirmishes and minor conflicts that Israel has fought since its independence impeded Israel’s military might.

The high point of IDF’s combat prowess came in 1973 when in the 19-day Yom Kippur War it defeated a 11-nation coalition force.

The successful Raid on Entebbe codenamed “Operation Thunderbolt” launched on July 03-04, 1976 to rescue 104 hostages hijacked onboard an Air France flight between Tel Aviv and Paris which was diverted to Entebbe International Airport, Uganda, embedded IDF’s position as the finest professional military in the world.

But the supremacy of the IDF in the Middle East and as the pole leader as the world’s most professional military was set to be challenged.

After Hamas was formed on December 10, 1987 and started governing the 365-square kilometres Gaza Strip since 2007, Israel has attacked the Gaza Strip located on its southern border, five times in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021 and 2023. But each time Israel had to end its war with Hamas with a ceasefire.

On Israel’s northern border too, the IDF had to end its war on the Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and 2024 with a ceasefire.

Clearly, the same IDF which had defeated a 11-nation coalition force during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 ending its wars with a ceasefire with both the Hamas and Hezbollah on January 19, 2025 and November 27, 2024 respectively, which ended the 15-month war with Hamas and the 60-day war with Hezbollah, is definitely what the global militaries and the IDF too, need to ponder upon.

The resignation of the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman on January 21, 2025 clearly indicated defeat for the IDF.

Hence, it is important to analyse the changes that IDF went through which transformed it from winning the war in 1973 against a 11-nation coalition force, to its defeat in 2025 against Hamas and Hezbollah, which are not professional armies as they lack air power, naval power and artillery firepower.

Disregarding the Conventional War Threat

After the Arab Spring hit Syria and the regime of Bashar al-Assad was on a shaky wicket with a civil war engulfing Syria, Israel judged that that the last of the conventional war threats to it in the Middle East from Syria had crippled. Of the assessed major conventional war threats to Israel were Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Israel had signed a peace treaty with Egypt on March 26, 1979 and with Jordan on October 26, 1994. Thus, the only remaining conventional war threat of Syria with whom Israel had no peace treaty, was crippled severely as per Israel’s assessment.

Hamas and Hezbollah were not major threats and were dismissed by the IDF as “mere terrorist organisations” who lacked combat experience, confidence and firepower to be elevated as primary military threats.

Hence, in 2015, the IDF promulgated the Gideon Multi-Year Plan (GMYP) to reform, recalibrate and reduce the IDF to counter the asymmetric and non-state adversary threats overlooking the conventional war considerations.

As time would prove later on, the GYMP was a blunder and the IDF couldn’t achieve victories in the ground operations launched against Hamas in the Gaza Strip or against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2025.

An important lesson for the global militaries is never discard conventional war threats.

Changes in Battlegroup Formations

Before the formulation of GMYP, a Division was the cutting edge fighting force of the IDF. After 2015, Brigades were redesignated as Independent Battle Groups (IBGs) which replaced the Divisions as frontline fighting forces of the IDF. Each IBG with six battalions of Infantry, Armour, Artillery and Engineers could directly communicate with the Air Force and the Navy for combat support.

This reform of IBGs clearly failed in the conventional war scenario as is evident from the huge reverses and setbacks that the IBGs suffered in both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

An important take-away for the global militaries is that the time-tested Divisions as the cutting edge should not be replaced.

Reduction of Manpower

The IDF reduced their combat and non-combat manpower by 10% and the size of the conscripted forces by 30%. The length of conscripted service was reduced by four months. The commissioned and warrant officer posts were reduced by 45,000.

In the recent operations against Hamas and Hezbollah, the IDF experienced a severe shortage of manpower.

It would be pertinent to highlight that global militaries should avoid large reduction in manpower, for how advanced technology might become, what will finally matter is the soldier behind the weapon.

Drastic change in Infantry training

Consequent to 2015, the IDF Infantry soldiers’ training focussed primarily on urban warfare and open-battlefield warfare practises were removed from specialized training programmes.

It would be pertinent here to highlight that an IDF soldier undergoes two stages of training – basic training and specialised training. Basic training is common to all soldiers and specialized training is as per the respective combat role ie Infantry, Armoured, Artillery etc.

The removal of open-warfare practises from the specialized training of an Infantry soldier did immense damage in Israel’s recent war with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Global militaries should avoid doing away with the teachings of conventional warfare.

Reduced Armour

In accordance with the GMYP wherein emphasis was on urban warfare rather than conventional warfare, ten reserve armoured brigades of the IDF were reduced and the size of each armoured battalion was reduced from six armour companies to three armour companies along with two companies of infantry and one company of engineers. This resulted in drastic reduction of armour firepower which proved disastrous in the recent wars.

Armour firepower will play a critical role in conventional wars and global militaries need to remember that.

Reduction in Artillery

The Artillery in IDF too saw half of its reserve artillery brigades dismantled, leaving the IDF with just four active artillery brigades and four reserve artillery battalions. Artillery is known as the “God of War” and the inadequacy of the IDF’s artillery firepower was noticed in the recently concluded ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Global militaries should never reduce the traditional firepower sources like Artillery as their usage in a conventional war scenario is extremely beneficial.

Conclusion

Clearly, by negating conventional war threats and preparing for only asymmetric warfare, Israel paid a heavy price and its pole position as the world’s finest professional military for many decades, has been dented severely. The resignation of IDF’s Chief of Staff and the Southern Army Commander should be having the IDF and the global militaries introspecting and taking suitable and time-bound measures in protecting their respective nations as war clouds darken in various parts of the world.

Never before in Israel’s history has the IDF’s Chief of Staff or the Commander of any of its Commands resigned after any war that Israel has fought since 1948, as after each war from 1948 till couple of years back, Israel emerged victorious. This wasn’t the case this time.

The warning of the United Kingdom Defence Secretary on January 15, 2024 that the “era of the peace dividend” which came with the end of the Cold War is over with the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and these wars are the forerunners of future wars, needs no over-emphasis to global militaries in learning lessons from the IDF and preparing for the era of wars that is already on the horizon.

Thales To debut FlytX suite for helicopters in Aero India 2025

1

By: Suman Sharma

Thales maritime patrol aircraft: source Author

European defence giant-Thales will showcase its cutting-edge technologies across the defence and aerospace sectors at the 15th edition of Aero India 2025, highlighting the Group’s commitment to ‘Make in India for India and for the world’, aligned with the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ vision.

For the first time in India, Thales will showcase its innovation in avionics through the FlytX suite for helicopters, in advanced aeronautics navigation systems such as TopAxyz, TopShield and TopStar M. Connectivity solutions such as SYNAPS-A, the airborne member of the SYNAPS software-defined radio family designed to support battlespace digitisation, Modem 21 Air Compact, and the NextW@ve TRA 6030 radio, will also be brought to Aero India this year.

As a leader in the fast-growing market of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Thales will provide an overview of its portfolio of drone solutions, including its EagleShield drone countermeasures (an integrated nano, micro, mini and small drone countermeasures solution to protect and secure civil and military sites); the PARADE system that provides 360 degree protection of people, properties and activities, optimised for micro and mini UAS, ranging from 25kg to 100g and Gamekeeper (a holographic radar that allows detection, tracking and classification of unlimited targets simultaneously including micro and mini drones), in addition to its safe and efficient UTM (Unmanned Traffic Management) system for cooperative and non-cooperative drones, to be unveiled for the first time in India.

Thales will also present its LGR 68 and LGR 70 Laser Guided Rockets that come with laser guidance precision, are jamming-proof and are extremely precise for guiding ammunition to target.

Some of the products, Thales boasts of are state-of-the-art equipment on board fighter aircraft, including the RBE2 AESA radar, the Spectra electronic warfare suite, optronics, the communication, navigation and identification suite (CNI), key cockpit display systems and a logistics support component.

The avionics leader will also highlight its combat-proven airborne optronics, including TALIOS (Targeting Long-range Identification Optronic System) pod, the 2-in-1 system that delivers unmatched image quality, and the InfraRed Search and Track (IRST) system. Also on display will be Thales’s air defence solutions such as the Lightweight Multi-role Missile (LMM), the STARStreak missile and ForceShield, alongside air surveillance capabilities such as the GM 200 MM/A radar and the SkyView air command and control system.

As part of its underwater solutions for efficient Maritime Security Operations, Thales will feature its Sonoflash sonobuoy, an anti-submarine warfare system that allows the detection, classification and localisation of submarines. It will also showcase the AirMaster C radar- the latest addition to its Air Master range of airborne surveillance radars -that is highly adaptable and can be integrated into both manned and unmanned airborne platforms.

Thales euronaval sono flash: source Author

AI Systems

Thales is a major AI player in these complex environments. The company is Europe’s top patent applicant in the field and devotes a lot of effort to research on AI, both in-house and through academic and industry partnerships. The Group provides armed forces with greater efficiency in data analysis and decision-making, while taking into account the specific constraints, such as cybersecurity, embeddability and frugality, associated with critical environments. On display will be how Thales embarked AI on its solutions such as TALIOS or AirMaster C radar.

“As India progresses towards its Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision, Thales is proud to be a trusted partner in the nation’s ambitious journey. We remain committed to ‘Make in India’ and are advancing our roadmap by strengthening our local teams, collaborations and bringing advanced defence and aerospace technologies to the country. We look forward to continue equipping the Indian armed forces with the next generation of innovative and effective solutions to support their strategic defence ambitions. Aero India 2025 will serve as a key platform for us to present our flagship capabilities and engage with the authorities, forces and our industry partners.” said Pascale Sourisse, President & CEO, Thales International.

Thales euronaval flash: source Author

Thales Partners Airbus in New Study Contract For French A321 MPA

The French Defence Procurement Agency (Direction Générale de l’Armement) has signed a contract with Airbus Defence and Space as prime contractor, in partnership with Thales, for a risk-assessment study of its future maritime patrol aircraft programme-the A321 MPA. This 24-month contract follows on from the architecture and feasibility study launched at the end of 2022.

“The A321 MPA (Maritime Patrol Aircraft) has all the assets to become a true flying frigate capable of responding to the wide range of missions entrusted to the French maritime patrol,” said Jean-Brice Dumont, Executive Vice President, Head of Air Power at Airbus Defence and Space. “Airbus offers a sovereign solution that provides the autonomy, availability and reliability required to contribute to the oceanic component of the nuclear deterrence.”

The aim of this new definition study and risk-assessment contract is to prepare for the development and production launch of the maritime patrol aircraft programme at the end of 2026. This study will enable the initial results of the architecture study to be taken further, in order to refine the economic and industrial conditions for carrying out the programme, to guide the technical choices of the systems to be integrated on the aircraft, and to carry out the first wind-tunnel tests.

The A321 MPA is a militarised version of the Airbus A321XLR, designed to meet all the operational requirements of the French Navy, mainly in anti-submarine and anti-ship warfare, from low to high intensity, as well as intelligence gathering. The aim is to have a new aircraft to replace the fleet of Atlantique-2 operated by the French Navy from the Lann-Bihoué (France) naval air base by the 2030-2040 timeframe.

The A321 MPA will have a long-range and high-manoeuvrability capability, including at low altitude. The aircraft will be equipped with a full range of sensors specific to maritime patrol aircraft, to which Thales is a major contributor: latest-generation radar with active antennas; an acoustic system using passive and active sonar buoys; electronic and electro-optical warfare systems; magnetic anomaly detection (MAD), and self-protection systems.

It will also carry communications systems, including satellite communications, as well as the weapons needed for anti-submarine and anti-ship warfare, comprising torpedoes and the future anti-ship missile (FMAN). The aircraft’s large cargo bay and the open architecture of its mission system give it a great capacity to evolve throughout its lifecycle to meet the emergence of new threats.

The extraordinary success of the A320 family – the world’s best-selling single-aisle aircraft with more than 10,000 aircraft in service and more than 300 million flight hours – ensures that the A321 MPA has long proven availability, reliability and low maintenance costs.

Airbus Defence and Space has long experience in converting commercial aircraft into military aircraft, culminating in the success of the A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) , which has more than 90 percent of the world market (excluding the United States). The company also has extensive expertise in the integration of sensors and mission systems on the P3, C295 and CN235 aircraft, with more than 170 aircraft in service in various maritime patrol and surveillance configurations.

North Korea’s Nuclear Program and Future Aspects

2

By: Aasi Ansari, Research Analyst, GSDN

North Korean President Kim Jong Un in front of an ICBM: source Internet

In the last decade, North-Korea has boosted the mass production of conventional and nuclear missiles, which have become a matter of serious concern to the international community as it not only threatens the Korean Peninsula but also other countries such as Japannand the United States. This has become a big issue especially after IAEA found North Korea in non-compliance with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which North Korea withdrew from in 2013.

For more than three decades, the ROK government and relevant countries have made intensive efforts to resolve this issue. Although, North Korea has declared that their nation has entered the point where there is no turning back from becoming a nuclear superpower. South Korea and U.S. is trying their best to bring North Korea to the agreement of “the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”

History

North Korea’s Nuclear program started near 1960s, when the Soviet Union assisted North Korea with the construction of Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center and in 1970s they got access to Plutonium by learning the reprocessing technology from the Soviet Union. After that, North Korea ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In January 1992, both North and South Korea signed a Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, under which both countries agreed to never test and use nuclear material for non-peaceful purposes. Both countries also agreed to mutual inspections for verification, but they were never able to reach an agreement on implementation.

However, North Korea was not loyal to the treaty. Later in 1992, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised concerns about the country’s plutonium stockpiles. North Korea refused to cooperate with IAEA in order to clarify any discrepancy, due to which in 1993, IAEA declared that North Korea was in non-compliance with its NPT and might be using the nuclear grade Plutonium for non-civilian purposes. After two decades, North Korea formally declared the Joint Declaration void in January 2013.

In 1994 the leaders of U.S. and North Korea made an agreement to stop their Plutonium development program in exchange of 2 light water reactor for energy production. But this agreement broke in the Bush administration due to illicit uranium enrichment program found in North Korea, due to which U.S. decided to stop the energy deal with North Korea. After few years in 2003, North Korea withdrew from the NPT and restart nuclear activities.

After the withdrawal of North Korea from NPT, the six-party talks were arranged with both the Koreas, Russia, China, Japan, and the United States. In September 2005, the six party talks had its major success by making North Korea agree to abandon its nuclear weapons activities and return to the NPT. Under the 2005’s the six party talks agreement, North Korea disabled its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon in 2007 and allowed IAEA inspectors into the country and North Korea received oil in return. However, due to increased tensions, North Korea again declared in April 2009 that it would no longer be bound by agreement of the six party talks.

North-Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal

It is estimated that as of 2024, North Korea has 50 warheads. The has the stockpile of nearly 70-90 nuclear material for weapon production. It is also estimated that they have around 280-1500 kg of highly enriched uranium and 60-80 kg of nuclear grade Plutonium. Although, because of the clandestine nature of the North Korean, these estimation is highly uncertain due to lack of information on the nuclear material enrichment facilities. Therefore, nothing can be said for sure.

According to the experts, North Korea’s 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests likely used plutonium because by that time North Korea already had enough Plutonium to use in the weapon. After announcing the Joint Declaration void in January 2013, North Korea restarted its Yongbyon 5MWe Reactor for plutonium production in April 2013 and declared that reactor is ‘fully operational’ by the end of August 2015. This reactor is capable of producing 6 kg of weapon grade plutonium per year. It has been confirmed by the satellite images that the production activities have increased.

North Korea has the ability to produce the weapon grade Uranium by using gas centrifuge technology. North-Korea has declared only one uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon enrichment facility estimated to have 4000 centrifuge. Although, it can be predicted from the satellite images that North Korea has extended around 1000 more centrifuges. It is believed that North-Korea might have constructed second enrichment facilities in Kangson. Because of which, in 2022, United Nations listed Kangson as a “suspected clandestine uranium enrichment facility.”

Missile technology of North-Korea

North Korea’s started its ballistic missile program in the late 1970s and early 1980s, by reverse-engineering the acquired Soviet Scud-type missiles from Egypt. Besides land based ballistic missiles, North Korea has successfully tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pukguksong-1. In addition to this, North Korea also has a Space Launch Vehicle, the Unha, which based on technology of their ballistic missiles. North Korea have also tested its first hypersonic missile in September 2021, the Hwasong-8, which possess a big challenge to missile defense systems due to their speed and maneuverability. However, North Korea is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

In 2006, North Korea did their first underground nuclear testing, estimated around 1-2 kilotons of explosion yield. After the first test in 2006, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1718, enacting a variety of multilateral sanctions and demanding that Pyongyang return to the NPT and halt its nuclear weapons activities. They tested total seven of short, medium and long range ballistic missiles, between 2006 and 2017. However, North Korea performed more than seventy ballistic and cruise missile tests by the end of 2022. This was continued by North Korea in 2023 and 2024, with ICBMs caring maximum range of 15000 km. These tests triggered condemnation from the countries such as United States, United Nations, Japan, and South Korea.

North Korea has not only been making missiles but have been a big part of the global missile trade. They are one of the largest supplier of missiles in the East-Asian and West-Asian countries, including Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen. North Korea has also helped Syria to build an undeclared nuclear reactor, which was destroyed by Israeli airstrike in 2007, while the reactor was still under construction. North Korea also allegedly attempted to sell graphite rods to Syria in 2012.However, missile export of North Korea has reduced significantly due to sanctions from U.S. and U.N. on the bases of resent missile development in North-Korea.

Future prospects

In January 2016, North Korea declared its nuclear doctrine that they would not use nuclear weapons first in a conflict unless its sovereignty was under direct threat and committed to “strive for the global denuclearization.” However, in September 2022, North Korea updated its nuclear doctrine in which they enumerated the circumstances under which North Korea would use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. North Korea considered some scenarios, such as “taking the initiative in war” and preempting a “fatal military attack against important strategic objects.” This new nuclear doctrine also stated that the nation’s leader, Kim Jong Un has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons and a nuclear strike will be conducted automatically if the country’s leadership is targeted.

Kim Jong Un has declared that North-Korea will continue mass production of ICBMs with nuclear payloads to give their country a “quick nuclear counterstrike” capability. Kim gave the reasoning for the mass production of ICBMs as a necessary action to counter South Korea’s “preparations for war” and “worrying military moves” by the United States and other hostile forces targeting North Korea. Kim’s announcement for the mass production of missiles came after South Korea updated the five-year defence plans specifically designed to counter the threat from Pyongyang’s nuclear missiles. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol also announced the creation of a new drone unit after North Korean unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) flew into South Korean airspace.

The future of North Korea has always been a part of big concern specially to U.S. and South Korea. The willingness of North Korea to denuclearize has long been questioned because it views its nuclear deterrent as necessary to protect the Kim regime and the state. Kim Jong Un said that the country’s status as a nuclear weapons state “has now become irreversible” and that there will “never be any declaration of giving up our nukes or denuclearization” in future negotiations.

Conclusion

Complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula might never be possible. Considering North-Korea has already declared that their nation has entered the point where there is no turning back from becoming a nuclear power. North Korea also has support from Russia including reprocessing technology, missiles technology and space research. North Korea considers United States as one of the biggest threats to the Kim regime and to the state safety. South Korea playing a big part against North Korea’s nuclear issue has worsened the relations between South Korea and North Korea. Which makes it even hard for North Korea to consider complying with the U.S. and to restart nuclear talks.

South-Korea not only trying their best to denuclearize North-Korea because they are the neighbouring country but also because it is causing friction with United States. The ROK government aims to establish sustainable peace regime through dialogue and diplomacy. Furthermore, as a key stakeholder in the North Korean nuclear issue, the ROK will lead international cooperation to create a strategic environment that leaves North Korea no option but to return to the path of denuclearization.

Why DeepSeek isn’t Surprising for those who Understand China Well?

3

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

DeepSeek logo: source Internet

As the new millennium progressed in the year 2000, whilst the world at large was celebrating this historic year which few witness in their lifetime and the failure of the much-touted Y2K bug, further added relief and joy to the millennium revellers. In the offices of the Chinese Ministry of Education on the Xizhimenwai Street of Beijing and the Ministry of Science & Technology located on Fuxing Road, Beijing there was a growing worry about lesser Doctorates (PhD) in Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics (STEM) that China was producing in contrast to USA.

For, in that year China produced 9038 PhDs in STEM while USA was the global pole leader in this field having produced 18,289 PhDs in STEM.

Both the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Science and Technology knew that if China had to make technological strides than more PhDs in STEM were required as they were the pivots in technology development and Research & Development (R&D).

After lot of brain-storming and studying various global models, China launched the “Young Thousand Talents Program” in 2007. The results of this decision were quick to be seen and in 2010, China surpassed USA in the number of PhDs in STEM, with China producing 34,801 STEM Doctorates that year while USA produced 26,076.

In 2019, China produced 49,498 PhDs in STEM and in the same year USA produced 33,759 and India had 700 plus STEM PhDs. Of these 700 plus Indian STEM PhDs, 70% have renounced their Indian citizenship and have migrated to foreign countries.

Buoyed by the unprecedented success of the “Young Thousand Talents Program”, China launched the “National High-end Foreign Experts Recruitment Plan” on March 17, 2020 to further hone up their technological prowess and by this year end, China is projected to produce 77,179 PhDs in STEM in comparison to USA’s 39,959.

As the Doctorates in STEM in China kept on increasing, so did their numbers of world-leading scientists. A world-leading scientist is one who has published research papers in the world’s top scientific journals.

Sample the period 2020-2024 for the number of world-leading scientists in both China and USA. In 2020, USA had 36,959 world-leading scientists while China was almost half of that number at 18,805. In 2024, China became the global leader in the world-leading scientists with 32,511 and the USA had 31,781.

Currently, China is the global leader in 37 out of 44 critical technologies while the USA leads in the balance seven critical technologies.

Clearly, China built the conducive scientific temperament for it to be the global leader in technology today. This certainly was not done in one day and as is visible from the above stated facts and figures, the process started a quarter of a century back, despite USA being the global leader in technology then.

In the field of technological advancements China proved their famous proverb apt “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now”. And China started their technological superiority journey in right earnest in 2000.

So, when DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial intelligence software that develops open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) was announced on January 20, 2025, it was no surprise to those who understood China well, for it was the product of investments in technology that China had started in 2000 and the result of strong educational fundamentals espoused by Mao Zedong in 1949.

After China was devastated by a civil war that ended in 1949, the literacy rate in China was just between 20-40%. The communist party on taking over power made education as one of its foremost priorities and through both formal schooling and literacy programmes was able to achieve school enrolment getting tripled, secondary school enrolment increasing by a factor of 8.5 and college enrolment quadrupling in the first sixteen years, thus laying a strong bedrock for education.

The fact that the date of announcement of DeepSeek on January 20, 2025 on the same day as of the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of USA was no coincidence but a well-planned strategy to show China’s biggest rival that it meant business.

A week later, President Donald Trump reacted by terming DeepSeek as a “Wake-up Call” as during the first week of its launch, DeepSeek surged to become the most downloaded free application displacing OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google termed the launch of DeepSeek as a turning point in the global AI race.

The shares of US-based Nvidia whose chips are used for making of ChatGPT tanked 17%, suffering a loss of over US$ 1 trillion since the launch of DeepSeek. Clearly, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom which was ignited by ChatGPT’s release on November 30, 2022 had Nvidia and OpenAI laughing all the way to the bank, besides giving USA the pole position in AI.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement on September 04, 2017 that the nation leading in AI will be the ruler of the world, had the USA in that important driver’s seat for a brief period of 26 months till DeepSeek shattered the American dream-run in AI last month.

Costing a mere US$ 5.76 million to create DeepSeek, at one-tenth the cost that made ChatGPT, Hangzhou DeepSeek AI Technology Research Company Limited, the owners of DeepSeek is a Hangzhou-based startup founded in China in July 2023.

Using open-source approach the team that created DeepSeek has 50% of its members born after 1995 and 75% of its members born after 1990. Clearly, the young talent of China shocked the world in AI which is a testament of the technology-driven initiatives launched by China since 2000.  

DeepSeek is an apt example of open collaboration dovetailing the successful integration of technology, information, capital and talent as DeepSeek using open-source approach collaborated with Sugon and Tencent Cloud, already well-established Chinese information technology companies in technology development, application, implementation and expansion. The words of Thomas Malone hold true “True innovation will come not from new technologies but from new ways of collaboration”. And, DeepSeek did exactly that.

The words of US President Donald Trump terming DeepSeek as a wake-up call are of immense importance to the six littoral nations of the South China Sea ie Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, apart from India and USA as China is to wage three wars in the next one decade on Taiwan in 2027, Spratly Islands in 2029 and a joint two-front war with Pakistan on India in 2035 in which AI will play a very significant role in China’s futuristic wars which will involve all the eight nations listed above at some point or the other in next one decade.

It is important to remember that the future wars will be fought using modern technology and not the past supremacy in culture or civilization.

A case in point of use of modern technology in modern warfare is when Hamas attacked Israel on October 07, 2023 at 6.30 am. For the next 20 minutes, the electromagnetic spectrum of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) was jammed. As result of which, the Israeli military commanders were not able to communicate with each other and this gave the crucial first-mover advantage to Israel and they were successful in taking 251 Israelis as hostages. The electromagnetic spectrum was jammed by China for Hamas and the Israel-Hamas War which ended on January 19, 2025 resulted in defeat for the IDF which is evident by the fact that the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and its Southern Army Commander Major General Yaron Finkleman resigned on January 21, 2025.

The same IDF which had defeated a 11-nation coalition force during the 19-day Yom Kippur War of 1973 had to seek a ceasefire with both the Hamas and Hezbollah on January 19, 2025 and November 27, 2024 respectively ending the 15-month war with Hamas and the 60-day war with Hezbollah, as one of the pivotal factors was the Israeli hostages with Hamas and there was mounting pressure from the majority of the Israeli citizens to get the hostages released.

There is no runner-up in a war and with technology forming a very important edge in modern warfare, the choice rests with each nation that is to go to war with China in the next one decade.

China needs to be understood well. For those who understand China well, will be better prepared to tackle it when the balloon goes up (an army slang meaning commencement of a war) and not be surprised when softwares like DeepSeek are launched.

Fifth Generation Air Warfare to heat-up Bengaluru Skies as Russia debuts Su-57 at Aero India

0

By: Suman Sharma

Su-57: source Internet

Expected to be the showstopper at this year’s Aero India, after the US Air Force (USAF)’s F-35 Lightening II’s India debut in 2023, Russia is all set to launch its fifth-generation fighter, the Su-57 Felon, developed by Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi in India at the upcoming 15th edition of the biennial airshow-Aero India, from Feb 10-14, 2025 at Yelahanka, Bengaluru. India is the second country for the Felon to debut in after China, where it flew for the first time at the Chinese airshow in Zhuhai last November.

Though the USAF F-35 Lightning II will be on static display, unlike the Felon, the clear signalling is not lost on the strategic community about America’s last-minute decision to send its stealth fifth generation fighter, which enthralled viewers during Aero India-2023, through its aerial display and awe-inspiring manoeuvres.

Both US President Donald J Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are reported to visit India this year and the Indian Air Force (IAF) has had a long pending RFP (request for proposal) for its 114 MRFA (multi-role fighter aircraft) deal valued at US$ 20 billion, still to be announced. The F-35 Lightening’s return to the airshow this year is also timed with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit, after a few days.

It maybe noted that India had initially agreed to co-develop its own fifth generation stealth fighter jet along with Russia, under a 2007 project named PAKFA-FGFA, which got derailed in 2018, but the Russian side maintains that the PAKFA-FGFA is only delayed and might get revived soon.

Fifth Generation Fighters

Fifth-generation fighter jets boast advanced capabilities, including stealth, super-cruise, and super-manoeuvrability. They also offer superior precision strike capability, speed, agility, and situational awareness. While the Su-57 is a twin-engine aircraft, the F-35 is a single-engine fighter. Stealth is the main feature of a fifth-generation fighter, which is a technology enabling radar evading feature to reduce detection.  Advanced avionics in a fifth generation comprise an integrated sensor fusion for superior situational awareness. Their super-cruise capability ensures a sustained supersonic flight without afterburners. The fifth-generation fighters are capable of network-centric warfare, meaning they have seamless data sharing with other assets in a real-time multirole environment. They excel in air-to-air, air-to-ground and electronic warfare missions.

India is also working on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) gave its approval to the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) for the project in 2023, while the financial sanction came only in 2024. The first prototype is expected to have its debut flight by 2028, according to DRDO sources.

It may be noted that India’s fighter fleet has declined to 29.5 squadrons, well below the sanctioned strength of 42.

The only fifth generation stealth fighters in the world, which are operational are the American F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lightening II, both developed by Lockheed Martin and in service in the USAF, the Russian Su-57 Felon, which has been part of operations in Syria and Ukraine and the Chinese Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’.

While those under development are Russian Su-75 ‘Çheckmate’, Shenyang FC-31 ‘Gyrfalcon’, the Chinese twin-engine, multi-role fifth generation stealth fighter, India’s AMCA, Tai TF Kaan, the twin-engine, multi-role fifth generation fighter being developed by the Turkish Aerospace Industries, Mitshubishi F-X-the sixth-generation stealth fighter being developed for the Japan Air Self-Defence Force, and the Korean KAI KF-21 Boramae programme.

F-35

The single-engine, single-seat F-35 is essentially being sold to the United States’ NATO allies, although non-NATO allies Israel, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore also operate it, while Switzerland, which is also non-NATO, is considering an F-35 purchase. Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, the fifth-generation fighter is co-developed in partnership by eight countries and presently flown by 14 air forces and navies worldwide.

F-35: source Internet

F-35’s debut in India at the 2023 edition of Aero India, according to the US Embassy was not about Foreign Military Sales; but more about the closeness of a defence partnership of two maritime democracies with great air power, naval power and land power collaborating to provide deterrence and security across the region.

The F-35’s superior stealth design comes with internal weapons bays, radar-absorbent materials, and advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. The Lightening II is reportedly less manoeuvrable, with no thrust-vectoring, but still agile due to its advanced flight control systems. The F-35’s AN/APG-81 AESA radar is one of the most advanced in the world, with superior target tracking and electronic warfare capabilities. The fighter has a longer operational range of 1,700 plus kilometres due to its efficient fuel management. The weapons package comprises AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9X Sidewinder, and precision-guided bombs, all designed for stealth carriage. The F-35 is a multi-role stealth fighter focused on strike missions, intelligence gathering, and electronic warfare.

Su-57 Felon

The Su-57 is a twin-engine stealth fighter aircraft, presently operational in just the Russian Airforce. The two engines are typically identified as Saturn AL-41F1 afterburning turbofan engines. It is a more air-superiority-focused fighter with ground-attack capabilities.

The Felon is highly manoeuvrable with 3D thrust-vectoring engines, making it superior in close-range dogfights. The jet is faster at Mach 2+ and has a combat range of ~1,500 km (without refuelling). The Su-57 uses a mix of beyond-visual-range missiles like the R-77M and R-37M, which has very long-range capabilities. The N036 Belka AESA radar has multiple arrays, providing good situational awareness.

AMCA

The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is India’s upcoming fifth-generation stealth fighter being developed by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) and DRDO. It aims to rival other fifth-gen fighters like the F-35, Su-57, and J-20 while incorporating cutting-edge technologies. The fighter is expected to roll out for trials by 2028.

This fifth-generation, twin-engine, multirole, low-observable fighter is due to have a maximum take- off weight in the 25-tonne category, and includes a number of fifth-generation features including Diverterless Super-sonic Inlets (DSIs), serpentine intakes an internal weapons bay, and thrust vectoring engines. At present, the AMCA still in the design phase.

The Diamond-shaped AMCA has a blended wing-body structure for reduced radar signature. It is supposed to be incorporated with a low radar cross-section (RCS) with stealth shaping and radar-absorbent materials (RAM). It is expected to achieve Mach 2+ speed. The twin-engine configuration is for a high thrust-to-weight ratio and enhanced combat range of 1,500 km+ (extendable with aerial refuelling). The AMCA will be equipped with AI-powered avionics for automation and reduced pilot workload. The weapons package would comprise Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles: Astra Mk-2, Astra Mk-3, Astra Mk-1, Python-5, precision-guided munitions, like smart bombs and air-to-ground missiles. AMCA will be India’s first stealth fighter, designed to balance stealth, manoeuvrability, and sensor fusion.

This year’s event will also showcase Boeing’s KC-135 Stratotanker refuelling aircraft and Embraer’s C-390 transport aircraft, along with other exciting highlights.

Will SQUAD be Successful in Countering China?

0

By: Rishya Dharmani, Research Analyst, GSDN

Foreign Ministers of the SQUAD nations on May 02, 2024: source Internet

The Biden administration had proposed SQUAD to bolster peace, mutual deterrence and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific. The US Secretary of Defence, Llyod George said, “We have chartered an ambitious course to advance that vision together” at the sidelines of the April 2024 meeting of Defence Ministers – Richard Marles (Australia), Kihara Minoru (Japan), Gilberto Teodoro (Philippines) and Lloyd Austin (US) in the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Hawaii. The seeds for this grouping were sown in the preliminary meeting of defence ministers in the 2023 Shangri La Dialogue. Later, joint maritime patrols in the hotly contested South China Sea (SCS), followed by a trilateral summit of American, Japanese and Phillipino leaders, further cemented this partnership.

This institutionalisation of SQUAD comes at the hills of regime change in the Philippines from pursuing a passivist policy towards China towards the current term of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s shift towards collaborating with the US to strengthen ‘integrated deterrence’ in the South China Sea (SCS). Further, Australia, in recent years, has also shed its reticence in irking China of not entering into strategic partnerships with others in the region. Japan also looks to wean away from its pacifist constitution. The other major player in the region, India, forms QUAD with the US, Japan and Australia, but its insistence on ‘strategic autonomy’ while keeping independent ties with Russia and also resisting a more militaristic colour to this union has prevented QUAD from achieving strategic coherence and utility against formidable Chinese intransigence.

As a part of the larger trend of transitioning beyond traditional foreign policy tools, the Indo-Pacific has been the incubator of minilateral associations as the site of hot strategic competition. The growing intersection of economic, military, political, and cultural conflicts within and outside the region’s states has been a shot in the arm for such rebalancing strategies. Initiatives like QUAD, US-Republic of Korea-Japan Trilateral, AUKUS, and SQUAD, all grapple with traditional and non-traditional currencies of power politics. Both China and the US are spearheading activist diplomatic regimens to woo countries to broaden their network of friendly and cooperative states. Whether to funnel strategic rivalry by perusing ‘hard’ politics or pursue ‘human security’ and ‘soft’ issues (Singapore-Indonesia-Malaysia Malacca Straits Patrol) – minilateral initiatives in Indo-Pacific are blurring boundaries in strategic wargaming.

QUAD to SQUAD à a mere strategic dribble or a concrete gameplan?

Chinese commentators have seen SQUAD as a part of the declining hegemon’s (US) last-ditch attempt to ‘contain’ an inevitable Chinese ascendancy. The Dragon has accused the US of fielding proxies like the Philippines to provoke its “Ukrainization”. They claim that the United States is manipulating the Philippines and provoking it against China. This ‘cold war mentality’ will entrench regional divisions and mistrust, complicating the security atmosphere even more. This will force states to take sides and pose challenges to cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries. This point is of relevance as China-ASEAN trade has increased four times since 2019. Furthermore, the Regional Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) backed by China has been touted as the world’s biggest security pact by Al Jazeera, covering 30% of the global population and economy. This raises doubts about the efficacy of the strategic alignment of US-led groups with SCS littoral states.

But the era of simplistic geopolitical games is over as the age of alliances has eclipsed countries, especially from the Global South, valuing the strategic depth accruing from issue-based ad hoc coalitions. As Kissinger famously opined that ‘America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests’ – this maxim underscores the need for adaptation to constantly changing geopolitical alignments. SQUAD is a much more focused attempt than QUAD to build pressure on China to temper its predatory attitude in SCS, especially the Taiwan Straits. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has already reasoned in the Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2022, that QUAD is not Asian NATO and simply about “four countries who have common interests, common values, (a) great deal of comfort, who happen to be located in the four corners of the Indo Pacific”. This counterbalance will perhaps be much more effective with replacement of a reluctant India with Philippines, an ally of United States, having a Visiting Forces Agreement with Australia and negotiating Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan.

SQUAD, by aiming for greater military interoperability and strategic coordination, is a step forward from QUAD. Aiming to strengthen the joint response to a wide variety of traditional and non-traditional threats, SQUAD is a part of the “lattice-like” security architecture that the US has been cultivating in recent years. Moving away from an unpopular, costly and strategically dubious collective defence posture for sustaining a favourable balance of power, the United States, as the preeminent power, is now seeking mutual plurilateral partnerships. The greater shift from grand alliances to minilaterals underscores the need to counter a limited but imminent spectrum of threats in flexible and improvised groupings.

Informalism in Indo-Pacific diplomacy  

With its roots in off-the-table diplomatic manoeuvres, the SQUAD needs to institutionalise and promise actionable partnership through regular punitive and preventive joint patrols in the South China Sea and across the Pacific, coordinated intelligence-sharing and maritime security cooperation, and modernisation and interoperability of partners’ defence systems. It needs to score a bullseye in its counter plans to Chinese aggression and hybrid grey zone warfare, which have seriously jeopardised regional security and cooperation. China smartly nibbles at others’ territory by playing the victim and enmeshing its target in disadvantageous bilateral negotiations, but with mechanisms like ASEAN and QUAD, South East Asian states can proffer a multilateral response to the Dragon’s increasingly threatening behaviour. Such institutionalised cooperative platforms signal to China that its targets are not alone and that it can be subjected to military and economic countermeasures.

However, there are problems with this interpretation of SQUAD for two reasons. First, SQUAD is not Asian NATO – an idea dumped by all relevant stakeholders but one that irks China. A collective defence system in South East Asia is not even a remote possibility because even if China is recognised as a common threat – the perception of the nature of its irredentism differs between Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and others. Furthermore, despite China’s economic coercion by weaponising its supply chain dominance, surveillance infiltration, and trade dumping – South East Asian states are so deeply integrated and have benefitted from RCEP and bilateral arrangements with China that they will ponder twice before directly standing up to it. It is a chicken and egg situation of whether to float a militarised forum to respond to already prominent Chinese abrasions while also risking an enraged China.

Deep Chinese pockets have successfully orchestrated its ‘dual circulation’ strategy in which its manufacturing exports-driven economy earns foreign exchange by becoming the factory of the world and also caters to booming domestic demand. This has been aided by piloting gargantuan projects, massive in imagination and investments, all across the world to capture the markets and minds of the larger world, especially the Global South. Initiatives like the Global Civilisation Initiative are part of China’s attempt to replace the cultural industry of American hegemony and replace it with its own. It remains to be seen if SQUAD can provide real deterrence beyond the reputational deterrence of standing against a ‘quartet of chaos’ of autocracies.

Way Forward

An assessment of Chinese strategic culture is aptly summed by recalling an observation of its founding father, Mao Zedong, that power flows from the barrel of a gun. All revisionist powers like China are hardwired to maniacally try to bridge their strategic insecurities in the balance with the current superpower. Military capabilities and economic resourcefulness are the two rules of the game, with its theatre, the Indo-Pacific, transforming into a textbook case of Mandala dynamics. India already has its playbook astutely described by master strategician Kautilya. Guided by new age wisdom of eschewing war by pursuing ‘dialogue and diplomacy’, India has done well to shun the militaristic avatar of QUAD and by refusing to play the Western proxy. By retaining its value as an autonomous swing state, India has preserved sufficient systemic space for a cold war between the ‘Alliance of Democracies’ and ‘Eurasian Entente’ to cement.

China, meanwhile, has been pursuing its own brand of ‘value-based’ minilateralism against the ‘cold war mentality’ of block politics. It insists on a Global South and Asian solidarity against the erstwhile colonial and imperialist powers. It poses a ‘common future for mankind’ under the benign Chinese umbrella. This is a reproduction of the 1990s talk shop of ‘Peaceful Rise’ where Beijing successfully managed to use multilateral arrangements of liberal internationalism like WTO to their full potential to be the indisputable challenger state to the US. As is the fundamental tenet under Hegemonic Stability Theory, a rising power invariably faces off with the current one. China’s claim to power has been to promote ‘common prosperity’, and yet its actions within and outside its borders suggest otherwise.

As for SQUAD itself, someone has to stand up and build resilience and guarantee mutuality in acknowledging and addressing a common strategic irritant. Chinese mouthpiece Global Times has regularly lambasted the idea of Asian NATO, but China itself is pushing South East Asia into a Western embrace by failing to honour international laws. It refused to accept the 2015 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China Sea dispute and recently scuttled an attempt by ASEAN to have a voluntary code of conduct for non-confrontational and non-interventionist open and free navigation. It has turned SCS and the broader Indo-Pacific into a playground for great power showdown. On the contrary, the continuous intrusion of the United States, an extra-regional alien power, in Asian subregions has delegitimised existing regional security architectures like ASEAN, East Asia Summit and even SAARC to reproduce dependencies of client states on superpowers. Such western interventions have precluded the natural emergence of an autonomous regional balance of power within Asia and raked up insecurities for Russia and China.

The spectrum of offensive tactics followed by China just manages to remain actions short of provoking a full-scale war – but it should be mindful that this rapidly changing, volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world poses newer definitions and strategic thresholds. Unlike conventional war, the escalation ladder in grey zone kinetic warfare (as implemented by China) does not have a clear chain. All modern wars are wars of attrition, with even so-called major powers being embarrassed into the ‘Afghanistan Trap’ of never-ending conflicts with smaller and ‘insignificant’ states. China’s possible future misadventure in Taiwan can learn lessons from Iraq (US) and Ukraine (Russia).

In Senkakau Paradox, Michael E. O’Hanlon poses the danger of small states acquiring magnified and bloated perceptions in the balance of power politics and provoking war – a similar danger is faced in the South China Sea where small (and some artificial islands) risk igniting this region. In contrast, he proposes an ‘integrated defence’ of a mix of mild military reprisals and economic sanctions to deter the threat actors. Such measures are already in place – Mineral Security Partnership, IPEF, iCET etc. However, the deployment of geoeconomic tools is a dicey proposition as it can further push the adversary into evolving alternative and independent architectures like the proposed BRICS currency against the weaponisation of SWIFT and sanctions regimes by Euro-Atlantic countries.

An opposite reading would suggest that small states have very often been ignored and trampled in the interstate system. In the Indo-Pacific itself, the Pacific Islands are mentioned as an afterthought, and their existential concerns of being drowned by rising sea levels due to climate change are dismissed as ‘low politics’ matters. The superpowers only remember them for their strategic locales while eyeing their rich mineral resources. Indo-Pacific remains a unique stage of enactment of geopolitical rivalries as non-state actors are not major players, unlike in the Gulf, where Houthis have wreaked havoc. In this sense, traditional IR models of statism and power politics still seem to apply and offer prescriptive models for Asian hawks and doves.

Ads Blocker Image Powered by Code Help Pro

Ads Blocker Detected!!!

We have detected that you are using extensions to block ads. Please support us by disabling these ads blocker.

Powered By
Best Wordpress Adblock Detecting Plugin | CHP Adblock