By: Megha Mittal, Research Analyst, GSDN

In 21^st Century, it has become increasingly evident that global stage is shifting its power towards the East. The way China is trying to expand its influence across Asia has drawn significant attention, particularly in the region of South Asia, where region’s complex geopolitical landscape is undergoing through a vast transformation. Bangladesh is one of major key player of this region being the second largest economy of South Asia.

The relationship of Bangladesh–China can be traced back from the liberation of Bangladesh when China has recognized the state of Bangladesh and both the nations started to maintain the diplomatic relations in 1975. This relation reaches its zenith in 2006 when China left India behind and became the largest trading partner of Bangladesh despite the fact that both the nations do not share the territorial borders.

The historical ties between the two nations go beyond official diplomatic relations. Cultural and commercial connections have existed since antiquity, when trade between China and South Asia was enabled by the Silk Road. This long history fosters cultural affinities that improve contemporary diplomatic relations particularly in the wake of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s October 2016 visit to Bangladesh.

Economic Entanglement

Economic cooperation has been the main driver of relations between Bangladesh and China. For 13 years running, China has been Bangladesh’s biggest trading partner. Bangladesh has increased its level of interaction with China since 2017. China is now Bangladesh’s biggest trading partner, with over US$ 40 billion in Chinese investments. Over US$ 9.75 billion have been invested by China in transit projects in Bangladesh, including current projects like the Dasher Kandi Sewerage Treatment Plant, Bangabandhu Tunnel, and Padma Bridge Rail Link. The growth of infrastructure, economic collaboration, and general bilateral ties between China and Bangladesh have all benefited greatly from these events. Beijing’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region has grown as a result of its collaboration with Bangladesh.

With a total flow of US$ 940 million in the fiscal year 2021–2022, China has also emerged as Bangladesh’s top source of foreign direct investment (FDI). With 104 investors working in eight export-processing zones, it has also been recognised as the leading foreign investor in Bangladesh in 2022. The COVID-19 epidemic presented significant obstacles, yet bilateral trade between the two nations increased by an astounding 58% in the preceding year, demonstrating the robustness of their trading relationship.

Enhanced Defence Collaboration

Over the past five years, Bangladesh and China have increased their military cooperation and increased transparency. After Pakistan, Bangladesh has emerged as China’s second-biggest buyer of weaponry, receiving almost 17% of China’s military exports between 2016 and 2020. The two nations’ defence cooperation has grown to include joint defence production as well as military personnel training in China.

In order to improve its naval capabilities, Bangladesh purchased submarines from China in 2016 despite prior problems with defence hardware supplied by China. Bangladesh’s first submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, was officially opened in Cox’s Bazar by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in March 2023. Built for USD $1.2 billion, the facility can house multiple warships and six submarines. It was built by China. As of right now, two Chinese-built submarines are docked in this naval base.

According to defence strategists, Bangladesh will benefit from its growing military alliance with China, which will also put pressure on India. According to these observers, China’s military actions in Bangladesh, including the possible missile station, constitute psychological warfare against India and could cause political changes at home and the emergence of pro-China organisations there. Although the defence cooperation is within their sovereign rights, some analysts worry that China’s efforts could go too far and affect the dynamics of the area. To further strengthen bilateral military cooperation, China has signed a contract to supply the Bangladesh Air Force with 23 Hongdu K-8W intermediate training planes.

Strategic Balancing Act

The portrayal of China as a “friend for attaining development” and India as a “political friend” captures the nuanced stance that Bangladesh has tried to uphold. As international tensions increase and commercial interests entwine with internal politics, Bangladesh may find it more challenging to maintain this separation and make difficult strategic decisions.
The Indo-Pacific region has also seen a rise in geopolitical tensions during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Bangladesh is now directly involved in the US and Chinese foreign policy objectives. Bangladesh has received an invitation from the United States to become a partner in the Indo-Pacific Strategy. China has responded by threatening to sour relations with Bangladesh if it joins the Quad and by requesting that Bangladesh take part in its

“The Global Security Initiative and the Global Development Initiative”.

China encouraged non-interference in Bangladesh’s internal issues before to the country’s most recent elections, sending a subliminal message to the US and its allies to stay out of Bangladesh’s internal political matters. Similarly, during the high-level “2+2” foreign and defence ministry dialogue with the US last September, India expressed a nuanced view on Bangladesh’s democratic process. At a press conference following the dialogue, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra declared, “The election in Bangladesh is their internal matter, and it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future.”

Strategic Crossroads

Bangladesh’s delicate balance between India and China is coming up against more unanticipated obstacles. Although there have been benefits to growth of the state from economic collaboration with China, worries about debt dependency and strategic vulnerability have also been raised concerns. It is becoming more and more difficult for Bangladesh to retain its neutral position given the changing geopolitical conditions in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific area. The nation is juggling intricate matters such as water rights, economic integration, and regional security, which could strain ties with the two titans.

Bangladesh’s Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Muhammad A. Arafat, stated that the country owed over US$ 149.5 billion in external debt. These loans include hazards if they are not handled properly, even though they have funded important infrastructure projects. Bangladesh can learn from other nations’ experiences, such Sri Lanka, which had financial difficulties as a result of an over-reliance on Chinese loans.

The total value of bilateral commerce between China and Bangladesh is US$ 23 billion annually. Less than US$ 1 billion of the total trade comes from exports from Bangladesh to China; the great bulk comes from imports into Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserves, which are already fighting to survive the inflation brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war, are under pressure from the trade deficit with China. The government was compelled to reduce monthly imports from an average of over US$ 8 billion to less than US$ 5 billion in order to manage the strain on the foreign exchange reserve.

Bangladesh may need to review its foreign policy approach as it develops since finding the ideal balance between China and India may become more difficult to achieve. It might be more successful to take a more nuanced strategy that puts Bangladesh’s long-term interests first while keeping flexible, issue-based alignments. Bangladesh’s predicament and experience highlight the difficulties smaller countries face in areas controlled by rival powers. To successfully negotiate the treacherous seas of regional and global geopolitics in the twenty-first century, among other things, will need deft diplomacy, economic diversification, and a clear understanding of national interests.

Sheikh Hasina, the former prime minister of Bangladesh, wrapped off her formal visit to China in July 2024, a few weeks after spending June 21–22 in India, her nearest neighbour. For more last fifteen years, New Delhi has provided total political support to Hasina and her ruling Awami League, and diplomats in both China and India have been closely monitoring her travels.

With a massive group of 196 people, Hasina visited China accompanied by members of her cabinet, high ranking government officials, and influential businessmen.
The primary goal of Bangladesh’s visit was to obtain US$ 5 billion loan for budget support, primarily to restock the nation’s depleting foreign exchange reserves.

Prior to Hasina’s trip to China, government representatives from both countries bargained for several weeks over Bangladesh’s request for budget support in the amount of US$ 5 billion in Chinese yuan to relieve pressure on Dhaka’s foreign exchange reserves. Things did not, however, progress as anticipated. Bangladesh was looking for low-cost budget support, but China was interested in offering the money as a high-interest trade facility.

During Hasina’s visit to Beijing on July 8–10, nothing changed. Many government officials were expecting China to make a big statement on budget support. That being said, the PM of Bangladesh came back from China virtually broke. A financial support of one billion yuan, or around US$ 137 million, was announced by China.

Many analysts interpreted Hasina’s early return from the vacation home as an indication that she was unhappy with the results.
It was previously believed that Bangladesh had been able to keep its relations with China and India somewhat balanced. However, a lot of observers believe that the nation is no longer in that situation because Bangladesh is becoming much more interested in satisfying Indian demands. It’s possible that China reached the same conclusion.
From a geopolitical perspective, we are now more vulnerable to India. Because we have made a lot of decisions lately even though we are aware that China will not be thrilled,” Hossain stated. She further said, “We are not getting any scope to keep China under consideration [while] meeting India’s expectations.”

Conclusion

The Bangladesh-China relationship has come to represent larger regional dynamics as Bangladesh navigates the increasingly complicated geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Notably, with increasing economic cooperation between these two nations on trade and infrastructure, the Chinese are now being viewed as major players in the growth of Bangladesh. But such a solidifying relationship has also raised questions regarding future strategic dependencies and degradation of Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Bangladesh’s defence cooperation with China also underlines a careful balancing act that Dhaka must pursue between hostile powers. While military links between Bangladesh and China strengthen its defence, these also risk causing unrest in India, a neighbour, thereby further adding to regional security dynamics.
Domestic efforts continue to keep up the balance between China and India in Bangladesh’s pragmatic foreign policy.

Looking at geopolitics, increasing interdependence, and economic interests, it is going to be hard to keep this balance intact. The present tussle over the financial packages announced during Sheikh Hasina’s trip to China has shown just how tenuous this relationship stands today. Going ahead, Bangladesh will need to think through its strategic priorities with extra  care. It will have to make the required foreign policy fairly flexible and sophisticated in nature so that all these varied influences and interests are kept in due balance with a view to avoiding dependence on any particular power. As Bangladesh joins a more multipolar world community, the nation’s capability to preserve its strategic independence will be the factor determining its future place within it.

By: Srijan Sharma

Pakistan’s intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) probably the only intelligence organization in the world that enjoys limitless power or degree in every branch of state machinery in Pakistan.  Pakistan is currently on the verge of crisis with civil war threats looming all around. In such a scenario where Pakistan’s civilian leadership has failed, the military is now coming in the prime focus to rescuing Pakistan and Amid all these, Pakistan’s Army and ISI have played their cards by arresting ISI’s former Chief Faiz Hameed in old property case.

The Arrest and Political Gambling of ISI

Downfall episode of ISI’s one-time powerful boss Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed (Retd) is testament to the fact that ISI and Pakistan Army are setting an example, or to be more appropriate consequences of short-circuiting Pakistan’s deep state plans especially in country’s political and economic domains. Like General Zia-ul-Haq is credited for rise of Nawaz Sharif, Faiz was credited for Imran Khan’s rise. Setting political rise of Pakistan politician is straight experiment from Pakistan’s ISI playbook to keep the market democracy in practice and controlling the government from behind the doors.  However, when these political puppets go in defiance, they suffer either assassination or political coup.

The similar story happened with Nawaz Sharif when Parvez Musharaf took over and Imran Khan paid the price for steering the foreign policy wheels against the wishes of Pakistan Army and ISI especially those clandestine networks with the West. ISI’s gamble with Pakistan politics paints unfortunate picture as the Army not only puts state in an instable position but it too faces the dangers of strong divide within the forces. 

The assassination of Zia-ul-Haq in a mysterious plane crash, which still is a disputed issue, shows that the Army’s strongholds can be weakened from the inside when the Army gets divided into two groups, according to one of the conspiracy theories. Similarly, the present Pakistan Army Chief faces the threat of being targeted from within. The arrest of the former ISI chief also demonstrates General Asim Munir’s advanced deterrence within the ranks. But by this time, Pakistan Army’s gambling habit had made a long-lasting impact within the ranks in fueling their power ambitions and fragile egos, which sets them in a position to sometimes question the omnipresent powers of the Chief of Army Staff and the ISI Chief. The cracks within the Pakistan deep state show the fears of them creating a more complicated struggle that will severely impact civil-military relations in Pakistan, stoking another wave of fears of political instabilities.

The Omnipresence of ISI

When we closely pay attention to the working of ISI, we will see that there is no other prime intelligence agency other than ISI in Pakistan. ISI is responsible for both external and internal security and hence getting a wide range of area to exercise its power both inside and outside the state which essentially gives rise to a  sense of centralization of power to one authority and once a state’s authority or agency start enjoying wide powers without any limiting hand over it then the chances of that agency or authority being omnipresent in the state affairs will increase and might try to override political leadership decisions and exercise considerable amount of influence for their benefits.

The same notion of omnipresence applies in Pakistan. ISI as an omnipresent agency in Pakistan is a classic one as since decades. ISI had a major role to play in Pakistan politics, a major chunk of politics in Pakistan was governed by military rulers and one such ruler Zia-Ul Haq had extensively contributed to strengthening the ISI’s grip on Pakistan’s politics by suppressing the Pakistan’s Peoples Party and Benazir Bhutto (former PM of Pakistan). Zia-ul-Haq made ISI his yardstick to fulfil his political interest to remain in power and neutralize those who sought power in Pakistan politics.

Political Color and Internal and External Posture of ISI

Gradually as politics in Pakistan progresses and being the yardstick of many leaders ISI transformed itself from an intelligence agency to a political machine gun which can be used by various leaderships to capture the power and defeat any uprisings or possibility of counter capturing of power in Pakistan politics. All this has politically coloured the agency and created an unwritten charter for ISI to interfere or operate in politics and state affairs in the name of internal security and install friendly regimes in Pakistan. On the other hand, ISI’s external posture is mostly India centric.  To establish ISI’s role in Pakistan politics more concretely we need to look upon one prominent incident in Pakistan in the 1990s.

Mehran Bank Scandal

The Mehran Bank Scandal exposed the abuse of public funds by the military and intelligence agencies to manipulate political change in the country. The bank proved to be a hub for ISI and foreign intelligence agencies and politicians collaborated illegally with each other against other elected leaders. The prime objective of ISI through the Mehran Bank was to destabilise the government that was hostile to them (ISI) and establish a friendly government to ISI or leaders who favoured ISI’s interests.

Why ISI became overpowerful or jurisdiction less?

State’s Perspective

When we talk about intelligence agencies becoming supreme or limitless or discuss the cause behind the transformation of the intelligence agency to a supreme state authority then somewhere in the loop the state itself is responsible for making it or its failure to cap the intelligence agency powers and absenting the “Power from above” concept or any governing authority/ Demarcations of duties which limits their power or limits them from going beyond their jurisdiction.  Why other intelligence agencies especially those of West enjoys limited authority in their respective states? The answer is straight: there is a limit to their power, and their duties are well defined. These intelligence agencies also enjoy creamy powers when it comes to tackling the threat and exercising their powers in the national security domain, but they always cautiously exercise power. 

Intelligence Agency’s Perspective

The rationale behind an intelligence agency become overpowerful or limitless from an agency’s perspective is to seek power/hunger of power or wherever the intelligence agency feels that civilian government are incompetent to hold power. This kind of feeling generates when the democratic structure of a country starts to fall. Even the intelligence hardliners in ISI do not support the concept of democracy much or the bureaucracy and security of a country loses its faith in their political leaders.

This is exactly the case with ISI as it feels that it is the competent power to rule the country or exercise its influence over political decisions because civilian leaders are incompetent to hold power and further ISI also believes in marginalizing other civilian authorities or intelligence agencies which could become powerful with patronage from an elected government. One more reason why ISI is sticking like glue with the internal politics of Pakistan is the absence of a genuine external threat to Pakistan. Pakistan’s false propaganda and its India centric threat perception make the general population of Pakistan believe that there is an actual existence of a threat from India but in reality, India has never exercised force unnecessary until unless provoked. But this real notion is always in denial from Pakistan’s side to nurture a false notion that shows genuine external threat to Pakistan.

By: Lipun Kumar Sinbad

The last year or so has witnessed very rapid growth in Chinese nuclear capabilities that have increased over time to a very threatening level, not only to international security but also to regional stability. Throughout its history, China has followed a very successful policy of minimal deterrence and has actually maintained a relatively small arsenal of nuclear weapons, mainly intended to deter potential aggressors. Lately, China’s development of nuclear strategy has been increasingly indicative of a divergence from its earlier posture of prudence. The present phase of growth in the nuclear program is both quantitatively and qualitatively by far the largest. This has raised great concern from the global community on top of consternation about the potential to cause a mass-scale arms race, in turn sounding a clarion call for wider consequences on the global security architecture.

Dynamic development of China’s nuclear policy has raised concerns not only in Washington and Moscow but also among other regional states, who are increasingly apprehensive regarding the strategic implications of cohabiting with a rapidly rising nuclear power. Of course, the acceptability of this newly assertive strategy regarding nuclear armament directly challenges the prevailing world order, which throughout time has constantly secured the absence of nuclear hostilities through a frail balance of power. Of course, it is apt to ramify, through the strategic logics of many nations, onto deep and wide implications that it may set forth, complicating even further the effort for the sustenance of international peace and security.

Within this context, one requires an understanding of the whole picture of China’s nuclear expansion and the much wider geopolitics in which it fits. This paper studies the implications of growing Chinese nuclear capabilities systemically in relation to their impacts on global security and the stability of neighboring countries. This paper is meant to thoroughly understand how the significant rise in threats related to China’s nuclear ambitions is being looked into from the standpoint of real cases, valid reasons, and evidence acquired through quantification.

China’s Nuclear Expansion: A Departure from Minimal Deterrence

While maintaining a “no first use” policy and a relatively small nuclear arsenal designed for minimum deterrence, China has made its strategic doctrine revolve around the judgment that a few nuclear weapons will be sufficient to discourage potential adversaries from attacking China. However, the latest developments suggest drastic changes in China’s thinking. Now, for instance, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that China’s nuclear warheads likely increased from around 320 in 2020 to its current count of 410 in 2023. There are other estimates that put the number above 1,000 by 2030. This build-up is, for the most part, driven by the construction of new missile silos, development of new advanced delivery systems such as hypersonic glide vehicles, and deployment of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles on its intercontinental ballistic missiles, to name a few measures. It indicates that China is no longer pursuing the concept of minimum deterrence with this massive, modernized nuclear arsenal build-up. This can be attributed to a variety of elements: parity with the United States and Russia, trying to deter regional adversaries, and the intention to put up their global superpowers.

Global Security Implications: The Risk of Nuclear Escalation

 It represents an enormous, complex threat to international security, and this is a global stability issue with wide-reaching concerns. The increase in nuclear escalation that is relative to a country such as China, as it improves its capabilities with nuclear weapons and risk from the onset of some conflicts on several dimensions, will just expand on the numbers in nuclear weapons overall but also nuance their governance and regulation.

It is in reality a most disturbing development because it multiplies the perils of miscalculation. Under these tense and instable circumstances, an expanded and improved nuclear stockpile might easily lead to errors of perception or misjudgment of the purposes involved. It will be all too easy for an adversary to misconstrue routine military moves as presaging a surprise pre-emptive nuclear attack, to make appropriate pre-emptive or countermoves, and much too quickly all-out nuclear war will be in town. That means, in itself, potential conflict that is quite blunt with the considerations of hotspots: take China, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, where even the smallest incident assumes explosive proportions.

It is under this scenario of conflict that a widespread use of nuclear weapons, an event of little probability under the prevailing doctrine of mutual assured destruction, suddenly becomes quite a realistic threat as Chinese nuclear capabilities continue to grow. That enlarged arsenal could make China much more aggressive, convinced that it could dominate—or win—a nuclear exchange. This could create a threshold of use of nuclear weapons, such as when China views limited nuclear use as a usable means to achieve its strategic objectives, especially where the performance of its conventional military forces is up to the mark or where it seeks a third-party intervention in regional conflicts.

The Impact on the Global Strategic Balance

Such growth of the Chinese nuclear arsenal entails important consequences for global strategic stability. Historically, the United States and Russia dominated the international nuclear architecture, their share amounting to over 90 percent of worldwide nuclear warheads. However, China’s rapid furtherance of its nuclear capabilities is hardening this duopoly; at worst, it brings in a new era of dynamic nuclear competition.

This course of events is likely to undermine efforts in arms control on a global level with the New START treaty, which limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems by both the United States and Russia. The controversy, of course, is whether to include China in further arms control negotiations, and the increasingly mobilizing Chinese nuclear arsenal is against going forward on any new agreements on nuclear dangers in a multilateral framework.

However, continued enhancement of China’s nuclear capability may inspire another arms race in the region. Regional nuclear powers, together with other developing countries, will find a need to increase their arsenals in response to enhanced Chinese power. This, in turn, will spark off another further destabilizing arms race in the region and will increase the risk of nuclear war. The implementation of the arrival of the hypersonic missile force, it specifically speaks to the concept of arms race instability. They are faster than Mach 5 and have very unpredictable trajectories that deny current missile defense systems. If hypersonic missile forces proliferate, two rival nuclear powers are going to feel that they must do first strikes against each other on the outbreak of war, thus threatening to intensify the incidence of nuclear escalation.

Regional Impacts: Security Dilemmas for Neighboring Countries

The implications of such a dramatic rise in China’s nuclear warheads number in the Asia-Pacific nations. China’s growing military prowess, coupled with increasingly belligerent behavior in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and at borders with India, escalates concerns over security for states in this region.

(i)  Japan: Reassessing Security Posture

A major ally of the United States in Asia-Pacific, Japan, too, has raised serious concerns about the growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. The protective measure for the former was also the U.S. nuclear umbrella, but with growing Chinese assertiveness, a significant emphasis was put on relooking at Japan’s security posture. A growing discourse within Japan also discusses not only hardening Japanese missile defenses but also moving toward a firmer deterrence policy that poses consideration, among others, for the development of particularly pre-emptive strike capabilities.

Even more significant is the intermediate-range ballistic missile, the DF-26, already fielded and which targets sites within Asia-Pacific-region, or more specifically, United States military installations in Japan. Further, the Chinese nuclear-armed submarine that will be based in the Pacific could equally pose a threat to Japanese security.

(ii) India: Heightened Security Dilemmas

India shares an unenviable strategic frontier with a nuclear-armed state: China. Its growing stockpile puts an increasing premium on the Indian security apparatus. China has been historically at loggerheads with India over border demarcation, as can be seen in its confrontations in Doklam and in the Galwan Valley. China’s enhanced nuclear powers, in spite of commitment to credible minimum deterrence, might make India adopt a different nuclear posture.

India has already replied to Chinese nuclear build-up by augmenting its own strategic capability, including the long-range Agni-V ICBM, with an intended reach across the whole of China’s expanse. Besides, India is investing in nuclear submarines, for example, INS Arihant, and building up a second-strike capability. But the asymmetry in the nuclear capabilities between the emerging giant China and powerful India may always pose a problem, pushing India into continually enlarging its arsenal, which could finally result in an arms race in the region.

(iii) South Korea and Taiwan: Growing Vulnerabilities

Growing nuclear capability on behalf of China increases vulnerability either for the United States, as in the case of South Korea, or other states within striking distance, such as Japan, to China. However, the presence of Chinese missile capability, nuclear-armed, and within striking distance of South Korea, is significant because such a step averted the extended deterrence of the U.S.

Taiwan is the most vulnerable, with wide-ranging existential threats from China. An increasing disparity in both conventional and nuclear military power with respect to China could induce Beijing to take stronger actions, even through force, to achieve its aim of reunification. Added to this further complication of strategic calculations for Taipei is the ambiguity surrounding the commitment of the United States, particularly in defending Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.

The West’s Reaction: Containment and Diplomacy

(i) US Strategic Rebalancing and Modern

In this light, it has modernized its nuclear forces as a result of the expansion by the People’s Republic to support allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Development investments which the United States had done in credible, flexible, and advanced nuclear deliverance systems to sustain its strategic posture. This includes the development of the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent and Long-Range Stand-Off missile.

Accompanying this drive for modernization in both military terms and theoretical policy understanding has been a drive for enhancing alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, as well as bolstering security partnerships with India and other regional entities. This manifests itself mostly in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or “Quad”) putatively composed of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, designed in part as a hedge against China’s growing regional dominance.

(ii) Diplomacy in Weapons Control and Confidence Building

 The West has sought to grapple with the rise of China’s nuclear power through arms control and confidence-building, not very successfully. China has been loath to enter any such negotiations—being a minor power in terms of numbers in its nuclear arsenal when compared with the U.S. and Russia. This has, in recent years, been associated with demands for Chinese participation in future arms control agreements, including a follow-on to New START. To achieve this, the confidence-building measures include transparency measures and crisis communication mechanisms that could also help reduce risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation.

Surfing the New Perilous Age

The evolution of such nuclear potentials has altered the strategic balance, intensified the possibility of nuclear escalation, and fueled the security dilemma across the neighboring countries. It being the case, as China proceeds progressively in its modernization drive and expands the domains in the military services that use nuclear potentials, the international society has to rationally adapt to this perilous new phase. The ways may embrace direct and indirect containment, diplomatic efforts, and arm-control attempts. The potential consequences are vast, and the dangers of misperception or unintended escalation are real. The new challenges that have emerged because of China’s nuclear status will need a concerted global effort not to repeat the same arms race and ensure that the deadliest weapons on Earth will never be used in any war. Minds will be further strengthened since there is no backwards way for dealing with the issue of international security and stability.

By: Vaibhav Pal

New Delhi on August 20, 2024 hosted the third 2+2 ministerial dialogue with Japan where Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar hosted their Japanese counterparts, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, Ms. Kamikawa Yoko and Minister of Defence of Japan, Mr. Kihara Minoru.  This is an important year as India and Japan celebrates 10^th anniversary of the establishment of special strategic global relationship. This relationship has gradually matured from what it was in the start of the century. This dialogue came at a time when PM Modi was set to visit Ukraine and India’s engagement with the West has increased multi-fold. However, Chinese assertiveness is considered as the driver of this relationship. The narrative of the relationship has now been the cooperation between countries with shared vision of Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The 2+2 ministerial dialogue offers unique opportunity for the cooperation between the security and long-term foreign policy objectives.

Evolution

In 2000, Mori Yoshiro became the first Japanese PM in a decade to visit India and that was the point when Indo-Japan relations took off from the shadows of Indian testing nuclear weapons in 1998. The subsequent visit of PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Japan in 2001 started the traditions of frequent high-level engagements between these two countries and as a result India inched closer to Japan. All the Japanese and Indian Prime ministers have given priority to this relationship, even Shinzo Abe went a step ahead to say that it would not be surprising if Indo-Japan relations surpass that of US-Japan relations. The security cooperation agreement of 2008 was largely seen as a move against China which Chinese media reported it in that way. In 2024, there is institutional consultation between these two governments are taking place at highest level.

Cultural connect has been something that binds India and Japan. Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe remains one of the most respected and celebrated foreign leader in India. He was conferred with second highest civilian award, Padma Vibhusana to respect his legacy and contribution in Indo-Japan ties

Shared Objectives

Now, there is a clear convergence of the interests to protect the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC). Since India’s geographic location is such that it is present at the two most important choke points, Strait of Malacca in the east and the Strait of Hormuz in the west. Chinese presence in the waters of the region is increasing and most of the transportation of oil, gas and energy from the gulf to the pacific passes through these  two straits and since Japan’s constitutions inhibits deployment of Maritime self defence forces (MSDF) into the international waters, it is essential to cooperate with Indian Navy in the region. India at the same time is also facing severe challenges from the Chinese navy whose submarines, research vessels and ports like Hambantota and Gwadar that are very close to India are under Chinese control possess a direct security challenge. It is in the Indian interest to cooperate with the likeminded countries.

Third 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

Major highlight of this meeting is the willingness of the two countries to cooperate in the domains of cyber and space where both of these countries would work together to protect critical information infrastructure. Talks regarding semiconductors also took place. While taking the stock of the previous developments, military exercises were noted and the ministers expressed their satisfaction with the progress made in this domain. The Ministers expressed their commitment to continuing bilateral and multilateral exercises including “Dharma Guardian”, JIMEX and “Malabar”. Defence policy dialogues and joint staff level talks are to be accelerated to enhance the cooperation between these two countries. India is expecting assistance from the Japanese side to enhance its domestic defence capabilities where there will be cooperation and coproduction. They reaffirmed the importance of multilateral defence cooperation and exchanges in the Indo-Pacific region.

Both India and Japan seek to revise and update the 2008 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation to meet contemporary challenges and to be able to respond to security challenges emerging in the recent times.

Both the countries shared their objection to any kind of unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific region. This was hinted to the Chinese belligerence in the South China sea where Chinese coast guards often go beyond their zone and enter into disputed waters. India and Japan will also strengthen the cooperation with the ASEAN.

Economic landscape of the relationship has also been discussed. Since 2000, Japan had been one of the biggest contributors of FDI into India and since then it has invested around US$ 39.94 billion ranking fifth in the world. India plans to engage Japan in the development of its north-eastern states. Technological research and Industrial cooperation is also one of the facets that is being discussed.

Talks also took place regarding the issue of countering terrorism. Both the countries have expressed strong opinions on the cross-border terrorism. It was hinted at the continuous incursion of terrorists from Pakistan administered areas into Indian territories.

Both India and Japan being the member of G 4 grouping reiterated their demands of the reforms at the multilateral institutions and especially United Nations. It has been long-standing demand from India and Japan to reform institutions that were built in 1940s, India and Japan often claim that UN does not reflect the realities of 2024 and deeply embedded in the past.

Japan remains an important partner in India’s growth story. It has valuable contribution in the Indian economy, critical infrastructural projects like Delhi metro and the ongoing Bullet train project and the projects in the north-eastern Indian states. Now it is the time to upgrade the relationship and to involve in the joint ventures and cooperation in the defence production. As Japan is developing its domestic industrial defence capabilities, it becomes important for India to codevelop Indian domestic defence complex with Japanese support. Despite being very robust relations at political level, economic relations largely remain under-utilised where bilateral trade between these two countries remains US$ 21.96 billion and it needs to be improved if India seeks to diversify and decouple its economic dependence from China.

By: Meghna Dasgupta, Research Analyst, GSDN

The Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Initiative (BBIN) is a sub-divisional organisation that was established in 2015 with an aim of advancing transportation, trade and energy relationships between these countries. It is an initiative by South-Asian countries to enhance economic collaboration, and connectivity among its members. This collaboration aims to improve people to people ties, and enhance regional cooperation. Regional integration has been an evolving aspect in South-Asia. Efforts towards improving connectivity between the nations are being made to make the region more integrated.

India’s neighbourhood policy has thrived a lot over the past decade. India’s efforts at regional integration in the past were hampered by the India-Pakistan differences. These regional differences resulted in the unsuccessful performance of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The arrival of NDA government to power in 2014 hinted towards cooperation attempts from the Indian side to tackle the issues plaguing their relationship. The member countries of the SAARC, proposed the formulation of the Motor Vehicle Agreement, at the 18^th SAARC summit. This agreement was devised to improve connectivity between the member states. When this proposal was rejected by Pakistan, some countries unlike previous experiences adopted a subregional approach by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal to sign a separate agreement on Motor Vehicle Agreement for the Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic (MVA). Bhutan is however yet to ratify the agreement, because it is concerned about the potential environmental implications, and the infrastructural inefficiencies. In March 2024, Bhutan expressed the willingness to work towards filling the policy gaps, that prevented Bhutan from signing the BBIN MVA agreement initially.

India saw this transport corridor as an opportunity to utilise this to transform it to an economic corridor. The rationale behind this initiative was to enhance regional cooperation through connectivity, and it listed 30 priority transport connectivity projects. 

The BBIN initiative is being utilised to foster a network of safe, and economically efficient roadways that will address the connectivity concerns in the region, and will create an uninterrupted flow of cargo traffic and people. This initiative was launched with an aim to strengthen regional economic cooperation, and people-to-people ties, which had remained tethered in the past due to the conflicts among the SAARC nation states.

According to Australian Outlook, South Asia remains one of the least integrated regions in the world. The push towards regional integration, and cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal was seen as a crucial step in navigating the connectivity, and transportation challenges in the post-pandemic world. It was crucial to improve the road and railway connectivity in India and Bangladesh with land locked Nepal and Bhutan. The BBIN initiative harmonises custom procedures, and improves border infrastructure. By facilitating trade between the neighbouring countries, BBIN hopes to reduce poverty by creating more employment opportunities, and in turn drive economic growth. The BBIN countries also aims to address concerns like energy shortages, reduce fossil fuel dependency, and contribute towards a more sustainable development. Development of cross border energy infrastructure, like transmission pipelines helps enhance energy cooperation. 

In the recent decades, Pakistan has gained a back seat in India’s strategic thinking. India is concerned about the growing Chinese presence in the region. Beijing has expanded its influence in both the Eastern and Western sectors. China’s Belt and Road initiative serves a way of accessing ports, investing in infrastructure, and increase its political and security presence and connection with the other countries. Other than regional cooperation, the BBIN aims to counter China’s growing influence. BBIN was a strategic initiative on India’s part, because China has border disputes with Bhutan, Nepal, and India and often likes to show its strength. BBIN serves as a mutual agreement between the four South-Asian countries to push back against China’s growing influence. 

The BBIN initiative is certainly ambitious, and has experienced its fair share of challenges. The varying political and administrative processes in the four countries can affect the seamless implementation of agreements. Difference in priorities and policy requirements often creates obstacles. Truck drivers often experience long delays at the border, resulting in an increase in the trade cost between the countries. This happens due to lack of proper infrastructure, administrative delays, restrictive policies, and inadequate logistics for cargo handling. These countries have a complex geography, which makes transportation more difficult. Thus, it is easier for them to trade with distant countries, than their neighbours. The World Bank Connecting to Thrive report has stated that it is about 15-20 percent cheaper for India to trade with Brazil or Germany, than with its neighbour Bangladesh. The BBIN agreement seeks to narrow this cost disparity, and enhance connectivity and regional autonomy. 

BBIN prioritises the objective of ‘connectivity’. In 2016 India approved the construction and upgradation of 558 kilometres of roads connecting Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. This project that was valued at US$ 1.08 billion, received 50 percent of its funding from the Asian Development Bank. The Asian Development Bank has also funded the SASEC Road Connectivity Investment Programme to improve transportation efficiency and regional connectivity. The Trans-Asian Highway Project has tried to integrate the BBIN region, and create a network of highways across Asia.

The BBIN initiative also conducts workshops and training programmes to aid capacity building in transportation, customs, and border security. Efforts are being made to streamline the custom procedures, and make the entire process electronic, to make the entire process more seamless and efficient. These processes would facilitate a more un-ambiguous cross border movement. India and Bangladesh have been working together on expanding the number of protocols routes for in-land water transportation under the BBIN agreement. This allows smooth cargo movement between the two countries.

India is financing the development of the Mongla Port and has also financed the construction of five railway links that connects Bangladesh to India via West-Bengal. India is also building two railway corridors in Bhutan which will improve the oceanic connectivity for landlocked Bhutan by linking the Ghelepu region with the Mongla port in Bangladesh. From Akhaura, Indian rail lines will link the corridor to Kokrajhar, taking it to Gelephu.

In Nepal, India is building the 171-kilometre-long Kathmandu-Raxaul railway line, which will be further integrated into the Indian railway network through the existing India-Nepal railway lines through Kathmandu. Together, these projects can form a continuous transport corridor between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Large scale investments have been made in the infrastructure of Nepal. Seamless connectivity has the potential to increase national income by 17 percent in Bangladesh.

While the agreement was signed in 2015, the its full implementation has faced delays. Bhutan’s hesitance to ratify the agreement has led to the creation of a sub-regional framework. Despite all the hurdles, the BBIN countries have conducted several trials to test the cargo vehicles movement, and the agreement protocols. This agreement has the potential to become a regional milestone once it becomes fully operational. It is a critical step towards regional integration, which could contribute to economic growth and development in South Asian. Regional integration will lead to the creation of more stable and united neighbourhood. Strong bilateral ties with its neighbours are crucial for India’s territorial integrity. A stable neighbourhood is essential for a rising power like India and the BBIN initiative serves as a deterrence to the growing dominance of China and promotes a multifaceted development. 

By: Kashif Anwar, Research Analyst, GSDN

Introduction

In world politics, over centuries many countries have played a pivotal role from being a major to minor player in geopolitics, which has impacted and transformed the world we know today. As during the Cold War period, the US and former Soviet Union played a major role and China and European nations like the UK, France and Germany have played minor role. However, the role, place and contribution of Italy in world’s history and to global geopolitics can’t be ignored as they are documented and acknowledged. Today, Italy finds itself at the centre of geopolitics at the time when competition between the US and China has impacted world geopolitics and geoeconomics. As Italy holds the G7 chair and could use its position to become a linchpin to connect the free and open societies and economies of the Mediterranean countries and Indo-Pacific region. In coming times, Italy’s role and global position will be looked upon especially after exiting from China’s BRI which has changed Italy’s global outlook and the steps taken since made Rome a centre of attraction in the global geopolitics.

Italy’s role in the global geopolitics: From Europe to the Indo-Pacific Region

In a democratic nation having a secure government not only allows them to pass and implement important bills for the people ensuring and reflecting equity and fairness in their governance. On the other hand, such a stability allows such government to have a firm approach and push forward its foreign policy and the leadership’s goal, aim and vision for the country and towards regional and global geopolitics. Such a situation is visible in the case of Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government, as Italy is witnessing political stability after a long time, though country’s economic prospect remains weak. As political stability at home allows the government to translate their leadership abroad as witnessed in the case of Ukraine, securing Mediterranean and promote infrastructure development which is being projected by the Meloni’s government.

Meloni’s policies have helped Italy to become a vital link for the EU and for NATO in the Mediterranean region – a weak portion of NATO’s operation area – to deter any Russian moves and to secure the region. On the other hand, Italy is able to perform a balancing act to have good relations with the US and China which continues despite differences with the US on many domestic policies of the Meloni’s government and continuation of ties with China after exiting from the BRI. With Italy holding chair of the 2024 G7 has allowed Italy to garner support from the West for the IMEC infrastructure projects and to play an important link and become a key partner for the Asia-European economic corridor. On the other hand, the recent visit by Italy’s PM Meloni to China on July 28, 2024, focussed on strengthening of economic and commercial relations in a post-BRI breakup era to ensure global geopolitics doesn’t jeopardise the Sino-Italy trade relationship.

While PM Meloni’s visit to China was planned to coincide with the 700^th death anniversary of Marco Polo to highlight Italy’s emphasis in ensuring the historical connection and bridges are secured and to rebuild Italy and China trade relationships. In the context of Europe, to mend fences with the European Union and reduce PM Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party Euroskeptic approach, the nomination of Raffaele Fitto by the Italy government as one of 27 Commissioners of the EU government for the next five years is seen as a constructive approach. Fitto being a pragmatist, diplomatic and politically well attuned, his selection will rebuild the bridge with Brussels especially after PM Meloni’s refusal to support Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as the European Commission Chief.

Such developments from the Meloni’s government are driven to ensure Italy remains important in the global geopolitics and its domestic interests aren’t impacted by any ongoing geopolitics or issue or competition between the US and China. As great power politics between the US and China has impacted many sectors and aspects of geopolitics has put other countries in a difficult situation and Italy is one of them to face such situation. Competition between the US and China in the infrastructure, military and outer space power, economics, supply chain and advanced technologies to name a few have put many nations in a tight situation.

To address such situation, PM Meloni policies especially the foreign policy has been equated as Chess Queen’s Gambit move. As such strategy in chess involves various interlinked moves if executed correctly would yield great result. Such aspect is witnessed on various occasions as the Italy government continues to extend cooperation with China emphasising relevance of the Italy-China economic relations in a post-BRI breakup. Further, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict – to support the Ukraine cause – Italy has objected to deploying NATO troops in Ukraine and restricted Kyiv to use Italy’s weapons for defensive purpose and not inside Russia as it will add fuel to the fire. Such approach towards China and Russia has shown Italy prefers global peace and wants its domestic economic demands – commercial and infrastructure – to be secured. As the growing US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific region has spiralled to other regions of the world and has become a concerning issue for many nations to secure their national interests.

PM Meloni visit to China recently could be seen as Italy going soft on China and such Italy’s approach would project the latest sign of growing cracks in the EU’s hard-line approach towards China. As Europe’s dependence on cheap Russian oil and gas has made them addicted which has proved costly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To protect Europe’s interest and de-risk from China, European Commission President Ursula has transformed her views into actions and imposed high tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and to stop sale of semiconductors machinery to China. As such a decision was taken to ensure the EU doesn’t repeat the same mistake, however, de-risking and the crackdown on China caused difference among the EU members pushing the EU to open talks with China.

In case of Italy, as Rome’s hard-line approach has gone mild under the PM Meloni government, exiting BRI and blocking a Chinese state-owned company to take control of Italian tyre maker Pirelli are few exceptions. Italy is following the footstep of Germany and Hungary to promote cooperation with China and has ensured such a cooperation remains economic in nature and opposed China supporting Russia’s war efforts and China’s military actions in the Indo-Pacific region. However, in the context of Indo-Pacific region, Italy’s approach is visible by participating in the Pitch Black 2024 exercise for the first time on August 2, 2024, highlighting Italy is focussing and aligning its interest with other participating members’ interest in the region. The significant presence of Italy – an aircraft carrier Cavour and carrier strike group –in the exercise illustrate Italy’s activism is growing in the Indo-Pacific region and to ensure they address their concerns from increasing Chinese activities in the region.

The presence of Italian Navy in a distant sea confirms a new era for Naval diplomacy for the Navy and ensuring their presence in maritime space in the Indo-Pacific region to secure their interests and ensure freedom of navigation like in the South China Sea region. Developments like China setting up a military base in Subi Reef which includes a large deep-water shelter port and within the 12-nautical miles of Pag-asa Island of the Philippines have alarmed the US and the Philippines. As Italy is taking a cooperative approach with group of ally countries like Australia and Japan against Chinese maritime hegemonic claims in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea region and seen during Rising Sun 2024 exercise (August 06-08, 2024) at Misawa Base in Japan. Such an approach by Italy as part of their operation the ‘Indopacific Jump 2024’ which began on June 30^th and covered around 13,000 km. Under the operation, Italy’s Aeronautica Militare (Italy Air Force) made stopovers at Qatar, Maldives, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and ended in Japan to project Italy’s prowess and protect Italy’s interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

As Italy has a strategy towards European geopolitics reflected by their Mediterranean focussed foreign policy also known as Mediterraneo Allargato which extends to the Indian Ocean region and Euroskeptic approach. In case of Indo-Pacific, Italy has substantial relations and interests in the region and yet to have an official Indo-Pacific strategy. The recent actions by Italy, project that the country is on the right path to have such strategy to secure their economic and strategic interest in the region. Although, Italy has shifted its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region in the last 15 years and has become more decidedly in the last five years to secure their growing trade relations in the region which has witnessed a growth of 16% in the last ten years. With Italy joining NATO and other European countries Indo-Pacific missions to ensure freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region in last few years, current Italy activism in the region has ensured Italy a regular player in the region.

Conclusion

As Italy holds the 2024 G7 Presidency which gives Italy a scope to address its concerns and play a vital part to secure peace, stability and freedom of navigation from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. The relations Italy has with the US, China, Russia and the EU has taken a hit due to the Russian and Chinese activities in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific region respectively. Balancing act from Italy is being projected by the PM Meloni government to ensure the developments in Ukraine and South China Sea region cause further turmoil and disrupting the global economy. As PM Meloni argues China could play or act as a key player to meditate between Russia and Ukraine and Italy playing an important role to improve China’s ties with the EU and ensuring a balanced trade relationship. However, a growing difference between China and the EU and the worsening of Russia-Ukraine conflict due to continuous West support of Ukraine with key player involved in the conflict focusing on securing their vested interests rather peace and order in Ukraine. Such occurrence will continue to act as hurdle in Italy’s global outreach and ensure peace and stability from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region.

By: Pritam Sarbabidya

The concept of “Neighbourhood First” policy of India is a strategic outlook aimed at fostering cooperation with its “neighbours” with the vision of ensuring peace and stability in the region focusing intensively on areas like economy, science and technology, education etc as peace and stability at the domestic, regional, and international levels are important objectives to the pursuit of foreign policy of any country. However, in recent years this ambitious policy has challenges on its path. Over the years the turmoil in and around India, with Taliban in Afghanistan and antagonist Pakistan in the west, declared bankruptcy in Sri Lanka, Bhutan’s closeness with China, Nepal’s political turbulence, recent mayhem in Bangladesh, or the expansionist China, military rule in Myanmar, and “India-out” campaign in Maldives, each neighbour brings different issues to India’s doorstep. They have a profound effect on India’s foreign policy and security.

August 05, 2024 witnessed an unanticipated development in India’s immediate neighbour Bangladesh, where the ongoing student protest regarding quota reservation took a minacious turn on 4^th August when news flooded the media of  93 people, including 14 policemen, being killed and dozens injured during the clashes. This intensified further and what the world saw next was Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina’s unforeseen resignation and leaving the country which came as a shockwave for the entire world more intensely for India. Later on, Bangladesh Army chief announced the formation of an interim government and on August 09, 2024 an interim government was formed in Dhaka led by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate. In the meantime, there were reports of numerous attacks on minorities, police personnel, government infrastructures as the law and order situation collapsed across the country.

For India, it’s close neighbour and strategic partner in the region, Sheikh Hasina’s exit marks a significant turning point. To put it clearly, India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh has been largely shaped and had reached a significant height under Sheikh Hasina. The two countries collaborated on several fronts, like counter terrorism and regional connectivity. Also, trade statistics shows that in the financial year 2023-24, trade between the two countries reached US$13 billion . However, With the new government in picture with fresh players as political heads, India may expect reorientation of relationships from Dhaka. Another major concern for India can be that the possibility of an increase in extremist activities in Bangladesh that could spill over into India, thus undermining security gains made during the past decade. Also, once cannot leave alone the high possibility of refugee crisis on the bordering states of India, mainly West Bengal, Assam, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Tripura.

Likewise, India’s another neighbour Maldives, with President Mohamed Muizzu in picture, New Delhi has watched the development of Maldives’s growing affection with China with concern. Months ago, both the nations also experienced controversy over derogatory remarks made for the Indian Prime Minister by few Maldivian politicians, which was not well taken by the Indian citizens. It led to huge noise on social media platforms. So, the table has turned in Maldives as well for India.

Moving towards Sri Lanka, the year 2022 marked a tumultuous period in Sri Lanka, with an economic crisis that transformed into social unrest. What the world saw in Bangladesh for few days, Sri Lanka went through the same phase back then – protestors stormed the President and PM’s estates and the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country. This crisis brings out the need for India to closely monitor Chinese activities in the region. From the strategic point of view, the Hambantota Port project, given as lease to China for 99 years also can be a point of worry for New Delhi with the possibility of using the same for military purpose or even keeping an eye on India.

Nepal and Bhutan on the other hand share historical ties with India and are connected to each other in the fields of deep cultural, economic, and political connections. The Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and friendship (1950) and the Indo-Bhutan Treaty 1949, revised in 2007 are the foundational documents that have historically governed relationships between these three countries. However, the last decade has seen a major shift, China with its growing economic knock and strategic ambitions has been making inroads into these two countries. Whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that was signed in 2017, or the growing investment in infrastructural projects, these two nations have been showing a significant tilt towards China. Furthermore, Nepal under KP Sharma Oli who won the election flaunting the ideas of “nationalism” , after coming to power under his administration there was an attempt to declare some of part of Indian territories as a part of Nepal by displaying constructed maps. Again, this year in the month of May, Nepal once again shown Indian territories on their currency notes.

In Bhutan, internal political situation is stable like that of its stable relationships with India. But the Chinese factor cannot be sidelined. The boundary negotiations between Bhutan and China have been an issue for years, with China making claims over Bhutanese territory. In recent years, there have been reports of China building infrastructure in disputed territories, that has raised strategic concern India. The more China make its presence in India’s neighbourhood, the more India has to prepare itself to safeguard its interest.

And when it comes to China, its expansionist policy against India is very much visible over the years. Things intensified with the 2020 Galwan valley clash and the border disputes remain unsolved.

Myanmar is already going through political chaos under the military rule of Junta, opposition leaders have been put behind bars. Case in point, the democratic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi has been kept under house arrest, earlier she was in prison. India’s relation with Myanmar has evolved with developments in the situation making a point of concern while dealing with the same. 

To India’s west, Afghanistan is ruled by radical Islamist group called “Taliban”, the group that has a history of anti-India stance, at the same time radical groups like this can encourage other extremist groups in the region against India. Then the state-in-mess Pakistan that has always maintained an anti-India position since its creation, similarly it has witnessed years of political instability where no PM has ever completed their terms in office, followed by fixed elections, ineffective democratic institutions and machinery.  Pakistan is also a country known for exporting terrorism, India being its neighbour is the immediate victim of terror activities prominently in the states of Jammu and Kashmir for years. May be because of this behaviour of this country former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee said “You can change your friends, but not your neighbours”. To have a hostile neighbour like Pakistan, India has always had to keep a eye of concern over its activities to safeguard its national interest, as well as its national security.

Future of Chaos or Stability

‘Every crisis is an opportunity’ apparently, a focused and strategic response is needed by India to address the various challenges from its neighbours. Economic assistance coupled up with developmental project will lead the way for more intense cooperation. People to people connection has always been the cornerstone of India’s foreign policy, which can be encouraged through civilian development programmes, at the same time also maintaining the line of communication with the new players, whether its interim government in Bangladesh, or government in Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka whilst also safeguarding its own interest.

The path ahead may be charged with complexities, but with a steadfast commitment to its principles and strategic interest and calculated steps, India can transform these challenges into opportunities for greater regional integration and stability. A prosperous and stable neighbourhood is imperative. Foreign Policy analyst C Raja Mohan rightly said “Without enduring primacy in one’s neighbourhood no nation can become a credible power at the global stage”, this will ensure India’s greater growth, and concurrently will help to nourish the dream becoming “Vishwabandhu”, a global friend.

By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN

In recent years, the relationship between Pakistan and the United Kingdom (UK) has taken a complex turn, marked by a series of events that hint at underlying tensions and possible motivations that extend beyond mere coincidence. The issues surrounding Israel-Palestine conflict and continuing ban on Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flights to Europe and UK are believed by some to be driving Pakistan’s ill-intentioned responses towards the UK. These actions are seen by many as a subtle form of retaliation, weaving together incidents of political unrest and conspiracy.

Recent political unrest in the UK has spotlighted individuals with Pakistani backgrounds. These events, while seemingly disconnected on the surface, points to a deeper narrative of revenge and frustration from the Pakistan side. On July 29, 2024 three young girls were killed in a knife attack at a Taylor Swift-themed dance and yoga event in seaside town of Southport, in the north of England. Eight more children and two adults were injured. Later on, police arrested a 17-year-old from a village nearby. Almost immediately after the attack, social media posts spread misinformation regarding the tragic incident falsely implicating a Muslim asylum seeker. The spread of this misinformation was fuelled by Pakistan native Farhan Asif through social media posts. The misinformation led to eruption of riots across almost 20 major cities in UK in just seven days. Asif, was later arrested in Pakistan from Defence Housing Authority Lahore apartment. It is being alleged that these events are reflection of broader geopolitical frustrations. 

Pakistan has long harboured grievances over the treatment of Palestinians, and the UK being historically linked to the creation of Israel, has often been viewed with suspicion. This animosity, simmering under the surface for decades, might now be finding its expression in unexpected ways. The spread of misinformation and subsequent riots in the UK could be interpreted as part of a larger strategy to create unrest and destabilize Western nations that Pakistan perceives as complicit in the ongoing Palestinian plight.

Adding fuel to the fire is the ban on PIA flights to Europe & UK, which has hit Pakistan’s national carrier where it hurts the most. The ban was ordered by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which cited serious safety concerns following the fatal crash of PIA flight PK8303, operated on an Airbus A320 in Karachi on May 22, 2020. Another issue which landed PIA into question was the sensational revelation after this tragic incident by Aviation Minister Gulman Sarwar Khan in which he stated in the Pakistan’s National Assembly that more than 30% of civilian pilots in Pakistan have fake licenses and are not qualified to fly. Almost 1 in 3 pilots in Pakistan had fake licenses at that point of time. This move, ostensibly made over safety concerns, is perceived by some in Pakistan as a political manoeuvre aimed at further isolating the country economically. The ban has not only affected Pakistan’s aviation industry but also deepened the sense of grievance against the UK and the broader European Union. This economic blow could very well be seen as a catalyst for Pakistan’s alleged retaliatory actions, as the country grapples with the loss of revenue and prestige.

Pakistan’s geopolitical strategy, influenced by its relationships with major powers like the US, UK, and Iran, are driving these actions indirectly. While direct state involvement in these incidents is suspected, the possibility that individuals or groups within Pakistan are acting on perceived geopolitical grievances cannot be ruled out. Moreover, internal political dynamics in Pakistan, where factions might see international incidents as a way to gain domestic leverage or align with Middle Eastern politics, further complicate the picture.

The series of events involving individuals with Pakistani backgrounds underscores the complex interplay of misinformation, cultural identity, and geopolitical tensions. Whether motivated by revenge, ideological beliefs, or economic pressures, these actions illustrate the multifaceted nature of international political unrest and the deep-seated frustrations that can drive nations and individuals to act against perceived injustices. The PIA flight ban and the ongoing conflict over Palestine seem to be critical elements in this unfolding drama, suggesting that Pakistan’s actions may be part of a larger, more calculated strategy to express its discontent with the West.

By: Arup Maity

 ‘Asamudrahimachal’ (Extending from the ocean to the Himalayas- holistic India) – is an ancient geographical notion that constructs the ambit of the Pan-Indian subcontinent- geopolitically and culturally. “Indian Subcontinent” created itself by its landscape, because it “creates a natural frame” as British journalist Tim Marshall argued in his well-known book ‘Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics’. So, the foreign policy to accomplish the national interest (predominantly security and economic power) is tremendously impacted by its geopolitical location (from northern Indira Col to southern Indira Point- Quadrangular). According to Napoleon “the policy of a state lies in its geography.” So, its diverse and vibrant geography (because India is the 7th largest country in the world) has a dynamic range of impacts on its foreign policy – geo-strategic (border), geo-political and geo-economic.

India’s geopolitical location landed in the ‘Heart of Asia’ because the highest mountain range of the world, Himalayas is in the north and Hindukush is in the north-west, and also India has common border sharing with Afghanistan and Pakistan in the north-west, China, Bhutan and Nepal in the north, Myanmar in the east, Bangladesh to the east of West Bengal and Sri Lanka in the south. Physically, all these countries are not dealing borders with others, but they are linked and united by India in South-Asia. Since independence, its mammoth demonstration has given the quest to become a global power to it; and this aspect is channeling its foreign policy widely (from NAM leadership to UNSC membership).

The Himalayan frontier is a natural border between Sino-India and an enclosure for India’s external security. Countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh played the role of a peaceful buffer state, so India’s broad terrain encouraged India to become a dominant power naturally and to continue it India produced ‘Neighborhood First’ policy. India shares a lengthy border area (around 3917 km) with Asia’s unipolar power- China (in the multipolar world order), and geographical difficulties and technological disadvantages of India give China the chance to ‘occupy’ the Indian land by transgressing the LOC- the Asaphila, Longju Valley, Isu-Razi-Pass, Barahoti Plains, Demchok, Galawan Valley (between Aksai Chin and Ladakh) etc. Difficult areas are the point of the dispute between Indo-China relation (as an example – the Aksai Chin area is India’s integral part and very important for warfare strategy for and China has occupied it). And maintaining sovereignty and integrity are the most crucial for each country, and significantly, India and China became frenemies in businesses and rivals in geo-strategy. Based on it, India maintains ‘reciprocal’ relations with China.

But in the present zeitgeist of hyperrealism and innovation of high-tech technology (and most effective nuclear weapons) and its use in foreign policy and military, are reducing the influence of geography- like, 19,300 feet road, Galwan Valley Bridge in eastern Ladakh, Atal tunnel under the Rohtang Pass etc projects by the Indian government’s ‘Bharatmala Pariyojana’, and bullet trains near the border by the Chinese government. Similarly, the Indo-Pak, geographically, “are tied together within the geography of the Indian subcontinent,” and rivalry (sanctify) relation is moving based on Kashmir; a large area of Kashmir’s is occupied by Pakistan and it can be a gateway (by infrastructure development) of middle east Asia.

The Indo-Myanmar relation originates from India’s geographical and geo-cultural historical similarities. Moreover, International organisations like Non-Alignment-Movement, SAARC, BIMSTEC, Ashgabat Agreement, etc are predominantly led by India- and it happens only by its immense landscape location. Sir Halford Mackinder, the eminent geopolitical thinker, emphasised ‘the power of land for any country,’ and his doctrine suggested that India’s large landscape (2.4% of the world) gives the advantage to process its foreign policy. And geopolitically, the Indian military power is the consequence of its foreign policy and economic growth, but India’s infrastructure development in its border area (geographically) can formulate the military power as the cause for its foreign policy and economic growth.

India is a ‘subcontinent’ not only by land but by ocean manifests too, because the Bay of Bengal, the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea are respectively to the south-east, south and south-west. The Indian Ocean named after India – directly signifies its soft power in the Indian Ocean (India’s coastline is around 7516 km including islands). Strategically, Africa and Australia continents and the ASEAN region are intertwined and connected by the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean under India’s influence and democratic practice, because Indian foreign policy has always accepted the “Friendship Across the Seas” policy. American Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan enamored as the ‘Prophet of Seapower’ in geopolitics endorses that India’s presence and position in the Indian Ocean are extensively significant, and to expedite India’s sphere of influence the Indian Government established the ‘Indo-Pacific’ division under the Ministry of External Affairs, which is blending ‘Look East’ and ‘Look West’ Policies. To increase India’s future integrity and economic growths to counter its instantaneous strategic threat from the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy of China, India is intensifying its geopolitical (maritime security) military bases in Karwar under ‘Project Seabird’ (Asia’s largest naval base- internally) etc, and Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka (externally).

Strategically, the sea accessibility is equipping India to be a part of the ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ maritime cooperation with the United States, Australia, and Japan. And additionally, India’s geoeconomics is especially driving by its maritime location, like the Indo-Iran Chabahar Port project to connect with middle-east Asia, Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement (total trade of nearly US$ 64.3 billion in 2016), Indo-Arab world relations (UAE and Saudi Arabia are India’s 3rd and 4th largest trade partner), Indo-African relation (India is now Africa’s 3rd largest trade partner). For the future, India has targeted to increase its agricultural production exports by using its maritime geographic location’s advancement and to attain it India is developing its port capabilities under the ‘Sagarmala Pariyojana’.

Contemporary outcomes illustrate that to maintain the present zeitgeist, India is exploring its natural energy and internal production (solar, ethanol fuel, crop, sugar) as an enormous resource of geographic diversity especially by the ‘monsoon’, and utilising it in its foreign policy with ‘higher export’ interests. And theoretically, India being the largest democracy with its diverse geographic nature and consequently, its greater impact in foreign policy elicits democratic values with its interests. The comprehensive geopolitical world order has acknowledged that the ‘21st century is the Asian century,’ and it is becoming verisimilitude with the vehement of Indian economic and foreign affairs power by the impact of India’s diverse geographic location and resources, explicitly.

By: Sourishree Ghosh, Research Analyst, GSDN

Cyprus is located at the geographical juncture of Eurasia and Africa. It has an excellent geostrategic history and legacy of being the core of the world continent “Afro-Eurasia” wherein three civilisations meet. It is located in the sea lane of the great maritime highway which connects the Mediterranean Sea through the two gates namely the Suez Canal and Bab-el-Mandeb with the Indian Ocean. These are the Strait of Hormuz which leads to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca which connects to the Pacific. These choke points are crucial to the economic and national security of the world economies. The island country has been at the arena of rivalry between Eastern and Western Civilisation. The conflict for influence and control in this region among major powers such as the United States, Britain and Europe has led to instability and insecurity in the Cyprus region.

Recently, Egypt Foreign Sameh Shoukry and Cyprus Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos agreed upon the importance of immediate Gaza ceasefire. This is a crucial development given the importance of Cyprus on the West Asian geographical and geopolitical landscape. In the ongoing Israel Palestine conflict, Turkey has taken a stance against Israel while Cyprus has chosen Israel. It is also one of the four countries that lie at the borders of the eastern Mediterranean and face the strategic issue of regional stability in the region as the region is always in turmoil, so many question whether there can be a strategic eastern Mediterranean alliance among Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel. However, this is nearly impossible in the near future as only Israel and Turkey are cooperating on security terms and the relations among other members have not been very promising. Cyprus in its foreign policy has adopted a Third World-oriented foreign policy which accepted the Arab positions vis-a-vis Israel.

Cyprus has also developed into a well-established international business and investment centre in the Mediterranean and also a link between Europe and the Middle East which acts as a gateway to the markets of Europe and Middle East. It is also the point where different political entities establish themselves. The region has been in grave political turmoil which has posed a challenge to international order and stability. These include the tensions between Turkey and Iran, radical Islamist movements and ethnic conflicts such as the war in Afghanistan. On the other hand, there are the western-oriented states in the eastern Mediterranean region which have a long-term strategic interest in the region for maintenance of peace.

It has also developed into a European hub for investment as the EU membership allows its access to more than 30 EU countries. The island country is also an international shipping centre which is among the ten biggest commercial fleets in the world. Over 1800 ships have been registered under the Cypriot flag. It is home to major ports of Limassol and Larnaca which handles cargo and passenger traffic and has also participated in the regional trade initiatives such as the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Corridor. It plays a role of the bridge with regard to trade, business and investment between the European and the Middle Eastern countries. The recent discovery of the reserves of natural gas in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus which has indeed increased the importance of Cyprus.

The conflicting interests between Greece and Turkey (although both of them are members of NATO) has led to a stalemate in the peace process for the reunification of Cyprus. Athens and Ankara are the disputed territories wherein both the states claim their rights over the aerospace over the Aegean Sea and the seabed beneath it. NAM has also failed to bring recognition to Cyprus. The United Nations Peace Keeping Force in Cyprus has maintained the military status quo which has prevented the outbreak of serious hostilities; however, the peace process continues to be stalled. The Mediterranean Middle Eastern strategic importance has led to the involvement of the NATO and UN, and this region is in a continual state of “no-final settlement” which has not solidified into a balance of power for maintenance of the vested western interests. The European Union is aiming for maintenance of good relations with Turkey to make it a buffer for the West Asian region.   

The accession of Cyprus to the European Union (EU) in 2004 has led to the development of an extended outpost position in the Hinterland region which also projects the influence of the European Union. Geographically, it has made Cyprus the far eastern point of the European Union and also signifies the influence of the European Union in the Middle Eastern region and also into the coveted Persian Gulf region, which has a substantial amount of fossil fuel reserves. Though Cyprus mainly has a Greek population, it looks more towards Europe in its cultural and political taste.

Cyprus is an island nation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea which is not far from Israel, Syria, Turkey and Egypt. The island country is situated at the centre of a geopolitical chessboard which is intertwined in the threads of historical narrative, regional power dynamics, and international developments. Cyprus has also been conquered by many foreign powers from Greek and Romans to Byzantine and Ottoman rule. The country has also been a hotbed of territorial conflicts concerning sea borders. The discovery of the gas reserves have also made Cyprus less dependent on Russia, which played a major role in helping Cyprus out of the 2013 financial crisis. In 2022, a historic deal was signed between Lebanon and Israel for sharing the gas field along the maritime border. The Cyprus-based DEH Quantum Energy has also been working for the development of a submarine cable for connecting the power grids of Greece, Cyprus and Israel. The Eurasia Interconnector is the 2000 megawatt project which is also the world’s longest submarine power cable. Cyprus has also been making a lot of efforts for the development of a humanitarian corridor in Gaza.

Cyprus has also been at the forefront of the migration crisis. Cyprus also stands at the crossroads of the cultural, linguistic and historic crossroads between Europe and Asia. The division of Cyprus into two parts, namely the Greek controlled South and the Turkish controlled north has had far reaching geopolitical implications. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus has not gained recognition as a separate country. This division continues to play a crucial role in shaping the geopolitical dynamics of the region. This is the legacy of the 1974 war with Turkey, in which there was a ethnic cleansing process which led to the movement of the Muslim Cypriot Turks to the north while the Greek Orthodoxy Cypriots moved towards the south. It is an ironic fact that Turkey has occupied the land of Cyprus, which is an EU member and the fact that the former seeks to be integrated into the EU.

Cyprus is a rich source of regional energy discoveries with its substantial reserves of natural gas, and thus also a hotbed of maritime disputes among the regional powers namely Greece, Turkey and Cyprus itself. It is also at the shipping routes for oil. It is one of the potential chokepoints which has led to competition among European powers for control over these chokepoints. Cyprus geographically cannot be attacked by land as it is only accessible by air or water. The position of the island has also given it the shape of a huge military base and aircraft carrier with formidable fortifications. The island also has major OTH 9 (over the horizon limitations) radar installations in the Troodos Range, such as the Mount Olympus, the commercial seaports of Limassol and Larnaca, two military bases of Akrotiri and Dhekelia and the presence of a primary international standard airport in Larnaca, and these developments have furthered the geopolitical importance of Cyprus.   

Geopolitical Importance for India

In recent years, there has been a growing bilateral engagement between Cyprus and India as the two countries have a number of strategic convergences on the issues in their respective neighbourhoods, the Indo-Pacific region, West Asia and on Europe. Moreover, Greece also aspires to become a gateway of India to Europe in the arenas of trade and investment under the Greece 2.0 Masterplan. There are many areas of strategic convergence between India and Greece in the sectors of security and defence such as joint participation in the exercise such as Iniohos 23 and Tarang Shakti. India’s support for the non-permanent candidacy for Greece for the year 2025-26 is of paramount importance for the latter. It also appreciates India’s long-standing position on the Cyprus issue. India supports the creation of a Bi-Communal, Bi-Zonal federation based on the UN Resolution.  Greece also welcomes India’s Indo-Pacific Initiative. (IPOI). India and Cyprus also recently signed an MoU on defence and military cooperation, which also reflects the growing importance of Cyprus for India.

The India-Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) is a promising development for Cyprus as well as for India. The island has a strategic role to play in the development of the corridor given its strategic geographical location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, which serves as the crucial hub linking Europe, Asia and Africa. Cyprus is a part of the IMEC initiative which aims at exploration of the energy exports such as natural gas, electricity and hydrogen, which aligns with Cyprus aims for a diversified and sustainable energy portfolio.

One of the factors which has been given importance in the National Strategy on Cyprus Diaspora 2023-28 is the Cyprus Diaspora. The Cyprus Diaspora is estimated to be 0.8 million strong, which also enhances the geopolitical importance of the country in the form of knowledge transfer to their native industries, investment, promotion of the art and culture of Cyprus and remittances. This could also be a potential political tool for furthering the interests of Cyprus in the global geopolitical space. The end of Greek-Turkish tensions over the Cyprus issue would be beneficial in the long term for the growth and development in the region. A Cyprus stalemate would lead to extension of the influence of the EU in the eastern Mediterranean region. It would also weaken the Islamist and ultra-nationalist elements in the domestic politics of Turkey. This would also reduce the prospects of a development of an extremist Islamist state on the north of Cyprus, which is one of Iran’s strategic foreign policies.  To conclude, the geographical factors such as topography, size, location, climate and availability of the natural resource have shaped the political history, influence and importance of Cyprus in the geopolitical chessboard of global politics.