By: Samruddhee Sapkale, Research Analyst, GSDN

Myanmar and Bangladesh share a complex and historically rich connection, with official diplomatic ties established in 1972. This relationship has faced challenges, including border conflicts and the Rohingya refugee crisis, which has significantly strained their interactions. The 270-kilometer border reflects a long history of cultural, commercial, and political ties between the regions. Both countries were under British colonial rule, which further intertwined their histories. The Rohingya issue remains a major source of tension, contributing to ongoing conflicts. For India, Myanmar and Bangladesh are strategically important for national security, economic interests, and regional connectivity. Myanmar serves as a gateway to Southeast Asia, supporting India’s “Act East” policy, while Bangladesh provides crucial access to the Bay of Bengal. As regional dynamics evolve, India must navigate its relationships with both countries to bolster its interests and ensure regional stability.

Historical Context

Myanmar and Bangladesh share a complex relationship shaped by history, colonial legacies, and current geopolitical issues. Their connection dates back to medieval times, featuring cultural and trade exchanges. Both regions were under British colonial rule, which resulted in migrations from Bengal to Burma and contributed to ethnic tensions in Myanmar.

Myanmar recognized Bangladesh’s independence in 1972, after which they began diplomatic engagements, including a trade agreement in 1973. However, military rule and isolationist policies hindered the development of deeper relations, and formal trade links were established only in 1995. Ongoing tensions, particularly related to the Rohingya crisis and border conflicts, continue to present humanitarian and security challenges.

The Rohingya Crisis

The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, face severe persecution and are denied citizenship by the government, which regards them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Since the late 1970s, they have faced regular crackdowns, with the most notable occurring on August 25, 2017, when around 730,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, an event labelled as crimes against humanity by human rights groups.

Currently, nearly a million Rohingya live in harsh conditions in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, causing tensions with local populations. After Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, the situation worsened for the approximately 600,000 Rohingya remaining in Myanmar, who endure security crackdowns, travel restrictions, and humanitarian crises, with recent clashes leading to further displacements.

Border Clashes and Airspace Violations

Rising instability in Myanmar has led to frequent border conflicts with Bangladesh, highlighted by a mortar shell incident in September 2022 that killed a Rohingya boy at the Zero Point border. Ongoing tensions include landmine explosions and armed clashes. Additionally, Myanmar’s military aircraft have violated Bangladesh’s airspace, prompting demonstrations. Although Myanmar’s border forces expressed remorse, the deteriorating relationship poses significant diplomatic and security challenges, exacerbated by airspace breaches, a refugee crisis, and cross-border insurgencies. The Rohingya crisis continues to strain Bangladesh’s resources and diplomatic ties. Addressing these complex issues requires sustained communication, humanitarian aid, and regional cooperation to promote stability and peace.

Current Developments in Myanmar-Bangladesh Relations

Arakan Army’s Rise

The emergence of the Arakan Army (AA) has dramatically shifted the dynamics in Rakhine State, Myanmar, by challenging the authority of the Myanmar military and controlling a significant portion of the region. With its strategic gains, including the capture of key military locations, the AA has exacerbated tensions not only within Myanmar but also along the Bangladesh border. The escalating violence, particularly through incidents like the major assault on Border Guard Police in December 2024, has raised alarm in Bangladesh, highlighting the potential for cross-border ramifications and security threats. Additionally, the Myanmar military’s tactics, such as the conscription of Rohingya people to combat the AA, have deepened ethnic tensions and created humanitarian concerns. The situation has prompted both Myanmar and Bangladesh to reevaluate their security strategies to address the challenges posed by the AA’s influence. As noted by former Indian ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, the rise of ethnic armed groups necessitates regional cooperation, suggesting that India and Bangladesh may need to engage collaboratively to manage the evolving security landscape in their border regions.

Recent Border Incidents

The conflict in Myanmar has led to border security challenges for Bangladesh. In February 2024, 264 Myanmar military troops fled into Bangladesh during clashes with the Arakan Army (AA) and were later disarmed and housed by the Bangladesh Border Guards. In January 2025, the AA disrupted trade by seizing three cargo ships on the Naf River carrying valuable supplies from Yangon to Teknaf port. Additionally, Myanmar’s military has recruited soldiers from Rohingya armed groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), increasing regional instability and raising concerns of violence spilling over into Bangladesh. In response, Bangladesh has strengthened border security and engaged in diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.

Economic Ties

Myanmar and Bangladesh have economic ties with growth potential despite security challenges. Myanmar exports rice and pulses, while Bangladesh focuses on textiles and pharmaceuticals. Bilateral trade reached approximately US$ 748.36 million in 2019-2020, but ongoing instability raises uncertainties for future projections. Both countries are part of BIMSTEC, which encourages collaboration, and Myanmar’s natural resources could address Bangladesh’s energy and food needs. Proposed infrastructure projects aim to improve connectivity and trade, but issues like the Rohingya crisis and border conflicts, including cargo vessel seizures by the AA in early 2025, hinder deeper integration.

Future Prospects

Efforts to boost bilateral trade between Bangladesh and Myanmar focus on sectors like energy, agriculture, and the BCIM Economic Corridor, which aims to enhance trade routes and utilize Bay of Bengal resources. This could help Bangladesh with trade deficits and support Myanmar’s economy. However, the Rohingya refugee crisis poses significant challenges, making it crucial for both countries to address humanitarian issues and ensure safe repatriation. Additionally, the rise of the Arakan Army and shifting political dynamics complicate relations, necessitating a careful balance of security and economic cooperation to foster regional stability.

Impact of Myanmar-Bangladesh Relations on India

National Security Concerns

The evolving dynamics between Myanmar and Bangladesh significantly affect India’s national security, particularly in its northeastern states that border both countries. The porous India-Myanmar border (approx. 1,642 km) poses security challenges, with around 2,000 insurgents from groups like ULFA-I and NDFB-S finding refuge in Myanmar, exploiting cultural ties to plan operations against India.

Drug trafficking further complicates the situation, as northeastern states are linked to the narcotics trade from the “Golden Triangle,” with heroin and amphetamines entering via Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. There is an emerging collusion between local drug syndicates and Nigerian cartels.

The instability in Myanmar following the February 2021 military coup has heightened these security issues, exemplified by the ethnic violence in Manipur in May 2023, which resulted in over 220 deaths and significant displacement. In response, India has strengthened border security with measures like electronic surveillance and vulnerability mapping, demonstrated by an April 2024 operation that seized $418,000 worth of heroin.

Myanmar’s Internal Conflict and Its Regional Impact

Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been embroiled in widespread civil unrest, military crackdowns, and ethnic conflicts. The rise of the Arakan Army (AA), which now controls significant parts of Rakhine State, has created further instability. The ongoing clashes between the AA and Myanmar’s military have led to cross-border security challenges for Bangladesh and India. Over 1.1 million Rohingya refugees now reside in Bangladesh, straining its resources and exacerbating tensions in the region.

India’s Economic Interests

The economic relationship between Myanmar and Bangladesh, despite enduring security challenges, illustrates the complexities of regional trade dynamics. The substantial trade volume of US$ 748.36 million in 2019-2020 indicates strong export relationships, with Myanmar exporting primarily agricultural products and Bangladesh contributing textiles and pharmaceuticals. However, ongoing instability, exemplified by the seizure of Myanmar cargo vessels in January 2025, reveals the vulnerability of this trade to external disruptions, complicating efforts to maintain and expand economic ties.

India’s strategic initiatives, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Project, reflect a commitment to enhancing connectivity and trade in the region, aligning with its broader “Look East” and “Neighbourhood First” policies. However, progress has been hindered by Myanmar’s political instability post-2021 coup, which has raised concerns over concerted efforts. The growing influence of China in Myanmar and Bangladesh’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative further complicates India’s aspirations, challenging its regional dominance and necessitating a careful recalibration of its foreign policy strategies to navigate the emerging geopolitical landscape effectively.

Regional Influence and China’s Expanding Role

India’s strategy towards Myanmar and Bangladesh aims to counter China’s growing influence. After the 2021 military coup, India embraced a “twin-track approach,” engaging with Myanmar’s military while promoting democratic restoration. Unlike Western nations that impose sanctions, India focuses on strategic stability. In contrast, China has strengthened its ties with Myanmar through economic investments and military support, including a second-hand submarine in 2021. India’s challenge is to maintain its influence amidst China’s expanding presence.

India’s Diplomatic Balancing Act

India’s relationship with Bangladesh focuses on stability, economic cooperation, and shared security concerns, notably the Rohingya crisis and cross-border terrorism. Challenges persist in water sharing and border management. India is also engaged with ASEAN on Myanmar’s crisis. In July 2023, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar highlighted the need for peace in border areas, counter-trafficking efforts, and people-centric initiatives, reflecting India’s commitment to balancing security and regional diplomacy.

Future Outlook

As Myanmar and Bangladesh navigate bilateral relations, India must adapt its approach to safeguard its strategic interests. Key areas of engagement include:

• Enhancing Border Security: Strengthening surveillance along the India-Myanmar border to curb insurgencies and trafficking.
• Expanding Economic Ties: Accelerating infrastructure projects like the Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Project despite Myanmar’s instability.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Balancing relations with both Bangladesh and Myanmar while countering Chinese influence in the region.

India’s Strategic Response to Myanmar-Bangladesh Dynamics

Diplomatic Engagements with Regional Partners

India’s approach to Myanmar and Bangladesh balances security and economic interests. In Myanmar, India employs a dual strategy of supporting democratization while engaging with the military junta, as seen in the October 2023 visits of Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Army Chief Gen. Manoj Naravane. Geopolitically, India seeks to counter China’s influence by fostering alternative partnerships and coordinating with ASEAN for regional stability. In Bangladesh, political changes have occurred after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. This has led to a shift in priorities. India’s aid allocation in the 2025 Union Budget has remained stable for Bangladesh, unlike the increases seen for other neighbours.

Security Measures and Border Management

To enhance border security, India plans to fence the 1,643-kilometer India-Myanmar border, following similar measures along the Bangladesh border. This decision addresses concerns over escalating conflict in Myanmar and ethnic violence in Manipur. India is also reconsidering its free movement regime, which grants visa-free travel up to 16 kilometres for border communities, due to rising issues like insurgent activities, drug trafficking, and illegal migration.

Economic Initiatives for Regional Connectivity

India recognizes economic integration as vital for regional stability and is advancing multiple infrastructure and digital initiatives. The Bharat Net Project aims to enhance digital infrastructure in northeastern states, with 5G services available in 779 districts as of December 2024. Expanding 4G services to border villages enhances connectivity, facilitating trade. India is investing in transport corridors like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Project, although Myanmar’s instability has delayed progress and complicated trade efforts.

Strategic Calculations in a Complex Neighbourhood

India’s approach to the Myanmar-Bangladesh dynamics focuses on balancing security, economic development, and diplomacy. The decision to fence the Myanmar border prioritizes security, potentially affecting local economies and cultural ties. India aims to maintain regional influence amidst China’s growing presence while fostering cooperation with Bangladesh’s new leadership on connectivity and security.

Conclusion

India’s engagement with Myanmar and Bangladesh is driven by security, economic, and geopolitical factors. Stability in these regions is essential for India’s national security, particularly in its northeastern states, which face cross-border insurgencies and trafficking. Economic initiatives like the Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Multimodal Project aim to strengthen trade and reduce reliance on China.

India seeks to balance relations with both neighbours while countering China’s influence, engaging with Myanmar’s military, and supporting democratic efforts in Bangladesh. However, challenges such as the Rohingya crisis and border conflicts hinder progress. To ensure national interests and promote regional stability, India should focus on border security, infrastructure development, and diplomatic coordination. Adapting policies in response to Myanmar’s internal issues and political changes in Bangladesh will be crucial for effective engagement and regional cooperation.