By: Nabhjyot Arora, Research Analyst, GSDN

‘Tuesday’s Pager Explosions’ led to the detonation of pagers and radios in Syria and Lebanon on September 17, 2024 targeting the Iran-backed Lebanese group ‘Hezbollah’ takes the attention to the Israel-Gaza War initiated on October 07, 2023 when the Palestinian militant group ‘Hamas’ launched land, sea, and airstrikes on Israel, from the Gaza Strip. Lebanon blamed the attacks on Israel, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) retaliated with air strikes, followed by an incursion of ground troops and armoured vehicles in the West Bank & the Gaza Strip. As of September 2024, over 42,000 casualties have been (40,972 Palestinian and 1,478 Israeli) reported, which includes the killing of civilians, security personnel, and journalists. Hamas launched an offensive ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’ – an operation which targeted airports, civilian infrastructure, and military fortifications since October 2023, to contain the Israeli storming and blockade of the ‘Al-Aqsa Mosque’ in East Jerusalem, revered as the third holiest site of Islam. The militant wing Ezzedeen Al-Qassam Brigades launched 5000 projectiles and took hostages in captivity, which stands at 1,205 as of September 2024.

Looking Back in the Past

The State of Israel was created on May 14, 1948 which was followed by the Arab-Israeli War, establishing independence for Israel, with mass displacement of Palestinians termed as – ‘The Nakba’ to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank Region. The land initially inhabited by the Jews and the Arab Palestinians was divided into the State of Israel inhabited by the Jews and the Palestinian territory of ‘The Gaza Strip’ and the ‘West Bank’. The West Bank, including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, was administered from 1948 to 1967 by Jordan and Egypt respectively, and was taken over by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967. Israel ceded control in 2005, under the government of the former Prime Minister of Israel – Ariel Sharon, however, external control was retained by Israel on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. The Palestinian Authority established partial autonomy to self-govern the West Bank Region, as per the 1993 Oslo Accords, signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which is the de jure governing authority over the Gaza Strip. The independence was time-bound, as the militant group ‘Hamas’ won local elections in 2006, and took control of the territory in 2007, after defeating the political party ‘Fatah’.

Militias threatening stability?

Hamas – a fundamentalist Sunni Islamist Group is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, backed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which aims at ending the blockade established by Israel, over electricity, water, telecommunication, and employment opportunities, as well as the coastline and airspace of Gaza Strip. Structural unemployment and fortification of the region to prevent tunnelling into Israel, as well as the demand raised to free prisoners in Israeli prisons, were other reasons for the militant attack, which was undertaken by penetrating the fences by tunnelling deep into the Israeli territory. Rockets were launched barring the Iron Dome air defense system, followed by attacks on military installations and settlements in southern Israel, with sirens heard as far as Tel Aviv and Beersheba.

The attacks affected regional stability, especially at a time when Jerusalem was witnessing a domestic crisis due to protests organized against the judicial reforms in Israel. The retaliation further put a halt to the Arab-Israeli normalization process, with Egypt, Jordan, and the United States placed under pressure to sever ties with Israel. Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates sought normalization of ties based on the Abraham Accords. The Arab Sunni states in the region designated ‘Hamas’ as a terrorist organization, which poses an existential threat to the Middle East and the Levant Region. The involvement of Syria, Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon in the conflict, with the active use of proxies led Israel to escalate the attacks on the militant groups operating in the region. Israel initiated carrying out air raids against the arms transfer by Iran, with intense shelling in southern Lebanon. Iran-linked militias remain active on the Syria-Iraq border, while drone attacks launched from Iraq target the ports in southern Israel, and attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea Region.

The Two State Solution – A Diplomatic Resolve

The United States has been working to broker a ceasefire to avert a full-blown war, however, Israel has refused to agree to a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, while the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported the assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut strike in Lebanon on September 27, 2024. Hezbollah is firing rockets as far as Tel Aviv and Haifa, while Israel has been targeting south of Beirut – the power centre of Hezbollah. The conflict has even resulted in reverse migration to Syria from Lebanon, with the possibility of an influx of refugees to Jordan and Egypt – as reported by the United Nations Refugee Agency – UNHRC. Jordan, meanwhile, has been engaged in defending its territory against the Iranian missiles, which led to domestic criticism. Balancing interests between Iran and Israel is crucial to secure the energy sector, due to the petroleum exports transiting via the shipping route in the Red Sea Region, which come under attacks by the Houthi militias backed by Iran, thereby creating a diplomatic crisis.

Oman and Qatar involved in shuttle diplomacy seek to prevent destabilization of the region, with the possibility of the renewal of diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States. The expansion of the Axis of Resistance which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shi’ite armed groups in Iraq and Syria threatens regional stability with the destabilization of ties involving Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. An escalation in attacks on Hezbollah could also lead the Republic of Iran to escalate the conflict, to defend a regional ally. Ali Khamenei – the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran favours deterrence, potentially due to sanctions imposed on the country and ongoing attempts at reviving the nuclear program. Any destabilization could further stall the revival of Tehran’s economy, with the possibility of escalating political instability in Beirut. An economic slowdown is also possible in Israel, due to its growth projected at 1.5 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025. Despite the possibility of economic downfall, the country is opposed to a ‘two-state solution’ as it aims towards establishing full security control over Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.

Is Israel Trapped?

Israel has involved itself on both fronts – the Gaza Strip as well as southern Lebanon, possibly trapping the country amidst drone and rocket attacks and counterattacks. The country has been facing internal instability political challenges, refugee crisis with the populace shifting to the south as the north of Israel has eventually become inhabitable.

Suspension of 10 percent of the arms export licenses by the United Kingdom – it granted weapon manufacturers for export to Israel, and demand for an arms embargo in the United States depicts a potential shift in the foreign policy – depending on the results of the 2024 US Presidential elections – would carve the way for the future of Israel. The shift follows the killing of the senior Hezbollah Commander in Beirut, in addition to carrying out strikes in armed groups that are armed, funded, and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The Republic of Iran stands against the winning of the United States Presidential candidate and the former President of the United States – Donald Trump, due to containing Tehran’s regional influence, while backing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in establishing its presence in the Middle East.

Regional Escalation & Domestic Instability

Protests back at home against rising attacks on Jews, an increase in the threat of terror attacks, and protests against the transfer of funds to Israel can further determine the role of the United States in the Middle East. Stepping back by Israel and the United States can also leave room for the expansion of China and Russia. Syria and Iran can continue smuggling weapons to the West Bank, while Hezbollah could continue attacking the Golan Heights – in southwest Syria, as Lebanon is also reported to be home to 1.5 million Syrians. The attack on October 07, 2023 was taken as an intelligence failure for Israel, while the escalation of attacks on militias in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip remains another lesson in intel failure. Ongoing attacks, meanwhile, violate United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – passed in 2006 – imposing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

The US Elections 2024 – Way Ahead

An international intervention remains critical to secure peace in the region, in addition to disarming the militias operating in the region. The de-escalation also involves announcing a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, however, it would require dismantling the threat of potential escalation of the conflict by the nexus of violence in the region – the Republic of Iran – as stated by Israel’s United Nations Ambassador Danny Danon. Israel, however, can avert de-escalation so soon with the possibility of domestic instability and potential changes in the far-right government, while the country could face the external challenge of isolation, due to the failure to contain Hamas so far, and spiralling conflict in the northern front.

The US Department of State, however, continues authorizing the transfer of arms and ammunition, including the F-35A fighter jets. Demilitarization of Hamas and training of the security personnel associated with the Palestinian Authority could possibility reduce tensions; however, the killing of Hezbollah’s top leadership threatens the possibility of de-escalation, though the militia could be further weakened with Israel establishing control over tunnels and contain stockpiling and smuggling of weapon. Israel still has a looming challenge of a potential fall in investment, downgrading of credit ratings, high interest rates, high fiscal deficit, and loss of revenue on tourism and infrastructure, with an escalation in reconstruction costs. Israelis have been taking to the streets to protest against the government’s handling of the conflict and a failure to secure the safe return of hostages. Ongoing protests as well as against the Gaza Policy, could affect the outcome of elections and the foreign policy stance, while a surge in antisemitism could push for a diplomatic solution to the crisis in the Middle East.