By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
In 546 BCE, King Croesus of Lydia (part of modern-day Türkiye), the richest kingdom of that era, decided to annex Persia (modern-day Iran). As the news reached Cyrus of Persia, he knew that defeating the Lydians would be near-impossible knowing the superior army the Lydians were. Nonetheless, Cyrus ensured that on contact with the Lydians, the Persians would shoot arrows at the Lydians at an intensity never heard of in those times, ensuring that the supply of arrows was uninterrupted being transported on camel-back from the hinterland. Within three days of contact, the Lydians had to take cover behind big shields and soon the Lydians were defeated by the Persians in the Battle of Thymbra and Lydia was annexed into Persia.
Centuries later, the Battle of Thymbra in which an inferior Persian Army defeated the superior Lydian Army would be used extensively for war-preparedness as well as for information warfare, when Iran would have to face two great military powers, USA and Israel in the war.
On February 11, 1979 when the Islamic Revolution in Iran was successful, 52 Americans in Iran found themselves as hostages to the revolutionaries and for the next 444 days, the Americans did everything possible to get the hostages released, including a failed military attempt named Operation Eagle Claw, but in vain.
Exhausted with all options, the Americans signed the Algiers Accords with the Iranians on January 19, 1981 which included the clause that USA would never militarily strike Iran, eventually saw the release of the 52 American hostages.
For the next seven years, the Iranians trusted the Americans that they would never militarily strike their nation. But their trust was shattered on April 18, 1988 when USA launched Operation Praying Mantis that saw two warships and three naval boats of Iran destroyed, apart from one fighter aircraft damaged and 56 Iranian soldiers killed, as the Iran-Iraq War was in progress.
That day, Iran realised that defeating USA in a conventional war was impossible as the Americans were a formidable military. The Iranians then started working on asymmetrical warfare to take on the American and Israeli military might, whenever these two nations would launch a full-fledged war on Iran, which they were certain would happen someday.
Iran focussed on developing world-class missiles and drones in huge numbers, which would prove handy when war would erupt in 2026, a lesson learnt from the Battle of Thymbra of 546 BCE when arrows were showered incessantly on the Lydians.
February 28, 2026 was the day when USA and Israel launched the full-fledged war on Iran. The Iranians were well-prepared for this day as the last 38 years were spent on developing missiles and drones, apart from many other measures, which saw them stand steadfast to the fury unleashed by the Americans and Israelis.
In 2003, as the world watched with relative ease with which the Americans decimated the Iraqi top leadership in just three weeks into the Iraq War also known as the Second Gulf War, that began on March 20, 2003, the Iranians wasted no time and on January 01, 2005, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was divided into 31 provincial commands by General Mohammed Ali Jafari, with one provincial command earmarked for the defence of Tehran and the balance 30 for each of Iran’s 30 provinces, which came to be known as mosaic defence.
Such was the efficacy of the provincial commands that at 9.40 am Iran Time on February 28, 2026, when the top Iranian leadership was annihilated by the Americans and Israelis, within the next hour from 10.40 am Iran Time onwards, the Iranians started retaliating and on March 25, 2026, the Iranians had destroyed all the 13 US military bases in the Middle East and the 40,000 American soldiers in these 13 military bases had shifted to either rented apartments or hotels. The soldiers of the superpower called USA were working from home!
On March 27, 2026, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, the Chief of Staff of the Israel Defence Forces told the Israeli cabinet that if Israel’s war with Iran prolonged any further, the Israeli military was on the verge of collapse.
No wonder at 2 am Iran Time on April 08, 2026, President Donald Trump surprisingly announced USA & Israel’s ceasefire to the 40-day war with Iran, hours after proclaiming that a civilisation would be wiped out from the face of the earth, an apparent reference to Iran.
USA and Israel could achieve only one of their four military aims when they had commenced their war on Iran that included annihilating the top Iranian leadership, effecting regime change, destroying Iran’s war potential and seizing Iran’s enriched uranium, though Iran had been battered militarily and economically.
Though they were successful in annihilating the Iranian top leadership on February 28, 2026, few days later on March 07, 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei replaced his slain father Ayatollah Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader. Over 60% of the Iranian war-capability remains intact and its enriched uranium still safe.
Adding to the American woes was the control of the Strait of Hormuz that the Iranians wrested at 4 pm Iran Time on February 28, 2026 and since has added a new military aim for the Americans.
The Iranians had only one military aim when USA and Israel attacked on February 28, 2026 and that was not to have a pro-American leadership in its country whatever be the costs, which they have been successful.
A war has one only winner and the side that doesn’t achieve its military objectives is deemed as having lost the war. Iran yet again had ensured the pyrrhic victory as it had done in 2025.
Though technically, an indefinite ceasefire is in effect between the three warring sides, neither USA nor Israel have the capacity and capability to break the ceasefire with Iran, apart from the legal restrictions on the US President in the form of War Powers Act, 1973. It is a matter of time that the official agreement for complete cessation of hostilities will be signed.
Iran, the country with economic sanctions since the last 47 years, isolated internationally, branded by the Western media as a failed nation, by emerging victorious in the 40-day war with USA and Israel has taught many lessons to nations at war-risk.
Lessons for nations at war-risk
The Iran War of 2026 that was fought by against two nations considered militarily superior holds immense lessons for nations at war-risk that includes Taiwan and India, where the wars are on the horizon with Taiwan expected to face war by China in end-2027 and India the two-front war by China and Pakistan any time after 2030.
Importance of National Security Strategy: Iran formulated its’s national security strategy in 1989, a year after its war with Iraq ended. A national security strategy ensures the whole-of-the-nation approach on thwarting external threats and obviates a country’s organisations working in silos.
Need for robust indigenous navigational system: In this era of uncertain geopolitical upheaval, nations at war-risk need to have either indigenous navigational systems or have tie-ups with nations where trust is totally assured. On January 01, 2026, Iran shifted its navigational system reliance from the American GPS to the Chinese BeiDou. This move paid Iran rich dividends during the 40-day war.
War Games need to be realistic: War games in a nation’s military need to be realistic as the correct lessons learnt go a long way in shaping the nation’s military response when the balloon goes up (military slang meaning when war commences). In 2002, the American Military conducted the war game Exercise Millennium Challenge in which Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper was heading the Red Force (representing Iran) against the Blue Force (representing USA). Within 24 hours of the war game commencing, the Red Force defeated the Blue Force using asymmetry warfare. Pressure was exerted on Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper to change his strategy to ensure victory for the Blue Force. In disgust, the General Officer resigned. Had the Americans learnt the correct lessons from this war game, its war with Iran in 2026 would have seen the Americans victorious. The importance of a famous saying in the military circles “It is better to lose on the sand model, than on the field of battle” doesn’t need any further emphasis.
Critical civilian infrastructure manufacturing defence equipment needs to be underground: Despite USA and Israel having the latest fighter aircrafts and missiles, 60% of the Iranian war-fighting capability remains intact as most of their defence manufacturing installations are underground. This war has brought out an important learning that anything that can be weaponised will be weaponised and there are no rules of engagement. Anything that can be struck, will be struck.
Adequate reserves of energy and ammunition: Nations at war-risk need to have reserves of energy and ammunition for six months at intense rate of engagement. The Iran War brought out how woefully most nations were under-prepared for energy reserves. USA expended 1430 Patriot missiles in the 40-day war, out of the total inventory of 2330. The delivery timeline of a Patriot missile is 42 months and annual production is 650 numbers.
Airpower will be quintessential in winning wars: Despite Iran having an outdated air force as compared to the modern fleet of the Americans and Israelis, its two-third air force remains intact and was able to strike the targets in the Middle East with impunity.
Learning from history: Most Iranian government ministers and officials are either postgraduates or doctorates. It is compulsory for all Iranian military officers, irrespective of the service that they belong, to read books and write military papers. Iran knew that the Strait of Hormuz could become their choke point in case of the naval blockade during a war, as 90% of the Iranian oil was transported through this water body and oil was the mainstay of the Iranian economy. The naval blockades of World War I and World War II were studied in depth in which Britain had successfully blockaded Germany using naval power. Two important lessons emerged. For a naval blockade to be successful, either a nation is an island or the nation on whom the naval blockade is being undertaken has animosity with its neighbouring countries and importantly, ground invasion is a must. It still took four years in the World War I and six years in the World War II for the Allied Forces to defeat Germany, despite the successful naval blockade and Germany having hostile neighbours, which resulted after the ground invasion of Germany. Iran knew that terrain and time were in its favour. Iran maintained good relations with its neighbours Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It wasn’t surprising that as the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is in effect, Pakistan open six land-routes to Iran for trade on April 25, 2026. Ground invasion of Iran would be disastrous for USA and Israel as Iran is surrounded by mountains on all the four sides, and the 2440-kilometre-long sea coast on its western and southern side running parallelly to the Zagros and Makran mountainous ranges is rocky, making amphibious operations extremely risky. And to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for transporting oil, Iran constructed the 42-inch Goreh-Jask oil pipeline on land of length 1100 kilometres with a capacity of pumping 1 million barrels per day. This oil pipeline which terminates at the port of Bandar-e-Jask in the Gulf of Oman, was made operational on April 13, 2026, the day the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was announced by President Donald Trump.
Operationalise data as force-multiplier and strategic asset: Modern wars need data operationalisation as a force-multiplier and strategic asset during peace time as during war there will be no time to focus on this aspect. On January 22, 2026, Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister had warned that any American attack on Iran will be responded with attacks on the Middle East nations. The Iranians had all their data on the Middle East nations operationalised and ready for use. The Americans and the Middle East nations were dumbfounded by the speed of the Iranian retaliation when the war broke out.
Using AI to shorten the OODA loop: The Iran War has demonstrated that artificial intelligence will play an important role in the modern wars which require near-instantaneous decision cycles requiring minimal lag between sensing and shooting, thereby shifting from human-centric to human-machine teaming. While USA used Claude AI, Maven and the artificial intelligence platform from Domino Data Lab built under Project Ammo, Iran used software like Aria and Heydar, though exact details of Iran using the artificial intelligence are unavailable.
Importance of strategic communication: Iran not only won the war on the battlefield but on the internet browsers too. The strategic communication of Iran be it on leading social media handles like X and Instagram, was par-excellence and gained global eyeballs. All the Iranian embassies and consulates the world over, rolled out social media posts mocking USA and Israel.
Building psychological resilience: The narrative of the Battle of Thymbra was repeatedly played in all forms of the Iranian media be it print, electronic and social, building up the psychological resilience of the Iranians preparing them for the war that would happen someday. When the time of reckoning came, the Iranians stood united with their government irrespective of their political and religious differences and the economic hardships that they had been enduring for decades. It would be worthwhile to mention that since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, 16 major protests have taken place against the Iranian government by its citizens, with the latest one being from December 28, 2025 to January 19, 2026. But never could the Americans and Israelis capitalise on the protests to affect the regime change in Iran.
The quality of soldier will be of paramount importance: Whatever be the technological advancements or possession of niche weapon systems, ultimately the quality of soldier will prevail. The Iranian soldier stood steadfast against the lethal and modern combat power that the Americans and Israelis unleashed. With whatever weaponry in hand, the Iranian soldier did not give up which eventually led Iran to victory as it accomplished its military aim.
Conclusion
The Iran War of 2026 has taught numerous lessons to nations at war-risk. But it is also important to remember the quote of Cristopher Fowler “If any lesson from war is to be learned, it must be always to prepare for the unexpected and face the unthinkable”. Each war will be differently fought than the previous one, but requires lessons of each war to be assimilated, the foundations of warfare have remained the same.
When the history of this era is written three decades down the line, the Iran War of 2026 will be President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benajamin Netanyahu’s biggest blunder, as it would herald the decline of USA as a superpower, the emergence of a new nexus RIC (Russia-Iran-China), the rise of Iran as a regional power and the creation of Palestine as an independent nation. In few years’ time, war in the Middle East will be initiated by Iran on Israel, which will result in Palestine emerging as an independent nation.
The Iran War of 2026 is the most consequential war after the World War II ended in 1945, for its implications and learnings would be of immense consequence as a nation economically sanctioned and internationally isolated for 47 years, defeated two military giants USA and Israel in the 40-day war.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is the Founder-Editor, Global Strategic & Defence News and has authored the book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24.
