By: Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd), Editor, GSDN
On January 24, 1972, a little over a month after Pakistan had lost East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, in the war with India, in the city of Multan in the Punjab province of Pakistan, a conference was held, presided over by the Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto which came to be known as the Multan Conference.
The Multan Conference was the strategic planning session for Pakistan’s military establishment and in it three important decisions were taken for Pakistan’s future. One, Pakistan would go nuclear. Two, Pakistan will wage a war for Jammu & Kashmir at a suitable time. Three, Pakistan would bleed India with attrition through low-intensity conflict.
Pakistan went nuclear on May 28, 1998 when five simultaneous underground nuclear tests were conducted under the codename Chagai-I as the nuclear tests were carried out in the Ras Koh Hills in the Chagai district of Balochistan province of Pakistan. This was followed by the Chagai-II nuclear tests two days later on May 30, 1998 in the Kharan Desert of Balochistan province.
Pakistan had become a nuclear nation. The first decision of the Multan Conference for Pakistan to go nuclear had been fulfilled.
On July 05, 1977, General Zia-ul-Haq, the Chief of the Army Staff of the Pakistan Army, seized power in a coup d’etat by over-throwing Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and anointed himself as the Chief Martial Law Administrator. The same year, the earlier decision taken in the Multan Conference of bleeding India with attrition through low-intensity conflict, was formalised as a military doctrine called “Bleed India with a Thousand Cuts” and is till date taught to mid-level officers of the Pakistan Army, Navy and Air Force undergoing the Staff Course in the Command and Staff College, Quetta.
Pakistan first put to use this military doctrine of “Bleed India with a Thousand Cuts” in Punjab, India where it supported terrorism from 1980 till 1995 when terrorism was wiped out from this border state of India. Terrorism in Punjab that lasted for 15 years saw 13,442 civilians and security forces personnel being killed.
As terrorism was waning in Punjab, in end-1989 Pakistan started supporting terrorism in another border state of India, Jammu & Kashmir where terrorism still continues for over 36 years. Till 2024, total of 42,143 civilians and security forces personnel have been killed in Jammu & Kashmir due to the ongoing terrorism.
The third decision of the Multan Conference to bleed India with attrition through low-intensity conflict too was bearing fruits for Pakistan.
The second decision of the Multan Conference to wage a war on India for Jammu & Kashmir was nowhere near fructification as India being a superior military power to Pakistan had not only defeated Pakistan in every military confrontation, but had also dismembered Pakistan into two nations in 1971.
But Pakistan saw the glimmer of hope to wage the war on India on March 14, 2013, when Xi Jinping became the President of China.
Xi Jinping on becoming China’s President realised that with the immense money power that China had, it was now time to fulfil China’s military aims. The foremost being Taiwan, followed by Spratly Islands and then the Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh in India, as with the age that Xi Jinping had on hand, these three military aims of China could only be targeted. If successful, this would make Xi Jinping the tallest leader in China, after Mao Zedong.
But to fructify the first of the two military aims ie Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China faced the Malacca Dilemma. When China and Pakistan signed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on April 20, 2025, the Malacca Dilemma no longer bothered China as included in CPEC was a road corridor linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to the Gwadar port in Pakistan.
China faced another problem. It had not fought any war after 1979 when it was defeated by Vietnam. That year, China also announced the one-child policy which came into effect on September 25, 1980.
As China focussed on its economic growth and resolved not to take part in any military confrontation after 1979 till it had economic heft, the question often arose of its quality of soldiers and weaponry as neither the PLA soldiers nor weaponry being produced indigenously, had been tested in any global confrontation. China’s defeat by Vietnam on March 16, 1979 hung heavily. The one-child policy too started having negative effects as the Chinese families increasing started getting reluctant to send their only child in the Chinese military.
China found the answer that the one-child policy was creating for the PLA. Learning quick from the US-led 42-nation multinational coalition force which attacked Iraq in 1991, in which modern technology namely computers were used for the first time in combat, China started working on multi-domain operations. This technological development of its weapon systems had the latent aim to offset the quality of its soldiers. When the USA promulgated the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine, 2001 wherein the future wars would involve the non-kinetic domains comprising cyber, space and electromagnetic spectrum in addition to the kinetic domains of land, sea and air, China had already started moving in the field of the multi-domain operations.
Eventually, the one-child policy in China was cancelled on January 01, 2016 to address the aging population, the declining birthrate and the problems it was creating for recruitment of soldiers in the PLA.
China did not have to wait long to test its weapons in a live battle scenario. Sensing that differences between India and Pakistan would never end and some or the other military hostilities between the two nations would eventually happen, China upped its sale of weapons to Pakistan so that in such a scenario, its weapons would be used by Pakistan and it would built-up on the feedback received.
In December 2001, after Pakistan sent terrorists to attack the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, the two neighbours almost went to war with India launching Operation Parakaram with forces mobilised for over a year on the borders. Though, this did not result in war but China well understood that some military confrontation between India and Pakistan would happen sooner or later.
In the period 2001 to 2005, only 11.43% of the Pakistan military’s weapons were of Chinese origin. This increased to 38% in the period 2005-2009. In the period 2009-2014, it further increased to 51% and after Xi Jinping became China’s President for the first time in 2013, the period 2014-2019 saw the Pakistan having 73% of its weapons from China.
Then came the Balakot surgical air strike carried out by India in Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir on February 26, 2019 in response to the Pulwama terrorist attack carried out by Pakistan in India twelve days earlier. Pakistan countered India’s Balakot surgical airstrike by Operation Swift Retort the very next day,in which for the first time ever, Chinese made weapons were used in live combat apart from the American weapons that Pakistan used. Buoyed, China further increased its sales of weapons to Pakistan and in the period 2019-2024, 83% of the Pakistan military’s inventory came from China.
In May 2025, Pakistan and India were embroiled in the 88-hour military confrontation called Operation Sindoor by India in retaliation to the Pahalgam terrorist attack carried out by Pakistan in India in April 2025. In this military confrontation, Pakistan only used Chinese weapons against India.
On July 04, 2025 Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army in a seminar in New Delhi candidly spoke of Pakistan receiving live updates of the Indian Army’s vectors from China, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours were embroiled in the 88-hour military confrontation from May 07-10, 2025. The General Officer also mentioned of China using Pakistan as a live laboratory for testing its weapons. The 2025 Annual Report to the US Congress by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission tabled on November 19, 2025, echoes the statements of the Indian Army General.
China-Pakistan relations after Xi Jinping becoming the Chinese President in 2013
To circumvent the “Malacca Dilemma” that bothered China for decades, Xi Jinping after becoming China’s President for the first time on March 14, 2013, a few months later, proposed the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project. Included in the CPEC is the Gwadar-Xinjiang Corridor which is a 3000-kilometer road linking China’s Xinjiang region to the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which would obviate China’s “Malacca Dilemma”.
For China, the Gwadar-Xinjiang Corridor is the jugular vein in case the Malacca Strait was to be ever blocked by the Indian Navy or the US Navy.
On April 20, 2015 Xi Jinping visited Pakistan on his first state visit as the President of China.
Before embarking on the two-day visit to Pakistan, Xi Jinping authored an op-ed in Pakistan’s Daily Times titled “Pak-China Dosti Zindabad” (Long Live the Pakistan-China Friendship), in which he wrote that “I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own Brother” and also wrote that “the friendship between the two nations was higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey”.
On April 20, 2015, Pakistan and China signed an agreement to commence work on CPEC, on infrastructure projects worth US$ 45.6 billion during Xi Jinping’s maiden state visit to Pakistan, setting the foundation for a strong and robust Pakistani-Chinese friendship with underlying military overtones, which China would many times call this relation with Pakistan as “Iron Brothers” and “All Weather Friends”.
As the ties between China and Pakistan strengthened under Xi Jinping, Pakistan promulgated its first-ever National Security Policy 2022-2026 on January 14, 2022 which mentioned India as its primary conventional threat and rejected India’s abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.
China-Pakistan’s relations post-India’s abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A
On August 05, 2019 after India had abrogated Article 370 & 35A of the Constitution that related to Jammu & Kashmir, two countries did not take it lying down and as time would reveal these two countries – China & Pakistan, clearly irked by India’s move, would step up pressure on India in due course and move in a tighter embrace with each other.
Four days later on August 09, 2019, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan dashed in a sudden two-day visit to China. In back-to-back meetings with the top Chinese leadership spread over two days on August 09-10, 2019, Pakistan and China decided that a strong response would be given to India’s move of abrogation of the two articles.
On August 11, 2019 the Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr. S Jaishankar visited China to explain the abrogation of the two contentious articles of the Constitution that were for long perceived as the biggest hinderance in the growth and security of Jammu & Kashmir by an overwhelming majority of Indian citizens. But China had already made up its mind during its meetings with Shah Mehmood Qureshi, on the previous two days.
Pakistan eventually tasked its terrorists operating in Jammu & Kashmir since 1989 when terrorism broke out in India’s northern most state (now a Union Territory), and had been largely confined to the North of Pir Panjal Range (NPPR) which includes the Kashmir Valley, to shift their operations to the South of Pir Panjal Range (SPPR) which includes Jammu region.
But this wasn’t as easy as it seemed due to the heavy deployment of the Indian security forces on both the sides of the Pir Panjal Range, the mountainous range that roughly separates the Kashmir Valley from the Jammu region.
It was here that China came to the aid of its all-weather ally. Now, was the litmus test of China to show Pakistan that it meant each word that Xi Jinping had written in his op-ed of April 2015.
Just as all seemed well between China and India on the face of it, orders were given by the Central Military Commission (CMC) to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to plan an incursion in eastern Ladakh of India.
In early-April 2020, as the snow started melting in the higher reaches, the PLA started intruding in eastern Ladakh and the stand-off began between the PLA and the Indian Army that lasted over four years and included the bloody Galwan Valley Clash of June 15, 2020 which saw 20 soldiers of the Indian Army killed in action.
This resulted in the Indian Army redeploying its troops and about two divisions strength were moved from the Jammu region to eastern Ladakh to be deployed on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) opposite China.
This was exactly what Pakistan needed. With a thinner Indian security forces deployment in the Jammu region, Pakistan stepped up terrorism in the Jammu region on the SPPR since early-2024. The relatively quiet Jammu region became as volatile as the Kashmir Valley.
The year 2021 saw three important military developments between China and Pakistan. One, Pakistan Army Officers started being posted to the Western Theatre Command of China. Two, a direct Optical Fibre Cable was laid between the Western Theatre Command of China in Chengdu and the General Headquarters (GHQ) of the Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi for swift and uninterrupted communications. Three, Pakistan opened the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Computing in Rawalpindi, in which the Chinese were wholly involved.
The military cooperation between China and Pakistan intensified since 2019, particularly in terms of air force capabilities and increased conduct of joint military exercises to include all six domains of modern warfare – land, sea, air, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space.
China’s leadership for the three future wars
Xi Jinping’s age on being sworn in as China’s President for the first time on March 14, 2013 was 60 years. According to the 2022 World Bank data, the average life expectancy for a male in China is 75.96 years. Xi Jinping knew that he had about 20 years in hand to fulfil the military aims of China, as anyways after attaining the age of 80 years in 2033, old age would create problems for effective functioning.
Not wasting any time, as explained earlier CPEC was launched in 2015 as part of the BRI launched in 2013. On February 01, 2016, the PLA was reorganised into five theatre commands, subsequent to China declaring in 2014 that it was ready to fight in all six domains of modern warfare.
Now came the question of ensuring the continuity of leadership for the three wars that China would wage under Xi Jinping – Taiwan, Spratly Islands and the Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh in India.
In March 2018, the Chinese Constitution was amended that removed the two-term limit for the President and Vice President. A two-term limit has been incorporated in the Chinese Constitution in 1982 to prevent the concentration of power seen during the Mao Zedong era.
With this constitutional amendment, Xi Jinping who would have had to step down in 2023 in due course, now could remain China’s President as long as he wished to. In words, till China would have fought the three wars for Taiwan, Spratly Islands and Tawang district of India.
Xi Jinping is well aware that China alone could not fight the three wars and it needs the full support of Pakistan, to which it has been helping the nation generously.
Xi Jinping seems to have learnt the lesson from military history, that despite Germany & Italy forging the military alliance known as the Pact of Steel on May 22, 1939, just as Adolf Hitler had initially decided to attack Poland on August 26, 1939, he had received a telegram from Mussolini on August 25, 1939 that Italy would not support Germany in the attack on Poland, as Italy was not prepared and needed seven million tons of petroleum, six million tons of coal, two million tons of steel and 150 anti-aircraft batteries amongst other items for assured military support to Germany. Hitler had to postpone his decision to attack Poland at the last moment, and finally when he attacked Poland on September 01, 1939, Germany had no military support of Italy. Germany eventually not only lost the World War II but Germany was spilt into two nations and Hitler committed suicide.
Xi Jinping by giving full military, economic and diplomatic support to Pakistan has ensured that Pakistan remains in the tight grip of China.
But there was no leader in Pakistan who could stand rock-solid behind China and Xi Jinping. Operation Sindoor by India in May 2025 provided that answer to Xi Jinping.
Pakistan’s constitutional amendment for the two-front war on India
Though India defeated Pakistan in the 88-hour military conflict called Operation Sindoor by India and Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos by Pakistan, but the narrative propagated by Pakistan after the ceasefire came into effect between both the neighbours on May 10, 2025, carried a different connotation. And this narrative of Pakistan was supported on many occasions by the US President Donald Trump.
On May 07, 2025 at 1.05 am India Standard Time as India struck Pakistan, little later at 3.30 am Pakistan Standard Time, the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, was escorted to the Operations Room of the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, which is not only the army headquarters of the Pakistan Army but unofficially the nerve centre of Pakistan, as the Pakistan Army controls everything in Pakistan.
Thereafter till the ceasefire came into effect on May 10, 2025 between India and Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong visited the GHQ multiple times and after each visit, cabled the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in China giving feedback of each visit.
In the multiple briefings to the Chinese President during May 07-18, 2025, it was decided by Xi Jinping that General Asim Munir of Pakistan would spearhead Pakistan when China would wage the three wars under Xi Jinping and the same was conveyed to Pakistan.
Out of blue, the world was informed on May 20, 2025 that General Asim Munir had been promoted to the rank of Field Marshal. In the two trips to China, on July 24, 2025 and September 02, 2025, Field Marshal Asim Munir met the Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and the Chinese President Xi Jinping respectively. What was discussed in both the meetings has not been unravelled but it is for sure that something of great consequence was deliberated upon.
Field Marshal Asim Munir who was to initially retire on November 27, 2025 had got an extension in service by two years after a 2024 law in Pakistan extended the tenure of Pakistan’s service chiefs from three years to five years. He would now retire in 2027.
But this was not suiting the grandiose plans of Xi Jinping who wanted Field Marshal Asim Munir to spearhead Pakistan during the three wars to be fought under his Presidentship.
Pakistan had to find out the legal way out to keep Field Marshal Asim Munir in harness till Xi Jinping would remain in power.
On November 05, 2025, the 27th Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan was introduced by the Federal Government of Pakistan headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This amendment was passed by Pakistan’s National Assembly on November 13, 2025 which amended Article 243 of the Constitution of Pakistan, creating the appointment of the Chief of Defence Forces concurrent with the appointment of the Chief of the Army Staff while ensuring that the appointee remains in chair indefinitely, apart from other judicial and administrative provisions.
Field Marshal Asim Munir not only would become Pakistan’s first Chief of Defence Forces on November 27, 2025 when General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, the current Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Committee would retire and the appointment being tenanted would stand abolished, but also Field Marshal Asim Munir would remain in harness till he so desired.
With China having Xi Jinping as President-for-life and Pakistan having Field Marshal Asim Munir as the Chief of Defence Forces & Chief of the Army Staff-for-life, the final step for the two-front war on India has been taken.
Two-Front War on India
Three statements merit attention that will have bearing on India after five years. One, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, the Chief of Air Staff, Indian Air Force expressed concern on January 07, 2025 over the increased militarisation by China and Pakistan and the pace at which technology is growing at a very rapid pace in China.
Two, on March 17, 2025, General Upendra Dwivedi, the Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army, while delivering the fourth General Bipin Rawat Memorial Lecture in New Delhi remarked that two-front war was no longer a possibility-it’s a reality.
Three, on July 09, 2025, General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, stated that the convergence of interests between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh will have serious implications for India’s stability and security dynamics.
All timelines available in public domain point towards China and Pakistan waging the two-front war on India any time after 2030. Three important points that require consideration are enumerated below.
One, China commenced the construction of the Medog Dam on July 19, 2025 which is at a distance of just 30 kilometres from the India-China border in Arunachal Pradesh and whose completion year is 2030.
Two, the construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet railway line was commenced by China on August 19, 2025 and whose completion is in 2030.
Three, in the six naval dockyards of China, construction of two aircraft carriers, 15 nuclear submarines and 200 warships is going on day & night, which is to be completed in 2030.
Also, in 2030, Xi Jinping’s age would be 77 years, leaving him not much time in office.
After China’s war for Taiwan in 2027, the next big military target for China will be the Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh in India. War for Spratly Islands will be a mere skirmish as neither the USA nor any of the littoral nations of the South China Sea will intervene militarily.
On August 07, 2023, General Manoj Naravane (Retired), the 28th Chief of the Army Staff of the Indian Army, wrote in The Print that two-front war on India would be a disaster.
Much water has flown down the bridge since then. India released the Multi-Domian Operations Doctrine in August 2024. Beginning of this year saw the raising of Rudra Brigades and Bhairav light combat battalions by the Indian Army. Recently, in November 2025, the two-week military exercises were carried out by India codenamed Exercise Trishul, Exercise Astra Shakti & Exercise Poorvi Prachand Prahar, which were conducted in three different sectors of India, encompassing multi-domain operations, thereby depicting the two-front war scenario, for the first time since India became independent.
While Pakistan has and never will be ever a military challenge for India in a one-to-one military confrontation, it is the China challenge that India has to prepare for well. With Bangladesh turning hostile towards India after August 05, 2024, India has to be operationally prepared for any misadventure from Bangladesh too.
India has five years more to prepare for the two-front war and to be operationally ready for the third-front that can open up from Bangladesh. The famous saying goes “Even if there is 1% chance of a war, the nation has to be 100% prepared”. The next five years have to be the Great Indian Leap, for there are no runners up in a war.
General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff was correct in stating on August 26, 2025, “If you want peace, Prepare for war”. The war clouds on India have started darkening. Pakistan’s 27th Constitutional Amendment is the final step for the two-front war on India.
About the Author
Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is the Founder-Editor, Global Strategic & Defence News and has authored the book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24.
A well researched and written article with all the developing facts around India for three front war after 2027-28..sounds more realistic and well planned by our neighbours.
It is an acid test for India to prepare a defensive mode of its protection system while facing the 3 side open war.
Thanks for sharing the facts in detail and absolute clarity.