China’s Olive Branch to India.
There is one undeniable truth in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies. The only thing that remains constant is national interest. Alliances shift, friendships are opportunistic, and enmities are often dictated by strategic and economic compulsions rather than ideological commitments.
This brings us to the curious case of China extending an olive branch to India after the U.S. under Donald Trump imposed fresh tariffs on Chinese imports. Should India engage with China economically while tensions remain unresolved at the border? Or should it stand firm against Beijing’s opportunism? The answer isn’t simple, however, India should not bend its knee to China without securing tangible benefits.
The Tariff War and China’s Sudden Warmth Towards India
The Trump administration recently slapped reciprocal tariffs of 10-20% on Chinese goods, making them more expensive in the U.S. and thereby reducing China’s competitiveness. The fact is, for decades, the U.S. outsourced large-scale manufacturing to China while focusing on innovation and high-end technological development. This led to China becoming the world’s factory, but also resulted in tensions as the U.S. saw its trade deficit balloon.
After years of hostility, China is now suddenly calling for economic cooperation with India. The rhetoric has changed from aggressive posturing at the border to “Let the Elephant and Dragon Dance Together”—a statement made by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But why this sudden shift, well, the answer lies in geopolitics.
China’s Global Isolation
China finds itself increasingly isolated on the world stage – it has tensions with the European Union over its stance on Ukraine. It is in an escalating trade war with the U.S..It has territorial disputes with Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines.It continues to have border skirmishes with India over the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Hence, with a growing list of adversaries, China is now desperately seeking new allies. It sees India as a potential economic partner, not out of goodwill but out of necessity.
But India must tread cautiously – China has violated trust multiple times, whether through territorial incursions, economic coercion, or debt-trap diplomacy. Simply put, China does not seek friendships, just like the America, it seeks leverage.
The U.S.-India Equation Is A Complicated Friendship
While Trump’s trade war with China indirectly benefits India, he hasn’t exactly been a reliable partner either. He has accused India of unfair trade practices, calling it “tariff king”, pointing to high import duties in sectors like automobiles.
At the same time, he needs India –
- H-1B Visa Conundrum: The U.S. tech industry heavily relies on Indian talent through the H-1B visa program, also known as the “genius visa.” Any drastic cuts to this program would cripple Silicon Valley.
2. Defense Partnerships: The U.S. is trying to position itself as India’s key defense supplier, but its past history of favoring Pakistan over India has created trust issues.
3. Geopolitical Strategy: The U.S. wants India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Therefore, despite Trump’s unpredictable policies, India and the U.S. are bound by strategic necessity. However, India’s reliance on U.S. cooperation should not come at the cost of independent policymaking.
Why India Should Be Cautious of China’s Overtures
India’s biggest concern with China is not trade, but trust. Economic cooperation is possible, but only under the following conditions –
- China Must Return All Occupied Territories – Border disputes, particularly along the LAC, remain a major roadblock. If China truly wants better relations, it should return Indian territories it has encroached upon.
2. Clear Demarcation of Borders – A permanent border resolution should be achieved through joint commissions with equal representation from both sides. This must result in a clearly marked internationally recognized boundary.
Until these conditions are met, China cannot expect India to engage in full-fledged economic cooperation. No country can afford to trade freely with an adversary that encroaches on its land.
Russia. The Silent Power Player
Meanwhile, in this game of global power politics, Russia remains a key player. The U.S., despite its vocal support for Ukraine, has now declared its intent to impose sanctions on Russia. However, history has shown that Russia is largely unaffected by Western sanctions.
In fact, a miscalculation on America’s part could push Russia and China even closer, which would be a direct threat to both the U.S. and India. Historically, the U.S. has made short-term decisions that have cost India dearly—for instance, in the 1960s, it refused to sell weapons to India but readily armed Pakistan. This forced India into a long-standing defense relationship with Russia, which continues to this day, with 60-65% of Indian military equipment sourced from Russia.
Now, the U.S. is urging India to cut defense ties with Russia, but India remains skeptical. Unlike the U.S., Russia has been a consistent ally. India cannot risk buying American weapons only to find itself abandoned when political leadership changes in Washington. Geopolitical consistency matters.
The Last Bit. India Must Prioritize Self-Sufficiency
Neither China nor the U.S. can be fully trusted. The only viable solution for India is self-reliance in manufacturing, technology, and defense. A strong, independent India will be in a position to dictate its own terms rather than choosing between unreliable partners.
As for China’s “Elephant-Dragon Dance”, India must ensure that it is not merely being used as a pawn in China’s larger strategic game. Trade is fine, but not at the cost of sovereignty.
Hence, India should engage with China only if it gets clear strategic advantages. America remains a complicated ally, but still a necessary one. Russia’s importance cannot be ignored, despite U.S. pressure. Self-reliance is the only true path to long-term security and economic stability.
If anything can be learnt from the recent geopolitical upheavals is this – India must play smart, stay firm, and never compromise on national interest.
