By: Megha Mittal, Research Analyst, GSDN
Military exercise between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Sea of Oman in October 2024 marks a new development in the Middle East geopolitics. A rivalry, for long, exists between Saudi Arabia and Iran driven by difference in ideology, sectarian affiliations, and geopolitical influence. Their competition expressed through proxy wars and diplomatic standoffs is evident over the Yemen conflict, Syrian war, and the war in Iraq. However, the military exercises in 2023 are of great symbolic importance and potential change in regional dynamics. This article outlines implications of such exercises with respect to historical context, geopolitical implications, impacts on regional conflicts, and broader implications for global security.
Historical Context of Saudi-Iran Relations
For many decades, Iran held an animosity against Saudi Arabia so deeply rooted and much of it is based on political and religious differences. The Islamic Revolution, held in 1979 in Iran, heightened the animosity to a great extent by implementing Iran’s theocracy within its borders. Especially as it concerned the government of Iran’s backing of Shia militias and political organizations in the area, both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen-whose members were a minority, Sunni in Saudi, the conflict with Saudi Arabia flared over the area.
The two most significant theaters of this struggle have been Yemen and Syria. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. In Syria, the two nations have taken diametrically opposing positions during the civil war—Saudi Arabia has supported opposition groups against Assad’s regime, while Iran has backed Assad. These conflicts have deepened the sectarian divide and significantly contributed to the longstanding hostility between these two regional powers.
Despite all these tensions, in 2023, there was this great breakthrough in the diplomatic front between Saudi Arabia and Iran led by China. It followed a military drill that showed the end of one and the beginning of another phase in that relationship.
Strategic Implication of such an event for Saudi Arabia
This would, in itself, be of major strategic implications for Saudi Arabia, as this would mark a shift in its foreign policy and regional strategy. Traditionally, Saudi security was so closely tied to its alliance with the United States because the latter provided it with military support against Iranian aggression. However, following the decline of U.S. influence in the region, the Kingdom has sought to diversify its alliances.
This is because Saudi Arabia is forced to reposition itself with the growing security threat from Iran and its allies, which include Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iranian militias in Iraq. Military cooperation with Iran allows Saudi Arabia to improve its security without having a heavy dependence on the United States and at the same time aligning itself with the greater strategy of balancing relations with Western powers and new emerging global players like China and Russia.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint of the world oil trade, thereby worrying for both Saudi Arabia and Iran. The two would approach this through military exercises strengthening security, which could go on to stabilize global energy markets as important to their economies. The exercises may mark a new page for more cooperative approaches to security in the Gulf, which will calm high tensions that may impact the volume of crude exported at a time when prices were rising.
Implications to Iran
This is the opportunity for military exercises with Saudi Arabia for Iran: as a tool of regional hegemony and to show the power. Iran has already employed proxy forces in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and militia forces of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to expand its power around its region. The military drill with Saudi is just one way that the Iranian regime can parade its strength while utilizing its regional context. This simultaneously signals a pragmatic approach to resolving longstanding tensions between two antagonists.
But maybe, the timing could be important for Iran, too. For the past few years, it has been a favorite punching bag in the West on nuclear activities and as an accomplice of terrorists. Exercises may finally turn out to be an instrument of its attempts to raise its international respectability and also showcase it as a willing player on the security table with the regional opponents. This may make the country let go of its disruptor image and be a more responsible player in the geopolitics of the Middle East.
Internally, it may serve as an instrument for the consolidation of political support in demonstrating that the regime can ensure its security and enhance stability in the region. Success in cooperating with Saudi Arabia will give legitimacy both nationally and internationally to the Iranian government.
Regional Conflicts Consequences
Military relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will most likely seriously impact the already existing regional conflicts, primarily in Yemen and Syria. This war has been said to be one of the worst humanitarian crises around the world by some experts. Indeed, this is one of the major flashpoints between both the Saudi and Iranian camps. The Saudi Arabian state led a military coup into the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and had devastating effects on all sides. These military exercises may facilitate demilitarization, as both the parties would look forward to a political solution from the crisis.
Although a quick peace deal seems not to be in the pipeline, military exercises show both Iran and Saudi Arabia are in the mood to negotiate it. Cooling of the two can even pave the way to a ceasefire, which may, at least, soothe Yemen’s civilians. This deal may also represent a paradigm shift, regionally, as countries try to build on areas of conflict rather than sectarian identities.
Military exercises may be opening the doors of dialogue in Syria, that country which has been divided by sides supported by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran has taken the side of Assad’s regime, while Saudi Arabia supports groups opposing the regime. It is still complicated to come up with a solution for the Syrian war, but increasing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran may present opportunities for joint cooperation toward stabilizing the country by discussing sectarian divisions and supporting political reconciliation.
Global Security Implications
This has very significant global security implications of Saudi-Iran military drills outside of the Middle East. The Gulf region constitutes a major reserve in terms of size, in terms of oil. Whichever party is favored then has an immense economic implication for the rest of the world since their tiffs tend to have a bearing on the Strait of Hormuz.
This can lead to the safer region, which will stabilize eventually the world’s oil supply through a safe region. Moreover, if it becomes clear that the middle ground tension will gradually relax in time between Iran and Saudi Arabia, then the possibility of conflict in the Gulf could potentially subside so as not to risk an outright disruption to shipping of oil. The region, therefore, counts to most of the countries as energy plays an indispensable role in its economy.
China and Russia, therefore, complicated this scenario even much since there is growing power within the Middle East. The two nations have even tried forming new allegiances with both Saudi and Iran as the alternative route to garner their support. Military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and embracing China and Russia can be regarded as a sign of the multi-polar world order that is emerging in the Middle East. The United States’ influence in this region would be derailed, and this would affect American foreign policy for many decades to come.
This could have security implications far, as improved cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in reducing tension would eventually make both states work on more common security issues at a regional level, like how to counter terrorism and improve security and consolidate war-ridden states. Both may soon bring about an improved safer Middle East after eliminating all these common dangers by terrorists like Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) whose strengths continue to grow.
Saudi-Iran 2024 war exercises are a turning point of the political game of the Middle East. For several decades, the two states have been in mutual competition. But lately, they have started to cooperate militarily. This may be a herald of an imminent shift of regional strategies and alliances. These exercises are an effort at a reassessment on the part of Saudi Arabia concerning its foreign policy and security agenda in reducing the country’s dependence on America and increasing its influence in this region. For Iran, military exercise is a way to flex muscle, gain international prestige and boost internal legitimacy.
Maybe one day, that future may finally appear in this region between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The region maybe more stabilized and there can be possible cooperation along with long term peace deals being made with those fighting regions. However the way to achieving durable peace will not be well known but global super powers participating in that conflict will largely determine that result.
Conclusion
The 2024 Saudi Arabia-Iran military exercises marked the dawn of a new chapter in Middle East geopolitics. Since it is traditionally a place with sharp ideological divisions and proxy conflicts, cooperation-oriented military exercises do hint that it’s open to sharing some of its collective pains and solutions through mutual and frank communication. The possibility of de-escalation in Yemen and Syria, combined with a strengthening regional stability, would open the way for more durable peace in the Gulf. On the global level, this cooperation strengthens energy security and signals a trend toward a multi-polar regional order. While there are significant challenges still ahead, these exercises underline the potential for transformation that diplomacy has to bring about stability and alter alliances.
