By: Afridi Ahmed, Research Analyst, GSDN
In 1994 after emerging from the Apartheid regime, South Africa has been considered the most advanced economy in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting its modernized industrial initiatives, well-maintained infrastructure and pace of GDP growth. As the leading voice of the Global South in the African continent, it holds more strategic importance in global geopolitics, having membership in pivotal regional and international alliances, such as BRICS+ (a cornerstone of its foreign policy), the G20, the African Union, SADC, SACU, and the Commonwealth of Nations.
As a founding member of the United Nations, it has spent it has contributed in UN-backed peacekeeping missions in conflict-ridden areas. As a member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), it has played a key role as a mediator and a peace facilitator in the regional crisis, aiming for Peace and Development, such as in Zimbabwe, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), etc. Reshaping the international order, Pretoria’s growing role in regional and global diplomatic trends, multilateral forums, and economic alliances has anchored it as a middle power.
This article examines the relevance of South Africa, which often goes underappreciated in global geopolitics: its strategic location, regional leadership and mediation, hunger for global governance reforms, role in maritime security and resource diplomacy, and its unprecedented ability to balance diplomacy amidst great power rivalries.
Strategic and Geopolitical Relevance
South Africa sits at a unique geographical location, the Cape of Good Hope, a breakthrough in European exploration connecting Europe and Asia and controls the maritime routes of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. This maritime corridor is among the main and busiest shipping routes essential for global trade.
The Ports of South Africa, Durban and Cape Town, and Saldanha Bay hold great importance for maritime activities related to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as they facilitate sea trade connectivity to global markets, support maritime security and increase naval cooperation, promote fuel-driven economic diplomacy and most importantly, support South Africa’s larger goal of sustainable industrial and green energy growth.
Durban Harbour, situated on the east coast of South Africa, handles more than 30 million tons of cargo annually and is visited by 4500 commercial vessels every year, making it the busiest shipping terminal. It links sea trade with the Far East, the Middle East, Australia, South America, North America and Europe. Additionally, it serves as a transhipment hub for East Africa and the Indian Ocean islands.
Despite performance issues, the Port of Cape Town handles 1035896 million tons of Dry Bulk cargo, 459118 million tons of Break Bulk cargo and 4933587 million tons of Liquid cargo. It is the second-largest cargo terminal exporting fruits, fish and frozen products to South America and the Far East.
Strategically, it also hosts the country’s warships and foreign navies to enhance diplomatic ties and naval cooperation. For example, on August 21, 2023, INS Sunayna entered the port to engage in a passage exercise with South African Navy Ship SAS King Sekhukhune I. This exercise not only warmed the diplomatic partnership between India and South Africa but also aimed at increasing interoperability, cooperation and sharing best practices between both navies.
Any shifts around these ports do not concern South Africa alone; they go beyond its borders, impacting regional and international maritime trade and security dynamics.
Resource Diplomacy and Clean Energy
South Africa has a variety of natural resources, holding the world’s largest reserves of Gold, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), Chrome Ore and Manganese Ore. In addition to this, it also has reserves of zirconium, vanadium and titanium. It has the world’s fifth-largest mining sector, making it a key player in the green energy and green tech race. The major players, the U.S. and China, are competing to gain access to these critical minerals. The U.S. has partnered with South Africa under the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), while China is using the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Apparently, South Africa contributes more than any developing nation to clean energy and carbon footprint reduction. The reason why South Africa seems a key supplier in the global energy transition is particularly green technology metals like Manganese, Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Lithium, Vanadium and other rare earth elements (REEs). South Africa has a large number of these metals and a skilled workforce to accommodate the international demands for critical minerals used for clean energy generation, particularly the making of electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce the dependence on fuel-driven technologies for transport and other purposes.
Statistically, 36% of manganese is produced by South Africa, which contributes to global production of critical minerals, adding US$ 2.5 billion to the country’s foreign exchange and employing thousands of people in 2022. Additionally, in the past few years, due to the drastic growth of the EV sector, the need for manganese has increased to manufacture lithium-ion batteries. In fact, Aqora, an energy company in South Africa, has unveiled its plan to set up the continent’s first lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing facility in 2023. This makes South Africa geopolitically significant and shows potential for renewable energy and tech innovation leadership in Africa, making it a regional hub for critical mineral and battery manufacturing and a wise destination for investment in green energy projects to meet the needs of a sustainable future and growth.
However, in the context of energy transition, it faces a dilemma of decarbonizing its heavy coal industry (a major energy source contributing around 77% to the country’s energy) without economic meltdown and unemployment. Under the Just Energy Transition Partnership announced during COP26, the United States has pledged an US$ 8.5 billion package to support the country’s energy transition from coal to a low-carbon economy.
Meanwhile, in August 2024, Pretoria concluded an energy sector agreement with Mozambique to use its natural gas for the transition from coal and diesel. In an interview with Mozambican journalists, South African Minister of Energy and Electricity Kgosientso Ramokgopa spoke of mutual gains that the agreement would bring to both countries. The agreement would be used to address the supply crisis.
Regionally, as a member of the South African Customs Union (SACU), on January 31, 2024, South Africa became the first country to initiate exporting goods from Durban Harbour to Ghana and Kenya under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework. This marks the beginning of duty-free intra-Africa trade, providing opportunities for business entities beyond the borders and integrating markets. This is a milestone in the history of Africa, giving employment to millions of people around the continent and affecting global economic growth. Similarly, it would encourage the other countries of the continent to initiate the duty-free trade, opening other avenues of cooperation, especially green energy projects and mindful use of critical minerals across the whole of Africa.
BRICS and Global South Unity
A small nation, South Africa joined Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) in 2010, becoming the only country representing the African continent and their needs and also broadening the voice of the Global South on the international stage. Since then, from this platform, South Africa has consistently pushed for democratization of international institutions, especially in the UN Security Council, the IMF and the World Bank, where developing nations of the Global South remain unheard and underrepresented. Through BRICS, South Africa not only embraces the economic benefits from the grouping but also steps into the U.S.-China rivalry. While the BRICS is considered a threat to Western institutions, challenging their hegemonic role in the global order and providing a financial alternative to the countries.
At the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates were invited to join the BRICS, marking the expansion of the grouping and a great leap for a multipolar world. On this expansion, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and cooperation with the broader developing countries.”
While adhering to Nelson Mandela’s legacy and the non-alignment movement, South Africa is playing a crucial diplomatic role by advocating for multipolarity and bridging Africa and developing nations of Asia while also doing a balancing act—getting benefits from China’s economic investments in the country while also maintaining relations with the West, especially with the U.S. and India.
Balancing Great Power Rivalries
Since its independence, South Africa’s foreign policy has been quite clear: to maintain non-alignment in the great power struggle while putting the country’s national interest at the forefront. In this new cold war, the U.S. tries to destroy the tech giants of China. South Africa holds on to its strategic autonomy, maintaining economic ties with China and the U.S., indicating the country’s vision of securing a large market by not joining any particular bloc or taking sides with a country.
Looking at the figures, with US$ 52.4 billion of trade in goods, Beijing is the largest trading partner of South Africa, while the US also has a sizable amount of trade in goods worth US$ 20.5 billion in 2024 with duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Recently, the Trump Administration cancelled US foreign aid to South Africa with immediate effect—a great upside-down in the diplomatic relations of both countries. The aid was cancelled in light of the alleged racial discrimination against the white Afrikaners. Although the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa denied such claims, in his weekly message to the country, he said South Africans “should not allow events beyond our shores to divide us or turn us against each other.” While not naming anybody, he continues and says, “In particular, we should challenge the completely false narrative that our country is a place in which people of a certain race or culture are being targeted for persecution.” This diplomatic storm should serve as a reminder for South Africa to design domestic policies that conform to its economic trade partners.
While South Africa’s strategic autonomy is questioned on matters like the Russia-Ukraine war and naval exercises with Russia and China, South Africa has refused to side with the West against Russia on any Ukraine-related resolution in the United Nations. In fact, Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries, including South Africa, remain neutral on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Instead of taking sides, South Africa decided to walk on the path of dialogue and de-escalation. In 2023, for the first time, President Cyril Ramaphosa led a peace mission beyond the continent with African leaders to Kyiv and Moscow to end the Russia-Ukraine war—unfortunately, it remained inconsequential. In the Same year, South Africa conducted joint naval drills with Russia and China off the east coast, to which the White House has expressed its concerns.
Challenges to Its Geopolitical Role
Beyond the African continent, South Africa has shown its geopolitical influence, demonstrating its significance in multilateral organizations. But it remains surrounded by domestic and diplomatic issues undermining its credibility on the global stage.
According to the World Bank, “South Africa is the most unequal country in the world,” holding rank 1 out of 164 countries in the World Bank’s global database of Gini coefficients. After so many years of independence, the majority of blacks are still the victims of unequal wealth distribution and access to basic amenities such as education, food and employment.
Economically, one of the major domestic issues and structural problems is overwhelming unemployment in the country, with 31.9% in the last quarter of 2024 and the highest among the youths between the age groups 15 and 24, at 59.6%. The government should work on reducing unemployment and inequality while adhering to the World Bank guidelines and recommendations to avoid civil unrest like the Zuma riots in 2021. The pre-election survey of 2024 also highlighted the major challenges the South Africans are facing, listing unemployment on top, followed by load-shedding and corruption.
In the 2024 elections, for the first time, the African National Congress (ANC)—once led by Nelson Mandela—lost its majority and clung to the coalition, reflecting the changing political landscape and public mood in the country. South Africa is in political turmoil due to problems like corruption, increasing unemployment and growing dissatisfaction among the voters. This unstable political climate in the country is problematic for the foreign commitments, making the state unfocused on external strategic issues.
Lastly, as of February 2025, Eskom, the state company of the most industrialized nation on the continent, South Africa, is in heavy debt of approximately R395.3 billion (US$ 22.1 billion). For decades, the frequent power cuts or load-shedding have disrupted the economic potential, leading to a decline in confidence among investors and weakening the position of the country in leading the regional energy corridors or clean energy transition. Recently, the government unveiled the plans to support Eskom, while it lacks the investment needed to recover loans.
Conclusion
South Africa may not be a great power, but its geopolitical importance is unmatched and undeniable, sitting on multiple strategic domains, including African leadership, mineral wealth, the voice of the Global South, maritime positioning and multilateral diplomacy. In this unjust and competitive world, it carries the voice of developing nations, seeking fair space and recognition and their participation in the international institutions.
Pretoria’s ability to negotiate with great powers and its contribution to the global governance reforms position it as a middle power. Whether through platforms like BRICS, the African Union and the UN, South Africa continues to shape the geopolitics of the 21st century.
