By: Kashif Anwar

Qatar who emerged as a key player in Syria’s fragile transition pledged to provide financial aid to fund salaries for Syrian public sector workers – a lifeline for a war-torn economy plagued by hyperinflation and unemployment. This bold commitment, coupled with Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani’s historic visit to Doha on January 5, 2025, signals Qatar’s intent to bolster the HTS-led government despite its Al-Qaeda roots. Framing its role as a catalyst for “Syrian national dialogue”, unite Syria and provide much anticipated financial aid, the US sanctions tied to the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist past on February 26, 2025, have stalled this aid, leaving promised salaries unpaid and Syria’s recovery in limbo. As Qatar navigates its U.S. ties and Gulf rivalries, this standoff underscores the tension between geopolitical strategy and Syria’s urgent humanitarian needs, with millions hanging in the balance.

Qatar’s Bold Commitment to Syria

On February 26, 2025, Reuters and Middle East Monitor reported that Qatar had promised to fund salaries for Syria’s public sector employees—a cornerstone of economic stability in a country where state institutions have been gutted by war. This commitment followed a series of diplomatic overtures, including Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani’s landmark visit to Doha on January 5, 2025. The visit, one of the first high-level engagements between Syria’s new rulers and a Gulf state, underscored Qatar’s intent to build a constructive relationship with the HTS-led government, despite the group’s controversial history as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda.

As Qatar’s Foreign Ministry has framed its involvement as part of a broader push for a “Syrian national dialogue,” a position highlighted on February 27, 2025. This initiative seeks to bring together Syria’s fractured factions – Islamists, secularists, and ethnic minorities – in order to forge a unified path forward. On December 8, 2024, a report quoted a Qatari official saying, the “Arab states will talk to all forces in Syria to prevent reignition of war,” reflecting Doha’s determination to avert a relapse into conflict. Qatar has also positioned itself as a vocal defender of Syrian sovereignty and on February 27, 2025, it “strongly condemned” Israeli airstrikes on the Syrian territory. Such a stance not only aligns Qatar with Damascus but also enhances its credibility as a regional advocate for Arab interests.

The financial pledge, meanwhile, addresses a pressing need. Syria’s economy is in ruins, with hyperinflation, widespread unemployment, and a collapsed currency. Public sector workers, once a backbone of the state, have gone months without pay, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that has left over 13 million Syrians displaced. Qatar’s offer given on February 27, 2025, aimed to inject immediate relief into this dire situation, signaling to both Syrians and the international community that the Gulf state is serious about supporting the country’s recovery.

U.S. Sanctions: A Geopolitical Wrench

Despite Qatar’s readiness to act, U.S. sanctions have thrown a wrench into these plans, as the US restrictions, tied to HTS’s prior terrorist designation, have put Qatar’s funding on indefinite hold. As per the sources, Doha is wary of transferring money without explicit U.S. approval, fearing secondary sanctions that could jeopardize its own economic interests or its strategic partnership with the United States, home to the massive Al Udeid Air Base. This hesitation has left Syria’s public sector dangling, with Investing.com noting that the promised salaries remain unpaid as of late February.

As the sanctions issue came to a head during HTS leaders’ visit to Doha, and in meetings with Qatari officials, Syria’s new rulers appealed directly to the U.S. to lift these measures, arguing this could choke off the resources needed to stabilize the country and govern effectively. Seeing situation in Syria, sanction is seen as barrier to peace in the country, a sentiment that resonates with Qatar’s own frustrations. As the development restricted Qatar’s move causing delay that has  sparked disappointment in Damascus, where the officials had banked on Qatar’s swift aid to shore up their legitimacy and address urgent public needs.

Regards to the US move and position, however, its rooted in a cautious calculus. HTS, despite its recent efforts to rebrand as a pragmatic governing force, carries the baggage of its extremist past. Lifting sanctions risks legitimizing a group that once espoused jihadist ideals, a move that could provoke backlash in Washington and strain ties with allies like Israel, which views HTS with deep suspicion following its consolidation of power in Syria.

Diplomatic Manoeuvring in a Crowded Arena

Qatar’s outreach to Syria is not an isolated act but part of a broader Gulf strategy to shape the country’s post-conflict landscape. Considering the on-going geo-political developments in the Middle East, the Gulf states see Syria as a geopolitical prize, a chance to counter the influence of Iran and Turkey, both of which have entrenched themselves in the country during the war. Qatar, with its history of supporting Sunni Islamist movements and mediating conflicts from Afghanistan to Lebanon, is well-positioned to lead this effort. Qatar’s condemnation of Israeli attacks and hosting of Al-Shaibani signal a dual approach aligning Arab nationalist sentiments while engaging directly with Syria’s Islamist rulers.

Further, Syria’s state-run SANA news agency reported on February 26, 2025, that the interim government warmly received Qatar’s diplomatic gestures, hinting at a potential alliance that could bolster HTS’s regional standing. As the sanction delay the progress in Syria it threaten or undermine the progress or momentum achieved under Syrian new regime. A lack of tangible aid has fueled scepticism among Syrians about whether foreign promises will translate into action or not due to scepticism born of years of abandonment by the international community.

Qatar’s role also pits it against other Gulf players as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who wary of HTS’s Islamist leanings, have taken a more reserved approach to Syria’s new government, leaving Qatar to test the waters. This dynamic suggests a delicate balancing act for Doha, which must navigate intra-Gulf rivalries while maintaining its partnership with the U.S.

Analysis: A High-Stakes Standoff

The clash between Qatar’s ambitions and U.S. sanctions encapsulates the broader challenges of Syria’s reconstruction. For Qatar, supporting Syria aligns with its foreign policy of championing Sunni-led causes while asserting influence in a region contested by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. Its financial pledge and diplomatic outreach reflect a calculated bid to shape Syria’s future, potentially positioning Doha as a kingmaker in the Levant. Yet, its dependence on U.S. military and economic goodwill – symbolized by Al Udeid – constrains its room to manoeuvre, forcing it into a cautious dance with Washington.

For the US, the sanctions dilemma is equally fraught. HTS’s evolution from a militant faction to a governing entity presents an opportunity to engage with Syria’s new reality, as hinted by its appeal for sanctions relief. Pragmatic US approach could leverage this opening to influence HTS’s policies, perhaps steering it away from radicalism and toward governance that aligns with Western interests. However, the political risks are steep: easing sanctions could be seen as rewarding a former terrorist group, a narrative that opponents in Congress or Israeli leaders could seize upon.

The human cost of this standoff is stark. Syria’s 22 million people, battered by war, sanctions, and economic collapse, face a precarious future. As the delay in Qatari funding, if prolonged, could erode trust in the interim government, fuel social unrest, and could create openings for spoilers – be they remnants of the Assad regime, ISIS, or rival militias. Qatar’s stated goal of preventing a “reignition of war,” hangs in the balance.

The Road Ahead: Stability or Stagnation?

Today ,as the impasse persists. Qatar continues to press the U.S. for clarity, while advocating for a Syrian-led solution that includes all stakeholders. HTS, for its part, is eager to prove it can govern, but its hands are tied without external support. The outcome of this diplomatic tug-of-war will reverberate beyond Syria’s borders, shaping the Gulf’s role in the Middle East and testing the U.S.’s ability to adapt its policies to a shifting landscape. For Syrians, the stakes could not be higher. With schools shuttered, hospitals crumbling, and millions still displaced, the need for aid is urgent. Qatar’s stalled support, if unresolved, risks becoming yet another unfulfilled promise in a land long accustomed to hardship. As the world watches, the question looms: will the geopolitics once again trump humanitarian imperatives or can a compromise emerge to give Syria’s new era a fighting chance?