By: Tanuja Baura, Research Analyst, GSDN

On November 5, 2024, the United States conducted presidential elections. The Republican ticket of Donald Trump, the 45th president (2017–2021), and JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, defeated the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris, the current vice president, and Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. Trump and Vance are to be inaugurated as the 47th president and 50th vice president on January 20, 2025, following the Electoral College’s formal vote. President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election as the Democratic nominee, facing little opposition and easily defeating Representative Dean Phillips. However, after a widely panned debate performance in June 2024 raised concerns about his age and health, pressure mounted within the Democratic Party for Biden to step aside. Although he had initially resisted, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, making him the first eligible sitting president to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Biden endorsed Vice President Harris, who was officially nominated by the party on August 5, 2024, and selected Walz as her running mate.

Trump, who lost to Biden in 2020, wanted another term and got the Republican nomination with Vance after a strong showing in the primaries at the 2024 Republican National Convention. His campaign was full of false and misleading claims, including stolen election claims about the 2020 election, anti-immigrant rhetoric, conspiracy theories, and dehumanizing language toward opponents. Historians and former Trump officials described his political movement as authoritarian, with some drawing comparisons to fascism. Voters priorities during the election included the economy, healthcare, democracy, foreign policy (especially in terms of U.S. support for Israel and Ukraine), immigration, abortion, climate change, education, and LGBTQ rights.  With 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 226 votes, Trump won handily. He carried all the swing states and flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump’s victory was credited to stronger support from working-class voters, especially young men, those without college degrees, and Hispanic voters. He is the second president who has won an election after a previous win, following the 2016 win over Hillary Clinton and the loss in 2020 against Biden.

Background

Article Two of the U.S. Constitution explains that in order to serve as president, an individual has to be a natural-born citizen of the United States, have at least attained the age of 35 years, and have been resident of the United States for at least 14 years. The nomination of candidates from a major political party is by means of a primary election where delegates to the party’s national convention are elected. The nominee then selects a running mate for vice president, and this choice is typically ratified by the convention’s delegates. If no candidate receives a majority of the delegates’ votes or if the presumptive nominee withdraws prior to the convention, a brokered convention may ensue, in which delegates may shift their support to a different candidate. The general election in November is an indirect process in which voters choose members of the Electoral College, who then directly elect the president and vice president.

Election officials across the country are facing increased workloads and heightened scrutiny. Many states have sought additional funding to hire staff, enhance security, and expand training programs. Offices are also having to deal with an influx in public records requests, something partly driven by distrust fuelled by Trump’s talk of election fraud following the 2020 loss. This comes along with increased retirement rates for election workers. His first impeachment by the Democratic-led House of Representatives in December 2019 charged him with “abuse of power and obstruction of Congress” for pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, by withholding military aid. Trump’s second impeachment on January 13, 2021, accused him of “incitement of insurrection” concerning the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Impeached twice by the House, Trump was acquitted by the Senate both times and is eligible to run again for president in 2024.

Efforts by state courts and officials to prevent Trump from appearing on the ballot under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment because of his involvement in the Capitol assault include a Colorado Supreme Court decision, an Illinois Circuit Court decision, and a ruling by the Maine Secretary of State. The efforts were not successful. On March 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Trump v. Anderson that states lack the authority to disqualify candidates for federal elections under Section 3. The Court clarified that only Congress can disqualify candidates or pass legislation empowering courts to do so.

Donald Trump’s false claims of interference

Donald Trump kept insisting baselessly that the 2020 presidential election was tainted with voter fraud and refused to accept it as valid even as election day of 2024 approached. In July 2024, The New York Times reported on an aggressive legal campaign by the Republican Party and its allies aimed at reshaping the voting system to their partisan advantage. This included efforts to limit access to the polls before Election Day and preparing for potentially spurious legal challenges to the certification process if Trump lost. Trump continued to espouse his now-familiar “stolen election” narrative of 2020, sometimes referred to as the “big lie”. He also repeatedly charged President Biden with politicizing the Justice Department against him through ongoing criminal trials

 His promise to weaponize the Justice Department against political adversaries, to deploy the military in cities that have high crime rates or are active with drug cartels by invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, and his public endorsement of the January 6 attack on the Capitol increased apprehensions about the future of American democracy. In addition to these statements, the Republican Party took steps to monitor the election process closely. The Trump campaign vowed to deploy over 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling stations in battleground states. They also rolled out an “election integrity hotline” for poll watchers and voters to report perceived voting irregularities. Critics contended that this kind of action would be enough to create an intimidating atmosphere not only for the voters but also for election officials.

Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump

In 2023 and 2024, Donald Trump was confronted with serious legal challenges, including being held liable in civil cases for sexual abuse, defamation, and financial fraud, as well as being criminally convicted of falsifying business records. These legal issues were expected to feature in the 2024 presidential campaign. By December 2023, Trump had been criminally indicted in four separate cases, amounting to 86 felony counts, along with other pending lawsuits. On May 30, 2024, he was found guilty on all 34 counts of felony in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump. It was about the falsification of business records to hide hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in an attempt to quiet claims of a sexual tryst in the 2016 presidential election

Trump and many Republicans reacted to his trials by coming up with various false claims that they were “rigged” or politically motivated acts of “election interference” orchestrated by President Biden and the Democratic Party without evidence to back up these claims. Apart from the New York case, Trump faces 52 felony counts spread out across three major cases: Four counts in United States of America v. Donald J. On May 9, 2023, a jury ruled guilty on E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump for sexual abuse and defamation, awarding him damages of $88.3 million. In New York v. Trump in September 2023, he was found guilty for financial fraud and ordered to pay $457 million judgment, for which he appealed.

Public opinion is divided on whether Trump deserves the legal troubles that have befell him. An April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll found 74% of registered voters say the federal election interference allegations are serious, with other high percentages for the alleged Georgia (72%) and handling of classified documents (69%) cases. After conviction in the hush money case, 54% of registered voters said that the jury made the right decision but 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents think Trump ought to get out of the presidential race. But 56% of Republicans were unmoved by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans, along with 18% of independents, said they were more likely to vote for Trump. Trump tried delaying his trials, hoping to drag proceedings past the November 2024 election.

Analysis of results

As of 2024, Trump was the eighth presidential nominee in U.S. history to gain non-faithless electoral votes in at least three elections, joining such figures as Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Grover Cleveland, and Richard Nixon. Trump and Nixon are the only candidates to win a large number of electoral votes in three elections since the Twenty-second Amendment established term limits for presidents. Trump is also the only one of these eight to win the popular vote exactly once (Clay and Bryan never won it. Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, nearly 90% of U.S. counties swung in Trump’s favour both rural and urban areas. All 50 states and Washington, D.C. This election marked the first time since 1976 that all states and D.C. swung in the same direction, shifting towards Trump. Harris only won more votes than Biden in Maine, Utah, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin. She lost votes in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan. Trump picked up 2.5 million more votes, mostly from urban centre but also in rural and exurban counties across the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, and Mountain regions. Harris received 226 Electoral College votes, the worst performance for a Democratic ticket since Michael Dukakis in 1988. Trump won 312 electoral votes, carrying 31 states. This election marked the second in the 21st century where a candidate won fewer than 20 states, the other being John Kerry’s 19-state win in 2004.

 The global risk implications of the US election and Trump’s presidency

 A wild card for business

At the start of 2024, Control Risks forecasted that the U.S. election would be the most important geopolitical event in the year, with far-reaching implications. The U.S. holds a significant position globally, so its election outcome impacts international trade, financial markets, and geopolitics. The result can cause changes in trade policies and economic strategies that affect supply chains and market stability. Changes in U.S. foreign policy may also change international security risks and diplomatic relations. In addition, the elections are considered to be representative of the larger trends in governance and populism, which may determine the political stability of other nations. the first term of Donald Trump was characterized by significant changes in policies and a unique leadership style that transformed both domestic and international perspectives. His government adhered to “America First” policy, prioritizing the interests of the United States in matters such as trade, immigration, and foreign affairs. This approach often resulted in confrontational rhetoric, particularly towards established allies and international institutions. In terms of global diplomacy, Trump’s approach was unconventional. He pursued personal connections with authoritarian leaders, such as North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Decisions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and Iran nuclear deal highlighted willingness to cast aside multilateral agreements, which generated uncertainty over international cooperation.

This time: Stock market volatility and economic instability

Whereas many expect Trump to now resort to a more measured campaign strategy in his second White House campaign, he may indeed come harder with reforms as this most likely proves to be his final presidential term due to America’s presidential term limits.  Whereas economic changes were experienced with the beginning of his tenure, there is a big likelihood that his return shall present similar economic instability to what his first term represented with all his unorthodox economical strategies. Trump’s unpredictable style, through which he often makes social media announcements of policy changes, is likely to trigger immediate market reactions, further increasing investor anxiety and possibly causing market volatility. His “America First” trade policies, including tariffs and trade barriers, especially against China, may revive protectionist measures, which will disrupt global supply chains and change market dynamics.

A second Trump presidency may also increase geopolitical tensions. His confrontational foreign policy, especially towards China and Russia, could reshape global alliances and cause friction between nations. Trump’s preference for unilateral actions over multilateral agreements raised concerns about international diplomacy during his first term, and countries may need to adjust their foreign policies in anticipation of his return. For instance, in an October 15 interview, Trump suggested that South Korea, which currently pays for the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops as a deterrent against North Korea, should pay the U.S. $10 billion a year, describing the country as a “money machine.” This transactional approach to foreign policy could have huge global security implications as both allies and adversaries measure how to respond.

Trump’s policies have already had a significant impact on global supply chains, and his return may pose new challenges to businesses relying on international networks. The threat of tariffs and trade restrictions may force companies to adjust their sourcing strategies, which will increase costs and cause operational disruptions. A report by the Economist Intelligence Unit expects Trump to actually implement his threat to impose a 10% flat tariff on U.S. imports, with additional measures on politically sensitive imports, such as steel. Businesses should consider diversifying their supply chains to reduce risks and engage with local suppliers or explore alternative markets to buffer against potential trade barriers. Legislative updates would also be important in helping companies that have to be concerned with the Trump policy on supply chain disruptions.

Geopolitical tensions and global relations

A second Trump presidency could heighten existing geopolitical tensions, especially with China and Russia, and reshape alliances and create friction among nations. During his first term, Trump favoured unilateral actions over multilateral agreements, which raises concerns about the future of international diplomacy. Countries that have relied on U.S. support in regional conflicts may have to adapt to a more unpredictable foreign policy landscape under Trump. For instance, during an October 15 appearance at the Economic Club of Chicago and Bloomberg News, Trump talked about South Korea, where there are 28,500 U.S. troops deployed to deter North Korea. This transactional approach to foreign policy would have far-reaching implications for global security as allies and adversaries weigh how to respond to a more isolationist U.S. policy.