By: Pragathi Kowndinya, Research Analyst, GSDN

‘Pax Americana’, an idea crafted by the U.S., envisioned the post-war world. Its core mandate envisages the motto of establishing ‘peace and tranquility’ in the West and beyond, as the world nations had witnessed the brutality and ruckus due to the outbreak of World War II in 1945.

In the post-war era, the U.S., a victorious allied power, began to aid nations that were entangled in political and economic crises. Initiatives such as Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan were not just rehabilitation and rebuilding plans for revamping Europe and Asia but they became U.S.’s strategic and soft power tools.

Post 1945, the era of decolonization across Asia and Africa, parellely witnessed the rise of U.S. across Atlantic and Asia-Pacific. When nations were jeopardised in political and economic turmoil, the U.S. manipulated the geopolitical game to its advantage. From unfurling the principles of liberalism, capitalism to dollarization and democracy the world watched U.S. scripting the geopolitical realities of those days.

In this voyage to exercise relative strategic relevance and superpower beyond continents and oceans, a major pawn for the U.S. is the ‘Middle East’ or what we call as ‘West Asia’. Yes, U.S.’s geopolitical footprint in the region is a 360-degree approach from trade, infrastructure development to military presence and intervention in domestic and regional politics.

Seven decades have passed since World War II. Does the journey of the U.S. in the Middle East, given innumerable ups and downs, stand for the goal of ‘peace and tranquility’ (Pax Americana) even today? Is the U.S. losing control over the region in the era of multipolarity? How is U.S. and Middle East’s domestic politics affecting the larger goal of peace and regional growth? Are U.S. initiatives scaling only conflicts and fuelling its strategic and hegemonic interests? Let us decode.

U.S.-Middle East ties: tracing through history

The earliest traces of the relations between the U.S. and the Middle East dates back to the 18th century. Soon after independence, the U.S. began to sign treaties with the non-western nations to ensure safe passage of its vessels through the Mediterranean Sea, for the sake of trade prosperity. Later, in the 19th century American missionaries landed in West Asia and established educational institutions in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Palestine etc. 

Until the outbreak of world wars, the U.S. had no geopolitical interests in the region, as it was an era of British monopoly. Even the oil mines were monopolized by the British. Thereby, the Middle East nations too had a cordial view towards the U.S. as they had no imperialistic ambitions.

Infact, in the aftermath of World War 1, when U.S. President Woodrow Wilson gave the ’14 points formula’ for global peace. Middle East nations looked up to the U.S. for defending & protecting them against European imperialism and world war atrocities.

However, the situation took a rampant shift in the inter-war period and in the post-war era. When the British and French powers began to weaken, U.S.’s strategic interests strengthened in the region. Further, the U.S.’s urge to tackle the Soviet Union and its growing influence in Syria, Iran, Turkey, deemed ‘Middle East’ as a trump card in the political and ideological conflict of the cold war era.

Why ‘Middle East’ Matters

The Middle East can be perceived as the heart of the geopolitical map. Not just the U.S., but every nation aspires to have a strategic fist in the region. For example, India considers the Middle East as an ‘Extended Neighbourhood’. What makes Middle East so vital in geopolitics are the following factors –

1.  Geographical location

The region is at the epicentre of three continents-Asia, Europe and Africa making it a pivotal zone for trade, transit and infrastructure development. Middle East nations such as Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel border the Mediterranean Sea that is crucial for world trade, which sustains 20% of world trade especially oil, petroleum and other strategic resources, through Suez Canal and other routes.

• Resource Richness

The Middle East houses 2/3^rd of the world’s petroleum reserves in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE etc. The Gulf Cooperation Council together fulfills 60% of the world’s oil needs. Thus, restoring influence across the Middle East is a synonym to having strategic control over world’s crucial resources and a route to climb the ladder of global hegemony, because this is the era, where ‘oil’ is the engine of global growth.

U.S.’s strategic interests in the region grew by leaps and bounds especially to thwart the influence of the U.S.S.R. during the cold war. In its quest to create a unipolar hegemony, as a part of Truman Doctrine, U.S. deployed military bases to Saudi Arabia, mainly to deter the Soviets. Infact, the U.S. also had fruitful relations with Iran until the 1979 Iranian revolution.

But, the maiden large scale military operation of the U.S. in the Middle East was in 1953. The U.S. and British jointly overthrew the democratically elected regime in Tehran, as the later tried to nationalise the oil industry. Thereby, reimposition of the autocratic rule in Iran began the era of U.S. influx into domestic politics of the region in order to nourish its strategic and economic interests and as a master stroke against U.S.S.R.

But, in the path of ensuring benefit for U.S. oil companies and the path of hegemonic aspirations of the U.S. also began to fuel the geopolitical turbines of the Middle East. It led to the eruption of internal conflicts and instability in the region.

U.S.-Israel Axis: Unfolding of a new chapter 

With the creation of a Jewish state in the heart of the Arab Peninsula in 1948, embarked on a new saga for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. It truly turned around the pages of diplomacy and geopolitics that acts as the root cause for the majority of the turbulence that the Middle East faces today.

In 1922 and 1944 U.S. Congress acknowledged the Balfour Declaration that reflected the spirit of creation of a Jewish state in Palestine. But initial days marked minimal relations as U.S. was not happy with Israel launching Suez War. President John Kennedy also expressed dissatisfaction regarding Israel’s secret nuclear programme.

However, the Six Day war of 1967 made the entire scenario to flip, for the mutual advantage of both Israel and U.S. when Israel defeated Jordan, Syria, Egypt single handedly in a short span of 6 days and captured few swaths of  territories, U.S. began to consider Israel as its perfect partner in a strategically vital zone to defeat Soviet interests.

Thus, began the chapter of U.S.-Israel alliance that is unhindered and continuing for ages. This relation is a catalyst for current chaos in the Middle East.

Israel: An ally amidst the Arab Axis

Today the U.S. has more than 19 military bases in the Middle East, Qatar being the largest with 10,000 troops and Saudi Arabia with 2,700 troops. Also, the U.S. has approximately US$ 80.53 billion direct investment in the region across manufacturing, mining and service sectors. Yet, the panorama of U.S. geopolitics in the Middle East is predominantly derived by the Israeli factor, an ‘all weather ally’ for the U.S. especially after the break away of the U.S. from Iran due to the 1979 revolution.

For example, in the latest Israel-Hamas conflict since October 7, 2023 that has killed more than 40,000 people, injured lakhs and displaced the complete 2.3 million population of the narrow strip of Gaza, U.S. has unequivocally supported Israel.

Ofcourse, the U.S. has voiced humanitarian needs, dialogue, diplomacy and a ceasefire. But, the aid to Israel is flowing relentlessly. The ever spiraling war, with no sign of de-escalation and dialogue, is stretching its arms even to Lebanon, Iran etc. triggering a caution towards the outbreak of a larger regional war, and the U.S. role cannot be understated.

According to data, the U.S. has spent US$ 17.9 billion on military assistance to Israel since October 7. Even, the U.S. never criticizes Israel for it being an undeclared nuclear power. Israel has received a bilateral aid of US$ 158 billion from the U.S. since the end of the Second World War. 16% of Israel’s military budget is funded by the U.S. Another hallmark of the U.S.-Israel alliance is since past 5 decades, the U.S. has vetoed nearly 53 UNSC resolutions that were critical of Israel.

This unwavering shield of the U.S. to Israel against global accusations, just in the name of defending Israel’s sovereignty and integrity, irks other Arab nations, in spite of there being testimonial humanitarian atrocities in Gaza.

Arab states consider that the detrimental support of the U.S. to Israel, is deferring the solution for the Palestinian question. Though, U.S. initiated Middle East Peace Plans through the Oslo Accords to arrive at a solution for Palestinian question and the Abraham Accords as a normalization effort between Gulf states of UAE, Bahrain and Israel, they are still purely theoretical and there is a long way to go, to it to materialize, given the current volatile situation.

On the other hand, U.S. defense and financial assistance keeps flowing into Israel. Backing Israeli actions in global platforms, seeking to backlash Iran are a testimony for Arabs to feel that the U.S. is portraying double standards in the region. The stand of the U.S. with respect to the Iraq invasion in 2003 and dismantling the Saddam Hussein regime, nuclear tests of Israel, questions of human rights and democracy in Palestine is leading to rift between the U.S. and the Arab world for a decade now.

China facet to U.S. Policy in Middle East

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) making inroads into the Middle East is definitely leaving the U.S. at the crossroads in the region. Though 50% of U.S. overseas military assistance goes to the Middle East the situation isn’t the same as it was a decade ago.

U.S. interests for hegemony and power are at stake in this age of multipolarity and rising Chinese dominance. The Middle East is crucial for China as much as it is for the U.S. to seek hegemony in global trade and development.

China has cordial relations with Saudi Arabia, a partner of U.S. and also with Iran, the conflict of U.S. Also, China has a great economic relationship with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain etc. to cater to the oil needs of China’s mammoth manufacturing sector. For example, China completed the construction of one of the world’s largest offshore oil and gas platforms in Saudi Arabia.

Through its flagship Belt and Road Initiative, China has ventured into telecommunication, housing, mining, road, railway and other transit construction across the Middle East. For example, Vision 2030 with respect to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt etc. The plan is to revamp the maritime silk route connecting the South China Sea to the Mediterranean, giving it a strategic edge in the region.

With Iran being inducted into SCO and Sino-Iran relations celebrating 50 years of cooperation, China is definitely a step ahead of the U.S. by partnering with all Middle East states beyond ideologies.

China acting as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thereby facilitating for peace and diplomacy is a masterstroke of China against the U.S.’s libertarian goals in the Middle East and acts as a strategic deterrence for U.S. operations in the region.

As the Minister of External Affairs of India, Dr. S. Jaishankar says, “For the last 20 years, the U.S.  has been fighting but not winning in the Middle East, and China has been winning but not fighting in the region”. Thus, despite numerous aids and peace plans, Middle East dreams for the U.S. are in doldrums, in an era where the region is more important to Washington D.C. than ever before, to tackle Beijing’s interests. Of course, the U.S. ‘s tilt towards Israel sometimes makes the Arab world tilt towards China more, inevitably!

U.S. domestic politics: Catalyst for Chasm

The main chasm for smooth foreign policy of U.S. in the Middle East is Israel factor. The reason for U.S.’s unhindered support to Israel is beyond mere strategic goals. Irrespective of the party and leader in power in the U.S., the aid for Israel is spiking tremendously over the decades.  One of the narratives that explain the U.S. ‘s position towards Israel is that the U.S.’s electoral politics is funded by the Jewish capitalists.

American Jews and elite Christians who are pro-Israel are politically active citizens. Be it Democrats or Republicans, they are invariably influenced by pro-Israel lobby, which in turn influences U.S. policy towards Israel and decisions taken on Israeli soil definitely spills across Middle East. For example, pro-Israel groups contributed over US$ 30 billion to the U.S. elections. Thus, for anyone contesting U.S. presidential elections Israel is a double-edged sword. If you consider it, you will lose hold in West Asia, if you ignore it you will probably lose your president cap and homeland victory, where the latter is a greater loss than the former!

Thus, U.S. domestic politics defining its Middle East policy is empirical evidence for how capitalism navigates political decisions in the era of realist politics of 21st century.

The Era of Realism: But not at humanitarian Cost

Mounting geopolitical goals, humanitarian concerns are backsliding in the Middle East. The terrors emanating from Gaza is a testimony for how humanity is at stake to fulfill hegemonic and expansionist ambitions. Neither Israel nor Hamas, Hezbollah and other non-state actors or of course U.S. can distance themselves from being accountable for the atrocities caused that are costing innocent lives.

Unwinding political scenarios doesn’t guarantee unipolarity in the region, as this is the era of multipolarity where national interests are a key priority for every stakeholder. That doesn’t mean any nation has a right to kill innocent lives, harm the environment and cause pollution due to massive use of chemical induced weapons.

Of course, the U.S. hasn’t completely lost prominence in the region. Even, the Middle East needs the U.S. for its economic, military and strategic interests and to ensure balance of power across trans-Atlantic to Indo-Pacific.

With U.S. Presidential elections over, the world has to wait and watch how the policy towards the Middle East unfolds under the President-elect Donald Trump. The Biden administration is unable to de-escalate and initiate a ceasefire between the warring parties in the current Israeli-Hamas conflict and strike a balance of power in larger West Asia. Infact, Israel and Iran’s direct confrontation are hinting the chances of a regional war, there is no aspiration for peace.

Thus, the current challenge for the U.S. is to navigate a responsible foreign policy that considers all stakeholders into account, involves in a consistent and constructive dialogue and negotiations, mediating peace treaties with not just Iran, Israel and other state actors, but also with non-state actors of the region.

Rather than mere checkmating China, Iran or Russia, the U.S. should ensure a sustainable partnership and development along with restoring its strategic interests. It should accept only limited defensive practices and not the acts that trigger proxy wars.  The U.S. should not act as a catalyst for chaos and conflict, but should be a kingpin for cooperation and collaboration in the Middle East or anywhere else. Because, in this era of global warming and climate change, wars should not add to global burden. Only these actions can save the U.S. from a global backlash and give it the fame of a true global frontrunner or leader, a position that it always aspires for!