The geopolitical tension in Europe is at an all-time high, and its not because of the Russia factor alone. It is also about the cracks forming in transatlantic alliances. French President Emmanuel Macron has issued a warning – Europe needs to be prepared to stand on its own in the face of a Russian threat, especially if their longtime ally, the United States, decides to step back.

Macron’s statement comes ahead of an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where all 27 European leaders will gather to discuss the unfolding situation. Adding to the weight of the meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also expected to attend.

What’s fueling this urgency?

The Trump administration’s recent move to suspend intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, a decision that could have serious consequences on the battlefield. The US has been a crucial source of intelligence for Ukraine, helping Kyiv target Russian positions effectively. Cutting off this support could shift the dynamics of the war, and Europe is feeling the pressure to step up.

But France isn’t waiting around. French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu made it clear that France is stepping in, offering intelligence to Ukraine independently. “Our intelligence is sovereign… with our own capacities,” he said, indicating that Paris will now take a more active role in assisting Kyiv.

Kryvyi Rih Attack
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shared grim news about a Russian strike on his hometown, Kryvyi Rih, which left four people dead.

According to his statement, the attack could have been even deadlier. Just before the strike, volunteers from a humanitarian organization including citizens from Ukraine, the US, and the UK had checked into a nearby hotel but managed to evacuate in time. “More than 30 people were injured, all of whom have received medical assistance,” Zelenskyy confirmed. Several civilian buildings near the hotel were also damaged.

Macron vs. Moscow
Meanwhile, the Kremlin isn’t holding back its criticism of French President Emmanuel Macron. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova lashed out, calling Macron a “storyteller” who is detached from reality.

Her comments come after Macron labeled Russia a direct threat to Europe and suggested he would consider putting European allies under France’s nuclear protection. Clearly, that didn’t sit well with Moscow, and Russian state media wasted no time in ridiculing him.

In another key development, Vladimir Putin has appointed Alexander Darchiyev as Russia’s new ambassador to the US. Washington has reportedly given the green light for the appointment after discussions in Türkiye.

Darchiyev is no stranger to the diplomatic scene. He’s spent years in Russia’s Washington, DC, embassy and even served as ambassador to Canada from 2014 to 2021. Now, he’ll be stepping into one of the most challenging roles in global diplomacy—managing US-Russia relations at a time when the two countries can barely find common ground.

Fractured Europe Struggles for a United Front
The past few weeks have been a whirlwind of diplomatic activity -high-level calls, NATO defense minister meetings in Brussels, and urgent EU security discussions. The underlying concern is Europe’s security is on shaky ground, and the old reliance on Washington is looking less certain by the day.

Friedrich Merz, the man likely to become Germany’s next leader, didn’t mince words when he said Washington now seems to “not care about the fate of Europe.” That’s a chilling realization for many European leaders, who are scrambling to strengthen their defenses and reassure Kyiv.

The EU’s response has been a mix of bold statements and urgent pledges. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer called for “action, not words,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe must turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine”—meaning rapid arms deliveries to make it an impenetrable force.

But will these efforts be enough?

Europe has two key objectives right now –

One, convince Trump to stay in the game. European leaders hope that by taking on more responsibility, they can persuade Trump to resume military aid to Ukraine and continue backing Europe’s security.

Second, prepare for the worst. If Trump pulls out, Europe must be ready to defend itself, independent of US support. That means significantly ramping up military spending and coordination, something easier said than done.

Russia is Watching Too
Moscow doesn’t need to make any sudden moves, it just needs to sit back and watch Europe struggle. And right now, the cracks are showing.

The Kremlin has already pointed out the disunity among Western allies, gloating about the divisions it sees. And if Europe’s big emergency meetings don’t translate into real military commitments, those divisions will only widen.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s unpredictable stance on NATO and Ukraine – one minute, he’s praising Vladimir Putin. The next, he’s throwing jabs at NATO allies. His comments calling Ukraine’s president a dictator didn’t go unnoticed either—least of all by Moscow.

Russia knows that, despite all of Europe’s talk about standing strong, it still heavily relies on the US for security. That’s why European leaders have been scrambling to keep Washington engaged, with Emmanuel Macron and Rishi Sunak separately making their way to Trump’s orbit, trying to ensure that even if he wins, the US won’t completely abandon Ukraine.

But here’s the real issue – Europe isn’t militarily self-sufficient.

The US has been plugging the gaps left by years of European defense cuts and underinvestment. European countries reduced their troop numbers after the Cold War, with most dropping conscription altogether. Today, the US has around 100,000 troops stationed in Europe and holds nuclear weapons under NATO’s sharing agreement. One of the biggest hosts? Germany, ironically, a country without its own nuclear arsenal, now left wondering how exposed it would be if Trump decided to scale back US commitments.

The “Coalition of the Willing”—Or the Struggling?
The UK and France are trying to assemble what they call a “coalition of the willing”—a group of European nations that would send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine once a ceasefire is in place. Sounds great in theory, but in practice? It’s complicated.

Poland has already said no thanks. Its focus is on defending its own borders rather than sending troops into Ukraine. And who can blame them? Eastern European countries are nervous that if the US starts withdrawing troops, they’ll be left vulnerable.

Even if a European force does take shape, it will still need US military backing. Europe lacks critical battlefield infrastructure, from air-to-air refueling to the munitions needed to strike Russian defenses. A European force without US support isn’t just risky, it’s practically unworkable.

And that brings us to intelligence.

Ukraine has been heavily dependent on US intelligence-sharing to target Russian forces. But now, reports suggest Washington has already cut off key intel streams to Kyiv. If that’s true, it’s a huge problem. Without real-time intelligence, Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian advances is seriously compromised. And Europe? It doesn’t have a replacement for what the US provides.

Also, if Europe really wants to take the lead, it needs to put its money where its mouth is.

Germany has been the biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the US, and it argues that if other European powers stepped up in the same way, they could replace American support. But that’s a big if.

Some northern European nations have already voiced frustration with France, saying that while it talks tough on Ukraine, its actual contributions have been underwhelming. The reality is, military aid requires serious spending, and not all European countries are willing—or able—to foot the bill.

Can Europe move fast enough?

Ursula von der Leyen is making it clear – Europe is gearing up for an “era of re-armament.”

On Tuesday, the EU Commission chief laid out ambitious plans to mobilize 800 billion euros for defense spending. The idea is to get creative with the EU’s budget, provide 150 billion euros in loans for things like missile defense and military mobility, and even suspend fiscal rules so individual countries can ramp up their spending.

Sounds bold, but will it work?

EU leaders will be debating these proposals on Thursday, along with another big question—whether they should use frozen Russian assets in Europe to fund Ukraine’s defense. That’s sure to spark heated arguments.

The Big Divide
Some countries, especially those near Russia, are already all-in. Estonia and Lithuania, tiny but vulnerable, are pushing defense spending beyond 3% of GDP, aiming for 5% soon. For them, the threat isn’t theoretical—it’s right at their doorstep.

But then there’s Italy and Spain, far from Russia, still failing to meet NATO’s 2% spending target. And in Germany, France, and the UK? Many voters, according to recent polls, actually want to reduce defense spending—they’d rather see that money go elsewhere.

Then there’s Hungary. Close to both Russia and Trump’s circle, it’s a roadblock in nearly every EU debate on Ukraine. And Slovakia? Brussels is increasingly worried it might be heading in the same direction.

Mark Rutte, NATO’s new Secretary General, isn’t sugarcoating things. He’s warning Europe to wake up—fast.