Russia has accused Ukraine of violating a proposed ceasefire on energy sites by striking a Russian oil depot, the country’s foreign ministry said on Thursday. The ceasefire, initially pushed by the U.S., was meant to last 30 days, but according to Russia, Ukraine didn’t stick to the deal.

Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, stated that it was now up to the U.S. to hold Ukraine accountable. This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin had reportedly agreed to the ceasefire in a call with U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the truce fell short of what the U.S. had originally wanted, a blanket 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine had already agreed to.

Meanwhile, tensions escalated further as Ukraine launched a drone attack on a major Russian airfield, located about 700 km (435 miles) from the front lines. The attack caused a massive explosion and fire, as confirmed by both Russian and Ukrainian officials. Verified footage showed the blast wrecking nearby houses. Russia’s defense ministry claimed its air defenses had shot down 132 Ukrainian drones over various regions.

The targeted base, Engels, is a key site for Russia’s Tupolev Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers, also known as “White Swans.” Officials confirmed a Ukrainian drone attack in Engels, stating that an airfield was set ablaze and nearby residents had to be evacuated. However, he stopped short of mentioning whether the Engels airbase itself was hit.

What’s Next for Russia? And Who’s Bracing for Impact?
While the war continues, neighboring countries are growing increasingly anxious – especially the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These small states, which share borders with Russia, have long relied on their NATO membership for security. But with Trump’s unpredictable stance on U.S. military support, their sense of safety is wavering.

Trump has made it clear that Europe should no longer assume American military backing is a given, something that hasn’t happened since World War Two. That uncertainty has left the Baltics on edge. They were once part of the Soviet Union before it collapsed, and Putin has never been shy about his belief that they still belong in Russia’s sphere of influence.

So, if Russia claims victory in Ukraine, could Putin set his sights on the Baltics next, especially if he suspects that Trump wouldn’t step in to stop him? It’s a question that’s keeping many in the region up at night.

Russia’s Economy…

Many believe that even if a long-term ceasefire is eventually reached in Ukraine, it won’t necessarily mean an end to Russian aggression. European intelligence officials are increasingly saying that while it may not be imminent, conflict is no longer a distant possibility, in fact it could happen in three, five, or ten years.

Russia’s economy is now fully operating on a war footing. Nearly 40% of its federal budget is being allocated to defense and internal security, with much of the country’s resources funneled into military production.

Estonia Border, A Difficult Game

For Estonia, Russia’s presence is an ever-present concern, especially in the northern city of Narva, where the two countries are separated only by a narrow river. A medieval fortress on each side marks the divide, one flying the Russian flag, the other Estonian and between them stands a bridge, one of the last pedestrian crossings still open to Russia in Europe.

Estonian Border Police Chief Egert Belitsev says he is not surprised by Russia’s provocations and that the Russian threat is nothing new. Right now, tensions at the border are constant, with recorded incidents of Russian border guards removing buoys that mark the boundary under the cover of darkness.

Russia’s interference doesn’t stop there. The Estonian police rely on drones, helicopters, and aircraft for surveillance, all of which use GPS. However, they frequently encounter GPS jamming, making border patrol increasingly difficult.

On the Estonian side, a row of reinforced concrete anti-tank obstacles, known as dragon’s teeth, stands as a deterrent. While no one expects a large-scale tank invasion, Estonia fears that even a small military incursion could create significant instability.

The concern is heightened by Narva’s demographics, about 96% of the population are native Russian speakers, and many hold dual citizenship. Estonia fears that Putin could use the presence of a large ethnic Russian community as a pretext for intervention, a strategy he has previously employed in Georgia and Ukraine.

Reflecting these growing anxieties, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland announced this week that they are seeking parliamentary approval to withdraw from the international anti-personnel mine treaty. This move, they argue, would grant them “greater flexibility” in defending their borders. Lithuania has already withdrawn from a separate convention banning cluster bombs earlier this month.

What About Non-NATO Nations?

Camille Grand, former Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment at NATO, believes that if Russia were to make another move post-Ukraine, it would likely target a non-NATO country like Moldova. The reason is less risk of international retaliation compared to a direct confrontation with a NATO member.

Historically, the Baltic nations, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, were seen as particularly vulnerable due to their geographical isolation from NATO’s core members in Western Europe. However, with Sweden and Finland now part of NATO, that vulnerability has significantly diminished. As Grand puts it, “The Baltic Sea has become the NATO Sea.”

Many suggest that the biggest risk of conflict with Russia might come from miscalculation rather than an intentional strike. Even if peace is brokered in Ukraine, they expect Russia to continue cyber warfare, misinformation campaigns, sabotage, and espionage across Europe.

NATO, A United Front?

The question that is doing the rounds – if Putin were to consider further expansion, he would first weigh NATO’s willingness to respond. Would the U.S., France, Italy, or the UK risk war with nuclear-armed Russia over a small region like Narva in Estonia?

There’s also the concern of a repeat of Russia’s 2014 Donbas strategy, where paramilitary forces fought without official Russian military identification, giving Putin plausible deniability. In such a scenario, would NATO step in, or would hesitation create an opportunity for Russia?

A limited Russian incursion, even if indirect, could still cause major destabilization in the Baltics, discouraging foreign investment and shaking up the region’s political and economic stability.

Adding to the uncertainty is the potential shift in U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump. If he were to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe or even pull out altogether, it could significantly alter the balance of power in the region.

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing NATO’s collective defense principle: “We don’t know what the U.S. decision will be, but Europe must take more responsibility for itself. We have to believe in ourselves and trust our allies.”

He concludes with a question that weighs heavily on European leaders – “Are we together or not?”

Fortifying Against Russian Attack 

Poland recently declared that every adult man in the country must be battle-ready, with a new military training scheme set to be in place by the end of the year. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also shown interest in a French proposal to extend its nuclear umbrella to European allies, anticipating the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from its nuclear commitments.

In Estonia, the urgency is reflected in a new law mandating that all new office and apartment buildings above a certain size include bunkers or bomb shelters. Tallinn has also committed to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP next year, while Lithuania is eyeing an even more aggressive target of 5-6%.

Poland is set to allocate 4.7% of GDP to defense, aiming to build Europe’s largest army, surpassing even the UK and France. For comparison, the U.S. spends roughly 3.7% of GDP on defense, while the UK currently spends 2.3%, with plans to increase this to 2.6% by 2027.

Meanwhile, going a step further, with mixed signals from Washington, Estonia is forging closer ties with European allies. The UK, in particular, plays a crucial role in this strategy. Britain has stationed 900 personnel in Estonia, its largest permanent overseas deployment, and pledged to increase its presence.

In Tapa, a key NATO base, British forces are entrenched in vast hangars filled with armored vehicles and Challenger Main Battle Tanks.

A British squadron leader stationed in Estonia, emphasized the region’s importance, stating, “I think NATO at large feels exposed. This is a critical flank for our collective defense. Everyone in the Baltics and Eastern Europe is acutely aware of the clear and present threat posed by the Russian Federation.”

While NATO’s response to an attack remains a political decision, Estonia is preparing for all scenarios. The country has been stress-testing new army bunkers along its border with Russia and heavily investing in drone warfare capabilities. Though its armed forces alone could not repel a full-scale Russian invasion, Estonia has been studying lessons from Ukraine’s resistance, hoping it won’t have to put them to the test.

The Last Bit

In an era of geopolitical uncertainty, these nations are leaving nothing to chance. “Putin-proofing” may not be an official term, but it aptly captures the spirit of the sweeping defense initiatives being enacted across NATO’s eastern front even as the Russia-Ukraine Conundrum remains unsolved.