This week, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia as officials from Ukraine and the United States prepare for a crucial meeting aimed at finding a solution to the ongoing war with Russia.
But can a viable solution be reached, with tensions high and diplomatic relations strained, or will this just be another round of political posturing?
A Meeting of Big Bets
The meeting marks the first high-level engagement between the US and Ukraine since the explosive February 28 White House encounter between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump. That meeting, attended by Vice President JD Vance, quickly spiraled into a public feud, playing out in front of cameras for the world to see. Since then, relations have been anything but smooth, with Trump and Vance accusing Zelenskyy of warmongering and failing to appreciate US military assistance.
Now, Zelenskyy is set to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, followed by a crucial discussion on Tuesday between US and Ukrainian officials. On the Ukrainian side, key players such as Andriy Yermak (Zelenskyy’s chief of staff), Andrii Sybiha (minister of foreign affairs), and Rustem Umerov (minister of defense) will be present. The US delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will also include Trump’s Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
Why Saudi Arabia?
Jeddah, a port city on the Red Sea, has become a hotspot for diplomatic negotiations, and Saudi Arabia’s strategic ties with both Moscow and Kyiv make it an ideal mediator. With the kingdom having previously hosted multiple meetings on the Ukraine conflict, this latest round of discussions is seen as another attempt to bridge the widening gap between the warring sides.
What’s on the Table?
There are several key issues expected to dominate the discussions –
Ceasefire and Confidence-Building Measures – Zelenskyy has outlined potential peace terms, including the release of prisoners and an agreement to halt missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure. A temporary truce could serve as a confidence-building step, but whether Russia will reciprocate remains a major question.
US-Ukraine Military and Intelligence Cooperation – Following the suspension of US military and intelligence support to Ukraine after the February fallout, one major discussion point will be whether the US is willing to reinstate this crucial assistance. Trump has hinted that the suspension could be lifted, but nothing is set in stone yet.
The Controversial Minerals Deal – A significant but often overlooked topic in these talks is the potential agreement between the US and Ukraine on critical minerals, particularly rare earth minerals. The deal was supposed to be signed during Zelenskyy’s previous White House visit but was left hanging. While Ukraine is eager to proceed, Trump has been more hesitant, suggesting that Ukraine needs to demonstrate a stronger commitment to peace before any economic agreement moves forward.
Russia’s Next Move – While Ukraine continues to resist Russian advances, the reality is that Russia still controls around a fifth of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Trump’s recent comments suggest he believes neither side can achieve a decisive military victory anytime soon. Instead, he has hinted at a mysterious “different way” – one that only he supposedly knows – to end the conflict.
Saudi Arabia’s Role in Mediation
Saudi Arabia has been positioning itself as a diplomatic middleman since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The kingdom has played a part in brokering prisoner exchanges and even hosted secretive talks last month between Moscow and Washington. Now, with Zelenskyy in town, Riyadh is once again stepping into the spotlight as it pushes for a resolution to the ongoing conflict.
According to the Saudi state news agency SPA, the crown prince reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting international efforts for peace in Ukraine. While that sounds diplomatic, the reality is that peace in Ukraine has been an elusive goal, with both sides deeply entrenched in their positions.
High Hopes, But Realistic Expectations
Tuesday’s meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. officials marks their first formal dialogue since the now-infamous White House confrontation between Zelenskyy and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been setting expectations high, stating that the goal of the Jeddah talks is to establish a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire. However, history suggests that any ceasefire or peace deal will face enormous hurdles, especially given Moscow’s hardened stance.
The Proposal on the Table
Zelenskyy’s approach to negotiations includes a proposed truce in the air and at sea, along with a large-scale prisoner exchange. He sees these steps as a way to test Russia’s sincerity about ending the war.
However, Moscow has already dismissed the idea, labeling it a strategic ploy to buy time for Ukraine’s military. Russia has also rejected similar proposals from Britain and France, showing little inclination for any pause in hostilities.
The Reality on the Battlefield
Even as diplomacy plays out in Jeddah, the war rages on. Russia has intensified its missile and drone attacks, launching over 1,200 guided bombs, nearly 870 attack drones, and more than 80 missiles in just the past week, according to Zelenskyy.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s forces are struggling to hold their ground with Russia controlling about 20% of Ukraine’s territory – including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014 – Moscow is pressing further into the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukraine is now facing mounting pressure on the battlefield and is even bracing for potential retreats from key areas.
The Last Bit. Will This Meeting Make a Difference?
With neither side showing signs of backing down, the Saudi-hosted talks may not bring an immediate resolution, with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pushing for stronger security guarantees and Trump playing a wait-and-see game, the outcome of this meeting remains uncertain. But they could lay the groundwork for future negotiations.
Will this be a turning point, or just another round of political maneuvering, the world will know soon enough!
