By: Ishan Singh
Even in the 21st century, the world is still battling many challenges such as climate change, poverty, and pandemics, but one of the biggest threats to human survival has been nuclear weapons. Saving countless lives of innocent human beings and building a world free from the threats of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is the real idea of nuclear disarmament in the 21st century. Humanity’s best gift to the next generation is a nuclear-weapons-free world.
This blog explores the current happenings in the issue of nuclear disarmament and the major challenges that make progress lag in the world today. Indeed, as this blog topic presumes, we will venture beyond the simple questions relating to nuclear disarmament in the 21st century, the barriers to disarmament today, and how we can move toward a more peaceful and secure world.
Global Landscape of Nuclear Disarmament
During the initial phase of the nuclear era, nuclear weapons were adapted for a broad variety of delivery systems: artillery systems, land, air, and sea-based missiles of various ranges, as well as carrier-based and land-based aircraft. The Soviet Union had even developed nuclear landmines. Till the 1970s, important force categories of the US and Soviet Union had become less dependent on conventional warfare due to the widespread substitution of nuclear weapons for conventional weapons.
The current nuclear power list adds up to nine countries: ‘The United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.’ The global nuclear stockpile in total comes close to 13,000 weapons which even though is much lower than what it used to be during Cold War but is still well enough to pose a very huge threat to humanity.
The current world scenario is dominated by the United States and Russia, accounting for more than 9/10th of the world’s nuclear arsenal. They are currently modernizing their arsenals while also participating in arms reduction treaties, like New START, that further decreased and limited the long-range nuclear weapons of both USA and Russia. Other countries such as China, India, and Pakistan are either expanding their arms inventories or acquiring fresh weapon systems considering the regional security conditions. Since, India has its border disputes with Pakistan and China it has no choice but to carry on the work of developing its defence projects. As a matter of fact, though the UK and France have arsenals that are relatively stable, they have pressures to improve their deterrent capabilities subsequent to the changes in threats. Since 2006, the North Korean regime has steadily tried to increased its nuclear capability with frequently occurring tests causing. There are some concerns about the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program too.
Several key international agreements deal with nuclear disarmament, including the Treaty on the ‘Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT)’, which intends to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, and the ‘Treaty on the Prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPNW)’, which seeks to completely ban these weapons. The ‘Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)’ prohibits nuclear test explosions, but it has yet to enter into force because some key states have not ratified it.
Modern Disarmament Efforts
Arms control initiatives have transformed dramatically in recent years, especially in the context of US-Russian relations. A new START treaty came into force in 2011 and was extended for a further five years in February 2021, it thus provides a necessary framework to limit the deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 each for the two nations. Although both United States and Russia, even in the wake of mounting tensions fuelled by geopolitics, had refused to pull out of the treaty in its entirety till its expiration in February 2026, there’s increasingly less hope about arms control after Russia suspended it altogether in 2023 amidst its invasion of Ukraine.
Critical bilateral and multilateral treaties that prevent nuclear proliferation and serve as the roadmap for the destruction of nuclear arsenals include the ‘Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons (NPT)’ and the ‘Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)’. Agreement on compliance with these treaties is almost impossible, considering the reality that nuclear-armed states have been and are still trying to increase their stockpiles. Direct diplomacy between nuclear-armed states remains an important part of trust building, cooperation enhancement, and stockpile reduction.
Challenges to Nuclear Disarmament
Various nuclear states have waged high-intensity rivalries during the twenty-first century that presented many major problems for nuclear disarmament efforts. Most notably, the United States-Russia relationship has continued to deteriorate since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has led to the suspension of key arms control treaties, most notably the New START treaty.
Meanwhile, tensions between the United States and China are increasingly rising since China is rapidly modernizing its nuclear arsenal to catch up with that of the United States, giving it an arms race mentality. In South Asia, the long-standing hostility between India and Pakistan has remained unresolved, caused by territorial disputes and military buildups, this rivalry can increase the chances of nuclear escalation in future conflicts. North Korea’s continued development of nuclear arms, however, does pose a global security threat complicating the disarmament dialogue because their government continues to test missiles even after being subjected to international sanctions.
Advances in technology, for their part, have also posed a major hurdle to the process of nuclear disarmament. The emergence of hypersonic missiles has become a nightmare for traditional deterrence strategies since the high speed at which it travels presents the challenge to be detected even by an early warning system, thus being a cause of uncertainty and a likelihood to be miscalculated or to have a false launch.
In the same way, while artificial intelligence is being integrated with armed forces systems, it boosts the capabilities of such forces in operations and leads to less human loss due to wars, but decision-making in nuclear operations is a big concern as of now. AI’s potential for errors may result in unintended nuclear escalation during crises. The AI system would misidentify a common civilian carrying arms for self-defence as an army personnel. The increase in the threats of cybersecurity increases vulnerability to the nuclear command and control systems. This is a cause of worry relating to unauthorized entry and a chance of devastating effects if cyber criminals were successful.
Steps taken towards Disarmament and way forward
The United Nations has time and again claimed that nuclear disarmament has to play the key role in the promotion of global peace and security. The UN Secretariat plays an important role in regulating nuclear proliferation while at the same time leading towards the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. “Securing Our Common Future: An Agenda for Disarmament” underlines the UN agenda, which advocates for dialogue and negotiation between nuclear states by encouraging risk-reduction measures and transparency in nuclear weapon programs. The first UN resolution in 1946 created a Commission to manage atomic energy control. It also showed a commitment to using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and to disarmament. The UN also played an important part in establishing several multilateral treaties aimed at achieving nuclear disarmament, such as the NPT, CTBT, and TPNW.
The ‘International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’ also plays a key role in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts. It does this mainly through its safeguards system, which makes sure that civilian nuclear programs are not used for military purposes. The Agency checks international agreements, promoting transparency and building trust between countries. Some regional organizations and initiatives, such as ASEAN and the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, are also working to establish nuclear-free zones to help reach global disarmament goals.
Balancing security and disarmament are a significant challenge for nations. They want to reduce their arsenals without jeopardizing their national security. New diplomatic methods, like phased disarmament with mutual verification and transparency, can help build trust among nations. These methods can include confidence-building actions, such as joint military exercises and sharing information. The goal is to lower tensions and create genuine opportunities for negotiation.
Conclusion
Nuclear disarmament is in every sense of the term mandatory, especially for the new century, for the fact that the mere presence of nuclear weapons becomes a serious threat to their existence but a greater threat to human race in general. With the rise of geopolitical tensions and new technological capabilities emerge, the risks of nuclear proliferation are also increasing. To stop this, world leaders and citizens must recognize that working together through diplomacy, cooperation, and significant peacebuilding projects is crucial for nuclear disarmament.
The need for nuclear disarmament is more pressing today than in the past. The existence of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to humanity. Growing geopolitical tensions and emerging technologies increase the risks of nuclear spread. It is crucial for world leaders and citizens to understand the importance of working together through diplomacy, cooperation, and strong peacebuilding efforts.
This means that nuclear disarmament in the twenty-first century should be even more urgent. The threat these weapons pose to human existence is significant. The escalating tensions create a serious potential for risks that could lead to global nuclear spread, which in turn threatens peace and global security. World leaders should recognize the need for coordinated efforts to address this issue through actions like international diplomacy, cooperation, and effective peace building.
It would require global cooperation to build trust among nations, to make disarmament talks meaningful, and to ensure a nuclear weapon-free world for future generations. The path to complete disarmament needs constant dedication and collaboration in dismantling the systems that support nuclear deterrence. This approach puts humanity first and safeguards our world.
